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Department of the Environment
Modeling to Support the Development of Nutrient TMDLs in Baltimore Harbor
Miao-Li Chang
Maryland Department of the Environment
Acknowledgment
Special thanks to the following individuals for data compilation, model setup/simulations, and document reviews: Nauth Panday, Dinorah Damalsy, Hui Liu and Dr. Harry Wang (Virginia Institute of Marine Science).
Watershed Characteristics
The watershed The watershed is home to 1.5 is home to 1.5 million peoplemillion people
Landuse is Landuse is predominantly predominantly industrial, industrial, commercial commercial and residential and residential (55 %)(55 %)
Mixed Agriculture
15%
Urban55%
Water1%
Forest and Other Herbaceous - 29%
General Information
There are more than 100 industrial facilities with wastewater or There are more than 100 industrial facilities with wastewater or cooling water discharges to Baltimore Harborcooling water discharges to Baltimore Harbor
The Baltimore Harbor is a very complex system with The Baltimore Harbor is a very complex system with a unique 3-layer hydrodynamic flow pattern. The a unique 3-layer hydrodynamic flow pattern. The upper and lower layers flow inward to the head of the upper and lower layers flow inward to the head of the Harbor, and the middle layer flows outward.Harbor, and the middle layer flows outward.
Spatially variable elevated levels of nutrients, metals Spatially variable elevated levels of nutrients, metals and organics in water, sediments and bottom-feeding and organics in water, sediments and bottom-feeding species of fish.species of fish.
This complexity necessitates a comprehensive This complexity necessitates a comprehensive monitoring and modeling program.monitoring and modeling program.
Harbor Eutrophication Modeling Framework
Watershed Model - HSPF MDE Model used Patapsco/Back CBP Model used for Upper Bay
Hydrodynamic Model - CH3D
Water Quality Model - CE-QUAL-ICM
Sediment Fluxes - Chesapeake Bay Sediment Flux Model
Consistent with CBP modeling framework for Tributary Strategy Finer resolution and more local data for calibration
Harbor Eutrophication Modeling FrameworkWatershed ModelHSPFHydrology (flow, TSS)
Hydrodynamic ModelCH3D Velocity, Diffusion, Surface Elevation,Salinity, Temperature
Water Quality ModelCE-QUAL-ICMTemperature, Salinity, Total Suspended Solid, Cyanobacteria/Diatoms/Algae, Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus, COD, DO, Silica
Watershed ModelHSPFnutrients, sediments
Sediment Diagenesis ModelSediment initial condition, Sediment settling rate
Point Source and other loads
Water Quality Prediction
Point Source Locations
#S
#S
#S #S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S #S
PB1PB2
PP1 PP2
PP3
PP4
PP5
PP6
PP7PP8PP9 PP10
PP11
PP12 PP13
#S#S
#S#S
#S#S#S
#S#S#S#S#S#S#S #S
#S#S
#S
#S#S #S
#S
#S#S#S #S
#S
#S
#S
#S
PSW1
PSW2
PSW3
PNW1
PNW2
PNW3
PNW4PNW5
PNW6PNW7 PNW8 PNW9
PE1
PE2
PE3
PB1 = Back RiverPB2 = Eastern StainlessPP1 = CongoleumPP2 = Freedom DistrictPP3 = ChemetalsPP4 = W.R. GracePP5 = PatapscoPP6 = Cox CreekPP7-PP13 = Bethelehem Steel
Nonpoint Source Load –Nonpoint Source Load –Watershed Model - Watershed Model - HSPF Segmentation
400
600
500
100
1100
700
300
1200
2000
2200
3100
2100
1900
200
3200
1700
3700
3600 3300
1500
34003500
1600
3800
2300
1400
2400
1300
2600
3000
2500
3900
Hydrodynamic Model
CH3D - Curvilinear Hydrodynamic 3-dimensionVelocity, Diffusion, Surface elevation, Salinity, Temperature on an intratidal time scale.
Model physical processes impacting bay-wide circulation and vertical mixing
Baltimore Harbor
Back River
Gunpowder River
Bush River
Susquehanna River
Magothy River
Severn River
South River
Chester River
Sassafras River
Bohemia River
Choptank River
Water Quality Model
§ CE-QUAL-ICM
§ Integrated compartment box model
§ Boxes correspond to cells in x-y-z space on the CH3D grid (3029 cells - 2 km 0.5 km 1.7 m in the surface plane, 8970 cells – 2 to 15 cells in the vertical)
§ Finite difference method using QUICKEST algorithm (Leonard, 1979) in the horizontal directions and a Crank-Nicolson scheme in the vertical direction
§ Kinetics are computed using a temporal dimension of days
22 state variables, 140 parametersTemperatureSalinityTotal suspended solid3 algae groups : Dinoflagelete , Diatoms, Other (green) algaeCarbon cycle : DOC, LPOC, RPOCNitrogen cycle : Ammonium, Nitrate-nitrite, LPON, RPONPhosphorus cycle : Total phosphate, DOP, LPOP, RPOPSilica cycle : Available Silica, Particulate Biogenic SilicaCODDO
Sediment Flux ModelA
CT
IVE
SE
DIM
EN
T
LA
YE
R
Aerobic layer
Anaerobic layer
POM Dissolved
POM Dissolved
Particle mixing
Dissolved mixing
Burial
Depositional flux
Fluxes of O2, H2S, NH4, NO3, PO4, Si
WATER COLUMN
Sedimentation Diffusion
Sedimentation
PartioningReactions
PartioningReactionsDiagenesis
WQ Calibration
Baltimore Harbor
Algal bloom
Hypoxia/anoxia
Very eutrophication
Water Quality Data
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S#S
#S
#S
#S
#S #S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S
#S$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
M1M2
M3
M4M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10M11
M12
M13M14
M15
M16M17
M18 M19
M20M21
M22
M23
M24
M25
M26
M28
M27
MDGT
FYBR
CTBY
INHB
RVBH
WCPT
HMCK
FFOF
DPCK
#S Water column data stations$ Benthic flux data stations
Water columnMDE 94-95Baltimore City Department of Public Work 97
Benthic fluxUniversity of Maryland 94, 95, 97
Upper BayChesapeake Bay Program 82~
#
#
#
#
#
#
###
# ##
###
# ##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
CB1.0
CB1.1
CB2.1
CB2.2
CB3.1
CB3.2
CB4.4
EE1.1
EE2.1
EE2.2
ET1.1
ET2.1
ET2.2ET2.3
ET3.1
ET4.1
ET4.2 ET5.0
ET5.1
ET5.2
WT1.1
WT2.1
WT3.1
WT4.1
WT5.1
WT6.1
WT7.1
WT8.1
WT8.2
CB4.1ECB4.1W
CB4.2CCB4.2E
CB4.3W
XGG8251
WT8.3
CB4.3CCB4.3E
CB4.2E
CB4.1C
WQ Calibration
Technical Review Update
Reviewed by State Agencies, Baltimore County and Baltimore City
Reviewed by Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling Subcommittee
Reviewed by SAG Modeling Technical Group
Percentages of Average Annual Loads in the Baltimore Harbor
Total Nitrogen 1995-1997
Municipal & Industrial Point Sources
71%
Urban-Stormwater 12%
Mixed Agriculture
12%
Other 5%
Total Phosphorus 1995-1997
Municipal & Industrial Point
Sources 58%
Urban-Stormwater 29%
Mixed Agriculture
8%
Other 6%
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
# #
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
Curtis Bay
M23
M22
M16
M26
M28
M8
M13M14
M15
M12
M11
M10
M6
M7
M9
M21
M20
M19
M17
M24
M27
M2M1
M3
M4
M18M25
Grid091002_all_prj.shpopen waterdeep waterdeep channel
# Boynton_bf_fttomtr_md.shp# Mdeloc_edit_fttomtr_md.shp
Harbor Designated Uses
Target TMDL water quality goals
Ensure that minimum DO concentrations specified for each designated use of the Baltimore Harbor are maintained;
Resolve violations of narrative Chla criteria. MDE has determined, per Thomann and Mueller, that it is acceptable
to maintain Chla concentrations below a maximum of 100 µg/L, and to target, with some flexibility depending on waterbody characteristics, a 30-day rolling average of approximately 50 µg/L.
Baltimore Harbor Designated Uses and DO criterion
1.0DC
1.72.33.0DW
3.04.05.0OW
5.0MF
Instantaneous minimum
1-day mean
7-day mean
30-day mean
DesignatedUse
Open Water(OW)
Deep Channel(DC)
Migratory Fish(MF)
Lower Pycnocline - Bottom
Open Water(OW)
Deep Water(DW)
Migratory Fish (MF)
Upper – Lower pycnocline
Open Water(OW)
Open Water(OW)
Migratory Fish(MF)
0 – Upper Pycnocline
Oct 1 –Jan 30June 1 –Sept 30Feb 1 –May 31
DO Attainment Check
Solid Line = CBP Reference CurveDotted Line = MDE Attainment CurvePercent Nonattainment = 2%
Area blew the CBO Reference Curve representing an approximately 10 percent allowable exceedance equally distributed between time and space (CBP, 2003
Sensitivity Scenarios
1. No Point Sources – 100% removal of point source loads in Harbor area: To test the impact of point sources.
2. No Nonpoint Sources -- 100% removal of nonpoint source loads in Harbor area: To test the impact of nonpoint sources.
3. No Anthropogenic Loads - 100% removal of point and nonpoint source loads: To test the impact of human activities (point + nonpoint source loads)
4. Clean Sediment -- Start model with clean sediment initially: To test the impact of internal source (pollutant loads from bottom sediments)
5. Bay Influences -- 100% removal of point and nonpoint source loads and start model with clean sediment initially: To test the impact of loads from Chesapeake Bay to Baltimore Harbor.
Sensitivity Model Scenarios
Baltimore Harbor DO Percent non-attainment Sensitivity Scenarios
Deep Water June to
September
Deep Channel June to September
Open Water June to
September
Migratory Fish February to May
Open Water October to
January
Calibration 29 87 1 4 1
Zero Point Source Loads
14 60.9 0 0 0
Zero Nonpoint Source Loads
12 61 0 0 0
Zero Point Source + Zero Nonpoint
Source Loads 9 57.8 0 0 0
Zero Sediments Initial Conditions
10 44.2 0 0 0
Zero Point Source + Zero Nonpoint
Source Loads + Zero Sediments Initial Conditions
4 37.2 0 0 0
BALTIMORE HARBOR OTHER SCENARIOSLOADINGS and DO Attainment Check
SCENARIO
% Violation
MIGRATORY FISH
% Violation
OPEN WATER
(June-Sept)
% Violation
OPEN WATER (Oct-Jan)
% Violation
DEEP WATER
% Violation
DEEP CHANNEL*
Calibration 4 1 1 29 87
CBP Allocation 0 0 0 16 63.5
MDE NPS, CBP Allocation PS
0 0 0 16 63.5
PS = permit limits MDE NPS
Upper Bay = CBP 0 0 0 18 65.3
PS = E3 MDE NPS
Upper Bay = CBP 0 0 0 14 60.7
PS = ENR MDE NPS
Upper Bay = CBP 0 0 0 7.8 80
Baltimore Harbor Possible TMDL Scenario Run
Point Source : Flow: Maximum permit flow
ENR to Municipal - TN: 4 mg/L annual average
(3 mg/L in May - October, 5 mg/L in November - April), TP: 0.3 mg/L
Industrial PS – Best Possible Control loads
Nonpoint Source: 15 % reduction in controllable loads (urban storm water and
agriculture loads)
Progress to Date
Model developments – Completed
Technical Review – Completed
Draft TMDL numbers – Completed
Plan: TMDL submittal in 2006