Demographic Catastrophe in 16Demographic Catastrophe in 16thth century Peru: century Peru:

The Death of Huayna Capac led to The Death of Huayna Capac led to a War of Succession, and a War of Succession, and

demographic catastrophe, but the demographic catastrophe, but the proof that he died of smallpox is proof that he died of smallpox is

weakweak

Why Blame Smallpox?: chronologyWhy Blame Smallpox?: chronology

Demography Collapse, 1520-1620Demography Collapse, 1520-1620 1520: 5-10 million1520: 5-10 million 1620: 600-750, 0001620: 600-750, 000

Chronology: Andes and PeruChronology: Andes and Peru 152?: Death of Inca Huayna Capac: due to smallpox?152?: Death of Inca Huayna Capac: due to smallpox?

The only evidence for an epidemic is the account of The only evidence for an epidemic is the account of HC’s deathHC’s death

1531: Pizarro began conquest of Peru1531: Pizarro began conquest of Peru 1533: Pizarro executed Atahualpa (after paying a 1533: Pizarro executed Atahualpa (after paying a

ransom of 6 tons of gold & 13 of silver)ransom of 6 tons of gold & 13 of silver) 1535-48: Wars in Peru 1535-48: Wars in Peru 1558: first confirmed smallpox epidemic in the Andes1558: first confirmed smallpox epidemic in the Andes

The 11The 11thth Inca, Inca, Huayna CapacHuayna Capac

Modern HistoriesModern Histories

The more skeptical histories note that evidence is scanty and contradictoryThe more skeptical histories note that evidence is scanty and contradictoryPolo (1913)Polo (1913)Lastres (1951, 1954, 1957): “inclined” toward smallpoxLastres (1951, 1954, 1957): “inclined” toward smallpoxHemming (1970), Assadourian (1987/94), Guerra (1999)Hemming (1970), Assadourian (1987/94), Guerra (1999)

The Virgin Soil School explains away contradictions and writes as though a The Virgin Soil School explains away contradictions and writes as though a virgin soil epidemic engulfed the Andean peoples before 1531virgin soil epidemic engulfed the Andean peoples before 1531

Dobyns (1963), Crosby (1972), McNeill (1976), Diamond (1993), Cook (1998), Dobyns (1963), Crosby (1972), McNeill (1976), Diamond (1993), Cook (1998), Alchon (2003)Alchon (2003)The hypothesis that smallpox leapt ahead of Spanish conquest: the case of PeruThe hypothesis that smallpox leapt ahead of Spanish conquest: the case of Peru

Assadourian’s well-documented counter-argument (1987/94) is ignoredAssadourian’s well-documented counter-argument (1987/94) is ignoredMeta-narratives blame smallpox, without equivocationMeta-narratives blame smallpox, without equivocation

McNeill (1976) McNeill (1976) Plagues and PeoplesPlagues and PeoplesDiamond (1997) Diamond (1997) Guns, Germs and SteelGuns, Germs and SteelOldstone (1998) Oldstone (1998) Viruses, Plagues and HistoryViruses, Plagues and HistoryTucker (2001) Tucker (2001) Scourge: The Once and Future Threat of SmallpoxScourge: The Once and Future Threat of Smallpox

Earliest chronicles (1533-57)Earliest chronicles (1533-57)

The historical canon blames smallpox for: The historical canon blames smallpox for: killing Huayna Capac andkilling Huayna Capac anddestroying much of the population of Tawantinsuyu before Pizarro destroying much of the population of Tawantinsuyu before Pizarro

Evidence is based on a few, selected chronicles and refers Evidence is based on a few, selected chronicles and refers solely to the episode of Huayna Capac (Table 1)solely to the episode of Huayna Capac (Table 1)Recent histories (Table 2) do not take into account Recent histories (Table 2) do not take into account

a broad range of evidence (or lack thereof): a broad range of evidence (or lack thereof): linguistic (Tables 3 and 4)linguistic (Tables 3 and 4)narrative (lack of descriptions of pockmarked survivors)narrative (lack of descriptions of pockmarked survivors)archaeological archaeological

nor new epidemiological findings on smallpoxnor new epidemiological findings on smallpoxLow communicability of the diseaseLow communicability of the diseaseSignificance of pockmarked survivors to determine presence of the Significance of pockmarked survivors to determine presence of the diseasedisease

Finally, there is the mummy: Finally, there is the mummy: descriptions, depictions, and, perhaps, de remainsdescriptions, depictions, and, perhaps, de remains

Table 1. 19 Early Primary Sources Describing the Death of the Inca Huayna Capac Table 1. 19 Early Primary Sources Describing the Death of the Inca Huayna Capac and the Origin and Year of the Illness by Author and Year Text was Completedand the Origin and Year of the Illness by Author and Year Text was Completed

YearYear AuthorAuthor

Death of Inca Huayna CapacDeath of Inca Huayna Capac

YearYear Description (with page number)Description (with page number)

15331533 Francisco de XerezFrancisco de Xerez 15241524 115: Atahualpa, attributes death to “115: Atahualpa, attributes death to “aquella aquella enfermedadenfermedad””

c.1539c.1539 The anonymous soldierThe anonymous soldier(Miguel de Estete or (Miguel de Estete or Cristobal de Mena)Cristobal de Mena)

138: “y Guaynacapa se fué en jornada a 138: “y Guaynacapa se fué en jornada a Popayán, y de vuelta que volvió Popayán, y de vuelta que volvió murió en murió en QuitoQuito.”.”

15431543 Pedro Sancho de la Pedro Sancho de la HozHoz

Mummy mentioned, but not cause of death.Mummy mentioned, but not cause of death.

15441544 *Cristóbal Vaca de *Cristóbal Vaca de CastroCastro

22: “se estaba muriendo de la pestilencia de las 22: “se estaba muriendo de la pestilencia de las viruelasviruelas””

15501550 *Pedro de Cieza de *Pedro de Cieza de LeónLeón

15271527-28-28

200: “200: “cuentan quecuentan que vino una gran pestilencia de vino una gran pestilencia de viruelasviruelas tan contajiosa que murieron más de tan contajiosa que murieron más de dozientas mill ánimas”dozientas mill ánimas”

15571557 Juan de BetanzosJuan de Betanzos(published 1987)(published 1987)

15261526-28-28

201: An illness that took away his reason and 201: An illness that took away his reason and understanding and gave him “understanding and gave him “sarna y leprasarna y lepra”.”.

……//

Discussion of chroniclesDiscussion of chronicles

The death of Huayna Capac was central to the Christian conquest, because The death of Huayna Capac was central to the Christian conquest, because Pizarro took advantage of the war of succession between Atahualpa and Pizarro took advantage of the war of succession between Atahualpa and Huascar to defeat the divided empire.Huascar to defeat the divided empire.

Table 1 summarizes key texts of 19 chroniclesTable 1 summarizes key texts of 19 chronicles3 accounts based on best native testimony do not indicate smallpox: 3 accounts based on best native testimony do not indicate smallpox:

Francisco de Xerez (1533): “that illness”Francisco de Xerez (1533): “that illness”Juan de Betanzos (1557): “una sarna y una lepra”Juan de Betanzos (1557): “una sarna y una lepra”Garcilaso de la Vega (1613): “an illness of fevers”Garcilaso de la Vega (1613): “an illness of fevers”

Accounts are contradictory Accounts are contradictory Of 19 most frequently cited/important chronicles, 6 state solely smallpoxOf 19 most frequently cited/important chronicles, 6 state solely smallpox13 others, various causes: perlesia, pestilencia/lepra incurable, mortales 13 others, various causes: perlesia, pestilencia/lepra incurable, mortales calenturas, epidemia de romadizo, sarampion, melancolia, bubascalenturas, epidemia de romadizo, sarampion, melancolia, bubasCieza de Leon (1550) conditions the smallpox story with “cuentan que”Cieza de Leon (1550) conditions the smallpox story with “cuentan que”Martin de Murua (1590) “unos dicen…de calenturas, y otros dicen…de viruelas”Martin de Murua (1590) “unos dicen…de calenturas, y otros dicen…de viruelas”Garcilaso discounts smallpox: “aunque otros dicen de virguelas y sarampion”Garcilaso discounts smallpox: “aunque otros dicen de virguelas y sarampion”

New Evidence—and lack thereofNew Evidence—and lack thereofLinguistic evidence from early Quechua dictionaries (Table 3)Linguistic evidence from early Quechua dictionaries (Table 3)

Santo Domingo (1560)—compiled in 1540s, no Quechua term for Santo Domingo (1560)—compiled in 1540s, no Quechua term for smallpoxsmallpox““Ricardo” (1586)— “muru oncoy”, Quechua term for smallpox, also for Ricardo” (1586)— “muru oncoy”, Quechua term for smallpox, also for measles (Ricardo was the publisher; author = Padre Alonso de Barzana)measles (Ricardo was the publisher; author = Padre Alonso de Barzana)Gonzalez Holguin (1608)—distinguished smallpox (“hGonzalez Holguin (1608)—distinguished smallpox (“huchuy muru uchuy muru vncuy”) from measles (“hvncuy”) from measles (“hatun muru vncuy”) and recorded 3 literal atun muru vncuy”) and recorded 3 literal descriptorsdescriptors

Analysis by historiansAnalysis by historiansLastres (1954): lack of smallpox term in Santo Domingo dictionary Lastres (1954): lack of smallpox term in Santo Domingo dictionary proved the disease did not exist in Peru before 1492 (to counter contrary proved the disease did not exist in Peru before 1492 (to counter contrary thesis by a contemporary)thesis by a contemporary)

Might the lack of a term also signal the absence of smallpox before 1557?Might the lack of a term also signal the absence of smallpox before 1557?Cook (1998): uses Ricardo dictionary to interpret Betanzos’ “sarna y Cook (1998): uses Ricardo dictionary to interpret Betanzos’ “sarna y lepra” (77: “symptoms of severe skin rash and inflammations”)lepra” (77: “symptoms of severe skin rash and inflammations”)

The terms may also refer to any of a number of other diseases.The terms may also refer to any of a number of other diseases.

New Evidence—and lack thereof:New Evidence—and lack thereof:Indeed there is no term for smallpox in Santo Indeed there is no term for smallpox in Santo

Tomas vs. later dictionaries (Table 3—abridged)Tomas vs. later dictionaries (Table 3—abridged) Table 3. Quechua Terms Related to Illness in Three Early DictionariesTable 3. Quechua Terms Related to Illness in Three Early Dictionaries

SpanishSpanish Santo Tomas (1560)Santo Tomas (1560) ““Ricardo” (1586)Ricardo” (1586) Gonzalez Holguín (1608)Gonzalez Holguín (1608)

Berruga (peca de la cara)Berruga (peca de la cara) Moro, ticti Moro, ticti TictiTicti Ticti; hacerse verruga - tictiyan Ticti; hacerse verruga - tictiyan

BubasBubas .. Huanti, huantictam onconiHuanti, huantictam onconi Tener – Huantictam vnconi huanti vncoytamTener – Huantictam vnconi huanti vncoytam

Enfermedad de manchaEnfermedad de mancha .. Muru onccoyMuru onccoy

LepraLepra CarachaCaracha Caracha llecteCaracha llecte Lluttasca llekte o lluttascca ccarachaLluttasca llekte o lluttascca ccaracha

Mal de viruelas o sarampionMal de viruelas o sarampion Muru vncoyMuru vncoy

Mancha redondeadaMancha redondeada MuruMuru Cundir la mancha – visuinCundir la mancha – visuin Mapam mmizmirin mirarccunMapam mmizmirin mirarccun

Peca de la caraPeca de la cara MoroMoro MircaMirca MircaMirca

Pegar (enfermedad)Pegar (enfermedad) .. .. Vnccoytam rantiycupuniVnccoytam rantiycupuni

PestilenciaPestilencia .. Pahuac oncoyPahuac oncoy P. mal pegajoso = ppahuak vncoy o rantiy P. mal pegajoso = ppahuak vncoy o rantiy rantiy, o ranticuk vnccoyrantiy, o ranticuk vnccoy

SarampionSarampion .. Muru oncoyMuru oncoy Hatun muru vncuyHatun muru vncuy

ViruelasViruelas .. Muru oncoyMuru oncoy Huchuy muru vncuyHuchuy muru vncuy

New insights from the WHO’s New insights from the WHO’s global campaign to eradicate global campaign to eradicate

smallpoxsmallpox

Descriptions and Descriptions and depictions of pockmarked depictions of pockmarked

individualsindividuals

Será hombre hasta cuarenta añSerá hombre hasta cuarenta años, os, de mediana estatura, moreno de mediana estatura, moreno

y con unas pecas de viruelas en la cara…y con unas pecas de viruelas en la cara…—description of Inca Titu Cusi Yupanqui—description of Inca Titu Cusi Yupanqui

by Oidor Lic. by Oidor Lic. Don Juan de Matienzo (1565)Don Juan de Matienzo (1565)

Tawantinsuyu, before 1558: no descriptions Tawantinsuyu, before 1558: no descriptions of any pock-marked survivors in the Andesof any pock-marked survivors in the AndesTenochtitlan, 1520: No Spaniard witnessed Tenochtitlan, 1520: No Spaniard witnessed the epidemic, yet decades later they were still the epidemic, yet decades later they were still writing about pockmarked survivorswriting about pockmarked survivors

Tenochtitlan: this illustration depicting Tenochtitlan: this illustration depicting pockmarked individuals from 1520 pockmarked individuals from 1520

epidemic is widely reproduced:epidemic is widely reproduced:

Motolinía writing in the 1530s noted Motolinía writing in the 1530s noted ““hoy día en algunos que de aquella enfermedad escaparon, parece bien la hoy día en algunos que de aquella enfermedad escaparon, parece bien la fortaleza de la enfermedad, que todo el rostro les quedo lleno de hoyos” fortaleza de la enfermedad, que todo el rostro les quedo lleno de hoyos”

López de Gomara completed López de Gomara completed History of the Conquests of CortesHistory of the Conquests of Cortes in 1552. He too remarked on pockmarked faces: in 1552. He too remarked on pockmarked faces:

““los que quedaban vivos quedaron de tal suerte feos por haberse rascado, los que quedaban vivos quedaron de tal suerte feos por haberse rascado, que espantaban á los otros con los muchos y grandes hoyos que se les que espantaban á los otros con los muchos y grandes hoyos que se les hicieron en las caras, manos y cuerpo.”hicieron en las caras, manos y cuerpo.”

Less well known are texts on the epidemic written Less well known are texts on the epidemic written decades afterward that continued to remark on decades afterward that continued to remark on

ugly, pockmarked faces:ugly, pockmarked faces:

Codice FlorentinoCodice Florentino

Insights from Global Eradication of Insights from Global Eradication of Smallpox: pockmarksSmallpox: pockmarks

Descriptions of pockmarked survivors is an effective Descriptions of pockmarked survivors is an effective means of establishing the presence or absence of means of establishing the presence or absence of smallpoxsmallpox Used by WHO to authenticate the eradication of smallpox Used by WHO to authenticate the eradication of smallpox

in areas with poor record keepingin areas with poor record keeping Historians have also used such evidence to date the Historians have also used such evidence to date the

occurrence of epidemics (e.g., Fenn, occurrence of epidemics (e.g., Fenn, Pox AmericanaPox Americana)) Until there is evidence of pockmarked individuals in Until there is evidence of pockmarked individuals in

the Andes should we not discount the presence of the Andes should we not discount the presence of smallpox prior to 1558?smallpox prior to 1558?

Insights from Global Eradication of Insights from Global Eradication of Smallpox: low communicabilitySmallpox: low communicability

Smallpox was eradicated precisely because of its “fairly low Smallpox was eradicated precisely because of its “fairly low communicability”communicability” Historians have greatly exaggerated the communicability of smallpoxHistorians have greatly exaggerated the communicability of smallpox Scabs readily lose their potency in high heat, humidity or sunlightScabs readily lose their potency in high heat, humidity or sunlight

As a bioterror weapon: “least suitable” because it is “not readily As a bioterror weapon: “least suitable” because it is “not readily transmitted from one person to another” (Behbehani 1988:183)transmitted from one person to another” (Behbehani 1988:183)

Wholly improbable that smallpox leaped ahead of Europeans through the Wholly improbable that smallpox leaped ahead of Europeans through the Darien or Amazon Basin Darien or Amazon Basin Difficulties of travel by land, sea or streamsDifficulties of travel by land, sea or streams Little evidence of trans-isthmian contact even over the millenniaLittle evidence of trans-isthmian contact even over the millennia Native settlements in the region were: “linguistic islands” Native settlements in the region were: “linguistic islands”

According to the WHO, corpses were heavily contaminated and posed a According to the WHO, corpses were heavily contaminated and posed a serious occupational hazardserious occupational hazard Preparation of the mummy of Ramses V (1157 BC) interrupted due to the Preparation of the mummy of Ramses V (1157 BC) interrupted due to the

death of his embalmers? death of his embalmers? Huayna Capac’s mummy was prepared without notable incidentHuayna Capac’s mummy was prepared without notable incident Atahualpa kept a bit of flesh as a talisman, yet suffered no harmAtahualpa kept a bit of flesh as a talisman, yet suffered no harm The mummy was worshipped on the road to Cuzco and remained on display The mummy was worshipped on the road to Cuzco and remained on display

for years—no one ever remarked that people died from viewing itfor years—no one ever remarked that people died from viewing it

Tawantinsuyu: the best known drawing Tawantinsuyu: the best known drawing of Huayna Capac’s mummy does of Huayna Capac’s mummy does notnot depict pockmarks (Guaman Poma):depict pockmarks (Guaman Poma):

Eye-witness descriptions of Huayna Capac’s mummy, but neither Eye-witness descriptions of Huayna Capac’s mummy, but neither mentions pockmarks:mentions pockmarks:

Sancho de la Hoz (1543) referred to the mummy of Huayna Sancho de la Hoz (1543) referred to the mummy of Huayna Capac as being intact, “envuelta en suntuosas ropas y que le Capac as being intact, “envuelta en suntuosas ropas y que le faltaba nada más que la punta de la nariz...”faltaba nada más que la punta de la nariz...”Garcilaso de la Vega (1613): “Acuérdome que llegué a tocar un Garcilaso de la Vega (1613): “Acuérdome que llegué a tocar un dedo de la mano de Huayna Capac; parecía que era de una dedo de la mano de Huayna Capac; parecía que era de una estatua de palo, según estaba duro y fuerte” (vol 1:274).estatua de palo, según estaba duro y fuerte” (vol 1:274).

Why did no Andean cronista remark on what Why did no Andean cronista remark on what would have been an agreeable anecdote?would have been an agreeable anecdote?

Mummy of Huayna CapacMummy of Huayna Capac

No pockmarked mummies have No pockmarked mummies have been found anywhere in Peru.been found anywhere in Peru.As more remains are studied:As more remains are studied:

Will it be possible to identify Will it be possible to identify Huayna Capac?Huayna Capac?

Will there be sufficient tissue to Will there be sufficient tissue to identify smallpox?identify smallpox?

Will any mummies be found Will any mummies be found with pockmarks?with pockmarks?

Will a DNA test be developed to Will a DNA test be developed to ascertain smallpox even where ascertain smallpox even where no tissue samples have survived?no tissue samples have survived?

1536: Manco Inca revolt1536: Manco Inca revolt1538: The Pizarros 1538: The Pizarros executed Diego de executed Diego de AlmagroAlmagro1541: Almagristas killed 1541: Almagristas killed Fco. PizarroFco. Pizarro1546: Gonzalo Pizarro 1546: Gonzalo Pizarro revolted, killing the revolted, killing the viceroyviceroy1548: Gonzalo executed; 1548: Gonzalo executed; Royal rule restoredRoyal rule restored

Wars in Peru:Wars in Peru:

Reflections: Why Blame Smallpox?Reflections: Why Blame Smallpox?

Too many…Too many…Contradictions and contingencies in the chronicles Contradictions and contingencies in the chronicles Silences in the historical recordSilences in the historical record

No mentions of pockmarked survivorsNo mentions of pockmarked survivorsNo mention of smallpox in the earliest dictionaryNo mention of smallpox in the earliest dictionary

ImprobablesImprobablesThat the disease would leap ahead of the Spaniards—through one That the disease would leap ahead of the Spaniards—through one of the most impenetrable regions on the planetof the most impenetrable regions on the planetThat Huayna Capac would die, but not his embalmers or his son That Huayna Capac would die, but not his embalmers or his son Atahualpa who kept some of his father’s fleshAtahualpa who kept some of his father’s flesh

There is a convincing, alternative explanation for the There is a convincing, alternative explanation for the destruction of Tawantinsuyu: destruction of Tawantinsuyu:

decades of war, famine, wanton rapine (Assadourian)decades of war, famine, wanton rapine (Assadourian)The issue is the demographic catastrophe, not Huayna CapacThe issue is the demographic catastrophe, not Huayna Capac

Until there is more persuasive evidence (texts or remains)Until there is more persuasive evidence (texts or remains)the smallpox/virgin soil hypothesis should be discounted for the the smallpox/virgin soil hypothesis should be discounted for the Andean region—before 1558 …and other regions as well—such as Andean region—before 1558 …and other regions as well—such as Alta CaliforniaAlta California