Data Aetna Decision

Payoff Table Low Med Highs1 s2 s3 s4 s5 s6 s7 s8 s9 s10

Invest d1 3 6 12Alternative d2 5.5 5.5 5.5

d3d4d5d6d7d8d9

d10

Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3

Conditional Probabilities of Additional Informations1 s2 s3 s4 s5 s6 s7 s8 s9 s10

low P(I1|.) 0.9 0.05 0.05med P(I2|.) 0.05 0.8 0.1high P(I3|.) 0.05 0.15 0.85

P(I4|.)P(I5|.)

A B C D E F G H I J K L M

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Results Aetna Decision

Optimal decisions with additional information

Best Decision UnderNo Info. low med high

d* d1 d2 d1 d1EV 7.2 5.5 6.340909 10.41176

Prob. 0.22 0.44 0.34

EVPI 0.5EVSI 0.34 EV with SI 7.54

Efficiency of SI 68.00%

A B C D E F G H I

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Calculation

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Calculations d* d1 d2 d1 d1 d1Max 5.5 6 12 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7.2 5.5 6.3409 10.412 0

s1 s2 s3 s4 s5 s6 s7 s8 s9 s10 EV EV1 EV2 EV3 EV4d1 3 6 12 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7.2 3.9545 6.3409 10.412 0d2 5.5 5.5 5.5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 0d3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0d4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0d5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0d6 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0d7 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0d8 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0d9 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0

d10 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0Prob. 0.2 0.5 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.22 0.44 0.34 0

Revised ProbsP1 0.82 0.11 0.07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PI SIP2 0.02 0.91 0.07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EV with 7.7 7.54P3 0.03 0.22 0.75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EV of 0.5 0.34P4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Efficiency 68%P5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conditional Probs Do not change anything on this sheet.I1 0.9 0.05 0.05 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I2 0.05 0.8 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0I3 0.05 0.15 0.85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0I4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0I5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Joint Prob TableI1 0.18 0.03 0.02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.22I2 0.01 0.4 0.03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.44I3 0.01 0.08 0.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.34I4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0I5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.2 0.5 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Calculation

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d1 d10 Min 2.5

EV5 Regret Table Max0 2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.50 0 0.5 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.50 3.5 4 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 3.5 4 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 3.5 4 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 3.5 4 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 3.5 4 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 3.5 4 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 3.5 4 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 3.5 4 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100

Do not change anything on this sheet.