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Demographic Trends
Northeast Landscape Plan Update 2012
Minnesota Forest Resources Council April 18, 2012
Population: 1970 - 2009
US Dept Commerce 2011
• Population shrank by 7%
• Employment grew by 40%
• Personal income grew (in real terms) by 75%
220,000230,000240,000250,000260,000270,000280,000 Population Trends
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000 Employment Trends
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000Personal Income Trends
Mill
ion
s o
f 2
01
1 $
s
Population
Population Growth2000 - 2010:
Carlton = 3,715 (11.7%)Cook = 8 ( 0.2%)Lake = -192 ( -1.7%)St. Louis = -302 ( -0.2%)
Region = 3,239 (1.3%)
MN = 7.8%
US = 9.7%
U.S. Census 2010
1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
NE Population: 1970 - 2010
St. Louis Lake Cook Carlton
Population Projections
U.S. Census 2010, Minnesota Demographic Office
2000 2010 2015* 2020* 2025* 2030*0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
NE Population and Projections
St.Louis Lake Cook Carlton
Minnesota
Northeast
Carlton
Cook
Lake
St.Louis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Projected Popula-tion Change (%)
2000-2030
Seasonal Population
Carlton County, MN
Cook County, MN
Lake County, MN
St. Louis County, MN
MFRC Northeast
Landscape
U.S.0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Occupied Vacant
US Dept. Commerce 2011
Population: Where is the growth?
U.S. Census 2010
2000 Urban 2000 Rural 2010 Urban 2010 Rural0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
NE Landscape
St. Louis Carlton Lake Cook
Population: Density
U.S. Census 2010
Carlton Cook Lake St. Louis NE Landscape0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Population Density (per sq. mile, land area)
199020102030*
MN
Age
MN Demographic Office
2000 2010 2020 20300
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
65+ 25-64 0-24
Gender
MN Demographic Office 2007
Male Female Male Female2010 2010 2030 2030
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80+
Changing Population
ACS 2006-2010
Under 18
18-34
35-44
45-64
65 and over
0 20,000 40,000
26,216
29,756
15,245
37,311
17,288
24,750
26,838
14,349
36,085
22,703
2010* Breakout
Female Male
-10,000 0 10,000 20,000
-5,412
3,649
-8,713
12,757
-165
Change 2000-2010*
Northeast Landscape
Race/Ethnicity
ACS 2006-2010
Wh
ite
alo
ne
Bla
ck
or
Afr
ica
n A
me
ric
an
alo
ne
Am
eri
ca
n In
dia
n a
lon
e
As
ian
alo
ne
Na
tiv
e H
aw
aiia
n &
Oth
er
Pa
cif
ic Is
. a
lon
e
So
me
oth
er
rac
e a
lon
e
Tw
o o
r m
ore
ra
ce
s
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%Population by Race, % of Total, 2010*
MFRC Northeast Landscape
U.S.0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0% 2.8%
0.8%
American Indian Popu-lation, Percent of Total,
2010*
Labor
MN Demographic Office, 2000 Census Data
2000 2010 2020 20300
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
NE Region: Labor Force Projections
65 plus45-6425-4416-24
Earnings
ACS 2006-2010
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Components of Personal Income
Labor earnings Non-labor income
Mill
ion
s o
f 2
01
1 $
s
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
0.0%5.0%
10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%
Non-Labor Income Share of Total Personal Income
Employment
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000Personal Income by Industry
Mill
ion
s o
f 2
01
1 $
s
Farm Agric. Services, Forestry, FishingMining (incl. fossil fuels) UtilitiesConstruction Manufact. (incl. forest products)Wholesale Trade Retail TradeTransportation, Warehousing InformationFinance, Insurance Real estate, Rental, LeasingProfessional, Scientific, Tech. Management of CompaniesAdmin., Waste services Educational Services
Employment
ACS 2006-2010
Northeast Landscape U.S.0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
Commodity Sectors, Percent of Private Employment, 2009
Timber % of total private em-ployment, 2009
Fossil fuels (oil, gas, & coal), 2009
Other mining, 2009
Agriculture % total employment, 2009
Employment
ACS 2006-2010
Carlton County, MN
Cook County, MN
Lake County, MN
St. Louis County, MN
MFRC Northeast
Landscape
U.S.0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Industries that include Travel & Tourism, Percent of Total Private Employment, 2009
Passenger Transportation* Retail Trade Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation*
Accommodations & Food*
Regional Highlights
• NE population = 251,654 (4.8% of MN)• NE Region added 3229 residents between 2000 and
2010 (1.3% versus 7.8% increase for MN)• County populations rank 6th, 30th, 66th and 83rd in state • Carlton County grew faster than MN. Lake and St.
Louis counties lost population • Just over half of the population is “urban”• Population density about 1/3 that of MN
Regional Highlights
• A significant seasonal population (12% housing)• Fastest growth among 45-64 (boomer) age group• Population expected to increase at rate below MN• Growth to occur in urban population?• Gender balanced but differences by cohort• Aging, shrinking (?) labor force• Services driving employment and personal labor
income• Timber, mining and tourism set region apart from MN
or US
Relative Performance, 2009
MFRC Northeast
LandscapeMinnesota
Trends
Population (percent change, 2000-2009) -0.1% 6.7%
Employment (percent change, 2000-2009) 0.8% 3.1%
Personal Income (percent change, 2000-2009) 9.1% 10.0%
Average Earnings per Job (percent change, 2000-2009) 1.2% 1.1%
Per Capita Income (percent change, 2000-2009) 9.2% 3.1%
Prosperity
Average Earnings per Job $42,744 $50,751
Per Capita Income $37,560 $43,884
Average Annual Wages - Services Related $33,605 $46,761
Average Annual Wages - Non-Services Related $56,264 $56,008
Average Annual Wages - Government Related $42,558 $47,076
Stress
Unemployment Rate (change 2000-2010) 3.6% 4.2%
Unemployment Rate 8.0% 7.3%
Structur
e
Percent of Employment in Proprietors 18.5% 20.4%
Percent of Personal Income in Non-Labor 42.6% 34.4%
Percent of Services Related Jobs 69.3% 70.8%
Percent of Non-Services Related Jobs 12.8% 17.1%
Percent of Government Jobs 16.9% 12.2%
Commuting (net residential adjustment share of personal income) -2.6% 0.0%
Earnings
ACS 2006-2010
La
bo
r e
arn
ing
s
So
cia
l S
ec
uri
ty (
SS
)
Re
tire
me
nt
inc
om
e
Su
pp
lem
en
tal
Se
cu
rity
In
co
me
(S
SI)
Ca
sh
pu
bli
c a
ss
ista
nc
e
inc
om
e
Fo
od
Sta
mp
/SN
AP
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80% 74.2%
32.1%22.1%
4.2% 3.7% 7.6%
Percent of Households Receiving Earnings, by Source, 2010*
Employment
ACS 2006-2010
Carlton County, MN
Cook County, MN
Lake County, MN
St. Louis County, MN
MFRC Northeast
Landscape
U.S.0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Services, Percent of Total Private Employment, 2009
Housing Costs
Carlton County, MN
Cook County, MN
Lake County, MN
St. Louis County, MN
MFRC Northeast
Landscape
U.S.0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Housing Costs as a Percent of Household Income, 2010*
Monthly cost >30% of household income Gross rent >30% of household income
Employment
ACS 2006-2010
Carlton County, MN
Cook County, MN
Lake County, MN
St. Louis County, MN
MFRC Northeast
Landscape
U.S.0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Government Employment, Percent of Total Employment, 2009
Population
US Dept Commerce 2010
Births Deaths Net Migration (International & Domestic)0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Components of Population Change: 2000 - 2009
English as a Second Language
ACS 2006-2010
Carlton County, MN
Cook County, MN
Lake County, MN
St. Louis County, MN
MFRC Northeast
Landscape
U.S.0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1%
8.5%
Percent of Population that Speaks English Less Than ''Very Well'', 2010*
Education
ACS 2006-2010
No high school degree
High school graduate
Associates degree
Bachelor's degree
Graduate or pro-fessional
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Educational Attainment, 2010*
MFRC Northeast Landscape U.S.
Employment
ACS 2006-2010
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Employment by Major Industry Category
Services related Non-services related Government
Employment: Commuting
ACS 2006-2010
Carlton County,
MN
Cook County,
MN
Lake County,
MN
St. Louis County,
MN
MFRC Northeast
Landscape
U.S.0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Place of Work, 2010*
Worked in county of residence
Worked outside county of residence
Carlto
nCook
Lake
St. Louis
MFRC N
orthea
stU.S
.0
10
20
30
Mean travel time to work (minutes)
Income
ACS 2006-2010
1996 2010 adjusted 20100
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Per Capita Personal Income ($)
MinnesotaCarltonCookLakeSt. Louis
Poverty
ACS 2006-2010
Carlton County, MN
Cook County, MN
Lake County, MN
St. Louis County, MN
MFRC Northeast
Landscape
U.S.0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
10.5%
8.9%
11.6%
15.1%
14.2%13.8%
7.3%
3.1%
9.3%8.8%
8.4%
10.1%
Individuals and Families Below Poverty, 2010*
People Below Poverty Families below poverty