Demand Forecasting & Demand Management

Stephen Simpkin

Zenith McIntyre-Allen

Organisational Intelligence

30th January

LARIA East meeting

Essex County Council’s strategy for Transformation:

“Commissioning outcomes based on evidence, in order to protect the most

vulnerable, enable the economy to grow and promote quality of life for Essex residents.”

~ Joanna Killian, Chief Executive

Organisational Intelligence

Why?

• We believe that there will be increased demand for many of our services

• We know that with our current approach we cannot afford to continue to fund services at the same level

• We need the evidence to determine how we prioritise our spending

• We will have a consistent approach to visualising the future in Essex

Organisational Intelligence

4

Demand Forecasting

Population now

Future population

Translate into service take-up

Consider demographic, policy and technological changes

Demand Management

Target Preventative Services

Target Early Interventions

What works / Best Practice

Design innovative interventions

Redirecting / Saying no

Predicting Future Demand & Potential Stressors in

ProvisionPlans to mitigate demand

Analyse Plan

Conventional WisdomGather clear robust evidence that backs-up (or dispels) myths or ‘what we think we know’.

Organisational Intelligence

420,00 babies will

be born

International migration will account for 6% of

population growth compares to internal UK

migration, 72%

Population will grow by 20%

Number of over 85s will

grow by 175%

Working age population will grow by 5% compared to 40% growth among

non-working age

2m people will migrate

to Essex

Over the next 25 years in Essex…

Uttlesford to grow at the fastest rate,

32%

Over 65s to account for 1/3 of the population

Adult Social Care forecasts

Demand Forecasting application

Organisational Intelligence

Adult Social Care – Conventional Wisdom

“Older people population is growing – our services will not be able to cope with the anticipated increase!”

Organisational Intelligence

Adult Social Care – Conventional Wisdom

AIM: Gather clear robust evidence that backs-up (or dispels) myths or ‘what we think we know’

Organisational Intelligence

Reasons for revising forecasts

• Committed to ongoing refresh of forecasts (due to changing environment, health needs, policies, etc)

• As more data (and research) becomes available we can continually fine-tune forecasts

• Attempt a consistent approach to demand forecasting• Confidence in forecasted growth rates• Start from the most informed position possible

Organisational Intelligence

Methodology

Historically demand forecasting models are either ‘Prevalence’ based or ‘Trend’ based

We created a composite model for 4 cohort of Adult Social Care service use (Older People, Mental Health, Learning Disability and Physical and Sensory Impairment)

• Population baseline > Projections > Turning projections into needs groups > Turning needs groups into service use > Informing MTRS and other demand management activities

Organisational Intelligence

Impact

• Revised forecasts broadly reflective of previous forecasts• Able to identify key growth areas/cohorts• Clear and consistent methodology used (which can be easily

updated)• Using revised methodology we determined that we were

previously potentially overestimating the growth of TWO Adult Social Care cohorts

• Adopting revised forecasts into budget tool reduced forecasted spend

Organisational Intelligence

Organisational Intelligence

Crossover with Demand Management

Once future service demand is estimated, there may be scope to attempt to mitigate this demand. Demand management may be possible through:• Changes to existing initiatives (such as targeting preventative

services to the cohorts/geographies that will benefit most);• Early intervention identification (using information available to us

to implement interventions before it is too late);• Best practice learning (what is working elsewhere and can this

be replicated), or;• Design of innovative interventions.

Organisational Intelligence

Next steps• Applying this approach to other areas of Essex County Council activity,

e.g. forecasting pupil numbers, aspects of health/social care integration, place issues such as housing, etc.

• Potential areas for Demand Forecasting/Management:

Organisational Intelligence