Demonstration Event Linz, May 27th, 2003

Reinhold Deussner - OIR

ALSO Danube – Impacts on a

macro-economic level

© ÖIR p. 3

Objective of macro-economic evaluation

To assess the impacts of Advanced Logistic SOlutions

+ on the transport system

+ on the economy

+ on labour

+ and on the ecology

Development of IT-solutions

Test of solutions within Demonstrators

Micro-economic evaluation

Macro-economic evaluation

Development of IT-solutionsDevelopment of IT-solutions

Test of solutions within Demonstrators

Test of solutions within Demonstrators

Micro-economic evaluationMicro-economic evaluation

Macro-economic evaluationMacro-economic evaluation

Development of IT-solutions

Introduction

© ÖIR p. 6

Content

Impacts on Transport Demand and Infrastructure

focussing on a transport prognosis

Impacts on Society, and Environment

Impacts on Workforce and Training requirements

Impacts on Regional Economy and Labour market

Multi-criteria analyses

Recommendations

Macro-economic evaluation

© ÖIR p. 7

Elements of ALSO Prognosis

Trade and Transport Prognosis

Socio-Economic FrameworkSocio-Economic Framework

Micro-economic evaluationMicro-economic evaluation

Impacts of ALSO Danube solutions

Impacts of ALSO Danube solutions

Transport Demand Year 2000

Transport Demand Year 2000

Trade Flow analysis Year 1995-2000

Trade Flow analysis Year 1995-2000

Trade Prognosis

Trade Prognosis

Transport Prognosis

Transport Prognosis

ALSO DanubeScenarios

ALSO DanubeScenarios

Transport InfrastructureTransport Infrastructure

Transport MarketTransport Market

© ÖIR p. 8

Regional coverage

• Europe

• Danube Region

• Danube Corridor

Transport Prognosis

© ÖIR p. 10

Trade Prognosis

Trade Growth: Eastern Europe catches up

• The European integration makes trade growth stronger than GDP (2 - 4% p.a.)

• Growth in West and Central Europa relations continues

• High growth with East Europe and Black Sea Region

Danube Region: Growth of Exports, 2000 - 2015[tons in % p.a.]

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

West Europe(NL, B, F, D,

A)

Central East (CZ, SK, H,

CRO)

East Europe(YU, RO,

BG)

Black Sea and Over-

seas

DanubeRegion

© ÖIR p. 11

Trade Prognosis

Growth of Trade in Danube Region: All Modes, by Commodity Groups [tons in % p.a.]

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2000-15

C Low valued

B Medium

A High valued

Change of commodity structure

• High value A and B commodities leading

• Low value C commodities (coal, ores) with a modest development

© ÖIR p. 12

Commodities

Commodities:

A High Valued

B Medium

C Low Valued

Commodities:

NST/R Group

0 Agricultural products and life animals B

1 Foodstuff and animal fodder A

2 Solid mineral fuels C

3 Petroleum products C

4 Ores and metal waste C

5 Metal products B

6 Crude and manufactured minerals, building materials B

7 Fertilizers C

8 Chemicals A

9 Machinery, transport equipment, manufactured articles and miscellaneous articles

A

© ÖIR p. 16

Transport markets

Transport Volume on River Danube Waterway (year 2000)

© ÖIR p. 17

Transport Prognosis: Results

Transport volume by modes

Export, Import, Transit - Bavaria and Austria

Reference Scenario: Transport Volume in Danube Corridor [million tons]

30

55

23

33

1520

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Road 2000 Road 2015 Rail 2000 Rail 2015 Inland nav.2000

Inland nav.2015

© ÖIR p. 18

Transport Prognosis: Results

Growth rates

+ Road transport ahead: consequences of liberalised transport markets and

shortcomings (infrastructure, funding, transport policies)

+ modest Growth of Danube Waterway Transports without ALSO solutions

Reference Scenario: Growth rates in Danube Corridor[2000 - 2015]

61%

33%

47%

86%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Road Rail Inland navigation All Modes

© ÖIR p. 20

ALSO Economic Impacts

Target Groups

BMVIT other Ministries

other

s RIS Industry (EU-Countries and Pre-accession Countries) Priv.

CSL_DB Services / possible

interested parties

1 = no importance

2 = important in future

3 = important

4 = very important

no avilable information / not

appropriate

Tra

ffic

man

agem

ent/

Tec

hnol

ogy

(Riv

er P

olic

e) a

nd W

ater

wa

y

Aut

hor

ityM

inis

trie

s of

Fin

ance

and

Min

istr

ies

of

Eco

nom

ics

Min

istr

ies

of th

e In

terio

r (o

ther

Org

anis

atio

ns li

ke E

UR

OP

OL)

Min

istr

ies

of A

gric

ultu

re, F

ores

try

and

En

viro

nmen

t

Nat

iona

l Def

ense

Act

ion

For

ces

alon

g th

e D

anub

e (R

escu

e

Ope

ratio

ns)

RIS

on

Eur

opea

n L

eve

l

natio

nal R

IS

EU

-Tra

ffic

Pol

icy

/ R&

D

Har

bour

s

Po

wer

Aut

hori

ties

alo

ng t

he D

anub

e

Boa

tmas

ters

*

Shi

ppin

g C

ompa

nies

*

Load

ing

Indu

stry

Sup

ply

Indu

stry

rel

evan

t for

Inla

nd

Nav

ivat

ion

For

war

ding

Age

ntD

anu

be S

ervi

ce P

rovi

der

(e.

g.

Con

stru

ctio

n C

ompa

nies

)

Che

mic

al In

dus

try

Tel

emat

ics

Indu

stry

Oth

er p

rod

ucin

g In

dust

ry (

Aut

omob

ile

Indu

stry

, T

extil

es,

...)

VA

S P

rovi

der

(e.g

. Lo

gis

tics

Pla

tfor

m)

Pri

vate

Use

rs

Services/Products/Tasks

A. Operation of test-center infrastructure

Test-center infrastructure

Transpondermanagement 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 2 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 1 4 2 3

Maintenance of system-components of test-

center 1 1 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 1

Technical operation of test-center 1 1 2 3 2 4 1 1 3 2 2 4 1

Commercial operation of test-center 1 2 3 2 4 2 2 3 1 2 3 1

Investment control (substitution/expansion) 1 3 3 2 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 2 1

B. Product development

I. Primarily assistance of public authorities

Assistance of administration of public

authorities

Persons identification (Provision of tactical

traffic imaging) 3 4 1 3 3 3 4 4 2 2 1 2

Goods control (Provision of tactical traffic

imaging) 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 2 3 4 3 3 3

Border protection of 'blue border' 3 3 4 3 4 3 2 2 4 3 1 2

Traceability of offences in shipping by

monitoring 4 3 4 4 1 3 3 4 3 2 4 2

Declaration and information provision for

dangerous goods 4 3 3 4 1 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 4 3 4 3

CSL.DB: Services for Target Groups

CSL.DB: Economic Benefits

Location Economic Impact Time Relia-bility

Cost Risk

Low waterstretches

Increase in admissible draught,improvement of capacity utilisation,reduction of accidents

+ ++ +++ ++

Borders reduction of waiting times (short andmedium term)

+ + +

Locks smoother traffic mode, energy saving(increasing with traffic volume)

+ + +

Ports reduction of waiting times (stevedoring,pre- and end-haul), improvement ofcapacity utilisation

+++ + +++

Shipow-ners,Industry

improvement of information processes(accounting, traffic management,logistic chain management)

++ ++ ++

© ÖIR p. 21

Transport Prognosis: Results

ALSO Scenario 2: Transport Volume in Danube Corridor[million tons]

30

51

23

31

15

26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Road 2000 Road 2015 Rail 2000 Rail 2015 Inland nav.2000

Inland nav.2015

ALSO solutions: The Danube gains additional 6 million tons

© ÖIR p. 22

Transport prognosis: impacts

Reduction of Road Transport after realisation of Inland Waterway Solutions (A8 Innkreis Motorway, trucks/24 hours)

5.700

10.0009.300 9.100

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

Year 2000 Year 2015(ReferencePrognosis)

ALSO Scenario 1 ALSO Scenario 2

Congested Roads in Corridor:

ALSO saves infrastructure upgrading

reduces emissions, improves safety

© ÖIR p. 26

Impacts on Society and Environment

• Calamity abatement on waterway reduces accidents and follow-up consequences

• Hazardous Goods monitoring

• Energy saving by more regular driving modus

• Modal Shift from road to inland navigation reduces global and local emissions

• NOx reduction (-3 to -4% in Corridor)

• noise reduction - most important in densely populated urban areas

• global effects (CO2 reduction)

Direct impacts

Indirect impacts

© ÖIR p. 27

Impact on Workforce

Crew on board: in the framework of a growing workload, ALSO provides assistance and relief to human operator, secures proper reaction to emergency situations

 

Additional labour force

Creation of additional labour in follow-up services: ports handling, stevedoring, national control centres, system suppliers

Crew on board: minimum number regulated

Education and training needs

Crew: Cargo and transport management, voyage planning, navigation and calamity abatement

Improved working conditions

© ÖIR p. 29

Regional Economic Impacts

    Modest due to low overall size of investment

RIS along Upper Danube: 11 million EUR (administration)

private operators: 10 million EUR

Indirect Effects

    Indirect effects are considerable: ALSO improves

the competitiveness of inland navigation versus road transport

the competitiveness of industry - thus safeguarding industrial locations (steel)

reduction of external cost 

Direct Effects

© ÖIR p. 30

Cost-benefit analysis

0 1 2Macroeconomic Level (local) increase in added value 2,55 2,55 2,55

Time 5,10 5,16 5,16Transport Costs 10,21 10,52 10,52Logistics Cost 7,66 8,04 8,19accessibility/location 5,10 5,95 5,95service quality 5,10 6,37 7,65transport safety 5,10 5,10 5,10

indirect effects multiplier effects 3,06 3,83 4,59modal shift 7,15 7,50 7,65

Social Level number of accidents 5,27 5,28 5,29Cost of Accidents 5,27 5,29 5,29number of additional jobs 5,27 5,27 5,27

improvement of qualification=number of additional skills 5,27 6,32 6,85

Environmental reduction of emissions and noise emissions of pollutants - global 8,32 8,32 8,32emissions of pollutants - local 8,32 9,99 11,65emissions of noise 5,55 6,93 8,32environmental risk 5,55 6,24 6,24

Total 100,00 108,67 114,59

effects on employment

Alternatives

tangible direct effects

intangible direct effects

reduction of accident costs

Target Group Target Indicators

© ÖIR p. 31

Conclusions

Conclusions (1) ALSO solutions are in accordance with European Strategic

Goals – the development oft the transport system towards an efficient, environmentally friendly and safe transport.

The Implementation of ALSO solutions on the 7800 km European waterway network will

improve the competitiveness of inland navigation

increase the share of intermodal transport

enable a shift of transport from road to inland navigation

thus make a better use of existing infrastructure

thus reduce emissions and noise in congested areas

© ÖIR p. 32

Conclusions

Conclusions (2)

ALSO solutions

increase the safety on inland waterways and on roads

enable inland navigation to cope better with adverse fairway conditions

improve working conditions and education levels

strengthen the position of industry

contribute to the integration of Europe by connecting the emerging markets with the European core regions

thus enable the Danube Region to cope with the challenges of the future

© ÖIR p. 33

Recommendations

Recommendations (1)

Administration

to use information technology to simplify and improve administrative processes (customs and persons control, statistics, information on hazardous goods)

to realise in accordance with the Rotterdam Declaration RIS along River Danube

to support the Danube countries in the impelemation

to create harmonised regulations on the implementation within the EU, CCNR and DC

to secure funding of supporting technology programmes

to create synergy effects between information technology and the upgrading of the waterways

© ÖIR p. 34

Recommendations

Recommendations (2)

Private Operators

to realise business solutions for new services in inland navigation

to use information technology to improve traffic management and to strengthen logistic processes

to use the chances for intermodal transport

to use the advantages of the waterway and locate industrial plants at ports

Ports

to optimise intermodal information exchange at ports

to use the IT solutions to develop into intermodal logistics centres

to improve the interfaces to the railways

Österreichisches Institut für Raumplanung

Franz-Josefs-Kai 27 A-1010 Wien

tel +43 1 5338747-0 fax +43 1 5338747-66

deussner@oir.at

www.oir.at

Thanks for Your attention !Thanks for Your attention !