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Demographic and economic challenges in an emigration-immigration country -
the case of Poland
Paweł Kaczmarczyk
Centre of Migration Research
University of Warsaw
Driving forces behind demographic trends in Visegrad countries: The role of migration and family formation Prague, 10-11 September 2015
Structure of the presentation
Introduction: Migration cycle and migration transition
Migration transition – theoretical and conceptual considerations
Towards a net receiving area? Interpretation
Challenges in an emigration-immigration country – the case of Poland
Demography
Labour market
Integration
‘Old’ immigration countries
France, Germany, Austria, UK
- (dis)integration / social exclusion of immigrants
- crisis / failure of the multiculturalism
‘New’ immigration countries
Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal
- transformation of immigrants into settlers
- ways to integrating them in economic and social terms
‘Future’ immigration countries
CEE
- completion of the transition?
- impact of on-going recession
- high emigration rates in the post-accession period
- circular mobility as a major form of movements
time before 1975… around 1980 / 1990 2020 (?)
Introduction: Europe as a migration area - European Migration Cycle
Migration transition
Origins: Zelinsky (1971), Skeldon (1990,1997) linkages between migration patterns (internal, international, circular etc.) and demographic developments
Transition from net sending into net receiving area:
Chesnais (1992), Okólski (2012) demographic transition (FDT) and migration cycle (net emigration – transition phase – net immigration) demographic pressure as the most important pro-migratory factor, demographic insufficiency as the main driver of immigration (de Kaa 1999 – SDT); from trickle to mass migration - Hatton and Williamson (2008)
Fields (1994) economic changes (export-led growth accompanied with well integrated labour markets) as the main driver of migration transition increase in demand for labour beyond the stage of full employment recruitment
King and Black (1997) from net sending area (1950-1970) through transition (1970-1980) to net receiving status (1980-…) (based on the case of Southern Europe) dualisation of the economy, role of the welfare state measures, informal economy
de Haas (2010) capabilities and aspirations to migrate
Migration transition - capabilities / aspirations approach
Development and capabilites / aspirations to migrate
Source: de Haas 2010: 17
• migration aspirations: not treated as given preferences, rather: dependent on the development process
• migration capabilities: social, human and material capital people are able to mobilize (in order to become mobile)
• hypotheses: migration capabilities are expected to rise with development; migration aspirations are expected to have an inverted U-shape (decline due to lowering of the wage/income gap)
Czaika and Vothknecht (2014) - two capacities:
Capacity to realize transformation of migration potential into real migratory streams
Capacity to aspire function of a difference between reality and „aspired level of subjective well-being” (cfr. Hoffman-Novotny, relative deprivation, information asymmetry)
Migration transition - capabilities / aspirations approach
Source: de Haas 2010: 19
Development and migration transition
CASE OF POLAND?
• individual model translated into macro-level variables migration transition
• migration capabilities increase exponentially during the early development phase (effect amplified by migrant networks and migration hump) then capabilities reach very high level but aspirations to migrate tend to decline (income gap diminishes)
• development means higher attractiveness for potential immigrants (controversial – too simplistic importance of: 1) labour market and 2) demography)
• development pushes countries towards net migration frontier
Case of Poland: Post-enlargement migration experience (1) • EU-Enlargement and migration – why important?
• toward European Economic Space?
• scale of the change
• limitations: transitional periods (part. Germany and Austria), access to welfare systems, barriers imposed in case of the 2007 accession round
• effects: enormous changes in terms of scale, dynamics and structural features
Accession year
New member states No. of EU member states (after
enlargement)
Number of new EU citizens (in
thous.)
% change of number of new
citizens
1973 Denmark, Ireland, United Kingdom
9 64 228 30.8
1981 Greece 10 9 701 3.5
1986 Spain, Portugal 12 48 515 16.7
1995 Austria, Finnland, Sweden 15 21 859 6.2
2004 Cyprus, Czech Rep., Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland,
Slovak Rep., Slovenia
25 74 142 19.3
2007 Bulgaria, Romania 27 29 244 6.3
Number of EU-12 nationals (at all ages) residing in the EU-15 countries in thousands, 2000-2014
Source: Fihel et al. 2015
Post-enlargement migration experience (2)
Migration from Poland – stock and main destinations
Source: Own elaboration based on the CSO data
Post-enlargement migration experience (3)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20
02
(Ce
nsu
s)
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Germany Ireland Italy Netherlands Spain United Kingdom Other
Post-2004 emigration from Poland – why so massive?
Aspirations Capabilities
• wage / income gap
• differences in standards of living
• growing (?) inequality relative
deprivation, subjective well-being
• educational boom
• social change (middle class)
• EU citizenship
• institutional changes free migratory
regime
• costs of transportation
• access to (free) information
• formal recruitment / recruitment agencies
• educational boom skills
• structural demand for foreign labour (at
destinations)
• migrant networks
Post-2004 emigration from Poland – why so massive?
ASPIRATIONS
CAPABILITIES
Time / development
Aspirations / capabilities
2004 structural break development as a trigger of mass out-migration (BUT NOT ONLY DUE TO CAPABILITIES)
Importance of long-term perspective
scale and structure of recent migration deeply rooted in the past; e.g. socialist model of industrialization and urbanization (incomplete urbanization)
entrapment of people in the least developed regions labour market mismatches, oversupply of labour matched with rising level of aspirations
Immigration to Poland – basic data
Register data - 2001-2013: 155 thous.
National Census 2002 – 40.6 thous. foreigners
National Census 2011 – 110 thous. foreigners (0.3% of the total population)
Labour Force Survey: around 60 thous. foreigners (0.2% of the total)
Work permits issued: around 40 thous. in 2013 and 2014
Most important immigrant groups: former Soviet Union (Ukraine, Belarus), Vietnam, China, Western European countries
But:
Passenger border traffic: approx. 60-70 million of visiting foreigners in 2012-2014
Number of declarations issued (simplified procedure): around 235 thous. in 2013, 387 thous. in 2014 and and 411 thous. in the first half of 2015 (90% - Ukrainians)
Immigration to Poland – why (still) so limited?
Aspirations Capabilities
• wage / income gap
• differences in standards of living
• lack of jobs
• migration as a survival strategy
• growing (severely) inequality
• lack of economic and political stability
BUT:
• MANIFOLD DESTINATIONS competition
for talents (?)
• migrant networks
• cultural proximity (Ukrainians)
• geographical proximity (Ukrainians)
• business of migration (facilitators)
• demand (in process of building)
• ROLE OF THE SIMPLIFIED PROCEDURE
cfg. Ukrainian crisis
Towards a net immigration area?
MIGRATION TRANSITION
EMIGRATION
IMMIGRATION
Emigration / immigration
Time / development
Key factors:
-Labour market needs?
-Economic convergence? (attractiveness)
-Immigration policies?
-External factors?
Challenges for and emigration-immigration country (1) • Net migration and demographic challenges
• Post-accession outflow and demographic future of Poland
• Additional effects: social impacts, impacts on family formation, regional disparities
• Net migration and demographic ageing
• Net migration and labour market needs
• Overall effects – replacement migration?
• Structure of immigration
• Sectoral effects (construction, agriculture, care services)
• Integration
• Lack of systemic solutions
• (Very) limited experience
• Ad-hoc measures
Challenges: emigration and demographic future of Poland
33 000 000
34 000 000
35 000 000
36 000 000
37 000 000
38 000 000
39 000 000
40 000 000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Official CSO forecast Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
What do we know? Official forecast vs. scenarios including data on ‘temporary’ emigration
Source: OBMF
Additional effects:
- Social impacts
- Impacts on family formation
- Etc.
Challenges: emigration and demographic future of Poland
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
Op
ols
kie
Po
dka
rpac
kie
Świę
tokr
zysk
ie
Po
dla
skie
Lub
usk
ie
War
miń
sko
-M
azu
rski
e
Mał
op
ols
kie
Lub
elsk
ie
Zach
od
nio
po
mo
rski
e
Ku
jaw
sko
-Po
mo
rski
e
Po
mo
rski
e
Do
lno
śląs
kie
Łód
zkie
Wie
lko
po
lski
e
Śląs
kie
Maz
ow
ieck
ie
Migration loss: Poland: 6.8%
Migration loss - 18-64: Poland 7.9%
Migration loss - 18-44: Poland 10.0%
Source: OBMF
Regional and country level effects
010203040506070Romania
Poland
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Germany
Hungary
Portugal
Greece
ItalySpainCzech Republic
Austria
Netherlands
Finland
France
Sweden
Belgium
Denmark
United Kingdom
2008 2035 2060
25,4 42,3 53,5EU-27
Old-age dependency ratio, 2008, 2035 & 2060
low immigration, high emigration countries
lowest low fertility
Challenges: emigration and demographic future of Poland
Challenges for and emigration-immigration country (2) • Net migration and demographic challenges
• Post-accession outflow and demographic future of Poland
• Additional effects: social impacts, impacts on family formation, regional disparities
• Net migration and demographic ageing
• Net migration and labour market needs
• Overall effects – replacement migration?
• Structure of immigration
• Sectoral effects (construction, agriculture, care services)
• Integration
• Lack of systemic solutions
• (Very) limited experience
• Ad-hoc measures
Challenges: immigration and demographic future of Poland
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Tysiące
Source: Strzelecki 2012
Replacement migration? Net immigration needed to maintain the size of the labour force in Poland - estimation
Challenges: immigration and demographic future of Poland
Source: OBMF
Replacement migration? Recent and ‘future’ stocks necessary to maintain the number of persons aged 20-64
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PL (1) PL (2) UK
Zasób imigrantów jao
odsetek ludności w wieku
20 - 64 lat (2050):
- PL (1): 43,6%
- PL (2): 45,7%
- Wielka Brytania: 12,3%
Stock of immigrants as a share of population aged 20-64 (2050): -PL (1 - Eurostat): 43,6% -PL (2 - UN): 45,7% -UK: 12,3%
Challenges for and emigration-immigration country (3) • Net migration and demographic challenges
• Post-accession outflow and demographic future of Poland
• Additional effects: social impacts, impacts on family formation, regional disparities
• Net migration and demographic ageing
• Net migration and labour market needs
• Overall effects – replacement migration?
• Structure of immigration
• Sectoral effects (construction, agriculture, care services)
• Integration
• Lack of systemic solutions
• (Very) limited experience Poland as primarily a transit country
• Ad-hoc measures