PRESENTATION TITLE

Presented by:

Name Surname

Directorate

Date

DEPARTMENT OF WATER AND SANITATION

Water Resource Planning and Management For Water

Security in South Africa

Presented at the

WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS – TOWARDS EFFICIENT

NATIONAL PLANNING DISCUSSION FORUM

Amanzingwe Lodge & Conference Centre, Broederstroom, Hartbeespoort

23-24 October 2018

Patrick MliloDirector: National Water Resource PlanningDepartment of Water and Sanitation

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

• South Africa in context• Characteristics of South Africa’s water

resources• Water resource planning• Key demand centres and water balances• Water and Energy• Water and Food• Ensuring water security• Conclusions and Recommendations

SOUTH AFRICA IN CONTEXT

Key Message• Demographics, socio-economics show that

South Africa has high inequality

• Water is a vehicle towards achieving equality

SOUTH AFRICA SOCIO_ECONOMICS

Population Ranking

• 2018 estimate 57,725,600 24

• 2011 census 51,770,560

• Density 42.4/km2

169

GDP (PPP) 2018 estimate

• Total $742.461 billion 30

• Per capita $13,591 90

GDP (nominal) 2018 estimate

• Total $326.541 billion 35

• Per capita $6,292 88

Gini (2009) 63.1 very high

HDI (2014) 0.666 116 medium

SOUTH AFRICA - POPULATION PYRAMID

GINI COEFFICIENT

GINI Extremes GINI Coefficient SA vs BRIC

South Africa must address challenges of

• Inequality

• Unemployment

• Poverty

NATIONAL WATER RESOURCE STRATEGY

NEW PARADIGM

DRIVERS

SDGs, NDP, NWRS, NRRSS, Legislation, Climate Change and others

2063

GOAL

Affordable and reliable access to sufficient and safe water and hygienic sanitation for socio-economic well-

being with due regard to the environment

E

N

A

B

L

E

R

S

Governance

Finance

Legislation

Communication Research & Innovation

Skills & Capacity Building

Wate

r

Reso

urc

es

Wate

r

Su

pp

ly

Wate

r

Qu

ali

ty

San

itati

on

Wate

r E

co

-

Pro

tecti

on

Equity and Access

Water and Climate

Resilience

Operations & Maintenance

Revival

Water security

Water Requirements Monitoring

MACRO PLANNING – END GOAL

CHARACTERISTICS OF SOUTH AFRICA’S WATER RESOURCES

Key Message• Scarcity and variability drive planning imperatives

• Other sources of water must be explored to meet

requirements

SOUTH AFRICAN - CHARACTERISTICS OF WATER RESOURCES

1. Water scarcity

2. Uneven temporal and spatial distribution

3. Internationally shared surface and ground water

4. Pollution of water resources from agricultural runoff and urban discharge

5. Highly regulated water resources

6. High competition among users

7. Transitioning to a mature phase of development

1. SOUTH AFRICA – A WATER SCARCE COUNTRY

11

50 000 000 000

11 750 000 000

89 246 880 000

107 979 264 000

301 799 520 000

1 292 976 000 000

- 500 000 000 000 1 000 000 000 000 1 500 000 000 000

South Africa (incl SD and Ls)

Orange river

Nile river

Zambezi river

Niger river

Congo river

Total mean annual flowsWater scarcity in SA

could deteriorate

further as the supply

contracts and demand

escalates due to

growth, urbanization,

inefficient use,

degradation of

wetlands, water

losses and reduction

in yield due to climate

change

WATER STRESS BY COUNTRY

2013 2040

SA’s Mean Annual Precipitation is 465 mm vs world average of 860 mm

SOUTH AFRICA – SURFACE WATER RESOURCES

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION SURFACE WATER NUMBERS

SOUTH AFRICA - GROUNDWATER RESOURCES

Mean annual potential recharge

21,100 m3/annum

Mean annual contribution to rivers

4,800 m3/annum

Utilisablegroundwater exploration potential

7,500 m3/annum

Current use 3,000 m3/annum

2. UNEVEN DISTRIBUTION INSPACE AND IN TIME

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTIONSOUTH AFRICA AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMP AND RAINFALL (1901-2015)

25-Oct-18

16

15 17 20 41

69

9382 77

40 30 14 17

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Western Cape Rainfall Patterne.g. City of Cape Town -

Average precipitation (mm)

3. INTERNATIONALLY SHARED BASINS:

• 4 rivers shared with

6 neighbouring

countries

• basins cover 60 % of

SA land area

• Contribute 45% of

country's total river

flow

• support ± 70% of

gross domestic

product

• UN Convention on

Non-Navigable

Rivers

• SADC Protocol on

Shared Water

Courses

18

4. INCREASING POLLUTION THREATS

Country overview drivers

5. HIGHLY REGULATED WATER INFRASTRUCTURE

• South Africa has relatively well developed water resources and water services infrastructure.– Water gauging and monitoring networks, dams, canals, bulk

conveyance pipelines and pumping schemes, municipal distribution networks, groundwater well-fields, water re-use plants, and flood protection schemes.

• There are more than 4,395 registered dams

• 794 are considered large dams (i.e. dams with a wall height ≥15m, or a wall height 5m to 15m and a storage capacity exceeding 3 million m3).

• The combined storage capacity of large dams is in the order of

31 000 million m3.

INFRASTRUCTURE - LARGE DAMS

JOZINI DAM (1973)

CAPACITY : 2,445,900,000

Pongola River

Double Curvature Concrete Arch

VAAL DAM (1938)

CAPACITY: 2,536,000,000

Vaal River

Concrete Gravity and Earth Fill

STERKFONTEIN DAM (1980)

CAPACITY: 2,616,000,000

Nuwejaar Spruit

Earth FillVAN DER KLOOF DAM (1977)

CAPACITY: 3,187,557,000

Orange River

Double Curvature Concrete Arch

GARIEP DAM (1971)

CAPACITY: 5,342,932,000

Orange River

Double Curvature Concrete Arch

6. COMPETITION ACROSS WATER USE SECTORS

66%

27%

7%Indicative figures

Water Source Mix

(DWS, 2013):

77% Surface Water

9 % Return Flows

14% Ground Water

22

7. TRANSITIONING TO A MATUREPHASE OF DEVELOPMENT

EXPANSIONARY vsCharacteristic Expansionary phase Mature phase

Long run supply of impounded water

Elastic Inelastic

Demand for delivered water

Low, but growing; elastic at low prices, inelastic at high prices

High and growing; elastic at low prices, inelastic at high prices

Physical condition of impoundment and delivery systems

Most is fairly new and in good condition

A substantial proportion is aging and in need of expensive repair and renovation

Competition for water among agricultural, industrial and urban uses, and in-stream flow maintenance

Minimal Intense

Externality, etc., problems

Minimal Pressing: rising water tables, land salinisation, saline return flows, groundwater salinisation, water pollution, etc.

Social cost of subsidising increased water use

Fairly low High, and rising

POLICY RESPONSES TO THE PHASE OF WATER DEVELOPMENT

• Generating revenues to finance new developments and the rehabilitation of aging projects;

• Dampening growth in the quantity of water demanded across different sectors;– Water Conservation/ Water Demand Management

• Directing the reallocation of water in response to emerging patterns of absolute and relative scarcity, externality and similar problems,

• Resilient conflict resolution mechanisms

HOW DO WE RESPOND TO THE CHARACTERISTICSOF WATER RESOURCES IN SA?

Characteristic Response

1. Water scarcity • Expand water mix• Storing of water and underground, access aquifers, re-use,

desalination

2. Uneven spatial and temporal distribution

• Storage• Water must be transferred to were it is required

3. International sharing of water • Regulation – Protocols on water sharing with co-basin states

4. Weather extremes (floods and droughts)

• Storage, balancing facilities, flood control

5. Water quality deterioration • Regulation

6. Condition of water infrastructure

• Innovative funding models • Revenue collection from water

7. Lack of water information • Investment in hydrological monitoring

8. Governance • Strengthen Policy, legal and institutional framework

9. Competition for use • Regulation regimes to balance competing interests

26

EFFECTIVE COORDINATED GOVERNANCE

Water Sector Role Players

• Water Boards

• Catchment Management Agencies

• Water User Associations

• Water Research Commission & Univ.

• Water Service Authorities

• Private Sector

• Planning & design consultants

• Project managers & IA

• Banks & financial management

• Construction contractors

• Equipment manufacturers

• etc.

12 Water Boards

152 WSAs

9 WMAs

98 WUAs

WATER RESOURCE PLANNING

IMPORTANCE OF PLANNING

• Ensures that water that is fit for use is available for settlements, industries and agriculture at all scales, at adequate assurances of supply

• Optimises utilisation of available resources

• Better positioning – Reduces uncertainty of future events

• Continuous adaptation to changing circumstances is required

• Policies must recognise the unique characteristics of WRD&M and reduce the risks for investment in long term projects

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT

Key Message• Different policy responses required for the changing

context of South African water resources

management

• Water resource planning tends to respond to energy

and food production

WATER PLANNING HAS COMMON CHARACTERISTICS WITH ENERGY AND FOOD

No Characteristic Water Energy Food

1 High risk, long lead times from project identification, development to ) operation (10 -20 yrs)

Yes yes yes

2 Very capital intensive, with large upfront costs Yes yes yes

3 Low levels of capital redemption over long periods Yes yes mediu

4 Not attractive for private equity investment yes No Yes/no

5 Infrastructure service life is very long yes yes yes

6 Once built, are difficult to change and retrofit for other uses

yes yes yes

7 Resources are geographically captured Yes Sun, water, coal

Land, soils, climate

8 Requires access costly competitive and efficient infrastructure for distribution

Yes Yes Yes

UNCERTAINTY IN PLANNING

COMPLIMENTARITIES AND LINKAGES ACROSS THE WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS

• Water infrastructure is used in energy generation

• Water used for hydro power generation returned to stream for further use in irrigation for food production

• Power used for running irrigation pumps

• Crops like sugarcane used in for renewable power generation – Biomass

• It is important to coordinate planning to harness the synergies and plan for them

• Co-location of renewables energy plants with desalination plants

WATER RESOURCE PLANNING PROCESS

NWRP

• Develops national strategies and procedures for the reconciliation of water availability and requirements to meet:

OPTIONS ANALYSIS

• Conducts Feasibility studies on the various options develop in NWRP

NWRI

CONSTRUCTION

NWRI or Entities

(TCTA, Water Boards)

• Financing

• Construction

ASSET OPERATION

33

RECONCILIATION STRATEGY STUDIES

• Develop future water requirement scenarios in consultation with users

• Investigate all possible water resources and other interventions

• Investigate all possible methods for reconciling the requirements with the available resources

• Make recommendations for development and implementation of interventions

• These reconciliation strategies are available on http://www.dwa.gov.za/projects.aspx

PLANNING PROCESS

PLANNING

WATER RESOURCES ASSESSMENT

Resource capability

Resource assurance

Water quality

User criteria

WATER DEMANDS ANALYSIS

Population and Demographics

Economic growth scenarios

Water Requirement Projections (scenarios)

RECONCILIATIONS /BALANCE

STRATEGIES

Water Balance

Reconciliation Options

Strategies

Water Supply Infrastructure

IMPLEMENTATION OF STRATEGIES

System behaviour

Water requirements

Impact initiatives/ interventions

Water quality objectives

Clim

ate

change

Clim

ate

change

WATER BALANCE STUDIESWater uses

1. Power

generation

2. Food

production

3. Drinking

water

4. Industrial

processes

5. Recreational

use

6. Extractive

industries

11/01/2017 36

Option1

Option2

Option n

Strategic

Choice

Data CollectionHydrology

Soils

Water

Social

Existing Infrastructure

Report

Implemention

System Operation

Water resource

development and

management

options

Structural

interventions

Management and

land care

Governance

GENERIC WATER RESOURCE STRATEGIC OPTIONS

Management

• WC/WDM

• Improving water use efficiency

• Reallocation

• Reduction of assurance of supply

Governance

• Policy, legal and institutional frameworks –overlaps, etc

• Capacity building

• Funding arrangements

• Pricing of water

Land care

• Catchment rehabilitation and improvement

• Removal of invasive alien species

• Eradication of unlawful water use

Structural or supply side

• New water infrastructure - (Surface and groundwater)

• Rehabilitation of water infrastructure (Surface and groundwater)

• Transfer schemes

• Re-use of water

• Desalination of brackish water

• Rain water harvesting

EXAMPLE: MGENI RIVER SYSTEM

SOUTH AFRICA-KEY WATER DEMAND CENTRES

Key Message• Wide options

considered in

focused planning to

meet water needs

for different sectors

at local level

Existing Transfer Schemes

Proposed Transfer Schemes Mokolo Catchment

Crocodile CatchmentVaal Catchment

INTEGRATED VAAL RIVER SYSTEM

Transfers relevant to VRESS

Vaal Gamagara

Transfer Scheme

Vaalharts

Iirrigation

Scheme

Sedibeng

Water

Midvaal

Water

Lephalale

Rand Water

Lephalale

LHWP#1

Tuhkela-Vaal

Transfer Scheme

Zaaihoek

Transfer

Scheme

Heyshope

Transfer

Scheme

Sasol

Upper Olifants

Mainly Power Stations

Komati-Olifants

41

42

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Yie

ld /

Wat

er

Re

qu

ire

me

nts

(m

illio

n m

3/a

)RECONCILIATION SCENARIO

High Water Requirement Scenario withWater Conservation and Demand Management & Re-use

First transfer from LHWP Phase II

High with target WC/WDM Desalination of Mine Water Unlawful removed Re-use 80% of surplus yield in the Crocodile West River System

System Yield

Polihali Dam Yield

Desalinate AMD

AMD reuse Yield increases due toremoval of dilution releases

43

WATER AND ENERGY

History➢ Coal has traditionally dominated the energy

supply sector in South Africa, from about 1880 when coal from Vereeniging was supplied to the Kimberly diamond fields.

➢ Presently, 77% of SA’s primary energy needs are provided by coal.

➢ The Government Gazette of 6 March 1923 announced the establishment of The Electricity Supply Commission (Escom), from 1 March 1923

➢ The first hydro station in the Sabie River came into commercial operation in mid-1927

➢ Hendrik Verwoerd (re-named Gariep) hydro power station started feeding into Eskom’s transmission system in 1971

➢ Vanderkloof, a similar hydro power station, was commissioned in 1977 as another feature of the Orange River Project

-Key Message• Consider IRP for future water planning

ENERGY TARGETS

➢ DoE has set targets to achieve on the energy mix of the country, including nuclear, fossil, and renewable

➢ The White Paper on Renewable Energy (2003) set a target of 10 000 GWh of energy to be produced from renewable energy sources (biomass, wind, solar and small-scale hydro) by 2013.

➢ The DoE proceeded with the development of its renewable energy strategy. Achieving this target;➢ Adds about 1.667MW new renewable energy capacity, with a net

impact on GDP as high as R1.071-billion a year;

➢ Creates additional government revenues of R299-million;

➢ Stimulates additional income that will flow to low-income households by as much as R128-million, creating just over 20 000 new jobs;

➢ Contributes to water savings of 16.5-million m3

INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN 2018

• Electricity consumption declining

• 4 scenarios and their impact on future energy mix considered;

– Electricity demand scenario, a gas scenario, a renewables scenario and an emissions constrain scenario.

• The pace and scale of new capacity developments needs to be curtailed compared to IRP 2010 projections.

• The least cost plan relates to PV, wind and gas only - some new technologies will not be deployed as projected in IRP 2010.

• Annual build limits on renewables will not impact the total installed capacity of renewable energy technology leading up to 2030.

• The energy mix for 2030 sees the decommissioning of coal power fleet reaching the end of their life as we transition to low carbon economy.

• No additional nuclear

FUTURE ENERGY MIX AND WATER

• Elements of various strategies are incorporated in the reconciliation strategies at local level

• Informed by the IRP

• Key questions raised by the IRP

– MCWAP – improves the assurance of supply for Matimbaand Medupi, which rely on surface water;

– Proposed imports - Inga Power Imports

– Hydropower using DWS infrastructure

TYPES OF RENEWABLE ENERGY

• Solar Energy• Photovoltaics

• Solar therma

• Biomass Resources• wood, charcoal animal and

human waste

• Energy crops – forestry,

• Liquid conversions

• Biogas conversions

• Hydropower

• Wind Resources

• Ocean ResourcesWind Resources

Solar Energy

HYDROPOWER

• New infrastructure

• Existing DWA infrastructure

– Limited potential

– Preliminary studies have been done on 28 sites in the country on existing dams

– Ranges from 1-3 MW

– Subject to PPP arrangements

2018/10/25 50

PUMPED STORAGE TECHNOLOGY

90 sites – to 7 sites that became 3 sites

WATER AND FOOD – KEY CONSIDERATIONS

Irrigation strategy

• Take account of agricultural, mechanisation and irrigation strategies to meet food and agricultural production requirements

• Water tariffs – food vsbiomass production

• Use of localized resources like aquifers

• Diffuse pollution from agricultural lands

Productivity in Irrigation

Key Message• Growth in water use in agriculture will come

from savings within the sector

DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OF IRRIGATION AREAS

Province Potential (hectares)

Eastern Cape 7 604

Free State 3 000

Gauteng -

Kwazulu Natal 10 000

Limpopo -

Mpumalanga 3 000

Northern Cape 5 000

North West 1 259

Western Cape 5 000

Total 34 683

52

• NDP indicates that

irrigation can be

expanded by 500

000ha but the

NWRS2 states that

water is available

only for expansion

of 80 000 ha. DAFF

calculations are

shown in table

• Water for expansion

of irrigated

agriculture will

come from savings

within the sector

14%

29%

26%

31%Flood

Moving

Micro

Sprinkler

Source: WARMS 2014, DWS

Total irrigated area =1,6 Mha

Flood

Moving

Micro

Sprinkler

IRRIGATION SYSTEMS IN SOUTH AFRICA

IRRIGATION SCHEMES

47 schemes

6 553 km canals

21 286 structures

Large potential savings

of water achievable with

improved system

operation and upgrade

of infrastructure

HOW TO MEET FOOD DEMANDS

Food production strategies• Expand rainfed lands- Reclamation of soils

and prevent/ reduce erosion• Increasing water productivity and upgrade

rain fed areas by enhancing management of rainwater

• Increasing annual irrigation water suppliesby developing new surface water storage facilities and increasing groundwater withdrawals and use of wastewater

• Increasing water productivity in irrigated areas and value per output of water by integrating livestock and fisheries in irrigated systems

• Agricultural trade• Reduce food demand (influencing diets,

reducing post harvest losses, industrial and household waste)

Managing competition??

THE NEXUS – ENSURING WATER SECURITY

Key Message• Consider the strategies and coordinate planning across

water, energy and food sectors

BROAD INTERVENTIONS

57

No Program Name Description/ outcomes Current status Gap

1 Broaden the water

resources supply mix

Include other non-traditional water

resources such as desalination, water

re-use and rainwater harvesting

Inroads towards

desalination and reuse

Inadequate research and

development for cheap

technologies for

harnessing and creating

new water

2 Water conservation and

water demand

management across water

use sectors

Improving water use efficiency, keep

water losses within acceptable level

and reduce non-revenue water.

Major water supply

distribution systems

attrition

Implementation plans

and enforcement

3 Develop remaining surface

and groundwater potential

and use conjunctively

Elevating the importance of

groundwater as a reliable and effective

source in areas where surface water is

limited.

GW not yet genuinely

considered as a reliable

source of water by Water

Services Authorities

Insufficient knowledge

about ground water.

Potential 4,500 million

m3/a

4 Water transfers across

political and international

boundaries

Water transfer schemes from water-

rich to water-poor areas for increased

resilience to the vagaries of variability

of rainfall in space and time, and

mitigating effects of climate change

International agreement

in place

Agreements not in place

for source areas like

Zimbabwe

5 Strengthen and improve

water measuring and

monitoring network

Wider network of rainfall, runoff and

groundwater measurement

infrastructure and monitoring to

improve knowledge of water

availability and climate trends

Deteriorating and slow

expansion of the

monitoring and

measuring networks.

Infrastructure not enough

to support the required

data resolution

WATER REQUIREMENTS AND AVAILABILITY (FUTURE TRENDS)

Water AvailabilityMix(2000)

Mid Term 2025 Long Term 2040

Time

Acid mine drainage

Desalination

Return flows (irrigationtreated effuent)

Groundwater

Surface water

Water Requirements withWC/WDM

Water requirementswithout WC/WDM

58

DIVERSIFICATION OF WATER AVAILABILITY MIX

77%70%

63%

9%

10%

12%

14%

16%18%

3%5%

1% 2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Water Availability Mix(2000) Mid Term 2025 Long Term 2040

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

%) Acid mine drainage

Desalination

Return flows (irrigation treated effuent)

Groundwater

Surface water

Graph created from (DWS, Strategic overview of the water sector in SA, 2013) Projected to 2015, from 2015 to 2040 by NWRP

2. WC/WDM ACROSS WATER USE SECTORS

Sector Overview Outlook for water use

Agriculture and forestry

• Demands for food for the growing population

• Export led agriculture

• Limit further allocations to irrigation• Expansion of irrigated area to come from water

savings within the sector

International obligations

• Commitments through international agreements

• RSA will honour its international water obligations in line with protocols

• Increase imports from other countries, including Zimbabwe (estimated 80 to 100 million m3/annum)

Strategic power generation

• South Africa will have an energy sector that promotes, economic growth and development, Social Equity, Environmental sustainability

• IRP direction• Power imports from other countries, e.g. Inga Dam

hydro power scheme

Mining and Industry

• Key driver of economic growth and development of the country

• Future growth is anticipated for the industry,• Minimal growth in water use due to implementation

of WC/WDM and re-use• Future of coal – will gradually reduce

Municipal and domestic

• Eradication of service backlogs for a growing population

• Anticipate rapid growth in short to medium term• Reduce per capita consumption

Ecosystems • EWR requirements is a requirement by law

• Maintain current allocations regime60

2. OUTLOOK ON SOURCES OF WATER FOR THE VARIOUS SECTORS

61

User sector Source Available yield million m3/annum

2015 2020 2025 2030 2040

Municipal and

Industrial

Surface water 3000 3200 3500 3500 3600

Ground water 800 900 1000 1100 1200

Re-use 400 450 650 850 1000

Desalination 90 150 160 200 300

Other

Strategic/Energy Surface water 360 350 348 344 300

Ground water 2 5 6 7 10

Re-use 0 39 61 86 132

Desalination

Other

Agriculture Surface water 6400 6500 6700 6790 6800

Ground water 1800 1880 1900 1900 1900

Re-use 919 942 966 971 976

Desalination 0 0 0 0 0

Other

International transfers

out

Surface water 178 178 178 178 178

Ground water 0 0 0 0 0

Re-use 0 0 0 0 0

Desalination 0 0 0 0 0

Other

CONCLUSIONS/ KEY MESSAGES

• Water is a vehicle for achieving equality

• Planning to broaden water resource mix, as there are now limited opportunities for further surface water developments

• Water resource planning tends to respond to energy and food production. Different policy responses are required for the changing context of South African water resources management

• Many options must be considered in focused planning to meet water needs for different sectors at local level

• Water for expansion of irrigated agriculture will come from savings within the sector

• Consider the strategies and coordinate planning across water, energy and food sectors

• Potable water – reduce per capita consumption through WC/WDM

• Dams and inter-basin transfers inevitable in certain areas – very expensive

RECOMMENDATIONS

• Allocate adequate funds for planning activities across the sectors to avoid costly mistakes

• Set up a WEF Resource Planning Task Team to strengthen coordination on planning across DWS, DoE and DAFF

• Improved sharing of information required

THANK YOU

Patrick Mlilo mlilop@dws.gov.za012 336 8199082 611 7293