Delphi Survey

Prepared by:

Nyssa D. Diaz M.A in Educational Management

The Delphi survey is named after the oracle at Delphi, a city of ancient Greece. The oracle would be asked difficult questions about the future and would then provide advice about likely happenings and how to proceed. In the present day version, experts in a particular field act as ‘oracles’. Their views on well-designed subjects are requested and analyzed by a surveyor. This is done by a short questionnaire, often anonymously in written form, and usually with the experts remaining in their own surroundings.

A Sneak Peak…

What is Delphi Survey?• Delphi survey is a structured

group interaction process that is directed in "rounds" of opinion collection and feedback. Opinion collection is achieved by conducting a series of surveys using questionnaires. The result of each survey will be presented to the group and the questionnaire used in the next round is built upon the result of the previous round.

Delphi Survey’s

OBJECTIVES

To obtain estimates for important parameters in the evaluation framework where no or insufficientpublished data was currently available.

Delphi Survey’s

OBJECTIVES

To consult individuals with a working knowledge of current policy on various aspects of the surveillance and research programme.

Delphi Survey’s

PROCESSInvolves an iterative survey of experts.1Focus on forecasting technological or social developments.2

3 Identify and prioritize policy goals or determining expert opinion about some aspect of affairs that cannot be measured directly by conventional statistical means.

Delphi Survey’s

PROCESSProvide the benefits of a pooling and exchange of opinions so that respondents can learn from each other’s’ views, without the sort of undue influence likely in conventional face−to−face settings.

4Each participant completes a questionnaire and then is given feedback on the whole set of responses.

5

6The idea is that the entire group can thus weigh dissenting views that are based on privileged or rare information.

Glenn, Dick (2000), ICIS, Steyaert and Lisoir (2005)

Delphi Survey’s

RESOURCESAND

REQUIREMENTS

Skills• Expertise in designing questionnaires is necessary.

• Good writing skills are helpful in reformulating and summarizing responses.

• No statistical analysis is necessary.

Equipment• Writing and printing facilities are required to produce the questionnaires and process the information reached in the survey.

Time• Requires several weeks to months, depending mostly on how quickly experts can return answers, and how many repetitions are desired.

• Time can be shortened by doing face-to-face interviews rather than circulating questions by mail.

Delphi Survey’s

STRENGTHS• Expertise from a variety of sources can be combined to provide an overview of the situation at comparatively low cost.

• The survey is designed to get experts to exchange ideas, and generate collected wisdom that should help to ensure that no important issues are forgotten.

• Anonymity reduces the risk of confrontations.

Delphi Survey’s

WEAKNESSES

- Validity of opinions of the ’oracles’ varies with who they are, so a crucial element is the correct selection of experts.

- Relatively long-term commitment is required from the experts.

- A very limited number of participants are included

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