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© Fraunhofer ISI Johannes Eckstein, Jose A. Ordonez March 2, 2020 – Wyndham Casablanca Hotel, Jakarta DECREASING COSTS FOR RE-TECHNOLOGIES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR LONG TERM PLANNING OF INDONESIA

DECREAS ING COS TS FOR RE-TECHNOLOGIES AND … · 2020. 10. 22. · 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032] Year LCOE, wind onshore ASEAN, previous ASEAN, recent DECREAS

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Page 1: DECREAS ING COS TS FOR RE-TECHNOLOGIES AND … · 2020. 10. 22. · 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032] Year LCOE, wind onshore ASEAN, previous ASEAN, recent DECREAS

© Fraunhofer ISI

Johannes Eckstein, Jose A. OrdonezMarch 2, 2020 – Wyndham Casablanca Hotel, Jakarta

D E C R E A S I N G C OS TS F OR R E -TE C HN OL OG I E S A N D I M P L I C A TI ON S F OR L ON G TE R M P L A N N I N G OF I N D ON E S I A

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A g e n d a

15:00 - 15:20 Registration

15:20 – 15:30 Welcoming words and Introduction

15:30 - 16:00 Input presentation

Falling Costs for Renewables and their implications

16:00 - 16:30 Insights from a survey

Financing and barriers to the development of RE

16:30 - 16:45 Time for discussions - Coffee Break

16:45 – 18:15 Discussion

Reflecting key ins ights from discuss ions with Indonesian stakeholders of energy and climate policy

18:15 - 18:30 Wrap-up and Conclusion

18:30 - 20:00 Networking Dinner

March 2, 2020 – Wyndham Casablanca Hotel, Jakarta

Page 3: DECREAS ING COS TS FOR RE-TECHNOLOGIES AND … · 2020. 10. 22. · 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032] Year LCOE, wind onshore ASEAN, previous ASEAN, recent DECREAS

© Fraunhofer ISI

D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I M P L I C A T I O N S F O R L O N G T E R M P L A N N I N G O F I N D O N E S I A

F R A UN HOF E R S OC I E TY A N D F R A UN HOF E R I S I

W O R K S H O P , M A R C H 2 , 2 0 2 0 – W Y N D H A M H O T E L J A K A R T A

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Page 4

T H E F R A U N H O F E R S O C I E T Y - F A C T S A N D F I G U R E S

The Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft undertakes applied research of direct utility to private and public enterprise and of wide benefit to society.

72 institutes and research units

More than 70% contracts with industry and from publicly financed research projects.

Almost 30% as basic funding from German government

Fin

an

ce v

olu

me

€2.3 billion

2017C

on

tra

ctR

ese

arc

h

€2.0billion

Capital expenditure on major infrastructure & defense research

25,527 employees

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Salvador

Campinas

São Paulo

Santiago de Chile

Auckland

Bangalore

Jakarta

Singapur

Kuala Lumpur

Osaka

Tokio

SendaiSeoulPeking

Ulsan

Kairo

Lavon

Göteborg

Glasgow

Dublin Nijmegen

Brüssel

Porto

Bozen

Wien

BudapestGraz

Enschede

BostonPlymouth

East Lansing

Newark

Storrs

London

Hamilton

Pretoria

Stellenbosch

Stockholm

Jerusalem

Brisbane

College Park

ErcolanoBrookline

São José dos Campos

Subsidiary Center Project Center ICON/Strategic cooperation Representative/Marketing Office Senior Advisor

T H E F R A U N H O F E R S O C I E T Y W O R L D W I D E

Page 6: DECREAS ING COS TS FOR RE-TECHNOLOGIES AND … · 2020. 10. 22. · 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032] Year LCOE, wind onshore ASEAN, previous ASEAN, recent DECREAS

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Health and environment

Communication and knowledge

Production and services

Mobility and transport

Energy and resources

Security and protection

T H E F R A U N H O F E R S O C I E T Y – F I E L D S O F R E S E A R C H

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Page 7

7 C o m p e t e n c e C e n t e r s

F R A U N H O F E R I S II n s t i t u t e f o r S y s t e m s a n d I n n o v a t i o n s R e s e a r c h

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The Competence Centers for Energy

We are 70 colleagues working together to...

... model energy demand and supply

... analyse new technological developments

... combine and integrate demand and supply of renewable energies

... evaluate policy instruments

... advise all political layers on questions related to

the energy transition

and climate policy

... advise companies on strategies for energy supply and use

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F R A U N H O F E R I S I

Projects of Fraunhofer ISI in the international context

Support to the development to the 4th and 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook (ASEAN Centre for Energy)

Assessing local manufacturing potentials for conventional and renewable technologies in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Developing and assessing long-term decarbonization scenarios for Germany and EU (2050)

Developing of energy efficiency baseline trajectory and scenario-based policy evaluation for the government of Mexico

Constant consultancy to the German government on the energy transition (Energiewende)

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I M P L I C A T I O N S F O R L O N G T E R M P L A N N I N G O F I N D O N E S I A

I N P UT P R E S E N TA TI ON : F A L L I N G C OS TS F OR R E N E WA B L E S A N D THE I R I M P L I C A TI ON S

W O R K S H O P , M A R C H 2 , 2 0 2 0 – W Y N D H A M H O T E L J A K A R T A

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

Solar PV and wind energy as well as battery technologies for EVs are substantially cheaper now than projected previously, e.g. in 2015, previous to the Paris Agreement.

Technologies are expected to have faster cost reductions up to 2030 than assumed before.

Research question: How could these cost reductions be reflected in planning processes of Indonesia?

in energy planning

in informing climate mitigation plans

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

Global auction prices for RE technologies have seen a massive reduction

Evolution of solar PV auction prices between 2010 and 2017

https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2017/Jun/IRENA_Renewable_Energy_Auctions_2017.pdf

fossil fuel LCOE

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

Global auction prices for RE technologies have seen a massive reduction

Evolution of wind auction prices between 2010 and 2017

https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2017/Jun/IRENA_Renewable_Energy_Auctions_2017.pdf

fossil fuel LCOE

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

The LCOE (levelized costs of electricity) reflect all investment costs, the operational costs and their discount over

LCOE is a measure to reflect the costs of a profitable project

The LCOE for solar PV and wind energy over the last 10 years , now reaching values of foss il fuel power

fossil fuel LCOE0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

LCO

E [U

SD/M

Wh

]

Year

Levelized cost of electricity (global average)

solar PV

Windonshore

IRENA, 2019: Renewable Energy Generation Costs in 2018

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

The LCOE for solar PV and wind energy over the last 10 years , now reaching values of foss il fuel power

2014 values

- 20% to -50%

projections from 2014

for 2025 and 2030

recent projections

for 2025 and 2030

https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/bringing-climate-policy-up-to-date-decreasing-cost

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

planned 2015 planned 2020

Inve

stm

ent

RE

cap

acit

y

Generic country plan

RE installed investment

D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

Assuming the same investment as in 2015

Considering that costs have fallen by 50%

The same investment now could lead to double the uptake of RE

same investment

What aboutIndonesia?

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

RE targets in Indonesia

23% target RE in all sectors: set down in presidential regulation

RUEN is the national energy plan set down by DEN

for the energy system

includes electricity, transport, industry

23% target in TPES

RUPTL is the plan of PLN

for the electricity system

23% target in generation

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

DEN: RUEN, 2014

Type - [MW] 2025 2050

Geothermal 7,239 17,546

Hydro 20,960 45,379

Bionergy 5,532 26,123

Solar 6,379 45,000

Wind 1,807 28,607

Other RE 3,128 6,383

DEN, RUEN, 2014

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60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

LCO

E [U

SD/M

Wh

]

Year

LCOE, wind onshore

ASEAN, previous

ASEAN, recent

D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

In Indonesia, past LCOE projections are difficult to obtain, but data from the ASEAN region can be informative of the trend

For wind, projected LCOEs have dropped between 7% and 30%

fossil fuel LCOE

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

For solar PV, LCOEs have dropped between 30% and 50% in the ASEAN region; similar values for Indonesia where available

most recent projects are undercutting the LCOE of projections for 2030 already, now at 5.8 cents /kWh

fossil fuel LCOE58 USD/MWh Bali, Java project

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

LCO

E [U

SD/M

Wh

]

Year

LCOE, solar PV

ASEAN,previousASEAN, recent

Indonesia,recentcurrent costs

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

RUEN development of solar PV and wind onshore for Indonesia

6500

14200

1800

7040

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032

Cap

acit

y [M

W] RUEN Solar

RUEN Wind

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

Using updated cost projections, the same investments could inform a higher ambition in taking up solar PV and wind

6500

14200

1800

7040

10390

22186

2102

7875

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032

Cap

acit

y [M

W] RUEN Solar

RUEN Wind

With cost degr.Solar

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

The drop in costs of solar PV and wind energy could inform an increase of the target from 45MW to 49MW

45

70

49

78

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032

Cap

acit

y [G

W]

Year

RUEN TotalWith cost degr.…

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

An increase in solar PV and wind could alter the energy mix to reach the target of 23%

Could this make the implementation more cost optimal?

11.4%

16.8%

6.6%

12.2%

37.4%

8.6%

6.9%

Using cost degression for cost optimization

Geothermal

Water

Minihydro andMicrohydro

Bioenergy

Solar

Wind onshore

Other RE

16.0%

39.8%

6.6%

12.2%

14.4%

4.0%6.9%

Planned RE Capacity Shares (2025)

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

An increase of generation would follow from increasing capacity

Could inform an update of the RUPTL

Could this make the implementation more cost optimal for PLN and end consumers?

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027

Gen

erat

ion

[G

Wh

/a]

Year

RUPTL Generation

RUPTL Hydro

RUPTL Geothermal

RUPTL Other RE

RUEN solar, recent costs

RUEN wind, recent costs

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

The NDC is currently being updated, the main share of emission reductions currently is with forestry. 314 MtCO2 emission reduction is foreseen for energy.

Considering cost reductions, could the energy sector take a higher share of mitigation?

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

2010 2030 - BAU 2030 - CM1 2030 - CM2

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

[MtC

O2

e]NDC - Projected emissions

Forestry**

Agriculture

IPPU

Waste

Energy*

Indonesia, 2015: The Nationally Determined Contribution

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

Costs for solar PV and wind energy have seen mass ive cost reductions over the last years

reflected in auction outcomes worldwide

reflected in falling LCOEs globally

These cost reductions could inform an update of energy planning

For Indonesia:

costs have also fallen dramatically, esp. considering recent projects

This could inform an update of RUEN, RUPTL

Could this make the planning more cost optimized?

Could this inform an increase in ambition?

In turn, could this increase the share of mitigation taken by the energy sector?

Page 28: DECREAS ING COS TS FOR RE-TECHNOLOGIES AND … · 2020. 10. 22. · 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032] Year LCOE, wind onshore ASEAN, previous ASEAN, recent DECREAS

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I M P L I C A T I O N S F O R L O N G T E R M P L A N N I N G O F I N D O N E S I A

I N P UT P R E S E N TA TI ON : B A R R I E R S TO R E D E V E L OP M E N T I N I N D ON E S I A ’ S P OWE R S E C TOR – A D OUB L E E D G E D K N I F E.

W O R K S H O P , M A R C H 2 , 2 0 2 0 – W Y N D H A M H O T E L J A K A R T A

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B A R R I E R S T O T H E D E V E L O P M E N T O F R E – A D O U B L E E D G E D K N I F E

Worldwide trend show a massive cost reduction for key RE technologies in the power sector.

Indonesia, while having experienced reductions, is still at relative high cost when compared with global context.

Lead question:

Why are costs for key RE technologies still at relatively high level in Indonesia?

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

Global auction prices for RE technologies have seen a massive reduction

Evolution of solar PV auction prices between 2010 and 2017

Source: IRENA (2017)

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C O M P O N E N T S O F L C O E

LCOE can be understood as life-cycle costs of an energy project, e.g. costs by the project’s electricity generation over its lifetime (USD cents per kWh).

LCOE can be divided in technology and financing costs .

Technology costs are made up of investment costs and O&M

Financing costs are made up of the cost of equity and debt.

Financing Costs

Technology Costs

LCOE

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C O S T S T R U C T U R E O V E R L I F T I M E O F W I N D A N D G A S P R O J E C T

The cost structure of a wind onshore over its lifetime compared to a natural gas power plant

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C O M P O N E N T S O F L E V E L I Z E D C O S T O F E L E C T R I C I T Y

LCOE as a metric allows comparing the generation costs of conventional plants with RE, despite their different cost structures

The capital intens ity of RE–high upfront investment costs and low operational costs – results in renewable energy investments being especially sensitive to financing costs.

Financing Costs

Technology Costs

Conventional RE Project

Financing Costs

Technology Costs

LCOE LCOE

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Page 34 high interest rate

W h y , d e s p i t e b i g p o t e n t i a l , s o l i t t l e i n s t a l l a t i o n s t o R E ?

If interest rate for financing are high, RE projects quickly become expensive, as compared to conventional projects.

Increse in the interest rates of cost and equity:

low interest rateSo

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C O S T S T R U C T U R E O V E R L I F T I M E O F W I N D A N D G A S P R O J E C T

The cost structure of a wind onshore over its lifetime compared to a natural gas power plant

Source: UNDP (2013) Derisking Renewable Energy Investment

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C O S T S T R U C T U R E O V E R L I F T I M E O F W I N D A N D G A S P R O J E C T

Investment costs account for approx. 80% of the total lifetime technology costs for wind but only 15% for gas.

O&M costs are relatively low for wind energy , high for gas (fuel cost)

RE investments exchange long-term fuel costs for upfront investment costs .

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A D O U B L E D E D G E K N I F E 🔪B A R R I E R S T O T H E D E V E L O P M E N T O F R E P R O J E C T S

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A D O U B L E D E D G E K N I F E – B A R R I E R S T O T H E D E V E L O P M E N T O F R E P R O J E C T S

Barriers to the development of RE projects

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A D O U B L E D E D G E K N I F E 🔪B A R R I E R S T O T H E D E V E L O P M E N T O F R E P R O J E C T S

Barriers to the development of a power project in general and to RE projects in particular are two fold 🔪

Firstly , they are barriers to the development

Secondly, they increase the risk of success and thereby increase the financing cost:

So

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A D O U B L E D E D G E K N I F E 🔪B A R R I E R S T O T H E D E V E L O P M E N T O F R E P R O J E C T S

Barriers to the development of a power project in general and to RE projects in particular are two fold 🔪

Policies such as permit simplification, reduced counterparty risk, attractive and stable RE support schemes can deriskinvestment and lower LCOE of RE project

So

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DP (

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A D O U B L E D E D G E K N I F E 🔪B A R R I E R S T O T H E D E V E L O P M E N T O F R E P R O J E C T S

Barriers to the development of a power project in general and to RE projects in particular are two fold 🔪

Policies such as permit simplification, reduced counterparty risk, attractive and stable RE support schemes can deriskinvestment and lower LCOE of RE project

Source: UNDP (2013) Derisking Renewable Energy Investment

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A D O U B L E D E D G E K N I F E 🔪B A R R I E R S T O T H E D E V E L O P M E N T O F R E P R O J E C T S

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B A R R I E R S T O T H E D E V E L O P M E N T O F R E P R O J E C T SS U R V E Y I N S I G H T S

Wind power13%

Geothermal power13%

Biomass/Biogas power

plants11%

Micro-hydro power16%

Large hydro power

9%

Solar PV38%

Technology

Project developer

19%

Investor / Financing Institution

6%

Utility4%

Government15%

Association13%

NGO10%

Research / Academia

15%

other18%

Stakeholder

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A D O U B L E D E D G E K N I F E – B A R R I E R S T O T H E D E V E L O P M E N T O F R E P R O J E C T S

Barriers to the development of RE projects

Source: Woodman et al (2017)

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I N S I G H T S F R O M T H E S U R V E YA D M I N I S T R A T I V E B A R R I E R S

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

NO BARRIER

LOW BARRIER

MEDIUMBARRIER

HIGH BARRIER

VERY HIGHBARRIER

No. of responses

Administrative Barriers

Land availibility

Complexity of administrative procedure

Duration of administrative procedure

Cost of administrative procedure

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I N S I G H T S F R O M T H E S U R V E YE L E C T R I C I T Y M A R K E T S T R U C T U R E A N D R E G U L A T I O N

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

NO BARRIER

LOW BARRIER

MEDIUM BARRIER

HIGH BARRIER

VERY HIGH BARRIER

No of respondants

Electricity market structure and regulation

Balancing costs for deviations between forecast & generation of electricity

Reliability of long term contracts (Power Purchase Agreements)

Availability of long term contracts (Power Purchase Agreements)

Market concentration in PLN (lack of unbundling)

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I N S I G H T S F R O M T H E S U R V E YG R I D I N F R A S T R U C T U R E A N D R E G U L A T I O N

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

NO BARRIER

LOW BARRIER

MEDIUM BARRIER

HIGH BARRIER

VERY HIGH BARRIER

No. of responses

Grid infrastructure and regulation

Predictability of future electricity grid development

Predictability & transparency of the grid connection procedure

Dispatch of renewable electricity (potential uncompensated curtailment)

Cost of getting grid access

Lead time for getting grid access

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I N S I G H T S F R O M T H E S U R V E YE C O N O M I C A N D P O L I T I C A L F R A M E W O R K

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

NO BARRIER

LOW BARRIER

MEDIUM BARRIER

HIGH BARRIER

VERY HIGH BARRIER

No of respondans

Economic and political framework

Revenue risk under the present RE support scheme (tariff adjustments to support scheme)

Overall reliability of the RE support scheme (risk of sudden changes to support scheme)

Remuneration level for renewable electricity (expected income for RE project under support scheme)

Targets for RE deployment (legally binding RE targets)

General national policy stability (frequently changing strategies and regulations)

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C o n c l u s i o n s

LCOE can be divided in technology costs and financing costs.

Technology costs have showed massive cost reductions globally.

Financing costs depend on interest rate and country specific risks and barriers.

Barriers can be reduced by right policies, finance can be de-risked

Thereby, LCOEs can drop even more in years to come

Questions or comments?

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Page 50

Th a n k s f o r y o u r a t t e n t i o n

Take part in the survey here: https://by4794.customervoice360.com/uc/energi/

Sources and recommended literature:

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I M P L I C A T I O N S F O R L O N G T E R M P L A N N I N G O F I N D O N E S I A

C OF F E E B R E A K

W O R K S H O P , M A R C H 2 , 2 0 2 0 – W Y N D H A M H O T E L J A K A R T A

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I M P L I C A T I O N S F O R L O N G T E R M P L A N N I N G O F I N D O N E S I A

D I S C US S I ON : R E F L E C TI N G K E Y I N S I G HTS ON P L A N N I N G A N D P R OC E S S E S

W O R K S H O P , M A R C H 2 , 2 0 2 0 – W Y N D H A M H O T E L J A K A R T A

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C O N T R O V E R S I A L T O P I C 1C H E A P E L E C T R I C I T Y V S . S U S T A I N I N G C O A L I N D U S T R Y

Key ins ight: Solar PV and wind will, in 5 years from now, be definitely cheaper than coal.

Solar PV already less than 6 US cent /kWh, technology costs will certainly fall even more.

Java-Bali grid is big enough to take 10-15% share of variable RE, so far close to 0%.

Coal mining is a backbone industry, providing employment, profits, public-income at local and national level.

2025: Will PLN go for the cheapest technology?

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C O N T R O V E R S I A L T O P I C 2H A R M F U L E C O N O M I C I M P A C T S

Key ins ight: Reliance on coal and higher electricity prices can harm industrial competitiveness

Energy and electricity intensive industries might relocate to emerging economies with cheaper prices.

Exporting products to other countries that impose boarder carbon taxes or regulatory measures using grid emission factors as indicator can strongly harm exports.

India (175GW RE target), Vietnam (5GW RE in 2019) and other countries moving more quickly could leave Indonesia behind.

Will economic impacts of us ing coal harm Indonesia?

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C O N T R O V E R S I A L T O P I C 3 C O S T O P T I M A L T E C H N O L O G Y M I X

Key ins ight: Official planning documents and targets in RUEN, RUPTL, NDCs, could be cost-optimized

Cost optimization models considering costs per unit of electricity, lifetime of plant, impact on power system as a whole, would lead to a different composition of power sector.

Different plans with different pathways (RUEN, RUKN, RUPTL) could be streamlined based on minimal costs for PLN and consumers.

Are there backs ides to us ing cost optimization? If not, why isn’t it cons idered more strongly?

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C O N T R O V E R S I A L T O P I C 4G L O B A L W A R M I N G

Key ins ight: Low cost RE in the power sector can support CO2 emiss ion reduction targets

Coal, even supercritical or ultra-supercritical, has the highest emission factor among all fuels.

Indonesia is top 4 country with envisioned coal-fired plans development.

Indonesia aims to reduce its GHG emissions as internationally communicated.

Should the energy sector contribute more strongly with low-cost RE to mitigation efforts?

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I M P L I C A T I O N S F O R L O N G T E R M P L A N N I N G O F I N D O N E S I A

WR A P -UP A N D N E X T S TE P S

W O R K S H O P , M A R C H 2 , 2 0 2 0 – W Y N D H A M H O T E L J A K A R T A

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D E C R E A S I N G C O S T S F O R R E - T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D I T S I M P L I C A T I O N F O R E N E R G Y P L A N N I N G

We are happy to receive your feedback!

We will publish results and a report. Please provide your email to receive updates.

Please follow the project on our website

https://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/en/competence-center/energiepolitik-energiemaerkte/projekte/ndc-update.html#tabpanel-1

Many thanks for your time and the ins ights shared!

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Johannes Eckstein, Jose A. OrdonezMarch 2, 2020 – Wyndham Casablanca Hotel, Jakarta

D E C R E A S I N G C OS TS F OR R E -TE C HN OL OG I E S A N D I M P L I C A TI ON S F OR L ON G TE R M P L A N N I N G OF I N D ON E S I A

Please reach out for further contactand for receiving updates

Johannes Eckstein

[email protected]

+4916096959236 (Whatsapp)

Jose A Ordonez

[email protected]

+491723188851 (Whatsapp)

Please visit our project website forfurther information

https://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/en/competence-center/energiepolitik-energiemaerkte/projekte/ndc-update.html#tabpanel-1