Demographic Study on Katonah-Lewisboro Area, November 2013

8/13/2019 Demographic Study on Katonah-Lewisboro Area, November 2013

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Demographic Study Update

for the

Katonah-LewisboroUnion Free School District

November 2013

Prepared By:

Richard S. Grip, Ed.D.


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Table of Contents

Page

List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... 3

Executive Summary ................................................................................................... 4

Introduction ................................................................................................... 6

Enrollment Projections from August 2012 Report ............................................................. 6

Demographic Characteristics of the Geographical Area Served by theKatonah-Lewisboro School District ......................................................................... 7

District Overview ..................................................................................................... 9

Explanation of the Cohort-Survival Ratio Method ............................................................... 11

Historical Enrollment Trends .............................................................................................. 12

Student Withdrawals and New Registrants ......................................................................... 17

First Grade Replacement ................................................................................................... 18

Birth Data ................................................................................................................... 21

Effects of Housing Growth ................................................................................................... 251. Katonah CDP ......................................................................................... 252. Town of Lewisboro ............................................................................... 263. Town of North Salem ............................................................................ 284. Town of Pound Ridge .......................................................................... 28

Homes Sales ................................................................................................... 28

Vacant Housing Units ................................................................................................... 29

Baseline Enrollment Projections ........................................................................................... 30

Projected Enrollment by Grade Configuration ..................................................................... 34

Elementary School Projections ............................................................................................ 351. Increase Miller Elementary School ....................................................... 362. Katonah Elementary School .................................................................. 383. Lewisboro Elementary School ............................................................. 40

4. Meadow Pond Elementary School ....................................................... 42

Appendix: Full-Day Kindergarten Projections ................................................................... 44


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List of Tables

Table

1. Comparison of Projected to Actual Enrollment from August 2012 Report .............................. 6

2. Demographic Characteristics of the Geographical Area Served by theKatonah-Lewisboro School District .................................................................................... 8

3. Katonah-Lewisboro Historical Enrollments from 1994-95 to 2013-14 .................................... 13

4. Historical Survival Ratios from 1994-95 to 2013-14 ................................................................ 14

5. Birth Rates and Historical Birth-to-Kindergarten Survival Ratios in theKatonah-Lewisboro School District .................................................................................. 22

6. Projected New Residential Subdivisions and Projected Number of Childrenfrom New Housing Developments in Katonah ................................................................ 25

7. Number of Building Permits by Year ....................................................................................... 26

8. Projected New Residential Subdivisions and Projected Number of Childrenfrom New Housing Developments in the Town of Lewisboro ........................................ 27

9. Number of Residential Certificates of Occupancy by Year ...................................................... 27

10. Projected Grade K-12 Enrollments for 2014-15 to 2023-24 Using Cohort-Survival Ratiosand 5 Years of Historical Data ........................................................................................... 31

11. Projected Grade K-12 Enrollments for 2014-15 to 2023-24 Using Cohort-Survival Ratiosand 6 Years of Historical Data ....................................................................................... 32

12. Projected Enrollments for Grades K-5, 6-8, and 9-12 for Each Projection Method ............ 34

13. Historical Enrollments of Increase Miller Elementary School ........................................ 36

14. Projected Enrollments of Increase Miller Elementary School ........................................ 37

15. Historical Enrollments of Katonah Elementary School .................................................. 38

16. Projected Enrollments of Katonah Elementary School ................................................... 39

17. Historical Enrollments of Lewisboro Elementary School ............................................... 40

18. Projected Enrollments of Lewisboro Elementary School ............................................... 41

19. Historical Enrollments of Meadow Pond Elementary School ......................................... 42

20. Projected Enrollments of Meadow Pond Elementary School ......................................... 43


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Executive Summary

Statistical Forecasting LLC completed a demographic study for the Katonah-LewisboroUnion Free School District as an update to the August 2012 study. Two enrollment projectionswere completed from 2014-15 through 2023-24. In the first five years, enrollment is projected to

decline to 2,635-2,650 in 2018-19, which would be a loss of 724-739 students from theSeptember 2013 enrollment of 3,374 students. In the last five years of the projection period,enrollment is projected to decline to 2,172-2,181 in 2023-24, which would be an additional lossof 463-469 students. Over the ten-year projection period, enrollment is projected to decline by1,193-1,202 students.

Historically, enrollment peaked in the district in 2005-06 when there were 4,115 students.Enrollment began declining in 2006-07 and has declined in each of the last eight years. Sincepeak enrollment occurred in 2005-06, the district has lost 741 students.

The decline in enrollment appears to be due in part to negative first grade replacement,

which occurs when the number of graduating 12th

grade students is more than the number of firstgrade students replacing them in the next year. In this study, the projected 1stgrade count wasused instead of kindergarten since the district has a half-day kindergarten program, wherebysome parents elect to send their child to a full-day kindergarten program elsewhere beforeenrolling them in the public school district for the first grade. The district has experiencednegative first grade replacement since 2006-07, ranging between 13-126 students per year. Inthe next ten years, the projected loss of students due to this phenomenon ranges between 50-144students per year.

The projected decline in enrollment is also likely due to the decline in the birth rate in theKatonah-Lewisboro attendance area. While there were 219 births in 2002, only 114 occurred in

2011. It appears that the decline in birth rates may be due to the changing age structure in theKatonah-Lewisboro area from 1990 to the present. The population has aged in the last 20 years,characterized by a reduction of people in their 20s and 30s and an increase of people in their 40sand 50s. The decreasing number of females aged 20-39 has likely led to a reduction of births.

Enrollments were also computed by the existing grade configurations. For grades K-5,enrollment is projected to decline through 2019-20 before stabilizing. Enrollment is projected tobe 983-986 students in 2023-24, which would represent a loss of 400-403 students from the2013-14 enrollment of 1,386 students. Projections were also completed for each of the districtsfour elementary schools and enrollment is projected to decline at each school. For John JayMiddle School (grades 6-8), enrollment is also projected to decline, in general, through 2023-24.

Enrollment is projected to be 486-487 students in 2023-24, which would represent a loss of 325-326 students from the 2013-14 enrollment of 812 students. For John Jay High School (grades 9-12), enrollment is projected to steadily decline through 2023-24. Enrollment is projected to be699-712 in 2023-24, which would represent a loss of 464-477 students from the 2013-14enrollment of 1,176 students.


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Regarding the impact of new housing, when comparing to our previous study, there isonly one additional proposed residential subdivision consisting of three single-family homes inLewisboro. In general, little has changed since the last report. In Katonah, the potential remainsfor one development, Bailey Hall, consisting of 21 single-family homes. In Lewisboro, thepotential exists for 100 new housing units, where approximately half are multi-family units.

There are no pending residential subdivisions in Pound Ridge or North Salem that would impactthe school district. In total, it is estimated that the potential 121 new housing units wouldgenerate approximately 79 children.

Housing occupancy rates in the Katonah-Lewisboro sending area were compared fromthe 2000 Census and the 2007-2011 American Community Survey. During this time period, theoccupancy rate declined from 94.5% to 91.9%. If the occupancy rate returns to that of 2000(94.5%), there is the potential for an additional 179 occupied units yielding 111 schoolchildren.This would be an increase of approximately 8.5 children per grade level (13 grades, K-12) for theentire district. Since there are four school buildings at the elementary level, the impact would bean additional 2.1 children per grade level per building.

In the appendix, two enrollment projections were computed for 2014-15 through 2023-24assuming implementation of a full-day kindergarten program in 2014-15. In comparing the full-day kindergarten projections with the comparable half-day kindergarten projections, there is verylittle difference in the projections. An additional 17-29 students are projected to be in the districtin 2018-19 and an additional 27-44 children in 2023-24 at the end of the ten-year projectionperiod.


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Introduction

Statistical Forecasting LLC completed a demographic study update for the Katonah-Lewisboro Union Free School District (subsequently referred to as Katonah-Lewisboro). Theprevious study was completed for the district in August 2012. The purpose of the current study

is to compute grade-by-grade enrollment projections for 2014-15 through 2023-24. Informationwas collected related to community population trends and age structure, birth rates, historicalenrollment data, house sales, and new housing starts. The update should serve as a planning toolfor the future direction of the district.

Enrollment Projections from August 2012 Report

In our previous demographic study, enrollments were projected from 2012-13 through2016-17, and were later expanded to include an additional five years through 2021-22. Table 1below compares the actual enrollments to the projected enrollments for the first two years of theprojection period. Since two different sets of projections were computed in the previous study,the table shows the percent error by year for each of the projections.

Table 1Comparison of Projected to Actual Enrollment

from August 2012 Report

YearActual

Enrollment

ProjectedEnrollment(CSR 5-Yr)

% ErrorCSR (5-Yr)

ProjectedEnrollment(CSR 6-Yr)

% ErrorCSR (6-Yr)

2012-13 3,484 3,466 -0.5% 3,464 -0.6%

2013-14 3,374 3,366 -0.2% 3,360 -0.4%

In our previous study, enrollment was predicted to decline steadily for the entire ten-yearprojection period. While the decline in enrollment has come to fruition, the projectedenrollments for the district were slightly less than the actual enrollments, indicating thatenrollment has declined less than anticipated. Error rates ranged between -0.2% to -0.5% for themethod using cohort-survival ratios based on an average of five years of historical data, andranged between -0.4% to -0.6% for the method using six years of historical data. Positive errorrates indicate over-projections while negative error rates indicate under-projections. Expressedin whole numbers, the five-year projections differed from actual enrollment by only 8-18students, while the six-year projections differed by 14-20 students.

In a survey of educational planners who complete enrollment projections, two-thirdsbelieve that an error rate of 1% per year is acceptable1. For a ten-year projection, this wouldmean that a 10% error rate would be acceptable. Both projections are well within this parameterin each year.

1Schellenberg, S. J., & Stephens, C. E. (1987). Enrollment projection: variat ions on a theme. Paper presented at the Annual Meetingof the American Educational Research Association, Washington D.C., (ERIC Document Reproduction Service No. ED 283 879)


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Demographic Characteristics of the Geographical Area Served by the

Katonah-Lewisboro School District

The National Center for Education Statistics compiles Census data by school districtgeographical boundaries, since many school district boundaries are often not contiguous with

municipal boundaries. The following information is different than that presented in the August2012 report, which looked solely at the demographic data of the communities of Katonah andLewisboro.

In Table 2 following, selected demographic characteristics of the geographical areaserved by Katonah-Lewisboro (subsequently referred to as Katonah-Lewisboro area) arecompared from the 2000 Census and the 2007-2011 American Community Survey (ACS), alsopublished by the United States Census Bureau. The information reflects the entire populationserved by the school district and is not restricted to schoolchildren. The ACS replaced the longform of the Census, last administered in 2000 to approximately 16% of the population in theUnited States. For small geographic areas such as the one served by the school district, ACS

data represent a sample collected over a five-year time period, where the estimates represent theaverage characteristics between January 2007 and December 2011. This information does notrepresent a single point in time like the long form of earlier Censuses.

Regarding the population of the Katonah-Lewisboro area, there were 17,930 residentsidentified in the 2007-2011 ACS, which is a small decline of 240 persons (-1.3%) whencompared to the 2000 Census data.

With respect to race, the Katonah-Lewisboro area is nearly entirely White. In the 2007-2011 ACS, the Katonah-Lewisboro area was 91.4% White as compared to 95.0% in the 2000Census. Asians made up the largest minority group at 3.5% in the 2007-2011 ACS, which is

more than double the 1.6% that existed in the 2000 Census. The Census Bureau does notconsider Hispanic as a separate race; rather it identifies the percentage of people having Hispanicorigin. Hispanics in the Census population can be part of the White, Black, Asian, or any of theother race categories. It is not a mutually exclusive race category. The concentration of personshaving Hispanic origin increased from 3.2% in the 2000 Census to 3.9% in the 2007-2011 ACS.

In comparing the 2000 Census to the 2007-2011 ACS, the percentage of people under theage of 18 declined from 30.7% to 29.7%. However, the number of public school children perhousehold (ages 5-17) increased from 0.586 to 0.620.

Regarding educational attainment for adults aged 25 and over, 69.3% of the population

had a bachelors degree or higher in the 2007-2011 ACS as compared to 65.2% in the 2000Census, indicating a well-educated population. Persons with graduate or professional degreesslightly increased from 30.8% to 33.7% during this time period.

Median family income increased from $126,669 in the 2000 Census to $180,159 in the2007-2011 ACS, a gain of 42.2%. The percentage of children under the age of 18 that were inpoverty has been minimal and was constant at 0.7% over this time period.


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Regarding housing, there were 6,796 housing units in the Katonah-Lewisboro area in the2007-2011 ACS, which is a gain of 191 units (+2.9%) since the 2000 Census. During this timeperiod, the occupancy rate declined from 94.5% to 91.9%. While not shown in the table, therewere 739 new housing units built in the 1990s, as compared to 277 new units built in the 2000s.A total of 174 units were built from 2000-2004 while 103 units were built after 2004.

Regarding occupied units, 9.0% of the occupied units consisted of renters in the 2007-2011 ACS, which is a decline from the 2000 Census percentage (12.0%). The median homeprice of an owner-occupied unit in the 2007-2011 ACS was $715,400, which was a 78.6% gainfrom the value reported in the 2000 Census ($400,600). With respect to housing type,approximately 92% of the homes in the 2007-2011 ACS are one-unit, either attached ordetached, which is a 1.7 percentage point gain from the 2000 Census. Housing with 2-4 unitsconsisted of 4.4% of the housing stock in the 2007-2011 ACS, which is a 1.4 percentage pointdecline from the 2000 Census. Housing with more than four units is minimal in the Katonah-Lewisboro area.

District Overview

Katonah-Lewisboro has six schools that serve children in grades kindergarten throughtwelve. The district receives children from the unincorporated hamlet of Katonah in the Town ofBedford, approximately the northern one-third of the Town of Bedford, the Town of Lewisboro,and also small sections of the towns of Pound Ridge and North Salem. There are fourelementary schools containing grades K-5 (Increase Miller, Katonah, Lewisboro, and MeadowPond). John Jay Middle School contains grades 6-8 while John Jay High School contains grades9-12. Locations of the schools are shown in Figure 1.

In this study, historical enrollments from 1994-95 through 2013-14 were obtained fromthe New York State BEDS reports and Katonah-Lewisboro and were used to project enrollmentsfor ten years into the future. Future enrollments were projected using the Cohort-Survival Ratiomethod.


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Figure 1School Locations - Katonah-Lewisboro Union Free School Distri


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Explanation of the Cohort-Survival Ratio Method

In 1930, Dublin and Lodka provided an explicit age breakdown, which enabled analyststo follow each cohort through its life stages and apply appropriate birth and death rates for eachgeneration. A descendant of this process is the Cohort-Survival Ratio (CSR) method, which is

used to project public school enrollments. In this method, a survival ratio is computed for eachgrade progression, which essentially compares the number of students in a particular grade to thenumber of students in the previous grade during the previous year. The survival ratio indicateswhether the enrollment is stable, increasing, or decreasing. A survival ratio of one indicatesstable enrollment, less than one indicates declining enrollment, while greater than one indicatesincreasing enrollment. If, for example, a school district had 100 fourth graders and the next yearonly had 95 fifth graders, the survival ratio would be 0.95.

The CSR method assumes that what happened in the past will also happen in the future.In essence, this method provides a linear projection of the population. The CSR method is mostapplicable for districts that have relatively stable increasing or decreasing trends without any

major unpredictable fluctuations from year to year. In school districts encountering rapid growthnot experienced historically (a change in the historical trend), the CSR method must be modifiedand supplemented with additional information.

In this study, survival ratios were calculated using historical data from the last twentyyears for birth to kindergarten, kindergarten to first grade, first grade to second grade, etc. Dueto the fluctuation in survival ratios from year to year, it is appropriate to calculate an averagesurvival ratio, which is then used to calculate grade enrollments ten years into the future.


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Historical Enrollment Trends

Historical enrollment for Katonah-Lewisboro from 1994-95 through 2013-14 are shownin Figure 2 and Table 3. Figure 3 following shows the change in K-12 enrollment by year.Enrollment increased in the district through 2002-03 where it was then essentially constant for

three years. Peak enrollment occurred in 2005-06 when there were 4,115 students in the district.Enrollment began declining in 2006-07 and has declined in each of the last eight years.Enrollment in the district as of September 2013 was 3,374 students, which represents a loss of741 students since the peak enrollment in 2005-06. Table 3 also shows computed averagesurvival ratios based on the last five and six years of historical data, which will be used to projectfuture enrollment. The average survival ratios also indicate the net migration by grade, wherevalues over 1.000 reflect inward migration, while values below 1.000 reflect outward migration.Nine of the 13 average survival ratios in the five-year trend were below 1.000 (for grades 4 andup), indicating a general net outward migration in the district.

Table 4 shows computed grade-by-grade survival ratios for the past twenty years, 1994-

95 to 2013-14. In addition, the average, minimum, and maximum survival ratios are shown forthe past twenty years along with the five- and six-year averages used in this study to projectenrollment. Survival ratios from birth-to-kindergarten could not be computed for the entiretwenty-year period since birth data by the school districts geographical boundaries were notavailable prior to 2002. Finally, the differences between the six-year averages and twenty-yearaverages were computed for each grade progression. The differences were very small, indicatingthe long-term stability of the survival ratios over different periods of enrollment growth anddecline in the district.

Figure 2Historical K-12 Enrol lment from 1994-95 to 2013-14

3,3043,449

3,6563,787

3,9103,9874,112

3,9493,8803,868

4,1154,1114,048

3,141

4,109 4,041

3,3743,4843,580

3,773

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1994-

95

1995-

96

1996-

97

1997-

98

1998-

99

1999-

00

2000-

01

2001-

02

2002-

03

2003-

04

2004-

05

2005-

06

2006-

07

2007-

08

2008-

09

2009-

10

2010-

11

2011-

12

2012-

13

2013-

14

Year

Num

berofStudents


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Table 3Katonah-Lewisboro HistoricalEnrol lments f rom 1994-95 to 2013-

Year1 K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 SE2K

To

1994-95 330 282 249 254 246 225 247 257 217 232 185 194 161 62 1,6

1995-96 308 340 290 251 264 244 232 245 260 217 233 179 193 48 1,7

1996-97 288 327 339 298 263 265 260 237 247 261 222 219 178 45 1,8

1997-98 301 321 342 350 301 278 279 271 241 250 261 205 218 38 1,9

1998-99 329 320 330 361 355 319 288 277 268 230 251 254 203 2 2,0

1999-00 300 353 315 337 351 354 332 292 279 271 227 251 244 4 2,0

2000-01 302 321 354 321 346 357 350 343 290 288 265 218 229 3 2,0

2001-02 297 318 325 363 315 349 356 346 340 289 285 251 211 3 1,9

2002-03 298 323 313 325 355 311 330 355 346 328 285 283 257 3 1,9

2003-04 268 317 315 309 327 362 321 327 352 334 321 269 284 5 1,9

2004-05 269 287 315 318 307 328 367 319 319 362 328 316 267 7 1,82005-06 285 294 289 306 320 305 318 369 319 310 349 327 315 9 1,8

2006-07 235 302 283 299 310 320 308 320 371 323 304 348 318 0 1,7

2007-08 251 260 300 281 305 312 305 307 317 355 309 303 344 0 1,7

2008-09 260 261 264 309 281 309 314 311 312 308 350 306 295 0 1,6

2009-10 262 279 257 266 313 286 303 310 317 307 313 352 303 0 1,6

2010-11 215 275 282 267 271 318 278 296 305 314 299 302 351 0 1,6

2011-12 190 225 279 272 252 269 306 275 287 304 314 290 294 23 1,4

2012-13 189 197 230 280 278 248 265 308 285 273 299 319 288 25 1,4

2013-14 174 210 195 233 279 277 242 267 303 279 275 300 322 18 1,3Average

5-Year Ratios1.25063 1.0610 1.0093 1.0050 0.9952 0.9972 0.9738 0.9950 0.9934 0.9793 0.9912 0.9885 0.9932 0.00754

Average6-Year Ratios

1.24093 1.0634 1.0044 1.0055 0.9988 1.0013 0.9751 0.9934 0.9985 0.9802 0.9962 0.9919 0.9926 0.00754

Notes: 1Data were obtained from the New York State Department of Education BEDS reports and the Katonah-Lewisboro U2Ungraded special education enrollment3Birth-to-kindergarten ratio based on birth data five years prior4Average proportion of self-contained special education/Ungraded students with respect to K-12 subtotals based on three years


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Figure 3

Change in Enrollment by Year

163

207

131 123

7761 64

6

-95 -96-110

-193

-69

-92-74

-12-2

-1

145

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Year

NumberofStudents


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Historical enrollments are also shown in Table 3 and Figure 4 by level (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12), which represents the current configuration of the school district. Self-contained specialeducation/ungraded students were incorporated into the totals by level as well as for the district-wide total.

Figure 4Histor ical Enrollment by Level from 1994-95 to 2013-14

1,3861,4371,497

1,6281,6631,6841,709

1,7491,800

1,831

1,9031,9281,970

2,0042,014

2,016

1,931

1,825

1,745

1,648

1,042

1,0311,000 1,005 1,006 999

929 937 930879 871 858

812

737

983

721 744791

833903

1,0361,000

1,1761,1891,212

1,2661,2751,2591,3111,2931,3091,273

1,2081,153

934 938993

880

822772

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

19

94-

95

19

95-

96

19

96-

97

19

97-

98

19

98-

99

19

99-

00

20

00-

01

20

01-

02

20

02-

03

20

03-

04

20

04-

05

20

05-

06

20

06-

07

20

07-

08

20

08-

09

20

09-

10

20

10-

11

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11-

12

20

12-

13

20

13-

14

Year

NumberofStuden

ts

Gr. K-5 Gr. 6-8 Gr. 9-12

At the K-5 level, enrollment increased through 1998-99, peaking at 2,016 students. For

the past fourteen years (1999-2013), enrollment has been declining. As of September 2013,enrollment was 1,386 students, which represents a loss of 630 students from the peak enrollment

in 1998-99.


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For John Jay Middle School containing grades 6-8, enrollment increased through 2001-02, peaking at 1,042 students. While enrollment was essentially constant at approximately 1,000students from 2003-04 to 2006-07, enrollment has been declining since. Grade 6-8 enrollment inthe district was 812 students in 2013-14, which represents a loss of 230 students from the peakenrollment in 2001-02.

For John Jay High School, which contains grades 9-12, enrollment increased, in generalthrough 2007-08, peaking at 1,311 students. Enrollment was fairly stable from 2008-09 through2010-11 before declining in the last three years. The high school has had the smallest enrollmentdecline of the three grade configurations. As of September 2013, enrollment was 1,176 students,which represents a loss of 135 students from the peak enrollment in 2007-08.

Student Withdrawals and New Registrants

Student withdrawals and new registrants were reviewed from the end of the 2012-13

school year through September 10, 2013. A total of 96 students withdrew from the districtduring this time period while 104 new students entered the district. Of the 96 withdrawals, 44students (46%) moved out of the district. The remaining 52 students are either being home-schooled or are now attending private or parochial schools. Twelve of these students (23%) leftKatonah-Lewisboro to attend the Harvey School in Katonah.


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First Grade Replacement

The district has experienced negative first grade replacement since 2006-07, rangingbetween 13-126 students per year. Negative first grade replacement occurs when the number ofgraduating 12

thgrade students is larger than the number of first grade students replacing them in

the next year. Positive first grade replacement occurs when the number of graduating 12th

gradestudents is less than the number of first grade students entering the district in the next year.Positive first grade replacement occurred when the district was growing in the 1990s and early2000s. Typically, the outgoing 12

th grade student population is compared to the incoming

kindergarten class. However, since Katonah-Lewisboro has a half-day kindergarten program, itis more appropriate to compare the 12

th grade student population to the first grade student

population, as the district gains a number of students from kindergarten to first grade whenparents elect to send their child to a full-day kindergarten program elsewhere before enrollingthem in the public school district for the first grade. As shown in Figure 5, the loss of studentsdue to first grade replacement was 78 students in 2013-14, as 288 twelfth graders graduated in2012-13 and were replaced by 210 first grade students in 2013-14.

How much of the districts enrollment change can be attributed to first gradereplacement? Using the data from Figures 3 and 5, Figure 6 shows the annual change inenrollment compared to first grade replacement. As Figure 6 shows, there is a strongrelationship between the districts annual change in enrollment and first grade replacement. Inthe recent instances where the change in enrollment exceeded the negative first gradereplacement, this indicates that the district is also experiencing a net outward migration ofstudents in the other grades as well. This was confirmed earlier as nine of 13 average survivalratios in the five-year trend were below 1.000 (Table 3).


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Figure 5

Historical First Grade Replacement

143

102

150

7789

112

60

3

27

-13

-58

-83

-16-28

-97

-78

179

-126

134

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Year

NumberofStudents

Figure 6

Comparison of K-12 Enrollment Change

and First Grade Replacement

163

145

207

131

61 64

-1 -2

6

-74-92

-69

-95

-193

-110

179

143

102

150

89112

60

3

27

-13

-58

-83

-28

-126

-97-78

123

77

-96

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77

-16

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1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Year

NumberofStudents

Enrollment Change First Grade Replacement


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Birth Data

Birth data were needed to compute kindergarten enrollment, which was calculated asfollows. Birth data, lagged five years behind their respective kindergarten classes, were used tocalculate the survival ratio for each birth-to-kindergarten cohort. For instance, in 2008, there

were a combined total of 152 births in the Katonah-Lewisboro area. Five years later (the 2013-14 school year), 174 children enrolled in kindergarten, which is equal to a survival ratio of 1.145from birth to kindergarten. Birth counts and birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios are displayed inTable 5 and Figure 7. Values greater than 1.000 indicate that some children are born outside of aschool districts attendance boundaries and are attending kindergarten in the school district fiveyears later, i.e. an inward migration of children into the district. This type of inward migration istypical in school districts with excellent reputations, because the appeal of a good school districtdraws families into the community. Inward migration is also seen in communities where thereare a large number of new housing starts, with families moving into the community havingchildren of age to attend kindergarten. Birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios that are below 1.000indicate that a number of children born within a community are not attending kindergarten in the

school district five years later. This is common in communities where a high proportion ofchildren attend private, parochial, or out-of-district special education facilities, or where there isa net migration of families moving out of the community. It is also common in school districtsthat have a half-day kindergarten program, where parents choose to send their child to a privatefull-day kindergarten for the first year.

Birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios have been consistently greater than 1.000 inKatonah-Lewisboro and have ranged from 1.145 to 1.377 in the last seven years. Since birthdata by the districts geographical area were not available prior to 2002, birth-to-kindergartensurvival ratios could not be computed prior to 2002.

Birth data were geocoded by the New York State Department of Health for 2002-2011 byassigning geographic coordinates to a birth mother based on her street address. Birth data werenot yet available for 2012. The geocoded birth data allowed for the tabulation of births by theschool districts attendance area. Birth rates were estimated for 2012-2018 since these cohortswill become the kindergarten classes of 2017-2023. The estimate was computed by averagingthe number of births from 2009-2011 and using this value (123) over the entire timeframe.


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Table 5Birth Rates and Historical Bir th-to-Kindergarten Survival Ratios

in the Katonah-Lewisboro School Distr ict

Birth Year1

Total Number of

Births in SchoolAttendance Area

Number of

KindergartenStudents FiveYears Later

Birth-to-

KindergartenSurvival Ratio

2002 219 251 1.146

2003 218 260 1.193

2004 192 262 1.365

2005 176 215 1.222

2006 138 190 1.377

2007 165 189

1.1582008 152 174 1.145

2009 117 N/A N/A

2010 138 N/A N/A

2011 114

N/A N/A

Notes: 1Birth data were provided by the New York State Department of Health for 2002-2011.

As Figure 7 shows, the number of births in the Katonah-Lewisboro attendance area hasbeen declining, in general, since 2002. While there were 219 births in 2002, only 114 occurredin 2011, which is a decline of more than 100 births in a decade.

Figure 7

Historical Birth Data from 2002-2011

114

138

117

152165

138

176192

218219

0

50

100

150

200

250

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

Numb

erofBirths


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It appears that the decline in birth rates may be due to the changing age structure in theKatonah-Lewisboro area. The age pyramid of males and females in the Katonah-Lewisboro areafrom the 1990 Census, 2000 Census, and 2007-2011 ACS are shown in Figures 8-10. Thefigures show the aging population of the Katonah-Lewisboro area in the last 20 years,characterized by a reduction of people in their 20s and 30s and an increase of people in their 40s

and 50s. The decreasing number of females aged 20-39 has likely led to a reduction of births.

Figure 8

Population Pyramid o f Geographical Area

of Katonah-Lewisboro School District

1990 Census

7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0%

Under 5

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

AgeClasses

Percent

FemalesMales


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Figure 9

Population Pyramid of Geographical Area


2000 Census

7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0%

Under 5

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

AgeClasses

Percent

Females

Males

Figure 10

Population Pyramid o f Geographical Area


2007-2011 ACS Data

7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0%

Under 5

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

AgeClasses

Percent

Females

Males


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Effects of Housing Growth

Planning and Zoning Departments were contacted in Bedford, Lewisboro, Pound Ridge,and North Salem to provide a status update regarding the potential for new housing as reported inthe August 2012 demographic study. In general, little has changed since the last report.

1. Katonah CDP

Ms. Gail Amyot, Planning Board Secretary for the Town of Bedford, providedinformation regarding current and future development in the hamlet of Katonah. In Table 6following, a list of proposed housing developments is reproduced from the last study and thepotential number of children that may come from the development. Ms. Amyot stated that thereis the potential for one development, Bailey Hall, consisting of 21 single-family homes inKatonah, which is unchanged from the last demographic study. There are no other residentialsubdivision applications before the planning board. It is estimated that a total of 18 childrenwould come from Bailey Hall based on a student yield of 0.878 children2 (grades K-12) per

single-family home.

Table 6Potential New Residential Subdivisions and Projected Number of Children

from New Housing Developments in Katonah

Development Number

of Units

PotentialNumber

ofChildren

(K-12)

HousingType

Notes

Bailey Hall 21 18 Single-FamilyNot yet under construction. In FEIS phase(Final Environmental Impact Statement).

No change in status since 2012 report.

Total 21 18

Source: Town of Bedford Planning Board Secretary

2Listokin, David, et al. (2006). Who Lives in New Jersey Housing?, Rutgers University Center for Urban Policy Research.


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With respect to historical new construction, the number of building permits issued fornew residential housing units in Bedford and served by the Katonah-Lewisboro School Districthas been limited as shown in Table 7. A total of 14 building permits have been issued from2008-2013.

Table 7Number of Building Permits by Year

Town of Bedford(Katonah-Lewisborosending area only)

Year Total

2008 2

2009 3

2010 5

2011 2

2012 12013

(through 10/25)1

Total 14

Source: Town of Bedford Building Department

2. Town of Lewisboro

Ms. Lisa Pisera, Lewisboro Planning Board Secretary, provided information regarding

current and future development in the community. A list of potential developments, number ofnew housing units, and potential number of children is shown in Table 8. The table is identicalto the one produced in the August 2012 demographic study with two exceptions. First, OakridgeGardens has now been approved. Second, a new subdivision has been added to the table, ToddManagement Subdivision, which will contain three new single-family homes. It is estimated thata total of 61 children in grades K-12 would come from the 100 new housing units, based on astudent yield of 0.878 children per single-family home and 0.234 children per multi-familyhome, the latter of which was derived from 65 K-12 children currently living in 278 units inOakridge Gardens.

With respect to historical new construction, the number of certificates of occupancy

(COs) issued for new homes in Lewisboro has been minimal as shown in Table 9. A total of20 COs were issued for single-family homes from 2008-2013.


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3. Town of North Salem

Ms. Cynthia Curtis, North Salem Planning Board Chairwoman, provided informationregarding current and future development in the section of the town that sends to Katonah-Lewisboro. Ms. Curtis stated that there are no potential developments in that section of the

town, which is unchanged from our last demographic study.

4. Town of Pound Ridge

Ms. Karen Taft, Pound Ridge Planning Board Secretary, provided information regardingcurrent and future development in the section of the town that sends to Katonah-LewisboroSchool. Ms. Taft stated that there are no potential developments in that section of the town,which is unchanged from our last demographic study.

Home Sales

In Figure 11 following, the number of annual homes sales is shown from 2000-2013 forthe area served by Katonah-Lewisboro. Homes sales are broken down for single-family homesand for condos as of March 2013. As the table shows, home sales peaked in 2004 with 318 salesbut declined steeply beginning in 2008 during the banking and financial crisis. There were only131 home sales in 2009, which is nearly a 59% decline since 2004. There were a total of 197home sales in 2012, which is nearly a 30% gain from 2011.

Despite the increased number of home sales, it is unclear what the impact will be onenrollment, if any, on Katonah-Lewisboro. When a home is sold, one of three things may occur.First, homes may be sold by families with children and purchased by people without children

resulting in a net loss of children. Second, a home may be sold by empty-nesters andpurchased by families with children resulting in a net gain of children. Finally, there aresituations where homes are sold by families with children and purchased by families withchildren, potentially resulting in no net change in the number of children if their families are thesame size. It is not correct to assume that a home sold will result in a net gain of children, or topossibly assume that all homes are being sold by retirees and purchased by families withchildren. Since the demographic characteristics of the buyer and sellers (i.e., family size) are notcollected from any source, it is unclear whether the district has been losing or gaining students asa result of home sales.


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Figure 11

Home Sales from 2000 to 2013

267275

219

168

27

197

152

131

167

250

299

318

297283

26

181

141155

242 240

257

229

272260

187

219

147

115

116111316

203132

394646

4027

41

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

HomeSales

Total Single-Family Condos

Vacant Housing Units

As discussed earlier in the report, the occupancy rate in the area served by the schooldistrict is 91.9% from the 2007-2011 ACS data source. If the occupancy rate returns to that of2000 (94.5%), what potentially could be the impact upon the district? Using the 2007-2011 ACSdata, there are 6,796 housing units in the Katonah-Lewisboro sending area. If the occupancy rateof 2000 is reached, there would be 6,422 occupied units, which is 179 more units than reportedin the 2007-11 ACS data. As shown in Table 2, there are approximately 0.620 public schoolchildren per household (ages 5-17) in the Katonah-Lewisboro sending area. Multiplying thisvalue by the additional 179 units yields the potential for an additional 111 schoolchildren. Thiswould be an increase of approximately 8.5 children per grade level (13 grades, K-12) for theentire district. Since there are four school buildings at the elementary level, the impact would bean additional 2.1 children per grade level per building.


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Baseline Enrollment Projections

Baseline enrollment projections were calculated using cohort-survival ratios based on thelast five and six years of historical enrollment data. Enrollments were computed for each gradefor the ten-year period of 2014-15 through 2023-24. It should be noted that a five-year

projection is more reliable than a ten-year projection. Since birth data are used to projectkindergarten students five years later, the ten-year projection in years 6-10 relies on estimatedbirth counts in order to project the number of kindergarten students. For instance, in the 6

thyear

of the ten-year projection, which corresponds to 2019-20, birth data from 2014 would be used toproject the number of kindergarten students, and would therefore need to be estimated. For thisreason, elementary projections are much more susceptible to higher error rates in a ten-yearprojection as compared to middle or high school projections, which rely on either children thathave already been born or that are currently enrolled in the district.

Enrollments for the ungraded special education classes were computed by calculating thehistorical proportion of ungraded special education students with respect to the K-12 subtotals

and multiplying that value by the future general education K-12 subtotals. Since the district hasonly reported ungraded special education students in the last three years, the three-year averageproportion displayed in Table 3 was used to estimate the future number of ungraded specialeducation students in both enrollment projection calculations.

Projected K-12 enrollment for the entire district using cohort-survival ratios based onhistorical data from the last five years follows in Table 10 and Figure 12. Using this method,total enrollment is projected to decline throughout the projection period, which appears to bepartially due to negative first grade replacement. In the first five years, enrollment is projected todecline to 2,635 in 2018-19, which would be a loss of 739 students from the September 2013enrollment of 3,374 students. In the last five years of the projection period, enrollment is

projected to decline to 2,172 in 2023-24, which would be an additional loss of 463 students.Over the ten-year projection period, enrollment is projected to decline by 1,202 students.


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Table 10Projected Grade K-12 Enrollments for 2014-15 to 2023-24

Using Cohort-Survival Ratios and 5 Years of Historical Data

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Sp.

Ed

K-12

Total

2014-15 146 185 212 196 232 278 270 241 265 297 277 272 298 20 3,189

2015-16 173 155 187 213 195 231 271 269 239 260 294 274 270 19 3,050

2016-17 143 184 156 188 212 194 225 270 267 234 258 291 272 18 2,912

2017-18 154 152 186 157 187 211 189 224 268 261 232 255 289 18 2,783

2018-19 154 163 153 187 156 186 205 188 223 262 259 229 253 17 2,635

2019-20 154 163 165 154 186 156 181 204 187 218 260 256 227 16 2,527

2020-21 154 163 165 166 153 185 152 180 203 183 216 257 254 15 2,446

2021-22 154 163 165 166 165 153 180 151 179 199 181 214 255 15 2,3402022-23 154 163 165 166 165 165 149 179 150 175 197 179 213 14 2,234

2023-24 154 163 165 166 165 165 161 148 178 147 173 195 178 14 2,172

Figure 12


Baseline Enrollment Projections for 2014-15 to 2023-24

2,1722,234

2,3402,4462,527

3,189

3,0502,912

2,7832,635

2,920

2,1812,245

2,3542,463

2,542

2,794

3,056

3,192

2,650

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24

Year

NumberofStudents

CSR 5-Yr. CSR 6-Yr.


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Projected K-12 enrollment for the entire district using cohort-survival ratios based onhistorical data from the last six years follows in Table 11 and Figure 12. Using this method, totalenrollment is again projected to decline throughout the projection period, which appears to bepartially due to negative first grade replacement. The projections in Table 11 are very similar tothose in the previous table. In the first five years, enrollment is projected to decline to 2,650 in

2018-19, which would be a loss of 724 students from the September 2013 enrollment of 3,374students. In the last five years of the projection period, enrollment is projected to decline to2,181 in 2023-24, which would be an additional loss of 469 students. Over the ten-yearprojection period, enrollment is projected to decline by 1,193 students.

Table 11Projected Grade K-12 Enrollments for 2014-15 to 2023-24

Using Cohort-Survival Ratios and 6 Years of Historical Data

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Sp.

Ed

K-12

Total

2014-15 145 185 211 196 233 279 270 240 267 297 278 273 298 20 3,192

2015-16 171 154 186 212 196 233 272 268 240 262 296 276 271 19 3,056

2016-17 141 182 155 187 212 196 227 270 268 235 261 294 274 18 2,920

2017-18 153 150 183 156 187 212 191 226 270 263 234 259 292 18 2,794

2018-19 153 163 151 184 156 187 207 190 226 265 262 232 257 17 2,650

2019-20 153 163 164 152 184 156 182 206 190 222 264 260 230 16 2,542

2020-21 153 163 164 165 152 184 152 181 206 186 221 262 258 16 2,463

2021-22 153 163 164 165 165 152 179 151 181 202 185 219 260 15 2,3542022-23 153 163 164 165 165 165 148 178 151 177 201 184 217 14 2,245

2023-24 153 163 164 165 165 165 161 147 178 148 176 199 183 14 2,181


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In each instance, the decline in enrollment appears to be partially due to negative firstgrade replacement. In the next ten years, the loss of students due to this phenomenon rangesbetween 50-144 students per year (Figure 13) for each of the two enrollment projectioncalculations.

Figure 13


Projected First Grade Replacement

-86-90-89

-94

-50

-92-91

-64

-126-120

-143-137

-54

-97-95

-67

-129-124

-144-137

-170

-150

-130

-110

-90

-70

-50

-30

-102014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24

Year

NumberofStudents

CSR 5-yr. CSR 6-yr.


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Projected Enrollment By Configuration

In Table 12 following, historical and projected enrollments are broken down by thecurrent grade configurations (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12) in Katonah-Lewisboro for each of theenrollment projection calculations. Ungraded special education students were reassigned into

each of the school configurations using historical enrollment proportions.

Table 12Projected Enrollments for Grades K-5, 6-8,

and 9-12 for Each Projection Method

HISTORICAL K-5 6-8 9-12

2013-14 1,386 812 1,176

PROJECTEDK-5CSR5-YR

K-5CSR6-YR

6-8CSR5-YR

6-8CSR6-YR

9-12CSR5-YR

9-12

CSR6-YR

2014-15 1,261 1,261 776 777 1,152 1,1542015-16 1,165 1,163 779 780 1,106 1,113

2016-17 1,088 1,084 762 765 1,062 1,071

2017-18 1,058 1,052 681 687 1,044 1,055

2018-19 1,009 1,004 616 623 1,010 1,023

5-year Change -377 -382 -196 -189 -166 -153

2019-20 988 982 572 578 967 982

2020-21 995 991 535 539 916 933

2021-22 975 971 510 511 855 872

2022-23 986 983 478 477 770 7852023-24 986 983 487 486 699 712

5-year Change -23 -21 -129 -137 -311 -311

10-year Change -400 -403 -325 -326 -477 -464

At the elementary level containing grades K-5, enrollment is projected to decline through2019-20 before stabilizing. The stabilization in enrollment is related to holding theprojected number of births from 2012-2018 constant, which results in constant

kindergarten counts five years later and subsequent elementary grades. The CSR methodbased on five and six years of historical data is projecting enrollment to be 983-986 students in2023-24, which would represent a loss of 400-403 students from the 2013-14 enrollment of1,386 students. In the last five years, the decline is projected to be 21-23 students, which ismuch less than the projected decline of 377-382 students in the first five years.

For John Jay Middle School (grades 6-8), enrollment is also projected to decline, ingeneral, through 2023-24. The CSR method based on five and six years of historical data isprojecting enrollment to be 486-487 students in 2023-24, which would represent a loss of 325-


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326 students from the 2013-14 enrollment of 812 students. Like the elementary configuration,the decline in the first five years is projected to be greater, 189-196 students, as compared to thedecline in the last five years (129-137 students).

For John Jay High School (grades 9-12), enrollment is projected to steadily decline

through 2023-24. Enrollment is projected to be 699-712 in 2023-24, which would represent aloss of 464-477 students from the 2013-14 enrollment of 1,176 students. The decline inenrollment is projected to be smaller in the first five years (153-166 students) as compared to thelast five years of the projection period (311 students).

Elementary School Projections

In Tables 13-20 following, historical and projected enrollments are broken down for eachof the four elementary schools in the district. Grades one through five were computed usingcohort survival ratios based on the last six years. Kindergarten enrollment was not computed

using birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios as performed earlier in the district-wide projections.Instead, historical proportions of the number of kindergarten students in each elementary schoolwere used and multiplied by the projected kindergarten enrollment shown previously in Table 11(the six-year trend). Projected ungraded special education students were assigned to eitherIncrease Miller or Katonah Elementary Schools based on the proportions from the 2012-13school year, as BEDS data was not available for 2013-14. While the sums of the projected gradecounts by school do not exactly equal the K-5 counts shown in Table 12, they are within areasonable tolerance.


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2. Katonah Elementary School

Historical enrollment for Katonah Elementary School from 2008-09 to 2013-14 areshown below in Table 15. In 2013-14, enrollment was 372 students, which is a loss of 125students since 2008-09. Most of the enrollment decline has occurred in the last three years, as

enrollment has dropped by 106 students.

Table 15Historical Enrollments of Katonah Elementary School

Year1 K 1 2 3 4 5 Sp. EdK-5

Total

2008-09 80 76 90 83 80 88 0 497

2009-10 66 80 82 91 87 84 0 490

2010-11 61 72 85 84 90 86 0 478

2011-12 61 61 70 79 81 89 4 445

2012-13 54 60 63 69 80 77 4 407

2013-14 44 54 62 64 69 79 0 372

CSR 6-Yr. Ratios 0.26932 1.0149 1.0359 0.9933 1.0028 0.9931 0.26673

Notes: 1Data as provided by the New York State Department of Education BEDS reports and the Katonah-LewisboroUnion Free School District2Two-yearaverage proportion of kindergarten students with respect to district totals3Proportion of ungraded elementary students in 2012-13 school year


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Enrollment is projected to decline to 261 students in 2023-24, which would be a loss of111 students from the 2013-14 enrollment of 372 students as shown in Table 16. In the first fiveyears of the projection period, a loss of 109 students is projected while enrollment is projected tobe essentially constant in the last five years of the projection period due to holding the projectednumber of births from 2012-2018 constant, which results in constant kindergarten counts five

years later and subsequent elementary grades.

Table 16Projected Enrollments of Katonah Elementary School

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Sp. EdK-5

Total

2014-15 39 45 56 62 64 69 3 338

2015-16 46 40 47 56 62 64 3 318

2016-17 38 47 41 47 56 62 3 294

2017-18 41 39 49 41 47 56 3 276

2018-19 41 42 40 49 41 47 3 263

5-year Change -109

2019-20 41 42 44 40 49 41 3 260

2020-21 41 42 44 44 40 49 3 263

2021-22 41 42 44 44 44 40 2 257

2022-23 41 42 44 44 44 44 2 261

2023-24 41 42 44 44 44 44 2 261

5-year Change -2

10-year Change -111


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3. Lewisboro Elementary School

Historical enrollment for Lewisboro Elementary School from 2008-09 to 2013-14 areshown below in Table 17. In 2013-14, enrollment was 350 students. Enrollment has beensteadily declining in the school, losing 89 students since 2008-09. Most of the enrollment

decline has occurred in the last three years, as enrollment has dropped by 84 students.

Table 17Historical Enrollments of Lewisboro Elementary School

Year1 K 1 2 3 4 5 Sp. EdK-5

Total

2008-09 60 59 73 83 81 83 0 439

2009-10 69 69 58 74 89 80 0 439

2010-11 46 73 75 64 83 93 0 434

2011-12 39 53 73 77 62 81 0 385

2012-13 43 45 59 79 79 60 0 365

2013-14 48 47 45 58 76 76 0 350

CSR 6-Yr. Ratios 0.25172 1.1214 1.0366 1.0418 1.0301 0.9876 0.00003



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4. Meadow Pond Elementary School

Historical enrollment for Meadow Pond Elementary School from 2008-09 to 2013-14 areshown below in Table 19. In 2013-14, enrollment was 308 students, which is a loss of 74students from 2008-09. Enrollment has been steadily declining in the school over this time

period.

Table 19Historical Enrol lments of Meadow Pond Elementary School

Year1 K 1 2 3 4 5 Sp. EdK-5

Total

2008-09 59 57 48 80 67 71 0 382

2009-10 63 64 54 50 76 69 0 376

2010-11 46 61 61 54 46 77 0 345

2011-12 48 47 68 57 50 51 0 321

2012-13 40 46 49 68 58 51 0 312

2013-14 31 46 46 55 71 59 0 308

CSR 6-Yr. Ratios 0.19492 1.0366 1.0115 1.0197 0.9715 1.0377 0.00003



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As shown in Table 20, enrollment at Meadow Pond Elementary School is projected todecline to 187 in 2023-24, which would be a loss of 121 students from the 2013-14 enrollment of308 students. In the first five years of the projection period, a loss of 122 students is projectedwhile enrollment is projected to be essentially constant in the last five years of the projectionperiod due to holding the projected number of births from 2012-2018 constant, which results in

constant kindergarten counts five years later and subsequent elementary grades.

Table 20Projected Enrollments of Meadow Pond Elementary School

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Sp. EdK-5

Total

2014-15 28 32 47 47 53 74 0 281

2015-16 33 29 32 48 46 55 0 243

2016-17 27 34 29 33 47 48 0 218

2017-18 30 28 34 30 32 49 0 203

2018-19 30 31 28 35 29 33 0 186

5-year Change -122

2019-20 30 31 31 29 34 30 0 185

2020-21 30 31 31 32 28 35 0 187

2021-22 30 31 31 32 31 29 0 184

2022-23 30 31 31 32 31 32 0 187

2023-24 30 31 31 32 31 32 0 187

5-year Change +1

10-year Change -121


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Appendix: Full-Day Kindergarten Projections

The following section provides enrollment projections for 2014-15 through 2023-24assuming implementation of a full-day kindergarten program in 2014-15. To complete theprojections, historical birth-to-first grade survival ratios were computed and used to project the

number of full-day kindergarten students. It was assumed that the total number of studentsattending in the first grade would be comparable to a full-day kindergarten program. Once theprogram is implemented, the district is no longer likely to see an increase in the number ofstudents from kindergarten to first grade. For this reason, the kindergarten-to-first grade survivalratio was changed to 1.000, as there is no historical data to determine what this survival ratio willbe.

District Projections

Two sets of enrollment projections were completed for grades K-12. The survival ratiosshown previously in Table 3 were also used in this analysis, with the exception of the birth-to-

kindergarten and kindergarten-to-first grade ratios.

In Table A1 following, cohort-survival ratios based on historical data from the last fiveyears were used to project enrollment. Total enrollment is projected to decline throughout theprojection period. In the first five years, enrollment is projected to decline to 2,652 in 2018-19,which would be a loss of 722 students from the September 2013 enrollment of 3,374 students. Inthe last five years of the projection period, enrollment is projected to decline to 2,199 in 2023-24,which would be an additional loss of 453 students. Over the ten-year projection period,enrollment is projected to decline by 1,175 students.

Table A1Projected Grade K-12 Enrollments with Full-Day Kindergarten for

2014-15 to 2023-24 Using Cohort-Survival Ratios and 5 Years of Histor ical Data

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Sp.Ed

K-12Total

2014-15 157 185 212 196 232 278 270 241 265 297 277 272 298 20 3,200

2015-16 185 157 187 213 195 231 271 269 239 260 294 274 270 19 3,064

2016-17 153 185 158 188 212 194 225 270 267 234 258 291 272 18 2,925

2017-18 165 153 187 159 187 211 189 224 268 261 232 255 289 18 2,798

2018-19 165 165 154 188 158 186 205 188 223 262 259 229 253 17 2,652

2019-20 165 165 167 155 187 158 181 204 187 218 260 256 227 16 2,546

2020-21 165 165 167 168 154 186 154 180 203 183 216 257 254 16 2,468

2021-22 165 165 167 168 167 154 181 153 179 199 181 214 255 15 2,363

2022-23 165 165 167 168 167 167 150 180 152 175 197 179 213 14 2,259

2023-24 165 165 167 168 167 167 163 149 179 149 173 195 178 14 2,199


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Projected Enrollment By Configuration

In Table A3 following, the historical and projected enrollments are broken down by thecurrent grade configurations (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12) in Katonah-Lewisboro for each of theenrollment projection calculations.

Table A3Projected Enrollments wi th Full-Day Kindergartenfor Grades K-5, 6-8,

and 9-12 for Each Projection Method

HISTORICAL K-5 6-8 9-12

2013-14 1,386 812 1,176

PROJECTED

K-5CSR5-YR

K-5CSR6-YR

6-8CSR5-YR

6-8CSR6-YR

9-12CSR5-YR

9-12

CSR6-YR

2014-15 1,272 1,274 776 777 1,152 1,154

2015-16 1,179 1,183 779 780 1,106 1,1132016-17 1,101 1,106 762 765 1,062 1,072

2017-18 1,073 1,078 681 687 1,044 1,055

2018-19 1,026 1,033 616 623 1,010 1,023

5-year Change -360 -353 -196 -189 -166 -153

2019-20 1,007 1,014 572 578 967 982

2020-21 1,015 1,022 537 543 916 933

2021-22 995 1,000 513 520 855 872

2022-23 1,007 1,011 482 490 770 785

2023-24 1,007 1,011 491 498 701 7165-year Change -19 -22 -125 -125 -309 -307

10-year Change -379 -375 -321 -314 -475 -460

At the elementary level K-5, enrollment is projected to decline through 2019-20 beforestabilizing. The CSR method based on five and six years of historical data is projectingenrollment to be 1,007-1,011 students in 2023-24, which would represent a loss of 375-379students from the 2013-14 enrollment of 1,386 students. While the decline in the first five yearsis projected to be 353-360 students, the decline in the last five years is projected to be only 19-22students. Like the projections earlier in the report that considered only half-day kindergarten, thestabilization in enrollment is related to holding the projected number of births from 2012-2018constant, which results in constant kindergarten counts five years later and subsequentelementary grades.

For John Jay Middle School (grades 6-8), enrollment is also projected to decline, ingeneral, through 2023-24. The CSR method based on five and six years of historical data is


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1. Increase Miller Elementary School

Enrollment at Increase Miller Elementary School is projected to decline to 271 studentsin 2023-24, which would be a loss of 85 students from the 2013-14 enrollment of 356 students asshown in Table A4. In the first five years of the projection period, a loss of 77 students is

projected while a small decline of eight students is projected in the last five years of theprojection period.

Table A4Projected Enrollments wi th Full-Day Kindergarten

Increase Miller Elementary School

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Sp. EdK-5

Total

2014-15 45 56 59 41 55 63 9 328

2015-16 53 45 52 57 40 55 8 310

2016-17 44 53 42 50 56 40 8 293

2017-18 47 44 49 41 49 56 8 294

2018-19 47 47 41 48 40 49 7 279

5-year Change -77

2019-20 47 47 44 40 47 40 7 272

2020-21 47 47 44 43 39 47 7 274

2021-22 47 47 44 43 42 39 7 269

2022-23 47 47 44 43 42 42 6 271

2023-24 47 47 44 43 42 42 6 271

5-year Change -8

10-year Change -85


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2. Katonah Elementary School

Enrollment at Katonah Elementary School is projected to decline to 280 students in 2023-24, which would be a loss of 92 students from the 2013-14 enrollment of 372 students as shownin Table A5. In the first five years of the projection period, a loss of 93 students is projected

while enrollment is projected to be essentially constant in the last five years of the projectionperiod.


Katonah Elementary School

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Sp. EdK-5

Total

2014-15 43 45 56 62 64 69 3 342

2015-16 50 43 47 56 62 64 3 325

2016-17 41 50 45 47 56 62 3 304

2017-18 45 41 52 45 47 56 3 289

2018-19 45 45 42 52 45 47 3 279

5-year Change -93

2019-20 45 45 47 42 52 45 3 279

2020-21 45 45 47 47 42 52 3 281

2021-22 45 45 47 47 47 42 2 275

2022-23 45 45 47 47 47 47 2 280

2023-24 45 45 47 47 47 47 2 280

5-year Change +1

10-year Change -92


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3. Lewisboro Elementary School

As shown in Table A6, enrollment in Lewisboro Elementary School is projected todecline to 267 in 2023-24, which would be a loss of 83 students from the 2013-14 enrollment of350 students. In the first five years of the projection period, a loss of 72 students is projected

while a small decline of eleven students is projected in the last five years of the projectionperiod.


Lewisboro Elementary School

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Sp. EdK-5

Total

2014-15 40 54 49 47 60 75 0 325

2015-16 47 40 56 51 48 59 0 301

2016-17 39 47 41 58 53 47 0 285

2017-18 42 39 49 43 60 52 0 285

2018-19 42 42 40 51 44 59 0 278

5-year Change -72

2019-20 42 42 44 42 53 43 0 266

2020-21 42 42 44 46 43 52 0 269

2021-22 42 42 44 46 47 42 0 263

2022-23 42 42 44 46 47 46 0 267

2023-24 42 42 44 46 47 46 0 267

5-year Change -11

10-year Change -83


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4. Meadow Pond Elementary School

As shown in Table A7, enrollment at Meadow Pond Elementary School is projected todecline to 194 in 2023-24, which would be a loss of 114 students from the 2013-14 enrollment of308 students. In the first five years of the projection period, a loss of 113 students is projected

while enrollment is projected to be essentially constant in the last five years of the projectionperiod.


Meadow Pond Elementary School

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Sp. EdK-5

Total

2014-15 31 32 47 47 53 74 0 284

2015-16 36 31 32 48 46 55 0 248

2016-17 30 36 31 33 47 48 0 225

2017-18 32 30 36 32 32 49 0 211

2018-19 32 32 30 37 31 33 0 195

5-year Change -113

2019-20 32 32 32 31 36 32 0 195

2020-21 32 32 32 33 30 37 0 196

2021-22 32 32 32 33 32 31 0 192

2022-23 32 32 32 33 32 33 0 194

2023-24 32 32 32 33 32 33 0 194

5-year Change -1

10-year Change -114

Documents

Demographic Study on Katonah-Lewisboro Area, November 2013