Getting the Green Light:Getting the Green Light:An Environmental Assessment of An Environmental Assessment of

Today’s Passenger VehiclesToday’s Passenger Vehicles

James KlieschJames Kliesch

American Council for an American Council for an Energy-Efficient EconomyEnergy-Efficient Economy

04/10/23

Topical OverviewTopical Overview

Why should we be concerned?Why should we be concerned? What makes a vehicle What makes a vehicle

green/mean?green/mean? How “green” has changed (or not) How “green” has changed (or not)

over the last five yearsover the last five years Top stories of 2004Top stories of 2004 Crystal ball: what lies aheadCrystal ball: what lies ahead

04/10/23

Why be concerned?Why be concerned?

Every 2 seconds in this country, a new Every 2 seconds in this country, a new vehicle is purchasedvehicle is purchased

Every other one of those is a light duty Every other one of those is a light duty truck (pickup, minivan, SUV), typically truck (pickup, minivan, SUV), typically with higher tailpipe emissions and with higher tailpipe emissions and lower fuel economylower fuel economy

U.S. passenger vehicles consume U.S. passenger vehicles consume ~125 billion gallons of gasoline each ~125 billion gallons of gasoline each year.year.

Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) continue to growcontinue to grow

04/10/23

How do you address How do you address consumption & emissions?consumption & emissions?

One way: promote the One way: promote the manufacture and purchase of manufacture and purchase of clean, efficient vehicles.clean, efficient vehicles.

04/10/23

ACEEE’s Green BookACEEE’s Green Book®®

Consumer guide, produced Consumer guide, produced annually since Feb 1998annually since Feb 1998

7th edition (model year ‘04) 7th edition (model year ‘04) released 2/10/04released 2/10/04

Available at www.GreenerCars.comAvailable at www.GreenerCars.com

04/10/23

GreenerCars.comGreenerCars.com

Three main aspects to the website:Three main aspects to the website:– Popular Tables (Greenest, Meanest, Popular Tables (Greenest, Meanest,

Best-in-Class)Best-in-Class)– General consumer info on vehicles and General consumer info on vehicles and

the environment, how to buy green, etc.the environment, how to buy green, etc.– Database of all MY2000-2004 Database of all MY2000-2004

vehicles/configurations (approx. 6,200 vehicles/configurations (approx. 6,200 listings), and their “Green Scores”listings), and their “Green Scores”

04/10/23

What Determines a Vehicle’s What Determines a Vehicle’s Green-ness?Green-ness?

Fuel EconomyFuel Economy– Affects overall GHG emissions, plus non-Affects overall GHG emissions, plus non-

regulated tailpipe pollutants (ex. SOregulated tailpipe pollutants (ex. SOxx, N, N22O)O)

– Affects upstream emissionsAffects upstream emissions Tailpipe EmissionsTailpipe Emissions

– A vehicle’s A vehicle’s emission standardemission standard specifies specifies quantity of CO, HC, NOquantity of CO, HC, NOxx, PM emitted, PM emitted

Embodied Emissions (to lesser degree)Embodied Emissions (to lesser degree)

Emission Standard PrimerEmission Standard Primer

CaliforniaCalifornia– LEV ILEV I– ULEV IULEV I

– LEV IILEV II– ULEV IIULEV II– SULEV IISULEV II– PZEVPZEV

FederalFederal– Tier 2 bin 11Tier 2 bin 11– Tier 2 bin 10Tier 2 bin 10– ……– Tier 2 bin 5Tier 2 bin 5– ......– Tier 2 bin 2Tier 2 bin 2– Tier 2 bin 1Tier 2 bin 1

Select Tier 1 and Tier 2 Full Useful Select Tier 1 and Tier 2 Full Useful Life Exhaust Emission StandardsLife Exhaust Emission Standards

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

PM (g/mi)

NO

x (g

/mi)

Tier 1 LDT4

Tier 1 LDV

Tier 2 bin 11

Tier 2 bin 10

Tier 2 bin 9

Tier 2 bin 8Tier 2 bin 7bin 6

bin 5

04/10/23

Green Vehicles Have...Green Vehicles Have...

High Fuel EconomyHigh Fuel Economy Low Tailpipe EmissionsLow Tailpipe Emissions

Generally, what are those today?Generally, what are those today?– Hybrid-electric vehiclesHybrid-electric vehicles– Fuel efficient gasoline vehicles that Fuel efficient gasoline vehicles that

meet stringent emission standardsmeet stringent emission standards– CNG vehiclesCNG vehicles

04/10/23

Mean Vehicles Have...Mean Vehicles Have...

Low Fuel EconomyLow Fuel Economy Bare-minimum Tailpipe EmissionsBare-minimum Tailpipe Emissions

Generally, what are those today?Generally, what are those today?– Large SUVsLarge SUVs– Large pickup trucksLarge pickup trucks– Performance-oriented sports carsPerformance-oriented sports cars– Diesels (interesting case, because high FE)Diesels (interesting case, because high FE)

04/10/23

What a difference a half-decade What a difference a half-decade makes...makes...

Greenest VehiclesGreenest VehiclesModel Years 2000 & 2004Model Years 2000 & 2004

Model Year 2000Model Year 2000– GM EV1GM EV1– Nissan Altra EVNissan Altra EV– Honda Civic GXHonda Civic GX– Honda InsightHonda Insight– Toyota RAV4 EVToyota RAV4 EV– Toyota Camry CNGToyota Camry CNG– Ford Electric RangerFord Electric Ranger– Chevy MetroChevy Metro– Toyota EchoToyota Echo– Nissan Sentra CANissan Sentra CA– Mitsubishi MirageMitsubishi Mirage– Honda Civic HXHonda Civic HX

Model Year 2004Model Year 2004– Honda Civic GXHonda Civic GX– Honda InsightHonda Insight– Toyota PriusToyota Prius– Honda Civic HybridHonda Civic Hybrid– Toyota EchoToyota Echo– Nissan SentraNissan Sentra– Honda Civic HXHonda Civic HX– Mazda 3Mazda 3– Toyota CorollaToyota Corolla– Hyundai ElantraHyundai Elantra– Scion xAScion xA– Honda CivicHonda Civic

04/10/23

Then again...Then again...

Meanest VehiclesMeanest VehiclesModel Years 2000 & 2004Model Years 2000 & 2004

Model Year 2000Model Year 2000– Chevy SuburbanChevy Suburban– Dodge Ram 2500Dodge Ram 2500– Ferrari MaranelloFerrari Maranello– Chevy SilveradoChevy Silverado– Ford ExcursionFord Excursion– Dodge B2500 VanDodge B2500 Van– Chevy K2500 PickupChevy K2500 Pickup– Cadillac EscaladeCadillac Escalade– GMC Yukon DenaliGMC Yukon Denali– Toyota Land CruiserToyota Land Cruiser– Ferrari 456MFerrari 456M– Land Rover Range RoverLand Rover Range Rover

Model Year 2004Model Year 2004– Volkswagen TouaregVolkswagen Touareg– Land Rover Range RoverLand Rover Range Rover– Ford ExcursionFord Excursion– Dodge Ram 1500Dodge Ram 1500– Lexus LX 470Lexus LX 470– Toyota Land CruiserToyota Land Cruiser– Hummer H2Hummer H2– GMC Yukon XL K2500GMC Yukon XL K2500– Chevy Suburban K2500Chevy Suburban K2500– Toyota SequoiaToyota Sequoia– Lamborghini MurcielagoLamborghini Murcielago– Land Rover Discovery Ser. IILand Rover Discovery Ser. II

04/10/23

Top Stories of Model Year Top Stories of Model Year 20042004

(1) Federal Tier 2 and California LEV (1) Federal Tier 2 and California LEV II tailpipe emission standards go II tailpipe emission standards go into effect.into effect.– Greater #’s of SULEVs & PZEVs -- Greater #’s of SULEVs & PZEVs --

cleanest emissions levels of gasoline cleanest emissions levels of gasoline vehicles evervehicles ever

– On the whole, modest improvement On the whole, modest improvement federally, although standout models federally, although standout models existexist

Increasing Number of SULEV Increasing Number of SULEV and PZEV Nameplatesand PZEV Nameplates

Gasoline SULEV/PZEV Penetration

23

26

4

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Na

me

pla

tes

04/10/23

Top Stories of Model Year Top Stories of Model Year 20042004

(2) Hybrids continue to be a big story(2) Hybrids continue to be a big story– New Toyota Prius, now midsize car, gets New Toyota Prius, now midsize car, gets

3rd highest overall score, and highest 3rd highest overall score, and highest rating of gasoline powered sedans rating of gasoline powered sedans (meets PZEV/Tier 2 bin 3 emissions; FE: (meets PZEV/Tier 2 bin 3 emissions; FE: 60/51)60/51)

– Mild hybrid GMC Sierra Hybrid/Chevy Mild hybrid GMC Sierra Hybrid/Chevy Silverado Hybrid (FE: 19 mpg hybrid vs. Silverado Hybrid (FE: 19 mpg hybrid vs. 17 mpg conventional)17 mpg conventional)

The Growth of The Growth of Hybrid-Electric VehiclesHybrid-Electric Vehicles

MY2000MY2000– Honda InsightHonda Insight

MY2001MY2001– Toyota PriusToyota Prius

MY2003MY2003– Honda Civic HybridHonda Civic Hybrid

MY2004MY2004– Toyota Prius (New)Toyota Prius (New)– GM Silverado/Sierra GM Silverado/Sierra

HybridHybrid

MY2005 and MY2005 and beyond high-profile beyond high-profile hybridshybrids– Ford Escape HEVFord Escape HEV– Lexus RX400HLexus RX400H– Toyota HighlanderToyota Highlander– Honda AccordHonda Accord– Saturn VUESaturn VUE

RumoredRumored– Honda OdysseyHonda Odyssey

04/10/23

HEV Sales HEV Sales Figures/EstimatesFigures/Estimates

Today: ~40,000 annualToday: ~40,000 annual– 50% Prius50% Prius– 47% Civic Hybrid47% Civic Hybrid– 3% Insight3% Insight

2007: ~500,000 annual2007: ~500,000 annual

04/10/23

Top Stories of Model Year Top Stories of Model Year 20042004

(3) Overall, FE continues to decline(3) Overall, FE continues to decline– Most recent confirmed information Most recent confirmed information

shows combined car/truck fuel economy shows combined car/truck fuel economy at lowest level since 1980at lowest level since 1980

– Due to high sales of large SUVs and Due to high sales of large SUVs and pickupspickups

– These market segments have been These market segments have been aggressively pursued by import aggressively pursued by import companies (i.e., not just a Big 3 problem)companies (i.e., not just a Big 3 problem)

Passenger Car/TruckPassenger Car/TruckFuel Economy TrendsFuel Economy Trends

(Hellman and Heavenrich (Hellman and Heavenrich 2003)2003)

Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy, 1975-2002

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

MP

G

Cars

Trucks

Both

Improvements in Low-Fuel Improvements in Low-Fuel Economy Vehicles are CriticalEconomy Vehicles are Critical

14 mpg --> 16 14 mpg --> 16 mpgmpg– (a 14% (a 14%

improvement)improvement)

– Saves 134 gallons Saves 134 gallons annuallyannually

35 mpg --> 51 mpg35 mpg --> 51 mpg– (a 46% (a 46%

improvement)improvement)

– Saves 134 gallons Saves 134 gallons annuallyannually

SUVs on the RiseSUVs on the Rise(J.D. Power and Assoc. 2003)(J.D. Power and Assoc. 2003)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

SUV

Midsize Car

Pickup

Compact Car

Van

Luxury Car

Sports Car

Fullsize Car

The Changing SUV SegmentThe Changing SUV Segment(J.D. Power and Assoc. 2003)(J.D. Power and Assoc. 2003)

2003

30%

42%

16%

12%

Entry SUV

Midsize SUV

Fullsize SUV

Luxury SUV

1998

18%

55%

20%

7%

Reason For Entry/Luxury Reason For Entry/Luxury SUV Growth: Crossover SUV Growth: Crossover

VehiclesVehicles

Are Crossovers Are Crossovers Environmentally Friendly?Environmentally Friendly?

Eco-friendliness depends on use:Eco-friendliness depends on use:– Is it a greener alternative for ski trips Is it a greener alternative for ski trips

to mountains? Perhaps.to mountains? Perhaps.– Can you save the planet by using it to Can you save the planet by using it to

zip around town? No.zip around town? No. Eco-friendliness depends on vehicle:Eco-friendliness depends on vehicle:

– Pontiac Vibe? Yes.Pontiac Vibe? Yes.– Infiniti FX45? No.Infiniti FX45? No.

What Lies Ahead?What Lies Ahead?

Vehicle Technology Crystal Vehicle Technology Crystal BallBall

Near-Term (Present-2010)Near-Term (Present-2010) – Continued improvement of gasoline-Continued improvement of gasoline-

powered vehiclespowered vehicles– Release of new hybrid vehiclesRelease of new hybrid vehicles– Continued deployment of an Continued deployment of an

alternative technologies portfolioalternative technologies portfolio– Room for diesel?Room for diesel?

Near-Term (Present-2010)Near-Term (Present-2010)

Continued improvement of Continued improvement of gasoline-powered vehiclesgasoline-powered vehicles– Lightweight materials use; engine Lightweight materials use; engine

operation (EGR, VVT, etc.); operation (EGR, VVT, etc.); transmission improvements (CVT); transmission improvements (CVT); improved OBDimproved OBD

– Seen today in Honda Civic, Nissan Seen today in Honda Civic, Nissan Sentra CA, Honda Accord PZEV, Ford Sentra CA, Honda Accord PZEV, Ford Focus PZEV, othersFocus PZEV, others

Near-Term (Present-2010)Near-Term (Present-2010)

Release of new hybrid-electric Release of new hybrid-electric vehiclesvehicles– Ford Escape HEVFord Escape HEV– Lexus RX400HLexus RX400H– Toyota HighlanderToyota Highlander– Honda AccordHonda Accord– Saturn VUESaturn VUE– Others: Chevrolet Equinox (2006), Malibu Others: Chevrolet Equinox (2006), Malibu

(2007)(2007)

Near-Term (Present-2010)Near-Term (Present-2010)

Continued deployment of an Continued deployment of an alternative technologies portfolioalternative technologies portfolio– Alt fuel vehicles, primarily in fleet use Alt fuel vehicles, primarily in fleet use

(at least initially)(at least initially)– Electric minicarsElectric minicars– Test deployment of fuel cell vehiclesTest deployment of fuel cell vehicles

Near-Term (Present-2010)Near-Term (Present-2010)

Room for diesel?Room for diesel?– Numerous questions remain about Numerous questions remain about

the viability of significant light duty the viability of significant light duty diesel penetrationdiesel penetration

Diesel Car and Light Truck Diesel Car and Light Truck Retail Sales, 1970-2001Retail Sales, 1970-2001

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

CalendarYear

diesel truck sales

diesel car sales

A Host of Issues AffectA Host of Issues AffectDiesel ProspectsDiesel Prospects

Technology CostsTechnology Costs Health ImpactsHealth Impacts Regulatory ConstraintsRegulatory Constraints Fuel QualityFuel Quality Technical DevelopmentsTechnical Developments Consumer AttitudesConsumer Attitudes

Vehicle Technology Crystal Vehicle Technology Crystal BallBall

Mid-Term (2015-2030)Mid-Term (2015-2030)– Stronger presence of hybrid-electric Stronger presence of hybrid-electric

vehiclesvehicles– Introduction of fuel cell vehiclesIntroduction of fuel cell vehicles

Vehicle Technology Crystal Vehicle Technology Crystal BallBall

Far-Term (2030 and beyond)Far-Term (2030 and beyond)– Stronger presence of fuel cell vehiclesStronger presence of fuel cell vehicles

Need time to develop cell technologies Need time to develop cell technologies and production techniquesand production techniques

Need time to address dual-conundrum of Need time to address dual-conundrum of (1) using hydrogen and dealing with(1) using hydrogen and dealing with storage/infrastructure, or (2) using liquid storage/infrastructure, or (2) using liquid fuel (such as methanol) and dealing with fuel (such as methanol) and dealing with processingprocessing

Thank YouThank You

James KlieschJames KlieschAmerican Council for an Energy-Efficient EconomyAmerican Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy

1001 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 8011001 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 801

Washington, DC 20036Washington, DC 20036

(202) 429-8873(202) 429-8873

jkliesch@aceee.orgjkliesch@aceee.org