Decision support systems for Decision support systems for ocean ecosystem-climate ocean ecosystem-climate

interactionsinteractionsFrancisco Chavez

Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

and mostly others

ConclusionsConclusions• Sophisticated observing systems, increased computing power Sophisticated observing systems, increased computing power

for modeling and improved ecosystem theory provide the for modeling and improved ecosystem theory provide the framework framework todaytoday to develop ecological forecasts useful for to develop ecological forecasts useful for societysociety

• Nature will continue to surprise (at a faster rate due to global Nature will continue to surprise (at a faster rate due to global change) and our theory will need to constantly evolvechange) and our theory will need to constantly evolve

• NASA will need to develop new direct or indirect estimates NASA will need to develop new direct or indirect estimates (and models) of ecologically relevant properties beyond (and models) of ecologically relevant properties beyond chlorophyllchlorophyll

• Better working relationships between resource managers and Better working relationships between resource managers and NASA should be fosteredNASA should be fostered

RoadmapRoadmap

• How did we get hereHow did we get here

• ApproachApproach

• Case StudiesCase Studies

• The way forwardThe way forward

During the 1970s Bob Smith, Dick Dugdale and Dick Barber believed that, in coastal upwelling research, physics and biology together would be more than the sum of the parts and together could deliver an applied science product regarding management of living marine resources.

CUEA was successful as an interdisciplinary basic research project; but CUEA failed to deliver an applied science product it had promised regarding management of living marine resources.

What didn’t CUEA deliver? Why not? Is progress being made?

The CUEA proposal funded by NSF in the 70s said:

“The goal of the Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems Analysis Program is to understand the coastal upwelling ecosystem well enough to predict its response far enough in advance to be useful to mankind.” [in the management of living marine resources].

According to Barber

Conclusions regarding “useful to mankind” forecasting:

1. Goal was inherently unattainable in 1972 to 1980.

2. Limitations (deficiencies) in both in theory and technology.

3. The deficiencies in theory (food web structure, Fe, remote forcing, decadal variability) were serious, but a lot (~75%?) of the 1972/1980 physical and biological theory was correct.

4. Technological limitations in computation, observing systems and information handling infrastructure were fatal due to the constraints they imposed (undersampling, inadequate space and time resolution and inadequate model complexity.)

5. These technical limitations were unconceivable at the time and had to change many orders of magnitude before “useful” forecasting could be done.

But the goal is now within reach

Science at the leading and/or bleeding edge

First ever long term forecast of chlorophyll?

We know forecast “drifts” after 5 months

Comparison of forecast anomalies with SeaWIFS anomalies

Barber, Chai, Chao, Chavez

Basin-scale model run for 10 years forced by NOAA blended winds then forced by NCEP 9 month forecast

ApproachApproach

• Retrospective analysis (of Retrospective analysis (of in situin situ and and remote sensing data)remote sensing data)

• Identify changes in ecosystem and Identify changes in ecosystem and environmentenvironment

• Develop conceptual and numerical modelsDevelop conceptual and numerical models

• Look at model solutions (physics, Look at model solutions (physics, biogeochemistry, fish) for driversbiogeochemistry, fish) for drivers

• Forecast and hindcastForecast and hindcast

El Viejo La Vieja

El Viejo

La Vieja

It is a familiar storyChildEl Niño La Niña

Parent

1900 to 2000

Once ever 3-8 years

Once ever 25-40 years

TwoPrimaryStates

Change

Varia-bility

Low oxygen

Realistic model of the Pacific at 12.5 km resolution - SST

Yi Chao, JPL

Computing power allows for model simulations at the right scale

Yamanaka et al. (2005)

PhysicalModel

Nitrate[NO3]

Advection& Mixing

SmallPhytoplankton

[P1]NO3

Uptake

Micro-Zooplankton

[Z1]

Grazing

Ammonium[NH4]

Excretion

NH4Uptake

Detritus-N[DN]

FecalPellet

Sinking Silicate[Si(OH)4]

Diatoms[P2]

Si-Uptake

N-UptakeMeso-zooplankton

[Z2]

Sinking

Detritus-Si[DSi]

GrazingFecalPellet

Sinking

Predation

Lost

Total CO2[TCO2]

BiologicalUptake

Air-Sea Exchange

Dissolution

Carbon, Silicate, Nitrogen Ecosystem ModelCoSiNE, Chai et al. 2002; Dugdale et al. 2002

Chai et al., DSR 1996

Iron

Iron

Iron

EGGSDURATION: 24 HR

MORTALITY RATE>99%

YOLK-SAC LARVELEN: 2-4MM

DURATION: 24-28 HRMORTALITY RATE 80%-98%

FIRST-FEEDERFEED BY PHYTOPL.

LEN: 4.25CM, WT: ~2 gmDURATION: 80 DAYS

AGE-1(JUVENILE)BECOME SEXUAL MATRUE

LEN: 8-10CMWT: ~10 gm

AGE-2LEN: ~20CM WT: ~55 gm

OPT TEMP: 18.6°CSPAWN ~20 TIMES/YR

AGE-2+LIFE SPAN ~3 YR

PREDATOR: SEA BIRDS, MARINE MAMMALS

Life Cycle of Peruvian AnchovyIndividual Based Model with ROMS-CoSINE

ROMS-CoSINE (12 km)

Temperature, Curre

nts,

Plankton

ROMS-CoSIN

E (12 km

)

Temperature

, Curre

nts,

Plankton

ROMS-CoSINE (12 km)

Temperature, Currents,

Plankton

ROMS-CoSINE (12 km)

Temperature, Currents,

Plankton

Need to gain better access to US ocean ecosystem scientists and their data and if data not available then determine how to collect

Case StudiesCase Studies

• The “Right” WhaleThe “Right” Whale

• The Sablefish in Gulf of AlaskaThe Sablefish in Gulf of Alaska

• Leatherback turtlesLeatherback turtles

• Productivity in the Arabian SeaProductivity in the Arabian Sea

181818

Right Whale, Wrong Right Whale, Wrong Time?Time?

• Only 350-400 right Only 350-400 right whales in N. whales in N. AtlanticAtlantic

• Recovery is limited Recovery is limited by hight mortalityby hight mortality

– Ship strikesShip strikes– Fishing gearFishing gear

• All management All management options depend on options depend on knowing where knowing where whales whales areare

Andy Pershing et al.

191919

Saving the Saving the WhalesWhales

• During spring, summer, and fall, During spring, summer, and fall, whales follow foodwhales follow food

– How can we find whale food on How can we find whale food on operational time scales?operational time scales?

– Use remote sensing of SST and Chl Use remote sensing of SST and Chl coupled with model circulation to coupled with model circulation to predict predict CalanusCalanus

Courtesy PCCS

Andy Pershing et al.

202020

Predicting Whales from Predicting Whales from CalanusCalanus

Whale Arrival Date

Whales arrive early when food is abundant

Whale

Arr

ival D

ate

Predicted Calanus Abundance

Andy Pershing et al.

Alaskan Sablefish ProjectAlaskan Sablefish ProjectAuthors: S. Kalei Shotwell & Dana H. HanselmanAuthors: S. Kalei Shotwell & Dana H. Hanselman

• Sablefish (Sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbriaAnoplopoma fimbria))– Fast growing, wide distribution, highly valuable commercial speciesFast growing, wide distribution, highly valuable commercial species– Adults generally at 200+ meters in continental slope, gullies, fjordsAdults generally at 200+ meters in continental slope, gullies, fjords

• Early life history (ELH) largely unknownEarly life history (ELH) largely unknown– Spawning at depth (400+m), larvae swim to surface, collect at Spawning at depth (400+m), larvae swim to surface, collect at

shelf breakshelf break– Juveniles move nearshore to overwinter, then offshore in summerJuveniles move nearshore to overwinter, then offshore in summer– Reach adult habitat and recruit to fishery or survey in 4 to 5 yearsReach adult habitat and recruit to fishery or survey in 4 to 5 years

• Recruitment calculated in age-structured modelRecruitment calculated in age-structured model– Recruitments are estimated as two year-oldsRecruitments are estimated as two year-olds– Estimates for most recent years are highly variable with large Estimates for most recent years are highly variable with large

uncertainty and excluded from model projectionsuncertainty and excluded from model projections

• ObjectiveObjective– Evaluate ELH data and explore integrating satellite derived Evaluate ELH data and explore integrating satellite derived

environmental time series into the sablefish stock assessment to environmental time series into the sablefish stock assessment to reduce recruitment uncertaintyreduce recruitment uncertainty

Distribution, Movements, and Behaviors of Critically Distribution, Movements, and Behaviors of Critically Endangered Eastern Pacific Leatherback Turtles: Endangered Eastern Pacific Leatherback Turtles:

Conservation Implications for an Imperiled PopulationConservation Implications for an Imperiled Population

Shillinger, Palacios, Bailey, BogradShillinger, Palacios, Bailey, BogradBlock Lab, Stanford UniversityBlock Lab, Stanford University

NOAA-SWFSC-ERDNOAA-SWFSC-ERD

Mean Kinetic Energy (cm2 s-2)

1. Turtles must negotiate gauntlet of zonal currents

Chlorophyll (mg m-3)10 year Sea-WiFS

2. Turtles move into zones of low phytoplankton density

CRD (~10cm s-CRD (~10cm s-1)1)NECC(~30cm s-NECC(~30cm s-

1) 1)

SEC (n) (~30cm s-SEC (n) (~30cm s-1)1)

EUC (~5cm s-1)EUC (~5cm s-1)

SEC (s) (~15cm s-SEC (s) (~15cm s-1)1)

Surface velocities cm Surface velocities cm s-1s-1 (CHL vs. Speed linear regression: (CHL vs. Speed linear regression: = 0.964 = 0.964 ± 0.057, ± 0.057, FF1,95771,9577 = 281, = 281, P P < 0.001, < 0.001, rr22 = 0.029) = 0.029)

INTERANNUAL TRENDS IN PHYTOPLANKTON DYNAMICS IN THE ARABIAN SEA LINKED TO EURASIAN

WARMINGJoaquim I. Goes and Helga Gomes Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, Maine, USA

Prasad ThoppilNaval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Centre, Mississippi, USA

Adnan Al Azri Sultan Qaboos University Oman

Prabhu MatondkarNational Institute of Oceanography, Goa, India

R. M. Dwivedi Space Applications Centre, Indian Space Research Organization, India

Warming of SW Eurasia mirrors the global-land signal, but recent warming anomalies are >50% larger than global temperature trends.

SW Eurasian-Land Warming

Interannual changes in chlorophyll along coast of Somalia since 1997 (Goes et al., Science, 2005 )

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

Chlor

ophy

ll (mg

m-3

)

High chlorophyll concentrations during the NEM are being caused by blooms of dinoflagellate Noctiluca miliaris (not

all chlorophyll is the same!!!!)

A similar phenomena in Monterey Bay where (as in the Arabian Sea) the nutricline is shallow and dinos vertically migrate to depth at night for nutrients and surface during day to take up carbon dioxide

Monterey Bay Time Series- El Niños during 92-93 and 97-98- Transition from El Viejo to La Vieja- The age of dinoflagellates?

Dinoflagellate regime associated with failures in fish and seabirds

Export production

Oxygen at 150 m

Gutierrez et al. - Paleopeces

Longer Centennial changes (in oxygen)

Summary, during LIA ocean off Peru high oxygen/few fish, low oxygen/high fish after

The low oxygen expanded The low oxygen expanded southward in to Chile, what southward in to Chile, what about the recent record (~50 about the recent record (~50 years)years)• CaliforniaCalifornia

• PeruPeru

Stramma, L., G.C. Johnson, J. Sprintall, and V. Mohrholz (2008), Expanding oxygenminimum zones in the tropical oceans, Science, in press. May 2

Long-Term Trends in Dissolved Oxygen off California-2.1 mol/kg/y

Zmean = -41 m Zmax = -92 m

Expansion of Low-Oxygen Habitat

(Bograd et al. in press)

10:00 (Abstract ID:2647) MondayMessié, M; Calienes, R; Ledesma, J; Barber, R T; Pennington, J T; Chavez, F P; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY AND LONG TERM TRENDS IN EASTERN PACIFIC UPWELLING ECOSYSTEMS

In situ oceanographic data from Peru

It appears as if the eastern It appears as if the eastern Pacific low oxygen regions Pacific low oxygen regions reformed after the Little reformed after the Little Ice Age and continue to Ice Age and continue to

expand todayexpand today

Are there biological indicators Are there biological indicators of this expansion?of this expansion?

The Hake off Peru has retreated and gotten more concentrated

1966-1977 1978-1987

1988-1995 1996-2001

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Hake inEcuador Merluza durante La Niña (1996)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Catchability (F

/f)

Index of hake concentración

Hake habitat restricted by oxygen

July 2005Tracy Arm (Sitka), AK

Post 1997/98 expansion of Dosidicus gigas range

British ColumbiaSept. 2005

1984

Long Beach, WAOct 2004

2004Outer Coast, BC

La Jolla Cove, CA.July, 2002

2001

2004

Including variability and Including variability and change in managementchange in management

• Has not been the norm for Has not been the norm for management of exploited management of exploited populations; typically managed using populations; typically managed using population models that do not population models that do not parameterize the environment.parameterize the environment.

• Needs to be built in early on in our Needs to be built in early on in our “new” ecosystem based “new” ecosystem based management approachmanagement approach

ConclusionsConclusions• Sophisticated observing systems, increased computing power Sophisticated observing systems, increased computing power

for modeling and improved ecosystem theory provide the for modeling and improved ecosystem theory provide the framework framework todaytoday to develop ecological forecasts useful for to develop ecological forecasts useful for societysociety

• Nature will continue to surprise (at a faster rate due to global Nature will continue to surprise (at a faster rate due to global change) and our theory will need to constantly evolvechange) and our theory will need to constantly evolve

• NASA will need to develop new direct or indirect estimates NASA will need to develop new direct or indirect estimates (and models) of ecologically relevant properties beyond (and models) of ecologically relevant properties beyond chlorophyllchlorophyll

• Better working relationships between resource managers and Better working relationships between resource managers and NASA should be fosteredNASA should be fostered

Where climate meets the global economy

Global Climate

GlobaleconomySmall Pelagic Fish

AquacultureHogs

Poultry

6Mt Fishmeal + 1.2 Mt Fish oil(from 30 Mt fish or 25 % Global

catch)