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DECISION TREEDECISION TREEDECISION TREEDECISION TREE
Developed for the
National Petroleum Technology OfficeBy
Brian Keltch & Andrew Hastings
(918) 699-2065
TRW
Presented By Len Volk
What Is It?What Is It?
• Computer program
• Aids making decisions & risks in these decisions
• Organizes available information
• Highlights missing data
• Provides “big picture”
• Applicable to any process or project
OutlineOutline
• Demonstrate program using a simple example
• Apply decision tree concept to: Hydraulic stimulation of oil & gas
wellsEvaluating a sand deposit
• Future enhancements
Choice Node: Alternatives or choices – Name
Chance Node: Multiple uncertainties – Name & Probability
Value Node: The terminal node - Value
Propagation of Fracture Propagation of Fracture With TimeWith Time
Fracture Cross SectionFracture Cross Section
Shale
Shale
Typical InformationTypical InformationAvailable About a WellAvailable About a Well
• Reservoir depth• Bottom hole temperature• Fluid type (oil, water, gas)• Production history• Initial logs (pay thickness, porosity,
bounding zones)• Initial well test (Po, k)• Reservoir rock characteristics (SS, LS,
clay)
Fracturing-1Fracturing-1
Workover
IOR
Fracture
Horiz Well
H2O Flood
New Well
Nothing
Propellant
Explosive
Hydraulic
Consultant
Internal
Service Co.
Me
Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3
Fracturing-2Fracturing-2
No CBL
No W Test
W Test: p, s
Consultant
Internal
Service Co.
Me
Run CBL
Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5
Data for CBLData for CBLCBL cost
Remediation cost
Frac job cost
Current production
Oil price
Post frac production
Production loss if bad CB
No. day/yr production
$5000
$15,000
$100,000
10 Bbl/day
$30/Bbl
30 Bbl/day
2 Bbl/day
200 day
5yr revenue increase with frac: $600,000
5yr loss in revenue if CB bad: $60,000
Cement Bond LogCement Bond Log
Run CBLCost: $5000
No CBL
P=40%CB bad
CB OKP=60%
CBL bad, fixCost: $15,000
CBL OK
CB OKP=90%
CB badP=10%
CB fixedP=80%
CB badP=20%
$495,000
$-165,000
$480,000
$-180,000
$-160,000
$500,000
[$445,000]
[$-16,500]
[$384,000]
[$-36,000]
[$300,000]
[$-64,000]
Fracturing-3Fracturing-3
No CBL
No Perfs
Re-Perf
Run CBL No Test
Stress Test
Annulus
Casing
Tubing
No Pr Test
Pr Test
Estimate Cw
FO Test: Cw
Cycle 8
Cycle 6Cycle 5
Cycle 10Cycle 9
Cycle 7
Core Test:Cw
Fracturing-4Fracturing-4
250-1000’
1000-2000’
Annulus
Casing
RC Sand
MS Sand
Tubing
<250’
>2000’
HS Sand
ISP
HSP
Cycle 10 Cycle 11 Cycle 12
Fracturing-5Fracturing-5
16/30 Mesh
12/20 Mesh
RC Sand
MS Sand
40/70 Mesh
8/16 Mesh
HS Sand
ISP
HSP
20/40 Mesh
Foam
Emulsion
WB Fluid
HC Fluid
Cycle 12 Cycle 13 Cycle 14
Fracturing-6Fracturing-6
CMHPG
HPG
Water
Guar
HEC
Foam
Emulsion
WB Fluid
HC FluidNo X-Linker
X-Linker
Cycle 14 Cycle 15 Cycle 16
Fracturing-7Fracturing-7
Titanate
Borate
Enzyme
NoneZirconate
No X-L
X-Linked Oxidant
Cycle 16 Cycle 17 Cycle 18
Fracturing-8Fracturing-8
Enzyme
None
Oxidant
Encapsulated
No
100 Mesh Sand
Oil-Sol Resin
Silica Flour
None
Ca Carbonate
Cycle 18 Cycle 19 Cycle 20
Fracturing-9Fracturing-9
5% Diesel
No HC
3% Diesel
Clay Stab 2
KCl
100 Mesh Sand
Oil-Sol Resin
Silica Flour
None
Ca Carbonate
Cycle 20 Cycle 21 Cycle 22
Clay Stab 1
None
Fracturing-10Fracturing-10
25% Pad
50% Pad
10% Pad
Clay Stab 2
KCl
15-25Bbl/m
25-50Bbl/m
50-100Bbl/m
Cycle 22 Cycle 23 Cycle 24
Clay Stab 1
None
Fracturing-11Fracturing-11
Flow Back
Shut-In
10-25Bbl/m
25-50Bbl/m
50-100Bbl/m
Small Serv Co
Major Serv Co
Indep Serv Co
Cycle 24 Cycle 26Cycle 25
Development of a Sand Development of a Sand DepositDeposit
Do C
Do B
Do A
Do D
Do A
Do B
Do C
Do D
No
No
No
No
Short cut
notation
Sand Deposit-1Sand Deposit-1
Surface Maps
Wells
Excavations
Satellite
Survey Existing Data
Aerial
Sand Deposit-2Sand Deposit-2
30’
Back Hoe
10’
200’
Sample Collection
60’
Depth
Spatial
Pattern
Factorial
1000’
500’
100’
20’
Core
Sand Deposit-3Sand Deposit-3
Glass Sand
Water Pack
Aggregate
Frac Sand
Evaluating Potential Products
Blast Sand
Pr Minerals
Rd Base
Cement
Asphalt
Aqua Regia
Elemental
Mineral
Fire Assay
Sieve Anal
Mineral Sol.
Mineral Anal
Round&Sphere
Crush Res.
Re, Os
Au, Pd
Pt, Rh
Sand Deposit-4Sand Deposit-4Sand Deposit-4Sand Deposit-4
Transportation
Classification
Scrubbing
Disaggregation
Frac Sand Development
Washing
Mining
Frac Sand
Equipment?
Consolidated?
Overburden
Screen Type?
Screen Size?
Mesh Sizes?
Planned EnhancementsPlanned Enhancements
• Allow Decision Tree to be placed into a Word document or PowerPoint presentation
• Add ability to edit directly from screen
• Several improvements in editing branches
• Allow printing as Portrait or Landscape
• Many others – given in Slide Notes
Len Volk
International Separations Technology, Woodward, OK
The University of Tulsa, Petroleum Engineering
PCM Technical, Tulsa, OK
Consultant, Tulsa, OK
(918) 481-5948
(918) 852-6546 (cell)
