Democracy in Transition. Russia’s Wrong Turn? Back to the USSR – or to Hell? Perception of Russia as an unfree country Perception of Russia which is more

Democracy in Transition

Russia’s Wrong Turn? Back to the USSR – or to Hell? Perception of Russia as an unfree country Perception of Russia which is more assertive in

international politics Smell of a new Cold War

And, as Cold War rules of conduct require, Russians respond in kind: We are a democracy, a free country Don’t judge us by your standards, because we are a different

civilization What you don’t like is the fact that since 1999, Russia has

become stronger and more independent

Who needs democracy – and for what ends? The Russian experiment with democracy, started in 1985,

was driven by elite perceptions of the efficiency of democratic political systems compared to authoritarian systems

It was expected to save and revive the Soviet system When democratic practices began to threaten the Soviet

system, there was an attempt to suspend it – The August 1991 coup

After the attempt failed, democracy was used as the most effective way of destroying that system

Democracy was a potent weapon against communist rule and the Soviet state

Democracy did help accomplish the demolition mission

What about the mission of construction? How useful has democracy been as a tool to build

a capitalist political economy? It did help accomplish:

The shift to market economy and private ownership Partial legitimization of capitalism Partial integration with the West

Accomplishing even those tasks did considerable damage to democratic governance

Consolidation of capitalism? A capitalist political economy capable of

reproducing and sustaining itself in the context of globalization

Productivity and competitiveness A functional state Improvement of socioeconomic conditions Social and political stability

How does political democracy relate to these tasks?

In general, we can say: democratic capitalism works better than authoritarian capitalism

In the long run, a virtual circle A normative liberal democracy would best suit

Russia But what about the short run?

In the short run, there is a deep and acute conflict between the requirements of democratic development and the tasks of capitalist consolidation

Democracy became an obstacle to consolidation of capitalism, a mortal threat to the preservation of Russia’s post-communist regime

The only way that regime could survive the social upheaval of the 1990s was through subverting and limiting democratic practices in Russia

Putinism Focus on national security Restoration of the power of the state Re-centralization of political authority Fall back on command methods Expansion of the power of security services Increased control of media – both direct and

indirect Increasing resort to Russian nationalist ideas

Obviously, the conflict between democratic development and capitalist consolidation has not been resolved

It has been frozen – for a while At the core of Putinism, is the restoration of a

Russian state – not a Western-type liberal-democratic state, but a state shaped by Russian traditions

A corporate-bureaucratic regime Coexists with society which tolerates it for now –

because it does not see viable alternatives It is rooted in

They support Putin And don’t see Putinism as a threat to freedom BUT: They desperately want socioeconomic change

which would reverse the trends of the 1990s They assert the values of justice and equality They are sceptical about capitalism Agitation for democracy continues Threats to regime are suppressed

WHICH WAY WILL RUSSIA GO?Political attitudes.THE ISSUE OF STALIN -

BUT… Study: T.I.Kutkovets et al., “Self-Identification of the Russians

in the Early 21st Century”. Moskovskie novosti, No.25, 3.07.02

“The Russian System”, 3 main elements:Dominance of the state over the individualPaternalismIsolation from the outside world

“The Modern Alternative”,3 main elements:Priority of individual interests over the stateEmphasis on individual responsibilityOpenness to the outside world

TRADITIONALISTSHard core (support all 3 elements of the Russian

System) – 7%Reserve (support 2 out of 3) – 22%

MODERNIZERSHard core (support all 3 elements of the Modern

Alternative) – 33%Reserve (support 2 out of 3) – 37%

The Russian System loses 29:70Russian society does not want to be treated as a

passive object of the state

Which social system do you consider more normal and proper?

Primacy of individual freedom and personal interests; the duty of the state is to guarantee them –

70%

Primacy of state interests, the duty of the citizen is to help the state do its job -

26%

Not sure -

4%

Most important principles of the organization of the state:70% - adherence to the Constitution

48% - strict observance of laws

What kind of Russia do we need?

24% - a great military power, where interests of the state are supreme

76% - a country comfortable to live in, where human interests are supreme, and people have opportunities for improving their lot

Characterization of the existing Russian state:80% - have no idea where Russia is going (but many

think that Putin knows)

78% - laws are violated by government officials

58% - government officials are corrupt

50% - nothing can be done to stop the bureaucrats’ arbitrary behaviour

9% - citizens can use the courts to defend themselves

11% - citizens can use bribes or help of the criminals to defend themselves

20% - the government helps me

33% - the government creates problems for me

45% - the government does not play any role in my life

WHAT DOES RUSSIA NEED MOST TO OVERCOME ITS CRISIS AND ACHIEVE SUCCESS?

45% - to strengthen the state in accordance with Russia’s historical experience and traditions

54% - to strengthen the state by changing its basic mode of operation

TRADITIONALISTS OR MODERNIZERS?

Which path of development should Russia follow?

(Opinion poll, Feb. 2004, ROMIR):

18% - European 2% - Asian 76% - Russia’s own

Johnson’s Russia List, No.8111, 11.03.04, Item 17

What is democracy?

(Russian public opinion: Yuri Levada Center, March 2004)

44% - civil liberties (freedom of speech, press, association, etc.)

31% - economic growth 29% - order, stability 24% - rule of law 18% - electing top government leaders 11% - a meaningless thing 6% - anarchy


When will Russia become a democracy?

18% - never 10% - it is a democracy already 5% - in 5 years 23% - in 15-20 years 13% - in 20-50 years 8% - in more than 50 years


Russians Americans

Fully agree 15 56

Somewhat agree 37 34

Somewhat disagree 23 5

Fully disagree 11 3

Hard to say 14 2

“Do you agree or disagree that democracy is the best way to govern a state?”

Poll conducted among 1600 Russians and 1060 Americans in June-July 2006 (http://www.levada.ru/press/2006071102.html)

Russians Americans

Much more democratic

16 7

Somewhat more democratic

35 62

Somewhat less democratic

13 19

Much less democratic

8 6

Hard to say 28 6

“10 years from now, will Russia be more democratic or less democratic than today?”


Russians Americans

Very positive 4 14

Positive 20 58

Negative 41 21

Very negative 15 5

Hard to say 20 2


“What is your attitude to US actions to promote democratic freedoms and human rights throughout the world?”

July 2006

One big ruling party 32

2 or 3 big parties 42

Many smaller parties 5

We don’t need any parties 7

Hard to say 14

“How many parties, in your opinion, does Russia need today?”

http://www.levada.ru/press/2006072504.html

March 2006 July 2006

Trust fully 26 18

Rather trust than distrust

47 59

Rather distrust than trust

17 14

Distrust fully 5 5

Hard to say 5 4

“How much do you trust President Putin?”

http://www.levada.ru/prezident.html

March 2006 My family’s Russia’s

Very good/good

9 4

Average 53 40

Bad/very bad 37 42

Hard to say 1 13

Assessments of the economic situation


Good 4

Quiet 26

Tense 46

Critical, explosive 7

Hard to say 16

Assessments of the political situation in Russia, March 2006


I am unable to adapt to the new conditions of life

12

I accept that life as it used to be is gone, and I experience privation in things little and big

24

I have to grab every chance to earn money to make sure life is tolerable for me and my loved ones

29

I have used new opportunities and achieved success

8

I continue living like before, little has changed for me

21

How the Russians are adapting to social change, March 2006

(http://www.levada.ru/press/2006041104.html)

Full trust Some trust No trust ?

President 56 30 7 7

State Duma 11 42 55 12

Fed. Council 11 38 24 27

Fed. Govt 14 39 30 17

Reg. Govt 19 39 28 15

Local Govt 16 35 28 15

Parties 4 28 41 27

Prosecutors 14 31 26 29

Army 20 35 28 17

Police 11 34 42 14

Courts 15 33 27 26

Lab. unions 9 20 33 28

Church 38 21 11 31

Media 22 42 20 16

Trust in institutions

(How much trust do they deserve?)

Documents

Democracy in Transition. Russia’s Wrong Turn? Back to the USSR – or to Hell? Perception of Russia as an unfree country Perception of Russia which is more