Decision support system for risk reduction in agriculture

Phase II: Soybean DSS for Eastern Paraguay and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

IAI Small Grant Program for the Human Dimensions Panama, February 2008

Outline Who we are Goals & Objectives Cooperators Approach Summary

Who are we?

Julian BaezUniversidad Nacional de Asuncion Mauricio Fernandes

EMBRAPA-CNPT

Norman BreuerUniversity of Miami

Clyde FraisseUniversity of Florida

Victor CabreraNew Mexico StateWillingthon Pavan

Universidade de Passo Fundo

Goals & Objectives Our main goal is to help producers mitigate climate risks

affecting agriculture in Eastern Paraguay and Rio Grande do Sul To conduct stakeholder assessments to better understand needs and

expectations; To evaluate the impact of ENSO phases on soybean yields using crop

simulation models; To strengthen the capacity of professionals in Paraguay, Brazil, and the

USA in agricultural systems modeling, use of participatory research methods for climate research, and interdisciplinary collaboration.

Integrate with CRN II: Land use change in the Rio de La Plata Basin: Linking biophysical and human factors to predict trends, assets impacts, and support viable land-use strategies for the future

Where will we focus our research?

Soybean cover in South AmericaSource: www.mongabay.com

Rio Grande do Sul9.92 mmt of soybeans during the 06/07 cropping season

Eastern Paraguay5.85 mmt of soybeans during the 06/07 cropping season

Our Strategy: Work with Cooperatives in Brazil and Paraguay

Cooperativa de Agricultores de Plantio Direto12,000 members

Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

41 filiaisCooplantio41 filiaisCooplantio

142 assessores técnicos142 assessores técnicos

Seminário anual da Cooplantio

Seminário anual da Cooplantio

Sananduva 5/9/03Sananduva 5/9/03

BrazilBrazil

Cooperatives – Paraguay8 cooperatives in Itapua and Alto Parana

~ 300K ha

Cooperatives - Paraguay

Agrodinamica 2006, Cooperativa Colonias Unidas

Julian Baez – Presenting results from our IAI seed projectCAPECO, Paraguay – 06/07 Cropping season

Research PlanCrop Modeling Component DSSAT CROPGRO-Soybean Model Data collection effort

Historical weather data Soils Management

ENSO climate scenarios Alternative planting dates and maturity groups Results will be disseminated to producers via a

web-based DSS

Previous Research – IAI Seed Project

Fraisse et al., 2007 – El Niño – Southern Oscillation Influences on Soybean Yields in Eastern Paraguay. International Journal of Climatology (in press).

Soybean Yields in Paraguay1981/82 – 2006/07

Translating Crop Model Outputs to Farmers

http://www.agclimate.org

Training Modeling workshop will be offered at the

University of Passo Fundo in October 2008

In Summary Well qualified multidisciplinary team Very well connected with stakeholders Technical background and experience in

participatory research and crop modeling Experienced in developing web-based DSS Ready to work but still waiting for solving

contract language issues between the IAI and University of Florida

Thank you!cfraisse@ufl.edu

Roadblocks Funds not available yet Legal language between IAI and UF not

compatible Dozens of emails between sponsored programs,

IAI, PI The end appears in sight Data collection in Paraguay will demand extra

effort

Previous Research – IAI Seed Project

Fraisse et al., 2007 – El Niño – Southern Oscillation Influences on Soybean Yields in Eastern Paraguay. International Journal of Climatology (in press).

Precipitation Probability of Exceedance(a) Planting to flowering(b) Flowering to first seed(c) First seed to maturity

(a) (b)

(c)