Deliberative Decision-Making on Issues in a Changing Climate

Carolinas Climate Resilience Conference 2018

M. Lee Bundrick Jr. MPA/MES Concurrent Degree Student, College of Charleston

Coastal Resilience Research Assistant, S.C. Sea Grant Consortium

Exploratory GrantProject made possible by the project team, staff at S.C.

Sea Grant Consortium, and Funding support provided by

the Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of

Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine under award

number 200007353.

Growth in Coastal Communities

Coastal South Carolina Metro Area Population Monthly Growth from 2010-2016 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2017)

Coastal communities are experiencing growing populations and urban sprawl that outpace inland communities threefold (Sandifer et al., 2004; Neumann

et al. 2015)

Rapid changes impact the coastal ecosystem, which poses as a threat to human health and well-being to communities. (Gomez et al. 2013)

Charleston - N. Charleston Metro Area +1340 /month

Myrtle Beach Metro Area +1007 /month

Hilton Head, Beaufort, Bluffton +341 /month

Slade, Charleston Post Courier (May 24, 2018)

Decision-making(Irvin and Stansbury, 2004)

Need to address issues affecting coastal communities through policy

Consider the impact of policies on residents in the community

Collaborative communication and stakeholder engagement utilized to create holistic, integrated policies

Perception of risks in the general public vary and are often polarizing (Flynn et al. 1994; Kahan et al., 2012)

Difficult to determine public value when creating policy

Alex Braud (February 2018)

Deliberative Discussion

Facilitated discussions between residents,

community officials, and natural resource

managers (Slovic, 1987) following an informative

session by an expert (Fishkin and Luskin, 2005)

Deliberation is a catalyst for finding common

ground on topics with opposing views (Bratman, 2014)

Informed decision-making and development of

integrative policies (Gastil et al., 2008; Luskin et al., 2014)

Image source: alexsb.org

Stacey Weinstock (October 2017)

Sunset at Toler’s Cove, Sullivan’s Island (May 2017)

Grant Objectives

● Investigate an approach to educate

and engage coastal residents and

community leaders

● Empower stakeholders to prioritize

coastal management issues and

become more active in local natural

resource management decisions

● Identify insights about coastal

management priorities and decision-

making that they can share with

decision-makers

Our Coastal Future Forum

October 20-21, 2017

● Two-day forum in North Charleston

● Informative sessions from 5 expert

presenters

● 2 small-group deliberation sessions

● 80 participants, 8 break-out groups

Topics Covered

● Changing Coastal Climate

● Biodiversity

● Living Marine Resources

● Environmental Health

● Ocean Mineral and Energy

Resources

S.C. Sea Grant Consortium Product no.:

SCSGC-H-17-06 Briefing Book for October

2017 Forum

Recruitment Flyer

Our Coastal Future Forum

May 2018

● 3 Afternoon Small-Group Forums

● Informative sessions from an expert

presenter at each

● 41 participants, 4 small-groups

Topics Covered

● Climate Change (All)

● Ocean Mineral and Energy

Resources (Myrtle Beach)

● Biodiversity and Living Marine

Resources (Charleston)

● Environmental Health (Beaufort)

S.C. Sea Grant Consortium Product no.:

SCSGC-H-18-05 Briefing Book for Charleston

Small-Group Forum (May 8, 2018)

Recruitment Flyer

Environmental Health

Environmental Health Risk Factors Sandifer et al. 2004, Gomez et al. 2013

● Biodiversity

● Contaminants

● Development

Washout at sunset, Folly Beach (June 2018)

Project Objectives

Learn about coastal residents’ perception of environmental health risk factors

Effect of deliberative discussion on the perception of risks

Investigate the cultural significance of environmental health and its risk factors

Jonathan Green, “Oyster Pickers” (1990)

Research Methods

Survey Data

● S.C. coastal county surveys (n=311)

● Pre- and post-forum surveys (n=97)

● R statistical package (RStudio Team, 2015)

Discussion Transcripts

● Recorded small-group discussions

● Transcripts

● Codebook

● Ongoing...

Code and graph from R Studio (2015)

Survey Questions Environmental Health Factors

● 9 questions

● Scale of 0-10 (no concern to extremely concerned)

● Scale of 1-7 (strongly oppose to strongly agree)

How concerned are you about…

● infections: An increase in infections resistant to antibiotics

● development: The impacts of development on the land and water quality of coastal areas

● biodiversity: Loss of biodiversity Storm on Folly Beach County Park (August 27, 2017)

Survey Data – Residents and RiskCoastal

Resident(n=311)

Pre-Forum

Participant(n=97)

Post-Forum

Participant (n=97)

Biodiversity 7.51 8.48 *** 8.64

Habitat (1-7) 5.72 6.58 *** 6.41 *

Contam 8.54 9.00 * 9.23 *

Ocean 7.48 8.21 ** 8.28

Infections 8.05 8.02 8.89 ***

Waterways 8.31 8.89 ** 8.89

Development 8.47 9.27 *** 9.39

Population 8.07 8.18 8.13

Drainage (1-7) 5.84 5.82 5.94

Figure 2 Results from the analysis of coastal resident survey, pre-forum survey, and post-

forum survey from August 2017 to June 2018. Coastal and pre-forum survey responses

were analyzed using an independent samples t-test with p-values expressed. Questions

regarding environmental concern were asked on a scale of 1 (no concern) to 10 (extreme

concern), unless noted otherwise. Pre-forum and post-forum surveys were analyzed using

a paired t-test. All values are expressed as means with p-values noting statistically

significant values from means to the left: * < 0.05, ** < 0.01, *** < 0.005

Transcripts

Analyze transcripts using several

methods (Cope, 2009)

Grounded Theory

Codebook categories (Strauss, 1987)

● Conditions

● Interactions with others

● Strategies and tactics

● Consequences

Myrtle Beach Small-Group Forum (May 2018)

Categories & CodesConditions Development

Population

Economics

Infrastructure

Biodiversity

Organism

Ecosystem

Resources

Contaminants

Environment

Natural Hazards

Climate

Human Health

Behavior

Knowledge

Interactions with OthersClose Contacts

Residents

Professionals

Government

Business

Non-Profit / Volunteer Organizations

Politics

Strategies and tactics

Policy

Education

Activity

Innovation

Monitoring

Collaboration

Consequences

Efficacy

Beliefs

Negative

Positive

PriorityDunes at Folly Beach County Park (June 2018)

Code Examples

Natural Hazards

Includes mention of severe weather or any

natural hazard such as hurricanes, sea-level

rise, flooding etc.

➢ "So, if you need space for a fish farm,

you cut trees out of an area, then you

put an impervious surface in and you're

increasing flooding." [Bam 00:44:10]Natural Hazards, Resources, Development

➢ "That would have been around the time

of [Hurricane] Sandy, so before the

2015 floods, but the 2014 act would

been around the time of Sandy when

everybody in New England was

impacted and they were trying to deal

with things." [Apm 00:14:00] Natural Hazards, Residents

Education

Mention of education, outreach, or extension

to any individual by means of any type of

learning experience. Marketing tactics are

also included.

➢ "But it has to be translated for the

majority of people in order for the

populous as a whole to come onboard,

accept and go along with it."

[Bpm 01:02:33] Education, Residents, Efficacy, Beliefs

➢ "The complexity of it has to be reduced

for the public, and for politicians, and for

policymakers." [Bpm 01:04:01] Education, Residents, Government

Preliminary ResultsWater quality

● Foster voluntary water quality testing with citizen

science monitoring.

● Educate stakeholders on best management practices

(BMPs).

Contaminants of emerging concern / antibiotic-

resistant infections● Consider the potential benefit of citizen science

monitoring.

● Need to provide information to the public and

legislators.

● Is increased treatment of wastewater necessary?

Loss of ecosystem services● Long-term resilience is being affected by decreased

adaptation to changes.

● Make proactive restoration efforts of wetlands and

oyster reefs.

● Consider conservation easements and sustainable

practices in development at the landscape level instead

of individual lots.Folly Beach (June 2018)

Future Outcomes

Produce knowledge base for local and state government officials and decision makers

Share the policy recommendations from participants on environmental health issues

Test codebook which will allow other researchers and practitioners to analyze discussions relating to environmental health risks

Sunset at Toler’s Cove, Sullivan’s Island (May 2017)

Sources Berman, E., & Wang, X. (2011). Essential Statistics for Public Managers

and Policy Analysts. Third Edition. CQ Press.

Bratman, M. E. (2013). Shared agency: A planning theory of acting

together. Oxford University Press.

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in geography, pp. 440-452.

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ideal: Deliberative polling and public opinion. Acta politica, 40(3), 284-

298.

Flynn, J., Slovic, P., & Mertz, C. K. (1994). Gender, race, and perception of

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Netherlands.

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Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann, J., & Nicholls, R. J. (2015).

Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and

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Image Sources● Slade, David (May 24, 2018). Charleston area, Upstate

cities see explosive growth, while Columbia loses

residents. Charleston Post Courier. May 24, 2018.

Link to article:

https://www.postandcourier.com/news/charleston-

area-upstate-cities-see-explosive-growth-while-

columbia-loses/article_96a00b76-5de6-11e8-88e4-

e78192dc6955.html

● Heller, Martin (2015). Learn to crunch big data with R.

February 11, 2015. InfoWorld.

https://www.infoworld.com/article/2880360/big-

data/learn-to-crunch-big-data-with-r.html

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February 12, 2016. Link: https://alexsb.org/finding-

common-ground/

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https://fineartamerica.com/featured/three-egret-

marsh-keith-wilkie.html

● Green, Jonathan (1990). Oyster Pickers.

● Green, Jonathan (2001). Firegrass.

● Braud, Alex (February, 2018). Oyster Harvest Photos.

Jonathan Green, “Firegrass” (2001)

Thank You

Beach at Melton Demetre “Sunrise” Park, Charleston (February 2018)

Questions?

Beach at Melton Demetre “Sunrise” Park, Charleston (February 2018)