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Decarbonising Freight Transport
Professor Alan McKinnon
Logistics Research Centre
Heriot-Watt University
EDINBURGH, UK
European Responsible Care Conference
Prague 22nd October 2009
Extent of Arctic summer ice cover
million km2
most pessimistic
projection summer ice-
free Arctic by 2100
Some models now
projecting ice-free Arctic
by 2015-2020
Greenland Ice Melt
Source: European Environment Agency
25% of all fresh water frozen in the Greenland ice sheet /
complete melt would raise sea-level 7m
Exposure to Sea Level Rise of 7 metres
Source: http://flood.firetree.net
12 Ecological Tipping Points
Source: Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
5.3
8.9
19
4.3
0.90
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
USA UK Sweden China Africa
Metr
ic t
on
nes o
f C
O2 p
er
pers
on
National Variations in Annual CO2 Emissions per Capita (2006)
Source: International Energy Agency
2 tonnes
by 2050
Global per capita limit to keep within 450 ppm of CO2
to keep temperature rise within 2o C by 2100
2006 emissions
International aviation & shipping*
UK non-CO2 GHGs
Other CO2
Industry (heat & industrial processes)
Residential & Commercial heat
Domestic transport
Electricity Generation
* bunker fuels basis
2050 objective
159 Mt CO2e
695 Mt CO2e
77% cut (= 80% vs. 1990)
2006 emissions
International aviation & shipping*
UK non-CO2 GHGs
Other CO2
Industry (heat & industrial processes)
Residential & Commercial heat
Domestic transport
Electricity Generation
* bunker fuels basis
2050 objective
159 Mt CO2e
695 Mt CO2e
77% cut (= 80% vs. 1990)
77% cut (= 80% vs. 1990)
UK CO2e Reduction Targets
Source: Committee on Climate Change
5-year interim carbon budgets
Carbon trajectory to 2050
34% reduction in CO2 relative 1990 by 2020
Forecast Growth of Freight Transport Activity by Region 2000-2050
Source: World Business Council for Sustainable Development - Mobility 2030 report
CO2 emissions per tonne-km also increasing due to switch from rail and water-borne transport to trucks and planes
+150%
freight transport = 8% of energy-related CO2 emissions worldwide
Decarbonisation Scenario for UK Road Freight in 2050
Amount of freight movement stable at 2007 level
Road share of freight tonne-kms reduced from 64% to 50%
% of truck kilometres run empty reduced from 27% to 17%
Average weight-based load factor up from 59% to 70%
40% improvement in energy efficiency
30% reduction in the carbon content of the energy
76% reduction in CO2 emissions
Combination of radical changes in key parameters required
Ignores complex inter-relationship between freight transport and other activities
Analysis by Maja Piecyk
Stabilisation Wedges
applied to freight transport operations
Business-as-Usual trend
Carb
on e
mis
sio
ns
2050
Adapted from Pacala and Socolow, 2004
electrification of transport with
low / zero carbon electricity
80%
increase fuel efficiency
improve vehicle loading
freight modal shift
reduce transport demand
Decreasing Carbon Intensity of Electricity Generation
2006 20202010 2030 2050
gC
O2 p
er
kW
h
Source: Committee on Climate Change, 2008
Projection for the UK
Direct transmission to freight transport services:
Increase in % of electrified rail infrastructure
(from 52% in EU in 2005)
Trolley trucks for inter-urban road network?
Electrification of Road Freight Transport
Batteries - improving storage capacity, performance, recharge times etc
- development of new value chain for batteries
hybrids plug-ins / all electric
Hydrogen – heavy energy use in production, compression, liquification etc
- need new infrastructure for storage and distribution of hydrogen
Energy Storage and Carrier Systems for Vehicles
‘Renewable energy is better distributed by electrons than by hydrogen’ (Bossel, 2004)
Stabilisation Wedges
applied to freight transport operations
Business-as-Usual trend
Carb
on e
mis
sio
ns
2050
Adapted from Pacala and Socolow, 2004
electrification of transport
low / zero carbon electricity
80%
increase fuel efficiency
improve vehicle loading
freight modal shift
reduce transport demand
Supply Chain Decarbonisation Measures
Source: World Economic Forum / Accenture
Reduction in congestion13
Increased home delivery12
Near-shoring / relocalisation11
Reverse logistics / recycling10
Freight modal shift9
Training and communications8
Enable low carbon production7
Improved packaging design6
Increased energy efficiency of buildings5
Optimisation of logistics networks4
Localised sourcing of agricultural produce3
Slowing down product flow2
Clean vehicle technology1
Reduction in congestion13
Increased home delivery12
Near-shoring / relocalisation11
Reverse logistics / recycling10
Freight modal shift9
Training and communications8
Enable low carbon production7
Improved packaging design6
Increased energy efficiency of buildings5
Optimisation of logistics networks4
Localised sourcing of agricultural produce3
Slowing down product flow2
Clean vehicle technology1
Advances in Vehicle Technology
Teardrop Dolphin
Drag coefficient 0.35
(average car)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Engin
e
Aerody
namic
s
Tyres
Aux
iliar
y eq
uipm
ent
Trans
mis
sion
Tota
l
En
erg
y (
kW
h)
base level after target reduction
Source: US 21st Century Vehicle Partnership
turbo-charging
anti-idling devices
low rolling resistance tyres
lightweighting etc.
Less potential for raising energy
efficiency of European trucks
Source: US 21st Century Vehicle Partnership
US Class 8 Truck
Shipping
3.3% of greenhouse gases today
Forecast growth of CO2 from ships
(with 33-50% increase in fuel efficiency)
69% reduction in CO2 per
container carried relative to
current average container ship
NYK Super-Eco Ship 2030
1bn
2008
2.4bn3.6bn
Source: Committee on Climate Change 2008
15-30% in carbon constrained world of 2050
2050
Weight of goods produced / consumed
Weight of goods transported by road
Road tonnes-lifted
Road tonne-kms
Total vehicle-kms
carbon intensity of energy
energy consumption
CO2
modal split
average handling factor
number of links
average length of haullength of links
average load on laden trips
average % empty running
Vehicle operation / fleet managemnet
energy efficiency
Similar analyses for other modes
timing of deliveries
aggregate key parameter - decarbonisation lever
Decarbonisation Framework for Logistics
supply chain structure
asset utilisation
energy efficiency
carbon content of energy
modal splitmodal split
warehousing /
materials handling
space /
equipment use
Levels of Logistical Decision-making
STRATEGIC: numbers, locations and capacity of factories and warehouses
Restructuring of logistical systems
COMMERCIAL: trading links to suppliers, customers and sub-contractors
Reconfiguring supply chains
OPERATIONAL: scheduling of production and distribution operations
Rescheduling of freight flows
FUNCTIONAL: day-to-day management of the logistics function
Changes in the management of freight transport
Interaction between decisions at different level determines
volume of freight traffic and related externalities
Green measures implemented at lower levels offset by
effects of higher level strategic decisions
Decarbonisation Options
• Reduce freight transport intensity
• Switch to greener transport modes
• Improve vehicle utilisation
• Increase fuel efficiency
• Reduce carbon intensity of fuels
Source: European Environment
Agency – TERM 2007 report
Ways of Reducing Freight Transport Intensity
Decentralisation / Re-localising
Reducing demand for freight movement
May not reduce energy / CO2 on a life cycle basis
Swap arrangements
for basic chemicals
Retail distribution centre assembly plant supplier warehouse
Pre off-shoring Post off-shoring
Export of carbon-generating activities reducing EU’s ‘carbon footprint’
Embedded carbon in imported products
Off-shoring production and distribution
Decarbonisation Options
• Reduce freight transport intensity
• Switch to greener transport modes
• Improve vehicle utilisation
• Increase fuel efficiency
• Reduce carbon intensity of fuels
% of total inland freight tonne-kms in EU 25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
% o
f to
nn
e-k
ms
road
rail
inland waterway
72%77%
21% 17.5%
7% 5.5%
Source: Eurostat
Variations in CO2 Intensity by Freight Transport Mode
Assumptions about average load factors ?
Line-haul or door-to-door ?
Primary energy source of electricity ?
Inclusion of infrastructure development / maintenance ?
Passenger / freight split (bellyhold air and ferries) ?
Assessing the carbon benefits of freight modal shift
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Heavy truck (
>38 tonnes
gross) - average
load
Heavy truck (
>38 tonnes
gross) - full
loaded
Short-sea
container ship
Rail Coastal ferry
(large 4500
deadweight
tonnes)
Deep-sea
container ship
Pipeline
gC
O2
per
ton
ne
-km
Petrochemical Sites
Existing Pipelines
Petrochemical Sites
Existing Pipelines
Concentrated Petrochemical Sites
Pipelines
Concentrated Petrochemical Sites
Pipelines
Concentration of Chemical Capacity and Integration of Pipeline Network
Source: Pratorius, 2004
Decarbonisation Options
• Reduce freight transport intensity
• Switch to greener transport modes
• Improve vehicle utilisation
• Increase fuel efficiency
• Reduce carbon intensity of fuels
Factors constraining vehicle loading
Regulatory
Market-related
Inter-functional
Demand fluctuations
Unreliable delivery schedules
Vehicle size and weight restrictions
Goods handling requirements
Incompatibility of vehicles and products
Lack of knowledge of loading opportunities
Infrastructural
Poor coordination of purchasing, sales and
logistics
Limited storage capacity at facilities
Health and safety regulations
Equipment-related
Just-in-Time delivery
Just in Time Deliveries – Too Carbon Intensive?
Some suppliers have adapted better than others to
the disciplines of just-in-time delivery
Relaxation of JIT
Switch to slower, lower carbon modes
Greater load consolidation
Lower speed limits
Relaxing Maximum Truck Length and Weight Limits
Longer and Heavier Vehicles
Potential benefits of 25.25 metre 60 tonne LHVs
• Replace 3 trucks with 2
• Reduce vehicle-kms and accident involvement
• Achieve fuel and CO2 savings 7%-25%
• Cut operating cost by 15-20%
Excludes diversion of freight from other modes and possible traffic generation effect
European Rail Industry Perspective on LHVs
CER – European Rail Association
Dimensions of Supply Chain Collaboration
Collaboration with LSPs
Horizontal
collaboration
Vertical collaboration
Core
individual
company
capability
Between companies at the same level in the supply chain:
within same sector in different sectors
Between companies at different levels in the supply chain
Creation of partnerships
Contractual relationship already exists
http://www.cefic.be/files/Publications/
supply_chain_excellence.pdf
Decarbonisation Options
• Reduce freight transport intensity
• Switch to greener transport modes
• Improve vehicle utilisation
• Increase fuel efficiency
• Reduce carbon intensity of fuels
Impact of Fuel Efficiency Measures (US data)
0 2 4 6 8
Maximum speed reduction (65-60 mph)
Idling reduction (automatic engine idle)
Driver training and monitoring
Improved Tractor Aerodynamics
Improved Trailer Aerodynamics
Wide-base tyres
Tare weight reduction
Low friction engine lubricants
Low friction drive train lubricants
Automatic tyre inflation systems
% fuel savingSource: Ang-Olsen and Schroeer
UK: 7% fuel efficiency gain
Eco-driving
Environmental Trade-off
CO2 versus other emissions
Truck engine
energy efficiency rating
Source: MAN AG Sept 2007
Euro 6 standard for heavy duty vehicles will carry 2-7% CO2 penalty
Source: Volvo
Effect of Worsening Traffic Congestion on Fuel Efficiency
United States: relieving congestion at 437 key bottlenecks would save
4.1 bn gallons of truck fuel over 10 years
45.2 million tons of CO2 over 10 years
source: American Trucking Association
Decarbonisation Options
• Reduce freight transport intensity
• Switch to greener transport modes
• Improve vehicle utilisation
• Increase fuel efficiency
• Reduce carbon intensity of transport energy
Biofuels: the rise of bio-methane
EU well-to-wheel
comparison of CO2
emissions from
biofuels
C02 emissions per km
Could displace 8% of transport fossil
fuel in the UK
Adapting the Chemical Supply Chain to the Effects of Climate Change
7 metre sea level rise
How much chemical production and storage capacity is at risk of flooding
Source: http://flood.firetree.net
Conclusions
• Broad range of decarbonisation measures and incentives available
• At an operational level, close correlation exists between CO2 and cost reductions
• Still much ‘low hanging fruit’ to be harvested in the ‘logistics garden’
• Exploiting self-financing green measures will not be enough
• Need stronger green commitment / mindset – especially at strategic level
• Freight transport / logistics will eventually be covered by emissions trading scheme
• Adapting to inevitable climate change poses major logistical challenges
To be published in March 2010
Logistics Research Centre
Heriot-Watt University
EDINBURGH UK
http://www.sml.hw.ac.uk/logistics
Contact details
www.greenlogistics.org