Demographic Transition Model

What Is It?

• The relationship between birth rate and death rate has been used to create a four stage model of a country's population change, called the demographic model.

• Countries which are described as being developed have reached Stage 4.

• The UK is one of these. • Other countries are at different stages of their

development, and therefore occupy different places on the model.

Stage 1

• High birth rate (BR) and high death rate (DR), both around 35 per 1000.

• This means a relatively slow population growth. High BR due to no contraception and the need for large families.

• High BR due to diseases, poor health care, poor water quality, and a poor food supply.

• The UK was at this stage in the period up to 1750. • Only a few remote indigenous tribes, in places such

as the Amazon rainforest, exhibit these characteristics nowadays.

Stage 2

• BR remains high, at around 35 per 1000, but DR falls to about 20 per 1000 by the end of the stage.

• The DR falls due to improvements in health care, sanitation and water quality.

• There is also increased access to medicines and food.

• The UK was in this period between 1750 and 1880. • Countries such as Bangladesh, Libya and Nigeria

are currently in this stage of their development.

Stage 3

• BR falls rapidly to near 20 per 1000, and DR continues to slowly fall to around 15 per 1000.

• The fall in the BR is due to better access to contraception, more family planning education, working women getting married and having children later, less need for children as a labour source.

• DR continues to fall as health care improves further, and sanitation conditions improve.

• The UK was in this stage between 1880 and 1950. • Countries passing through this stage at present

include China and Argentina.

Stage 4

• BR and DR low, at under 10 per 1000. • Although there may be some annual

fluctuations population growth is close to zero. • The UK is in this stage at the

moment, along with countries such as the United States and Japan.

Stage 5

• It has been suggested that a new fifth stage should be added to the model, due to some countries, such as Sweden and France, having higher DR than BR, so that their populations are actually falling.