Defeating the Asymmetric Threat Current Brief Updated: 25 Feb 02 USAF Counterproliferation Center (CPC) Informational Briefing Countering Weapons of Mass

Defeating the Asymmetric Threat

USAF Counterproliferation Center (CPC)

Informational Briefing

Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction through Education and Research

56-02-1409

State of the Union address29 Jan 02

“…States [Iraq] like these, and their terrorist allies,

constitute an axis of evil,…by seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing

danger.”

President Bush

Why Does the Center Exist?

CPC History

• Approved by Chief of Staff, USAF• Established Sep 1997 by Memorandum of Agreement

– HQ USAF/XONP National Security Policy Division USAF Nuclear & Counterproliferation Directorate– Air University Commander (AU/CC)

• Initial HQ USAF/XONP Funding in Aug 1998• Initial Manning by Personnel from:

– Air Staff (Lt Col, MSgt, GS-6)– AWC (Director)– AF SG ( Deputy Director)

• Dedicated USAF Center Facility at AU

Present PersonnelFull Time

• 5 Air Staff Positions– 3 XONP (Lt Col, MSgt, GS-6)– 1 SG (Deputy Director)– 1 ANG (Special Assistant)

• 1 Air War College Position (Director)

• 2 Contractors (CPC funded)– 1 Administrative Support– 1 Associate Director in Washington

Present PersonnelPart Time

• 1 Air War College (Associate Director)

• 3 Individual Mobilization Augmentees (IMA) billets– Two filled, 1 vacant

• 30 Associates from AU Faculty and other Experts– Topical assistance

Present Sponsors

NUCLEAR AND COUNTERPROLIFERATION DIRECTORATE (HQ USAF/XONP)

DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY (DTRA)• Technology Development Directorate• Advanced Systems and Concepts Office

JOINT SERVICE INTEGRATION GROUP (JSIG)

AIR UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION

READINESS AND INSTALLATION SUPPORT (HQ USAF/ILEX)

FY 01 FUNDING SOURCES: $ 150K from HQ USAF/XONP

$ 200K from DTRA

FY 02 FUNDING SOURCES:$ 150K from HQ USAF/XONP

$ 70K in HQ USAF/XONP Contractor Help $ 205K from DTRA (TD) $ 80K from DTRA (ASCO) $ 25K from USAF/ILEX $ 2K from JSIG $ .5K from AU Foundation

Sponsors/Funding

Kim Jong IL

Our Real Sponsors

Shoko Asahara

Osma Bin Laden

Ramzi Yousef

Saddam Hussein

MuammarQadhafi

AyatollahKhamemei

Bashar Asad

Mullah Omar

MAXIMUMMAXIMUMPOTENTIALPOTENTIAL

THREATTHREAT(190+ STATES)(190+ STATES)

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ACTIVE D

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PASSIVE D

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CONSEQ

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EMENT

REDUCED THREAT

(30+ STATES)

COUNTERING THE

NBC THREATS

Chemical and Biological Warfare Issues for the Air Force

NBC Threats and Counterproliferation

Issues

International Flashpoints

Counterforce AttackOptions: Countering

NBC Threats

Terrorism

On-Scene Commanders Course:

WMD Response

Education

International Rivals

Nuclear Issues and International Security

Theaters of Future Conflict Homeland Security

Aerospace Basic Course (ABC) : WMD Terrorism

WMD: Challenge &Response (ACSC)

Bill PatrickBrad Roberts

C.J. PetersKen Alibek

130 Guest Speaker Visits1998-2002

Amb. RichardButler

Jerrold Post

• MG John Doesburg SBCCOM CBW Passive Defense• Dr Jay Davis DTRA Arms Control Lessons• Vayl Oxford DTRA Counterforce ACTDs• Hon James Miller OSD DOD CP Policies/Programs• BG Timothy McMahon XON CP Issues• MGen Tom Neary XON USAF CP Program• William Patrick III US Offensive BW (pre-69)• Dr Ken Alibek Hadron USSR Off. BW (1972-92)• Michael Aimone AFE USAF Challenges-CB

Ops• Dr. Bruce Bennett RAND CP Lessons for USAF• Dr. David Franz SRI CP Lessons for USAF• Dr. Brad Roberts IDA CP Lessons for USAF• Dr. Robert Joseph NDU ABM Treaty Debate

CPC Speakers Series CPC Speakers Series at AUat AU

• Jerrold Post GWU Rogue Leader Profiles• Col. Don Minner XONP USAF CP Readiness• Lt Gen Joseph Hurd SAIC Korean WMD Threat• Amb. Richard Butler CFR Southern Hussein/UNSCOM• Dr. Gary Resnick DTRA CB Defense Program• B Gen Klaus Schafer USAF/SG Medical Response to WMD• Edward Fei DOE China and Arms Control• Lewis A. Dunn SAIC Nonproliferation Scorecard• Avner Cohen NS Archive Israeli View -Arms Control Kyle Olson RFI Aum Shinrikyo Case• Dr C.J. Peters CDC Emerging Diseases & BW• Col John Warden ACSC Parallel War and

Airpower• MGen Bob Smollen XON USAF Organization for CP• Dr Peter Lavoy NPG School India-Pakistan WMD Issues

CPC Speakers Series CPC Speakers Series at AUat AU

EdgewoodProving Ground

US Army ResearchInstitute for

Infectious Diseases

Human Genome Project

Centers for DiseaseControl

Dept. of Justice Responders

School

Chemical Defense Training Facility

Dugway Proving Ground

Field Studies

Washington DC

AtlantaAnnistonNellis AFB

Dugway Proving Ground

CIA

Nevada Test Site

New Mexico

Los Alamos National Labs

White Sands Missile Test Range

Defense Nuclear Weapons School

Sandia Labs

* US Army Chemical School * Centers for Disease Control* USAMRIID * AF Medical Intel Center* Anniston Station Demil. Fac. * FBI Office, Atlanta & DC* Jt Prog. Office for Bio Defense * Human Genome Project* Soldier Bio Chem Command * PACAF HQ * Asia Pacific Center * Jt. Chem Decon Trng Facility* DOE Arms Control & NP Office * Army Tech Escort Unit* NDU CP Research Center * Institute for Def Analysis* HQ USAF/XONP * Central Intelligence Agency* Dugway Proving Ground * Tooele Chem Demil Facility* Nevada Test Site -DOE * FEMA Region 4 * Alabama State Emergency * DOJ - Center for Domestic Management Agency Preparedness, Anniston * DTRA -OSIA * DTRA-CBW* DTRA-CTR * Los Alamos/Sandia Labs NM* White Sands Missile Test Range * Defense Nuclear Weapons Sch.* Johns Hopkins DNA Analysis Facility

Field Studies

Books:

– Middle East Security in the Shadow of WMD Proliferation

– Future War and Counterproliferation: US Military

Responses to NBC Proliferation Threats

– China’s Military Modernization: Implications for

US Security

– The Rollback of South Africa’s Chemical and Biological

Warfare Program

Research and Publications

Books in Progress

• The Gathering Biological Warfare Storm

• Counter-NBC Operations: Threats and Responses

• International Rivals: Understanding the Adversaries

• The Military Role in Countering Terrorist Use of WMD• The Third Temple’s Holy of Holies: Israel’s Nuclear Weapons• A Chem and Bio Warfare Threat: USAF Water Systems at Risk• Chemical and Biological Warfare: Achilles Heel of the AEF?• The Security Implications of Microdisarmament• Smallpox: A Primer• Deterring Libya: The Strategic Culture of Muammar Qaddafi• Biocruise: A Contemporary Threat• Assessment of the Emerging Biocruise Threat• Homeland Defense: Are We There Yet?• The Anthrax Vaccine Debate: A Clinical Review For Commanders


Warfare Studies: Unclassified

Future Warfare Studies

Classified :

• Israeli Homeland Defense: Lessons from the Passive Defense Program

• Tracking and Targeting Deeply Buried Hard Targets

• The Iranian Shahhab-3 IRBM Program: Analysis of a Threat


Research/Writing in the CPC Pipeline

NAME TITLE • Tim Lindemann Hunting the Cobra: CF Ops Against Enemy NBC Forces

• Rick Hersack Efficacy & Safety of Anthrax Vaccine

• Barbara Bullock Surveillance & Detection: A Public Health Response to Bioterrorism

• Michael Peterson Agroterrorism and Foot & Mouth Disease: Is the US Prepared?

• Harry W, Conley Not With Impunity: Assessing US Policy for Retaliation Against a CB Attack

• Victor Ross SOF Contributions to Counterforce: Desert Storm Case Study & Implications for the Future


NAME TITLE

• Paul S. Land Coping with Libya’s WMD Programs

• Mike Ainscough Next Generation Bioweapons: The Technology of Genetic Engineering Applied to Biowarfare and Bioterrorism

• Brad Roberts How Bioweapons Might Be Used in the Middle East: A Framework for Speculation

• Jerrold Post Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda’s Strategic Culture

• Jerrold Post The Mind of The Terrorist: Who Uses WMD and Why?

• Gary Servold The Muslim Brotherhood


NAME TITLE • Barry Schneider Lessons of CANE for the US Military

• Barry Schneider Lessons of Sept 11th for Countering Bioterrorism

• Barry Schneider “Chemical Warfare” for Encyclopedia Britannica

• Jim Davis Biological Warfare: Myths and Scenarios

• Gregory Giles Ayatollah Khamenei and Iran’s Strategic Culture

• Steve Burgess Pervez Musharraf and Pakistan’s Strategic Culture

• Steve Burgess Maintaining Indian-Pakistan Stability in the Midst of Islamic Radical Actions


NAME TITLE • Chris Hemner Bashar Al-Asad and Syria’s Strategic Culture

• Lawrence Grinter Flashpoint Scenario: A Chinese Attack on Taiwan (Premises, Options, & Outcomes)

• Roman Hrycaj Guiding the US Response to an Overseas NBCR Disaster

• Ed Newsome An Analysis of CW Hazards at USAF Bases

• Mark Kipphut Crossbow and Gulf War Counter-Scud Efforts: Lessons from History • Merrily Baird Kim Jong Il and North Korea’s Strategic Culture

CONFERENCES & WORKSHOPSCONFERENCES & WORKSHOPS

Annual CPC Conferences• November 1999: “Preparing the USAF to Counter Chemical and Biological

Warfare” • November 2000: “Military Operations in a Weapons of Mass

Destruction Storm” • May 2-3, 2002: “Countering the Asymmetric Threat of NBC Warfare and

Terrorism”

Special CPC/CIA Conference• October 2000: “Biological Warfare Cruise Missiles: An Emerging Threat” in

conjunction with the Central Intelligence Agency (120 attendees)

Past CPC WorkshopsPast CPC Workshops

• CPC/CIA Biocruise Workshop

• RESTOPS Issues Workshop

• Middle East Security Workshop

• Counterforce Targeting Workshop

2002 CPC Conference (2-3 May 2002)“Countering the Asymmetric Threat of

NBC Warfare & Terrorism”

3:00 PM - 5:30 PM

Thursday Evening, May 2

Conference & Hotel Registration

5:30 PM - 6:30 PM No Host Social

6:30 PM - 7:00 PM Introductory RemarksMaj Gen Bentley Rayburn, Commandant, Air War College

7:00 PM - 8:00 PM Dinner

8:00 PM - 8:15 PM Break

8:15 PM - 8:45 PM Dessert and CoffeeKeynote SpeakerGeneral John Jumper, Chief of Staff, USAFThe Air Force and Counterforce: Lessons from Afghanistan and the Balkans



Thursday Evening, May 2, Continued

Alternate Lt Gen Chuck Wald, Deputy Chief of Staff, Air and Space OperationsAir Force and Counterforce: Lessons from Afghanistan and the Balkans

8:15 PM - 8:45 PM

8:45 PM -9:00 PM Questions and Adjournment

7:00 AM - 8:00 AM Breakfast, Guest Dining Room

Friday, May 3

8:00 AM - 8:10 AM Introduction to Day’s Proceedings andAdministration Remarks



7:00 AM - 8:00 AM Breakfast, Guest Dining Room

Friday, May 3, Continued

8:00 AM - 8:10 AM Introduction to Day’s Proceedings andAdministration Remarks

8:10 AM - 9:25 AM Panel: Airbase/Port Security and Operations in a WMD World

• Chair: Col Don Minner, Chef, National Security Policy Division, HQ USAF/XONP• Col Don Collins, ACC/SF, Head of ACC Force Protection Working Group, or Brig Gen Shamus, HQ USAF/SP• Col Lewis Vandyke, DTRA/CB• Lt. Gen. Joe Hurd, USAF Ret, Former 7th AF/CC• Col Rufus Brinn, DTRA/CS, or • Col Josuelito Worrell, HQ USAF/ILEX

10:30 AM - 10:40 AM Break



10:40 AM - 11:30 AM Israel’s Counterproliferation & Counterterrorism Programs: Lessons of the U.S. Speaker: IDF General for Israel’s Homeland Security


11:30 AM - Noon Homeland Security, A Not-so-New Mission for the USAFSpeaker: Maj Gen Clary or Col Terry Scherling, HQ USA/XOH

Noon - 1:15 PM Lunch: Served in ChapelOffice of Homeland Security: New Problems, NewAnswersSpeaker: Admiral Steve Abbot, USN retired, DeputyAssistant to the President of Homeland Security

1:15 PM - 1:30 PM Break



1:30 PM - 2:30 PM Panel: USAF CPC Research Reports:• Chair: Col Jim Davis, Deputy Director, USAF CPC• South African Chemical - Biological Warfare Program Dr. Steven Burgess, Professor, Department of strategy, Doctrine, and Airpower, AWC• The Anthrax Vaccine Debate Col Richard Hersack, Chair, Air Force Surgeon General’s Chair, AWC


2:30 PM - 2:40 PM Break

2:40 PM - 4:30 PM Science and Technology for Countering TerrorismSpeaker: Dr. Tom Hopkins, Director, TechnologyDevelopment Directorate, DTRA

4:30 PM - 5:15 PM The Way Ahead in CounterproliferationSpeaker: Dr. Bruce Bennett, RAND

5:15 PM - 5:20 PM Concluding RemarksSpeaker: Dr. Barry Schneider, Director, USAF CPC

CPC Adversary Project

• Research & Publication of Book on International Rivals

• Conference in June

• International Rivals AWC Elective Course

• Rogue State Countermeasures Study

• Speakers

International Rivals ConferenceJune 2002

A Joint Project: The Reves Center for International Affairs, The Collegeof William and Mary; and The USAF Counterproliferation Center

3:00 PM - 5:30 PM Conference and Hotel Registration

Evening , Day 1

6:30 PM - 7:00 PM Introductory RemarksDr. Mitchell Reiss, Director, Reves CenterDr. Barry Schneider, Director, USAF, CPC

6:00 PM - 6:30 PM No Host Social

7:00 PM - 8:00 PM Dinner, Grand Hall, Christopher Wren Building

8:00 PM - 8:15 PM Break


Evening , Day 1 Continued

8:15 PM - 8:45 PM Dessert & CoffeeKeynote SpeakerMr. James Woolsey, former Director of Central IntelligenceSaddam: The Next Target?

Alternate:

General Anthony Zinni, Special Envoy to Middle East,Former CINC US Central CommandMiddle East Personalities

8:45 PM - 9:00 PM Questions and Adjournment


Day 2

7:00 AM - 8:00 AM Breakfast at leisure

10:10 AM - 11:00 AM Speaker: Several candidatesSaddam Hussein and Iraq

8:00 AM - 8:10 AM Introduction to Day’s Proceedings and Admin. Remarks

8:10 AM - 9:00 AM Speaker: Dr. Jerrold Post, George Washington UniversityOsama Bin Laden and Al Qaida

9:00 AM - 9:10 AM Break

9:10 AM - 10:00 AM Speaker: Mr. Greg Giles, SAICAyatollah Khameni and Iran

10:00 AM - 10:10 AM Break

11:00 AM - 12:00 Noon Speaker: Merrily Baird, former CIAKim Jong Il and North Korea


Day 2, Continued

12:00 Noon - 1:30 PM LunchSpeaker: Dr. Stephen Burgess, Professor, AWCBringing Pakistan and Its Panoply of Problems into the Fold

1:30 PM - 2:20 PM Speaker: Dr. Chris Hemmer, Professor, AWCBashar Assad and Syria

2:20 PM - 2:30 PM Break

2:30 PM - 3:20 PM Speaker: Libya and Sudan; Muammar Qaddafi and Umar HasanAhmad al-Bashi

OrSpeaker: Several candidatesOur New Friend, China (But then there’s Taiwan, & Human Rights, and …)


Day 2, Continued

3:30 PM - 4:20 PM Speaker: Dr. Jerrold Post, GWUTerrorist Organizations Likely to Use WMD

4:20 PM - 4:45 PM Closing CommentsDr. Barry Schneider, Director USAF CPCDr. Mitchell Reiss, Director, Reves Center

3:20 PM - 3:30 PM Break

Possible additional speaker/topic: Peg Herman, Syracuse University; Has data base on World Leaders

CPC Research Support (TDYs) $280,000 (1998-2001)

Individual Professional Development, AWC FacultyOver $80K

Speakers through AY01 Over $50K

Exercise, Doctrine, & Other AU Educational Support Over $80K

Student Educational TDYs through AY01 Over $70K

CPC ASSOCIATESCPC ASSOCIATESForce Multipliers

COLLEGE FOR AEROSPACE, DOCTRINE, RESEARCH & EDUCATIONDr. James Titus AU Research Director

COLLEGE FOR PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENTMr. Neil Krosner Incident Response/On Scene CommanderMr. Willie Rogers Incident Response/On Scene Commander

AEROSPACE BASIC COURSELt Col Dale Shoupe Professional Military Education

SCHOOL OF ADVANCED AIRPOWER STUDIESLt Col Peter Hays International RelationsMaj John Terino History of Biological Warfare

CPC ASSOCIATESCPC ASSOCIATESForce Multipliers

AIR FORCE DOCTRINE CENTERLt Col Randy Dobbins Doctrine Development

SENIOR ASSOCIATESDr. Andy Terrill Arms Control/Middle EastDr. Armin Ludwig Geo/Strategic StudiesMr. Stephen Schwab Intelligence/Latin AmericaCol Don Karle (Ret) Director, AU FoundationDr. John Croushorn Emergency MedicineCol Victor Budura (Ret) Space IssuesDr. Lee Dowdy AEF, Middle East

AF OFFICER ACCESSION AND TRAINING SCHOOLCapt Eric Moody Officer Assessions/Curriculum Development

CPC Electronic OutreachTo USAF/DoD

• Channel 35 (AUTV)

• Speaker Videos

• CPC Outreach Journal

• CPC Web Site

“We Cannot Afford to be THE UNREADY

Confronting THE UNTHINKABLE”

USAF CPC

Documents

Defeating the Asymmetric Threat Current Brief Updated: 25 Feb 02 USAF Counterproliferation Center (CPC) Informational Briefing Countering Weapons of Mass