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Decision Making Tools
for
Disaster Risk Management
May 3rd, 2011
Sahar Safaie
Disaster Risk Management Specialist, World Bank
Data driven risk assessments and decision making tools
i.e. quantification of annual expected losses
CAPRA:
Multi-hazard risk
model platform, technical
assistance for investment
programs
PCRAFI:
Multi- hazard
Risk Assessment/
Risk Financing
Mozambique:
Flood Risk Management
Nepal:
Hazard Risk Management
Morocco:
Multi-hazard Risk Assessment
CCRIF:
Risk Financing
Eastern Caribbean
Risk Assessment
Total Projects: 40 Total Approved Budget: $ 21 M
Mekong Region:
Flood and Drought
Risk Mitigation
The necessary information and methodologies required
to make informed decisions to reduce the risk is not
available to the decision makers
If that information does exist it is too often unused or
underutilized
Climate Change
Adaptation
Analysis of Financial
Exposure & Risk
Financing
Immediate damage assessment
Scenario analysis for
emergency preparedness
Cost Benefit analysis for
mitigation and prevention
investments
Infrastructure design
Territorial planning
Visualization of
hazard and risk
Risk Modeling
Set of Tools to Assist
Decision Making
Immediate Damage Estimation
Damage Distribution
Calculation
Surface Response
Spatial Distribution
Physical damage
Human losses
Bogotá Accelerograph Network (RAB)
Cost Benefit AnalysisRetrofitting of Critical Infrastructure
Schools and Administration
Bogota Disaster Vulnerability Reduction program
Schools Retrofitted 2004-2008 : 201Total Budget: $160 Million
• Sovereign Risk Financing
- Capital reserves- Catastrophe Bonds- etc.
• Insurance Premium Calculation
- Underwriting- Reinsurance- Reserve Calculations
Financial Analysis of Risk
Eastern Caribbean:
• St. Vincent and Grenadines
• St. Lucia
• Grenada
Using Risk Modeling to support the
projects at National and Sub-regional
level:
• Pilot Program for Climate Change
Resilience (PPCR)
• Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project
(DVRP)
World Bank in the Eastern Caribbean
Applications:
I. Education sector vulnerability reduction strategies
II. National disaster management strategies
III. Site specific (critical facility) risk assessment and
vulnerability reduction strategies
IV. Land use and physical planning based on multi hazard
risk assessment
V. Coastal zone management
World Bank in the Eastern Caribbean
Tools for Understanding Risk
Disaster Risk Assessments
Tools for decision-making
that address the clients
questions
CAPRA
Risk
in a Box
Dissemination of Lessons Learned
Role of Regional Institutions
Similar tools will be available in the region:
• CCRIF hazard maps
• UWI Risk Atlas (Jamaica, Barbados, Grenada)
• Global Earthquake Model (GEM)
Other donors/Development agencies are working on
other projects
A Regional Experience
Open Risk Data Initiative
Sharing data is a critical step in
reducing risk
Freedom for others to innovate
with this data
Work with countries to enable
them manage and share their data
We need to lead by example to
create a global culture of open
data
Regional
Institutions
UWI
DRRC
Seismic RC
Governments
Donors
Education
Capacity
Data
Management
Disaster Risk Management Practice-
Incorporating Risk Modeling
CDEMA
CCRIF
Communities