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Mackenzie Nelsen
Junior at Watauga High School
Using Dendroclimatology to Predict the Effects of
Climate Change on High Elevations
Principle of Aggregate Tree Growth
The size of a Tree Ring Depends on:
1. the age related growth trend (A) due to normal physiological aging processes
2. the climate (C) that occurred during that year
3. the occurrence of disturbance factors within the forest stand (for example, a blow down of trees), indicated by D1,
4. the occurrence of disturbance factors from outside the forest stand (for example, an insect outbreak that defoliates the trees, causing growth reduction), indicated by D2, and
5. random (error) processes (E) not accounted for by these other processes.
• With a 300 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 there is 30% increase in plant growth (Idso).
• At the timberline there is a 10-20% decline in photosynthetic performance of trees due to natural CO2 levels (Beniston 180).
• “Higher partial pressure of CO2 increases the rate of CO2 reactions with rubisco during photosynthesis, and inhibits photorespiration” (Bazzaz, 1990).
• With rising CO2 levels high altitudes may be more susceptible to climate extremes.
Background
Research Question:
How will climate change affect high altitude carbon sequestration?
Hypothesis:
Since high altitude trees are normally limited by colder temperatures and a thinner atmosphere they will be more susceptible to climate change.
Methods
• Collect 40 tree core samples from different high and low altitude areas
• Let cores dry and mount them to balsa wood
• Using a micrometer and microscope measure the annual growth of each tree
• Graph the growth of each tree and create a chronology
• Calculate the variation in growth from 1990-2013 for each tree
• Find the average growth variation for high and low altitude trees
To eliminate random variation:
• Large sample size • “For most sites in the United States, 20 overlapping
tree records are usually sufficient for a reliable chronology.” (Speer 4)
• Several locations • Boone, Howards Knob, Wilkesboro, Durham, Hickory
• Different size trees • Ranging from 223 cm- 77 cm
Collected Data Tree Elevation Latitude Longitude Circumfrence (cm) Date Collected
High Elevation 1 4252 ft 36° 14' 44.9478" 81° 42' 47.7498" 220.345 1/1/2014
2 4252 ft 36° 14' 44.947" 81° 42' 47.749" 215.9 1/1/2014
6 3329 ft 36°13'6.36"N 81°40'49.72"W 221 1/13/2014
14 4685 ft 36°14'0.05"N 81°41'58.11"W 101.6 3/9/2014
15 4685 ft 36°13'59.92"N 81°41'57.89"W 99 3/9/2014
16 4674 ft 36°13'59.38"N 81°41'58.11"W 142 3/9/2014
17 4660 ft 36°13'58.52"N 81°41'56.40"W 120 3/9/2014
18 4665 ft 36°13'58.30"N 81°41'57.87"W 143.5 3/9/2014
19 4640 ft 36°13'57.98"N 81°41'56.13"W 124 3/9/2014
20 4642 ft 36°13'58.10"N 81°41'56.92"W 109 3/9/2014
Low Elevation 3 307 ft 35°56'50.82" N 78°59'40.88" W 200 1/3/2014
4 1086 ft 35°46'27.23" N 81°18'47.63" W 125.7 1/11/2014
5 1085 ft 35°46'27.30" N 81°18'47.60" W 77 1/11/2014
7 1060 ft 36° 7'40.27"N 81°15'47.41"W 160 3/8/2014
8 1035 ft 36° 7'41.01"N 81°15'49.22"W 157.5 3/8/2014
9 1037 ft 36° 7'40.19"N 81°15'49.13"W 136 3/8/2014
10 1065 ft 36° 7'39.84"N 81°15'47.85"W 166 3/8/2014
11 1111 ft 36° 7'44.91"N 81°15'46.89"W 223.5 3/8/2014
12 1118 ft 36° 7'45.07"N 81°15'46.64"W 171.5 3/8/2014
13 1118 ft 36° 7'45.24"N 81°15'46.75"W 94 3/8/2014
Chronology of Low Elevation Trees
0
1
2
3
4
5
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 12 Elevation: 1118 ft
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 3 Elevation: 307 ft
0
2
4
6
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 4 Elevation: 1086 ft
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Years
Tree 5 Elevation: 1085 ft
Variation: .427 Variation: .889
Variation: 1.86 Variation: .157
0
1
2
3
4
5
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 7 Elevation: 1060 ft
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 8 Elevation: 1035 ft
0
2
4
6
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 9 Elevation: 1037 ft
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 13 Elevation 1118 ft
0
1
2
3
4
5
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 11 Elevation: 1118 ft
Variation: .612 Variation: .659
Variation: 1.29 Variation: .079
Variation: .458
0
1
2
3
4
5
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 10 Elevation: 1065 ft Variation: 1.41
Chronology of High Altitude Trees
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Growth (mm)
Tree 1 Elevation: 4252 ft
0
5
10
15
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 2 Elevation: 4252 ft
0
1
2
3
4
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 6 Elevation: 3329 ft
0
2
4
6
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 15 Elevation: 4685 ft
Variation: 3.09
Variation: .245
Variation: 12.07
Variation: 2.60
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Growth (mm)
Tree 19 Elevation: 4640 ft
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 14 Elevation: 4685 ft
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 18 Elevation: 4665 ft
0
2
4
6
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 16 Elevation: 4674 ft
Variation: 1.32 Variation: 1.31
Variation: 4.93
Variation: 1.95
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Tree 17 Elevation: 4660 ft Variation: 1.33
0
2
4
6
8
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Growth (mm)
Tree 20 Elevation: 4642 ft
Variation: 1.44
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Growth (mm)
Average Growth of Pinus Trees 1990-2013
High Elevation
Low Elevation
Variation: 3.3
Variation: .57
Average Growth Variation
• High Elevation: 3.3
• Low Elevation: .57
Implications: There is a significant difference in growth variability between high elevation and low elevation trees. High elevation trees experienced more growth variation than low elevation trees.
Discussion
Based on experimental data high elevation trees are more affected by climate change. In years of climate extremes trees at 3,000 plus feet showed significant changes in growth rate. Low elevation trees show a very steady growth trend that is not affected by climate. This suggests that future climate change will have a significant effect on mountain ecosystems. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases high elevation trees will experience a carbon dioxide fertilization effect. This effect is capable of shifting species ranges and altering ecosystem dynamics.
Works Cited Beniston, Martin. Mountain Environments in Changing Climates. London: Routledge, 1994. Print. "Carbon Storage in Trees." The Envirothon. N.p., n.d. Web. 3 Jan. 2014. Climate Change: How Do We Know? Digital image. Global Climate Change. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, n.d. Web. 13 Jan. 2014. "CO2 Fertilization." RealClimate RSS. Guardian Environment Network, 28 Nov. 2004. Web. 20 Dec. 2013. Dyer, James. "Tree Coring Videos - James Dyer." Introduction to Tree Coring & Preparing Tree Cores for Analysis. Ohio University, 25 July 2013. Web. 15 Jan. 2014. Idso, Sherwood B. "Three Phases of Plant Response to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment."Plant Physiol. United States Water Conservation Laboratory,, 21 Jan. 1988. Web. 13 Jan. 2014. Jacoby, Gordon C., and Rosanne D. D'Arrgio. "Tree Rings, Carbon Dioxide, and Climatic change." Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 94.16 (1997): 8350-353. PNAS. National Academy of Sciences. Web. 21 Dec. 2013. "Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research." About Tree Rings. The Arizona Board of Regents, 5 Jan. 2012. Web. 12 Dec. 2013. Mathez, Edmond A. "Studying Tree Rings to Learn About Global Climate." Earth: Inside and out. N.p.: n.p., n.d. N. pag. Studying Tree Rings to Learn About Global Climate. New Press. Web. 15 Jan. 2014. Speer, James H. Fundamentals of Tree-ring Research. Tucson: University of Arizona, 2010. Print. Stoffel, Markus, Michelle Bollschweiler, David R. Butler, and Brian H. Luckman. Tree Rings and Natural Hazards: A State-of-the-art. Dordrecht: Springer, 2010. Print.
Acknowledgements
Dr. Schmalbeck- NCSSM
Dr. van de Gevel- ASU
