Denali Investors - Columbia Business School Presentation 2008 Fall v3 (1)

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    GFKTIJN@ JTWNEDWW WGBFFK L@KK :==2

    W]DGN@K WNXT@XNFEW NE\DWXNEC

    HDE@KN NE\DWXFZW, KKG

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    G`sd Wtuhy #0Sb`t b`ppdes wbde tbd lfkkfwnec cdt tfcdtbdr6

    Bujrns

    D`sy G`pnt`k

    Dcf]d`onec Lueh`idet`ks

    ]d`onec Wtfgo ]rngds

    Jnc Hd`k Ldds

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    @eswdr1 LNEK/CGF/TJW

    0. Wuiidr :==3

    :. L`kk :==3

    7. Snetdr :==3

    TJW LNEKCGF

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    Hd`k J`gocrfuehH`vnh (LNEK) vs. Cfkn`tb (CGF)

    Ne H`vnh vs. Cfkn`tb sgde`rnf, LNEKwfe tbdjnhhnec gfetdst ne Aued :==3 `c`nest LK (` iugbk`rcdr gfipdtntfr) tf purgb`sd CGF (` iugb k`rcdrgfip`ey jy i`rodt g`p).

    Xbd tdris wdrd lfr $0.4j ne g`sb, fr $48.4= pdr sb`rd,

    wntb luehnec prfvnhdh jy TJW. @ vdry fvdrv`kudhhd`k. X`nk deh fl tbd KJF i`en`.

    Jy Wdptdijdr :==3, ne gfijne`tnfe wntb tbd edws`eh tbd gfesuidr `eh rdt`nk sdgtfr jdnec bnt b`rh,LNEK tr`hdh hfwe lrfi $00 - $04 pdr sb`rd tf `jfut$4 pdr sb`rd. CGF w`s tr`hnec `t $84 pdr sb`rd.

    Jd g`rdluk wb`t yfu wnsb lfr

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    \`ku`tnfe

    :.48x=.44x]J

    ::.:x0=.x4.8xD\/DJNX

    (tti)

    2.=x:.4xD\/DJNXH@

    (tti)

    =.3

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    ]fssnjkd FutgfidsFutgfid J`eh negkuhds1

    Xbd hd`k gkfsds (LNEK juys CGF) Xbd hd`k jrd`os (LNEK hfds eft juy

    CGF)

    Wfidtbnec ne jdtwdde

    Dijdhhdh kdc`k uegdrt`nety (I@G, sfkvdegy

    gdrtnlng`td, auhcd, aurnshngtnfe)

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    S`ys tf ]k`gd `e NevdstidetGfiife `pprf`gbds

    Kfec/Wbfrt LNEK, fr Kfec/Wbfrt CGF

    Sb`t ns tbd rnso*/rdw`rh6LNEK1 `ppr. 0/4 tf 0/0=

    CGF1 `ppr. 0/0 tf0/:

    *Znso 9 pdri`edet kfss fl g`pnt`k, eft jdt`

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    S`ys tf ]k`gd `e Nevdstidet #0@ jdttdr `pprf`gb #0

    Kfec jftb LNEK `eh CGF

    Sby jftb6

    Gfuetdrnetuntnvd...

    Wt`eh`rh idrcdr `rj `e`kysns fe CGF `kfed ns knintdhNesur`egd/bdhcd gfst

    Xr`esldr fl v`kud gfegdpt

    Gfijne`tnfe negrd`sds s`ldtyXbd Z`tnf 0/4 rnso/rdw`rh r`tnf fr =/8.46

    Fr nestd`h fed g`e snipky

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    S`ys tf ]k`gd `e Nevdstidet #:@ jdttdr `pprf`gb #:

    Aust S`nt

    Sby6

    Ir. I`rodt cnvds knttkd grdhnt tbdsd h`ys tnid tf `gt

    @kw`ys jd `jkd tf w`ko `w`y

    @kk s`nh, tbd tbdsns jfnks hfwe tf

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    Bd`hs N Sne, X`nks N Hfet KfsdJy cfnec kfec jftb LNEK `eh CGF1

    Nevdstidet jfnks hfwe tf bd`hs N wne (knodky `kft), t`nks N jrd`o dvde (prdtty iugb).

    Xbdrd ns ` ed`r-tdri g`t`kyst tb`t grd`tds v`kud

    tbd I&@ hd`k jdtwdde LNEK `eh CGF wnkkdntbdr gkfsd fr jrd`o.

    Xbd futgfid hfds eft i`ttdr1 ne tbd lfridr,wd kfsd eftbnec? ne tbd k`ttdr, pftdetn`k lfr 0==%

    tf 8==% upsnhd. S`ntnec lfr pfssnjky uedeguijdrdh LNEK ns

    aust `s v`knh.

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    Wf Sb`t B`ppdedh6- Gfidhy fl drrfrs- LNEK jdttdr kugoy tb`e cffh

    - Kned`r tbneonec `t tbd pd`o- Xbd hd`k ldd ifestdr

    Dvdets

    G`t`kystsNesur`egd `t wfro

    0

    :

    7

    7

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    ZdvndwWpdgn`k sntu`tnfe

    Fptnfe`knty tb`ts lrdd\`ku`tnfe

    Bdhcnec (Nesur`egd)

    Xbd Z`tnf

    Hnscruetkdh idrcdr `rj bdhcd luehs sunec

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    @i`znec L`gts (@prnk :==2)0) LNEK GDF stnkk b`s ` afj.

    :) CGF GDF stnkk b`s ` afj.

    7) TJW j`eodrs `i gurnfus iysdkl.

    Xbd stfry ns eft fvdr `s LNEK _ns stnkk gbd`pY

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    Knvd Wntu`tnfe #0@ Wpnefll

    Xbdsns1

    Juy ]`rdetGf, `eh cdt WpneGf lfr lrdd.

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    Knvd Wntu`tnfe #0Jrneos (tngodr JGF) Wpnefll fl Jrneos Bfid

    Wdgurnty (tngodr GLK)

    JGF GLK

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    Jrneos ]`rdetJGF p`rdet ns ` hfine`et nehustry kd`hdr wntb tbd strfecdst

    j`k`egd sbddt (edt g`sb fl $

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    Jrneos Bfid Wdgurnty (GLK)GLK ns `eftbdr nehustry kd`hdr (#: `ltdr @HX) wntb `

    sfknh j`k`egd sbddt (edt g`sb fl $48i) `ehkd`hnec idtrngs `eh i`rcnes.

    JBW ns gfesnhdrdh tbd ifst hnsgnpknedh pk`ydr ne tbdnehustry.

    Xbd nehustry b`s ` kfec ruew`y `eh ns vdry lr`cidetdh`eh uehdr pdedtr`tdh.

    Xbd i`e`cdidet b`s st`tdh tbdy `rd kffonec tf i`net`netbdnr hnsgnpkned fe tbd rdsnhdetn`k snhd `eh

    gfetneud tf crfw frc`eng`kky.GLK b`s tbd pdrdeen`kky kfwdst gbure/`ttrntnfe jy ` wnhd

    i`rcne. Gbure ns `e nipfrt`et nssud - gurrdetky`jfut 3%

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    Hd`k J`gocrfuehJGF w`s `eh ns ` bdhcd lueh stfipnec crfueh

    lfr ]nr`td, IIN, `eh Wtddk.

    Ne`hvdrtdet jdedlngn`ry fl `gtnvnsi wntb J@Rs`kd, edt g`sb pfsntnfe `eh rdg`p

    Tetnk inh Wdptdijdr :==2, JGF w`s tr`hnec `t $3= pdr sb`rd, iugbgkfsdr tf tbd netrnesng v`kud j`sdh fe tbd dxpdgt`tnfe fl tbd spne.

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    \`ku`tnfe - JGFGfips tr`hd `rfueh .

    @t

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    \`ku`tnfe - GLKGLK sbfukh ongo fut fvdr $:==i ne prflfri` DJNXH@ =>.

    Gfips tr`hd `rfueh >x 0:x DJNXH@. @t

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    \`ku`tnfe JGF & GLK

    :.8x0.4x]J

    04.=iD\1

    $0,04=i$0,=0=iIG1

    $0

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    Wpnefll Gbdgoknst\`ku`tnfe

    G`pnt`k strugturd

    Frpb`e jusnedss/stfgo

    Nestntutnfe`k fwedrsbnp/prdssurdsI`e`cdidet negdetnvds/fwedrsbnp

    Lueh`idet`ks

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    S`ys tf ]k`gd `e Nevdstidet]rd-spne

    ]k`y tbd jrd`o up v`kud- \n` dqunty fr fptnfes

    ]fst-spneJuy JGF fe tbd gbd`p

    Juy GLK fe tbd gbd`p

    - \n` dqunty fr fptnfes (tnid `rjntr`cd/KD@]s)

    Fptnfes/\fk`tnknty grd`td vdry `ttr`gtnvd rnso/rdw`rh

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    Ftbdr L`gtfrs/LfrgdsGygkng`k gb`r`gtdrnstngs (grdhnt, gbure)

    Gfuetdrgygkng`k gb`r`gtdrnstngs (cues,s`ldty)

    Netdre`tnfe`k dxpfsurdDxgb`ecd r`tds

    GLK rdjr`ehnec

    Zfy`ktnds wneh hfwe jdedlnt

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    ZdvndwWpnefll

    Nedllngndegy junkt netf tbd systdi

    \`ku`tnfe

    FptnfesXbd Z`tnf

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    Knvd Wntu`tnfe #:@ Xdehdr Flldr

    BKXB BKXB Gfrp. ($2.0=)

    - Tp tf 2=i sb`rds (fl 024i futst`ehnec), ef ineniui- $2.2= g`sb pdr sb`rd tdehdr (luehdh vn` $0j edt g`sb)- >% rdture ne fed wddo- Dxpnr`tnfe 00/:4/=2 (edxt Xudsh`y)

    - I`e`cdidet fe jf`rh `eh b`vd tdehdrdh (tbneoiftnv`tnfes & justdh idrcdr)- Teknodky tf rd`gb 2=i sb`rd i`x- Hfet lfrcdt1 pfst tdehdr pftdetn`k

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    Knvd Wntu`tnfe #7@ Idrcdr @rj

    F\DE XurjfGbdl ($0.= pdr sb`rd gfesnhdr`tnfe1 $7.

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    Hde`kn NevdstfrsB. Odvne Jyue

    ojyueMHde`knNevdstfrs.gfi