PROMISE meeting Paris 13/14 May 2002

DEMETER

Development of a European

Multi-model Ensemble System for

Seasonal to Interannual Prediction

Tim PalmerRenate HagedornFrancisco Doblas-Reyes

PROMISE meeting Paris 13/14 May 2002

Outline

• Verification

Automatic diagnostics on web

First multi-model results

• Hindcast production

Summary of all models

Estimate of ERA-40 production

PROMISE meeting Paris 13/14 May 2002

DEMETER

ERA40

Hindcast production

Multi-model

assessment

Hindcast verificatio

n

End users, application

s

Downscaling

EU and WMO

programmes

PROMISE meeting Paris 13/14 May 2002

DEMETER: Hindcast productionCountry Atmosphere Ocean

Int ECMWF HOPE

France ECMWF OPA

France ARPEGE OPA

Italy ECHAM OPA

Germany ECHAM HOPE

UK UM UM

• Main focus: 1987-1998 (1969-1986)

• 9 member ensembles, 6 month hindcasts, 4 hindcasts per year

ERA-40 initial conditions

SST and wind perturbations

09/86

ERA40 fluxes

11/86

Ocean model integration

(strong relaxation to observed SSTs)

No WP- SST Pert

+ SST Pert

+ WP

- WP

No SST Pert

+ SST Pert- SST Pert

PROMISE meeting Paris 13/14 May 2002

DEMETER: Hindcast production

LODYC: 10*4 + 1 = 41 hindcasts

ERA-40: 10 years and 7 months

ECMWF: 10*4 + 2 = 42 hindcasts

09/86 04/9711/86 02/9702/95

UKMO: 9*4 + 2 = 38 hindcasts

CNRM: 8*4 + 2 = 34 hindcasts

MPI: 6*4 + 1 = 25 hc

02/9611/92

PROMISE meeting Paris 13/14 May 2002

Estimate of ERA-40 ProductionStream 2 Stream 3 Stream 1

PROMISE meeting Paris 13/14 May 2002

Verification System

www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/verification

• Bias• Indices• Deterministic Scores• Probabilistic Scores• Single vs. multi-model results

PROMISE meeting Paris 13/14 May 2002

Bias

PROMISE meeting Paris 13/14 May 2002

Value

PROMISE meeting Paris 13/14 May 2002

Anomaly Correlation Coefficient

PROMISE meeting Paris 13/14 May 2002

Multi-model DEMETER hindcasts

ACC for Niño3 SST for Multimodel, ECMWF, MetFr, MetOf, and LODYC

PROMISE meeting Paris 13/14 May 2002

Multi-model DEMETER hindcasts

SST

Tropical RPSS (JJA) for Multimodel, ECMWF, MetFr, MetOf, and LODYC

Precipitation

PROMISE meeting Paris 13/14 May 2002

Multi-model DEMETER hindcasts

SST

Value (Tropics, JJA) for Multimodel, ECMWF, MetFr, MetOf, and LODYC

Precipitation

Anom>

Anom>0

Anom>

Anom>0

PROMISE meeting Paris 13/14 May 2002

Summary

• 5 DEMETER models are archiving into MARS

Hindcasts from 1987 – 1996 are available

Full DEMETER data set (1969-1998) not available

before end of 2003

free (!) online (!) data retrieval very likely to be

installed and working at the end of 2002• Wide range of diagnostic plots freely accessible on the

DEMETER web site: www.ecmwf.int/research/verification• First results demonstrate value of multi-model approach