Model Analysis Conclusions & Future Work

Sensitivity Analysis

Context Analysis

Solar Energy Gap

Now: Traditional electricity distribution with net metering

Risk of NOVEC failing to identify the effects solar energy in their system

Risk of NOVEC failing to identify if changes in the current business model

Potential: Solar Energy Integration to utility company customers

Method of Analysis

Business Model Results

Problem and Need Statement

Problem StatementAs solar penetration levels rise in Virginia, NOVEC will begin to lose

revenue from the loss of traditional energy being distributed.

Need Statement There is a need to analyze the effects of increasing amounts of solar

energy users in NOVEC’s distribution network on their current business

model. Furthermore, there is a need to identify the feasibility of new

business models that incorporate solar energy into their distribution network.

How does Solar effect NOVEC and it’s CustomersPotential Solar Outputs for a Average and Optimal Homes

Stakeholder Analysis

Do Nothing

(NOVEC maintains their current

power distribution system)

OR

Current Environment in Virginia

Solar Penetration in Virginia is currently at 0.1% for Residential solar

• On the Rise

Average cost of Solar is estimated to be $0.12 cents per kWh

• On the Decline

Average cost of Electricity for NOVEC Residence is $0.13 per kWh

• On the Rise

• Esri ArcGIS 10.4

• Combined Loudoun County

(2016) Vector data and raster

images with NOVEC service

regions and address points

• Solar Factors: Surface Area of

Roof, Shading, Weather/Time

of Year, Radiation in Region,

Angle/Slope

Geospatial Information System Model

• Image of Loudoun County

(2016)

• ~1600 Rooftops analyzed in

model (.1% of Serviced Homes)

Model Information

Data in GIS

DESIGN AND PROPOSAL OF SOLAR PANEL INTEGRATION IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA POWER

DISTRIBUTION

Michael Ham, Billy Mudd, Ramona Rubalcava, Shakib Vafaei

System Engineering & Operations Research at George Mason University

Sponsored by: Center for Air Transportation Systems Research (CATSR)

• Homes that go Solar will want

maximum benefit

Total Solar Produced = 9200

kWh/year

Total % of Energy by Solar = 69%

Net metered Energy = 970 kWh/year

Net Metering: April, May, June

Optimal NOVEC Homes (~6%-10%)

Figure Solar Potential Image in July

• Average Home offsets about 50% of energy

Optimal Customer Savings

as of 2018 over 20 Yrs.

Customer Savings as of 2023

Conservative Solar Growth Effects on

NOVEC

Aggressive Solar Growth Effects on NOVEC

Optimal Home has 14 Yr. ROI with a $10,000 Profit

Optimal Home has 10 Yr. ROI with $27,000 Profit

Sensitivity of Cost Factors onto NOVEC & Customers

• Most Important Factors are

Electricity, Solar Produced by

roof, and Solar Panel Costs

• Based on a small survey, NOVEC

customers want to profit ~$10k

over 20 years to go solar

• ~10% of homes reach this criteria

• Be careful when electricity prices

reach $0.18 & Solar Production

for homes reaches ~9200 kWh

yearly

Final Results and Recommendations• At 1% Solar Penetration NOVEC’s current plan will lead to a net loss of $31million

• At 15% Solar Penetration NOVEC’s current plan will lead to a net loss of $570million

• Selling Solar panels (2) can offset 45-55% of these losses

• NOVEC as of NOW should continue to NOT sell solar energy, but be prepared to

increase electricity costs as solar penetration rises

• Be Prepared to Re-evaluate in 5 years with government changes

• NOVEC should survey current customers about when they would switch to solar

Net Loss for NOVEC