Democrats set to win Massachusetts, Connecticut Senate races · Massachusetts Senate special election found Brown defeating Martha Coakley 64-32 with them so Warren's really made

Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com

Public Policy Polling 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 2, 2012 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE

Democrats set to win Massachusetts, Connecticut Senate races

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls in Massachusetts and Connecticut find that Democrats are likely to pick up the Senate seat in the former and hold onto the open seat in the latter. Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown 52-46 in the Massachusetts contest, while Chris Murphy has a 52-43 advantage over Linda McMahon in Connecticut.

Scott Brown has a 52/36 approval rating. Usually Senators with those kinds of approval numbers are safe for reelection. But Warren needed to do 2 things in this campaign: solidify the Democratic vote behind her and reduce Brown's advantage with independents. She's succeeded on both of those fronts. 84% of Democrats are planning to vote for her, only slightly less than the 88% of Republicans Brown's winning. And Warren's deficit with independents is only 21 points at 59-38. Our final poll of the 2010 Massachusetts Senate special election found Brown defeating Martha Coakley 64-32 with them so Warren's really made up a fair amount of ground on that front.

In Connecticut our final poll finds Chris Murphy with his largest lead all year at 9 points. He's increased his advantage by 5 points since two weeks ago when he was ahead just 48-44. Linda McMahon, already unpopular, has just become more disliked by voters in the state over the last couple weeks. Only 37% have a favorable opinion of her to 52% with an unfavorable one.

“In August polling found the Democratic candidates trailing in both of these New England Senate races,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Elizabeth Warren and Chris Murphy have closed strongly and appear to be in a safe position for victory, which will go a long way toward helping their party keep its majority.”

Barack Obama leads the Presidential race comfortably in both of these states, 57/42 in Massachusetts and 55/42 in Connecticut. But both of those leads are down considerably from his margin of victory in 2008- he's dropped 11 points from his 26 point win in Massachusetts and 10 points from his 23 point win in Connecticut.

PPP surveyed 1,089 likely voters in Massachusetts and 1,220 in Connecticut on November 1st and 2nd. The margin of error for MA is +/-3.0% and for CT it’s +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

November 1-2, 2012Survey of 1,089 likely votersNovember 1-2, 2012Survey of 1,089 likely voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

[email protected] / 888 621-6988



Massachusetts Survey Results

Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

57% Barack Obama ................................................

42% Mitt Romney....................................................

2% Undecided.......................................................

Q2 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Elizabeth Warren and Republican Scott Brown. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

52% Elizabeth Warren ............................................

46% Scott Brown ....................................................

2% Undecided.......................................................

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

51% Approve ..........................................................

43% Disapprove......................................................

7% Not sure ..........................................................

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

40% Favorable........................................................

54% Unfavorable ....................................................

7% Not sure ..........................................................

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ellizabeth Warren?

50% Favorable........................................................

43% Unfavorable ....................................................

7% Not sure ..........................................................

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Scott Brown’s job performance?

52% Approve ..........................................................

36% Disapprove......................................................

12% Not sure ..........................................................

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John Kerry’s job performance?

50% Approve ..........................................................

33% Disapprove......................................................

17% Not sure ..........................................................

Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election for Senate today, would you vote for Democrat John Kerry or his Republican opponent?

54% John Kerry ......................................................

30% Republican opponent ......................................

15% Not sure ..........................................................

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?

13% Very liberal ......................................................

23% Somewhat liberal ............................................

35% Moderate.........................................................

23% Somewhat conservative..................................

6% Very conservative ...........................................

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

57% Woman ...........................................................

43% Man.................................................................

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

39% Democrat ........................................................

16% Republican......................................................

45% Independent/Other ..........................................

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.

82% White ..............................................................

18% Other...............................................................






Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.

15% 18 to 29...........................................................

24% 30 to 45...........................................................

41% 46 to 65...........................................................

20% Older than 65 ..................................................

November 1-2, 2012survey of 1,089 likely votersNovember 1-2, 2012survey of 1,089 likely voters





Crosstabs

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal

Somewhatliberal Moderate

Somewhatconservative

Veryconservative

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

57% 89% 88% 54% 25% 10%

42% 11% 11% 43% 73% 88%

2% - 1% 3% 1% 2%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Warren/Brown

Elizabeth Warren

Scott Brown

Undecided

52% 84% 84% 47% 22% 9%

46% 16% 15% 49% 78% 90%

2% - 1% 4% 1% 1%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 79% 78% 48% 24% 10%

43% 18% 16% 43% 71% 87%

7% 3% 6% 10% 6% 3%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 11% 11% 40% 72% 83%

54% 86% 84% 50% 23% 11%

7% 3% 5% 10% 5% 6%






Crosstabs

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Warren Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

50% 84% 80% 44% 21% 9%

43% 15% 15% 47% 71% 82%

7% 0% 5% 9% 8% 8%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Brown Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

52% 22% 32% 55% 77% 82%

36% 69% 57% 29% 13% 9%

12% 8% 11% 16% 9% 8%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Kerry Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

50% 74% 76% 46% 28% 4%

33% 15% 11% 34% 51% 80%

17% 11% 13% 20% 22% 16%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Kerry or GOPOpponent?

John Kerry

Republicanopponent

Not sure

54% 84% 85% 51% 24% 9%

30% 12% 4% 30% 55% 78%

15% 4% 11% 19% 21% 13%






Crosstabs

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

57% 59% 53%

42% 39% 45%

2% 1% 2%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Warren/Brown

Elizabeth Warren

Scott Brown

Undecided

52% 55% 48%

46% 44% 49%

2% 1% 3%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 53% 47%

43% 39% 47%

7% 7% 6%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 38% 43%

54% 55% 51%

7% 7% 6%






Crosstabs

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Warren Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

50% 52% 47%

43% 40% 48%

7% 8% 6%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Brown Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

52% 51% 54%

36% 35% 36%

12% 13% 10%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Kerry Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

50% 49% 50%

33% 30% 36%

17% 21% 13%

Base

Gender

Woman Man


John Kerry

Republicanopponent

Not sure

54% 56% 52%

30% 28% 34%

15% 16% 15%






Crosstabs

Base

Party

Democrat Republican Independent/Other

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

57% 89% 11% 45%

42% 11% 89% 52%

2% 0% - 3%

Base

Party


Warren/Brown

Elizabeth Warren

Scott Brown

Undecided

52% 84% 12% 38%

46% 15% 88% 59%

2% 1% - 3%

Base

Party


Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 82% 11% 38%

43% 13% 86% 53%

7% 5% 3% 9%

Base

Party


Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 13% 85% 46%

54% 82% 13% 44%

7% 5% 3% 9%






Crosstabs

Base

Party


Warren Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

50% 79% 13% 38%

43% 14% 80% 55%

7% 7% 7% 6%

Base

Party


Brown Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

52% 27% 87% 62%

36% 59% 8% 25%

12% 14% 4% 13%

Base

Party


Kerry Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

50% 71% 17% 43%

33% 13% 65% 39%

17% 16% 17% 19%

Base

Party



John Kerry

Republicanopponent

Not sure

54% 85% 13% 42%

30% 6% 73% 36%

15% 9% 14% 21%






Crosstabs

Base

Race

White Other

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

57% 54% 71%

42% 45% 27%

2% 1% 2%

Base

Race

White Other

Warren/Brown

Elizabeth Warren

Scott Brown

Undecided

52% 49% 66%

46% 50% 31%

2% 2% 2%

Base

Race

White Other

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 47% 65%

43% 46% 28%

7% 7% 7%

Base

Race

White Other

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 44% 22%

54% 51% 67%

7% 6% 11%






Crosstabs

Base

Race

White Other

Warren Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

50% 47% 64%

43% 47% 26%

7% 6% 10%

Base

Race

White Other

Brown Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

52% 55% 42%

36% 35% 41%

12% 11% 18%

Base

Race

White Other

Kerry Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

50% 50% 47%

33% 33% 31%

17% 16% 22%

Base

Race

White Other


John Kerry

Republicanopponent

Not sure

54% 53% 61%

30% 33% 19%

15% 14% 20%






Crosstabs

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

57% 61% 50% 58% 58%

42% 37% 48% 41% 40%

2% 2% 2% 1% 2%

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65

Warren/Brown

Elizabeth Warren

Scott Brown

Undecided

52% 48% 47% 54% 56%

46% 50% 50% 45% 42%

2% 2% 3% 1% 1%

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 48% 45% 54% 52%

43% 41% 49% 41% 40%

7% 11% 6% 5% 8%

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 34% 43% 41% 38%

54% 61% 46% 55% 54%

7% 5% 10% 4% 8%






Crosstabs

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65

Warren Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

50% 54% 44% 49% 56%

43% 43% 46% 44% 39%

7% 4% 9% 7% 5%

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65

Brown Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

52% 51% 59% 52% 46%

36% 32% 27% 39% 43%

12% 17% 14% 9% 11%

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65

Kerry Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

50% 42% 42% 56% 51%

33% 33% 36% 32% 33%

17% 25% 22% 13% 16%

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65


John Kerry

Republicanopponent

Not sure

54% 56% 49% 58% 52%

30% 29% 29% 31% 33%

15% 15% 22% 11% 15%






Connecticut Survey Results

Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

55% Barack Obama ................................................

42% Mitt Romney....................................................

3% Undecided.......................................................

Q2 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Chris Murphy and Republican Linda McMahon. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

52% Chris Murphy ..................................................

43% Linda McMahon ..............................................

4% Undecided.......................................................

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

51% Approve ..........................................................

42% Disapprove......................................................

7% Not sure ..........................................................

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

41% Favorable........................................................

52% Unfavorable ....................................................

8% Not sure ..........................................................

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Chris Murphy?

40% Favorable........................................................

42% Unfavorable ....................................................

18% Not sure ..........................................................

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Linda McMahon?

37% Favorable........................................................

52% Unfavorable ....................................................

11% Not sure ..........................................................

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Dan Malloy's job performance?

46% Approve ..................

38% Disapprove..............

17% Not sure ..................

Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election for Governor today, would you vote for Democrat Dan Malloy or his Republican opponent?

48% Dan Malloy..............

37% Republican opponent.................

15% Not sure ..................

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?

10% Very liberal ......................................................

19% Somewhat liberal ............................................

36% Moderate.........................................................

24% Somewhat conservative..................................

10% Very conservative ...........................................

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

53% Woman ...........................................................

47% Man.................................................................

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

41% Democrat ........................................................

26% Republican......................................................

34% Independent/Other ..........................................

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.

82% White ..............................................................

18% Other...............................................................






Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.

12% 18 to 29...........................................................

26% 30 to 45...........................................................

42% 46 to 65...........................................................

20% Older than 65 ..................................................






Crosstabs

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

55% 89% 88% 62% 20% 16%

42% 7% 10% 34% 76% 83%

3% 3% 1% 4% 4% 2%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Murphy/McMahon

Chris Murphy

Linda McMahon

Undecided

52% 85% 86% 57% 22% 11%

43% 10% 14% 38% 74% 80%

4% 5% 0% 5% 4% 9%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 86% 82% 57% 18% 11%

42% 5% 13% 35% 73% 84%

7% 9% 5% 8% 9% 4%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

41% 6% 12% 32% 74% 82%

52% 87% 85% 56% 19% 14%

8% 7% 4% 11% 7% 4%






Crosstabs

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Murphy Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 64% 68% 44% 15% 7%

42% 8% 14% 38% 69% 83%

18% 28% 18% 18% 16% 10%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

McMahonFavorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

37% 7% 15% 29% 64% 71%

52% 78% 79% 58% 25% 18%

11% 15% 5% 13% 12% 12%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Malloy Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

46% 68% 64% 49% 29% 13%

38% 15% 20% 33% 53% 76%

17% 17% 16% 18% 18% 11%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Malloy or GOPOpponent?

Dan Malloy

Republicanopponent

Not sure

48% 89% 71% 50% 22% 16%

37% 5% 15% 30% 61% 76%

15% 6% 13% 20% 17% 7%






Crosstabs

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

55% 59% 51%

42% 37% 47%

3% 4% 2%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Murphy/McMahon

Chris Murphy

Linda McMahon

Undecided

52% 55% 48%

43% 39% 48%

4% 5% 3%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 54% 47%

42% 38% 46%

7% 8% 7%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

41% 37% 45%

52% 55% 48%

8% 8% 7%






Crosstabs

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Murphy Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 42% 38%

42% 39% 46%

18% 19% 16%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

McMahonFavorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

37% 35% 38%

52% 53% 51%

11% 12% 10%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Malloy Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

46% 49% 42%

38% 33% 43%

17% 18% 15%

Base

Gender

Woman Man


Dan Malloy

Republicanopponent

Not sure

48% 51% 45%

37% 32% 42%

15% 17% 13%






Crosstabs

Base

Party


Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

55% 88% 16% 45%

42% 11% 82% 47%

3% 1% 2% 7%

Base

Party


Murphy/McMahon

Chris Murphy

Linda McMahon

Undecided

52% 84% 19% 39%

43% 14% 77% 53%

4% 2% 4% 8%

Base

Party


Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 83% 15% 39%

42% 13% 80% 48%

7% 4% 5% 13%

Base

Party


Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

41% 12% 80% 45%

52% 83% 14% 43%

8% 6% 6% 12%






Crosstabs

Base

Party


Murphy Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 65% 16% 28%

42% 16% 73% 50%

18% 19% 11% 22%

Base

Party


McMahonFavorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

37% 13% 65% 44%

52% 78% 24% 42%

11% 9% 10% 15%

Base

Party


Malloy Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

46% 62% 26% 40%

38% 22% 59% 41%

17% 16% 15% 19%

Base

Party



Dan Malloy

Republicanopponent

Not sure

48% 77% 17% 38%

37% 12% 69% 41%

15% 11% 14% 21%






Crosstabs

Base

Race

White Other

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

55% 53% 67%

42% 45% 27%

3% 2% 7%

Base

Race

White Other

Murphy/McMahon

Chris Murphy

Linda McMahon

Undecided

52% 52% 55%

43% 45% 35%

4% 3% 10%

Base

Race

White Other

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 48% 62%

42% 44% 32%

7% 8% 6%

Base

Race

White Other

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

41% 44% 26%

52% 49% 63%

8% 7% 10%






Crosstabs

Base

Race

White Other

Murphy Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 38% 46%

42% 44% 36%

18% 18% 18%

Base

Race

White Other

McMahonFavorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

37% 38% 28%

52% 52% 54%

11% 10% 18%

Base

Race

White Other

Malloy Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

46% 44% 51%

38% 40% 29%

17% 16% 20%

Base

Race

White Other


Dan Malloy

Republicanopponent

Not sure

48% 48% 50%

37% 39% 27%

15% 14% 23%






Crosstabs

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65

Obama/Romney

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Undecided

55% 53% 55% 56% 54%

42% 42% 41% 41% 44%

3% 5% 4% 2% 2%

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65

Murphy/McMahon

Chris Murphy

Linda McMahon

Undecided

52% 47% 50% 53% 56%

43% 42% 46% 44% 41%

4% 12% 4% 3% 3%

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65

Obama Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

51% 44% 51% 52% 50%

42% 44% 41% 42% 44%

7% 12% 8% 6% 6%

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65

Romney Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

41% 46% 38% 40% 43%

52% 51% 53% 52% 50%

8% 2% 10% 8% 7%






Crosstabs

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65

Murphy Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 35% 38% 40% 45%

42% 43% 43% 43% 40%

18% 23% 19% 17% 15%

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65

McMahonFavorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

37% 43% 36% 36% 37%

52% 45% 52% 53% 54%

11% 13% 13% 11% 9%

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65

Malloy Approval

Approve

Disapprove

Not sure

46% 42% 42% 47% 49%

38% 32% 43% 39% 33%

17% 26% 16% 14% 18%

Base

Age

18 to29

30 to45

46 to65

Olderthan 65


Dan Malloy

Republicanopponent

Not sure

48% 53% 49% 46% 50%

37% 34% 37% 38% 35%

15% 13% 14% 17% 15%

Documents

Democrats set to win Massachusetts, Connecticut Senate races · Massachusetts Senate special election found Brown defeating Martha Coakley 64-32 with them so Warren's really made