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8/6/2019 Decision Ma Kin
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Decision Making
Phases of Decision Making Simons
Model
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Decision Making
Decision making is a process of choosing among
alternative courses of action for the purpose
of attaining a goal or goals.
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Decision-making is a dynamic process. It is
complex and at times ambiguous.
Decision-makers encounter problems when
searching for information and they may work
with delayed feedback of results, uncertainty,
ambiguity and sometimes conflict.
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Why are Decisions Made?
Decisions are made to solve problems or take
advantage of opportunities.
Decisions are made when it is perceived thatsomething needs to be done.
Decisions should be timely.
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Problem-solving model
SenseGather data
ListenExamine
Problem (Re) Definition
Question
Finding ideas
Finding and evaluating Solutions
Implement and evaluate solution
(Maybe prototype a solution).
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Analysing the Decision
Structured vs unstructured
At a particular management level
Operational (short term) Tactical(medium term)
Strategic (Long term)
Routine and recurring vs infrequent
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Structured
The procedures forfinding the best solution
exist.
Routine and repetitive.
Situation fullyunderstood.
e.g. select the product mix to
obtain the maximum profit
given labour and budgetaryconstraints. (goal
programming)
Travelling salesman problem.
Unstructured
Necessary information may
not be available.
Objectives are hard to
quantify and identify
Difficult to develop a model
of the situation.Creative Decision.
One-shot.
Focus of computersystems ison information presentation,
summary and support analyses
and collaboration rather than on
finding an optimal solution.
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The Decision Making Process
(Simons model)
Intelligence
Identify a problem or opportunity.
Design Find and analyse possible courses of action.
Choice
Decide which action to take.
Implementation Acting on the decision
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Intelligence
Examine the environment to
identify problem situations or
opportunities.
Intelligence can be further divided
into
Detection
Definition
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Intelligence
1. Problem Identification/detection
2. Problem Classification - try and place problem indefinable category.
Programmed Problems- well structured problems forwhich models have been developed.
Nonprogrammed Problems- novel and nonrecurrent
3. Problem Decomposition divide problem into
subproblems4. Problem Ownership
Formal problem
statement
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Problem identification/Detection
May start with a gut feeling that something iswrong or that there is an opportunity.
Stimuli
Internal performance measures E.g. tax intake below budget.
Client reaction
E.g. complaints from patients in the health service.
Other stakeholders
E.g.
External factors
Changes from the external environment.
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Measuring and Monitoring
What might you need to keep an eye on to
know if there is a problem?
Within the organisation
Outside the organisation
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System Control
Information from the system itself:
Feedback (positive, negative)
Feedforward
Information from the environment
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Definition
Once you are aware of a problem or
opportunity need to define it.
Is it a problem or a symptom?
Is it within your scope?
Who should be responsible?
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Problem or Symptom
Need to look beyond the initial problemdescription to see what lies behind it.
Symptom can have many different causes.
Fixing the wrong cause will not cure the symptom.
This can involve the collection of largeamounts of data.
Keep asking why? May not always be possible to get the
information you want.
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Examples
Write down as many causes as you can think of :
Staff turnover is too high.
Exam results are too low
You are using too many lightbulbs.
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Problem Ownership
Who owns these problems?
Climate change.
Oil is a finite resource and the price will probably
go up in the next couple of years.
Interest rates will most likely go up in 2012
The standard of third level education is declining
Describing the problem in terms that you havecontrol over is key.
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Who Should Decide
The broader the scope of the problem thehigher the level of management involvementin the decision making process.
When discussing problems it is important thatsomeone or some group is assignedresponsibility.
The person needs to be at an appropriatelevel.
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Design
Design is the part of the process where both
the possible alternatives and the criteria for
comparing them are identified.
Identify alternatives.
Determine which ones deserve analysis and
analyse them.
Can create models to analyse the alternatives(normative or descriptive).
Decide how the choice will be made.
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Identify Alternatives
Can be a creative process.
Brainstorming can be useful.
Models can be used to predict the outcome of
alternatives
Factors: certainty, risk, uncertainty
Scenarios -worst case, best case
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Criteria for Decision
Before making the choice it is a good idea to
decide what the criteria for choosing should
be.
What are the goals, objectives.
What importance is attached to each objective.
Are you looking for the best solution or a
satisfying one (good enough).
What level of risk is acceptable.
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Group Decision Making
Where groups are making a decision choosing
the criteria first can ease the decision making
process.
Get agreement on criteria.
Rank alternatives.
Decision is made.
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Choice
Here the actual decision is made.
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Is your problem solved ?
Intelligence
Design
Choice
Implementation:
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} Decision MakingProblem
Solving
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Implementation
Problem is not solved until the decision is
implemented.
Implementation can sometimes be the mostdifficult phase of all.
Sometimes a good decision can lead to a poor
outcome.
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Summary
Intelligence
Problem versus Symptom
Assign ownership.
Design
Identify Alternatives
Decide on the criteria
Choice
Make the choice.
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