Dependency ratio: economically inactive pop ( children & OAP) compared to economically active pop.(working)

Dependents______ X 100

Economically active 1

Ireland = 46.67

In developing countries it can be as high 100

Age & sex structures of pop shown in pyramids….

*Show past changes & predict future trends.

*Forecast social needs like schools & hospitals.

*Show effects of migration, war and famine

Sex structure… less than 90 or over 110 men for every 100 women is distinctly unbalanced.

Varies within age groups… death rates higher in all groups amongst men.

Irregularities due to out migration, war -- knock on effect

for “baby boom” or into later years on pop pyramid

Dependency Ratio

Large young pop…. EG developing world 36% under 15…. Huge buying power.

Large families put strain on family income… educ, clothes & food… find it hard to save

Large old pop….. Social impact.. Tax burden & services like health, educ can suffer. EG India 86 million over 60.

Case study: Japan

In 1920’s Japan moved through stages 2 and 3 caused by baby boom after 2 world wars

1950 Japan developed and pop growth slowed

2011 BR is 1.3 well below sustainable level of 2.1

Initiatives and allowances to encourage bigger families despite its huge pop.

Percentages

Older people increasing and young people decreasingBy 2025 26% of pop over 65 compared with 12% in 1990.

One of most populous countries in world @ 830 per sq km

(phsyiologic density would be 3,070)

Birth rate in decline… cost of caring for older pop huge…

Japan ‘greying’ population

Effect can be lessened by:

Postpone retirement

Encourage inward migration from Philippines

Ireland… Pop patterns… changes over time.Density 51 per km sq. Up to 1926… 3m pop, mainly rural. High pop. density in west.1926-50 stable pop under 3 m1950’s rapid fall to 2.8m… unemploy & emigration.Today 4.1m… due to emigration patterns, increased birth rates & improved economy. Age structure: 15 to 39 age group effected by emigration… reflected in pop pyramid & carried from 1960’s. This reduced the potential for natural increase as childbearing pop left Irl.

2002… less children & so increasingly older pop…. Future effect on pop as lack of potential childbearing women.

Age structure effected by birth, death & migration.

Decline in birth rate since 1980

Average age: 1981…. 30.8 yrs 1996… 33.6yrs

2040… 40 yrs an ageing pop.

Fertility: 1960 to 1980 overall increase

1980 to 1994 sharp decline

Rise since 1994 but this is temporary and overall a decrease in birth rates is likely due to:

*Family planning * Women in the workforce *Education

Mortality: 1996 life expectancy for men 73 : women 78.7

*Improved living condition * medicine (immunization)

Life expectancy will continue to improve.

Dependency Ratio: Influenced by birth, death and emigration.

Migration in 1950’s & 1960’s in 15 to 44 yr age group meant fewer of working age and so we had a high dependency rate… supporting old age and children.

Since 1980 constant decline in dependency rate…

•Fall in birth rate and slight decrease in over 65 age groups. Result …. More people working.

•Immigration… in-migration increasing working pop.

•Working students…. Huge rise in part-time work

• Women…. Dramatic increase in workforce

Off set by early retirement but this will be eased by personal pension & govt. pensions fund.