30
DEFINING RESIDUAL RISK-SHARING OPPORTUNITIES: POOLING WORLD INCOME COMPONENTS Stefano G. Athanasoulis University of Notre Dame Robert J. Shiller Yale University June 17, 2001 Yale ICF Working Paper No. 00-43 This Paper Can Be Downloaded From Social Science Research Network at: http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract_id=275023

DEFINING RESIDUAL RISK-SHARING OPPORTUNITIES ...depot.som.yale.edu/icf/papers/fileuploads/2460/original/...DEFINING RESIDUAL RISK-SHARING OPPORTUNITIES: POOLING WORLD INCOME COMPONENTS

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • DEFINING RESIDUAL RISK-SHARING OPPORTUNITIES: POOLING WORLD INCOME

    COMPONENTS

    Stefano G. Athanasoulis University of Notre Dame

    Robert J. Shiller Yale University

    June 17, 2001

    Yale ICF Working Paper No. 00-43

    This Paper Can Be Downloaded From Social Science Research Network at:

    http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract_id=275023

    http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract_id=275023

  • #i?�?} +it�_�@* +�t!�5�@h�?}

    �TTLh|�?�|�itG

    �LL*�?} L̀h*_ W?UL4i �L4TL?i?|t

    5|iu@?L B� �|�@?@tL�*�t

    N?��iht�|) Lu �L|hi #@4ic i?_L3@ �L**i}i Lu ��t�?itt

    #iT@h|4i?| Lu 6�?@?Ui @?_ ��t�?itt ,UL?L4�Ut

    �L|hi #@4ic W� eSDDS�DSeS

    +LMih| a� 5��**ih

    v@*i N?��iht�|)c #iT@h|4i?| Lu ,UL?L4�Utc

    �L�*it 6L�?_@|�L? @?_ W?|ih?@|�L?@* �i?|ih uLh 6�?@?Ui

    ���� �L 2fH2SH

    �i� O@�i?c �A fSD2f�H2H

    a�?i .c 2ff

    Wkh dxwkruv duh lqghewhg wr Gdylg Edfnxv/ Ilvfkhu Eodfn/ Vxelu Ervh/ Jxlgr Fd}}dyloodq/

    Mrkq Jhdqdnrsorv/ Pdxulfh Revwihog/ Nhqqhwk Urjr�/ [dylhu Vdod0l0Pduwlq/ dqg Fkulvwrskhu

    Vlpv iru khosixo frpphqwv1 Wklv uhvhdufk zdv vxssruwhg e| wkh XV Qdwlrqdo Vflhqfh Irxq0

    gdwlrq1 Wklv sdshu lv sduw ri dq hduolhu zrunlqj sdshu hqwlwohg _Zruog Lqfrph Frpsrqhqwv=

    Phdvxulqj dqg H{sorlwlqj Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Ulvn0Vkdulqj Rssruwxqlwlhv%/ QEHU Zrunlqj Sdshu

    83

  • �Mt|h@U|

    ì UL?t|h�U| @ ?i� 4i|�L_ Lu _iUL4TLt�?} |�i �@h�@?Ui Lu ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it �?|L UL4�

    TL?i?|t �? t�U� @ �@) @t |L �?_�U@|i |�i 4Lt| �4TLh|@?| �hit�_�@*< h�t!�t�@h�?} LT�

    TLh|�?�|�it @4L?} TiLT*it Lu |�i �Lh*_� A�i h�t! t�@h�?} LTTLh|�?�|�it �i t|�_) @hi

    ?L?t)t|i4@|�U h�t!�t�@h�?} LTTLh|�?�|�it� A�iti @hi |�i h�t!�t�@h�?} LTTLh|�?�|�it |�@|

    hi4@�? �u t)t|i4@|�U h�t! �ihi @*hi@_) t�@hi_c tii �|�@?@tL�*�t @?_ 5��**ih E2fff�� A�i

    ?i� 4i|�L_ _i�i*LTi_ �ihi �tit @ t�4T*ih @TThL@U� |L _ih���?} |�i UL4TL?i?|t M@ti_

    L? T�hi �@h�@?Ui hi_�U|�L?� `�|� |�i ?i� 4i|�L_c |�i �?UL4i UL4TL?i?| tiU�h�|�it

    @hi _ih��i_ �? |ih4t Lu i�}i?�iU|Lht Lu @ |h@?tuLh4i_ �@h�@?Ui 4@|h� Lu �Lh*_ �?UL4itc

    M�| ��|� |��t 4i|�L_ |�i |h@?tuLh4@|�L? �t |L �ti |�i hit�_�@*t ��i? �?UL4it @hi hi�

    }hitti_ L? �Lh*_ �?UL4i �?t|i@_ Lu _i��@|�L?t Lu �?UL4it uhL4 @�ih@}i �Lh*_ �?UL4i @t

    �? �|�@?@tL�*�t @?_ 5��**ih E2ff�� A�i 4i|�L_ �t @TT*�i_ �t�?} 5�44iht�Oit|L? Ebb�

    _@|@ L? ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it uLh *@h}i UL�?|h�it bDf�bbfc �t�?} |�L _�gihi?| 4i|�L_t Lu

    it|�4@|�?} �@h�@?Uit�

    ki)�Lh_tG �L?|h@U| _it�}?c _ih��@|��itc �i_}�?}c _��iht�U@|�L?c 4@UhL 4@h!i|tc U*@�4t

    L? *�?i@h �?UL4i UL4M�?@|�L?t E�wW�t�c �LL*�?} L̀h*_ W?UL4i �L4TL?i?|t ETLL*�?}�

    `W�t��

    a,w �*@tt�U@|�L?G 6ffc Bffc Bf�

  • W? |��t T@Tihc �i _i�i*LT @?_ i |i?_ @ 4i|�L_ d�|�@?@tL�*�t @?_ 5��**ih 2fffc 2ffo

    uLh U�@h@U|ih�3�?} |�i h�t! t|h�U|�hi Lu �Lh*_ �?UL4it @?_ uLh ThL_�U�?} _i?�|�L?t Lu

    @ t4@** ?�4Mih Lu tiU�h�|�it EUL?|h@U|t� |�@| ��** @**L� �t |L Uhi@|i ?i� 4@h!i|t uLh

    4�U� Lu |��t h�t!� A�i tiU�h�|�it �i @_�LU@|i_ �? |�iti i@h*�ih T@Tihtc U@**i_ �*@�4t L?

    w�?i@h W?UL4i �L4M�?@|�L?t E�wW�t�c �L�*_ @**L� �ih) �4TLh|@?| @_�@?Uit �? L�h h�t!

    4@?@}i4i?|� W? |��t T@Tihc �? UL?|h@t| |L |�i i@h*�ih T@Tihtc �i t|�_) |�i �ti Lu �wW�t

    |L 4@?@}i ?L?t)t|i4@|�U h�t!c |�@| �tc h�t! �?hi*@|i_ |L �Lh*_ h�t!c h�t! |�@| �@t @ 3ihL

    Th�Ui �? |�i 4@h!i|� ��h i |i?_i_ 4i|�L_ @**L�t �t |L @U��i�i |�i �4TLh|@?| LM�iU|��i

    Lu tTiU�u)�?} UL?|h@U|t uLh @ �Lh*_ �? ���U� �Lh*_ h�t! �t @*hi@_) |h@_i_�

    �? �4TLh|@?| 4L|��@|�L? uLh _ih���?} |�iti UL4TL?i?|t �t |�i t�4T*�U�|) |�iti UL?�

    |h@U|t @gLh_ |L �?_���_�@*t uLh h�t! t�@h�?}� `�i?i�ih ?i� UL?|h@U|t @hi UL?t|h�U|i_c

    |�i t�UUitt Lu |�i UL?|h@U|t _iTi?_t Uh�|�U@**) L? �L� i@t�*) L?i U@? �?_iht|@?_ |�i

    UL?|h@U|t uLh |�i�h �ti� A��t �ih�u)�?} ��i|�ih UL?|h@U|t |�@| �@�i @ ��}� ThLM@M�*�|)

    uLh t�UUitt uhL4 |�i t|@?_TL�?| Lu t�4T*�U�|) Lgih i?L�}� h�t! t�@h�?} LTTLh|�?�|�it |L

    }�@h@?|ii |�i�h t�UUitt �t �ih) �4TLh|@?|�

    W| uL**L�t uhL4 |�i @?@*)t�t �? �|�@?@tL�*�t @?_ 5��**ih E2fff� |�@| �u @ 4@h!i| uLh

    t)t|i4@|�U h�t! E|�i �Lh*_ TLh|uL*�L� i �t|tc |�i? |�i UL?|h@U|t UL?t|h�U|i_ Mi*L� @hi |�i

    hi4@�?�?} LT|�4@* �wW�t� W| @*tL uL**L�t uhL4 �|�@?@tL�*�t @?_ 5��**ih E2fff� |�@| |��t

    UL?|h@U| _it�}? 4i|�L_ �t hLM�t| |L ihhLht �? @tt�4T|�L?t @ML�| Thiuihi?Ui T@h@4i|iht

    |�i UL?|h@U| _it�}?ih 4@) 4@!i�

    ��h 4i|�L_ �t hi*@|i_ |L Th�?U�T@* UL4TL?i?|t @?@*)t�t @TT*�i_ |L |�i hit�_�@*t Lu

    ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it Et|h�U|*) tTi@!�?}c }hLtt _L4it|�U ThL_�U|tc B#�t�c ��i? hi}hitti_ L?

    L̀h*_ W?UL4i� ��h _@|@ UL?t�t| Lu |�i �i?? L̀h*_ A@M*i _@|@ L? @??�@* hi@* Tih U@T�|@

    B#�t uLh |�i |�i*�i *@h}it| E�? |ih4t Lu bbf B#�� UL�?|h�it bDf�bbfc 4i@t�hi_ �?

    bHD N5 _L**@htc tii 5�44iht @?_ Oit|L? Ebb��

    � ThL_�U| Lu L�h @?@*)t�t �t @ ti| Lu �?_i it E|�@| �tc *�?i@h UL4M�?@|�L?t� Lu ?@|�L?@*

    �?UL4itc _it�}?i_ |L Mi �ti_ @t |�i M@t�t Lu ti||*i4i?| uLh �wW�t� ì ��** hiuih |L

    |�i !�?_ Lu �wW�t _ih��i_ �? |��t T@Tih @t TLL*�?} �Lh*_ �?UL4i UL4TL?i?|t ETLL*�?}�

    `W�t� tiU�h�|�it� A�i !�?_ Lu �wW�t �? L�h i@h*�ih T@Tihc E2ff�c 4@) ?L� Mi U@**i_

    Thi4��4 �Lh*_ �?UL4i UL4TL?i?|t EThi4��4�`W�t� tiU�h�|�it |L _�t|�?}��t� |�i4� A�i

    Thi4��4�`W�t @*tL �@_ @ Th�Ui �?�|�@**) |�@| �@t 3ihLc M�| |�ihi �@t @*tL @ TLt�|��i

    �?t�h@?Ui Thi4��4 |�@| |�i *L?} T@�_ |�i t�Lh|t�

    ì �L�*_ i TiU| |�i TLL*�?}�`W� UL?|h@U|t |L Mi |h@_i_ L? tiU�h�|�it 4@h!i|t ��t|

    @t L|�ih tiU�h�|�it @hi |h@_i_ |L_@)� A�i) 4�}�| @*tL Mi U@**i_ TLL*�?}�`W� u�|�hit

    UL?|h@U|t @?_ Mi |h@_i_ @| u�|�hit i U�@?}it� A�i tiU�h�|�it @hi ?L| Mit| |�L�}�| Lu @t

  • �?t�h@?Ui TL*�U�itc t�?Ui |�i UL�?|h�it @hi TLL*�?} h�t!t ?L| T@)�?} @ Thi4��4 uLh L|�iht

    |L @tt�4i h�t!� W?_���_�@*t �? UL�?|h�it ��** |h@_i h�t! �? Lh_ih |L hi_�Ui h�t! @?_ ?L?i

    Lu �| ��** Mi |L t��u| h�t! uhL4 tL4i UL�?|h�it |L L|�iht uLh @ Thi4��4�

    A�i |�iLhi|�U@* 4L_i* UL?t|h�U|i_ �? |��t T@Tih �t @ L?i Tih�L_�4L_i*� W?_���_�@*tc

    EUL�?|h�it�c U@*U�*@|i |�i�h Thiti?| �@*�i Lu ?@|�L?@* �?UL4i L�ih |�i �Lh�3L? |�i) ��t�

    |L t�@hi h�t! uLhc |�i? M�) @?_ ti** |�i UL?|h@U|t |L 4�?�4�3i |�i�h �@h�@?Ui� A�L�}�

    �? }i?ih@*c @t ?i� �?uLh4@|�L? MiUL4it @�@�*@M*ic |�i �?_���_�@*t 4@) ��t� |L hi�|h@_i

    |�i UL?|h@U|tc �i _L ?L| ThL��_i @ |�iLh) uLh |�@| �ihi� ì �?t|i@_ ��t� |L ThL��_i @

    t�4T*i 4L_i* ��|� tL4i t�4T*i i4T�h�U@* U@*U�*@|�L?t |L tii ��@| |�i Mit| h�t!�t�@h�?}

    tiU�h�|�it ��** Mi @?_ ��@| |�i Mi?i| uhL4 |�iti tiU�h�|�it @hi�

    A�i |�iLhi|�U@* 4L_i* _h@�t L? tL4i Lu |�i tiU�h�|) _it�}? *�|ih@|�hi� W? T@h|�U�*@hc

    |�ihi @hi t�4�*@h�|�it |L |�i 4i|�L_t _i�i*LTi_ M) �|�@?@tL�*�t @?_ 5��**ih E2fffc 2ff�c

    ��?) Ebb��c #��i @?_ a@U!tL?EbHb� @?_ #i4@?}i @?_ w@hL^�i EbbD�� �** Lu |�i

    @ML�i 4i|�L_t L? UL?|h@U| _it�}? @hi �|�*�|) M@ti_ 4i|�L_t ���U� |�i @�|�Lht @tt�4i

    tL4i Thiuihi?Uit uLh |�i �?_���_�@*t @?_ |�i? ?_ |�i 4Lt| �i*u@hi �4ThL��?} UL?|h@U|

    M) tL4i 4i|h�U� A�i 4i|�L_ �? |��t T@Tih �t �|�*�|) uhii @?_ |��t �t uhii uhL4 @?)

    T@h@4i|h�U @tt�4T|�L?t @ML�| �|�*�|) u�?U|�L?t� A�i UL?|h@U|t @**L� @}i?|t |L t�@hi �?

    ?L?t)t|i4@|�U h�t! ���U� �L�*_ Mi |�i L?*) �tiu�* UL?|h@U|t �u @ 4@h!i| uLh �Lh*_ �?UL4i

    �ihi @*hi@_) �? i �t|i?Uic uLh t�U� @h}�4i?|t tii �|�@?@tL�*�t @?_ 5��**ih E2fff�� �?i

    U@? @*tL ?_ @h}�4i?|t uLh t�4T*�U�|) @?_ hLM�t|?itt Lu UL?|h@U| _i?�|�L? uLh |�iti

    UL?|h@U|t �? �|�@?@tL�*�t @?_ 5��**ih E2fff��

    ��h i4T�h�U@* tiU|�L? @*tL _h@�t L? @ �@t| *�|ih@|�hi L? �?|ih?@|�L?@* h�t! t�@h�?}�

    @?) @�|�Lht �@�i U@*U�*@|i_ |�i �i*u@hi }@�?t uhL4 h�t! t�@h�?} @UhLtt UL�?|h�it �? |�i

    �Lh*_�2 ��h 4i@t�hit Lu Mi?i| ��** Mi Thiuihi?Ui uhii @?_ �t �ih) t�4�*@h |L �|�@?@tL�*�t

    @?_ �@? `�?ULLT E2ff�� W? }i?ih@*c hiti@hU�iht @tt�4i tL4i Thiuihi?Uit @?_ t|LU�@t|�U

    ThLUitt uLh UL?t�4T|�L? ELh �?UL4i�c @?_ U@*U�*@|i |�i Uih|@�?|) i^���@*i?| �i*u@hi }@�?

    uhL4 h�t! t�@h�?}� A��t |)Ti Lu i ihU�ti _iTi?_t Uh�U�@**) L? |�i @tt�4i_ �|�*�|) u�?U|�L?

    @?_ |�i ThLUitt �?UL4i uL**L�t� A�i 4i@t�hi �i �@�i �? |��t T@Tih �t Thiuihi?Ui uhii @t

    �u �?_���_�@*t @hi h�t! @�ihtic |�i) ��** @*�@)t ��t� |L _��iht�u) @�@) ?L?t)t|i4@|�U h�t!�

    �t t�U� |�i 4i@t�hit Lu h�t! hi_�U|�L? U@? }��i @? �?M�@ti_ ��i� Lu |�i �4TLh|@?Ui Lu

    |�iti 4@h!i|t�

    4Iru d wkhru| zlwk wkh srvvlelolw| ri uh0wudglqj ri frqwudfwv vhh Dwkdqdvrxolv dqg Vkloohu +5334,15Vhh iru h{dpsoh Dwkdqdvrxolv +4

  • ��h t|�_) Lu hit�_�@* h�t!�t�@h�?} LTTLh|�?�|�it @4L?} ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it �t TL|i?�

    |�@**) �ih) �4TLh|@?|c t�?Ui ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it @hi 4i@t�hit Lu |L|@* iUL?L4�U �i*u@hi Lu

    |�i UL�?|h�itc @?_ t�?Ui |�ihi �@�i Mii? ��t|Lh�U@**) *@h}i �@h�@|�L?t �? hi@* ?@|�L?@*

    �?UL4it� W? 5��**ih Ebb�@� Etii @*tL 5��**ih Ebb�M�� �| �@t ThLTLti_ |�@| 4@h!i|t Mi

    it|@M*�t�i_ uLh *L?}�|ih4c i�i? TihTi|�@*c U*@�4t L? ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it( �| �@t @h}�i_

    |�@|c _itT�|i tL4i TL|i?|�@* ThLM*i4tc t�U� 4@h!i|t @hi �?_ii_ ui@t�M*i� Oihic L�h

    TLL*�?}�`W� tiU�h�|�it ��** Mi _i?i_ @t ?�|i�|ih4c A�)i@hc U*@�4t L? |�i �?_i it E*�?�

    i@h UL4M�?@|�L?t� Lu ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it _i?i_ �ihi� W? L�h i4T�h�U@* �Lh! Mi*L� �i ��**

    UL?t�_ih tiU�h�|�it ��|� A Lu ML|� |i? @?_ uLh|) )i@ht� W_i@**)c |�ihi �L�*_ i�i?|�@**)

    Mi tiU�h�|�it uLh @? @hh@) Lu �Lh�3L?t @?_ uLh TihTi|�@* tiU�h�|�itc tL |�@| TiLT*i ��|�

    _�gihi?| U�hU�4t|@?Uit �? |ih4t Lu )i@ht Lu *�ui i TiU|i_ Lh ?�4Mih Lu �i�ht UL�*_ ?_ @

    tiU�h�|) |@�*Lhi_ |L |�i�h �?|ihit|t�

    ��h @TThL@U� |L _i?�?} �?UL4i �?_�Uitc tL |�@| *L?}�|ih4 U*@�4t L? |�i �?_�Uit

    U@? Mi |h@_i_ uLh h�t! 4@?@}i4i?| �t @ T�hi �@h�@?Ui hi_�U|�L? t|h@|i})� `�|� |��t

    t|h@|i})c �i @tt�4i |�@| �?_���_�@*t �? i@U� UL�?|h) @hi �?|ihit|i_ L?*) �? hi_�U�?} |�i

    �@h�@?Ui Lu |�i�h �?UL4ic @?_ �i UL?t|h@�? |�i i @?|i Th�Ui Lu |�i tiU�h�|�it |L i^�@*

    3ihL� ì tii! |L _i?i UL?|h@U|t t�U� |�@| i Uitt _i4@?_ �t 3ihL @?_ @ 3ihL Th�Ui uLh

    |�i tiU�h�|�itc uLh UL�?|h�it |�@| tii! L?*) |L hi_�Ui h�t! �? |h@_�?} |�iti tiU�h�|�it� ì

    |�i? tii! |L _i?i @ t4@** ?�4Mih Lu tiU�h�|�it |�@| @**L� uLh |�i 4Lt| L�ih@** h�t!

    hi_�U|�L? t�M�iU| |L |�i hit|h�U|�L? L? |�i ?�4Mih Lu tiU�h�|�it� `�|� |��t t|h@|i})c |�i

    4i|�L_ Lu _i?�?} tiU�h�|�it �@t @ U*i@h @?_ t�4T*i hi*@|�L? |L Th�?U�T@* UL4TL?i?|t

    @?@*)t�tG �| |�h?t L�| |�@| |�i LT|�4@* tiU�h�|�it @hi _i?i_ �? |ih4t Lu i�}i?�iU|Lht Lu

    @ tLh| Lu �@h�@?Ui 4@|h� Lu hit�_�@*t ThL_�Ui_ ��i? ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it @hi hi}hitti_ L?

    �Lh*_ �?UL4ic h@|�ih |�@? �? |ih4t Lu |�i �@h�@?Ui 4@|h� Lu _i��@|�L?t Lu �?UL4it uhL4

    �Lh*_ @�ih@}i �?UL4i @t �? �|�@?@tL�*�t @?_ 5��**ih E2ff��

    W? tiU|�L? 2 Mi*L�c �i _�tU�tt �L� |L @TT*) L�h 4i|�L_ Lu _i?�?} |�i �wW� tiU�h�|�it

    |L |�i _@|@� A�L 4i|�L_t Lu it|�4@|�?} �@h�@?Ui 4@|h�Uit Lu ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it @hi @*tL

    �ti_c @ 4i|�L_ |�@| �tit t@4T*i 4L4i?|t _�hiU|*) @?_ @ 4i|�L_ |�@| �tit t|hL?}

    Th�Lh hit|h�U|�L?t |L it|�4@|i� W? tiU|�L? � �i Thiti?| hit�*|t uLh ML|� |i? UL�?|h�it

    E�?hit|h�U|i_ �@h�@?Ui 4@|h� � @?_ |�i*�i UL�?|h�it Ehit|h�U|i_ �@h�@?Ui 4@|h� �� W?

    tiU|�L? e �i �?|ihThi| |�iti hit�*|t @t t�}}it|�?} }i?��?i LTTLh|�?�|�it uLh �4TLh|@?|

    ?i� 4@h!i|t @?_ tiU|�L? D UL?U*�_it�

  • #i?�|�L? Lu �L?|h@U|t @?_ +�t! 5|h�U|�hi

    W? i@U� Lu |�i ?i� 4@h!i|t |L Mi Uhi@|i_c �wW�t @hi |L Mi |h@_i_ |�@| hiThiti?| U*@�4t

    L? @ t|hi@4 Lu �?_i �@*�it @UULh_�?} |L @ t|@?_@h_ UL?|h@U| tTiU�i_ M) |�i tiU�h�|�it Lh

    u�|�hit i U�@?}i� ì @tt�4i |�@| |�ihi @hi� 4@h!i|t Uhi@|i_ �?_i i_ M) ? ' c � � � c � �

    �| |�i Mi}�??�?} Lu @ UL?|h@U| �? |�i ?|� 4@h!i|c @| UL?|h@U| )i@h fc |�i *L?} �? |�i

    UL?|h@U| �t T@�_c i@U� UL?|h@U| )i@h uhL4 | ' c � � � c A c @ h@?_L4 @4L�?| (?| uhL4 |�i

    t�Lh| �? |�i UL?|h@U|c |�i )i@h | R_���_i?_� T@�_ L? |�i �wW� tiU�h�|)c |L Mi _i|ih4�?i_

    �? )i@h | @UULh_�?} |L @ *�?i@h uLh4�*@ _i?i_ �? |�i UL?|h@U| �? )i@h f� A�i _���_i?_

    (?| �t L�h ?|� �wW� tiU�h�|) @| )i@h |c @ *�?i@h u�?U|�L? Lu ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it @UUh��?}

    |L )i@h f TLT�*@|�L?t �? |�@| )i@h� �L|i |�@| |��t _���_i?_ U@? Mi i�|�ih TLt�|��i Lh

    ?i}@|��i� �@|�L?@* �?UL4it �? )i@h | @UUh��?} |L )i@h f TLT�*@|�L?t E���U� �i ��** hiuih

    |L �ihi *LLti*) @t ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it� @hi |@!i? |L Mi Tih U@T�|@ }hLtt _L4it|�U ThL_�U|t

    �? )i@h | |�4it |�i ULhhitTL?_�?} TLT�*@|�L?t @| )i@h f� ì ��** @tt�4i |�@| i@U�

    UL?|h@U| t�}?ih �?_���_�@**) U@? Mi i TiU|i_ |L i@h? ��t Lh �ih t�@hi Lu |�i Tih U@T�|@

    ?@|�L?@* �?UL4i �? t�Mti^�i?| )i@ht uhL4 tL�hUit L|�ih |�@? |�i UL?|h@U|t �i _i?i

    �ihi� A�i *�?i@h u�?U|�L? Lu ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it tTiU�u)�?} |�i _���_i?_ �t _i?i_ �? |�i

    �?�|�@* UL?|h@U| )i@h f tL |�@| |�i Thiti?| �@*�i L�ih A )i@ht Lu |�i u�?U|�L? �t _i?i_ |L

    �@�i @? i TiU|@|�L?c UL?_�|�L?@* L? �?uLh4@|�L? @| )i@h fc Lu f� ì @hi @tt�4�?} �ihi

    |�@| T�M*�U i TiU|@|�L?t Lu u�|�hi hi@* Tih U@T�|@ ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it @hi LM�iU|��i T�M*�U

    !?L�*i_}ic tL |�@| UL?|h@U|t U@? Mi �h�||i? �? |ih4t Lu |�iti i TiU|@|�L?tc |�L�}�

    �? Th@U|�Ui tL4i hL�}� ThL ) uLh |�i i TiU|@|�L?t �L�*_ �@�i |L Mi �ti_ M) UL?|h@U|

    _it�}?iht� ì t|�_) |�i UL?|h@U|t uhL4 |�i t|@?_TL�?| Lu |�i )i@h |�i) @hi �?�|�@|i_c

    )i@h fc L?*)�

    wi| �t _i?i |�i � a h@?_L4 �iU|Lh j ��Lti �|� i*i4i?|c � ' c � � � c a c �t |�iThiti?| �@*�i �? )i@h f E|�i )i@h |�i UL?|h@U| �t 4@_i� Lu hi@* Tih U@T�|@ ?@|�L?@* �?UL4i

    uLh UL�?|h) � uLh |�i )i@ht |�hL�}� A 4�?�t |�i i TiU|@|�L? @| )i@h f Lu |��t Thiti?|

    �@*�ic @** |�4it TLT�*@|�L? Lu UL�?|h) � �? )i@h f�� A��tc |@!�?} ,f @t |�i i TiU|@|�L?t

    LTih@|Lh UL?_�|�L?@* L? �?uLh4@|�L? @�@�*@M*i @| )i@h fc �i �@�i |�@| ,fj ' f @?_

    |�i UL?_�|�L?@* �@h�@?Ui 4@|h� uLh A�)i@h Thiti?| �@*�i Lu ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it @UUh��?} |L

    U�hhi?| TLT�*@|�L?t �t P ' ,fEj�j��

    A�i ?|� �wW� tiU�h�|) �@t @ Thiti?| �@*�i Lu _���_i?_ T@)L�| (? ��ihi (? ' j�?

    @?_ �? �t @ a � i*i4i?| �iU|Lh ��Lti �|� i*i4i?| �t |�i uh@U|�L? Lu ?@|�L?@* �?UL4i6Lq sudfwlfh/ zh xvh uhdo jurvv grphvwlf surgxfw wr sur{| iru qdwlrqdo lqfrph1 Zh xvh d frqvwdqw

    uhdo glvfrxqw udwh/ wkh vdph iru doo frxqwulhv/ htxdo lq rxu hpslulfdo zrun ehorz wr 5(1

    e

  • Lu UL�?|h) � |�@| �t T@�_ @t |�i _���_i?_ L? L?i tiU�h�|) �? 4@h!i| ?� �L|i |�@| |�i

    _���_i?_ U@? Mi i�|�ih TLt�|��i Lh ?i}@|��i� �tt�4�?} |�@| |�ihi ��** Mi � _�gihi?|

    !�?_t Lu tiU�h�|�it |h@_i_c f � a c *i| �t Uhi@|i @? � �i*i4i?| �iU|Lh # ��Lti ?|�

    i*i4i?| �t (? @?_ @ a �� 4@|h� � ��Lti ?|� UL*�4? �t �?� A�i?c # ' j�c @?_ #��** Mi |�i Thiti?| �@*�i Lu L�h _it�hi_ �iU|Lh Lu |�i �?_i �@*�it�

    wi| �t t�TTLti |�@| |�i UL?|h@U| �i�}�|t � _i?�?} |�i tiU�h�|�it @hi ?Lh4@*�3i_

    tL |�@| ,E#�#� ' Wc ��ihi W �t |�i � �� �_i?|�|) 4@|h� � A��t ?Lh4@*�3@|�L? 4i@?t|�@| |�i �@h�@?Ui Lu |�i Thiti?| �@*�i Lu A )i@ht Lu _���_i?_t E_���_i?_t 4i@t�hi_ �?

    |�L�t@?_t Lu bHD _L**@ht�c t�44�?} uhL4 | ' c � � � c A c �t L?ic @?_ |�i UL�@h�@?Uit Lu

    |�i Thiti?| �@*�i Lu A )i@ht Lu _���_i?_t ��|� |�i Thiti?| �@*�it Lu A�)i@ht Lu _���_i?_t

    Lu @** L|�ih 4@h!i|t @hi 3ihL� A��t ?Lh4@*�3@|�L? �@t ?L igiU| L? |�i tiU�h�|�it< @M�*�|)

    |L �i_}i h�t!� A�i ?Lh4@*�3@|�L? ��** �@�i |�i igiU| Lu |i?_�?} |L 4@!i |�i i*i4i?|t Lu

    � �ih) t4@**c tL |�@| UL?|h@U| t�3i �t t��|@M*i uLh |h@_�?} M) �?_���_�@*t�

    2 W?_i #it�}? i|�L_G ��hi V@h�@?Ui +i_�U|�L?

    `�|� |��t 4i|�L_ �i tii! |L _it�}? �?UL4i UL4TL?i?| tiU�h�|�itc ETLL*�?}�`W�t�c ��Lti

    Th�Ui _i?i_ @| |�i _@|i |�i UL?|h@U| Mi}�?tc | ' fc �t 3ihL� #it�}?�?} UL?|h@U|t ��Lti

    Th�Ui �t 3ihL �?�|�@**) �t @?@*L}L�t |L �?_ih�h�|iht< _it�}?�?} ML?_t |L ti** @| T@h L? �tt�i�

    �L|i |�@| t�?Ui �i �@�i _i4i@?i_ ?@|�L?@* �?UL4itc |h@_�?} �? |�i 3ihL�Th�Ui UL?|h@U|t

    @| |�i �?�|�@* _@|i �@t ?L igiU| L? L?i

  • @ ?�4Mih ^?� Lu |�i ?|� tiU�h�|) tL |�@| |�i �?i TiU|i_ UL4TL?i?| Lu |�@| UL�?|h)

  • u ' ��P�P�� E��P�� �b� E��P�> Ee���ihi b @?_ > @hi w@}h@?}i 4�*|�T*�iht uLh |�i |�L UL?t|h@�?|t� #�gihi?|�@|�?} ��|�

    hitTiU| |L �c �i _ih��i |�i ht| Lh_ih UL?_�|�L?G

    Yu

    Y�' 2P�P�� 2P�b�P> ' f� ED�

    �hi4�*|�T*)�?} |�i @ML�i i^�@|�L? M) ��c @?_ �t�?} |�i u@U|t |�@| ��P ' f @?_

    ��P� ' c �i ?_ |�@| b ' ��P�P� ' ^�^�( |��t �t |�i |L|@* �i�}�|i_ �@h�@?Ui

    hi_�U|�L?c |�i �i�}�|i_ t�4 Lu |�i �@h�@?Ui hi_�U|�L?t @UhLtt @** UL�?|h�it� �hi4�*|��

    T*)�?} ED� M) � @?_ �t�?} @}@�? |�@| ��P ' fc �i ?_ |�@| > ' 2�P�P�*E�P��

    5�Mt|�|�|�?} uLh > �? i^�@|�L? ED�c �i ?_G

    E�P� E�P�3�P�P�� ' �b ES�tL |�@| � �t ThLTLh|�L?@* |L @? i�}i?�iU|Lhc @?_ b �t |�i ULhhitTL?_�?} i�}i?�@*�ic Lu

    |�i 4@|h� |�@| Thi4�*|�T*�it � L? |�i *iu| �@?_ t�_i Lu ES�� W| �t �?t|h�U|��i |L �h�|i

    |�i t@4i i^�@|�L? �? |ih4t Lu ^G

    EP�PE�P�3�P��^� � �P�^� ' ^�b E.���ihi � W� E�P�3�P� W| ��** Mi hiUL}?�3i_ |�@| |�i 4@|h� �t |�i �_i4TL|i?|4@|h� t�U� |�@| j �t |�i �iU|Lh ��Lti �|� i*i4i?| �t |�i hit�_�@* ��i? |�i �|�

    i*i4i?| Lu j E�|� UL�?|h)

  • ��ihi b?c ? ' c � � � c � @hi w@}h@?}i 4�*|�T*�iht uLh |�i UL?t|h@�?| |�@| |�i _�@}L?@*

    i*i4i?|t Lu ��P� i^�@* L?ic @?_ ��ihi > �t |�i � � �iU|Lh Lu w@}h@?}i 4�*|�T*�ihtuLh |�i 4@h!i| U*i@h�?} UL?t|h@�?|t� #�gihi?|�@|�?} ��|� hitTiU| |L |�i 4@|h� �c �i

    ?_G

    Yu

    Y�' 2P�P�� 2P�\�P>� ' f Eb�

    ��ihi\ �t @��� _�@}L?@* 4@|h� ��ihi |�i ?|� _�@}L?@* i*i4i?| �t b?� �hi4�*|�T*)�?}Eb� M) ��c �i tii |�@| ��P�\ ' ��P�P�� �hi4�*|�T*)�?} Eb� M) �c L?i ?_t |�@| >�

    i^�@*t 2�P�P�*E�P�� 5�Mt|�|�|�?} �? Eb� uLh >�c �i |�i? �@�iG

    E�P� E�P�3�P�P�� ' �\ Ef�Lhc �? |ih4t Lu ^G

    EP�PE�P�3�P��^� ��P�^� ' ^�\ E���ihi � W� E�P�3�P� �hi4�*|�T*)�?} E� M) ��Dc �i tii uhL4 |�i @ML�i i Thit�t�L? |�@| ��D^ �@t UL*�4?t ThLTLh|�L?@* |L i�}i?�iU|Lht Lu |�i hi@* ?L??i}@|��i _i?�|i

    t)44i|h�U 4@|h� ��D�P��Dc @?_ �i?Ui ^�^� �t _�@}L?@*� Nt�?} ^ ' ���Pc �i tii|�@| ��P�P� �t @*tL _�@}L?@*c @?_ �i?Uic �t�?} ��P�\ ' ��P�P�c �i ?L|i |�@|

    ��P� �t |�i �_i?|�|) 4@|h� c @?_ �i |��t !?L� |�@| ��P�P� ' \� AL 4@ �4�3i |�i

    |h@Ui Lu ��P�P� �i ti*iU| |�i � i�}i?�iU|Lht ��|� |�i ��}�it| i�}i?�@*�it�

    A��t UL?|h@U| _it�}? i^�@|�L?c E�c �t |�i t@4i @t |�@| �? A�iLhi4 H Lu �|�@?@tL�*�t

    @?_ 5��**ih E2fff� ��|� |�i K 4@|h� �? |�iLhi4 H i^�@* |L |�i �_i?|�|)� A��tc @t �i

    ?L|i_ �? |�i �?|hL_�U|�L?c |�i TLL*�?}�`W�t @hi |�i LT|�4@* Thi4��4�`W�t UL?_�|�L?i_

    L? |�ihi @*hi@_) Mi�?} @ 4@h!i| uLh |�i �Lh*_ TLh|uL*�L� A�i) ��** �@�i @ 3ihL Thi4��4

    t�?Ui |�i) hiThiti?| L?*) ?L?t)t|i4@|�U h�t!�

    A�i 4@|h�Uit � @?_ ^ @hi hi*@|i_ M) @ UL�T*i Lu i Thitt�L?t� A�i 4@|h� � i^�@*t

    ��^�\3� AL tii |��tc ?L|i |�@| i Thitt�L? E� �t �P� ' �\c @?_ �ti |�i u@U||�@| P� ' ^�� Oi?Uic t�?Ui �t �_i4TL|i?|c � ' �� wi| �t _i?i @ a � a 4@|h� � i^�@* |L W �

    �*a � A��t �t |�i 4@|h� t�U� |�@|c uLh @?) �iU|Lh 3c �3 �t |�i �iU|Lh3 ��ihi |�i 4i@?t �@�i Mii? t�M|h@U|i_c ��i�c �3 �t _i4i@?i_ 3� �L|i |�@| � �t ML|�

    �_i4TL|i?| @?_ t)44i|h�Uc ��|� h@?! a � � �L|i @*tL |�@| � ' � @?_ � ' �W| uL**L�t |�@|c �u � ' W @t �? |�i i4T�h�U@* �Lh! Mi*L�c ^� ' ���\c ���U� 4i@?t |�@|UL*�4?t Lu ^� @hi |�i t@4i @t UL*�4?t Lu �c i UiT| |�@| |�i) @hi _i4i@?i_ @?_ hitU@*i_

    M) 4�*|�T*)�?} M) 4�?�t |�i ULhhitTL?_�?} i�}i?�@*�i� AL tii |�@| ^� ' ���\ �? |��t

    H

  • U@tic ?L|i |�@| t�?Uic ��i? � ' Wc � ' �^�\c �� ' ��^�\3( t�?Ui � ' �c�� ' ��^�\3� Nt�?} |�i u@U| |�@| �^� ' ^�c |�i hit�*| uL**L�t� �L|i @*tL |�@|^ ' ^� ' ^� �iU@�ti Lu |�iti hi*@|�L?tc �i U@? �h�|i |�i �?UL4i UL4TL?i?| tiU�h�|)

    �iU|Lht �? ti�ih@* _�gihi?| �@)tG # ' j� ' Ej�� ' Ej����

    W n �^ �t |�i a � a 4@|h� ��Lti ��|� i*i4i?| �t |�i i TLt�hic @u|ih �i_}�?}c LuUL�?|h) � |L UL�?|h) �

  • �P '

    57 �S. ��S.��S. �S.

    68 � E��

    ���U� �@t L?i ?L?3ihL i�}i?�@*�i i^�@* |L ���� A�i �iU|Lh �c _ih��i_ @t t�L�? @ML�i

    �t�?} |�i i�}i?�iU|Lh ULhhitTL?_�?} |L |�i *@h}it| i�}i?�@*�i �t }��i? M) i Thitt�L? Ee�G

    � ' �H2

    57 �2

    68 � Ee�

    A��tc |�i TLL*�?}�`W� 4@) Mi _itUh�Mi_ @t ��t| @ t�Lh| TLt�|�L? �? |�i ht| UL�?|h)

    @?_ _L�M*i @? LTTLt�|i *L?} TLt�|�L? �? |�i L|�ih UL�?|h)� A��t UL?|h@U| �tc @t �i 4�}�|

    i TiU|c @ t�@T Mi|�ii? |�i |�L UL�?|h�it M�| �| �t ?L| @ L?i�uLh�L?i t�@T� A��t LUU�ht

    MiU@�ti �i @hi UL?t|h@�?�?} |�i UL�?|h�it |L |h@_i h�t! |�@| �@t @ 3ihL Thi4��4� W?

    UL?|h@t| |�i Thi4��4�`W�c �|�@?@tL�*�t @?_ 5��**ih E2ff�c �@t i^�@* @?_ LTTLt�|i

    TLt�|�L?t �? |�i |�L UL�?|h�it� ��| |�i 4@h!i| �L�*_ ?L| U*i@h ��|�L�| T@)4i?| Lu @

    Thi4��4 t�?Ui |�i ht| UL�?|h) �L�*_ �@?| |L }i| h�_ Lu 4Lhi Lu �|t L�? h�t! |�@? |�i

    tiUL?_ UL�?|h) �L�*_ Mi ��**�?} |L |@!i L?� A��t |�i TLL*�?}�`W� �i�}�|t |�i tiUL?_

    UL�?|h) 4Lhi |�@? |�i ht| UL�?|h)� A�i �iU|Lh ^ �t }��i? M) i Thitt�L? ED�G

    ^ ' �H2k �

    l� ED�

    A�i ht| UL�?|h) �t *L?} �? |�i TLL*�?}�`W� @?_ |�i tiUL?_ UL�?|h) �t t�Lh| |�i TLL*�?}�

    `W��

    W| �t �?t|h�U|��i |L *LL! @| |�i 4@|h� Wn�^ ��Lti �|� UL*�4? }��it |�i i TLt�hi Lu

    UL�?|h) � |L h�t!t �? i@U� Lu |�i |�L UL�?|h�it @u|ih �i_}�?} �? |�i L?i 4@h!i|c i Thitt�L?

    ES��

    Wn�^ '

    57 �S. ����S. ���

    68 � ES�

    A��t �i �@�i |�@| |�i ht| UL�?|h) �t i TLti_ |L 2�Lu |�i h�t! Lu i@U� UL�?|h) @?_ |�i

    tiUL?_ UL�?|h) �t i TLti_ |L �Lu |�i h�t! �? i@U� UL�?|h)� A��t �t @t �i �L�*_ i TiU|

    �ihi� A�i |�L UL�?|h�it U@? hi_�Ui @** Lu |�i�h ?L?t)t|i4@|�U h�t! @?_ |��t |�i ht|

    UL�?|h) �t |��Ui @t *@h}i @t |�i tiUL?_ @?_ �t i TLti_ |L 2�Lu �Lh*_ h�t! ���*i |�i tiUL?_

    UL�?|h) �t i TLti_ |L �Lu �Lh*_ h�t!�

    , @4T*i 2

    f

  • W? |��t i @4T*i �i t|�_) |�i U@ti ��ihi |�ihi @hi uL�h UL�?|h�itc @?_ |�@| |�i ht|

    |�L UL�?|h�it @hi ��}�*) ULhhi*@|i_ ��|� i@U� L|�ihc M�| �?ULhhi*@|i_ ��|� |�i tiUL?_

    |�L UL�?|h�it� LhiL�ihc |�i tiUL?_ |�L UL�?|h�it @hi ��}�*) ULhhi*@|i_ ��|� i@U� L|�ih

    @?_ @** uL�h UL�?|h�it �@�i |�i t@4i �@h�@?Ui� ��h P 4@|h� �t }��i? M) i Thitt�L? E.�

    Mi*L�G

    P '

    5999997

    �f f�b f f

    f�b �f f f

    f f �f f�b

    f f f�b �f

    6:::::8� E.�

    A�i?c �P �@t |�i uLh4 }��i? M) i Thitt�L? EH� Mi*L�G

    �P '

    5999997

    �D2D �e2D ��e.D ��e.D�e2D �D2D ��e.D ��e.D

    ��e.D ��e.D �D2D �e2D��e.D ��e.D �e2D �D2D

    6:::::8

    EH�

    ���U� �@t L?i i�}i?�@*�i i^�@* |L �b @?_ |�L i�}i?�@*�it ML|� i^�@* |L f�� A�i �iU|Lh

    �c _ih��i_ @t t�L�? @ML�i �t�?} |�i i�}i?�iU|Lh ULhhitTL?_�?} |L |�i *@h}it| i�}i?�@*�i

    �t }��i? M) i Thitt�L? Eb�G

    � ' ��S

    5999997

    ��

    6:::::8� Eb�

    A��tc i UiT| uLh tU@*�?}c |�i UL4TL?i?| 4@) Mi _itUh�Mi_ @t ��t| @ t�Lh| TLt�|�L? �?

    |�i ht| |�L UL�?|h�it @?_ @? i^�@* @?_ LTTLt�|i *L?} TLt�|�L? �? |�i L|�ih |�L� A��t

    UL?|h@U| �tc @t �i 4�}�| i TiU|c @ t�@T Mi|�ii? |�i |�L M*LU!t Lu UL�?|h�it� A��t

    UL4TL?i?| �t ^��|i _�gihi?| uhL4 |�i ht| Th�?U�T@* UL4TL?i?| Lu P� A�@| 4@|h� �@t

    |�L ht| Th�?U�T@* UL4TL?i?|tc ML|� ��|� |�i t@4i i�}i?�@*�i� A�iti UL4TL?i?|t @hi

    ThLTLh|�L?@* |L |�i �iU|Lht d f fo� @?_ df f o�( �u �i Uhi@|i_ @ 4@h!i| �? i�|�ih Lu

    |�itic |�i? �i �L�*_ ?L| ThL��_i @?) 4i@?t uLh |�i |�L }hL�Tt Lu UL�?|h�it |L t�@T

    |�i�h h�t!t� A�i �iU|Lh ^ �t }��i? M) i Thitt�L? E2f�G

    ^ ' �Sbk � �

    l� E2f�

    A�i ht| |�L UL�?|h�it @hi t�Lh| |�i UL4TL?i?|c |�i tiUL?_ |�L @hi *L?} |�i UL4TL?i?|�

  • Wu �i �ihi |L Uhi@|i |�i ?i | |�L 4@h!i|tc |�i? i@U� Lu |�iti 4@h!i|t �L�*_ i?|@�*

    @ t�@T Mi|�ii? |�i T@�ht Lu UL�?|h�it ��|��? L?i M*LU!� A�i h�t! hi_�U|�L? @gLh_i_ M)

    t�U� t�@Tt �t 4�U� t4@**ih MiU@�ti |�i UL�?|h�it @hi tL ��}�*) ULhhi*@|i_ ��|��? i@U�

    T@�h�

    A�i 4@|h� Wn�^ ��Lti �|� UL*�4? }��it |�i i TLt�hi Lu UL�?|h) � |L h�t!t �? i@U�

    Lu |�i uL�h UL�?|h�it @u|ih �i_}�?} �? |�i L?i 4@h!i| �t @t uL**L�tG

    Wn�^ '

    5999997

    �.D ��2D �2D �2D��2D �.D �2D �2D�2D �2D �.D ��2D�2D �2D ��2D �.D

    6:::::8� E2�

    �L| @** i*i4i?|t Lu |��t 4@|h� i^�@* �2Dc @t �L�*_ Mi |�i U@ti �u �i �@_ �?U*�_i_

    @** |�hii TLtt�M*i 4@h!i|t @?_ |�ihiM) tT@??i_ |�i �Lh*_ h�t! t�@h�?} LTTLh|�?�|�itc

    hit�*|�?} �? i@U� UL�?|h)

  • 2�2 ì*u@hi �i?i|t

    ì ?L|ic ?@**)c |�@| ��|� |�i T�hi �@h�@?Ui hi_�U|�L? 4i|�L_ |�ihi �t @ UL?�i?�i?| �@)

    Lu 4i@t�h�?} |�i �4TLh|@?Ui Lu i@U� 4@h!i|� ì U@? hi}hitt |�i �|� UL�?|h)

  • 5L4i ULhhi*@|�L?t @hi it|�4@|i_ |L Mi ?i}@|��iG W?_�@ @?_ a@T@? �@TTi? |L t�L� *@h}i

    ?i}@|��i ULhhi*@|�L? L�ih |��t Tih�L_� �iU@�ti |�ihi �t ?L| 4�U� �?uLh4@|�L? @ML�|

    ULhhi*@|�L?t �? |�iti _@|@c ���U� @hi _L4�?@|i_ M) *L��uhi^�i?U) 4L�i4i?|t @?_ uLh

    ���U� �i �@�i ?L tiU�hi 4L_i*c �i U@??L| @||@U� 4�U� UL?_i?Ui |�@| ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it

    �? |�iti UL�?|h�it hi@**) |i?_ |L 4L�i LTTLt�|i i@U� L|�ih�

    6Lh L�h @?@*)t�tc �i 4�t| UL?�ih| |�iti �4Thitt�L?t �?|L it|�4@|it Lu |�i 4@|h�Uit

    P� ,t|�4@|�?} |�i �@h�@?Ui 4@|h�Uit �t ?L| @ |h���@* 4@||ih( |�iti @hi t�TTLti_ |L hi�iU|

    |�i UL?_�|�L?@* �@h�@?Ui @| |�i |�4i Lu |�i UL?|h@U| uLh _�t|@?| u�|�hi ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it�

    AL it|�4@|i t�U� @ �@h�@?Ui 4@|h� c �i ?ii_ ht| |L uLh4 tL4i hiThiti?|@|�L? Lu |�i

    UL?_�|�L?@* i TiU|i_ �@*�i i@U� )i@h uLh @** u�|�hi ?@|�L?@* �?UL4itc @ ThLM*i4 |�@| |�i

    �Lh*_

  • �@h�@?Ui 4@|h� 4L_i* @}@�?t| }i?ih@* @*|ih?@|��it( i�i? �u |�i 4L_i* �ihi hi�iU|i_ |�i

    it|�4@|i_ P 4@) )i| Mi �tiu�* uLh L�h T�hTLtit�

    ��h |�L 4i|�L_t Lu it|�4@|�?} P _�gih �? ��@| |�i) @tt�4i @ML�| |�i hiThiti?�

    |@|��i?itt Lu T@t| ��t|Lh�U@* 4L�i4i?|t uLh |�i u�|�hi� ��h i|�L_ �c ���U� �?�L*�it

    it|�4@|�?} t�4T*i �?UL?t|h@�?i_ �@h�@?Ui 4@|h�Uit uhL4 ��t|Lh�U@* _@|@c 4@!it ?L @t�

    t�4T|�L?t @ML�| t�4�*@h�|�it Lu Lh iUL?L4�U _�t|@?Uit Mi|�ii? UL�?|h�it� A��t 4i|�L_c

    t�?Ui �| hi^��hit @ *L| Lu _@|@c �t �ti_ L?*) uLh @ h@|�ih *L� A c i^�@* |L |i? )i@ht( i�i?

    ��|� |��t *L� A c �i _L ?L| i TiU| |L }i| @UU�h@|i it|�4@|it Lu �@h�@?Uit�. ��h i|�L_

    �c ���U� �?�L*�it it|�4@|�?} UL?t|h@�?i_ �@h�@?Ui 4@|h�Uitc �4TLtit tL4i t|hL?} Th�Lht

    @?_ |�ihiM) t@�it _i}hiit Lu uhii_L4 tL |�@| �i �@�i Mi||ih ThLtTiU|t Lu it|�4@|�?}

    �@h�@?Ui 4@|h�Uit ��|� ��}� A ( ��|� i|�L_ � �i �ti A i^�@* |L uLh|) )i@ht� �i�|�ih

    4i|�L_ 4@!it �ti Lu |�4i tih�it 4L_i*t |L �?uih UL?_�|�L?@* 4L4i?|t( ML|� @hi M@ti_ L?

    |�i @tt�4T|�L? |�@| UL?_�|�L?@* �@h�@?Uit Lu *L?}��Lh�3L? U�@?}it �? �?UL4i @hi Mit| it�

    |�4@|i_ _�hiU|*) @t 4L4i?|t Lu *L?}��Lh�3L? U�@?}it |�i4ti*�it� ��h 4L|��@|�L? �t |�i

    ?L|�L?c M@ti_ L? L�h hi@_�?} Lu L|�ih

  • ��2 i|�L_ �

    `�|� L�h tiUL?_ 4i|�L_ Lu it|�4@|�?} Pc �i �4TLti Th�Lh hit|h�U|�L?t |�@| @** UL�?|h�it

    �@�i |�i t@4i 4i@? @?_ �@h�@?Ui Lu TihUi?|@}i U�@?}it �? hi@* Tih U@T�|@ �?UL4ic @?_

    |�@| UL�@h�@?Uit @hi _i|ih4�?i_ tL*i*) M) |�i }iL}h@T��U _�t|@?Uit Mi|�ii? UL�?|h�it�H

    A�i 4L|��@|�L? uLh hi^��h�?} |�@| @** UL�?|h�it �@�i |�i t@4i 4i@? @?_ �@h�@?Ui Lu

    TihUi?|@}i U�@?}it Lu hi@* Tih U@T�|@ �?UL4i �t tL4i t!iT|�U�t4 |�@| |�i T@t| i �}i?U�it

    |�@| u@Ui_ T@h|�U�*@h UL�?|h�it _�h�?} bDf�bbf U@? hi@**) Mi i TiU|i_ |L hiTi@| �?

    |�Lti t@4i UL�?|h�it �? |�i u�|�hi� ��h _@|@ t�L� |�@| a@T@? �@t �@_ 4�U� ��}�ih

    }hL�|� h@|it |�@? 4Lt| Lu |�i L|�ih UL�?|h�it� #L �i hi@**) �@�i hi@tL? |L i TiU| |�@|

    }hL�|� h@|it ��** Mi t�4�*@h*) ��}�ih �? |�i u�|�hi �? a@T@?q ��h |@M*i t�}}it|t |�@|

    a@T@? @?_ �h@3�* @hi h�t!) UL�?|h�it� #L �i hi@**) �@�i @?) hi@tL? |L |��?! |�@| |�iti

    UL�?|h�it ��** Mi |�i L?it u@U�?} |�i }hi@|it| h�t!t �? |�i u�|�hiq �ih�@Tt |�i) @hi ��t|

    M�gi|i_ M) tL4i 4@�Lh Uh�tit �? |��t t@4T*ic Uh�tit |�i *�!it Lu ���U� 4@) ��t| @t �i**

    t|h�!i L|�ih UL�?|h�it �? |�i u�|�hi� A�i 4L|��@|�L? uLh hi^��h�?} |�@| |�i ULhhi*@|�L?

    @UhLtt UL�?|h�it �? TihUi?| U�@?}it �? hi@* Tih U@T�|@ �?UL4i _iTi?_t L?*) L? |�i _�t|@?Ui

    Mi|�ii? |�i UL�?|h�it �t 4�U� |�i t@4ic �i _L ?L| hi@**) @||@U� 4�U� Uhi_i?Ui |L |�i

    t�}}it|�L? Lu t�4T*i �@h�@?Ui 4@|h�Uit UL4T�|i_ M) i|�L_ � |�@| W?_�@ @?_ a@T@?

    t�L�*_ Mi i TiU|i_ |L Mi ?i}@|��i*) ULhhi*@|i_ �? |�i u�|�hi�

    ��h Th�Lh @tt�4T|�L?t uLh i|�L_ � @ML�| |�i �@h�@?Ui 4@|h� V Lu A�)i@h Tih�

    Ui?|@}i U�@?}it �? hi@* Tih U@T�|@ ?@|�L?@* �?UL4it @hi hiThiti?|i_ M) |�i uLh4�*@G

    *?EV��� ' @� K_�� K � f E22���ihi _�� �t |�i _�t|@?Ui Mi|�ii? UL�?|h�it � @?_ �c 4i@t�hi_ @t @�h 4�*it Mi|�ii? |�i

    4@�Lh U�|�it �? |�i hitTiU|��i UL�?|h�it� ì �ti_ |�i @�h 4�*i _�t|@?Uit Mi|�ii? |�i

    4@�Lh U�|�it L?|hi@*c i �UL ��|)c �i� vLh!c +�L _i a@?i�hLc �@*U�||@c AL!)Lc �@h�tc

    �ih*�?c +L4ic wL?_L?c 5�@?}�@� @?_ LtUL�� 5�?Ui K �t TLt�|��ic |�i u�h|�ih @�@) |�i

    4@�Lh U�|)c |�i *itt �t |�i UL�@h�@?Ui ��|� �|t UL�?|h)� A��t uLh4�*@ ULhhitTL?_t |L @ �@*�_

    E��i�c |�i �@h�@?Ui 4@|h� �t ?L??i}@|��i _i?�|i uLh @?) T*@Ui4i?| Lu U�|�it� �tL|hLT�U

    E��i�c |�i 4L_i* �t �?�@h�@?| |L hL|@|�L?t Lu |�i ULLh_�?@|i t)t|i4� tT@|�@* 4L_i* ��ihi

    |�i U�|�it *�i �? +2c tii �hitt�i Ebbc T� HS�� A�i uLh4�*@ @*tL ULhhitTL?_t |L @ �@*�_

    �tL|hLT�U tT@|�@* 4L_i* ��ihi |�i U�|�it *�i L? |�i t�hu@Ui Lu @ tT�ihi @?_ _�t|@?Uit @hi

    4i@t�hi_ @*L?} }hi@| U�hU*itc @t �? L�h @TT*�U@|�L? |L |�i i@h|�� LhiL�ihc |�i �@h�@?Ui

    4@|h� �t t|h�U|*) TLt�|��i _i?�|i �?*itt |�L U�|�it UL�?U�_i�

    ;D vlplodu phwkrg lv xvhg lq Dwkdqdvrxolv dqg Vkloohu +5334,1

    S

  • A��t uLh4�*@|�L? hit|h�U|t @** UL�@h�@?Uit |L Mi TLt�|��i� A�i Th�Lh hit|h�U|�L? |�@| @**

    UL�@h�@?Uit @hi TLt�|��i 4@) tii4 t|hL?}c M�| �| �t 4@�?|@�?i_ �ihi @t @ tLh| Lu UL44L?

    ti?ti Th�Lh ?L|�L? |�@| |�ihi �t hi@**) ?L hi@tL? �? }i?ih@* uLh @?) T@�ht Lu UL�?|h�it |L

    |i?_ |L 4L�i LTTLt�|i i@U� L|�ih� A��t hit|h�U|�L? 4@) tih�i |L hi_�Ui |�i TLtt�M�*�|�it

    uLh _��iht�U@|�L?c M) i*�4�?@|�?} |�i ?i}@|��i ULhhi*@|�L?t |�@| _��iht�iht tii!�

    ��h @tt�4T|�L? |�@| |�i �@h�@?Ui Lu |�i TihUi?|@}i U�@?}i �? �?UL4it �t |�i t@4i

    �? @** UL�?|h�it hi�iU|t @? �?_ih*)�?} @tt�4T|�L? |�@| TiLT*i ��|��? UL�?|h�it t�@hi @

    UL�?|h) h�t! UL44L? |L |�i4 @**c tL |�@| ?@|�L?@* MLh_iht �@�i tL4i iUL?L4�U t�}?�u�

    �U@?Uic @?_ @hi ?L| ��t| h@?_L4 U*Lti_ U�h�it L? @ 4@T� Wu ?@|�L?@* MLh_iht �@_ ?L

    iUL?L4�U t�}?�U@?Uic |�i? �i 4�}�| i TiU| |�@| *@h}ih UL�?|h�it �L�*_ �@�i t4@**ih

    �@h�@?Uit Lu TihUi?|@}i U�@?}itc t�?Ui |�ihi �L�*_ Mi 4Lhi LTTLh|�?�|) uLh }iL}h@T���

    U@* _��iht�U@|�L? ��|��? |�i *@h}ih UL�?|h�it� A��t @tt�4T|�L? Lu UL?t|@?| TihUi?|@}i

    U�@?}i �@h�@?Uit ��** Mi �4TLh|@?| |L tL4i Lu L�h hit�*|tc t�?Ui �| �4T*�it |�@| _�@}L?@*

    i*i4i?|t Lu P @hi hi*@|i_ |L %2f� h@|�ih |�@? |L %f�c ��ihi %f� �t �?�|�@* )i@h ?@|�L?@*

    �?UL4i uLh UL�?|h) ��

    ì UL4T�|i |�i UL?t|h@�?i_ 4@ �4�4 *�!i*��LL_ E4�*|��@h�@|i ?Lh4@*� �@h�@?Ui

    4@|h� V uLh |�i f UL�?|h�it Lu 5� 'SA

    �' }_Tbbf*E}_Tbbf3�E n 4���c � ' c � � � c f(

    |�ihi �t L?*) L?i LMtih�@|�L? Lu 5� uLh i@U� UL�?|h)c M�| |�ihi @hi L?*) |�hii �?!?L�?

    T@h@4i|ihtc @c K @?_ |�i 4i@? }hL�|� h@|ic @?_ |�i? �t�?} _�t|@?Ui _@|@ @?_ hi@*

    ?@|�L?@* �?UL4i _@|@ uLh ���?@ @?_ |�i �W5 E|�i *@||ih �?U*�_�?} |�i �@*|�U UL�?|h�itc

    tL |�@| �| ULhhitTL?_t |L |�i uLh4ih 5L��i| N?�L?�c �i UL?t|h�U| �t�?} E22� @ |�i*�i M)

    |�i*�i V 4@|h� uLh |�i |�i*�i UL�?|h�itc @?_ �t�?} |�i 5�44iht�Oit|L? _@|@ uLh hi@*

    B#� uLh @** UL�?|h�it �? bbfc �i UL?t|h�U| @ |�i*�i M) |�i*�i jf 4@|h� uLh @** |�i*�i

    UL�?|h�itc ��ihi %f� �t |�i �|� _�@}L?@* i*i4i?|� A�i? �i |@!i P ' jfVjf�

    �L|i |�@| |�i 4@ �4�4 *�!i*��LL_ 4i|�L_ ��** |i?_ |L ThL_�Ui _L�?�@h_*) M�@ti_

    it|�4@|it Lu �@h�@?Uic t�?Ui ��|� L?*) L?i LMtih�@|�L? uLh i@U� UL�?|h)c |�i it|�4@|i_

    4i@? ��** |i?_ |L T�U! �T |�i UL4TL?i?| Lu |�i �@h�@|�L? |�@| �t t�@hi_ M) @** UL�?|h�it(

    hiU@** |�@| �? |�i ��_ U@ti |�i 4@ �4�4 *�!i*��LL_ it|�4@|i Lu �@h�@?Ui �t |�i t�4 Lu

    t^�@hi_ hit�_�@*t _���_i_ M) � h@|�ih |�@? � � � A�i _L�?�@h_ M�@t ��** Mi 4Lhiti�ihi �ihi |�@? �? |�i ��_ U@tic t�?Ui L�h UL�?|h�it @hi TLt�|��i*) ULhhi*@|i_ ��|� i@U�

    L|�ih M) @tt�4T|�L?� 5|�**c |�i 4@ �4�4 *�!i*��LL_ it|�4@|i �t |�i TLt|ih�Lh 4L_i

    M@ti_ L? �?�?uLh4@|��i Th�Lhtc @?_ �i |��?! |�@| |��t UL?tih�@|��i it|�4@|i Lu �@h�@?Ui

    �t @UUiT|@M*i uLh L�h T�hTLtit�

    ��h 4i|�L_ @*tL hi^��hit �t |L tTiU�u) @ �i�}�|�?} 4@|h� � @?_ @ _�tUL�?| h@|i 4

    uLh L�h ThLM*i4 |�@| _i?it |�i UL?|h@U| �i�}�|tc |�@| @hi hiThiti?|i_ �? |�i 4@|h� ��

    .

  • ì U�LLti @ �i�}�| 4@|h� i^�@* |L |�i �_i?|�|)c � ' W� `�|� |��t U�L�Ui Lu |�i �i�}�|

    4@|h� �i @hi 4�?�4�3�?} |L|@* �@h�@?Ui� A��t �i�}�|�?} 4@|h� Thitih�it @ t�4T*i

    ULhhitTL?_i?Ui Mi|�ii? L�h 4i|�L_ @?_ Th�?U�T@* UL4TL?i?|t @?@*)t�t� ì U�LLti @

    _�tUL�?| h@|i Lu 4 ' 2I�

    e +it�*|t

    ì Thiti?| hit�*|t ��|� �'2c |�L 4@h!i|t @?_ |�i T@h@4i|ih �@*�it _itUh�Mi_ @ML�i

    |�L�}� �i @*tL Thiti?| hit�*|t L? |�i |L|@* TihUi?| �@h�@?Ui hi_�U|�L? @�@�*@M*i �u @**

    UL?|h@U|t �ihi UL?t|h�U|i_� W? |@M*i e |�i hit�*|t @hi Thiti?|i_ ht| uLh �@h�@?Ui 4@|h�

    it|�4@|�L? 4i|�L_ � E�?UL?t|h@�?i_� |i? UL�?|h�itc @?_ �? |@M*i D uLh �@h�@?Ui 4@|h�

    it|�4@|�L? 4i|�L_ � EUL?t|h@�?i_� @?_ |�i*�i UL�?|h�it�

    W? |@M*i 2 �i hiTLh| |�i bbf B#�t Lu UL�?|h�itc �? bHD _L**@htc @*L?} ��|� |�i�h

    �Lh*_ t�@hit Lu B#� @?_ |�i�h TLT�*@|�L?t� 6Lh L�h |i? UL�?|h) U@ti |�i |�L *@h}it|

    UL�?|h�it @hi |�i N5 @?_ a@T@?� W? |�i |�i*�i UL�?|h) U@ti |�i *@h}it| UL�?|h�it @hi |�i

    N5 @?_ ���?@ uL**L�i_ M) a@T@? @?_ |�i �W5� W| �L�*_ tii4 |�@| |�i *@h}it| UL�?|h�it

    t�L�*_ Mi |�i L?it |�@| _L4�?@|i |�i ht| |�L UL?|h@U|t |�L�}� @t �i ��** tii |��t �t

    ?L| ?iUitt@h�*) |�i U@ti� Wu |�i h�t!�?itt Lu i@U� UL�?|h)

  • ��|� ���?@ �t it|�4@|i_ @| f�e�c ��|� a@T@?c f�2Hc ��|� |�i N?�|i_ 5|@|itc f�fe�

    W? U�LLt�?} |�iti TLL*�?}�`W�t |L 4�?�4�3i �@h�@?Ui @UhLtt UL�?|h�itc �| �t ?L| |�i

    �@h�@?Ui Lu |�i Thiti?| �@*�it Lu �?UL4it |�@| @hi �4TLh|@?| M�| h@|�ih |�i �@h�@?Ui

    Lu |�i hit�_�@* Lu |�i Thiti?| �@*�i Lu UL�?|h) �?UL4it hi}hitti_ L? Thiti?| �@*�i Lu

    �Lh*_ �?UL4i� W| �t ?L?t)t|i4@|�U h�t! |�@| 4@||iht� AL }i| @? �_i@ Lu |�i @4L�?|

    Lu �@h�@?Ui ���U� �t ?L?t)t|i4@|�U �? |�i Thiti?| �@*�i Lu UL�?|h) �?UL4itc �i hiTLh|

    tL4i Lu |�iti ?�4Miht �? |@M*i � uLh ML|� |�i �?UL?t|h@�?i_ U@ti @?_ |�i UL?t|h@�?i_

    U@ti� 6Lh |�i |i? UL�?|h) U@ti �i tii |�@| �? |ih4t Lu �@h�@?Uic a@T@? �t |�i *@h}it|

    UL�?|h) i�i? |�L�}� �| �@t ?L| |�i *@h}it| �? |ih4t Lu bbf B#�� A�i N5 �t |�i tiUL?_

    *@h}it| �? |ih4t Lu �@h�@?Ui� ,�i? |�L�}� |��t �t |�i U@tic L?*) fI Lu a@T@?

  • tiUL?_ 4@h!i| 4�}�| Mi _itUh�Mi_ �? t�4T*i |ih4t @t @ t�@T Mi|�ii? |�i ,�hLTi@?

    UL44�?�|) @?_ �W5 L? L?i t�_ic @?_ ���?@c a@T@? @?_ |�i N5 L? |�i L|�ih� �L|i |�@|

    �? |�iti UL?|h@U|t @t �i** @t |�i L?it uLh |@M*i ec �| �t |�i *@h}it| UL�?|h�it �? |ih4t Lu

    ?L?t)t|i4@|�U �@h�@?Ui ���U� _L4�?@|i |�i UL?|h@U|t t�?Ui |�i UL?|h@U|t @hi U�Lti? |L

    4�?�4�3i |L|@* �@h�@?Ui� W| �t |�i t�3i @?_ |�i ULhhi*@|�L? ULi�U�i?| Lu ?L?t)t|i4@|�U

    �?UL4i h�t! ���U� 4@||ih uLh UL?|h@U| _it�}?�

    AL �i*T �?_iht|@?_ |�i i T*@�?i_ t�4 Lu t^�@hit L�ih |L|@* t�4 Lu t^�@hitc UL?t�_ih

    |�i ht| 4@h!i| Lu A@M*i e� A�i i T*@�?i_ t�4 Lu t^�@hit L�ih |L|@* t�4 Lu t^�@hit

    �t e.�e2I uLh |�i N?�|i_ 5|@|itc �?_�U@|�?} |�@| |��t L?i tiU�h�|) 4@!it �| TLtt�M*i uLh

    |�i N?�|i_ 5|@|it |L }i| h�_ Lu ?i@h*) �@*u Lu �|t �?Uih|@�?|) @ML�| �?UL4i @?_ i �@�t|t

    ?i@h*) @** Lu �|t hit�_�@* h�t!�t�@h�?} LTTLh|�?�|�itc tii |�i *@t| UL*�4? �? |@M*i e� W|

    Lgiht 4�U� *itt Mi?i| uLh a@T@? @t @ TihUi?| Lu �|t �@h�@?Ui� a@T@? _ih��it *itt Mi?i|

    t�?Ui �|t B#� �@h�@?Ui �t it|�4@|i_ |L Mi |�hii |�4it ��}�ih |�@? |�@| Lu |�i ?i | ��}�it|

    UL�?|h)c |�i N5c @?_ �|t �?UL4i �t t�Mt|@?|�@**) TLt�|��i*) ULhhi*@|i_ ��|� |�i N5( |�ihi

    �t �? itti?Ui ?L L?i ��L Mi?i|t uhL4 |@!�?} L? 4�U� Lu |�i a@T@?iti h�t!� a@T@?

    �@t itti?|�@**) i �@�t|i_ 4Lt| Lu �|t LTTLh|�?�|�it |L *@) Lg �?UL4i h�t!( ?L L?i i*ti

    �@t 4�U� h�t! |L t�@T hi*@|��i |L a@T@?

  • D �L?U*�t�L?

    ì Mi*�i�i |�@| �wW� tiU�h�|�it t�L�*_ Mi Uhi@|i_ |�@| tL4i��@| hiti4M*i |�i TLL*�?}�

    `W� UL?|h@U|t _i?i_ �? i�|�ih |@M*i e Lhc Thiuih@M*)c |@M*i D ���U� �@t it|�4@|i_ ��|�

    UL44L?�ti?ti Th�Lht� 5�?Ui �i �@�i @h}�i_ MiuLhi E2fff� |�@| |�ihi t�L�*_ Mi @ 4@h!i|

    uLh |�i �Lh*_ TLh|uL*�Lc �| uL**L�t uhL4 @ML�i |�@| |�i ?i | 4@h!i|t t�L�*_ TLL*�?}�`W�

    UL?|h@U|t� ì �@�i tii? |�@| �? |@M*i D |�i ht| TLL*�?}�`W� UL?|h@U| �t hL�}�*) @ t�@T

    Mi|�ii? |�i N5 L? L?i t�_i @?_ |�i hit| Lu |�i �Lh*_ L? |�i L|�ih� A�i tiUL?_ �t @ t�@T

    Mi|�ii? }hi@|ih�,�hLTi E�?U*�_�?} |�i �W5� L? |�i L?i t�_i @?_ |�i N5 @?_ 6@h ,@t|

    L? |�i L|�ih� A�i tTiU�U@|�L? Lu |�iti TLL*�?}�`W� UL?|h@U|t ?ii_t |L Mi i T*Lhi_

    u�h|�ih ��|� 4Lhi hiti@hU� L? it|�4@|�L? Lu �@h�@?Ui 4@|h�Uit�

    2

  • �L�?|h) #@|i O�}�it| #@|i wL�it|

    }hL�|� h@|i }hL�|� h@|i

    �@?@_@ bS��.� Df�DI bD�S �DI

    i �UL b.�H D��DI bHf�bf ���HI

    N5� bDH�SH �D�HI b.��H� S��I

    �h@3�* bSS�.S bH�.I bHf�bf �S�I

    W?_�@ b.b�Hb e.�SI bSe�.e �b�.I

    a@T@? bDb�Sb D��HI b.��H� 2.�fI

    6h@?Ui bDb�Sb Db�DI b.e�He e�DI

    Bih4@?) bDf�Sf b2�fI b.��H� D�bI

    W|@*) bDH�SH .f�SI bHf�bf 2�fI

    Nk bS��.� ���fI b.��H� f�SI

    A@M*i G O�}�it| @?_ wL�it| |i?�)i@h }hL�|� h@|it Lu hi@* Tih U@T�|@ B#� uLh UL�?|h�it

    ��|� _@|@ uLh @** )i@ht �? |�i t@4T*i Tih�L_�

    �L�?|h) bbf B#� L̀h*_ �LT�*@|�L?

    �? bHD _L**@ht 5�@hi

    �f �? I �f.�@?@_@ e�D. 2�H� 2�S2

    i �UL e�DD 2�H2 H�eS

    N5� eD�H 2H��H 2e�b

    �h@3�* D�.S ��D. e�.

    W?_�@ H�Hb D�D H���

    a@T@? H�� ��2 2��

    6h@?Ui .�H� e�HD D�S2

    Bih4@?) H�b2 D�D� S�D

    W|@*) .�2� e�eH D�.D

    Nk .�eH e�Se D�.2

    ���?@ 2S�� S��� �

    �W5 D�. b�.� 2H�H

    5�4 S ff �2

    A@M*i 2G B#�c �Lh*_ t�@hi �? L�|T�| @?_ TLT�*@|�L?t �? bbf�

    22

  • �L�?|h) N?UL?t|� I ?L?t)t� N?UL?t|� �L?t|� I ?L?t)t� �L?t|�

    V@h� V@h� ?L?t)t� V@h� V@h� V@h� ?L?t)t� V@h�

    �f22 �f22 �f2D �f2D�@?@_@ .�S HH�f2 S��f ��D DS�ee �bH

    i �UL .�2D SH�H e�be ��eH HS�H ��f2

    N5� �.b eb�HS Hb �D2 Df�.2 .b

    �h@3�* Se�b b��eD Sf�. D�D. bS�fe D��D

    W?_�@ 2S�D SD��2 .�� ��� He� �2

    a@T@? bH. f�f bH�H DS� .e�2 e�S

    6h@?Ui �e�� S�f 2�fS f�� SD��. S�.�

    Bih4@?) He�2 SH�ef D.�S ��e Se�2b H�S

    W|@*) 2b�2 2.�ee H�f H�.H .�fD S�2e

    Nk e��2 .��bb ��2f b�e Se�be S�

    ���?@ . Sb��2 H�

    �W5 e�e S.�S� 2H�f

    A@M*i �G V@h�@?Ui Lu |�i Thiti?| �@*�i Lu B#�

  • �L�?|h) �� ^� ,55%A55 ��2 ^2� ,55%A55 ,55%A55

    �i�}�|t TLt�|�L?t Mi?i| �i�}�|t TLt�|�L?t Mi?i| |L|@* Mi?�|

    �f3f �fb I Lu j2 �f3f �fH I Lu j2 I Lu j2�@?@_@ f�H2 �f�2f DD�ff e�f ��fb S�De HH�f2

    i �UL f�22 �f�fe 2�Sf ��b. ��fe e�.H SH�H

    N5� D�2S ���e e.�e2 �fS 2�.S 2�f eb�HS

    �h@3�* f�fD �f�ff f�ff H�SH �.�H .b�D b��eD

    W?_�@ �f�.D f�2 D�bb ��f f�2 f�. SD��2

    a@T@? ��bH f�D2 2�.D ���fD H�2 S�SH f�f

    6h@?Ui �f��f f�fb 2�2. ��D f�f� f�ff S�f

    Bih4@?) �2�2b f�Sf e2�bf e�ef ��Sf ��fS SH�ef

    W|@*) �f�H2 f�22 S�HD 2�bf f��S f�ee 2.�ee

    Nk f�2S �f�fD S�H ��Sf �f�DS .�2D .��bb

    A@M*i eG N?UL?t|h@�?i_ �@h�@?Ui 4@|h� c |i? UL�?|h�itc f�)i@h UL?|h@U|t

    Qrwhv = Zhljkwv Dmq/ q @ 4> 5/ lv iudfwlrq ri frxqwu| m ghwuhqghg JGS sdlg dv sduw ri glylghqg

    rq rqh vhfxulw| q> srvlwlrq tqm/ q @ 4> 5/ lv wrwdo qxpehu ri vhfxulwlhv q wkh wkhru| suhglfwv zloo

    eh rzqhg lq frxqwu| m> HVV2WVV lv h{sodlqhg vxp ri vtxduhv ryhu wrwdo vxp ri vtxduhv1 Wkh odvw

    froxpq lv wkh wrwdo HVV2WVV li doo qlqh frqwudfwv zhuh frqvwuxfwhg1 Vrxufh= Fdofxodwlrqv e| dxwkruv

    xvlqj gdwd 4

  • �L�?|h) �� ^� ,55%A55 ��2 ^2� ,55%A55 ,55%A55

    �i�}�|t TLt�|�L?t Mi?i| �i�}�|t TLt�|�L?t Mi?i| |L|@* Mi?�|

    �f3 �ff I Lu j2 �f3 �ff I Lu j2 I Lu j2�@?@_@ �f�2e �f��D �e�� f�Df f�fS f�be DS�ee

    i �UL �f��2 �f�S .�2f f�De f�f� f�2D HS�H

    N5� ��H �e�2 eH�2f �f�Sf f�b 2��. Df�.2

    �h@3�* �f��H �f�fe f�2b f�SD �f�fS f�S bS�fe

    W?_�@ �f�DS f��b �Se f�D� f�fe f�f He�

    a@T@? �f�bf �H 2e�.e �f�S� f�be D�S .e�2

    6h@?Ui �f�ee f�2 ��f ��D �f�Sf �e�bf SD��.

    Bih4@?) �f�eH f�b 2�.S �D �f�.� �b�bH Se�2b

    W|@*) �f�eD f�e 2�2f �2. �f�De �2�H .�fD

    Nk �f�e� f�f f�b. �2b �f�DS �2�Hb Se�be

    ���?@ ��2H 2�fS �S�D ��S. �.D 2S�� Sb��2

    �W5 �f�Sf f�eb D�.2 2�S ��2e �S�b� S.�S�

    A@M*i DG �L?t|h@�?i_ �@h�@?Ui 4@|h� c |�i*�i UL�?|h�itc ef�)i@h UL?|h@U|t

    Qrwhv = Zhljkwv Dmq/ q @ 4> 5/ lv iudfwlrq ri frxqwu| m ghwuhqghg JGS sdlg dv sduw ri glylghqg

    rq rqh vhfxulw| q> srvlwlrq tqm/ q @ 4> 5/ lv wrwdo qxpehu ri vhfxulwlhv q wkh wkhru| suhglfwv zloo eh

    rzqhg lq frxqwu| m> HVV2WVV lv h{sodlqhg vxp ri vtxduhv ryhu wrwdo vxp ri vtxduhv1 Wkh odvw froxpq

    lv wkh wrwdo HVV2WVV li doo hohyhq frqwudfwv zhuh frqvwuxfwhg1 Vrxufh= Fdofxodwlrqv e| dxwkruv xvlqj

    gdwd 4

  • +iuihi?Uit

    �|�@?@tL�*�tc 5|iu@?Lc R,tt@)t �? +�t! 5�@h�?}c #ih��@|��it #it�}?c @?_ @UhLiUL�

    ?L4�U �L*�U)c� �?T�M*�t�i_ ���# _�ttih|@|�L?c v@*i N?��iht�|)c bbD�

    �|�@?@tL�*�tc 5|iu@?Lc @?_ +LMih| a� 5��**ihc RA�i 5�}?�U@?Ui Lu |�i @h!i| �Lh|uL�

    *�Lc� +i��i� Lu 6�?@?U�@* 5|�_�itc �E2�G�f�2bc 2fff�

    �|�@?@tL�*�tc 5|iu@?Lc @?_ +LMih| a� 5��**ihc R L̀h*_ W?UL4i �L4TL?i?|tG i@t�h�?}

    @?_ , T*L�|�?} +�t!�5�@h�?} �TTLh|�?�|�itc��4ih�U@? ,UL?L4�U +i��i�c 5iT|i4�

    Mihc 2ff�

    �|�@?@tL�*�tc 5|iu@?Lc @?_ ,h�U �@? `�?ULLTc RBhL�|� N?Uih|@�?|) @?_ +�t!t�@h�?}c�

    aL�h?@* Lu L?i|@h) ,UL?L4�Utc eDGe..�DfDc 2fff�

    �|�@?@tL�*�tc 5|iu@?Lc @?_ ,h�U �@? `�?ULLTc R+�t!t�@h�?} `�|��? N5 5|@|itG `�@|

    _L 6�?@?U�@* @h!i|t @?_ 6�tU@* 6i_ih@*�t4 �UUL4T*�t�c� +i��i� Lu ,UL?L4�Ut

    @?_ 5|@|�t|�Utc uLh|�UL4�?}c 2ff�

    �L*ic O@hL*_ w� @?_ @�h�Ui �Mt|ui*_c R�L44L_�|) |h@_i @?_ �?|ih?@|�L?@* h�t!t�@h�

    �?}G OL� 4�U� _L ?@?U�@* 4@h!i|t 4@||ihqc� aL�h?@* Lu L?i|@h) ,UL?L4�Utc

    2HG��2ec bb�

    �hitt�ic �Li*c 5|@|�t|�Ut uLh 5T@|�@* #@|@c `�*i)�W?|ihtU�i?Uic �i� vLh!c bb�

    ��?)c ��@h*it a�c RA�i +L*i Lu w�^��_�|) �? u�|�hit @h!i| W??L�@|�L?c� A�i +i��i�

    Lu 6�?@?U�@* 5|�_�itc SGD.�.Hc bb��

    #@��tc 5|i�i?c @?_ �@�* `�**i?c R�UU�T@|�L?�wi�i* W?UL4i 5�LU!t @?_ �tti| +i|�h?G

    A�i�h �L�@h�@?Ui @?_ W4T*�U@|�L? uLh �Lh|uL*�L ��L�Uic� ��,+ L̀h!�?} �@Tih

    �L� .bfDc 5iT|i4Mih 2fff�

    #i@?}ic B@Mh�i**ic @?_ B�) w@+L^�ic R�T|�4@*�|) Lu W?UL4T*i|i @h!i|tc� aL�h?@*

    Lu ,UL?L4�U A�iLh)c SDG2H��2c bbD

    #��ic #@hhi**c @?_ @||�i� �� a@U!tL?c R�T|�4@* W??L�@|�L? Lu 6�|�hit �L?|h@U|tc�

    +i��i� Lu 6�?@?U�@* 5|�_�itc 2G2.D�2bSc bHb�

    wi��tc k@hi? k�c R`�) #L 5|LU!t @?_ �L?t�4T|�L? W4T*) 5�U� #�gihi?| B@�?t

    uhL4 W?|ih?@|�L?@* +�t! 5�@h�?}qc� aL�h?@* Lu W?|ih?@|�L?@* ,UL?L4�Utc D2E�G�

    �Dc 2fff�

    2S

  • 5��**ihc +LMih| a�c@UhL @h!i|tG �hi@|�?} W?t|�|�|�L?t uLh @?@}�?} 5LU�i|)