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Declaration of Conflict of Interest. Allan Davison. Making hunger history?. [email protected]. please disturb!. www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition. 2. Task of making hunger history-MDG1. Where are we?. Much better since the MDGs, but far from making hunger history. Where are we going?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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I, Allan Davison declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*: No
I have done consulting work for the following companies*: No
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*: None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*: None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
2
2 www.sfu.ca/global-nutritionplease disturb!
Allan Davison
Making hunger history?
Task of making hunger history-MDG1
3
Where are we?
Where are we going?
Much better since the MDGs, but far from making hunger history
Hunger on a global scale will disappear, in 2 or 3 more 15y plans. New initiatives
Only 5-10 nations of 23 will reach 0.7% of GDP. None will forgo unfair trade rules
What’s working, what’s not?
Aid isn’t workingTrade for profit instead
Trade barriers. Fair trade & aid
Population outstrips food supply
… we give more than anyone!
Trillions wasted! - 1 b still starving
MDGs won’t be achieved
Most aid corrupt dictators Corrupt multinationals
2008 recession
Never promised 0.7% and anyway …
“Trade not aid”
Broken promises
Malthus is wrong
4
V little is wasted
½ what EU gives!
Profit motive hasn’t worked - aid is needed
“They” didn’t cause it
You did so!
Wo
rld
GD
P $
PP
P p
er
cap
(es
t) 1
500-
2100
1500 2000$0
$5,000
$10,000
India to 1500
China + Indiato 1850
WesternEuropeto 1945
USA + WestEurope
since 1945
http://ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/
Manifest destiny of world - wealth
China +India 2040?
5
Number of malnourished world-wide
61970 1980 1990 2000 20100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000M
illio
ns
un
der
-no
uri
shed
(FA
O k
cal /
ho
use
ho
ld)
FAO data
water-carrier
See also: WHO, UN, WB, USDA, CIA, OECD, IFPRI
UNICEF 2009
http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf
Food insufficient for sustenance
World% undernourished
71970 1980 1990 2000 201015
33%
17%same data
22%
14%
1970 2010 2015 target 2030 FAO est
0
2000
4000
6000
8000Fed
Malnourished
Number fed & under-nourished worldwide
8
14%
Prediction
6%11%
Target
33%
88
millions
9
http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf
http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/32/4/518.full.pdf
Percentage stunted
60%
40%
20%
Africa
Asia
Latin Am
Last 2 or 3 points are projections
1980 & every 5 years
11
http://www.globalissues.org/article/35/foreign-aid-development-assistance#GovernmentsCuttingBackonPromisedResponsibilities
“Development aid”, not spent on poverty or development
Lost to: InefficiencyUnfair tradeEmergency aid RefugeesTied to benefit rich & Debt relief
“Phantom aid”, the wasted 47%Refers toODA, not
MDGs
Real aid53%
60% of US ODA goes to Israel & Iraq
Corrupt? Dictators? Rich...
Series1
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Accept “bribes” for trade concessions. Their people suffer, & hate them
Accept personal & campaign “contributions” peddling influence. Could stop bribery at home & abroad by abolishing secret a/c
... & Poor
12
$100
k b
ure
aucr
ats
Bill
ion
s M
NC
s
$10k
co
rru
pt
dic
tato
rs
$100
0k p
resi
den
ts,
PM
s, b
ure
aucr
ats
wikipedia Lockheed
SwissAir
We know what works:•Transparent & accountable , open bids
•Partnerships not paternalism
•Goals, objectives, timed milestones
•Strategies revised annually by both partners
•Externally monitored. No political pressure
•Sustainable emphasis on poverty, agriculture
•Serves recipient needs, not donor / ideology
•Firm long-term commitments: MV, Grameen
Unrealistic? Let’s see ...13 Paul Collier
• Grameen Family of social enterprises
• Billionaire philanthropists & foundations
• The Millennium Village project
• Passionate & influential voices for change
• Scientists & students bring energy to future
• Instant spread of innovations: agric, educ, &c
Beyond MDGs: amazing changes:
14 www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
17
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs290/en/index.html
http://www.fao.org/mdg/en/http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/reports.shtml#mdgs
Number stunted
200m
100m
0
Africa
Asia
Latin Am
1980 & every 5 years