Demographic and Economic Baseline Report

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BIODISTRICT

NEW ORLEANS

Demographic and Economic

Baseline Report

September 30, 2010


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DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC BASELINE REPORT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction 1

Executive Summary 3

Geographic Defnitions 5

Population 7

Population Projections 13

Households 17

Income 21

Age o Residents 25

Household Retail Expenditures 27

Housing Units and Housing Value 29

Residential Real Estate 35

Retail Establishments 45

Restaurants and Bars 51

Commercial Real Estate 53

Hospitality and Special Events 61

Major Institutions 67

Employment 75

Conclusion 81


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IntroductionExecutive Summary

Geopraphic Defnitions


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INTRODUCTIONTo support the efforts of BioDistrict New Orleans (the District), GCR & Associates, Inc. (GCR)

has compiled a wide variety of demographic and economic data. These data are designed to serve

a comprehensive baseline analysis of the District as it exists in the summer of 2010. This baselin

provides a snapshot of current conditions in and around the 2.2 square mile BioDistrict; a report onthe extent to which the district has rebounded from the effects of Hurricane Katrina in August of

2005; and a description of how conditions within the District compare to those in surrounding areas

and to the city of New Orleans as a whole.

The purpose of these baseline data is two-fold. First, they provide the BioDistrict and its partners

with credible indicators of current demographic and economic data with which to analyze public and

private investment opportunities, programmatic initiatives, and market potential. Secondly, they ser

as a benchmark to measure the ongoing impact of the growth of the biosciences industry on the

Districts population, demographic composition, economic competitiveness, and real estate dynamics.

Five, ten, or twenty years down the road, the most cogent and concise way to analyze the effects ofthe BioDistricts efforts will be to compare those future conditions to the 2010 starting point.

This report documents the

sources and methodologies used

for the suite of baseline indica-

tors assembled and developed by

GCR. Additionally, the report

analyzes these indicators within

the context of dynamics through-

out the city and, where available,

in comparison to the pre-Katrina

condition of the District. A

comparison of the pre- and

post-storm characteristics of the

BioDistrict is essential, given the

fact that the District was almost

entirely ooded by Katrina. This comparison, therefore, helps to frame the investments that have oc-

curred over the past ve years and the near-term trajectory of the area.

The sources of the baseline data are varied, ranging from original data collection, to publicly available

databases, to interviews with key institutions. GCR has, where relevant, used mapping and database

technology and GCRs own analytics to report data at the smallest, most nuanced geographical unit.

Additionally, GCR has used its knowledge of the especially dynamic post-Katrina conditions in and

around New Orleans to extrapolate data into its most current and customized form.

A comprehensive baseline assessment o the BioDistrict will serve as a bench-mark to document the impact o major investments within the District.


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYAs this document consists of a compendium of data from disparate sources covering disparate top-

ics, there is no single thesis or overarching theme that emerges from the data. Perhaps the closest

approximation of this, however, is the blend of poverty and opportunity in the BioDistrict. Incomes

within the District are substantially below the citywide median; real estate values are comparativelyaffordable; and neighborhood blight remains a formidable challenge. At the same time, the District

benets from a tremendous number of stable institutional employers. With the forthcoming invest-

ment in the VA and University Medical Center (UMC) facilities and the anticipated spinoff economic

activity in areas such as research and development and medical manufacturing, there is a tremendous

opportunity to leverage these investments to tackle the longstanding poverty and quality of life issues

in the BioDistrict. There are few areas in the New Orleans region that have this unique blend of ma-

jor economic drivers set amidst a relatively impoverished community. There are also few low income

areas that have the potential for economic development, wealth creation, and social improvement

afforded by the major investments that the BioDistrict will soon witness.

The principal conclusions for each of the topics that were researched for this report are as follows:

Population: The population o the BioDistrict has largely recovered rom Katrina although much

o the population is now in a dierent housing typelarge multiamily developments rather than

the 1-4 unit rental buildings that comprised much o the housing stock prior to Katrina.

Projected Population Growth: Absent major investments in housing, blight remediation, inra-

structure, and beautication, population growth within the BioDistrict is expected to be limited.

With the right mix and sucient scale o community investments, however, the BioDistrict could

become the preerred neighborhood or those employed at the UMC and VA hospitals and other

major institutions in the District.

Households: A substantial portion o the BioDistrict population is not in a traditional household

environment, as the District contains a substantial group quarters population. Between univer-

sity dormitories, Parish prison acilities, group homes, and other accommodations, nearly a third

o the present population o the District is within a group quarters acility.

Income: The median income o the BioDistrict is well below the median income or the city o New

Orleans overallitsel not a wealthy city.

Age: The age prole o the BioDistrict is generally the same as the age prole o the city o New

Orleans overall.

Retail Expenditures: The breakdown o household retail expenditures in the District roughly

parallels that o New Orleans overall. As a result o lower household incomes, however, District

residents generally have less to spend than residents in other areas o New Orleans.


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Housing and Real Estate: The BioDistrict housing market is aordable by citywide standards.

One major reason or this and a major impediment to urther investment is the abundance o

vacant and blighted properties within the District, a problem that existed even beore Katrina

inundated the area. However, strong occupancy rates at new multiamily developments within the

District suggest that there is urther potential demand or high quality rental housing in the BioDis-

trict.

Retail Oerings: The District is largely underserved by retail. There are vibrant pockets o small,

independently owned businesses, but many basic retail establishments (grocery store or hard-

ware store, or example) are not located in the BioDistrict. Furthermore, there are ew, i any,

stores or discretionary retail purchases, such as clothing, urniture, electronic, and sporting

goods stores. However, there are three potential retail concepts within and adjacent to the BioDis-

trict that could provide additional retail opportunities: the sports/entertainment district adjacent

to the Superdome, the revitalization o Canal Street in Downtown New Orleans, and the potential

or big box retail along Earhart Boulevard (as proposed in the citys recently adopted Master Plan).

Restaurants: There are a variety o small restaurants in the district, mostly providing ast ood

and aordable dining options. Many o the principal employers and economic drivers in the

Districtthe LSU Health Sciences Center and Xavier University, or examplehave ew restaurants

within walking distance. Given the orthcoming investment in the UMC and VA hospitals, there is a

likely market or quality restaurant oerings.

Commercial Oce Market: There is a wide diversity o oce types within the BioDistrict, rang-

ing rom high quality Class A oce towers to boutique oces within converted residential struc-

tures. Rents tend to be aordable, and there is an ample supply o underutilized oce space both

in Downtown New Orleans and scattered throughout the District. This surplus space could poten-

tially accommodate spino economic activity catalyzed by the UMC and VA acilities.

Hospitality: The inventory o hotels within the BioDistrict is limited. Virtually all o the hotels

are at the same, budget-level price point, and there is currently only one Extended Stay option

within the District. Throughout the city, the hotel market is not as strong as it was in 2005 (prior to

Katrina), but it has rebounded somewhat. The completion o the Hyatt Hotel will add a substantial

inventory o quality rooms to the BioDistrict.

Major Institutions: The major health care, educational, and governmental institutions are theprincipal economic drivers in the area. Collectively, they employ over 14,000, and their signi-

cance and economic reach are poised to grow substantially with the completion o the VA and

UMC hospitals in the coming years.

Employment: The District is home to approximately 30,000 jobs. Approximately hal o the jobs

are directly generated by the major institutions in the BioDistrict. While there is substantial growth

potential in the health care sector, it is already the primary economic driver o the area, account-

ing or nearly a quarter o all o the present jobs within the BioDistrict.


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GEOGRAPHIC DEFINITIONSThe portion of the city referred to in this report as BioDistrict New Orleans or the District

(shaded green in the following map) is bounded by Loyola Avenue, Earhart Boulevard, Carrollton

Avenue, and Iberville Street. The Expanded Area (shaded blue in the map) contains all areas

within the BioDistrict plus the area bounded approximately by Royal Street/St. Charles Avenue,Martin Luther King Boulevard/Broad Street/Fontainebleau Drive, Leonidas Street/Olympia Street,

and Orleans Avenue. In some tables within this report, specic addresses and properties are listed i

the Buffer or Expanded Area and refer to those properties that are within the Expanded Area

but not within the BioDistrict itself; in other words, only the areas shaded blue in the map below. In

other tables, particularly those that pertain to demographic data, data for the Expanded Area are in-

clusive of the BioDistrict as well. This report attempts to clarify these distinctions as individual data-

sets are presented. Meanwhile, any citywide or city of New Orleans references within the tables

below refer to the entirety of the city of New Orleans/Orleans Parish, including the BioDistrict and

Expanded Area unless noted otherwise.

Map o BioDistrict Area and Expanded Area

BioDistrict

BioDistrict Expanded Area


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Population


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POPULATIONThe population of the cityand correspondingly that of the BioDistrict and its surroundingshas

experienced considerable uctuation in the past decade. Before Hurricane Katrina, the city had ex-

perienced steady population decline since the 1960 Census as a result of smaller household sizes and

disinvestment in certain neighborhoods. This pattern slowed considerably in the 1990s, but accord-ing to ofcial Census gures, the citys population declined by nearly 30,000 residents between 2000

and 2005from 484,764 to 455,188. Alternate estimates suggest that the population was essentially

static during the rst ve years of the decade1. Since Katrina, population levels in the city have

steadily increased on an annual basis, and as of this writing, the current population stands at approxi-

mately 79% of its 2005 size.

Each year, the U.S. Census Bureau updates its population estimates for counties (parishes in Loui-

siana) throughout the country. This data set, as well as the annual American Community Survey

(ACS), serves as an intermediate method of tracking population growth and demographic changes

at the county level during the periods between decennial censuses. The most recent update to thepopulation estimates dataset was published for 2009, while the most recent update to the ACS was

published for 2008.

Since Hurricane Katrina, GCR has supplemented these datasets with a block-level activity index to

track recovery and repopulation throughout New Orleans and its surrounding parishes. This index

relies on indicators of residential occupancy, including active utility accounts, garbage collection ac-

counts, and postal accounts. GCR has developed a copyrighted methodology for using these data t

estimate population return, and GCR updates its estimates on a monthly basis. Unlike the Census

population estimates, which only report data at the parish level, GCR generates block-level estimates

that can be aggregated to customized geographical reporting units. Therefore, GCR has been able

1Indeed, data compiled and analyzed by GCR or the City o New Orleans appeal o the 2007 Census estimate suggest that there was little change in the number o house-holds in New Orleans rom 2000 to 2005.

Sources: GCR & Associates Residential Activity Index, Census BureauNote: These population gures include the incarcerated population as they are included in the Census tally o overall popula-tion. A more detailed description o the prison and non-prison population is presented below.

2010 Population as % o Pre-Storm Population


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develop annual population estimates for the BioDistrict and the Expanded Area. Additionally, GCR

has used its activity index to provide an updated citywide estimate as of March 1, 2010.

The table below combines the 2000 Census, annual Census population estimates for the city, the up-

dated 2010 citywide estimate developed by GCR, and the sub-area estimates for post-storm periods

also developed by GCR. Please note that the population totals for the Expanded Area are cumula-

tive totals that include all blocks within the Expanded Area, including the BioDistrict itself.

Sources: 2000 Census, 2005 2009 Census population estimates, GCR Activity Index and geo-processing o Census 2000 s1 block level data.Note: These population gures include the incarcerated population as they are included in the Census tally o overall population. A more detailed description o theprison and non-prison population is presented below.Note: 2010 estimate is rom March 1, 2010; 2000 gure is rom April 1, 2000; all other estimates are rom July 1

Total Population, 2000-2010

Sources: Census population estimates, 2006 RAND Corporation population projections.

Population o New Orleans: Census Estimates vs. Initial Projections


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2Source: FEMA damage estimates, February 20063For example, the RAND Corporation prepared post-Katrina population projections in 2006 that projected a 2008 City o New Orleans population o 271,870. The ocialCensus estimate or 2008 was 336,664.

BioDistrict New Orleans A Recovering Community

Several conclusions can be drawn rom the population data:

Given that 80% o the city o New Orleans fooded and that 71% o all housing units in the city

were damaged2, New Orleans has recovered relatively quickly rom Katrina. The citys rate o popu-

lation growth has greatly exceeded initial, post-Katrina projections or the citys pace o recovery 3.

The recovery o both the BioDistrict and the Expanded Area is outpacing that o the city as a whole.

The BioDistrict has recovered approximately 85%, and the Expanded Area 82%, o their respective

pre-storm populations. New Orleans as a whole stands at 79% o its pre-storm population.

At all three geographical levels, the population continues to grow. New Orleans has gained ap-

proximately 5,000 residents since the last ocial Census estimate (2009). The population o the

BioDistrict has grown by 12% since the summer o 2009 while the Expanded Area has grown by a

healthy 5% since then.

The pace at which the BioDistrict and the Expanded Area have recovered is impressive in light o

the damage that both areas sustained. Virtually the entire extent o both geographical areas expe-

rienced moderate to severe fooding rom Katrina.

A New Housing Typology

While the population of the

District is within 15% of its

pre-Katrina population, the

spatial arrangement of the

population and the type of

housing that District residents

occupy have changed substan-

tially over the past ve years.

To a greater extent than any

other neighborhood in New

Orleans, the BioDistrict has

witnessed the emergence of

high density, tax credit -

nanced, multi-unit apartment buildings in recent years. Historically, the overwhelming major-

ity of housing units in the District have consisted of low-rise, one- to four-unit structures.Most of these structures were rendered uninhabitable by Katrinas oodwaters, and many

remain unrepaired and unoccupied. In the meantime, over 900 high-density multifamily units

have been completed within the District since 2008, representing approximately 870 house-

holds and over 2,000 residents. In fact, these new multifamily units represent nearly 19% of

the current households in the District. Absent this investment, the present population of the

BioDistrict would be substantially lower.

Large, multiamily, mixed income developments, such as the Crescent Club(pictured here), represent a new type o housing or the BioDistrict.


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Prison and Public Housing Populations

In addition to the emergence of

a new type of housing within

the District, other populations

that warrant special mention

include residents within public

housing developments and the

incarcerated population. Ac-

cordingly, GCR has researched

and compiled location-specic

data for these sub-groups.

Data for the population of the

prison facilities overseen by the

Orleans Parish Criminal Sher-

iff s Ofce (which are located

within the BioDistricts bound-

aries) were based on construc-

tion updates issued from the

Sheriff s Ofce. There has

been a substantial decline in

prison beds from the approxi-

mately 6,000 that existed before

Katrina as a result of damage

to prison facilities. As facilities

have been restored, the prisonpopulation has grown to ap-

proximately 3,300 but remains

well below the pre-storm total.

While there are no public hous-

ing developments within the BioDistrict itself, there are four major housing developmentsB.W.

Cooper, Guste, Iberville, and Lattewithin the Expanded Area. Population estimates for each of

these facilities were culled from HANO redevelopment plans and eld observations of demolition

and redevelopment activity.

The table below provides the gures for both the prison population and the population within

public housing. Given that both sub-groups comprise a signicant percentage of the population

of the BioDistrict and the Expanded Area, the population dynamics of both areas cannot be

fully understood without disaggregating these sub-populations from the overall population. Note

again that in the table below, the Expanded Area population includes the entire population of the

BioDistrict.

Prison acilities also constitute a large percentage o the population o theBioDistrict and Expanded Area. Within the table below, this percentage o thepopulation has been disaggregated rom the total population.

Public housing units comprised a tremendous percentage o the householdswithin the Expanded Area prior to Katrina. The pace and the scale o their

redevelopment will have a major impact on the uture prole o the area.


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Geography o Population Recovery

Population recovery within the BioDistrict and adjacent areas has not occurred evenly.

While some blocks have recovered much or all of their pre-Katrina population, others have

less than half of their pre-storm population, and many have some intermediate level of pop-

ulation. Using data calculated from the Activity Index, GCR assembled the following map

which illustrates the repopulation of blocks within the BioDistrict as well as those surround-

ing the District. As the legend indicates, the color that each block is shaded corresponds to

the percentage of each blocks pre-Katrina population, as of March 1, 2010. Those blocks

that are shaded white on the map had no residential activity prior to Katrina.

Note: 2010 estimate is rom March 1, 2010; 2000 gure is rom April 1, 2000; all other estimates are rom July 1Sources: 2000 Census, HANO redevelopment plans, Orleans Parish Criminal Sheris Oce construction updates, GCR Activity Index

Population o Prison and Public Housing Developments

Note: Blocks that are shaded white are those that had no indication o residential activity prior to Katrina.Sources: 2000 Census, GCR Activity Index. Map represents the percentage o the population that had returned as o the spring o 2010.

BioDistrict


Percent o Pre-Katrina Population Returned by Block


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Most blocks within the District and adjacent areas have a population that is at 40% or more

of the pre-Katrina population. Spatial patterns in the recovery of the population are dif-

cult to discern, but it appears that there is somewhat of a socio-economic dimension to

the recovery of the BioDistrict population. The area bounded by Banks Street, Carrollton

Avenue, Jefferson Davis Parkway, and Iberville Street at the northern, lakeside edge of the

District (arguably its most stable area) appears to have a stronger and more uniform recov-

ery prole than that of other areas of the District. On the other handwhether due to an

intrinsically slow pace of recovery or the imminent hospital development plansthe blocks

that lie within the footprint of the proposed University Medical Center (UMC) and VA hos-

pitals (bounded by Rocheblave Street, Tulane Avenue, Claiborne Avenue, Canal Street) have

a more sluggish recovery prole.


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Population Projections


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POPULATION PROJECTIONSThere are a multitude of variables that will affect the pace of population growth within the

District and adjacent areas in the coming years. They include:

The success o the states Small Rental Repair program. This housing assistance pro-gram, which provides nancial assistance to the owners of small rental properties in

exchange for preserving the affordability of renovated units, has encountered numerous

programmatic and administrative roadblocks. Given that approximately three quarters of

the housing units within the District were renter occupied prior to Katrina and given the

ood damage that the area sustained, this program is critical to the eventual rehabilitation

of much of the Districts historic housing stock.

Compliance with the Road Home program. Research conducted by GCR for the state

Ofce of Community Development (OCD) suggests that many Road Home Option

1 grant recipients4

may soon be noncompliant with the terms of their rebuilding grantsinsofar as many have not yet reoccupied their properties. Insufcient fundswhether due

to contractor fraud, insufcient private insurance, or insufcient Road Home grants

may be an obstacle to the rehabilitation and occupancy of these properties.

Anti-blight strategies administered by NORA and the City o New Orleans.

New Orleans faces the most severe

blight problem of any city in the United

States. An estimated 64,000 addresses

are in a vacant state; many of these may

be blighted.5 The BioDistrict and the

Expanded Area exemplify this prob-

lem, as they are home to a plethora of

blighted properties. The efforts of the

New Orleans Redevelopment Authority

(NORA) and city government in pros-

ecuting blight and disposing of blighted

properties could spark redevelopment

activity and subsequent population

growth.

A private market response within the

District.The factor that would most

effectively catalyze the redevelopment

of the District and signicant popula-

tion growth is a private market response.

Many of the neighborhoods that com-

prise the BioDistrict and the Expanded4The Road Home program is a ederally unded, state administered program that provides nancial assistance to homeowners whose houses suered damage rom Hur-ricanes Katrina or Rita. Option 1 grant recipients elected to use their Road Home unding to rebuild in place.5Source: The New Orleans Index (2010) produced by the Brookings Institution and Greater New Orleans Community Data Centers.

It has been decades since many New Orleans neighborhoodsincluding mucho BioDistrictwitnessed market driven reinvestment. This is a problem exacer-bated by the poor condition o the public inrastructure.


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Area have not had a functioning housing market for years, in some cases even decades.

The damage caused by Katrina only exacerbated this problem. If redevelopment activ-

ity is to be self-sustaining and if the District is to witness persistent population growth,

market driven reinvestment is a precondition.

The success o new biosciences investments in catalyzing reinvestment. A major

potential impetus for residential reinvestment within the District and the adjacent area is

the forthcoming investment in the VA Hospital and University Medical Center. The new

jobs generated by these and other, complimentary facilities could provide a market for

the dilapidated homes and vacant properties currently scattered throughout the District

The redevelopment o public housing. While the BioDistrict itself does not have any

public housing developments within its boundaries, the redevelopment prospects of

the four public housing developments within the adjacent Expanded Area will greatly

impact the future population of that area. Redevelopment activity is partially underway,

but there are a number of variables that could affect the ultimate scale and timetable of

redevelopment. These include the forthcoming plans for the Iberville Housing Develop-

ment and the continued availability of subsidies through the federal GO Zone incen-

tive program6.

The population projections that are pre-

sented below are fundamentally conserva-

tive in that they do not assume any radical

deviation from the status quo. They do not

assume, for instance, a sudden owering

of market rate reinvestment or exponentialimprovements in the management and dis-

position of blighted properties. While two

scenarios are provideda moderate and

a high growth scenarioboth are varia-

tions on the status quo dynamics that have

guided redevelopment activity in BioDistrict

and the adjacent area for the past ve years.

In short, both scenarios are fundamentally

conservative. Predictably, both scenarios

anticipate little growth in the District in the coming years. The major multifamily projectsthat have been announced for the BioDistrict over the past several years have already been

completed; other areas within the District have witnessed scant market-driven redevelop-

ment for decades; and a large swath of the District has been set aside for the VA and Uni-

versity Medical Center hospitals.

6As o the writing o this report, the Housing Authority o New Orleans (HANO) had recently issued a solicitation or qualied development partners or the redevelopmento Iberville. Additionally, the ate o the proposed extension o the ederal GO Zone incentives or the Katrina impacted area remains uncertain. Financing or the redevel-opment o public housing hinges in part on the extension o the GO Zone program.

The success o the anti-blight and redevelopment initiativeso the City o New Orleans and New Orleans RedevelopmentAuthority (NORA) will have a major impact on uture popula-tion growth within the District.


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However, more effective anti-blight strategies and well coordinated public investments could

indeed stimulate a market response and substantially greater population growth. If they

are sufciently ambitious, these kinds of public investments could turn the District into a

preferred neighborhood for the thousands of individuals who will be employed at the new

medical centers and ancillary facilities.

The following table, compiled from block level population estimates by GCR, presents two

fundamentally conservative scenarios for future population growth in the District and Ex-

panded Area. Note that the moderate scenario may have recently been eclipsed7. Again note

that the Expanded Area is inclusive of the BioDistrict itself. Citywide population projections

over the same period have been provided in the table below as well.

BioDistrict New Orleans Future Population Growth

Several conclusions can be drawn rom the population projections presented above:

Absent a major change in the trajectory o the neighborhoods that comprise the BioDistrict, little

population growth should be anticipated.

However, the economic investment that is orthcoming in the District could be leveraged to gener-

ate substantial reinvestment and population growth.

In addition to the investment in the two major medical acilities (VA and University Medical Center),

other measures would have to be undertaken to generate a market response and additional hous-

ing investment in the area. These include eective anti-blight strategies, a more successul Small

Rental Repair program, and major inrastructure and beautication investments.

The population projections presented within this section assume none o these major investments

or policy adaptations and, thereore, are undamentally conservative.

7GCR continually updates its population estimates on a monthly basis, while population projections are prepared at a single, xed point in time. The most recently avail-able population data suggest that the population o the District may have eclipsed an earlier population projection.

Source: Projections prepared by GCR. Methodology originally developed in 2008 or New Orleans Public Schools (NOPS).

Population Estimates and Forecasts or City, BioDistrict Area, and Expanded Area


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Households


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HOUSEHOLDSAs with population, the number of households within the city, the BioDistrict, and the Ex-

panded Area has changed signicantly in the period following Hurricane Katrina. The Censu

Bureau denes a household as all persons who occupy ahouse, an apartment, a mobile

home, a group of rooms, or a single room that is occupiedas separate living quarters. Ex-cluded from the count of households is the group quarters populationthose residents who

live in dormitories, nursing homes, prisons, military facilities, or any other group facility. Thus,

the BioDistrict household estimates presented below are exclusive of those who live in the

Xavier University dormitories or inmates in Orleans Parish Prison, for instance.

Changes in the total number of households for the three geographical levels shown below

roughly parallel changes in the population, but there are some discrepancies in the percentage

change in the two gures as a result of the group quarters population. Using block-level house-

hold estimates from the 2000 Census as a baseline, GCR has tracked the number of house-

holds by block throughout New Orleans through its activity index. The estimated number ofhouseholds is listed in the table below. As with the population tables, the household counts for

the Expanded Area include the number of households within the BioDistrict proper.

The following table further elucidates the distinction between households and group quarters

facilities, as it disaggregates the population of the BioDistrict and the Expanded Area into their

respective household and group quarters population gures.

Note: 2010 estimate is rom March 1, 2010; 2000 gure is rom April 1, 2000; all other estimates are rom July 1Sources: 2000 Census, 2005 2009 Census population estimates and 2010 GCR activity index or city o New Orleans. 2000 and 2005 data or BioDistrict and ExpandedArea extrapolated by GCR rom 2000 Census and 2005 Census population estimate; all other data are rom GCR activity index.

Total Estimated Number o Households, 2000-2010

Source: Census Bureau and GCR and Associates

Population o BioDistrict Area and Expanded Area, Including Group Quarters


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Households in Public Housing

Within the Expanded Area, a large portion of households are located in public housing de-

velopments. The number of households in these developments has declined substantially in

both absolute and relative terms since 2000. In 2000, the Expanded Areas 3,511 households

in public housing comprised over 20% of the areas total occupied housing units, whereas the

current number of public housing households, 1,790, accounts for just fewer than 13% of all

households within the Expanded Area. Clearly, the loss of public housing since Katrina has

had a major effect upon the overall household and population counts within this area. The

redevelopment of public housing will, therefore, be a major driver of repopulation and over-

all investment activity in the area. Note again that the data for the Expanded Area include all

households within the BioDistrict.

Average Household Size

One of the most difcult household and population statistics to deduce is the average house-

hold size within a given sub-county area. This information is tabulated on a block by block

basis every ten years and is published in the decennial census. From these block level data, an

average household gure can be calculated for a small geographical area, such as the BioDis -

trict. However, more recent data are not available.8 For its population estimates, GCR assumed

a relatively constant average household size within the District and the Expanded Area. In real-

ity, this gure may have changed somewhat since the 2000 Census as a result of:

Households sharing living quarters as a result of a citywide shortage of affordable hous-

ing, thereby increasing average household size

Households having fewer children (as suggested by disproportionately reduced school

enrollment and supporting Census data), thereby reducing average household sizeChanges in the type of housing units located within the area (i.e. the emergence of large,

multifamily housing)

Other demographic changes

8This inormation will be made available when the results o the 2010 Census are published in 2011.

Note: 2010 estimate is rom March 1, 2010; 2000 gure is rom April 1, 2000; all other estimates are rom July 1Sources: 2000 Census, HANO redevelopment plans, eld observations by GCR

Breakdown o Households In Expanded Area, 2000-2010


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Short of replicating the work of the Census Bureau, there is no statistically sound way to infer

a higher or lower average household size. If, in fact, there has been a major change in house-

hold sizes between 2000 and the present, this will have an effect upon the population estimates

and projections presented within this document.

The following table provides the average household size estimates that were used by GCR.

Note that the Expanded Area, as dened in the table below, includes the population and

households within the BioDistrict itself.

BioDistrict New Orleans Household Profle

Several conclusions can be drawn rom the household data presented above:

The average size o households within New

Orleans, the BioDistrict, and the Expanded

Area is highly uncertain and will not be

known until the publication o the 2010

Census in 2011. A conservative gure was

used or the estimates and projectionswithin this report.

As o the 2000 Census (the last period

when small area household data were

published), the BioDistrict had a slightly

smaller average household size than the

Expanded Area and the city as a whole.

The BioDistrict has recovered a higher percentage o its pre-Katrina households than its pre-Katrina

population because o the slow return o certain group quarters acilities within the District. The Dis-

trict has recovered nearly 100% o its pre-Katrina households, in part due to the construction o new

multiamily housing developments in recent years

Much o the Districts population is not included within the tally o households. The prison popula-

tion, those living in nursing homes, dormitories, or any other group quarters acility are not consid-

ered to be part o a household.

The loss o public housing is a major reason or the decline in households in the Expanded Area. The

redevelopment o public housing will drive household and population growth within the Expanded

Area in the near term.

Source: 2000 Census, analysis o American Community Survey data

Average Household Size, 2000

Sources: Census Bureau and GCR & Associates Activity Index

2010 Population and Households as % oPre-Storm Population and Households


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27/100


Income


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21


INCOMESince Hurricane Katrina, the me-

dian household income within the

City of New Orleans has increased

substantially. Relative to the NewOrleans Metropolitan Statistical

Area (MSA) and the nation as a

whole, New Orleans median house-

hold income was increasing even

prior to Katrina as moderate levels

of reinvestment were driving this

gure upward. Since Katrina, how-

ever, the rise in median household

income in New Orleans has become

more pronounced. This increase islikely attributable to two factors: ris-

ing wages and the displacement of

many lower-income residents who

have had difculty returning to the

city.

Household income is updated on

an annual basis at the county (par-

ish) level through the Census Bu-

reaus American Community Sur-

vey. Since median income data for smaller geographies are not maintained annually by th

Census, GCR deployed a methodology for calculating a median household income estimate

for the households within the BioDistrict and Expanded Area. This approach integrates a

variety of datasets:

The rate at which individual blocks within the respective geographical areas have re-

turned to their pre-storm population and household count

Major redevelopment initiatives such as the redevelopment of public housing

Changes in citywide median household income between 2000 and 2005

Changes in median household income in the New Orleans region between 2005 and

2008 (the most recent date for which parish-wide and metro area-wide income data are

available)

Limited income growth since 2008 as a result of the national economic downturn.

Sources: 1990 and 2000 Censuses, 2005 2008 American Community Survey

Median Household Income:New Orleans and the Nation

Median Household Income: New Orleans and MSA


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The resulting median household income levels for the city of New Orleans, the BioDistrict,

and the Expanded Area are provided in the table below. Because citywide income levels

have not been updated by the Census Bureau since the 2008 American Community Survey,

GCR has assumed a static citywide income gure in 2009 and 2010, given the national eco-

nomic downturn. It should again be noted that the Expanded Area subsumes the BioDis-

trict itself. It should also be noted that the prison population and any other group quarters

population within the District or Expanded Area are not included within these estimates, as

the estimates are for households only.

Per Capita Income

Another way to concisely express the income prole of a particular geographical area is

through its per capita income. The formula for calculating per capita income is extremely

simple: the aggregate income within a particular area divided by the total number of people

within that area. To calculate per capita income, GCR utilized a methodology very similar

to its median household income methodology. Small area data from the 2000 Census were

combined with income growth rates at the citywide and metropolitan area levels. These

modulated income data were then divided by the estimated population for that area, yielding

an estimated per capita income.

The per capita income gures

for the BioDistrict and the Ex-

panded Area have many of the

same characteristics as the median

household income data for these

areas. One principal difference

between the two statistics, however, is that the group quarters population is factored into the

per capita income gure while the group quarters population is excluded from household

income gures.

Disaggregation o Households by Income Tranche

A methodology, similar to the median household income methodology described above, was

deployed in order to disaggregate the households within the District and Expanded Area

into various income tranches. This approach provides a complimentary perspective on the

breakdown of households by income within dened geographical areas. As with the single

median household statistic, these data conrm the low income prole of the BioDistrict and

the Expanded Area.

Sources: 1990 and 2000 Censuses, 2005 2008 American Community Survey, GCR & Associates

Median Household Income, 2000-2010

Source: 2000 Census, 2005 2008 American Community Survey, GCR small area estimates

Income Per Capita, 2000-2010


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When compared to the City of New Orleans as a whole, both the BioDistrict and the Ex-

panded Area have a much greater percentage of households earning less than $15,000 per

year. An astounding 45% of the households within the BioDistrict earn less than $15,000

per year. Approximately the same percentage of households within the Expanded Area

44%also earn less than $15,000 per year. Conversely, New Orleans as a whole has a much

greater percentage of households earning $50,000 or more than the BioDistrict or Expanded

Area has.

Households

Counts o Households By Income Tranches, 2010

Source: 2000 Census, 2005 2008 American Community Survey, GCR small area estimates. Note that the household totals or the City o New Orleansare rom the American Community Survey, which likely underestimates the total number o households in New Orleans. The data are nonetheless useulas an indication o the income composition o households within the city.

Distribution o Household Incomes, 2010


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BioDistrict New Orleans A Low Income Community

Several conclusions can be drawn rom the income data:

By any reasonable standard, the District is a very low income community. In present day 2010, it is

estimated that the BioDistrict has a median household income that is ully 33% lower than that o

New Orleans overallitsel not a wealthy community.

There are very ew middle income neighborhoods within the District. A small exception is the area

bounded by Jeerson Davis Parkway, Iberville Street, Carrollton Avenue, and Banks Street9. Other-

wise, the remainder o the District could almost uniormly be characterized as low income.

The median income o the BioDistrict has declined slightly since 2007, likely the result o a return-

ing low income population.

The BioDistrict has a slightly lower median amily income than the household population o the

Expanded Area. This area captures the edges o some middle income neighborhoods such as the

CBD, French Quarter, Fountainebleau, and middle income areas o Mid-City. Had much o the pub-

lic housing within the Expanded Area remained intact, its median household income would likely

be somewhat lower.

The BioDistrict is home to an extraordinarily high percentage o low income households. Ap-

proximately 45% o the households within the District earn less than $15,000 per year. Within the

entire City o New Orleans, that gure totals 22% o all households

Conversely, a very small percentage o households in the District earns $75,000 or more per year

only 4% o all District households.

9Even this area is perhaps more accurately described as a moderate income community.


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Age o Residents


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25


AGE OF RESIDENTSThe U.S. Census Bureau reports data on the age of residents in two principal waysin the

number of residents within certain age tranches (65 and older, for example) and as a single

median age statistic for geographical areas. These data are updated down to the block level

for the decennial census and at the county/parish level through the Census annual AmericanCommunity Survey.

As with the income data described in the previous section of this report, GCR used its

understanding of block-level repopulation dynamics to extrapolate age group estimates for

the BioDistrict and Expanded Area. Using a methodology that incorporates the pre-Katrin

prole of the area, the pace of recovery, and citywide and metropolitan changes in the age

breakdown of the population, GCR has devised estimates of the total number of residents

within certain age tranches. GCR has developed these estimates for both the BioDistrict and

Expanded Area, as shown in the table below.

Population

Source: 2000 Census, 2005 2008 American Community Survey, GCR small area estimates

Counts o Residents by Age Tranches

2,864


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BioDistrict New Orleans A Typical Age Profle

The ollowing conclusions can be drawn rom the data on the age prole o the BioDistrict:

There are no particularly dramatic dierences in the age prole o the BioDistrict and that o New

Orleans as a whole. The age distribution o the population o the District approximates the age

distribution o the city.

The 18 29 year old population comprises a larger percentage o the Districts population than the

citys population: 24% vs. 20% or all o New Orleans.

Conversely, the 50 and older population comprises a smaller percentage o the Districts popula-

tion than the citys population: 27% within the BioDistrict and 34% in all o New Orleans

Source: 2000 Census, 2005 2008 American Community Survey, GCR small area estimates. Note that the population totals or the city oNew Orleans are rom the American Community Survey, which presents an extremely conservative estimate o population. The data arenonetheless useul as a indication o the age composition o the citys population.

Distribution o Residents by Age


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Household Retail Expenditures


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HOUSEHOLD RETAIL EXPENDITURESHouseholds expenditures on retail goods are tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

(BLS) Consumer Expenditure Survey. The BLS calculates expenditures on various catego-

ries of goods through quarterly interview- and diary-based surveys. BLSs consumer expen

diture data for 2005-2006, published at the geographical level of the Metropolitan Statisti-cal Area (MSA), was extrapolated down to the block group level and to future years by the

Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), a leading provider of geographical informa-

tion systems (GIS) and market research data. Consumer expenditure data for New Orlean

the BioDistrict, and the Expanded Area were compiled by GCR at these three geographical

levels from ESRIs block group consumer expenditure data.

Note that the division of consumer expenditures by expenditure category may exceed 100%

Many expenditures do not t readily into one discrete category and therefore may be dou-

ble-counted in survey reporting. Also, note that the most robust consumer expenditure

datathe raw data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statisticsare only collected at themetropolitan area level. While ESRIs extrapolations to the parish and small area levels are

methodologically sound, they are not the result of direct surveys at those levels. Thus, the

precision of the data at these smaller geographical levels should be viewed with a measure of

caution. Note that the consumer expenditure data for the Expanded Area include consumers

within the BioDistrict itself.

Source: 2005-2006 Bureau o Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey, ESRI, 2008 American Community Survey, GCR Small Area Estimates

Breakdown o Retail Expenditures as a Percentage o Household Income, 2010


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BioDistrict New Orleans Fewer Discretionary Expenditures

The key conclusions that can be drawn rom data on household expenditures are as ollows:

There are proportionally ewer expenditures on discretionary goods and services among the

BioDistrict population as compared to the population o New Orleans at large. This is due to both

a lower median income and the act that District residents spend a smaller proportion o their

income on retail goods and other expenses, such as entertainment and household urnishings.

However, data on household expenditures at the level o a small geographical area, such as the

BioDistrict, must be interpreted cautiously as the most accurate, original survey data are collected

at the metropolitan area level.


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Housing Units and Housing Value


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29


HOUSING UNITS AND HOUSING VALUEData on the number of housing units and their characteristics are collected in detail by the

U.S. Census Bureau for every decennial census. The Census reports data on the number of

owner-occupied, renter-occupied, and vacant units; average and median home values; the

physical characteristics of housing units; costs of rent and mortgage payments; the numberof units for rent and sale; and a variety of miscellaneous housing data.

Each year, ESRI uses Census data to estimate and forecast the number of owner-occupied,

renter-occupied, and vacant housing units, as well as the median value and average value of

these units. These data are extrapolated down to the block group level and are published in

ESRIs Business Analyst data suite. GCR has customized ESRIs housing data for 2010 t

generate estimates for the BioDistrict, Expanded Area, and the City of New Orleans.

These data provide an illuminat-

ing overview of the housingcharacteristics of the three areas,

but they should be viewed with

a degree of caution. The fun-

damental source data for these

gures are still 2000 Census

data, subsequently modulated to

reect local and regional market

conditions. The resulting data,

therefore, do provide a concise

comparison of housing charac-

teristics, but they lack the nuance

and the rigor of real estate data

collected from local resources.

For this reason, GCR has pre-

sented these data as a starting

point for further analysis of real

estate characteristics and has

compiled supplemental real estate

data from a variety of resources

to paint a more complete picture

of the housing market.

In spite of these limitations, ESRIs summary data of housing conditions are presented in

the table below. Note that the data for 2000 are directly from the 2000 Census. Also note

that data for the Buffer/Expanded Area do not include the BioDistrict itself. The data for

the buffer area are only for those blocks immediately adjacent to and outside of the BioDis-

trict.

Source: 2000 Census, ESRI Business Analyst

Summary o Housing Units


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BioDistrict New Orleans An Aordable Residential Market

Several conclusions can be drawn rom the housing data rom the 2000 Census and the estimates

rom ESRI:

The most meaningul (and the most robust) data within the above table are the data on residentialvalue. The way that the Census collects inormation on the median and average value o owner oc-

cupied structures is simple: the Census simply asks individual respondents to estimate the value

o their house. The resulting data usually produce housing value statistics that are lower than those

reported through Realtor sales (which may exclude the lowest valued properties, many o which are

not sold through Realtors).

Based on these sel-reported values, the value o owner occupied homes within the BioDistrict is

substantially below the median value o homes or the city as a wholeover 18% below the citywide

median as o the 2000 Census.

The value o homes within the BioDistrict

is also substantially below the median

value o homes within the Buer area10-

-over 22% below the median value o

homes within the Buer/Expanded Area

as o the 2000 Census.

The 2009 estimates and 2014 projections rom ESRI suggest that this hierarchy o housing values

remains and will persist in the uture, with the BioDistrict remaining a substantially more aordable

market than both the city as a whole and the Buer/Expanded Area.

The vacancy rate within both the BioDistrict and the buer area exceeds that o the city as a whole.

Relative to other cities in the United States, New Orleans did record a relatively high residential va-

cancy rate as o the 2000 censusmore than 12% o all housing units were vacant. While the Census

Bureau is only supposed to count habitable housing units in its inventory o all housing units (both

occupied and vacant), this gure likely refects blight to a certain degree. Similarly, the greater than

14% vacancy rate within BioDistrict (as o the 2000 Census) is also likely a result o neighborhood

blight. Note that the problem o blighted and vacant housing within the District predated Hurricane

Katrina.

The data on owner/renter breakdown, and the estimates o present and uture vacancy (2009 and

2014) should be treated with caution11. GCR has conducted an extremely nuanced analysis o owner/

renter status or 2009; and through a variety o metrics o residential occupancy, GCR has compiled

a robust estimate o the number o vacant properties within the District. These results are presented

in the subsequent sections.

10Again, presented here, data on the buer or Expanded Area do NOT include the BioDistrict itsel.11With the exception o citywide estimates rom 2000these are reported directly rom the Census

On the whole, the BioDistrict is characterized by a modestlysized, moderately priced housing stock.


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Owner/Renter Breakdown

In contrast to the ESRI estimates, which were prepared at the Census block group level, GCR

has utilized more detailed block- and even address-level data to arrive at its estimates of the

present day breakdown of owners and renters within the District, the Expanded Area, and

New Orleans as a whole. These estimates incorporate the aforementioned residential activity

index (which determines which sub-areas and even individual blocks within the District have

repopulated more or less rapidly). They also incorporate the completion of hundreds of units

of new rental housing and the phased redevelopment of the four public housing developments

within the Expanded Area.

The resulting owner/renter estimates are presented in the table below.

BioDistrict New Orleans An Overwhelmingly Renter-Occupied Housing

Stock

The owner/renter data highlight a number o interesting characteristics:

Prior to Katrina, the BioDistrict was an overwhelm-

ingly renter-occupied community, with 75% o the

occupied residential units being rental units.

This gure is skewed even compared to New Or-

leans as a whole, which itsel had a relatively large

renter population prior to Katrina. New Orleans,

prior to the storm, had a housing stock that was

approximately 50% renter occupied12.

Due largely to the completion o hundreds o new

rental units, the BioDistrict has an even greater

percentage o rental occupied units than it had beore Katrina. An estimated 80% o the occupied

housing units within the District are now renter occupied. This stands in contrast to the city as a

whole where a slight majority o occupied housing units are now owner occupied.

The Expanded Area has seen virtually no change in its owner/renter breakdown in recent years and

is also dominated by rental units. Over 77% o the occupied housing units in the Expanded Area are

renter occupied units.

12Source: 2005 American Community Survey

Due in part to the completion o large, multiamilyapartment buildings, the BioDistrict now has a largershare o renter households than it did beore Katrina.

Source: 2000 Census, American Community Survey, small area estimates developed by GCR.

Percentages o Households Occupied by Owners and Renters


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Vacant Housing Units and Properties

The issue of vacant or blighted housing units is one that is of particular relevance to rede-

velopment efforts within the BioDistrict. Blight within the area is not unique to the post-

Katrina period, as the District and the city as a whole were home to a plethora of blightedproperties before 2005. The scale of blight, at

both the neighborhood and citywide level, has

increased exponentially since then, however.

There are many ways to measure the number of

blighted units in the city. One method is to quan-

tify the number of vacant units. As calculated by

ESRI and as shown in the table above, that gure

is estimated to be nearly 90,000 units. However,

this gure likely overstates the blight problem by

including those units that are habitable and well

maintained yet that happen to be vacant.

A more conservative, and robust, estimate is the number of units that are out of service.

The Greater New Orleans Community Data Center (GNOCDC), a local non-prot, has

estimated the citywide total to be 57,000 addresses (a reasonable proxy for a residential unit);

of this total, GNOCDC estimates that over 50,000 are in a blighted state. This estimate is

based on postal delivery dataspecically, the Postal Services estimate of the number of

addresses that are No-Stat addresses13.

Based on the estimated present number of households in New Orleans (139,890) and the

pre-Katrina number of households (188,251)14, the GNOCDCs estimate appears to be a

reasonable and accurate gure. Unfortunately, this postal service-based estimate is not avail-

able for all geographical areas, and this methodology cannot be used to accurately quantify

the number of vacant units or properties within the boundaries of the BioDistrict. An

alternate method, developed by GCR, combines GCRs residential activity index with parcel

data to arrive at an estimated number of parcels or properties that are currently vacant. The

number of vacant or blighted parcels will, by denition, understate the number of vacant

housing units, as many properties have more than one residential unit. Nonetheless, this

remains one of the best ways to quantify residential vacancy at the level of an individual

neighborhood.

Using its activity index, GCR estimates that there are 747 properties/parcels within the Dis-

trict that were active before Hurricane Katrina that are no longer active. This tally does not

include those properties that were vacant before Katrina, and it may include within the tally

some properties that are under renovation. Nonetheless, this gure provides a reasonable

estimate for the extent of blight within the District.

13These are addresses that are not likely to receive mail or some time, according to the letter carrier in the eld. Source: Greater New Orleans Community Data Center(GNOCDC).14The numbers cited are both undamentally conservative. The pre-Katrina gure cited is rom the 2000 Census, while the current estimate o 139,890 households isbased on a reduced pre-Katrina base. Depending on the base data utilized, the discrepancy between present and pre-storm households may be moderately smaller.

Vacant and blighted property, a problem within theDistrict even beore Katrina, is one o the oremostimpediments to redevelopment.


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BioDistrict New Orleans An Ample Supply o Vacant and Blighted

Properties

Data on residential vacancy and blight suggest that blight is a major impediment to the prosperity and

quality o lie o the BioDistrict:

There are approximately 750 vacant residential properties within the BioDistrict that were occupied

prior to Katrina. This tally understates the loss o residential units as a result o Katrina-related food-

ing, as multiple residential units may have occupied a single property

While a precise number o properties that were blighted/vacant prior to Katrina is not available,

anecdotal evidence suggests that blight was a major problem within the BioDistrict and Expanded

Area even prior to Katrina.

Post-Katrina blight and vacancy appear to be relatively evenly dispersed throughout the BioDistrict.

Although one would expect a higher concentration o vacancy within the ootprint o the VA/UMC

acilities, pre-Katrina blight is not shown within the above map. As a result, the map may understate

the degree o vacancy within the ootprint o these acilities.

Source: GCR Activity Index as o March, 2010

BioDistrict


BioDistrict


Parcels Unoccupied Since Hurricane Katrina


44/100

34



45/100


Residential Real Estate


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35


RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATEReal estate trends are important measures of the ongoing or potential impact of investments

from the public, private, and institutional sectors. Over the past ve years, the New Orleans re

estate market has been extremely volatile. During this period, the market experienced a sudden

and profound reduction in supply after Katrina, a steady replenishing of housing supply in therecovery period, a sharp increase in large multi-family developments catalyzed by federal tax

credit nancing, and the relative stagnancy of sales resulting from the national recession.

Recent Trends in Sales and Rentals

Data on real estate sales and rentals is published annually by the University of New Orleans

(UNO) Institute for Economic Development and Real Estate Research in the New Orleans Met-

ropolitan Real Estate Market Analysis. This annual report has been an authoritative source for dat

on commercial and residential real estate trends since its rst publication in 1978, and it bases

its ndings on surveys of owners and property managers throughout the New Orleans metro-

politan area. GCR compiled data from these reports for the following years: 2000, 2005, 20062007, 2008, and 2009. The most recent report that was issued by UNO was published in the

spring of 2010, and it provides sales and rental data for the last full calendar year (2009). Sales

data within these reports are compiled from an address level inventory of Realtor sales that has

been provided exclusively to UNO by the New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors.

The tables below summarize the number of sales and the average sales price of single-family

and condominium sales citywide and in the predened sales areas15 that are within and proxi-

mate to the BioDistrict and Expanded Area.

15The sales areas are known as Multiple Listing Service (MLS) areas, and they are the smallest sub-parish geographical unit at which Realtor sales data are regularly andcomprehensively reported.

Source: UNO New Orleans Metropolitan Real Estate Market Analysis

Summary o Condominium Sales, 2000-2009

Summary o Single-Family Home Sales, 2000-2009


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As with the residential value data reported by the Census and ESRI, the residential Realtor

sales data reported by UNO suggest that the BioDistrict is indeed an affordable market. Of

the seven MLS areas that are within or adjacent to the District, four of the seven have aver-

age single family home sales prices that are below the citywide average. The three areas that

have higher average sales prices than the city as a wholeUptown/Fontainebleau, CBD/

Warehouse District, and the French Quarter are all at the periphery of the District. The

same geographical pattern holds true for condominium sales in 2010.

The relative strength of the New Orleans residential for-sale market should also be noted.

While the average sales price is down somewhat from the peak of the post-Katrina, supply-

constrained period, prices have steadily risen since 2007. This is in contrast to other parishes

within the New Orleans metropolitan area and many other residential markets throughout

the country that have experienced stagnant prices or a severe decline in prices since 2007.

Current Units Available or Sale

Because the most recent sales data in the UNO report are from year end, 2009 and because

more precise geographical data are not available from this source, GCR supplemented these

data with primary data collection and analysis. GCR obtained records on homes available

for sale in the BioDistrict and Expanded Area through the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), a

national real estate database used by Realtors to evaluate market dynamics within neighbor-


BioDistrict



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37


hoods and cities. GCR geo-processed individual

listings of available units and aggregated these

addresses into two geographical areas: the Bi-

oDistrict and the Expanded Area.

One caveat to these data is that Realtor/MLS list-

ings do not include properties sold without the

assistance of a Realtor. Based on a comparison

of Realtor data and home value data collected by

the Census Bureau, Realtor transactions tend to

have a higher average sales price. The residential

for-sale data collected by GCR underscore this

qualication. Indeed, the average asking price

within the District for single family homes for sale as of May 2, 2010 was a healthy $237,400

This gure belies the generally low to moderate income prole of the District. A map of

the individual listings that were tabulated (below) shows a cluster of Realtor listings in the

more stable, middle income areas of the District, close to the intersection of Carrollton Ave-

nue and Canal Street. Thus, while the 250 listings compiled and analyzed by GCR do provide

an extensive and detailed picture of residential sales activity, these data must be understood

in the context of Realtor vs. non-Realtor sales transactions.

Below are tables and a map developed by GCR summarizing all homes available for sale as

of May 2, 2010. The table summarizes homes for sale within the BioDistrict and buffer ar

based on approximately 250 listings. In the map, dots are placed at the listed address and

shaded according to the price per square foot listed in the MLS database. Note that the sum-

mary statistics for the buffer area do not include homes for sale within BioDistrict itself.

For sale properties within the District that are listedby Realtors may disproportionately be located withinthe middle class areas o the District. This would havethe eect o infating the average value o or saleproperties within the BioDistrict.

Source: Data compiled and geocoded by GCR rom Multiple Listing Service (MLS), May 2, 2010. Note that this map displays alltypes o residential properties: single amily, multiamily, and condo.

BioDistrict


Homes or Sale in BioDistrict Area and Expanded Area


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Residential Rental Market

The following summary of rental units within New Orleans and certain geographical sub-

divisions was also compiled from UNOs New Orleans Metropolitan Real Estate Market

Analysis. Rental market information was compiled for the years 2000 and 2006 2009. Un-

like the residential for-sale data, these rental data are not assembled from a single database.

Rather, they are gleaned from surveys of rental property owners and managers. As a result,

the accuracy of the data may vary somewhat from year to year based on respondents partici-

pation and answers. The two geographical areas that are included in the table below, Mid-

City and the Warehouse District, are two of the ve geographical areas within New Orleans

for which UNOs rental data are available. These are the two geographical areas that overlap

the District and the Expanded Area.

Source: Data compiled and geocoded by GCR rom Multiple Listing Service (MLS), May 2, 2010

Homes or Sale in BioDistrict Area and Expanded Area


Summary o Rental Market in New Orleans and Sub-Areas, 2000 - 2009


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As the table suggests, the New Orleans rental market experienced a dramatic shift after Hur-

ricane Katrina as a result of a precipitous decline in supply. Particularly hard hit by Katrina

was the abundant inventory of low cost, non-subsidized rental housing. New Orleans was

home to an extremely large number of affordable units within depreciated 1-4 unit struc-

tures. Many low to moderate income residents were able afford these units without the assis-

tance of any kind of rental subsidy. The loss of these units and the dearth of rental housing

generally caused the average price per square foot gure to increase sharply. Between 2000

and 2006, the average rental price per square foot in New Orleans nearly doubled. The same

pattern of dramatically increased rents also occurred within the Mid-City and Warehouse

District sub-areas. Both before the storm and since Katrina, both areas have recorded rents

that are higher than the citywide average.

Occupancy rates have also been thrown into a state of ux. As shown in the adjacent grap

the rental occupancy rate at all three geographical levels remains slightly below the 2006

level when rental supply in New Orleans was especially constrained. There have been unique

variations in occupancy within the three areas since 2006, perhaps as a result of changes in

supply. In Mid-City, for example, the completion of hundreds of units of new housing may

have suppressed occupancy somewhat before the Mid-City rental market then rebounded in

2009. Also, based on the most recently available occupancy data from UNO, the New Or-

leans rental market appears to be resilient in spite of the national recession.


Post-Katrina Rental Occupancy Rates


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40


Rental Market Sub-Areas in New Orleans

To address these shortcomings, GCR compiled an inventory of available rental units within

the BioDistrict and Expanded area from a variety of sources. Like the list of homes for sale,this list of rental units may not be entirely comprehensive, as it excludes for-rent units that

are not listed within a publication (newspaper, etc.). The list that GCR compiled includes

properties renting through Latter & Blum and other local property management agencies, as

well as those posted independently on craigslist.com. For subsidized units, GCR gathered

data by contacting the following sources:

Louisiana Housing Finance Agency Pipeline Report, January 2010 (projects nanced

through Low-Income Housing Tax Credits and/or Community Development Block

Grants)

Louisiana Recovery Authority, February 2010 (units funded by the Road Home SmallRental program)

Housing Authority of New Orleans, March 2010 (units eligible for Section 8 housing

vouchers)

Expanded Area

BioDistrict



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41


GCR merged data from these different sources to develop a single list of units available for

rent as of approximately June 1, 2010. Because of the varying availability of information

about these units (number of bedrooms, square footage, rent) and because there was not a

sufciently large sample size for the BioDistrict and Expanded Area, these listings have not

been synthesized into aggregate data. Instead, these listings are best used as comparables or as

individual case studies. The full inventory of the approximately 200 units that GCR surveyed

has been provided within the appendix to this document.

A windshield survey of the rental inventory within the BioDistrict and the Expanded Area

reveals a wide variety of rental units. Units range from attractive renovations of historic, late

19th and early 20th century residential buildings to relatively dilapidated units within structures

of the same architectural vintage. Without a doubt, the most notable change in the rental stock

in recent years has been the arrival of hundreds of new rental units within large, multi-family,

predominantly mixed income developments. New complexes, such as the Marquis and the

Crescent Club, have added high quality new units to the area. While some expressed doubt that

this new rental typology would be embraced, occupancy rates at these developments suggest

otherwise.

Source: GCR & Associates

Occupancy Rate o Large Multiamily Apartment Buildings, 2010


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Pending Residential Developments

A signicant number of residential developments are either under construction or in the

nancing and approval phases within the BioDistrict and Expanded Area. Based on newspa-

per reports, interviews with local housing ofcials, and data made available by the Louisiana

Housing Finance Agency, GCR has compiled a comprehensive list of projects, including their

address, anticipated number of units, and sources of nancing. The map below displays the

locations and anticipated number of units for those residential developments in the pipeline;

a full list of pending residential developments in both the BioDistrict and the Expanded Area

is provided in the appendix.

The list compiled by

GCR includes some

developments that were

initially announced as

many as four years ago

yet have not shown any

demonstrable progress.

The likelihood that

some of these projects

will be constructed is

in doubt. There have

been a number of

obstacles over the past

several years to proj-

ects getting underway.

An initial, post-Katrinaspike in construction costs rendered many projects nancially infeasible. More recently, the

downturn in the national economy and lenders unwillingness to nance major developments

have put a number of projects on hold.

Nonetheless, these residential developments

represent the most tangible inventory of po-

tential near term population growth within and

around the District. The ultimate disposition of

these projects, and the markets ability to absorb

new units, is a development dynamic that mustbe monitored closely in the coming years. Their

success or failure will frame the viability of the

residential market and will help to determine

the likely demand for additional residential inll

development in the coming years.

Source: Inventory compiled by GCR.

Expanded Area

BioDistrict

Pending Residential Developments, 2010

The Maritime Building on Carondelet Street withinthe Expanded Area is one o several residential proj-ects currently under construction.


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BioDistrict New Orleans Overview o Residential Real Estate Market

A wide variety o residential data and data sources have been provided within this report. Based on these data, a

number o conclusions can be drawn about the residential real estate market within the BioDistrict:

The extensive sales data collected rom the MLS sales database suggest that home values within the BioDistric

are substantially below values in other neighborhoods and in New Orleans overall. The two MLS sub-areas thatmost overlap the boundaries o the BioDistrictDelgado and Tulane/Claibornehave average sales prices that

are consistently well below the citywide average.

Based on single amily residential units or sale as o May, 2010, one would conclude that the BioDistrict has

a healthy residential real estate market, as the average asking price o these units was just under $240,000.

However, this inventory represents a relatively small sample size, and these units are likely disproportionately

rom the middle income areas o the District.

Based on anecdotal observation and a windshield survey o the District, there are very ew areas o the

District that are currently attracting substantial market rate reinvestment. An exception is the area bounded by

Jeerson Davis Parkway, Banks Street, Carrollton Avenue, and Canal Street.

Flooding rom Hurricane Katrina resulted in a tremendous loss o aordable, unsubsidized residential units.

These units were primarily located in 1 4 unit structures. Due to the loss o these units and an overall con-

strained supply, rents have risen tremendously in recent years. Citywide, the average monthly rent per square

oot has risen by 56% since the year 2000.

Despite a substantial increase in rental inventory in recent years, rental occupancy remains strong within the

core o the city. New multiamily apartment developments within the BioDistrict all report strong occupancy

rates, suggesting that there is demand or new, high-quality rental units within the District. The completion o

the VA and UMC acilities will only strengthen this demand.

Approximately 200 new units o aordable and mixed income rental housing are in the development pipeline

in the BioDistrict. Many more rental units have been proposed or are under construction in the Expanded Area,

particularly in the Warehouse District and Downtown. Rental occupancy has been strong at recently completed

developments, but a number o impedimentsmost notably nancingmay prevent some o these proposed

residential developments rom breaking ground.

Source: Inventory compiled by GCR.

Pending Residential Developments Within the BioDistrict


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Retail Establishments


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RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTSThe current retail landscape within the BioDistrict consists of a wide variety of retail and

other commercial establishments. Little, if any, of the retail activity within the District could

be characterized as high end. Instead, much of the retail serves the basic needs of residents

and businesses within the area. The major loci of commercial activity within the District areCarrollton Avenue and Broad Street. There are also nodes of commercial activity along Tu-

lane Avenue and Canal Street. The retail landscape of the BioDistrict is dened just as much

by what is not there as what is there. Notably absent is a full service grocery store, although

the District does have three drug stores. The District also has no big box retail, few clothing

stores, and almost no discretionary retail establishments, such as furniture, electronic, or

sporting goods stores. Many of the existing retail establishments within the District consist

of convenience stores, gas stations, and automobile parts and repair outlets.

Because of the geographical extent of the

District an

Documents

Demographic and Economic Baseline Report