Deloitte 2013 Motor Insurance Seminar · 2020. 11. 9. · 7% 1% 60% 11% 10% 4% 2% Price Service Cover Existing Excess Motor Household Motor • Price is a more significant factor

© 2013 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

19 November 2013

Leading business advisers

Deloitte 2013 Motor Insurance

Seminar Drivers View


Deloitte Motor Insurance Seminar

Welcome and introduction

Glenn Gillard, Partner, Deloitte

Customer Survey

Donal Lehane, Partner, Deloitte

The Market and Survey Views

Glenn Gillard, Partner, Deloitte

The Motor Market, Analysis and Survey Views

Dick Tulloch, Director, Deloitte

Questions and Answers

Chaired by Glenn Gillard

1


Data Sources

• Responses to On-line survey issued with Deloitte invitation

• INCA, Risk Intelligence Ireland

• An Garda Síochána Traffic Statistics

• Central Statistics Office Ireland Transport Statistics

• RAC Foundation (www.racfoundation.org)

• “On the day” interactive survey responses from seminar attendees

• Deloitte 2013 Irish Personal Lines Insurance Customer survey conducted by Amárach

• RSA Road Collision Factbook 2011 with provisional updates to certain tables for 2012

Notes & Data Sources

2


Would you be happy to

trial telematics in your

car?


In a world where companies

are more and more often

measured against market

norms, rapidly available

market data is important. Who

should be responsible for

collating accurate and current

market data?


Donal Lehane

Partner, Consulting

Voice of the Irish Personal Lines

Insurance Customer 2013 Survey Results


About the Survey

Telephone survey of a representative sample of 750 Irish adults

8

751 responses were collected

• 709 of the respondents had motor insurance

• 597 of the respondent had home insurance

Deloitte commissioned Amarach to conduct a telephone survey

(CATI) of a representative sample of Irish personal line

insurance customers during April and May 2013.


Key Findings

How can insurers get beyond price?

9

Price is King

• Price rules when making

insurance purchasing

decisions with over 90%

indicating that price would be

an important factor when

changing insurer

High levels of research

• 60% of researches got 3

or more quote

Multi Channel Usage

• 27% used more than one

channel to do research

• 50% of people who bought

over the phone had done

some research online

Distributor not a factor

• There is little variation

between the types of

customer who buys direct

versus intermediated.

© 2013 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu 10

What proportion of Motor

customers renewed

automatically?


Over 50% of customers researched at their last renewal

Higher levels of research amongst motor customers

12

61%

38%

Motor

51% 47%

Household

• For both products, tenure with existing insurer was the best variable for predicting a customers

behaviour.

• This was followed by purchase channel. Customers who bought online were most likely to research

while those who bought face to face were least likely.


Research drops significantly after 3 years of tenure

Based on their length of time with current insurer

13

100%

81% 81%

54%

35%

57%

100%

80%

65%

51%

30%

22%

Within last 12months

More than a yearago but less than 2

years ago

More than 2 yearsago but less than 3

years ago

More than 3 yearsago

Never Don't know/Can'tRemember

Motor Household

Time since last switched insurer


Over 60% of customers who research get 3 or more quotes

Large opportunity to interact with new customers

14

31%

49%

19%

2%

37%

47%

12%

3%

1-2 3-4 5+ Don't Know/Can't Remember

Motor Household

Number of quotes


Over 60% of customers choose their policy due to price

Clear majority of customers for both products cited price

15

Percentage of customers who cited reasons for selecting their current insurer.

71%

11%

9%

7%

1%

60%

11%

10%

4%

2%

Price

Service

Cover

Existing

Excess

Motor Household

Motor

• Price is a more significant factor for younger

customers.

Household

• Customers who bought online were most

driven by price.

• Those who bought face to face were least

influenced.

Answers do not total to 100% as customers could select multiple reasons


Over 40% of customers said they are ‘very satisfied’

with service

More than 70% are ‘satisfied’ or ‘very satisfied’ with price

16

1%

2%

6%

42%

46%

2%

9%

11%

48%

30%

Very Dissatisfied

Dissatisfied

Neither

Satisfied

Very Satisfied

Price Service

2%

2%

9%

39%

43%

4%

8%

13%

44%

30%

Very Dissatisfied

Dissatisfied

Neither

Satisfied

Very Satisfied

Price Service


Implications for Insurers

17

Understanding where your customers are in their life time is key

Utilising the quotation data is an important opportunity to gain market insights

Given the role of price in driving consumer and insurers behaviour, is the current model sustainable?


What proportion of Motor

customers completed their

purchase online?


Over 50% of customers used online usage for research

27% of customers used more than one channel to research

20

61%

58%

14%

Phone

Online

Face to Face

63%

53%

9%

Phone

Online

Face to Face

Answers do not total to 100% as customers could use multiple channels to research


Only 12% to 15% actually bought online

Are customers choosing channels that enable negotiation?

21

59%

Phone

20%

Face to Face 15%

Online

6%

Other

Channel

54%

Phone

28%

Face to Face 12%

Online

6%

Other

Channel

Region Dublin ROL Munster

Conn/

Ulster Total

Phone 64% 59% 56% 56% 59%

Face to Face 8% 22% 29% 25% 20%

Online 19% 13% 11% 16% 15%


Conn/

Ulster Total

Phone 61% 59% 47% 45% 54%

Face to Face 17% 25% 38% 40% 28%

Online 14% 10% 12% 10% 12%


Implications for Insurers

What can be done to drive consumers to complete their purchase online?

22

Set a bigger mouse trap –being interactive on all digital presences

The face to face channel cannot be written off just yet!

Given the requirement to have multiple channels, having an efficient and effective operating model is vital for maintaining costs.


Direct remains the most popular distributor

Results are common across all customer demographics

23

62%

Direct

35%

Broker

3%

Other

Distribution

52%

Direct

35%

Broker

3%

Other Distribution

10%

Bank


Conn/

Ulster Total

Direct 66% 61% 60% 61% 62%

Broker 30% 38% 37% 37% 35%

Other 4% 1% 3% 2% 3%


Conn/

Ulster Total

Direct 52% 51% 53% 51% 52%

Broker 36% 36% 34% 32% 35%

Bank 8% 9% 10% 14% 10%

Other 4% 4% 2% 3% 3%


Broker customers are marginally less price focused

Potential for brokers to exploit niche segment who are less price focused

24

Percentage of customers who cited reasons for selecting their current insurer.

Answers do not total to 100% as customers could select multiple reasons

75%

10%

9%

2%

63%

9%

11%

1%

Price

Cover

Service

Excess

Direct Broker

63%

10%

11%

2%

57%

6%

12%

1%

49%

5%

13%

3%

Price

Cover

Service

Excess

Direct Broker Bank


Implications for Insurers & Intermediaries

Is there still room for the intermediary?

25

There is still a sizeable segment of customers who are not as price sensitive

Offer bespoke solutions to targeted segments

Banks are under utilising their customer base


A clear majority are willing to try telematics in

exchange for a discount

Surprisingly willingness is common across all segments

26

62%

Yes

35%

No

3%

Don’t

Know

Discount Yes No

0% 0% 9%

1-10% 12% 3%

11-20% 33% 7%

21-30% 26% 10%

31-40% 10% 10%

>40% 11% 19%

Don't Know 7% 41%

Grand Total 100% 100%

What level of discount would you expect?


What do Insurers say? Is your business actively planning to use telematics for rating motor

insurance?

27

37%

19%

44%

Yes - within the next two years

Yes - within the next three tofive years

No


Key areas of focus

A coordinated approach is needed to address these issues

28

Digital

• Ensure your websites are

mobile compatible

• Assess how and when you

can use digital throughout the

policy life cycle

Analytics

• Channel optimisation

• Pricing with a specific

focus on discounting

• Utilising insight from not

taken up quotes

Propositions

Operating Model

Becoming a customer

centric organisation is key.

• Telematics offers a potential

solution


Glenn Gillard

Partner, Financial Services


Seminar The Wider Market


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

€b

n

Total in Ireland Total in EU

Source: INCA, Risk Intelligence Ireland

30

Total Irish Market 2012

Net Premiums


(0.5)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.1)

-

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

€b

n

Underwriting Cycle Insurance Cycle

31


Underwriting and Insurance Cycle



Zurich

Liberty

AIG

Quinn

Rest

Axa

FBD

Allianz

Aviva

RSA

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mark

et

Sh

are

Aviva AXA Zurich Liberty AIG Rest Quinn RSA Allianz Ireland Corporate FBD

32


Market Share by New Written Premium



0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

€b

n


33

Irish Household Market 2012

Net Premiums



(0.5)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.1)

-

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

€b

n


34





AIG

Rest

RSA

Axa

FBD

Allianz

Zurich

Aviva

Liberty Quinn

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mark

et

Sh

are

AIG FBD Liberty Rest RSA Zurich Allianz AXA Insurance Aviva Insurance Ltd Quinn

35


Market Share by New Written Premium



Deloitte 2013 Motor Insurance Seminar Survey Results


2012

approx. average + 3.3%

2013

approx. average + 1.9%

37

What level of price increase/decrease did you apply

in….?

6%

13%

25% 25%

31%

Decreasegreater

than 10%

Decreaseby 5-10%

Decreaseby 0-5%

No Change Increaseby 0-5%

Increaseby 5-10%

10%

30%

25%

30%

5%

Decrease by0-5%

No Change Increase by0-5%

Increase by5-10%

Increasegreater than

10%


What rate changes do

you anticipate for 2014?


What level of price increase/decrease will be applied by

the motor insurance market in 2014?

6%

56%

25%

13%

Decrease by 5-10% Decrease by 0-5% No Change Increase by 0-5% Increase by 5-10% Increase greater than10%


Have you seen a change in

renewal retention in the last 12

months?

41

38%

44%

19%

A reduction No change An increase

50%

No

50%

Yes

Are you satisfied with the level

of dynamic motor portfolio

management information in

your company?


What impact has the gender directive had on overall

motor premium rates in 2013?

6% 6% 6%

13%

19%

13%

50%

63%

25%

31%

19%

25% 25%

Age 18-35 Age 36-50 Age 50+

Decrease by 5-10%

Decrease by 0-5%

No Change

Increase by 0-5%

Increase by 5-10%

Increase greater than 10%


What major impact do you think the economic climate

is having on the Irish motor insurance market during

2013 compared to 2012?

43

75%

25%

Customers shopping around

50%

38%

13%

Business volumes

6%

88%

6%

Customers choosing to give up their NCD in favour of an immediate pay out

88%

13%

Fraudulent claims

69%

31%

Cover level

Increase

No Change

Decrease


Is fraud at the

underwriting stage a

serious issue for motor

insurers?


Are you satisfied with the fraud detection measures in

your company?

67%

Yes

33%

No


2013 2012

Have you seen an increase in the

frequency of fraudulent claims in the last

two years?

What is the major cause for the change in

fraudulent claims?

47

15%

60%

15% 10%

6%

75%

6% 13%

No - adecrease

No - nochange

Yes -increase by0-10% pa

Yes -increase by

10%-20% pa

Yes -increase

greater than20% pa

5%

10%

35%

25%

25%

13%

13%

13%

19%

44%

Other

N/A - no change

Exaggeration of otherwise validclaims

Detection increased due toimproved claims control

Staged accidents/made up claims

Fraudulent Claims


Have you seen an increase in the frequency of fraud at

the application stage?

47%

Yes

13%

No

40%

We only monitor

fraud at claims stage


10%

35%

35%

20%

25%

63%

13%

No - a decrease

No - no change

Yes - increase by 0-5% pa

Yes - increase by 5-10% pa

Yes - increase greater than 10%pa

Have you seen an increase in the number

of claimants per claim on motor bodily

injury claims in recent years?

49

25% 25% 25% 25% 29%

57%

7% 7%

No - adecrease

No - nochange

Yes -increase by

0-5% pa

Yes -increase by5-10% pa

Yes -increase

greater than10% pa

Bodily Injury Claims

2013 2012

Have you seen an increase in claim

frequency for bodily injury claims in

recent years?


Does road safety remain a major issue for concern in

the public mind?

74%

26%

68%

32%

69%

31%

Yes No

2010

2012

2013


Do you feel that the standard of driver behaviour in

Ireland has improved over the last 12 months?

20% 20% 20% 19%

69%

13%

Improved No change Deteriorated

2012

2013


Are you more or less optimistic about road safety in

Ireland than you were 12 months ago?

57%

17%

26%

74%

9%

17%

47%

9%

44%

27%

15%

58% 57%

3%

40%

25%

30%

45%

31% 31%

38%

More optimistic Less optimistic Neither more or less optimistic

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2012

2013


Do you think the Injuries Board has continued to have

a positive impact on the compensation culture?

68%

32%

70%

30%

82%

18%

75%

25%

73 %

27%

65%

35%

75%

25%

Yes No

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2012

2013


What will be the impact of the 2013 Courts Bill?

6%

13%

13%

19%

50%

Large variation in settlements for similar claims

Less acceptances of Injuries Board assessments

Greater uncertainty in liability costs

Not familiar with the 2013 Courts Bill

Overall increase in claims costs


16%

18%

3%

45%

5%

3% 3%

8%

17%

14%

11%

37%

6%

9%

3% 3%

24%

12%

6%

39%

12%

6%

31%

23%

12%

4%

23%

8%

Allianz AXA FBD Aviva Liberty Zurich AIG RSA

2008

2009

2010

2012

55

Who will be the top two insurance groups after

2017?


What are the greatest skills shortages in your

organisation?

25%

IT

31%

Underwriters

25%

Actuaries

6%

Market & Pricing Analytics

13%

Compliance


With increasing optimism

around Solvency II reaching

agreement and a 2016

implementation, have you

moved closer to a pricing

approach incorporating

Solvency II capital issues?



Seminar Drivers View

Dick Tulloch

Director, Actuarial & Insurance Solutions


• Data is derived from Forms 2 (net) and 8 (gross) where appropriate.

• Adjustments are made to some companies data (Zurich & Aviva)

• All data used is on a calendar year (accounting) basis as per forms.

• Definitions and Particulars

• Market Share – Based on Net Written Premiums

• Loss Ratio: 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑙𝑎𝑖𝑚𝑠 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑑

𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑚𝑠 + 𝑂𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑛𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒

• Expense Ratio: 𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑀𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠

𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑢𝑚𝑠 + 𝑂𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑛𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒

• Operating ratio: 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 + 𝐿𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜

• Underwriting Result: 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 – 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑔𝑜

• Insurance Result: 𝑈𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑡 + 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒

60

Irish Motor Market 2012

Definitions

Source: Insurance Statistical Review 2010


Deloitte 2013 Motor Insurance Seminar The Market


-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

€b

n


62


Net Premiums



40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

CP

I

63


CPI of Motor Car Insurance

Source: CSO


500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Reflated Premiums No. Vehicles

64


Reflated Premiums & Number of Vehicles

Source: CSO


(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.1)

-

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

€b

n


65





(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.1)

-

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

€b

n


66





60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Co

mb

ined

Rati

o %

Irish Operating Ratio UK Operating Ratio

67

Irish and UK Motor Market 2012

Results Cycles

Source: INCA, Risk Intelligence Ireland & Deloitte UK


Deloitte 2013 Motor Insurance Seminar Market Positions


Liberty

Quinn

Quinn / Liberty

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mark

et

Sh

are

Liberty Quinn Quinn / Liberty

69


Market Share by Net Written Premium – Quinn & Liberty



AXA

FBD

Zurich

RSA

Allianz

Rest

AIG

Aviva

Quinn/Liberty

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mark

et

Sh

are

AXA FBD Zurich RSA Allianz Rest AIG Aviva Quinn / Liberty

70


Market Share by Net Written Premium



Position 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1 Aviva Aviva Aviva Aviva AXA AXA AXA AXA

2 AXA AXA Quinn AXA Aviva Aviva Aviva Aviva

3 Quinn Quinn AXA Quinn Quinn Quinn RSA RSA

4 FBD FBD FBD FBD FBD FBD FBD FBD

5 Zurich Zurich Zurich Zurich Zurich Zurich Zurich Zurich

6 Allianz Allianz Allianz Allianz Allianz RSA Allianz Liberty

7 RSA RSA RSA RSA RSA Allianz Quinn Allianz

8 AIG AIG AIG AIG Travelers Travelers AIG AIG

71


Market Positions by Net Written Premium



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

AXA Aviva RSA FBD Zurich Allianz QIL Liberty AIG

Net

Exp

en

se R

ati

o

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

72


Expense Ratio



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

AXA Aviva RSA FBD Zurich Allianz QIL Liberty AIG

Net

Exp

en

se R

ati

o

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

73


Expense Ratio – Adjusted for Aviva



Market average: 32.4%

AXA Aviva

RSA

FBD

Zurich

Allianz

Liberty

AIG

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

10%20%30%40%50%60%

Mark

et

Sh

are

Net Expense Ratio

74


Expense Ratio



Market average (Adjusted): 27.7%

AXA Aviva

RSA

FBD

Zurich

Allianz

Liberty

AIG

Market average : 32.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

15%20%25%30%35%40%

Mark

et

Sh

are

Net Expense Ratio

75


Expense Ratio – Adjusted for Aviva


* Average of previous 4 years Aviva experience used for Aviva 2012


AXA

Aviva

RSA

FBD Zurich

Allianz

Liberty

AIG

Market Average: 95.1%*

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

75%80%85%90%95%100%105%110%115%120%

Mark

et

Sh

are

Operating Ratio

76


Total Market Overview – Adjusted for Aviva




Zurich

Allianz

FBD

AXA

AIG

Aviva

RSA

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

75%85%95%105%115%125%135%

Mark

et

Sh

are

Operating Ratio

2012 2011 2010

77


Who’s Going Where? Adjusted for Aviva




AXA

Aviva RSA

FBD Zurich

Allianz

Liberty

AIG

Market Average: 3.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

Mark

et

Sh

are

Investment Return as a % of Technical Reserves

78


Investment Return



Deloitte 2013 Motor Insurance Seminar Garda Enforcement


Offences &

FCN 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Offences &

FCN % Driver Population - Per Annum

Driving While

Intoxicated 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

Speeding 7.7% 6.2% 6.4% 5.6% 9.9% 8.4% 6.1%

Mobile 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9%

Seat Belts 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%

Other 7.5% 7.2% 6.1% 6.1% 5.6% 5.0% 3.8%

Total 18.5% 16.5% 15.0% 14.0% 17.7% 15.5% 11.5%

80


Garda Enforcement

Source: Garda data to August 2013


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Offences &

FCN % Driver Population - Cumulative

Driving While

Intoxicated 0.8% 1.4% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 3.1% 3.4%

Speeding 7.7% 13.9% 20.3% 25.9% 35.7% 44.2% 50.3%

Mobile 1.3% 2.7% 4.0% 5.2% 6.5% 7.6% 8.5%

Seat Belts 1.2% 2.2% 2.9% 3.5% 4.1% 4.6% 5.0%

Other 7.5% 14.7% 20.9% 27.0% 32.6% 37.6% 41.4%

Total 18.5% 35.0% 50.0% 64.0% 81.7% 97.1% 108.7%

81


Garda Enforcement



What do you think are

the catch rates on the

Garda Breathtest

checks?


15,121

12,604

10,579

9,365

7,747

5.5%

2.2% 2.0% 2.0%

1.8%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Driving While Intoxicated (DWI) Intoxication Charge per Test

83


Garda Enforcement



Which of the following

gives rise to the greatest

impairment to driver

reaction times?


35%

21%

12%

26%

46%

Texting Cannabis AlcoholImpairment

Handsfree Handheld

86

Impairment to Reaction Times

% Drop in Reaction Time by Impairment

Source: RAC Foundation - N Reed & R Robbins (2008) The effect of Text Messaging

on Driver Behaviour. A simulator study. Published Project Report PPR367.


Deloitte 2013 Motor Insurance Seminar RSA & Garda Data


% Average Risk 2012 % Average Risk 2011 % Average Risk 2010

Day Collisions Casualties

Casualties

/Collisions Collisions Casualties

Casualties

/Collisions Collisions Casualties

Casualties

/Collisions

Mon 98.0% 100.1% 102.1% 96.6% 95.9% 99.3% 93.8% 93.8% 100.0%

Tue 98.0% 92.4% 94.3% 102.9% 96.6% 93.9% 91.0% 85.4% 93.8%

Wed 95.9% 91.0% 94.9% 101.5% 97.3% 95.9% 93.1% 94.5% 101.5%

Thu 100.8% 99.4% 98.6% 96.6% 90.3% 93.5% 94.5% 90.3% 95.6%

Fri 115.5% 118.3% 102.4% 109.2% 109.9% 100.6% 122.5% 117.6% 96.0%

Sat 91.7% 95.2% 103.8% 98.0% 103.6% 105.7% 103.6% 105.7% 102.0%

Sun 100.8% 104.3% 103.5% 95.2% 106.4% 111.8% 101.5% 112.0% 110.3%

600

800

1000

1200

1400

200

400

600

800

Total Collisions Total Casualties

Road Collisions

Day of Week and Month of Year

Source: RSA Collision Fact Book 2011 with updates


Road Collisions

Time of Day

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2012 2011 2010

From To Collisions Casualties Collisions Casualties Collisions Casualties

12 midnight 6 am 10.2% 11.0% 10.2% 11.0% 10.6% 11.0%

6 am 12 noon 24.0% 22.6% 24.0% 22.6% 23.7% 22.2%

12 noon 6 pm 39.1% 38.8% 39.1% 38.8% 38.3% 37.7%

6 pm 12 midnight 26.6% 27.6% 26.6% 27.6% 27.4% 29.2%

Worst single time is 5 pm 5 pm 4 pm


Total Collisions Total Casualties


Road Collisions

Age & Gender


0

200

400

600

800

1000

0-5 6-9 10-14 15-17 18-20 21-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and Over

Males Injured Females Injured

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

<25 25-45 45-65 >65

% of Collisions Causing Injury/Fatality

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

<25 25-45 45-65 >65

Collisions per 1000 Insured

Males - 2010

Males - 2011

Males - 2012

Females - 2010

Females - 2011

Females - 2012


Road Collisions

Conditions & International Comparison


5.3

3.9 3.9 3.8

5.1 5.5 5.3 5.2

5.9 6.8

6.4 7.1

11.0

6.2

7.8 7.3

5.4 6.3

4.9 4.1

9.6

6.4

4.1

6.4

11.0 10.6

6.3 7.0 7.1

4.8 5.3

4.4

3.1

9.2

6.1

3.5

6.2 7.1

10.6

Iceland Sweden Netherlands UnitedKingdom

Germany Denmark Ireland Finland Spain France NorthernIreland

Italy U.S.A.

Road Deaths per 100,000 Population

2009 2011 2012

74.9% 74.4% 69.6%

23.5% 22.7% 27.2%

1.6% 2.8% 3.2%

2012 2011 2010

Dry

Wet

Winter


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Fata

litie

s

Inju

ries

Injuries Fatalities

92


Fatalities and Injuries per Million Vehicles Registered

Source: Garda

* Injury figures are a provisional estimate for 2012

2012 fatalities by county


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Fata

litie

s

Inju

ries

Injuries Fatalities

93


Fatalities and Injuries per Million Vehicles Registered

Source: Garda

* Injury figures are a provisional estimate for 2012 & 2013


This increase in road

fatalities during 2013.

What might it be due to?


Deloitte 2013 Motor Insurance Seminar Heat Maps


Dublin Heat Map

Crashes



Dublin Heat Map

Deaths



Dublin Heat Map

Minor Injuries



Ireland Heat Map

Deaths by county


2007

2010

2008 2009

2012 2011


Ireland Heat Map

Deaths


Deaths in 2012 per population Deaths in 2012 per registered vehicles


Deloitte 2013 Motor Insurance Seminar Reserving changes?


1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Rati

o

103


Reserve / Paid - Market



1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Rati

o

104


Reserve / Paid – Market Excluding Quinn & Liberty



-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

105


This Year’s Market Reserve Release from each Accident Year


* Quinn excluded


-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

106


Cumulative Market Reserve Release from each Accident Year


* Quinn excluded


Deloitte 2013 Motor Insurance Seminar Some predictions


9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cla

im F

req

uen

cy

108


Claim Frequency per Vehicle, Average Cost per Claim and Exposure Changes


Irish Bulletin of Vehicle and Driver Statistics 2012

* 2013 Exposure Forecast

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Av

era

ge C

ost

Per

Cla

im (

€)

Initial ACPC Current ACPC

1900000

2100000

2300000

2500000

2700000

2900000

3100000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Licenced Vehicles Licenced Drivers


Unemployment Rate Banking & Insurance Earnings

CPI New Private Cars

Motor Trade Earnings

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Rate

of

Ch

an

ge

Banking & Insurance Unemployment Rate CPI New Private Cars Motor Trade Earnings

109


Economic Statistics

Source: CSO

Actual unemployment rate used

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

CP

I o

f M

oto

r C

ar

Insu

ran

ce


1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

(0.4)

(0.2)

-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

€b

n


110





Deloitte 2013 Motor Insurance Seminar Your Final Thoughts?


Surveys would indicate that these change would benefit

organisations?

Better Enforcement of Traffic Laws

Cross market rate increases

More Actuaries & Underwriters!

Less emphasis on regulations

Telematics

Pay as you drive

Fewer market surprises!

Improved rating systems

112


The Gender Directive

would appear to have

been fully accepted by

the public. Do you think

that Age really will be

the next issue?


Questions?


INCA

Insurance Company Analysis (INCA) is a

solution provided by Risk Intelligence

Ireland

INCA Provides:

A single source service that provides

information on revenue accounts, claims

development & reinsurance statistics

A reporting and graphics tool with over 90

presets & configurable reports

Benchmarking capabilities that allows

users to benchmark their organisation

against their competitors

Holistic view of Irish general insurance market To learn more about INCA contact us on Visit: www.riskintelligence.ie Phone: 01 671 6544


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