Decarbonization on Supply & Demand SidesHydro Nuclear Wind Solar Other 48% solar and wind 64% renewables 29% fossil fuels Decarbonization on the supply side. 11 February 15, 2019 Decarbonization

Decarbonization on Supply & Demand SidesG20 CSWG Session 6: The Role of Renewable

Energy in Addressing Climate Change

Miho Kurosaki

February 15, 2019

1 February 15, 2019

Sharing global and local knowledge

New York

Washington, D.C.

San Francisco

São Paulo

250BNEF professionals in

17 locations*

Munich

Beijing

Hong Kong

New Delhi

Singapore

Sydney

TokyoMilan

Zurich

London

* Part of the Bloomberg LP with

19,000 employees in 176

locations.

Seoul

Mexico City

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2 February 15, 2019

Sustainable materials

& circular economy

Strategies for a cleaner future

Solar Wind Storage Decentralized

energy

Frontier power Heat Impact on

power & utilities

IoT technologies

& platformsAdvanced analytics

& automation

Digital business

model evolutionDigitialization of

energy, industry

& supply chains

Electrified

transportMobility

services

Connected &

autonomous

vehicles

Impact on

transport

Impact on

oil & power

Carbon Power markets Oil & products

Gas & LNG Chemicals Metals

3D printing &

green manufacturing

Composites, bioplastics

& new materials

Impact on industrials,

utilities & manufacturing

Policy

Economics

& forecasts

Sustainability

Innovation

& tech

Finance

3 February 15, 2019

Contents

Decarbonization on the supply side 4

Decarbonization on the demand side 13

4 February 15, 2019

Decarbonization on

the supply side

Technology, economics and policy

5 February 15, 2019

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

20

00

20

01

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02

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20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Cumulative GW

Small-scalePV

Utility-scalePV

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Source: BloombergNEF

Wind and solar are at terawatt scaleGlobal wind and solar installations

Decarbonization on the supply side

6 February 15, 2019


Storage is also accelerating

Global energy storage installations

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cumulative GW

EMEA

AMER

APAC


7 February 15, 2019

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

$/kWh

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

euro / W

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

$/W

Solar PV module prices

Onshore wind turbine prices

Lithium-ion battery prices

Transitions driven by technology

-94% since

2008

-37% since

2008

Source: BloombergNEF.

-85% since

2010


8 February 15, 2019

Annual manufacturing capacity

… thanks to a rapid scale-up in manufacturing capacity…

Solar PV Cells Wind Turbines Li Battery Cells

2010 2018 2010 2018 2010 2018

+415% +42% +390%


9 February 15, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF Note: Levelized cost of electricity (solar, wind, gas, coal) calculations are for utility-scale assets in the U.S. and exclude incentives such as the ITC

and the PTC. Utility PV assumes tracking. EV price is for a medium segment vehicle in the U.S

Transitions characterized by tipping points

Solar costs vs. coal & gas Wind costs vs. coal & gas

Utility PV

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

$/MWh (2017 real)

Coal

CCGTOffshore wind

Onshore wind

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

$/MWh (2017 real)

CCGT

Coal


10 February 15, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF, IEA

50% wind and solar generation by 2050

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Historical world power

generation mix

NEO2018 power generation

mix

Coal

Gas

Oil

Hydro

Nuclear Wind

Solar

Other

48% solar and wind

64% renewables

29% fossil fuels



Decarbonization on

the demand side

Corporations and customers



Power is decentralizing –consumer choice

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Germany

Italy

Australia

Other Europe

United Kingdom

France

Japan

United States

South Korea

Decarbonization on the demand side


Source: BloombergNEF, Bloomberg Terminal Note: 2016 for all companies

Large companies have country-sized electricity demand

29 TWh Ireland

26 TWh

25 TWhSlovakia

27 TWh

9 TWhKenya

10 TWh

Annual electricity consumption

The world’s largest corporations have country-sized electricity demand. A good strategy on how to procure reliable,

low-cost and low-carbon electricity is critical to their business operations and profitability.

60 TWh Romania

58 TWh

43 TWhHong Kong

42 TWh



Source: The Climage Group

The RE100: pledging for 100% renewable energy use



Source: BloombergNEF, Bloomberg Terminal, The Climate Group, company sustainability reports Note: Charts are for RE100 members that have disclosed electricity

demand. Certificate purchases includes non-U.S. green tariff programs, and are assumed to step down 10% each year. Onsite generation and contracted wind and solar

purchases are assumed to remain flat through 2030. Regional breakdown of shortfall estimated based on each company’s share of revenue by region. See this report’s

accompanying excel for company-level data on the RE100.

37 48 59 71 84 97

110

125

140

156

173

190

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2017 19 21 23 25 27 29

TWh

Electricity demand

Renewable electricity demand

Projected renewables shortfall for the RE100

050MWh Offsite wind (contracted) Offsite solar (contracted)

Certificate purchases (estimated) Onsite generation (contracted)Renewable electricity shortfall Electricity demandRenewable electricity demand


https://www.bnef.com/InsightDownload/19999/excel


Source: Apple

Supply chains will multiply corporate procurement effect

Leading Apple suppliers are some of the

largest companies in the world…

In addition to greening their own electricity consumption, many corporations are asking their suppliers to do the

same. This will multiple and spread the impact of corporate renewable energy purchasing to new markets.



Source: World Bank

Grids are less reliable in emerging markets

9

14

16

33

65

75

Tanzania

India

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Nigeria

Bangladesh

Pakistan

8

4

1

41

16

25

6

2

6

11

4

21

Outages in a

typical month

Losses due to electrical

outages (% of sales) Electricity from a

generator (%)



Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, PGS Consulting. * Diesel capacity is estimated based on customs data

Fossil fuels capacity added in non-OECD countries

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Gigawatt

Wind

Solar

Other clean

Gas

Diesel*

Coal



Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, PGS Consulting

Many emerging markets still rely heavily on diesel generators

6

4

3

4

4

11

18

6

3

19

27

117

Bangladesh

Nigeria

Philippines

Pakistan

Malaysia

Egypt

Vietnam

Thailand

South Africa

Indonesia

Brazil

India

12

13

20

26

31

36

37

40

45

55

141

288

Bangladesh

Nigeria

Philippines

Pakistan

Malaysia

Egypt

Vietnam

Thailand

South Africa

Indonesia

Brazil

India

Generation capacity on

the grid (GW)5-year generator sales relative

to on-grid capacity additionsDiesel generator sales

2010-15 (GW,

conservative estimate)

Net on-grid generation

capacity additions 2010-15

(GW)

5

17

7

3

3

4

5

3

14

12

9

10

Bangladesh

Nigeria

Philippines

Pakistan

Malaysia

Egypt

Vietnam

Thailand

South Africa

Indonesia

Brazil

India

79%

398%

209%

73%

82%

35%

25%

51%

468%

64%

33%

8%

Bangladesh

Nigeria

Philippines

Pakistan

Malaysia

Egypt

Vietnam

Thailand

South Africa

Indonesia

Brazil

India



Countries with C&I solar projects in Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Countries colored in yellow indicate that there are known C&I solar projects plus installed capacity that developers reported to BNEF.

Kenya

15MW

Tanzania

0.7MW

Namibia

7MW

DRC

0.05MW

Nigeria

20MW

Ghana

7MW

Burkina

Faso

15MW

Senegal

0.8MW

Eritrea

7.5MW

Zimbabwe

0.5MW

Gambia

0.2MW

South

Sudan

0.5MW



Source: BloombergNEF, Climatescope. Note: Tariffs for Ghana are as of April 2018. The others are as of 2017. The range of C&I solar cost estimates for Kenya, Ghana and

Nigeria, and assumes a project starts operation in 2019.

Economics of solar vs commercial grid electricity tariffs

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

Eth

iop

ia

Za

mb

ia

DR

C

Ma

law

i

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ta

nzan

ia

Bo

tsw

an

a

Nig

eri

a

Cam

ero

on

Mo

za

mb

iqu

e

SS

A-a

ve

rag

e

Cote

d'Ivo

ire

Ke

nya

Uga

nd

a

Rw

an

da

Se

ne

ga

l

Gh

an

a

$/kWh

Cost of C&I solar in Sub-Saharan Africa



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Documents

Decarbonization on Supply & Demand SidesHydro Nuclear Wind Solar Other 48% solar and wind 64% renewables 29% fossil fuels Decarbonization on the supply side. 11 February 15, 2019 Decarbonization