KURDEDE PARIS

N°257

AUGUST 2006

INSTITUT

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MASSUD BARZANI, PRESIDENT OF IRAQI KURDISTAN,

DECLARES THAT NATIONAL RECONCILIATION MUST NOT BE

ACHIEVED AT THE EXPENSE OF KURDISH RIGHTS

N 29 August the President of

Iraqi Kurdistan, Massud

Barzani, stated in a commu-

niqué that he supported

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s

National Reconciliation policy on

condition that it did not call Kurdish

rights into question. “We are

putting all our weight behind the

National Reconciliation process,

today as we have done since the

fall of the old regime”, insisted Mas-

sud Barzani. “But we observe that

certain parties have laid down con-

ditions to the reconciliation process,

such as amending the Constitution

and going back on federalism. We

are supporting the reconciliation

process, but it must not be carried

out at the expense of the Kurdish

people”, continued Mr. Barzani.

This statement came following the

national reconciliation meeting with

600 tribal chiefs attended by Prime

Minister Nuri al-Maliki that took

place in Baghdad on 26 August to

check the daily acts of violence that

are bathing the country in blood.

“You have gathered here under the

banner of national reconciliation.

No Iraqi can be excluded from this

project, at this stage — we need all

of them, Sunni, Shiite or Christian”,

declared Mr. Maliki in opening the

conference, held in a hotel in the

centre of Baghdad. “Iraq will not be

rebuilt by violence but by dialogue.

To free our country from the pres-

ence of foreign troops we need

unity and a national consensus”, he

added before the sheikhs who had

come from all over the country. At

the end of the meeting the meeting

the participants signed “a pact of

honour” promising, in the frame-

work of the government’s reconcili-

ation policy, to put an end to the

violence that is daily drenching the

country in blood. The tribal chiefs

meeting in Baghdad promised “to

preserve the country, to bring an

end to the carnage and population

displacements as well as to arrest

Contents

l MASSUD BARZANI, PRESIDENT OF IRAQI KURDISTAN, DECLARES THATNATIONAL RECONCILIATION MUST NOT BE ACHIEVED AT THEEXPENSE OF KURDISH RIGHTS

l BAGHDAD: SADDAM HUSSEIN’S TRIAL FOR THE GENOCIDE OF KURDS

l AS VIOLENCE OF ALL KINDS IS INTENSIFYING, THE PKK PROPOSES ACEASE-FIRE TO THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT

l IRAQ: JULY WAS THE BLOODIEST MONTH SINCE THE START OF THEWAR IN 2003

l HASANKEYF: START OF THE BUILDING OF THE CONTROVERSIAL DAMTHAT WILL ENGULF 12,000 YEARS OF HISTORY IN KURDISTAN

l DAMASCUS: A VISIT BY THE TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTER

l IRAN CARRIES OUT A SERIES OF ARMED FORCES MANOEUVRES

l AS WELL AS …

O

• 2 • Information and liaison bulletin n° 257 • August 2006

the different communities. “Most of

the Iraqis don’t want it (…) The

Iraqis don’t consider themselves as

Sunnis, Shiites or Kurds but as

Iraqis, as descendents of Mesopo-

tamian civilisation”, he said.

Moreover, on 2 August, the Italian

Foreign Minister, Massimo D’Alema,

announced that Italy had decided to

spend 30 million euros “in the next

few months to strengthen the

multinational commitment to the

reconstruction of Iraq”. “Italy sup-

ports the “International Compact”

project jointly launched by UNO and

the Iraqi government”, insisted Mr.

D’Alema following a meeting in

Rome with Iraqi Deputy Prime Min-

ister Barham Saleh. This project,

launched on 27 July with World

Bank support is a contract of objec-

tives aimed at creating a framework

to enable the reconstruction and

development of Iraqi economy and

its integration into regional and

world economy. “We also intend to

take an active part in it to strength-

en relations between Iraq and the

European Union in the context of

international management of the

process of stabilisation and peace”,

Mr. D’Alema pointed out. Even

though the new Italian government,

led by Romano Prodi, has decided

on the total withdrawal of its troops

from Iraq by the end of autumn

“this does not mean that Italy is

completely withdrawing from Iraq,

where it will remain present

through economic, political and cul-

tural cooperation”, the Minister

added. Mr. Saleh, for his part,

thanked Italy for “its continued sup-

port and its sacrifices in Iraq”,

where 31 Italian troops have died in

three years. “Besides, the depar-

ture of Italian troops does not mean

the withdrawal of Italy from the

Iraqi scene, where Rome will

remain committed regarding its

political and economic aspects”,

added the Iraqi Kurdish leader.

the takfiris (Sunni extremists)”,

stated Sheikh Fa’al Neamah, read-

ing the document finally drafted

byn the participants. During this

meeting, a Sunni Sheikh represent-

ing a tribe from Anbar (West) and

Salaheddin (North of Baghdad)

Provinces, Abderrazak Suleiman,

voiced a series of demands, the

chief of which were the maintenance

of Iraqi unity, the amendment of the

Constitution (too federal for his

taste), stopping the “deBaassifica-

tion” aimed at former members of

Saddam Hussein’s party. Federalism

is strongly opposed by the Sunnis

who are afraid of finding themselves

isolated in more barren provinces

while the Kurds and the Shiites

share the oil resources of the coun-

try between them.

Tribes are the backbone of the tra-

ditional organisation of Iraqi Arab

society. Of varying sizes, sub-divid-

ed into clans, led by Sheikhs, the

tribes unite individuals sharing kin-

ship bonds, living in the same

region but not necessarily of the

same faith. The Secretary of State

for Dialogue, Akram al-Hakim, con-

sidered that “national reconciliation

will succeed if the different groups

manage to reach a compromise”.

For his part, the head of the

Supreme Council for the Islamic

Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), one of

the principal Shiite parties, called on

the activists of his party to “convince

people” the advantages of federal-

ism. “The best insurance for our

people would be to put federalism to

work in the Provinces of the Centre

and the South, following consultation

with the people”, stated Mr. Hakim.

In Washington 15 August, the White

House spokesman, Tony Snow,

declared for his part that US Presi-

dent, George W. Bush, rejected the

idea of partitioning Iraq as a solu-

tion for putting an end to the vio-

lence shaking the country. “H

doesn’t back it (…) It’s not achiev-

able”, pointed out Tony Snow, refer-

ring to a proposal, that keeps

recurring, of dividing the country

into distinct States on the basis of

BAGHDAD: SADDAM HUSSEIN’S TRIAL

FOR THE GENOCIDE OF KURDS

HE first hearing of the Iraqi

criminal High Court of the

Anfal trial opened in Bagh-

dad’s high security Green

Zone on 21 August. This is

Saddam Hussein’s second trial and

follows on the Dujail case in which

he was tried for the massacre of

Shiite villagers in the early 80s. The

verdict for this trial is expected in

the autumn. Saddam Hussein, the

former dictator, is being charged

with genocide for having ordered

the Anfal (“war booty” from a verse

in the Qoran) campaigns that cau-

sed over 182,000 deaths in Iraqi

Kurdistan in 1982. He refused to

plead at the opening of his trial.

Seven leaders of the old regime

were in the dock with him, including

“Chemical Ali”. Saddam Hussein is

accused of having ordered the

“Anfal” campaign and being the

person most responsible for the

genocide, along with Ali Hassan al-

Majid, better known as “Chemical

Ali” because of his propensity for

using chemicals. It was the latter

who was made responsible for car-

rying out the orders of his cousin,

on his father’s side, to “settle the

Kurdish question once and for all”.

Sabir al-Duri, Director of Military

Intelligence under Saddam Hus-

sein’s regime, is charged with being

one of the instigators of the Anfal

plan and one of its main actors of

its execution. Sultan Hashim al-Tai,

Saddam’s former Minister of Defen-

ce was operational commander in

the field of the campaign. Hussein

Rashid al-Tikriti, assistant operatio-

nal commander and a member of

the Hussein clan, is accused of

having actively taken part in the

operations while Farhan al-Juburi,

Director of Military Intelligence for

Eastern Iraq is accused of having

actively taken part in the opera-

tions.

T

n° 257 • August 2006 Information and liaison bulletin • 3 •

Public Prosecutor, Munkith al-Farun,

listed the eight successive cam-

paigns of Operation Anfal, between

22 February and 6 September

1988. “A considerable number of

chemical weapons were used, thou-

sands of villages razed to the

ground and children were separated

from their parents. Women were

imprisoned, raped and tortured.

Only the pride and dignity of the

people survived — all the rest was

destroyed”, declared the Prosecutor,

who estimated that about 182,000

people were killed. The Public pros-

ecutor tried to show that the dicta-

tor was guilty of genocide through

ordering this operation, in the

course of which 4,500 Kurdish vil-

lages were destroyed. “It is time for

humanity to know (…) the extent

and scale of crimes committed

against the people in Kurdistan”,

declared the Public Prosecutor.

“Entire villages were razed to the

ground, as if killing the people was

not bad enough”, he added, show-

ing photographs of the corpses of

women and children. This new trial

will see between 60 and 120 plain-

tiffs and witnesses for the prosecu-

tion appearing before the court,

which will also have to examine

over 9,000 documents. Many Kurds

have been waiting for this opportu-

nity, as with the Shiites for the

Dujail trial. Several thousands of

survivors and relatives of the Anfal

victims demonstrated in

Suleimaniyah on Monday, calling for

Saddam Hussein’s head.

In the main towns of Iraqi Kurdis-

tan, the population observed five

minutes silence in memory of the

victims. For those Kurds who sur-

vived the campaign of repression,

this day represents a victory — but

also revives cruel memories. “I am

impatiently waiting to see him come

before the court to satisfy my thirst

to see him humiliated”, said Abdal-

lah Mohammed, who lost two sons,

three daughters, three brothers and

three sisters-in-law in the Anfal

campaign of repression. Those who

survived the air raids and the

artillery bombardments were killed

by the army, according to Human

Rights defence organisations. The

Kurdish leaders hope to make this

trial a high point of national cathar-

sis. The Minister for Human Rights,

Yussef Mohammed Aziz, points out

that 32 lawyers are due to go to

Baghdad to represent the victims

and that 42 Kurdish witnesses have

been appointed to represent their

people. Despite the reservations of

some observers, the Kurdish lead-

ers say they are convinced that

they can prove the connections

between the accused and the hor-

rors committed. Kamal Othman

Khoshaw, Public Prosecutor of Kur-

distan, states that his tram has

found proof of Saddam’s personal

responsibility. “Amongst the docu-

ments is one coming from the

Armed Forces General Command to

the General Command of the opera-

tion. It is signed by all the Chiefs

and some members of the Party

who were involved”, he insisted.

The Director of the Anfal Centre in

Dohuk, Iraqi Kurdistan, Ali Bandi,

considers that Saddam Hussein

wanted “to destroy the Kurdish

people” but recalls that many West-

ern countries “sympathised” with

the fallen dictator. The Anfal Centre

seeks both to collect information

and documents on the campaigns of

repression in Kurdistan and also to

help the victims and their families.

“We say that Saddam Hussein is

guilty — but that he is not the only

one guilty. Saddam Hussein

enjoyed the sympathy of many

countries. Germany, in particular,

helped him to stay in power. Dutch

firms took part — moreover they

have been condemned by the Dutch

Courts, which we thank for this.

The Iraqis used chemical weapons

against us, but many major powers,

like the United States, kept silent.

We paid the price of the cold war.

The French sold arms to Iraq and

cooperated a great deal with it.

They sympathised with the Iraqi

regime. However, we also remem-

ber Danielle Mitterrand, who

defended the Kurds. There is a

street here in Dohuk named after

her and all Kurds have a little place

in their hearts for Danielle Mitter-

rand”.

There is also the problem of dis-

placed persons. There are two kinds

of displaced persons, those whose

villages had been “Arabised” by the

old regime and those whose villages

had been rased during the Anfal

campaign. Mussa Ali Bakir, Head of

the Internally Displaced Persons

Office (IDP) for Dohuk and Mossul

states that “the problem of dis-

placed persons goes far beyond just

that of their numbers. … Saddam

displace populations and burned

down villages, destroying the eco-

nomic fabric but also the family

cells and the conditions for any pos-

sible return”. “The international

lenders only understand part of the

problem. We must resettle the dis-

placed people in their villages, but

this is not easy. Security must be

guaranteed, the fighting must be

stopped, including between Kurds,

remove all the mines (Editor’s

Note: 20 million mines are said to

have been dispersed across Kurdis-

tan). Former villages must also be

made accessible by road and hous-

es worthy of the name must be

built”, Mussa Ali itemised.

According to analysts, the evidence

of the massacre of Kurds at the

instigation of fallen dictator Saddam

Hussein is solid, but the Special

Court that is trying the case is ill

equipped for a trial on an issue as

complex as genocide. “The evidence

against the old regime is solid but,

in view of the events during the

trial for the Dujail massacre, the

Court does not seem equipped to

conduct procedures of such an

importance against a Head of

State”, declared Nehal Bhutta, of

the New York based Human Rights

defence organisation, Human Rights

Watch (HRW). “The proof of geno-

cide lies in the creation by then

Iraqi government of forbidden

zones in which all the inhabitants

are to be executed”, points out

Nehal Bhutta. “The argument that

• 4 • Information and liaison bulletin n° 257 • August 2006

all the inhabitants were rebels is

not a credible one as children were

amongst the tens of thousands who

died in this operation”, he added.

However, the prosecution seems to

have gained maturity and trans-

parency: in particular, the six pros-

ecution witnesses who came to the

bar during the third hearing did so

unveiled. Human Rights organisa-

tions had criticised the excessive

use of anonymous witnesses, hid-

den behind a screen and with their

voices artificially disguised, during

the Dujail trial.

Around 1986 wide areas of the Kur-

dish region had been freed from

control by a central government

increasingly under pressure

because of its war with Iran. Early

in 1987, Saddam Hussein charged

his cousin, Ali Hassan al-Majid, with

the task of bringing the region back

under central government control.

The latter set up “forbidden zones”

in the region and regarded all their

inhabitants as “insurgents”. The vil-

lagers were transferred to areas

more easily controlled by the Bagh-

dad while the “forbidden zones”

were bombed and then invaded.

According to the Human Rights

defence organisation Human Rights

Watch, these campaigns were

aimed at exterminating the Kurdish

people and not simply counter-

insurgency operations as the former

regime claimed. “It must be

stressed that the murders were not

only committed during the counter-

insurgency operations: detainees

were killed several days or weeks

after the armed forces had reached

their objectives”, states HRW in a

detailed report on the Anfal cam-

paign, dated 1993, translated and

published in French by Karthala

publishing under the title of “Geno-

cide en Irak — La campaign d’Anfal

contre les Kurdes”. “In the end, the

issue of intention is at the heart of

the concept of genocide”, stresses

the report, which details documents

and eye witnesses showing that this

intension did exist, according to the

organisation.

The character of Ali Hassan al-Majid

is central to this case. He is the

subject of several accusations, in

particular regarding the use of poi-

son gasses, of mass executions and

of setting up detention camps so as

to subdue Kurdistan. Ali Hassan al-

Majid was Saddam Hussein’s hench-

man in the dirty jobs. Saddam Hus-

sein’s right hand man, he was regu-

larly called upon whenever it was a

matter of smashing the slightest

protest movement against the old

regime. A man of appalling brutali-

ty, he held the post of general sec-

retary of the Baath Party in the

Northof Iraq from March 1987 to

April 1989, co-ordinating, at the

same time, the Army, the police

forces and the military Intelligence

engaged in repressing the Kurds. In

May 1987, he began an implacable

scorched earth policy in Kurdistan,

with a vast operation of evacuating

the population and the livestock,

forcibly transported to near the Jor-

dan and Saudi Arabian borders, far

from the traditional areas of Kurdish

settlement. However, he was also

the butcher of the 1991 Shiite

uprising, as Commander of the

Republican Guards divisions in the

South of the country. During the

1990s, he directed a campaign of

forced deportation of the inhabi-

tants of the marchlands (Southern

Iraq), the population of which

dropped from a million to 40,000.

He also supervised the occupation

of Kuwait. Thus, from August to

November 1990, he was the blood-

thirsty governor of that country,

invaded by the Iraqi Army, before

resuming, in 1991 his position of

Minister of Local Government,

which he had held since 1989. In

February 1996, without the slight-

est qualms, Mr. Majid executed his

own nephew, Hussein Kamel, on his

return to Baghdad, after having

defected to Jordan and denounced

the regime the year before. Mem-

ber of the Revolution Command

Council (RCC, the highest organ of

the Baath regime), Chemical Ali

was appointed head of the Southern

Military region with the task of

defending it against the Americano-

British offensive, launched on 20

March. In January 2003 he visited

Damascus, then Beirut, in the con-

text of a tour of Saddam Hussein’s

emissaries aiming to put forward

Iraq’s point of view, one and a half

months after the beginning of the

UN inspection on the country’s dis-

armament.

The trial will not deal with the most

notorious attack, that on the town

of Halabja, in March 1988, in which

5,000 people are estimated to have

died from gassing. This will be

treated as a separate case.

AS VIOLENCE OF ALL KINDS IS INTENSIFYING,

THE PKK PROPOSES A CEASE-FIRE TO

THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT

N 23 August, the Kurdistan

Workers’ Party (PKK) pro-

posed a ceasefire to the Turk-

ish government. Murat Karay-

ilan, one of the politico-mili-

tary chiefs of the PKK declared that

“in response to many requests from

the government of Iraqi Kurdistan

and to statements of the American

State Department, we are ready to

observe a ceasefire and to chose a

peaceful manner of settling the

question of the Kurdish people in

Turkey”. “We are ready for a cease-

fire as from 1 September, World

Peace Day. Turkey must be ready

to respond to this in a flexible man-

ner”, added Murat Karayilan, who

declared he was the N°2 man in the

Iraqi PKK. “We k now that Turkey

has expansionist and nationalist

ambitions and wants to put pres-

sure on the Iraqi Kurdish leaders.

We do not expect them to attack

us, but we are ready to defend our-

selves”, he continued, referring to

the thousands of Turkish troops

massed along the border.

O

n° 257 • August 2006 Information and liaison bulletin • 5 •

On 11 August the German-based

pro-Kurdish press agency, Firat,

had reported that Abdullah Ocalan

had reported that Abdullah Oclan

had announced that he might call

on his activists to declare a cease-

fire if Ankara displayed “a sincere

approach” for a resolution fo the

conflict. “It is possible to stop the

shedding of blood (…). If the gov-

ernment displays a sincere position

we will do what is in our power. I

will call for a ceasefire and the

clashes will cease”, the PKK chief is

said to have declared. These state-

ments have, apparently been sent

to the agency by Ocalan’s lawyers

who, according to this source, are

said to have met him on his island

prison of Imrali, where he has been

serving a life sentence for treason

since 1999. “Our demands are very

clear (…). Our children must be

educated in their mother tongue

and (be able) to listen to the radio,

watch television and read the

papers” in Kurdish, Abdullah Ocalan

is said to have declared. The PKK

head is also said to have declared

that, if Ankara took “certain mea-

sures and gave certain guarantees”

following such a ceasefire, the

fighters would withdraw to Iraq or

another country. “At a final stage,

the arms would be laid down for

good, in the event that a legal

guarantee were given”, he is said to

have stressed, in what seems to be

an allusion to a demand for an

amnesty for all members of the

PKK. “A democratic dialogue is nec-

essary (to achieve) am permanent

solution (…). You cannot finish with

the PKK by begging the United

States and by cooperating with Iran

and Syria”, A. Ocalan is said to have

considered.

For his part, on 12 August the Iraqi

Prime Minister, Nuri al-Maliki, insist-

ed that Iraq would not be a PKK

sanctuary, during a telephone con-

versation with his Turkish opposite

number, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,

according to the Turkish Press

Agency Anatolia. Mr. Maliki is fur-

ther said to have insisted that his

government would continue to work

with the United States and Turkey

in the common struggle against the

PKK. On 2 August, the Iraqi Presi-

dent, Jalal Talabani, had insisted

that Iraq “Will do everything possi-

ble to prevent the PKK Kurdish sep-

aratist organisation from attacking

Turkey from Iraqi soil”. “I personal-

ly intervened on the issue of the

Kurdistan Worker’s Party and called

the Turkish representative to assure

him that the Iraqi government has

seriously decided to see to it that

Iraqi territory ceases to be used by

armed groups aimed at neighbour-

ing countries”, declared the Iraqi

President in the course of a Press

conference. “Iraq will do everything

possible to prevent the PKK from

attacking Turkey from Iraqi soil”, he

continued, insisting that he had

decided to order the closing of the

PKK offices. A tripartite meeting

between Iraqi, American and Kur-

dish leaders is due to take place on

this subject shortly, Mr. Talabani

indicated.

Turkey has long complained at the

inaction of Baghdad and Washing-

ton regarding the PKK. In July it

had threatened cross-border mili-

tary intervention against PKK

camps in Kurdish territory if Bagh-

dad did not act. On 30 August the

Turkish Foreign Ministry welcomed

the appointment of retired general

Joseph W. Ralston as Washington’s

“special envoy” for co-ordinating

the struggle against the PKK. The

communiqué issued considered that

this appointment constituted an

“opportunity” for taking “concrete

steps” in the struggle against the

PKK. General Ralston has served as

Supreme Commander of NATO and

several times visited Turkey, which

is a member of that organisation.

At least 98 PKK activists and 66

members of the security forces died

in the violent actions that have

increased this year, according to an

AFP tally. Thus a civilian who was

collecting firewood in an area of

woodland was killed and two sol-

diers were wounded in a clash that

took place on 24 August near the

town of Bitlis. The day before, the

local media reported that five mem-

bers of the PKK had surrendered to

the Turkish forces in Silopi, in Sir-

nak province. A communiqué from

the provincial governor indicated

that a total of 69 PKK activists had

surrendered to the Turkish forces in

Sirnak. Moreover, on 20 August the

Anatolia press agency reported that

two PKK Kurdish PKK fighters were

killed in fighting in Sivas province,

in central Turkey. Two other Turkish

soldiers were killed on 15 August

fighting the PKK on the heights of

Gabar, in Sirnak province. On 13

August, two policemen were killed

and another wounded by Kurdish

fighters at Tunceli, using a remote

controlled mine. This incident

occurred near the anti-riot police

station in the centre of the city of

Tunceli. A Turkish warrant officer

was killed on 7 August in his house

at Beytussebap, about 50 Km from

the Iraqi border, while a fighter was

blown apart when the device he

was handling exploded, in the same

region, according to the local

authorities. The day before, three

soldiers were killed and eight other

people injured during attacks by

alleged members of the PKK in a

rural area of Gumushane province

(North-East Turkey). The provincial

governor, Veysel Dalmaz, stated

that PKK members enticed an army

vehicle into an ambush during

which the driver was wounded and

lost control of the vehicle. Earlier in

the day, a remotely controlled mine

had exploded as a goods train

passed by, between the provinces

of Bingol and Elazig, wounding 4

security guards.

In addition to the PKK, another rad-

ical group, the Hawks of Kurdistan

Freedom (TAK) on 29 August,

claimed responsibility for a triple

attack at a seaside resort in South-

West Turkey the day before that

had wounded 21 people, including

10 Britons, and also another in

Istanbul, on the same day, that had

wounded six. The TAK also claimed

another explosion that occurred the

day before in the tourist resort of

• 6 • Information and liaison bulletin n° 257 • August 2006

Antalya (Southern Turkey) that

caused three deaths and about

twenty injured. In the statement

making their claim, the TAK stated

that they had carried out their

attack on Antalya in reprisal for

conditions of confinement to which

Abdullah Ocalan was subjected. On

their Internet site, the TAK also

indicated, on 23 August, that their

members had started forest fires in

at least 17 areas to protest against

the “fascist attitude” of the Turkish

authorities in Turkish Kurdistan. The

TAK had also, on 15 August,

claimed responsibility for a bomb

attack carried out the day before in

a tourist quarter of Istanbul that

wounded three people. A low pow-

ered bomb exploded in the tourist

quarter of Sultanahmet. The device,

a “percussion bomb” (a term used

to describe devices aiming at mak-

ing more noise than victims) was

placed under a bench in Sultanah-

met Square, which is surrounded by

the Mosque-Museum of Saint

Sophia, the Sultanahmet Mosque

and the Ottoman Topkapi Palace.

“We assume full responsibility for

this action (…) whose consequences

could have been much bloodier”,

the Hawks of Freedom for Kurdistan

pointed out in a communiqué

reported by Firat news agency. The

explosion took place on the eve of

the anniversary of the PKK’s

launching of armed struggle on 15

August 1984.

Moreover, on 5 August the TAK

claimed responsibility for two bomb

attacks that caused 17 injured.

One bomb, placed before the

entrance to the Diyarbekir regional

offices of the Republican People’s

Party (CHP) damaged the building

without causing any casualties,

according to the authorities. Earlier,

TAK had claimed two simultaneous

bomb attacks in front of a bank in

Adana (Southern Turkey), which

injured 17 people. In a commu-

niqué published on their Internet

site, the TAK made the point that

their attack was an act of reprisal

against “the fascist treatment to

which President Apo and our people

are being subjected”. “Our actions

will become more and more violent

every day”, TAK threatened. The

branch of the Oyakbank bank next

to the explosion, which is owned by

the Turkish Officers Pension Fund,

was targeted because it is answer-

able to the Army the communiqué

stressed.

Furthermore, for the last year the

Province of Iranian Kurdistan has

been the scene of armed confronta-

tions between Iranian troops and

activists of PEJAK, an Iranian Kur-

dish group close to the PKK. A daily

paper, Kayhan, reported on 21

August that five Iranian Kurds,

members of the Kurdistan Democ-

ratic Party of Iran (KDPI) and four

PKK fighters had been arrested and

three others wounded during a

clash. “Five members of the Kurdis-

tan Democratic Party were arrested

in the Miandoab region (Western

Azerbaijan)” declared Colonel Hos-

sein Rashidi, one of the chiefs of

the security forces in Western Azer-

baijan, a province of North-West

Iran with a mainly Kurdish popula-

tion. He added that “weapons and

documents have been seized”.

According to this officer, “three

members of the PKK were targeted

by the armed forces after the death

of a police officer and a member of

the Guardians of the Revolution,

killed by mines laid in the region”.

Colonel Rashidi did not specify

where these incidents took place.

Rostam Judi, a PEJAK leader, indi-

cated, for his part, that two civilians

had been killed on 18 August by

Iranian artillery fire on villages in

Iraqi Kurdistan that were sheltering

Iranian Kurdish fighters. “The Iran-

ian forces shelled (…) eight villages

near Qandil, killing two civilians and

forcing many of the inhabitants to

leave”, he declared. In March, April

and August, Iranian artillery has

targeted positions held by this

organisation, causing four deaths

and considerable material damage

in this mountainous area of Iraq

that borders on Iran.

N its 16 August issue, the New

York Times, basing itself on fig-

ures from the Iraqi Health Min-

istry and various morgues

throughout the country, suggest-

ed that the month of July was the

most murderous since the begin-

ning of the war in Iraq, in 2003,

with a 9% increase compared with

June and twice as many deaths as

in January. Thus in Baghdad, the

Ministry of Health announced that

the capital’s morgue had received

“the bodies of 1,850 people in the

month of July, most killed by gun-

fire”, as against 1,350 in June. Ten

civilians died every day in Iraq, vic-

tims of the sectarian violence that

is shaking the country, of bomb

attacks in market places, of attacks

by regular militia wearing official

uniforms or, very often, executed

by bullets. Thus, for the month of

July, there was a total of 3,438 vio-

lent deaths. This despite the securi-

ty plan for Baghdad, launched mid-

June by the Iraqi Prime Minister,

Nuri al-Maliki, with the deployment

of over 50,000 members of the

Iraqi security forces and US sol-

diers. The failure of this plan has

led to the launching of a “second

phase”, for which an additional

5,000 US troops have been sent to

the capital, considered a priority

area. “As Iraqis and, especially, as

Shiites we have become the targets

of the takfiris (Sunni extremists)

and Saddam Hussein supporters”,

declared Aziz Zein al-Ali, one of the

spokesmen of the supreme Council

of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq

(SCIRI), one opf the most impor-

tant Shiite parties. The US Ambas-

sador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, has

accused senior leaders of the

IRAQ: JULY WAS THE BLOODIEST MONTH

SINCE THE START OF THE WAR IN 2003

I

n° 257 • August 2006 Information and liaison bulletin • 7 •

regime of being linked with the

Sunni or Shiite militia. “A great deal

of the responsibility lies with the

Iraqi politicians, most of whom

have links with the militia”.

Despite assurances by the US Army

that the situation in the capital has

improved, at least 77 people, as of

30 August, have been killed in Iraq

— 24 of them in a bloody bomb

attack aimed at a street market in

the centre of Baghdad. A double

bomb attack later hit Karrada, a

business quarter in the centre of

Baghdad, killing three people,

including a policeman, and injuring

14 others in a queue at a service

station. In other attacks throughout

the capital, particularly in the Dura

(Southern) and Amariyah (Western)

quarters, ten peopler were killed.

However, according to the US Army,

violence has diminished by 46% in

Baghdad since the beginning of

August, as compared with previous

months. Since 7 August, nearly

30,000 men, American and Iraqi,

have been conducting house-to-

house searches in the most danger-

ous quarters, beginning with Dura,

one of the most dangerous, and

Gazaliyah (Northern Baghdad). This

strategy seems to have born fruit in

these districts. The security plan

also envisages the setting up of dia-

logue between Sunni and Shiite

community representatives and

measures of economic develop-

ment. Despite exceptional security

measures, on 20 August Shiite pil-

grims were the target of attacks as

they passed through the Sunni

quarters of the capital to visit the

mausoleum and celebrate the

anniversary of the death of Mussa

al-Kazim, the seventh of the twelve

Shiite Imams, persecuted and killed

in 799. His mausoleum lies in a

mainly Sunni quarter on the West

bank of the Tigris, and twenty pil-

grims were killed and 300 wounded

in the course of a number of sepa-

rate attacks as hundreds of thou-

sands of Shiite pilgrims paid tribute,

in Baghdad, to their revered Imam.

The violence has not diminished in

the rest of the country, either in the

“Sunni death triangle” to the South

of Baghdad, where corpses of peo-

ple who have been kidnapped and

killed are regularly found, or in the

Baaquba region, to the North of the

capital, where armed men maintain

a reign of terror over the civilians.

In the South, tension is also great

following the violent clashes on 15

August between the police and fol-

lowers of the radical Shiite Ayatol-

lah, Mahmud al-Hassani in the Shi-

ite holy city of Kerbala, where a

three-day curfew was decreed.

In Kurdistan, two anti-Kurdish sui-

cide attacks killed 10 people and

injured 50 early in the evening of

27 August in Kirkuk. The two

attacks, using car bombs, occurred

within a few seconds of one anoth-

er, in the Iskan quarter of Kirkuk.

One of the attacks was aimed at a

house linked with the memories of

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani’s fami-

ly. The second occurred in front of

the house of Colonel Ahmed Abdal-

lah, a local police chief. Earlier in

the day a suicide car bomb attack

on the offices of the Patriotic Union

of Kurdistan, Jalal Talabani’s party,

killed a guard and injured 16 peo-

ple. Four police, moreover, were

shot down about fifty kilometres

south of Kirkuk in the course of the

day. “This attack bears the hallmark

of Baath and Ansar al-Sunna (an

extremist Sunni group linked to al-

Qaida) terrorists, who see great

danger from the PUK”, opined Jalal

Joha, a local official of this Kurdish

party.

Furthermore, nine people, five

peshmergas and four civilians, were

killed and 51 injured in a suicide

attack in Tamim, one of the quar-

ters to the West of the city of

Mossul, near one of the biggest

offices of the PUK. The week

before, these same offices had been

sacked by followers of a Basra Shi-

ite sheikh, a certain Yaqubi. They

had been incensed by an article by

a PUK leader in the Kurdish daily Al-

Ittihad, which had accused Yaqubi

of inciting “hatred against the

Kurds”. In a communiqué, Jalal Tal-

abani had regretted this article,

which could have wounded some

people’s feelings, adding that he

had not been advised of its publica-

tion.

HASANKEYF: START OF THE BUILDING OF THE

CONTROVERSIAL DAM THAT WILL ENGULF 12,000

YEARS OF HISTORY IN KURDISTAN

N 5 August Turkey began the

construction of a huge dam

on the Tigris, despite violent

criticisms aroused by this

project that will destroy a

major historic site force the dis-

placement of several thousands of

Kurds. Prime Minister Recep Tayip

Erdogan took part in the inaugura-

tion of the Ilisu Dam construction

site, near Dargecit, 45 Km from the

Syrian border by laying the first

stone. The project has been very

controversial from its very inception

in the late 70s. At the heart of the

criticisms is the little town of

Hasankeyf, on the banks of the

Tigris — a prosperous city in

ancient Mesopotamia, then the last

stronghold of Saladin’s Kurdish

Ayyubide dynasty, but today pover-

ty stricken and in danger of losing

much of its land under the lake

formed by the Dam. The many

opponents of this project, which

also includes the building of a

hydroelectric power station, fear

not only the disappearance of a

unique historic site, where Assyrian,

Roman, Kurdish and Ottoman mon-

uments stand side by side but also

of a traditional style of life that its

Kurdish and Arab population has so

far preserved.

To stop the project, some activists

have petitioned the European Court

for Human Rights (ECHR) in Stras-

bourg and have called on interna-

tional lenders to suspend their

O

• 8 • Information and liaison bulletin n° 257 • August 2006

loans to the consortium charged

with its construction. On the other

hand, the supporters of the project

consider that it will bring to this

poor region the means of develop-

ing its economy, in particular by

enabling the creation of 10,000

jobs, the development of fishing

and the irrigation of arable land.

According to Mr. Erdogan, this pro-

ject is the proof of Ankara’s deter-

mination to improve the living con-

ditions of the Kurds in Turkey. “The

step we are making today shows

that the South-East is lo longer

neglected (…). This Dam will bring

substantial benefits to the local

population”, he declared in the

course of the ceremony.

Planned for completion in 2013, the

Ilisu Dam will become the country’s

second largest water reservoir and

the fourth largest hydroelectric

power station, with an annual pro-

duction of 3.8 million Megawatts.

Its cost is estimated at 1.2 billion

euros. According to some officials,

80% of the Hasankeyf archaeologi-

cal sites, including tombs and some

of the underground houses, already

worn by the weather and years of

neglect, will remain above the

water level. The rest, and particu-

larly some mosques, a public bath

and the remains of an ancient

bridge across the Tigris, will be

transferred to an open air museum,

which will become, according to Mr.

Erdogan’s expressed wish, “a tourist

centre”. The government is deter-

mined to preserve the Hasankeyf

heritage, added Mr. Erdogan, recall-

ing that 66 million euros had been

allocated to archaeological research,

already well under way. Some oppo-

nents, for their part, consider that

even if the monuments are trans-

ferred, the integrity of the site and

of the original countryside will be

irredeemably altered. The govern-

ment also envisages to pay compen-

sation to the inhabitants of nearly

200 villages that will be expropriat-

ed and to build a new town to house

the population of Hasankeyf. “The

Dam will destroy 12,000 years of

history”, laments Abdulvahap Kusen,

the Mayor of Hasankeyf and mem-

ber of a civic group opposed to the

project. “Neither I nor anyone else

will go to live in the new locality. If

Hasankeyf is destroyed we will

migrate to the big cities”, he

declared.

In 2001, the British Building and

civil engineering company, Balfour

Beatty PLC had withdrawn from the

project, citing “the environmental

commercial and social complexity”.

The Italian building company

Impreglio did the same. The official

responsible for the hydraulic works,

Veysel Eroglu, for his part consid-

ered that “the Dam will give life to

the region” and that “it should have

been done thirty years ago”. But

Maggie Ronayne, an archaeologist

from the Galway National University

of Ireland, who has been working

on the site since 1999 explains:

“This Dam is a weapon of mass cul-

tural destruction — not only

because of the great number of

monuments but also of the culture

of the people here”.

The Ilisu Dam is part of the Project

for South-Eastern Anatolia (GAP)

that envisages the building of 22

dams and 19 hydroelectric power

stations on the Tigris and Eur-

phrates. The GAP is sharply criti-

cised by Iraq and Syria, who accuse

Turkey of expropriating the water of

these two rivers that flow from Kur-

distan to the drought-stricken lands

of the South.

DAMASCUS: A VISIT BY THE TURKISH

FOREIGN MINISTER

N 22 August, the Turkish For-

eign Minister, Abdullah Gul,

made a working visit to Syria

for discussions with Syrian

leaders on the situation in

the Lebanon and the Palestinian

territories. Mr. Gul met Syrian Presi-

dent Bachar al-Assad as well as his

Syrian opposite number Walid al-

Mu’allem, about the Lebanese issue

and the problem between the Israel

and the Palestinians. On 20 August

Mr. Gul had visited Israel and the

Palestinian territories to seek a

solution to the Palestinian problem.

During his meeting with the Pales-

tinian leader, Mahmud Abbas, Mr.

Gul pointed out that “efforts must

be made in the region to enable a

permanent peace”. “The kidnapped

Israeli soldiers must be freed and

the Palestinians detained in Israeli

prisons must also be freed” the

Minister declared, adding: “Such

acts could establish a new climate

of peace in the region”.

For his part, the German Foreign

Minister, Walter Steinmeier, had

cancelled a visit to Syria planned

for 15 August in protest at a speech

by President al-Assad that praised

the Hezbollah and threatened

Israel. Damascus confirmed that

the head of the German Foreign

Office had cancelled a visit to Syria,

but cited “divergent views” regard-

ing UN Resolution 1701, calling for

an end to hostilities between Israel

and the Hezbollah to explain his

change of plan. The German For-

eign Minister cancelled his visit to

Syria declaring that the remarks

made by President Bachar al-Assad

constituted a “negative contribu-

tion”. “We say (to the Israelis) that

after having tasted humiliation in

the latest battles, your arms will

not protect you — neither your

planes, nor your missiles or even

your nuclear bombs … Future gen-

erations in the Arab world will find

means of beating Israel”. The Syri-

an head of State had cried out. The

Syrian Foreign Minister did not

made any reference to Mr.

Steimeier’s remarks about Bachar

al-Assad’s speech, limiting himself

to stating that the visit had been

cancelled at Germany’s request

because of “divergent views

between the two parties on their

evaluation” of the UN ceasefire

plan.

O

n° 257 • August 2006 Information and liaison bulletin • 9 •

IRAN CARRIES OUT A SERIES OF ARMED

FORCES MANOEUVRES

N 1 August Iran began a

series of major Army

manoeuvres throughout the

country, supposedly due to

continue “for an unspecified

time”. They are held “to present

the new defence doctrine” of the

country, according to the Army’s

spokesman, General Mohammad

Reza Ashtiani, as quoted by the

public television service. This exer-

cise was announced at a time when

the international community had

given Iran till the end of August to

suspend its uranium enrichment as

well as just after the ceasefire in

the Lebanon, that Teheran consid-

ered a victory for the Hezbollah

and, indirectly good news for Iraq.

As the General explained, these

manoeuvres reflect the present

level of tension in the region: “We

must be prepared to face any threat

and we must be an example for

other countries” and “our Army is

ready to foil any plots against the

Islamic Republic of Iran”. These

great manoeuvres involve 12

infantry regiments. In April Teheran

had launched the most important

military exercises to date, and

claimed to have tested several high-

tech weapons, including missiles.

At this time, when tension is at its

height in the Near East, the Turkish

Foreign Ministry obliged two Iranian

planes flying to Syria to land in

Turkish Kurdistan to search them —

apparently for rockets or other mili-

tary equipment. On 16 August, the

mass circulation daily, Hurriyet,

reported that Iranian planes had

been forced to land at Diyarbekir

Airport on 27 July and 8 August but

that no military equipment had

been found. Namik Tan, the Foreign

Ministry spokesman confirmed the

facts, adding that Turkey was only

acting in conformity with interna-

tional regulations. “Turkey is a

country that is careful to act in the

context of the rules of international

agreements”, he declared. “The

incident took place in this context”.

The spokesman added that rela-

tions between were not damaged

by the incident. “There are no prob-

lems between the two countries”,

he added.

O

AS WELL AS …

• THE TURKISH AUTHORITIES

SEIZED OVER A THOUSAND

BOOKS TRANSLATED INTO KUR-

DISH BY A SWEDISH NOVELIST.

On 24 August, the Swedish agency

TT reported that over a thousand

Kurdish-language copies of a famous

series of children’s books by the

Swedish novelist Astrid Lindgren

were seized by the Turkish authori-

ties in Istanbul. A cargo intended for

libraries in five Kurdish areas in

Turkey was seized because it was

not accompanied by the required

authorisation from the Ministry of

Education and also lacked customs

documents, according to the author-

ities cited by TT.

The 1,208 books, including 25 differ-

ent “Fifi Brindacier” titles (a heroine

created by Astrid Lindgren) hqad

been shipped in Sweden on 7

August by the Komak association,

which is active in promoting educa-

tion in the Kurdish population of

Turkey. The adventures of Fifi

Brindacier, a freckle faced girl with

wearing a comforter, have been

translated into 85 languages and

published in over a hundred coun-

tries.

• THE TURKISH PRIME MINIS-

TER SUES A CARICATURIST WHO

HAD DRAWN HIM IN THE FORM

OF A TICK. Turkey’s Prime Minis-

ter, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has

suede a caricaturist and a weekly for

a cartoon in which he is shown in

the form of a tick. Mr. Fatihj Shahin,

a barrister, has stated that he had

filed a complaint with an Ankara

Court, on 1 August, against the

satirical magazine Leman and the

caricaturist Mahmet Cagcag for

insulting the Prime Minister following

the publication of the incriminated

cartoon in the 6 july issue of the

satirical weekly.

Referring to a tick-borne hemorrhag-

ic fever that had killed about twenty

people this yeqar in Turkey, Mahmet

Cagcag had drawn Mr. Erdogan in

the form of a tick, biting the head of

a man and written underneath that

he was “making Turkey suffer”. Mr.

Sahin explained that the Prime Min-

ister was demanding 25,000 Turkish

lire (13,000 euros) damages.

The lawyer specified that no date

had yet been set for the trial but

that it bould probably begin when

the legal term began in September.

This procedure is the fourth under-

taken by Mr. Erdogan against carica-

tures. The Prime Minister has lost all

three previous cases. In April 2004

he had sued the Left wing daily

paper Evrensel for a caricature

showing him as a horse, mounted

by one of his advisors. In February

2005, he sued the daily Cumhurriyet

for a caricature depicting him as a

cat entangled in a ball of wool, then

a week later the satirical magazine

Penguen that had drawn him as a

whole series of animals as a gesture

of solidarity with Cumhurriyet.

These legal actions aroused a wave

of criticisms in the Turkish press,

which questioned the sincerity of the

head of the government when he

stated that he was determined to

increase freedom of expression in

Turkey to ease the country’s entry

into the European Union.

• THE IRANIAN MINISTER OF

CULTURE COMMITS HIMSELF TO

“PURIFYING” THE CULTURAL

SECTOR IN IRAN. On 11 August,

the Conservative Iranian Minister of

Culture and Islamic Guidance,

Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi,

committed himself to eliminating the

“signs of immorality in society” and

• 10 • Information and liaison bulletin n° 257 • August 2006

to “purifying” the cultural sector. He

also announced that a reduction in

the number of press agencies autho-

rised to work in Iran. “Unfortunately

we are seeing inappropriate signs of

immorality in present day society”

declared Mr. Saffar-Harandi in a

speech broadcast on the State radio.

“However you now have my word

that I will commit myself to a purifi-

cation of the cultural atmosphere”,

he added. “In the near future, we

will nom longer see an unhealthy

cultural production of books, films,

music, happenings etc.”, he contin-

ued in this speech addressed to a

crowd just before the Friday prayer.

The Minister then attacked the

growing number of press agencies

by announcing his intention to

reduce them. “I have no other

choice than to restrain them, since

investment has gone more to quan-

tity than to quality,” he stressed. He

explained that 11 press agencies

were working with a permit from his

ministry, that eight others were

waiting to receive it and that

between 50 and 60 had begun pro-

cedures to secure one.

Mr. Saffar-Harandi took office last

summer following the election of the

ultra-conservative Mahmud Ahmed-

injad as President. Last autumn the

authorities had launched a campaign

against what they perceived as a

“Western cultural invasion” in the

State media. But, in fact, this only

resulted in a wider spread of tradi-

tional or “soothing” music in broad-

casts. According to Mr. Saffar-Haran-

di, the supervision of the cultural

sector is a government prerogative

that “must not be yielded to soci-

ety”. “No one has the right to clash

with the ideals of the people and the

system, including in the cultural

domain” because other wise the reli-

gious values of the Islamic Republic

“will not survive” he added. The

broadcasting and distribution of

music, films and books is subject to

a procedure of authorisation by the

Ministry of Culture, while the press

has, for a long time, been subjected

to legal attacks.

Furthermore, on 28 August the Iran-

ian media announced that the Iran-

ian authorities were organising an

International Conference on the

Holocaust (the reality of which they

challenge) on 11 December to cele-

brate World Human Rights Day. This

Conference, entitled “Research on

the Holocaust: world perspectives”

is being organised by the Centre for

Political and International Research

of the Foreign Affairs Ministry. It is

planned to last two days. The

themes for discussion are: “the rea-

sons for anti-Semitism in Europe”,

“the holocaust seen in the light of

historic documents”, “the holocaust,

the law and the media” and finally

“the holocaust and Zionism”. The

ultra-conservative Iranian President,

Mahmud Ahmedinjad has cast doubt

on the reality of the holocaust on a

number of occasions in the last few

months. Mid-August the Iranian

daily Hamshahri and the Iran House

of Caricatures organised, in Teheran,

an exhibition of caricatures on the

holocaust of the Jews during the

Second World War. Mahmud Ahmed-

injad, who describes the Jewish

state as a “tumour” has accused the

Europeans of having used the

“myth” of the holocaust to create

the state of Israel.

• THE FARCICAL TRIAL OF A

TURKISH EXTREMIST, PERPE-

TRATOR OF A BOMB ATTACK ON

THE TURKISH STATE COUNCIL.

The alleged perpetrator of the attack

against the Turkish State Council,

that caused one death and four

injured in Ankara, tried to escape

from the courtroom as his trial

began on 11 August causing the

suspension of the hearing. Alparslan

Arslan, a 29-year old lawyer, earlier

acknowledged having committed the

attack against the highest body of

Turkish Judicial administration as

well as a grenade attack against the

centre-left daily Cumhurriyet, giving

religious motives. The young man

was making his statement when the

muezzin’s call to prayer sounded

through the courtroom. “That is the

Friday call to prayer — I must con-

form to Allah orders”, repeated the

accused several times as the judge

refused to let him leave the hearing

to pray. A. Arslan then jumped out

of the dock and tried to escape but

was rapidly overcome by the gen-

darmes present in the court. In the

face of the disturbance caused by

the lawyer’s eight alleged accom-

plices, on trial with him, the court

suspended the hearing for two

hours.

Later in the day, Alparslan Arslan

made a second, unsuccessful,

attempt to escape after hearing the

afternoon call to prayer. A. Arslan

admitted the attack on the 4th

Chamber of the State Council, in

which he had opened fire on five

judges, killing one and wounding the

four others, as well as one of the

three grenade attacks on the daily

Cumhurriyet, in which there were no

victims. According to witnesses, the

lawyer had burst into the State

Council’s courtroom crying “I am a

soldier of God!”. “I planned in my

head the events at the State Council

and at Cumhurriyet”, he declared. “I

have a nature inclined to violence”.

Thye accused explained that he had

acted in reaction to a State Council

decision on the wearing of the

Islamic headscarf.

This state institution is well known

as a stronghold of secularism and

for the vigour with which it imposes

observance of the ban on wearing

the Islamic headscarf in public

administrations and universities.

Alparslan Arslan pointed out that the

attacks on Cunhurriyet were aimed

at punishing the paper following the

publication of a caricature in which a

pig (an unclean animal for Moslems)

is shown wearing an Islamic head-

scarf. The lawyer also gave some

clues to his political past by explain-

ing that one of his fellow detainees,

Suleyman Esen, his intellectual

guide as a student, was, at the time,

head of a local branch of the Idealist

Hearth, an extreme Right organisa-

tion. The Public Prosecutor asked for

life imprisonment, without any

reduction for good conduct, for

Alparslan Arslan and four of his

alleged accomplices, charged with

an attempt to overthrow the Consti-

tutional order, with assassination,

n° 257 • August 2006 Information and liaison bulletin • 11 •

using explosives and breach of the

law on firearms. The attack on the

State Council had aroused sharp

political tension, the opposition

accusing the government (whose

origins lie in the Islamist movement)

of having encouraged the attacker

by taking a stand against the ban on

the Islamic veil and by criticising the

State Council’s decision on the sub-

ject.

• THE INTERNATIONAL AUTO-

MOBILE FEDERATION IS

CAUGHT IN A TRAP BY TURKEY’S

ATTEMPT TO SECURE OFFICIAL

RECOGNITION OF NORTH

CYPRUS. Cyprus intends to com-

plain to the International Automobile

Federation (IAF) about the conduct

of the giving of trophies of the For-

mula 1 Turkish Grand Prix on 25 and

26 August. In fact it was a Turkish

Cypriot leader, Mehmet Ali Talat,

who gave the winning trophy to the

Brazilian driver Felipe Massa (Fer-

rari). Nicosia did not appreciate the

fact that the organisers presented

Mehmet Ali Talat as President of the

“Turkish Republic of North Cyprus”

— a political entity that no one

recognises except Turkey. The

Cyprus Government spokesman,

Christodoulos Passiardis, accused

the Turkish leaders of having

exploited a sporting event for politi-

cal ends and of having “conned” the

IAF. “The Cyprus Government will

denounce this unacceptable and

provocative bit of play-acting organ-

ised by Ankara”, stressed Mr. Pas-

siardis.

The Turkish organisers recognised

that they had circumvented the IAF

rules regarding the prize giving but

expressed no regret — far from it.

“Such a promotion (of their Cyprus

case) is priceless”, declared the

President of the Istanbul Chamber of

Commerce, Murat Yalcintas to the

Anatolia press agency. “The Formula

1 race was a splendid opportunity.

Cyprus is our national cause.” Mr.

Yalcintas admitted that, under the

IAF regulations, the organisers were

obliged to inform the IAF of the

identity of the public figures giving

the prizes. “However, as we had the

idea of using Mr. Talat in mind, we

delayed notification to the utmost.

We only gave the information about

noon on the day of the race”, point-

ed out Mr. Yalcintas. For his part, Mr.

Passiardis stated that the Cyprus

Automobile Federation, a member of

the IAF, will also be complaining.

Since the Turkish invasion in 1974,

Cyprus has been divided into a Turk-

ish-occupied part in the North and a

Greek part in the South, governed

by the only Cyprus government with

any international legitimacy for rep-

resenting the island as a whole. This

is the entity admitted to the Euro-

pean Union in 2004.

• THE HAZEL NUT CRISIS: OVER

100,000 PEOPLE PROTEST

AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT IN

TURKEY. The Turkish government

is faced with an unprecedented agri-

cultural crisis provoked by the anger

of the hazel nut producers, badly hit

by the drop in price of this fruit, of

which Turkey has a virtually a world

monopoly. There were nearly

100,000 (according to the police —

150,000 according to the organis-

ers) who demonstrated to attack the

government’s policy at the end of

July. The demonstration took place

at Ordu, on the Black Sea, (North-

East Turkey), where these nuts have

been cultivated since immemorial

times. The rally developed into a

clash with the police and Prime Min-

ister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has

sacked the local police chief, consid-

ering his attitude towards the

demonstrators far too lenient … The

demonstrators burned effigies of

Cuneyd Zapsu, a major exporter of

hazel nuts and one of Mr. Erdogan’s

close advisers, who they accuse of

deliberately lowering prices.

Between 70 and 80% of the hazel

nuts produced in the world come

from Turkey, according to Ministry of

Agriculture figures and over two mil-

lion people live mainly from their

cultivation in the Black Sea region.

This nut represents some 30% of

the national agricultural output.

Hazel nut production is greater than

world consumption — hence the col-

lapse of the price, which dropped

from 6 to 2.5 lire (3.2 to 1.3euros)

— the lowest level in Turkey’s histo-

ry. The small scale producers, who

have difficulty is selling their hazel

nuts, are in debt to the banks, some

have even been ruined. Total losses

are evaluated at some 2.5 billion

dollars (1.95 billion euros) according

to specialist in this field. The Union

of hazel nut producers (Fiskobirlik)

responsible for sales, cannot pay the

amount they owe the cultivators,

causing prices to drop still further,

and is highly criticised by the gov-

ernment that is pointing to it for its

“incapacity” in managing the crisis.

But it is the government that is the

main target of the peasants. Indeed,

the Staten used to clear Fiskobirlik’s

deficit (estimated at 100 million dol-

lars — 78 million euros) by buying

up the surplus nuts. But, for the last

three years the government has

refused to bail out Fiskobirlik

because of its commitment to the

IMF, which has demanded that it

reduce its budget expenses.

On 8 August, Mr. Erdogan called a

“hazel nut summit” at which several

ministers took part to take stock of

the situation and it was decided to

buy up part of the surplus this year

— a decision judged insufficient by

the producers. The President of the

powerful Ankara Chamber of Com-

merce, Sinan Aygun, called for a

“mobilisation” to prevent this crisis

leading to a social scourge in the

production areas. His organisation

decided to distribute hazel nuts in

the schools to dispose of the surplus

product. “The hazel nut is the key-

stone of Turkish economy” he went

so far as stating, calling on Turks to

consume this “national” fruit in great

quantities. The President of the

Union of Chambers of Agriculture

(TZOB), Semsi Bayraktar, for his

part threatened the government

with further demonstrations unless

he involved himself more in helping

settle the crisis.

Revue de Presse

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Dentro de la Prensa

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

Seule solution durable au conflit,renverser le pouvoir islamiste iranien

L'Iran veut l'arme nucléai-re et elle l'aura; les mol-lahs feront tout pour l'endoter. Actuellement, ils

ne font que mettre en pratique lacélèbre devise de Clausewitz:« La guerre n'est que la poursuitede la politique par d'autresmoyens. »

Le 12juillet dernier, le dossierdu nucléaire iranien était renvoyédevant le Conseil de sécurité del'ONU; le même jour, deux mili-taires israéliens étaient enlevéspar le Hezbollah et sept autresétaient tués, provoquant la réac-tion de l'État hébreu et une nou-velle guerre au Liban; ce nouveauconflit provoqua une nouvellehausse du prix du baril de pétrolequi frôla les 80 dollars; ces faitssont consécutifs d'une stratégiedes responsables iraniens.

Le Hezbollah constitue l'outildes mollahs iraniens pour mena-cer Israël. rIran qui se trouve dé-jà dans une situation intérieureéconomique et sociale extrême-ment fragile peut difficilementprendre le risque d'affronter di-rectement Israël, ses dirigeantssavent très bien que l'armée ira-nienne serait parfaitement inca-pable de s'opposer à une offensi-ve aérienne de grande envergurede la part d'Israël, les dégâtspourraient être considérables etcela donnerait lieu à un conflit ré-gional dont l'importance en dé-passerait les simples enjeux.rIran n'en a pas pour l'instant lesmoyens.

Pour contourner ce risque,l'Iran arme et finance le mouve-ment terroriste du Hezbollah àraison de 500 à 800 millions dedollars par an, suivant les estima-tions. Ce mouvement serait prêtpar exemple à entrer en action encas d'attaques aériennes surl'Iran destinées à détruire les sitesliés au processus d'accession dece pays à l'arme nucléaire.

rlran a fourni au Hezbollahun armement léger classique etdes missiles Zelzal d'une portéed'environ 200 km et pouvant em-porter une charge utile de 500 kg.La ville de Tel-Avivse trouve dansle rayon d'action de ces missiles.L'alliance entre l'Iran et la Syrieprend toute son importante dansce contexte puisque c'est par laSyrie que transitent les armes.

Pendant que le monde a lesyeux tournés vers le Liban, l'Iran

ParLouis Chagnon *

« La hausse du prixdu pétrole participe

à l'augmentationdu financementdu Hezbollah»

poursuit tranquillement son che-min vers l'accession à l'arme nu-cléaire, arme qui devient légitimecompte tenu de l'inversion à la-quelle nos « élites » intellectuelleset politiques nous ont habitués,transformant les agressés enagresseurs et les agresseurs envictimes; Israël agressé par le Ha-mas puis par le Hezbollah devientl'agresseur selon la propagandearabe et tout renforcement mili-taire de l'Iran prend toute sa légi-timité face à «l'agresseur sionis-te ». Le 20 juillet, Téhéran affirmaitsa volonté de produire du com-bustible nucléaire et menaçait dese retirer du TNp,tout cela en plei-ne crise au Liban alors que le dos-sier iranien était renvoyé devant leConseil de sécurité de l'ONU.

TOUjOurSdans le même temps,l'Iran en profitait également

pour étendre son influencerégionale au Turkménistan et auTadjikistan, avec l'ambition del'étendre à toute l'Asie centrale,au niveau des républiques del'ancien état soviétique; dans lepassé, l'Iran avait déjà joué le rôled'intermédiaire dans le conflitentre l'Azerbaïdjan et l'Arménie.rlran se veut et devient une puis-sance incontournable, ce qui se-rait tout à fait légitime pour cegrand pays s'il n'était gouvernépar des terroristes fondamenta-listes musulmans qui, à force dejouer avec le feu, pourraient bienprovoquer une guerre de trèsgrande ampleur.

Cette guerre arrange d'ailleursbien les affaires de l'Iran par sesrépercussions financières. Ce

conflit provoque, comme toutconflit dans cette région, des ten-sions sur le prix du baril de pétro-le, qui connaît une hausse consé-quente depuis plusieurs années,passant en 2001 de 24,44 $ (coursmoyen) pour atteindre 38,24 $ en2004; au début juillet 2005, il dé-passait la barre des 60 $ ; en avril2006, c'était la barre des 70 $ quiétait atteinte. Avec le nouveauconflit au Liban, le baril a dépasséles 78 $ le 14 juillet.

Rappelons que l'Iran se placeau 4' rang des producteurs de

pétrole et au second rang des ex-portateurs de l'Opep. Cette nou-velle envolée du prix du pétroleest bénéfique pour l'Iran qui voitaugmenter ses revenus: ainsi lahausse du prix du pétrole financela poursuite des recherches ira-niennes dans le domaine nucléai-re et participe à l'augmentationdu financement du Hezbollah.

La Syrie a une production pé-trolière modeste comparative-ment aux pays du Proche-Orient,elle ne représente qu'approxima-tivement 14 % de celle de l'Iran.Cette production pétrolière est enbaisse constante et les réserves

devraient s'épuiser dans les pro-chaines années. Ce qui impliqueque pour la Syrie l'avenir s'an-nonce assez sombre puisque lesexportations pétrolières repré-sentent une partie importante deses recettes, d'où l'importancepour elle de l'alliance iranienne.rarme nucléaire iranienne pour-ra servir à sanctuariser non seule-ment le territoire iranien maisaussi celui de la Syrie.

Bref, la puissance des mollahsiraniens se nourrit de la guerre etceux-ci ont tout intérêt à ce quel'état de guerre persiste au Liban.Dans ce sens, une force de main-tien de la paix envoyée par l'ONUserait surréaliste, elle ne résou-drait aucun problème et serait in-efficace. La seule solution durablepasse par le renversement dupouvoir islamiste iranien et doncun soutien sans faille de la partdes occidentaux à l'oppositiondémocratique iranienne; la Syrie,qui n'a pas les moyt'ns de l'Iran,serait alors isolée et son bellicis-me aurait moins de portée.

* Professeur d'histoire, chargéde recherche au Service historiquede la Défense.

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Ozeti

Attacks targeting Iraqi forces kill 36

The New York Times

Separately, a cameraman for an Irani-an television channel was killed in theAmariya neighborhood of Baghdad, saida Ministry ofInterior official.

In an U.S. military courtroom inTikrit, a hearing began Tuesday toweigh the evidence against four sol-diers accused of killing three Iraqi de-tainees during an operation against in-surgents in May. The soldiers areaccused of releasing the three Iraqis -suspected insurgents detained in a re-gion north of Baghdad - and shooting

the men as they fled.The hearing will determine whether

enough evidence exists to recommendthat the four soldiers face full courts-martial.

1{l'ral~~~(tribunl'August 2, 2006

Reporting for this article was contrib-uted by Sahar Nageeb and Qais Mizherfrom Baghdad, an Iraqi employee of TheNew York Times from Kirkuk, and Paulvon Zielbauer from Forward OperatingBase Speicher, Iraq.

w~Mohammed JalillEuropean Pressphoto Agency

An Iraqi soldier guarding the scene of a suicide car bombing Tuesday in the Karradadistrict of Baghdad.The attack killed at least 5 people and wounded at least 14others.

The suicide car bomb attack in Bagh-dad on Tuesday occurred on a busy com-mercial street in the predominantlyShiite, middle-class neighborhood ofKarrada, on the east side of the TigrisRiver opposite the fortified Green Zone.

H was the second car bomb in fivedays on that street, which runs throughthe center of a district that, until re-cently, had not seen the level of violencethat has plagued other neighborhoods.But the latest attack shattered anylingering notion among residents andshop owners that the neighborhood wasa bastion of calm.

"The situation is very bad and thisstreet is very dangerous now, but wehave no remedy," said Shikhan, the mu-sic store owner. "We have to work tofeed our families."

In another deadly attack against Iraqisecurity forces Tuesday, a car bomb ap-parently rigged to explode next to anIraqi police patrol near the main hospi-tal in the troubled town of Muqdadiya,north of Baghdad, killed five civiliansand a policeman, according to the po-lice in Diyala Province.

In Kirkuk, an improvised bomb ex-ploded next to a police convoy, killingtwo officers, said Captain Firhad Azizof the Kirkuk police.

Elsewhere in Iraq, bombs, ambushesand street dashes left at least 3 peopledead and 13wounded, the police said.

By Kirk Semple

BAGHDAD: Four separate attacksaimed at Iraqi soldiers or police officerskilled at least 36 people Tuesday andwounded at least 45, officials said, asAmerican and Iraqi generals continuedto shift security forces to Baghdad aspart of their retooled strategy to rollback surging violence in the capital.

In the deadliest of those attacks, apowerful improvised bomb explodedbefore dawn next to a bus carrying Iraqitroops from Mosul to Baghdad, Iraqimilitary officials reported. At least 23soldiers were killed and 20 werewounded in the blast, which occurrednear the Sunni Arab bastion of Tikrit,Saddam Hussein's hometown.

Several hours later, a suicide bomberdrove a sedan packed with explosives to-ward a naghdad bank where Iraqi troopswere collecting their monthly pay, butthe vehicle exploded before it reachedits apparent target when soldiersopened fire on it, military officials said.

The attack killed at least 5people - 4civilians and 1 soldier - and woundedat least 14,including 8 civilians, accord-ing to the Ministry of Defense.

Loqman Shikhan, the owner of a mu-sical instrument store several blocksaway from the bomb site, said he hadseen bloodied victims lying in the streetand calling for help but receiving none"because people thought there might beanother bomb waiting to explode."

Insurgents seeking maximumramage sometimes rletonate secondarybombs after rescue crews have arrivedat an attack sÎte.

President George W. Bush and PrimeMinister Nüri Kamal al-Maliki an-nounced an agreement last week to sig-nificantly strengthen military presencein Baghdad. The plan calls for adding atleast 4,000 U.S. soldiers and 4,000 Iraqisecurity troops in the capital.

There are now 9,000 U.S. troops,8,500 Iraqi soldiers and 34,500 Iraqi po-lice officers involved in security opera-tions in Baghdad, according to militaryofficials.

The cycle of sectarian bloodshed hassteadily worsened in recent months,particularly in the capital, in spite ofMaliki's original security plan, whichhe instituted shortly after he was in-stalled in office in late May.

According to statistics from the Iraqigovernment and collated by the United

. Nations, an average of more than 100 ci-vilians a day were killed in June, manyin the capital.

Much of the recent violence has beendriven by sectarian death squads, includ-ing Sunni insurgents seeking to topplethe national government, and by Shiitemilitiamen operating under the cover ofIraq's Shiite-controlled security forces.

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

August 1,2006l~.~);~he Kurdish Globe

...,,! .. -------Iraq and the Kurds:TIillΠill~ Ln:D~Π0\7& GSJl?Lts~

Executive Summary and Recommendations

Crisis Group Report

As all eyes areturned toward ef-forts to stabilise

Ir:aq, the conflict thath'llS been percolating inKirkuk remains dan-gerous and dangerouslyneglected. That strug-gle is equal parts streetbrawl over oil riches,ethnic competition overidentity between Kurd-ish, Turkoman, Araband Assyrian-Chaldeancommunities, and titanicclash between two na-tions, Arab and Kurd.

Given the high stakes,the international commu-nity cannot afford to standby, allowing the situatIOnto slip lOto chaos by de-fault. It needs to step inand propose a solutIOn thataddresses all sides' coreconcerns without crossingtheir eXistential red lines.The most viable negoti-ated outcome, which aspecial UN envoy shouldmediate between leadersof Kirkuk's communitIesas well as representativesof the federal governmentand the Kurdish federalregion, would rest on thefollowing provisIOns:

postponing the constitu-tionally-mandated refer-endum on Kirkuk's statuswhich, in today's environ-ment, would only exacer-bate tensions; designatmgKirkuk governorate as astand-alone federal regionfalling neither under theKurdish federal region nordirectly under the federalgovernment for an interimperiod; equitable power-sharing arrangements be-tween Kirkuk's four prin-cil1al communities; andcontinued reversal of pastabuses, including man-aged return of those whowere forcibly displaced byprevious regimes; facili-ties and compensation forthose brought by previousregimes (includmg theiroffspring) who agree toleave voluntarily; resolu-

tion of property disputesvia the established mecha-nism; and a process bywhich former Kirkuk dis-tricts can either be restoredto Kirkuk governorate orremain where they are.

To the Kurds, Kirkukwas always a Kurdish-ma-jority region - shared, theyreadily admit, with othercommunities - over whichthey fought and suffered,from Arabisation to forceddepopulation to genocide.In their view, the Baathistregime's removal created

an opportunity to restoreKirkuk to Its rightful own-ers They have done muchin the past three years toencourage the displaced toreturn, persuade Arab new-comers to depart and seizecontrol of political andmilitary levers of powerTheir ultimate objective IS

to incorporate Kirkuk gov-ernorate into the Kurdishfederal region and makeKirkuk town its capital.

To the other communi-ties, the Kurdish claimis counterfeit, mspiredpnmarily by a greedy ap-petite for oil revenue, andthey view the progres-sive Kurdish takeover ofKirkuk as an outrage. Tothe Turkomans, in par-ticular, the growmg Kurd-ish presence has causeddeep resentment, as theyconsider Kirkuk town his-torically Turkoman (whileconcedmg that the Kurdsare a significant urban rnl-nonty, as well as an out-right majority ID the sur-roundmg countryside).

The Kurds' rising powerhas allowed them to createinstitutional faits accom-plis that now threaten tobring the Kirkuk conflictto a vigorous boil. Theirpromment role in draftingthe constitution in 2005enabled them to insert aparagraph that ordains agovernment-led de-Arabi-sation program in Kirkuk,to be followed by a censusand local referendum by

the end of2007. However,while the constitution putsthem formally m the right,neither any of Kirkuk'sother communities, sig-nificant parts of the centralgovernment nor any nelgh-bounng state supportsthese procedures Turkey,in particular, has indicatedit will not tolerate Kirkuk'sformal absorption into theKurdish region, and it hasvarious means of coercivediplomacy at its disposal,including last-resort mili-tary intervention, to blockthe Kurds' ambitIOns.

Within a year, therefore,Kurds will face a basicchOice: to press ahead withthe constitutional mecha-nisms over everyone's re-sistance and risk violentconflict, or take' a stepback and seek a negotiatedsolution.

Passions may be too highto permit the latter coursebut, on the basis of twoyears of conversatIOnswith representatives of allKirkuk's commumties,as well as of the govern-ments of Iraq, Turkey, theU S and the Kurdish fed-eral regIOn, Cnsls Groupbelieves a compromisearrangement that meets

all sides' vital mterests IS

attainable.Failure by the mterna-

tIonal commumty to actearly and decisively couldwell lead to a rapid dete-rioratIOn as the December2007 deadline approaches.

The result would be vio-lent communal conflict,spreadmg civil war and,possibly, outside militaryinterventIOn. It is doubtfulthat an Iraq so profoundlyunsettled by sectarian riftsand msurgent violencewould survive another ma-Jor body blow in an areawhere the largest of thecountry's diverse commu-nities are represented.

RecommendationsTo the Government ofIraq:

1. Invile the UN SecurityCouncil to appoint a spe-cial envoy charged with:

(a) facllitatmg a negoti-ated solution to the statusof Kirkuk as well as otherKurdish-claimed areas;

(b) raising donor fundsfor Kirkuk's rehabilitationand ensunng their use onthe basis of need, not eth-niclty;

(c) monitoring the par-ties' compliance with anyagreements reached, and

(d) reporting regularly tothe Security Council.

2. Intensify the processof revers mg past abuses IDKirkuk, including:

(a) the managed return ofpeople forcibly displacedby previous regimes;

(b) facilities and compen-sation for people broughtin by past regimes (mclud-ing their offspring) whoagree to leave voluntarily;

(c) resolution of property

disputes via the establishedmechanism; and

(d) a process by whichformer Kirkuk districtscan either be restored toKIrkuk governorate or re-malO where they are.

To the Governmentof Iraq, the Councilof Representatives,Representativesof Kirkuk'sCommunities and theKurdistan RegionalGovernment:

3. Indicate the intentionto resolve the status ofKirkuk and other disputedterritories through peace-

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

Kurdlstan PreSident Mas'ioud Barzanl

Massoud Barzani: Kirkukmust be integrated into

Kurdistan Region

MInister of Peshmarga General All

"it is correct that Turkey bombedinside Kurdlstan and we haverecorded the areas names in areport and send it to the IraqiGovernment," the Mmister said.

The Globe

August 1,2006

The Globe

his commItment to supportingthe people of Kirkuk, regardlessof ethlllclty or reltgion.

"The brotherhood that is presentamong all the ethlllc varieties inKirkuk should be aided towardsbetter development, and everyeffort should be made to preventthose who want to destroy thisrelatIOnshIp"

In his first interview withThe Hewler Post since hisappointment as a Minister ofPeshmarga, General Ali talkedabout the Turkish attempts toenter Kurdistan and made hISannouncement concerning theborder, "we are not interferingin Turkish internal affaIrs, andwill not cross the boardersof anyone, therefore we willdefend our country with thecooperation of Iraqi FederalGovernment if anyone tries tocross our boarders, our policywas always defense not attack ....

GeneralAli, the Ministerof Peshmarga hasdeclared that up until

this moment, no Turkishsoldier has crossed the border,however if they do, we willdefend Kurdistan.

President Barzani also stressed

Ina visit to Suleimaniya,KRG President MassoudBarzani, insisted that

Article 140 of the IraqiConstitution, for thenormalization of Kirkuk, beimplemented and stated thatKirkuk should be returned tothe Kurdistan Region.

on an equitable basIs.

To the Government ofTurkey:

7. Commit to the peace-ful resolution of theKirkuk question and lowerrhetoric on this issue.

8. Facilitate trade, espe-cially in fuel products, be-tween Turkey and northernIraq, for example by open-ing a second border cross-ing m addition to the oneat Khabur, and promoteinvestment with the IraqiKurdistan regIOn.

9. Commit not to sendmilitary forces into Iraqor to undertake measuresof coercive diplomacy,such as shutting down theKhabur border crossing orthe Baji-Ceyhan pipeline.

To the Government ofthe United States:

10. Lend full diplomaticand financial support topeaceful resolution of thestatus of Kirkuk and otherdisputed territories, makethis one of its diplomaticpriorities in Iraq, and per-suade all Iraqi political ac-tors of the need to pursuea negotiated solutIOn to theKirkuk question.

(a) Encourage Iraqi po-litical leaders to promotemore mclusive and trans-parent decisIOn-mak-ing around the future ofKirkuk by including abroader group of actors inthe negotiations.To the United NationsSecurity Council:

Il. Act on an Iraqi requestto appoint a special envoyfor Kirkuk, supported bya Security Council resolu-tion outlining the envoy'spowers in accordance withproposals in this report.

KRG Minister o£ Pesh-marga: Turkey alwaysoiienses (threatens),

we will defend Kurdistanby all means

(c) the charter wouldgrant Kirkuk governoratethe status of federal regIOnfor a defined period oftime; and

(d) Kirkuk's four com-munities would agree onequitable power-sharingarrangements.

To the KurdistanRegional Govern-ment:

S. Prepare the Kurdishpublic for necessary com-promises on Kirkuk andKurdish national aspira-tions, including acceptanceof Kirkuk governorate as astand-alone federal regionfor an interim period.

6. Relinquish directoratesin the Kirkuk governo-rate over which the Kurd-ish parties took control inApril 2003 and cooperatewith the UN special envoyin redistributing seniorposts in the governorate

fui negotiatIOns and com-mit to moderating rhetoricon this matter.

4. Negotiate with thehelp of the UN special en-voy an intenm solution fora defined period, perhapsten years, along the fol-lowing Imes:

(a) broaden the nego-tiations over KIrkuk toinclude other Iraqi stake-holders, specifically repre-sentatives of civil society,mcludmgunions, non-prof-its and women 's organisa-tions,

Cb) during the sched-uled constitutional reviewprocess, the council ofrepresentatives would setaside the Idea of a refer-endum for Kirkuk and in-stead draft a charter deal-ing specifically with thatgovernorate;

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

La nomination du général YasarBüyükanit (au centre) à la tête des forces armées est l'un des jalonsque pose l'armée en vue de l'élection présidentielle de 2007. AP/SIPA.

LE nGARO 2 août 2006

L'armée turqueconforteson influencepolitique

quelque sorte », explique UmitCizre, politologue à l'universitéBilkent à Ankara. Les combattantsdu PKK ont repris ces derniersmois leurs attaques: seize mili-taires ont été tués ces deux der-nières semaines. Pourtant les re-quêtes d'une partie de l'appareilmilitaire pour restaurer l'état d'ur-gence n'ont jusqu'à présent pastrouvé d'écho favorable.

Mais selon Levent Unsaldi, so-

ciologue auteur de l'essai Le Mili-taire et la politique en Turquie ('),les réformes obtenues parBruxelles n'ont entamé qu'à lamarge le pouvoir de l'institution:« Ses intérêts wnt intacts, toutcomme son droit d'ingérence dansla vie politique et sa mission dl

gardienne de l'intégrité de l'État. »Le Parlement valide toujours lebudget des dépenses militairessam discuter. Et la loi précisantles obligations de l'armée n'a pasété modifiée.

Son devoir reste « de surveilleret protéger la République établieconstitutionnellement ii. En 1997,jugeant la laïcité en danger, l'ar-mée avait acculé le gouvernementislamiste de Necmettin Erbakan àla démission. Ce pouvoir législatifest consolidé par un soutien sansfaille du public. « Il faut garder àl'esprit que 80 % de la populationlui fait confiance, rappelle Meh-met AliBirand, journaliste vedetteà Kanal D et spécialiste des enjeuxmilitaires. Une partie de la sociétécivile soutient cette influence. ii

Partage du pouvoirAprès l'assassinat en mai

dernier d'un juge du Conseild'Etat au cri de « Allaho Akbar! ii,

des milliers de manifestantsavaient scandé dans les ruesd'Ankara « Erdogan, assassin! ii

Le chef de l'état-major del'époque, Hilmi l>zkôk, était in-tervenu publiquement pour féli-citer ses concitoyens.

I:actualité en Turquie est ryth-mée par les déclarations des gé-néraux. Mais les interventions de

chef de l'Etat sorti des rangs del'AKp,cristallise cette radicalisa-tion. « Si jamais le premier mi-mstre Brdogan brigue la présiden-ce de la République, il y aura destensions, assène Gündüz Aktan,directeur du think-tank Asam,proche des cercles militaro-natio-nalistes. L'armée le mettra en gar-de gentiment. »

Le message semble avoir étébien reçu par le gouvernement etla majorité AKP du Parlement,chargé d'élire le chef de l'Etat: lesnoms de présidentiables plusconsensuels que celui du premierministre circulent. I:enjeu de cet-te élection pré&identielle est révé-lateur de l'intervention de l'arméedans le jeu politique turc. Tou-

jours bien présente même si elles'est faite plus discrète, notam-ment sous la pression de l'Unioneuropéenne.

Depuis 2003, de nombreusesréformes ont été menées pour ré-duire la capacité d'ingérence poli-tique des militaires. Ainsi, ils nedisposent plus de représentantsau sein du conseil de l'audiovisuelou du Yl>K,le puissant organismede tutelle des universités. Surtout,le Conseil national de sécurité(MGK),sorte de cabinet ministé-riel parallèle qui permettait àl'état-major d'imposer ses vues augouvernement, a été démilitarisé.Tout comme la majorité de sesmembres, l'actuel secrétaire géné-ral du MGKvient désormais de lasociété civile.

Le processus de négociationsd'adhésion à l'UE, soutenu parl'armée, a également réduit lamarge de manœuvre des mili-taires dans le sud-est du pays àmajorité kurde. La guerre civileentre les troupes du séparatisteAbdullah Ocalan et l'armée a cau-sé 37 000 morts dans les années1980-1990. « Bruxelles soumet dé-sormais l'armée à sa disclplme en

qui appartient à la tendance durede la hiérarchie militaire, a éténommé lundi chef de l'état-ma-jor. Son arrivée à la tête des forcesarmées confirme le regain d'in-fluence du clan des souverai-nistes au sein de l'institution etintervient alors que les relationsentre l'armée et le pouvoir civil sedurcissent en Turquie.

La possible arrivée en 2007 aupalais de Cankaya, fief laïc, d'un

I:ARMÉEa remporté une manchedans sa bataille contre le gouver-nement AKP islamo-conserva-teur. Le général Yasar Büyükanit,

Istanbul

TURQUIELes réformes demandéespar Bruxelles n'ont limitéque partiellementle pouvoir des militaires.

Büyükanit veut neutraliser les bases arrière des rebelles kurdes dan$. le nord de l'Irak• Le nouveau chef de l'état-ma-jor est un partisan de la manièreforte pour lutter contre le PKK.Le général Yasar Büyükanlt dé-fend une opération militaire dansle nord de l'Irak afin de neutrali-ser les bases amère des com-battants kurdes. Lorsqu'il étaitcommandant des forces ter-restres turques, il avait critiqué

la mollesse du gouvernement fa-ce aux attaques de l'organIsa-tion terrOriste. Mais dès le débutde l'intervention Israélienne auLiban, le premier ministre turc adurcI son discours en menaçantd'intervenir de l'autre côté de lafrontière. L'ambassadeur améri-cain à Ankara a aussitôt prévenuqu'une incurSion turque « ne se-

rait pas sage ". Piqué au vif, Re-cep TaYYlp Erdogan a dénoncéle « deux pOids deux mesures»de Washington dans la région:« Le terrorisme est partout duterrorisme. Il n'est pas possibled'être d'accord avec une menta-lité bienveillante à l'égard desactes d'un pays A, mais qUImontre une attitude différente

quand 11s'agIt d'un pays B. "Ankara demande depuIs desmOIs à son allié améncaln d'agirdans les montagnes Irakiennes.Lors d'entretiens téléphoniquesces derniers Jours, George Bushaurait assuré à Erdogan que lestroupes améncalnes allaient agircontre les camps du PKK.

L.M.

Il

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l'armée ne se limitent pas au dé-bat public. En novembre 2005,l'explosion d'une bombe dansune librairie pro- PKKà Semdinli,près de la frontière irakienne,avait fait un mort. Les respon-sables de l'attentat avaient été

pris sur le fait: il s'agissait de deuxgendarmes.

Un procureur de Van avait ré-clamé l'ouverture d'une enquêtecontre le général Buyükanit,commandant de l'armée de terre,et soupçonné de liens avec les

deux militaires Le magistrat, ac-cusé par l'opposition d'agir pourle compte de l'AKp, a été radié.« Concernant les enjeux essentiels,le goulJernement est obligé de par-tager le pouvoir avec les mili-taires, résume Umit Cizre. Ils ont

toujours le dernier mot sur les su-jets sensibles comme Chypre oules Kurde,. »

LAURE MARCHAND

(*) Ed. L'Harmattan, Paris 2005.

fe1JlonfleMercredi 2 août 2006

Un «faucon» favorable à une opération en Irakà la tête de l'armée turque

6

ANKARAENVOYEE SPËCIALELe gouvernement turc a nommé à la têtede son armée, lundi 31juillet, un généralconsidéré comme un « faucon ». Cettenomination intervient au moment où laTurquie relance ses menaces d'interve-nir dans le nord de l'Irak et s'interrogesur sa participation à une force de paixau Liban.

Conforme aux traditions de rotation àla tête de l'état-major, la nomination dugénéral Yasar Büyükanit, 66 ans, com-mandant des forces terrestres, pour rem-placer le général Hilmi Ozk6k, un« modéré» qui part à la retraite, met finà des mois de spéculations sur la volontésupposée du gouvernement turc de s'op-poser à cette succession.

Penchants nationalistesLe gouvernement du Parti de lajus-

tice et du développement (AKP), auxracines islamistes, fut ainsi accusé parl'opposition « kémaliste », laïciste etnationaliste comme les militaires,d'avoir poussé un procureur de provinceà demander - audace sans précédent -la mise en examen du futur numéro unde l'armée pour liens occultes avec un

gang de provocateurs antikurdes.Le procureur fut radié, mais le géné-

ral Büyükanit, bien que déclaré au-des-sus de tout soupçon, pourrait réagir en« animal blessé», estiment certains com-mentateurs' et chercher à se venger.

Le général Büyükanit est, en effet,connu pour ses rigidités sur les ques-tions sécuritaires et ses penchants natio-nalistes, tout en étant accusé, dans lesmilieux islamistes qu'il combat, d'être« pro-américain» et « pro-israélien ».Il serait surtout un « faucon» de la luttecontre le PKK -le parti ex-marxiste etséparatiste des rebelles kurdes de Tur-

quie qui opèrent aussi à partir du nordde l'Irak.

En novembre, il critiqua le gouverne-ment pour son refus d'ordonner uneintervention de l'armée contre les campsirakiens du PKK, après des attaques decelui-ci en Turquie. En juillet, des atta-ques plus meurtrières encore -15 mili-taires turcs tués par le PKKen troisjours - ont fait la « une» des médias etamené le gouvernement à menacer d'in-tervenir « au cas où le gouvernement ira-kien ou lesforces américaines en Irak neprenaient pas eux-mêmes les mesuresnécessaires» .

Mais les Etats-Unis ont, comme tou-jours, exprimé leur opposition à touteopération « unilatérale» de l'armée tur-que en Irak, tout en promettant de coopé-rer avec la Turquie, membre de l'OTAN,contre le PKK - que Washington, demême que rUE, ont inscrit sur leurs lis-tes d'organisations terroristes. Ces pro-messes ne furent jamais mises en œuvre,ce qui a nourri le soupçon, en Turquie,que les Etats-Unis veulent préserver lePKKcomme une arme contre les régi-mes d'Iran et de Syrie, où celui-ci est éga-lement actif. C'est, en tout cas, ce qu'af-firme l'ambassadeur d'Iran à Ankara,qui se félicite de la bonne coopération dela Turquie avec son pays contre le PKK.

Besoins sécuritairesDans ce contexte, l'attaque israélien-

ne contre le Liban à la poursuite du Hez-bollah a eu pour effet d'accroître l'irrita-tion turque contre Washington, lesmédias dénonçant la politique de « deuxpoids, deux mesures» des Américains,qui « encouragent Israè1 àfaire ce qu'ilsinterdisent à la Turquie ». Le premierministre turc, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, adû hausser le ton et tancer les Améri-cains avant d'en obtenir des mises au

point, confirmant que la Turquie « a ledroit de se défendre contre le terrorisme».

Des séries de rencontres entre repré-sentants turcs, américains et irakiens,ainsi que des entretiens téléphoniquesentre MM. Bush et Erdogan, ont permisà ce dernier d'assurer à son pays que, cet-te fois, les Américains seraient décidés àagir contre le PKK. Des membres de l'ad-ministration kurde d'Irak entamaient,par ailleurs, leurs premiers entretienssur le sujet en Turquie.

Mais, c'est surtout l'éventualité d'uneparticipation turque à la force de paixenvisagée pour le Liban qui donnerait àM. Erdogan l'espoir de voir les besoinssécuritaires de son propre pays pris fina-lement en compte.

Pour autant, les militaires turcs - etsans doute le général Büyükanit lui-même, qui doit prendre ses fonctions le30 août - restaient très prudents surleur intérêt à se joindre à une force dontles conditions de déploiement sontinconnues, où ils risquent d'être lesseuls membres musulmans et de seretrouver au côté uniquement de mem-bres de l'OTAN, estimait-on, lundi, desource diplomatique à Ankara .•

SOPHIE SHIHAB

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ftmondt 2août2006

Israël en conflit indirect avec l'Iran

¥e d'Israël, la guerre contre le Hezbol-lah libanais ressemble aux prémicesd'un conflit indirect, mais fondamen-tal, avec l'Iran. Elle n'est pas seule-ment la réponse à l'enlèvement de

deux soldats israéliens par la milice extrémistechiite ; pas seulement une bataille pour empê-cher que les miliciens du Parti de Dieu conti-nuent à tirer des missiles de l'autre côté de la fron-tière ; pas seulement une épreu-ve de force décidée pour rétablir,aux dépens du pays du Cèdre, un

, pouvoir de dissuasion que l'ar-mée israélienne estime avoir per-du à la suite des retraits du Liban (printemps2000) et de Gaza (été 2005).

Derrière la guerre déclarée au Hezbollah, il y aun objectif stratégique plus large: en frappantun groupe que les Israéliens qualifient de brasarmé de l'Iran au Proche-Orient, Jérusalementend interdire à la République islarriique des'imposer comme partie prenante dans le conflitisraélo-arabe.

Telle est l'impression qui ressort d'une séried'entretiens avec des responsables politiques etdes experts israéliens organisés pour des journa-listes européens par le gouvernement de Jérusa-lem. Lemessage est, parfois, formulé pour répon-dre à la critique dont Israël est l'objet: la « dispro-portionnalité » de sa réplique au double enlève-ment du 12juillet.

Les représailles aux provocations du Hezbol-lah justifient-elles le nombre des morts civils auLiban et la destruction de tant d'infrastructurescivilesdans cepays - routes, autoroutes, stations-service, centrales électriques, usines, centaines

d'immeubles, aéroport, etc.? La question estdétournée, suscitant la réponse suivante: l'am-pleur des destructions au Liban doit être appré-ciée à l'aune du véritable enjeu. L'argument vautce qu'il vaut.

Plus sérieusement, Ze'ev Schiff, l'un des com-mentateurs militaires les plus respectés du pays,écrivait la semaine dernière dans le quotidienHaaretz (cf'ntre gauche) : «La bataille en cours

au Liban va déteiminer la placedel'[ran au Proche-Orient. » '

Une défaite du Hezbollah(Parti de Dieu) est 1¥1edéfaitepour son créateur et son protec-

teur iranien. Les Israéliens n'ignorent pas que leParti de Dieu est une formation solidementancrée dans la réalité libanaise; ils savent qu'unemajorité des chiites du Liban se reconnaît danscette formation. Elle ne disparaîtra pas sousl'assaut.

Mais les Israéliens observent que le Hez~ollah,dont l'idéologie prône la disparition pure et sim-ple d'Israël, est intrinsèquement lié à la Républi-que islamique. Le Hezbollah recevrait, chaqueannée, quelque 100 millions de dollars d'aide

ANALYSEALAIN FRACHON

militaire, dont des équipements les plus sophisti-qués ; ses cadres et ses miliciens sont entraînéspar un détachement des Gardiens de la révolu-tion iraniens, ouvertement installé dans l'est duLiban; les missiles qui fondent sur les villes israé-liennes sont de provenance iranienne ou syrien-ne ; nombre de chiites libanais font allégeance auchef suprême de la République islamique, l'aya-tollah Ali Khamenei.

Cette république n'est pas n'importe quelrégime. Il s'agit d'un régime désireux d'acquérir

l'arme nucléaire et dont le président, MahmoudAhmadinejad, proclame son désir de rayer Israëlde la carte. Au Proche-Orient, l'histoire enseigneque les uns et les autres font en général ce qu'ilsdisent, de Camal Abdel Nasser à Ariel Sharon ...

Personnalité vedette de la vie politiqueisraélienne, Tzippi Livni, la ministre des affairesétrangères, voit le chef du Hezbollah, HassanNasrallah, comme un porte-parole de la politi-que iranienne dans la région. Téhéran affichevolontiers ses objectifs : refus de toute solutionnégociée dans le conflit israélo-palestinien etdonc volonté d'en torpiller la moindre esquisse;conviction qu'Israël doit un jour disparaître de larégion et, en conséquence, que la création d'unEtat palestinien à ses côtés relève du défaitisme.

Pas question, dit Mm,Livni, de laisser l'Iranrévolutionnaire, et ses alliés d'un nouveau frontdu refus -la Syrie et le Hamas palestinien - deve-nir une force ascendante au Proche-Orient. Pourles Israéliens, cela passe par une défaite du Hez-bollah - claire et nette même si elle n'est que par-tielle - dans la guerre en cours au Liban.

Depuis le retrait de l'armée israélienne, enmai 2000, sur une ligne frontalière fixée parl'ONU, il n'y a plus de contentieux entre le Libanet l'Etat juif. Aquoi étaient donc destinés les quel-que 17000 missiles accumulés par le Hezbollahau Liban ?

Aassurer ainsi, dit-on àJérusalem, une présen-ce iranienne, militaire et politique, dans larégion. Objectifs supposés de la République isla-mique : exercer une influence sur le conflit israé-lo-arabe, dans un sens bien particulier; répli-quer sur Israël à la moindre attaque contre l'Iran.

Nombre d'Etats arabes pensent comme les diri-geants de Jérusalem. Et, pour la première fois, ilsle disent tout haut. L'Egypte, l'Arabie saoudite, laJordanie, et plusieurs Etats du Golfe ont publi-quement dénoncé l'irresponsabilité du Parti deDieu dans le double enlèvement du 12juillet.

Et ces pays souhaitent aussi que le Hezbollahne sOl::tepas vainqueur de la nouvelle guerre liba-naise. Mais ils sont à contre-courant de leursadministrés, d'une ?pinion arabe largement

acquise au Parti de Dieu, et qui l'est un peu plus àchaque bombardement sur le Liban, à chaqueimage de civils libanais tués, blessés, terrorisés.

Hassan Nasrallah est en passe de devenir l'undes héros de la rue arabe, territoires palestinienscompris; l'un de ces messies qui, à la façon deNasser dans les années 1960 puis de SaddamHussein en 1990-1991, promettent -à intèrvallerégulier de venger « l'humiliation» des Arabeset de débarrasser les Palestiniens d'Israël, etconfortent les illusions et le malheur de cesderniers ...

La popularité du chef du Hezbollah n'est pasde nature à rassurer des élites arabes majoritaire-ment sunnites. Au-delà, elles voient confirméeleur crainte de la remontée en puissance d'unIran qu'elles avaient cru assagi. La présidenceAhmadinejad sonne le réveil de ce mélangedétonnant - ultranationalisme et messianismechiite - qui est le carburant de la révolution ira-nienne.

Au Caire, à Riyad, à Amman, on redoute la for-mation d'un « croissant chiite » radical qui partde Téhéran, passe par Beyrouth (avec le Hezbol-lah) et Bagdad. La chute de Saddam Hussein alibéré un pouvoir chiite irakien souvent proche,très proche du régime iranien. Le rôle que ce« croissant chiite » sera amené à avoir se joue enpartie dans cette énième guerre du Liban.

Fondée ou non, cette analyse stratégique estl'un des éléments qui commandera une décision-clé de la part d'Israël: quand accepter un cessez-le-feu? •

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Nassir Abdulaziz ai-Nasser, Qatar's UNenvoy, voting against the resolution Monday.

UN adoptsresolutionon IranianatomicworkBy Warren Hoge

UNITED NATIONS, New York: TheSecurity Council adopted a resolutionMonday demanding that Iran suspendits uranium' enrichment and repro-cessing work by the end of August orface the possibility of sanctions.

The vote was 14 to I, with Qatar, theArab representative on the council, dis-senting.

Javad Zarif, the Iranian ambassador,speaking after the vote, rejected it, say-ing that the council was acting illegallyand had no international credibility.

"Ira'n's peaceful nuclear programposes no threat to international peaceand security, and therefore dealing withthis issue in the Security Council is un-warranted and void of any legal basis orpractical utility," he said.

He mocked the council for its inabil-ity to act forcefully in the current war inLebanon, saying, "You be the judge ofhow much credibility this leaves for theSecurity Council Millions of peoplearound the world have already passedtheir judgment."

The resolution is the first move bythe council ôn the Iranian nuclear pro-gram that is legally binding and carriesthe threat of sanctions.

It demands the "full and sustained, suspension" of nuclear activities, in-cluding research and development, byAug. 31, to be verified by the Interna-tional Atomic Energy Agency, the UNnuclear watchdog.

'It also calls on all countries to pre:vent the shipment to Iran of any materi-als that could be used in its enrichment-related activities or ballistic missileprograms.

"This is the first UN SC resolution onIran in response to its nuclear weaponsprogram, reflecting the gravity of thissituation and the unity and determina-tion of the council," said John Bolton,the U.S. ambassador. "We hope this res-olution will demonstrate to Iran thatthe best way to end its international iso-lation is to simply give up the pursuit ofnuclear weapons."

Iran says its nuclear program is forpeaceful purposes, but the UnitedStates and its European allies argue thatit is for bomb-making.

The final text, worked out after objec-tions from China and Russia, noted theneed for "further decisions" before anypunishments for noncompliance can beadopted. Those measures include eco-nomic, travel and communication sanc-tions, but do not resort to militaryforce.

Vitaly Churkin, the Russian ambassa-dor, stressed this aspect, saying that themeasure should be viewed as an interimstep and that all the council membershad decided was to consider further ac-tion if Iran did not cooperate.

Bolton emphasized the punishmentaspects of the resolution, saying that ifIran did not comply with the council'sdemands, "we will be back here in amonth looking at' a sanctions resolu-tion."

A number of speakers noted the fail-ure of Iran to respond to a package ofcommercial and technological incen-tives offered to Iran on June 6 by Brit-ain, China, France, Germany, Russiaand the United States.

"Our message to Iran is that we areopen to negotiations, the package isquite clear, what it offers and what it re-quires," said Emyr Jones Par:ry, the Brit-ish ambassador. "If Iran is prepared totake those steps, then we can move for-ward constructively."

Zarif countered that Iran had agreedto give an answer to the package by Aug.22 and the council was therefore actingprematurely.

Bolton told reporters, "If you look atthe entire length of the Iranian nuclearprogram, some 18 years, this is not ex-actly hasty action."

The New York TImes

8

Iran rejectscouncil's voteThe Associated Press

TEHRAN: President Mahmoud Ah-madinejad on Tuesday rejected a UNSecurity Council resolution that wouldgive his nation until Aug. 31to suspenduranium enrichment.

Ahmadinejad insisted that Tehranwould pursue its nuclear program.

"My words are the words of the Irani-

International Herald TribuneWednesday, August 2, 2006

an nation," he said. "Throughout Iran,there is one slogan: 'The Iranian nationconsiders the peaceful use of nuclearfuel production technology its right.' "

The Security Council passed a reso-lution Monday calling for Iran to sus-pend uranium enrichment by the end ofAugust or face the threat of economicand diplomatic sanctions.

Ahmadinejad said Iran would notgive in to threats from the United Na-tions.

."If some t~ink they can still speakWIth threatemng language to the Irani-

an nation. they must know that they arebadl"j' mistaken," he said in a speechbroadcast live on state-run television.

"Our nation has made its decision.We have passed the difficult stages," hesaid. "Today, the Iranian nation has ac-quired the nuclear technology."

Drafted by Britain, France and Ger-many with U.S. backing, the resolutionfollows a July 12 agreement - amongthe foreign ministers of those four 'countries, Russia and China - to referTehran to the Security Council for notresponding to the incentives package.

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Lebanon carnage appalls a torn Iraq

• By Henry A. Kissinger

ploded near a mosque in northernBaghdad, wounding two people.

At dusk Monday, gunmen killed a se-nior advisor to the Health Ministry,shooting him in his car. Throughout thecapital, an additional 21 unidentifiedbodies were found by the authorities,many of them with gunshot wounds totheir heads.

On a highway between Tikrit andKirkuk, gunmen killed three police of-ficers and kidnapped two others afterforcing an ambulance off the road Sun-day night, according to an Iraqi policeofficial in Kirkuk. He said that on Mon-day the police found the bodies of theother two kidnapped officers.

In Mosul, a suicide car bomber struckan Iraqi Army checkpoint, killing four,according to an army official.

Separately Monday, U.S. Representa-tive Tom Cole, a Republican from Okla-homa, warned during a visit to Baghdadthat domestic support for a plan to as-sign U.S. troops to police the capitalmight be short-li~ed.

President George W. Bush and Malikiannounced the security plan for Bagh-dad last week in Washington.

'~ericans are not going to be verypatient about having American forcesessentially being police officers andmaintaining order between indigenousIraqi groups," he said.

The New York TImes

ernstate; at the same time, this claim is put forward bya fervent kind of Muslim extremism that has kept theMuslim Middle East unmodernized for centuries.

This conundrum can be solved without conflictonly if Iran adopts a modernism consistent with in-ternational order and a view of Islam compatiblewith peaceful coexistence.

Heretofore, the Six have been vague about their re-sponse to an Iranian refusal to negotiate, except forunspecific threats of sanctions through the UN Secu-rity Council. But if a deadlock leads to de facto acqui-escence in the Iranian nuclear program, prospects 'for international order will dim everywhere. Everycountry, especially those composing the Six, willface growing threats, be they increased domesticpressure from radical Islamic groups, terrorist actsor the nearly inevitable conflagrations sparked bythe proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

A modern, strong, peaceful Iran, by contrast, couldbecome a pillar of stability and progress in the region.

This cannot happen unless Iran's leaders decidebetween representing a cause or a nation, whethertheir basic motivation is crusading or internationalcooperation. The goal of the diplomacy of the Sixshould be to oblige Iran to confront this choice.

Diplomacy never operates in a vacuum. It per-suades not by the eloquence of its practitioners but

also issued a statement Sunday that crit-icized the "outrageous crime" at Qana.

An anti-U.S. cleric, Moktada al-Sadr,said at a news conference Monday thathe was "ready to go to Lebanon to de-fend it if this would stop the war."

"We, the unified Iraqi people, willstand with the Lebanese people to endthe ominous trio of the United States, Is-rael and Britain, which is terrorizingIraq, Lebanon, Mghanistan and other oc-cupied nations," he said. "We do not wantU.S.enterprises in the Middle East."

The increasingly caustic response toevents abroad came on a day rife withcontinuing violence in Iraq.

In central Baghdad on Monday, about20 gunmen wearing Interior Ministryuniforms kidnapped at least 12 peoplefrom a mobile phone company andeight people from the Iraqi-AmericanChamber of Commerce and Industry,an Interior Ministry official said.

Witnesses said the gunmen arrived inpick-up trucks with Interior Ministrymarkings and cordoned off the area,separating female employees from thecrowd and taking the men. Among theabducted was Raad Omar, the Sunni di-rector of the Chamber of Commerce,which was founded three years ago toincrease trade with the United States.

In a drive-by shooting at 9 a.ID.a se-nior intelligence officer, Colonel FakhriJamil Salman, was killed in southwestBaghdad, the Interior Ministry officialsaid. A half-hour later, a car bomb ex-

NEW YORK

The world's attention is focused on the fight-ing in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, but thecontext leads inevitably back to Iran.

Unfortunately, the diplomacy dealingwith that issue is constantly outstripped by events.While explosives are raining on Lebanese and Israelitowns, and Israel reclaims portions of Gaza, the pro-posal to Iran of last May by the so-called Six (theUnited States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia andChina) for negotiations on its nuclear weapons pro-gram still awaits an answer.

It is possible that Tehran reads the almost plead-ing tone of some communications addressed to it as asign of weakness and irresolution. Or perhaps the vi-olence in Lebanon may have produced secondthoughts among the mullahs regarding the risks incourting and triggering crisis.

However the tea leaves are read, the current NearEastern upheaval could become a turning point. Iranmay come to appreciate the law of unintended con-sequences.

For their part, the Six can no longer avoid dealingwith the twin challenges that Iran imposes. On the onehand, the quest for nuclear weapons represents Iran'sreach for IJ?-0~ernityvia the _power_sY~I?~1of the !00d- '

Now Tehran's choice is cast instarker terms

By Damien Cave

BAGHDAD: Several prominent Iraqiclerics and officials on Monday de-livered their stiffest rebukes yet of Is-raeli airstrikes, condemning the civil-ian casualties in' Lebanon as shootings,bombings, and mass kidnappings con-tinued to plague Iraq.

Vice President Adil Abdul Mahdi, a, Shiite, described the Israeli bombingthat killed 56 civilians in Qana, Leba-non, as a "massacre."

Echoing earlier statements made byPrime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki,he said Iraqis of all sects were unifiedagainst the carnage and eager for acease-fire.

"These horrible massacres carried outby the Israeli aggression, like whathappened at Qana, incite in us a spirit ofsolidarity," Abdul Mahdi said in a speechat a memorial for Ayatollah MuhammadBakr al-Hakim, a cleric killed threeyears ago. "It's time for this nation tostand up and stop this aggression."

Maliki, President Jalal Talabani, aSunni Kurd, and Hakim's brother AbdulAziz al-Hakim also spoke at the eventin central Baghdad, offering similarcondemnations of Israel to a gatheredcrowd' of more than 1,000.

In the Shiite slum of Sadr city, hun-dreds of women and children marchedMonday to protest the Israeli attacks.Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, 'Iraq'smost prominent Shiite religious leader,

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

A modern, strong,peaceful Iran couldbecome a pillar of

stability in the region.

by assembling a balance of incentives and risks. It isoften asserted that what is needed in relation to Iranis a diplomacy comparable to that which, in the 1970s,moved China from hostility to cooperation with theUnited States. But China was not persuaded by skill-ful diplomacy to enter this process. Rather, Chinawas brought, by a decade of escalating conflict withthe Soviet Union, to a conviction that the threat to itssecurity came less from capitalist America than fromthe growing concentration of Soviet forces on itsnorthern borders.

The contribution of American diplomacy was tounderstand the significance of these events and toact on that knowledge. The Nixon administration didnot persuade China that it neededto change its priorities. Its role wasto convince China that implement-ing its strategic necessities was safeand would enhance China's long-term prospects.

The challenge of the Iranian ne-gotiation is far more complex. Iranhas reacted to the American offerto enter negotiations with tauntsand has inflamed tensions in theregion. Even if the Hezbollah raids from Lebanon in-to Israel were not planned in Tehran, they would nothave occurred had their perpetrators thought theminconsistent with Iranian strategy.

Iran has not yet made the choice of the world itseeks - or it has made the' wrong choice from thepoint of view of international stability.

The crisis in Lebanon could mark a watershedif it confers a sense of urgency to the diplo-macy of the Six and a note of realism to the

. attitudes in Tehran.Up to now, Iran has been playing for time. The

mullahs seem to seek to accumulate as much nuclearcapability as possible so that, even were they to sus-pend enrichment, they will be in a position to use thethreat of resuming their weapons effort as a means toenhance their clout in the region.

The Six will have to be prepared to act decisivelybefore the process of technology makes the objectiveof stopping uranium enrichment irrelevant.

Well before that point is reached, sanctions willhave to be agreed on. To be effective, they must becomprehensive; half-hearted, symbolic measurescombine the disadvantage of every course of action.

We must learn from the North Korean negotiationsnot to engage in a process involving long pauses tosettle disagreements within the administration and

within the negotiating group, while the other sideadds to its nuclear potential.

A suspension of uranium enrichment should notbe the end of the process. A next step should be theelaboration of a global system of nuclear enrichmentin designated centers around the world under inter-national control - as proposed for Iran by Russia.This would ease implications of discriminationagainst Iran and establish a pattern for the develop-ment of nuclear energy without a crisis with eachentrant into the nuclear field.

But it will not be possible to draw a line between nu-clear negotiations and a comprehensive review ofIran's overall relations to the rest of the world. The leg-

acy of the hostage crisis, the decadesof isolation and the messianic as-pect of the Iranian regime representvast obstacles to such a diplomacy.

If Tehran insists on combiningthe Persian imperial tradition withcontemporary Islamic fervor, a col-lision with America - and, indeed,with its negotiating partners of theSix - is unavoidable. Iran simplycannot be permitted to fulfill a

dream of imperial rule in a region of such impor-tance to the rest of the world.

At the same time, an Iran concentrating on the de-velopment of the talents of its people and the re-sources of its country should have nothing to fearfrom the United States. Hard as it is to imagine thatIran, under its present president, will participate inan effort that would require it to abandon its terroristactivities or its support for such instruments asHezbollah, this awareness should emerge from theprocess of diplomacy. Such an approach would implythe redefinition of the objective of regime change,providing an opportunity for a genuine change in di-rection by Iran, whoever is in power.

It is important to express such a policy in preciseobjectives capable of transparent verification. A geo-political dialogue is not a substitute for an early solu-tion of the nuclear enrichment crisis. That must beaddressed separately, rapidly and firmly.

But a great deal depends on whether a strong standon that issue is understood as the first step in thebroader invitation to Iran to return to the widerworld. For that very reason, America has an obliga-tion to explore every honorable alternative.

Henry A. Kissinger heads the consulting firm Kis-singer & Associates. This article was distributed byTribune Media Services.

LE FIGARO mercredi 2 août 2006

Liban: la France mise sur l'IranPOURParis, le chemin du règle-ment de la crise libanaise passepar Téhéran. Le ministre desAffaires étrangères, PhilippeDouste-Blazy, a rencontré lundisoir à Téhéran son homologueiranien Manouchehr Mottaki(notre photo). Au moment où

10

l'Iran est accusé de souffler surles braises au Moyen-Orient, lechef de la diplomatie française aloué le rôle «stabilisateur» deTéhéran. Du point de vue deParis, l'aide de l'Iran est néces-saire pour négocier un cessez-le-feu au Liban et déployer une

force mlÙtinationale. La Franceattend que l'Iran, qui parraine leHezbollah, manifeste un « espritde responsabilité». Téhéran,pour sa part, attend sans doutedes concessions occidentalesdans le dossier nucléaire.

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

L'armée américaine va devoir renforcer son contingent<DooN-.",o'"CV)

-5'"IV-,

NEW YORK

CORRESPONDANTAnnoncé la semaine du 24juilletpar George Bush et le premierministre irakien, Nouri Al-Maliki,lors de sa visite à Washington, le« plan de sécurité» décidé enurgence rend impossible toutediminution de la présence de trou-pes américaines en Irak avant aumieux l'année prochaine. Il signi-fie même une augmentation deseffectifs dans les prochains mois.

Une mauvaise nouvelle pourle Parti républicain qui espéraitbien un début de retrait, mêmesymbolique, à partir de septem-bre, deux mois avant les électionslégislatives de mi-mandat.

Le « plan de sécurité» consisteà déployer au moins 4 000 Améri-cains et 4 000 membres des for-ces de sécurité irakiennes de plusdans les rues de Bagdad pour ten-ter d'en reprendre le contrôle. Ilsviennent s'ajouter aux 9 000 sol-

dats américains, 8 500 soldatsirakiens et 34 500 policiers ira-kiens déjà présents dans la capita-le. Après sa nomination en mai,M. Maliki avait voulu envoyer unsigne fort.

Les forces irakiennes avaientmultiplié les barrages, les pointsde contrôle mais ont été incapa-bles d'enrayer l'explosion de laviolence entre communautés. Enjuin,3 169 civils irakiens ont ététués contre 1 778 en janvier.

« Moyens inadéquats»Le Pentagone a annoncé ce

week-end que 3 700 hommes dela 172' brigade, basée à FortWainwright, en Alaska, sontenvoyés à Bagdad. Ils disposent devéhicules blindés à huit roues, bap-tisés Stryker, plus rapides etmanœuvrables que les engins àchenilles et plus adaptés aux com-bats urbains. Cette unité déployéeen Irak depuis août 2005, qui

devait rentrer dans les prochainsjours, restera au moins quatremois supplémentaires sur place.

Une décision diversementappréciée par les officiers améri-cains qui estiment que les unitésservant plus de 12mois en Irak per-dent une grande part de leurmoral et de leur motivation. Ilscraignent aussi que renforcer laprésence à Bagdad en retirant dessoldats du reste du pays crée desdifficultésnotamment dans des vil-les comme Mossoul et Kirkollk.Les troupes sont aussi engagéesdepuis un mois dans une opéra-tion pour reprendre le contrôle deRamadi, place forte de l'insurrec-tion sunnite.

Plusieurs spécialistes estimentque les renforts sont à la fois tar-difs et insuffisants. « Les effectifsdevraient au moins êtr~ le double dece qui est annoncé. Le plan est bonmais les moyens totalement inadé-quats », estime Kenneth Pollack,

ancien membre du Conseil natio-nal de sécurité.

Le commandant des forces enIrak, le général George Casey,avait établi un plan de réductionprogressive des troupes américai-nes d'ici à la fin de 2007. Premièreétape, le nombre de brigadesdevait être ramené de 14à 12enseptembre. Environ 7 000 hom-mes ne devaient pas être rempla-cés. Il n'en est plus question. Leseffectifsde 127000 soldats améri-cains aujourd'hui en Irakdevraient même augmenter dequelques milliers dans les prochai-nes semaines.

«Avec ce nouveau plan de sécuri-té, il est impossible de réduire lestroupes cette année. Plus grave, onparle maintenant de 2009 pour arri-ver à rétablir un bon niveau de sécu-rité dans lepays», explique Antho-ny Cordesman, du Centre d'étudesstratégiques internationales .•

E.L.

Iraqi leader defendshis security forcesHe sees units in control by year's endBy Damien Cave

BAGHDAD: President Jalal Talabanidefended Iraq's security forces Wed-nesday against accusations of atrocitiesand said they would assume control ofthe country from U.S. troops by the endoftheyear.

"Iraqi security forces are doing theirduty, but we still expect more of them,"Talabani said at a news conference inBaghdad, surrounded by senior mili-tary and Interior Ministry officials."God willing, by the end of this year wewill bring an end to terrorism."

The vote of confidence came onlyhours before a pair ofbombs at a soccerfield in a Shiite area of western Baghdadkilled at least il people, most of themchildren, and wounded 18.A day earlier,attacks aimed at soldiers and police of-ficers killed at least 44 people. On Mon-day, commandos wearing Interior Min-istry uniforms kidnapped at least 20people from a pair of offices in centralBaghdad.

Talabani, a Kurd, provided no detailsto support his claim that Iraqi forceswould soon provide security for the en-tire country. U.S. military officialsturned over the first of 18provinces toIraqi forces on July 13, but U.S. troopscontinue to fight bloody battles with in-

surgents in AÏ1bar Province, and undera new security plan for the capital an-nounced last week, more U.S. troops aretaking the lead.

U.S. military officials did not imme-diately respond Wednesday to requestsfor comment on Talabani's timetable.

At the news conference, Talabaniseemed primarily concerned withshoring up support for the Iraqi forces.Without naming names, he con-demned politicians who have com-plained that the Interior Ministry em-ployed militias whose memberskidnapped and killed with impunity.Calling Iraqi troops "sacred," he saidthat discussions about the armedforces should be conducted in Parlia-ment, not in the news media.

"Everyone who takes part in the gov-ernment and the democratic processshould speak a certain way when theyaddress the citizens," he said. "Theyshould not talk as they wish and singoutside the flock."

Talabani and Interior Minister Jawadal-Bolani played down accusationsagainst army and ministry officers, sug-gesting that those who have been seenrobbing armored cars and kidnappingdozens of civilians were not representa-tive of the force as a whole.

"We've started to make real progressin establishing and training our em-ployees despite well-known chal-lenges," Bolani said.

Khalef al-Aliyan, a senior member ofthe largest Sunni Arab bloc in Parlia-ment, dismissed Talabani and Bolani'sdefense as an effort to shift attentionaway from rogues who have been al-lowed to undermine trust in authority.

The violence here sent another shud-der through Iraq on Wednesday. Thebombs at the soccer field in westernBaghdad exploded around 8 p.m., send-ing horrified families to a nearby hospi-tal to search for their children.

An officer at Al Aamel police stationwho is leading the investigation said thebombing occurred at a public match be-tween two teams of men mainly in theirearly 20s. About 12 to 15children weresitting on benches watching the matchon the sidelines.

Just before halftime, two men arrivedat the soccer field with sports bags andput them on the ground next to the play-er's bags. When the players finished thehalf and sat down on the benches besidethe children, the two bags exploded.

In central Baghdad, roadside bombsexploded at an intersection wherelaborers were seeking work, killing atleast three people, an Interior Ministryofficial said. A roadside bomb killed asoldier in an Iraqi Army convoy on amain road south of Baghdad.

Fifteen other bodies were foundthroughout Baghdad, many showingsigns of torture.

The New York TImes

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"Merci d'avoir apporté la démocratie au Kurdistan"Sur des chaînes américaines, on peut voir des spots de pub qui vantent la stabilitédu Kurdistan irakien. Le but? Attirer les investisseurs. Un paradoxe quand le reste du paysest en guerre, note le quotidien turc Hürriyet.

'"ooN

::Jel

HURRIYETIstanbul

L'administration kurde dunord de l'Irak vient delancer une campagne depublicité audiovisuelle afin

d'attirer les éventuels investisseursaméricains et anglais dans cetterégion. Baptisée "Le Kurdistan,l'autre Irak", la campagne, préparéedepuis novembre dernier, comprendun certain nombre de films publi-citaires, que les chaînes de télévisionaméricaines ont commencé à diffu-ser depuis la fin du mois de juillet.

Le contrat signé entre la société decommunications américaine Russo,Marsh et Rogers (RM&R) et le gou-vernement irakien s'étale sur plu-sieurs années et prévoit un budget

de plusieurs millions de dollars. L'undes films commence par la phrase:"Merci aux Etats-Unis d'avoir apportéà notre pays la démocratie." Ensuite, ilexplique que le Kurdistan est trèsheureux d'avoir ainsi obtenu la paix,la sécurité et la laïcité.

Le deUXIèmefilm publicitaire estintitulé VAutre Irak. Il rappelle que,en plus des soldats de la coalition,il existe au Kurdistan irakien des

forces de sécurité bien expérimen-tées. Arabes, Kurdes et Occidentauxsont invités à y passer leurs vacancesensemble. Le film se termine par un"Bienvenue au Kurdistan irakien /"

Dans le troisième film, des inves-tisseurs précisent que la questionn'est pas seulement de construire unaéroport: nous apprenons de labouche d'un ingénieur qui travaille

à cette construction qu'il s'agit éga-lement de "bâtir la démocratie". Untechnicien ajoute: "Nous investissonsdans l'avenir", et un jardinierenchaîne: "Nous cultivons l'espoir."Ensuite, une fillette kurde fait le

point: "Partagez nos rêves /" En invi-tant les investisseurs américains auKurdistan, les films montrent lacroissance des activités commercialesdans la région, informent que lesindustries alimentaires produisentdes jus de fruits et de la saucetomate, que les conserveries tournentà plein régime et qu'aucun soldat dela coalition n'y a perdu la vie depuisle début de la guerre en Irak. Il fautnoter, finalement, qu'il existe uneversion de ces films destinée aupublic britannique. Seule dIfférence :les remerciements des Kurdes y vontcette fois aux Anglais. _

Londres craintun éclatement de l'Irak

LE FIGARO4 août2006

GOLFEDans un télégrammeconfidentiel, l'ambassadeurbritannique à Bagdadévoque le spectred'une guerre civile suivied'une division du pays.

SUJETTABOU,l'hypothèse d'unepartition de l'Irak est abordéesans ambages par William Patey,l'ambassadeur de Grande-Bre-tagne à Bagdad. Dans un docu-ment confidentiel rendu publichier par la BBC, le diplomateconfie ses craintes d'une implo-sion de l'Irak. « Une guerre civilede faible intensité et une divisiondefait de l'Irak sont plus probablesà cestade qu'une transition réussieet substantielle vers une démocra-tie stable Il, estime-t-il. À en croirel'ambassadeur britannique,l'Irakrisque de se diviser en plusieursentités avec, au nord, un territoirecontrôlé par les Kurdes, au sud etau centre, dans les régions riches

12

en réserves pétrolières, une domi-nation chiite, et dans un triangleentourant Bagdad, ville en princi-pe multiethnique et multiconfes-sionnelle, un bastion sunnite.

« Si nous voulons éviter detomber dans la guerre civile etl'anarchie, il sera prioritaire d'em-pêcher les milices chiites commel'armée du Mahdi de devenir unÉtat dans l'État, à l'instar du Hez-bollah au Liban Il, prévient WilliamPatey. Observateur attentif del'évolution des mouvements ar-més chiites en raison de la présen-ce des forces britanniques dans lesud du pays, il estime que ces der-nières sont dans l'incapacité des'opposer seules aux milices. Et desommer Londres d'associer l'ar-mée irakienne aux opérations.

Spécialiste de la région,William Patey, qui est arrivé enIrak en juin 2005, a exprimé sesanalyses détonantes dans le der-nier télégramme adressé au pre-

mier ministre Tony Blair et au Fo-reign Office avant son départ deBagdad. Dans ce texte aux alluresde testament, le diplomate dresseun constat pessimiste de l'actiondu couple américano-britanniqueen Irak. « On peut mettre en doutel'espoir du président Bush de voirétablir en Irak un gouvernementcapable de fonctionner et de se dé-fendre tout en étant un allié dansla guerre contre le terrorisme. Il

Puis il conclut: « La situation n'estpas désespérée Il, mais l'Irak va de-meurer « difficile et en désordre Il

pour « les cinq à dix années à ve-nir Il. Selon lui, les « six prochainsmois seront cruciaux Il.

Le chef du Commandementcentral américain (Centcom), quisupervise les opérations de l'USAr-my en Irak, le général John Abizaid,a lui aussi mis en garde, hier, contreun risque de guerre civile en Irak.« Si cela ne s'arrête pas, il est pos-sible que l'Iraksombre dans la guer.re civile », a-t-il déclaré lors d'une

audition devant la commission duSénat sur les forces armées.

Tenues sous le boisseauCe n'est pas la première fois

que des responsables britanniquesou américains en charge du dos-sier irakien prennent en compteun possible éclatement de l'Étatirakien. Hostile à une telle solu-tion, l'ancien ambassadeur améri-cain Peter Galbraith, qui conseilleaujourd'hui le président du Kurdis-tan autonome Massoud Barzani,n'exclut pas cette hypothèse. Maisces projections sont en général te-nues sous le boisseau, car ellesvont à l'encontre des discours offi-ciels de George W. Bush, DonaldRumsfeld ou de Tony Blair. À encroire le premier ministre britan-nique, l'Irak continue à avancervers la démocratie malgré les diffi-cultés du moment. Une marchesemée de cadavres.

THIERRY OBERLÉ

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

"u.s. generals see growing threat ofIraq civil war

war and whether we have to come backto the Congress to get further indica-tion of support," Warner said.

When Abizaid was asked about theprospects for reducing U.S. forces inIraq by the end of the year, he replied,"It's possible, depending on how thingsgo in Baghdad and how Prime MinisterMaliki and his government grab a holdof the security situation."

The general said he was confidentthat the Iraqis understood that theUnited States military commitment toIraq was not open-ended.

In any event, Rumsfeld said it wasdifficult to gauge the ideal number oftroops the United States and its alliesshould have in Iraq.

Too many troops, and the Iraqiswould see them as occupiers, leading tomore unrest. Too few, and the violencecould spiral out of control.

"There's no rule book," Rumsfeldsaid.

The valor and sacrifice of America'ssons and daughters serving in Iraq waspraised by Warner and the committee'sranking Democrat, Senator Carl Levinof Michigan, along with other panelmembers.

But the session was full of sharp, andoccasionally angry, exchanges. For in-stance, Senator Hillary Rodham Clin-ton, Democrat of New York, accusedRumsfeld ofbeing inconsistent over themonths in his assessment of the mili-tary situation.

'I believe that thesectarian violenceis probably as bad

as I've seen it.'

_"We can persevere in Iraq, or we canwIthdraw prematurely, until they forceon the judgment of ground command-ers.

He counseled patience, from the law-makers and their constituents.

"Americans didn't cross oceans andsettle a wilderness and build history'sgreatest democracy only to run awayfrom"a bunch of murderers and extrem-ists who try to kill everyone that they

cannot convert and to tear down whatthey could never build," he said.

Pace sounded the same theme: "Ourenemy knows they cannot defeat us inbattle. They do believe, however, thatthey can wear down our will as a na-tion."

But the committee chairman, SenatorJohn Warner, Republican of Virginia,signaled that political support for theconflict could be fraying.

"I think we have to examine verycarefully what Congress authorized thepresident to do in the context of a situ-ation if we're faced with all-out civil

N *-t..,~:<- <>_ <!;l(_-'

Karen Ble.er/Agence France-Presse

From left, General Peter Pace, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and General JohnAbizaid on Thursday at a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

By David Stout

WASHINGTON: Two senior U.S. mil-itary commanders said Thursday thatthe wave of sectarian bloodshed in Iraqhas heightened the danger that thecountry will slide into all-out civilwar.

"I beliéve that the sectarian violenceis probably as bad as I've seen it, inBaghdad in particular, and that if notstopped, it is possible that Iraq couldmove toward civil war," General JohnAbizaid, the commander of U.S. forcesin the Middle East, told the SenateArmed Services Committee.

A similarly sobering assessment wasoffered by General Peter Pace, thechairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,who said he could envision the presentsituation "devolving to a civil war."

"But that does not have to be a fact,"Pace added. In the long run, he said,peace in Iraq depends not just onAmerican forces helping the Iraqis se-cure their own country but on Iraqis ofdifferent heritages deciding that they"love their children more than theyhate each other."

Abizaid, too, said he remained hope-ful. "Am I optimistic whether or notIraqi forces, with our support, with thebacking of the Iraqi government, canpresent the slide to civil war?" he askedrhetorically.

"My answer is yes, I'm optimisticthat the slide can be prevented."

But the tone of the heining, and thecontinuing carnage in Iraq and the Is-raeli conflict with the Hezbollah mili-tia in Lebanon, was not one of opti-mism.

And it coincided with a report from asenior British diplomat in Baghdadwho, contradicting official policy inboth London and Washington, wrote ina cable to the Foreign Office that Iraq

was closer to civil war and partitionthan democracy.

"The prospect of a low intensity civilwar and a de facto division of Iraq isprobably more likely at this stage than asuccessful and substantial transition toa stable democracy," William Patey,who concluded his tour in Baghdad lastweek, said in an assessment in a final e-cable, the BBC reported.

"The position is not hopeless," thediplomat went on, but he concludedthat, for the next decade, Iraq would r~-main "messy and difficult." (Page 4)

At the hearing in Washington, noth-ing in the testimony of the command-ers, or in that of Defense SecretaryDonald Rumsfeld, pointed to an earlywithdrawal of U.S. fo!ces.

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us to make a stand nearer home," saidRumsfeld, appearing before the panelafter sharp criticism of his earlier in-tention not to go to Capitol Hill. "Butmake no mistake: They're not going togive up whether we acquiesce in theirimmediate demands or not."

Rumsfeld said, as he has many timesbefore, that the possibility of pullingout some American troops depended

"Senator, I don't think that's true,"Rumsfeld said, declaring that the sena-tor would have "a dickens of a time"documenting her assertion that he hadbeen overly optimistic in the past.

But Clinton did not back down andshe said she would introduce evidenceof her assertion into the committee rec-ord.

Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode IslandDemocrat who graduated from West

Point, the U.S. military academy, andserved in the army for 12 years, said thatunder Rumsfeld's tenure the army hadbeen stretched beyond its capacity, asituation he called "a stunning indict-ment of your leadership."

"It think it's an inaccurate state-ment," Rumsfeld shot back, going on tosay that the situation was more compli-cated than Reed had suggested.

The New York TImes

Iraqi Shiites plan Hezbollah rallyThe Associated Press

14

BAGHDAD: Thousands of Shiiteyouths, many wearing white shrouds,converged Thursday on Baghdad for apro-Hezbollah rally.

Moktada al-Sadr, the anti-AmericanShiite cleric, summoned his followersaround the country to attend a massrally Friday in the Sadr City district insupport of Hezbollah as the Shiite guer-rilla group battles Israeli forces insouthern Lebanon.

Crowds began arriving in the easternBaghdad neighborhood late Thursdayand were housed in mosques and com-munity centers.

U.S. Army vehicles were seen Thurs-day evening guarding the approaches toSadr City to prevent clashes betweenShiite and Sun ni extremists. Some inci-dents were reported before the mili-tants even made it to the capital.

The police said that one Sadr followerwas killed by U.S. troops near Mah-moudiya after he brandished a weapon.U.S. officials said two people werekilled after gunmen in three vehiclesshot at the guard towers of a U.S. basenear the city and American soldiersfired back.

At least 15 Sadr loyalists werewounded when bombs exploded near abusload of them as they traveledthrough southern Baghdad to Sadr Cityfrom southern Iraq, said Captain FirasGeti of the police.

About 20 buses carrying Sadr follow-ers headed to Baghdad from Basra, thecountry's second-largest city afterBaghdad. Most of the passengers weredraped in the white shrouds thatMuslims use to wrap their dead, a sym-bol of their willingness to die for Leba-

, non. The rally was supposed to focus onevents in Lebanon rather than in Iraq,where violence between Sunnis andShiites is on the rise.

The presence of so many youngShiite militants, most of them fromSadr's Mahdi Army, added a new anddangerous element to an already vola-tile situation in the capital.

In the latest violence, a bomb

strapped to a motorcycle explodedThursday in the center of Baghdad,killing at least 12people and wounding29, the police said.

The blast occurred near a group offruit and vegetable vendors in a shop-ping district, said Lieutenant AhmedMohammed Ali of the police.

At least 13other people were killed orwere found dead Thursday across thecountry. Among them were nine whosebodies found floating in the TigrisRiver, some of them bound and withbullet wounds.

The Sadr City rally was aimed atmustering support for the Lebaneseguerrillas and against Israel, and by ex-tension against the United States forfailing to force an end to the fighting.

"This is all to demonstrate our sup-

port for the Lebanese people and tocondemn the aggression of the Israelienemy," said Saheb al-Ameri, a Sadraide in Najaf. He added that "they arewilling to face death even if it's on the

'This is all todemonstrate our supportfor the Lebanese people.'

road" to Baghdad.Buses were plastered with pictures of

Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollahleader in Lebanon, who has assumed ahero status in the Arab world for con-fronting the Israelis. The men on boardthe buses waved the yellow flags ofHezbollah and carried banners thatread "Here we are, Lebanon."

One of the men, Muhannad al-Musawi, said that his group was re-sponding to the call made by Sadr "toexpress our solidarity with the fightersin southern Lebanon." He added, "Weare ready for anything, even to go toLebanon."

U.S. officials have blamed Sadr's mi-

1itia for much of the sectarian violence,which escalated after the bombing onFeb. 22 of a Shiite shrine in Samarra.That attack set off a wave of reprisal at-tacks against Sunnis nationwide.

• U.S. soldiers refuse to testify

Four U.S. soldiers accused of murder-ing Iraqi prisoners refused to testifyThursday at a military hearing, The As-sociated Press reported from Tikrit.

The four invoked their right not totestify for fear of incriminating them-selves at the hearing, which is beingheld to determine if they should becourt-martialed for the May 9 shootingdeaths. Instead, their lawyers submittedsworn statements and rested their caseon the third day of the hearing.

The accused initially said the prison-ers were killed because they tried to es-cape, but military prosecutors have saidthey were freed and then shot.

Defense lawyers are arguing that thesoldiers were only following the ordersof a brigade commander to "kill all mil-itary-aged males." A witness, SpecialistMicah Bivens, a medic, said he did notrecall hearing such an order.

lirralb7~0rib\tnrAugust 4, 200?

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The Center Cannot Hold-Iraq

A former U.S. ambassador argues that we must split Iraq into three pieces or face even morebloodshed.Reviewed by David IgnatiusSunday, August 6, 2006; Page BWOl

THE END OF IRAQHow American Incompetence Created a War Without EndBy Peter W. GalbraithSimon & Schuster. 260 pp. $26Last year I asked a retired Israeli intelligence officer what he thought about the Americanstruggle to create a new Iraq. "Forget it," he said with a dismissive wave of his hand. "Iraq isnot a real country. Let it dissolve into its parts."That's pretty much the prescription of Peter W. Galbraith in his elegiac new book, The End ofIraq. While Bush administration officials warn of the dangers of giving up on a united Iraq,Galbraith argues that the worst has already happened: The United States has failed to create astable post-Saddam Hussein government; a bloody civil war is already raging; and the longerthe United States tries to maintain the fiction that the Iraqi killing ground is a viable nation,the more people will get killed. Better that Iraq break into its constituent pieces -- anindependent Kurdistan in the north, an Iranian-dominated Shi astan in the south, a Sunnistanin the northwest."There is no good solution to the mess in Iraq," Galbraith writes. "The country has broken upand is in the throes of civil war. The United States cannot put the country back together againand it cannot stop the civil war. If it scales back its ambitions, it can help stabilize parts of thecountry and contain the civil war. But the U.S. needs to do so quickly."A similar argument for letting Iraq divide along its natural fault lines has been made by Sen.Joseph R. Biden Jr., the leading Democratic Party voice on foreign policy, and Leslie Gelb, aformer president of the Council on Foreign Relations. And it has become an urgent questionfor the Bush administration as the situation on the ground in Iraq continues to deteriorate. ByGalbraith's account, "staying the course" in Iraq won't just waste American lives and money;it will prevent Iraqis from reaching their own form of stability once the American enterprisecollapses, as it inevitably will. "Looking at Iraq's dismal eighty-year history," he writes, "itshould be apparent that it is the effort to hold Iraq together that has been destabilizing.Pursuit of a coerced unity has led to endless violence, repression, dictatorship, and genocide."If partition were an easy process of tearing along neatly perforated lines, it would be hard toargue with the Galbraith-Biden-Gelb proposition. But the reality is that the old Iraq was agenuinely heterogeneous society, with Sunnis and Shiites sharing neighborhoods,inter-marrying, even being members of the same tribes. Saddam Hussein's regime was built onthe idea of" Arabism," a shared identity that transcended religious and ethnic fault lines -- byforce, if necessary. Still, this ideology was remarkably successful. It's common now foranalysts like Galbraith -- who amassed a grim expertise on ethnic bloodshed as the first U.S.ambassador to Croatia -- to say that this Iraqi Arab identity was fused at the point of a gun,but that misses the yearning for modernism and secular society that animated the educatedmiddle class in the old Iraq. The only group that always remained outside this nationalconsensus, in my experience, was the Kurds.The de facto partition of Iraq has already begun, and we can see what a brutal process it is --especially around Baghdad, the epicenter of sectarian violence. Sunni neighborhoods are beingcleansed of Shiites and vice versa; death squads roam the streets and throw up checkpoints;the squads kidnap, torture and kill those from the "other" sect. Looking at Iraq's ravagedcapital, whose security situation even President Bush called "terrible" in late July, it's hard toimagine that things could get worse. But they almost certainly would the moment it became

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clear that the United States had given up on a unified Iraq. That would unleash a violentseparation of populations and wholesale killing until Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish militiasestablished what they considered defensible boundaries. In this initial separation, tens ofthousands could be killed. (The Indian subcontinent still shudders from the trauma of theIndia-Pakistan partition almost 60 years ago.) Once stable ethnic cantons were established, thekilling would diminish but not stop. In Lebanon, the separation phase was followed by 16years of civil war that included sniping and artillery duels across the "green lines" thatseparated the cantons.If things are as bad as Galbraith argues, it's possible that poor, ragged Lebanon may be Iraq'sbest model. Through all the years of its miserable 1975-90 civil war, Lebanon retained apresident, a prime minister, a parliament, a national army. These governing institutions didn'tdo much; real power had devolved to the militias and to the regional powers -- Israel andSyria -- that had occupied Lebanon. But the idea of a Lebanese nation survived, as has beenevident in the way its population has rallied around its tattered flag during recent weeks.A partitioned Iraq, too, would risk being carved up by the regional powers, with Iranenfolding the Shiites in its wings, Turkey setting brutal red lines for the Kurds lest they try towrest away a chunk of its own turf, and the Syrians and Jordanians sharing the thankless taskof trying to maintain order among the Sunnis. Not an appealing prospect.Despite its troubling prescription, Galbraith's book is important because, as much as anyAmerican, he has lived the Iraq tragedy up close and personal. From the beginning, he focusedhis attention on the plight of the Kurds, becoming a kind of adviser and emissary of theKurdish leader (and now Iraqi president) Jalal Talabani. This ardent identification with theKurdish cause has simplified Galbraith's choices in analyzing the Iraq conundrum: It's clearlygood for the Kurds to achieve their historic dream of an independent homeland, but whetherthis separation is better for other Iraqis -- and for the interests of the United States and itsallies -- is a much harder question.Galbraith's fascination with Iraq began in 1984, when he traveled to Baghdad as a staffmember of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He had the gumption to pressthen-Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz about whether Iraq was using poison gas in its waragainst Iran, and he has been asking good, contrarian questions ever since. Galbraith'spassion for the Kurds dates back to 1987, when he traveled to Sulaymaniyah and stumbledupon what he later realized was a genocidal Iraqi campaign, code-named the Anfal, that wasmeant to break Kurdish political and culturallife. He returned again and again, becomingclose to Talabani, Iraqi exile leader Ahmed Chalabi and other key figures in the story.Galbraith sketches some reasons for the American failure in Iraq, such as inadequateplanning for postwar Iraq, lack of understanding of the players and their interests, andongoing policy squabbles in Washington. But such familiar assessments are not the realcontribution of his short book, part-memoir, part-policy treatise. Other books, published andon the way, are doing that big analytical task better. The value of Galbraith's account is thatit's rooted in his personal experience -- why he loathed Sadd am Hussein's regime, why hecame to champion the Kurdish cause, how he watched as America turned a war of liberationinto a bungled occupation.I wished for a little more self-criticism -- an appreciation that the Kurds, for all their tragichistory, have been part of the problem in post-liberation Iraq, too, by pushing their ownagenda for greater self-rule so hard. And I found a bit too easy Galbraith's transition fromenthusiast for toppling the old Baathist tyranny to critic of the postwar occupation. The peoplewho got it wrong sometimes seem to include everyone but Galbraith. But those criticisms don'talter my admiration for the book or its author.So what of the fundamental question he raises? Is the Iraq venture doomed? Are we wastingAmerican and Iraqi lives pursuing a vision of a new, unitary Iraq that has no connection withreality? Should we conclude, as Galbraith does, that Iraq itself is finished? We're all shapedby our personal experiences and contacts in weighing questions like this. When I put the

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matter to some of the Iraqis I have met in the 26 years since I first visited that country, theywarned that, bad as things are now, they would be even worse if America pulled out suddenly.In the end, accepting partition may amount to accepting reality -- but that's a measure of justhow bad things have gotten in Iraq. We made the mistake of rushing into Iraq withoutthinking carefully enough about the consequences of our actions. We should not make thesame mistake in rushing out.David Ignatius is a syndicated columnist for The Washington Post and the co-moderator ofPostGlobal, an online forum hosted by washingtonpost.com.**************************************************

TURKEY NEEDS PLAN B TO BE READY FOR THE DIVISIONOF IRAQThe New Anatolian

8.8.2006

Turkey should be prepared for a possible division of Iraq and develop a plan B, said a recent reportpublished by a major Turkish think-tank. It urged the Turkish government about the need for anew approach towards the Iraqi Kurds and northern Iraq.The Ankara-based InternationalStrategic Research Organization (ISRO), in a 33-page report on Iraq, criticized Ankara's currentpolicy and gave recommendations on a new approach.

"The ideal choice for Turkey could well be a united Iraq with a strong central governmentconsolidating its power in all parts of the country, including northern Iraq. But developments showthe contrary," the report said. "In these conditions Turkey needs plan B."

Stressing that Turkey so far failed to adapt its Iraq policy to the rapidly changing conditions in Iraqand the region, the think-tank warned that without a policy change in the short term Ankara willface grave problems stemming from northern Iraq.

"An independent Iraqi Kurdistan is not necessarily a threat to Turkey. On the contrary, it could bea major advantage," the report claimed.

"The worst scenario for Turkey wouldn't be the division of Iraq but chaos and civil war in northernIraq, the case now in the south. Should that happen Turkey would then border a region wherethere's civil war and the [terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party) PKKcould also reap the benefits ofthat."

The think-tank proposed the Turkish government take new measures to stop alienating the IraqiKurds and win their confidence. It made the following 15 recommendations:

1) Turkey's wrong policies towards the region are alienating it from the Iraqi Kurds, creatingpermanent fear among them of Turkey and pushing them to seek support from other countries.Ankara needs to reverse this trend soon by taking confidence-building measures.

2) The Iraqi Kurds and Turkmens' interests don't necessarily contradict each other. It's in Turkey'sinterests to bring the Iraqi Kurds and Turkmens as close as possible. But in Turkey some politicalgroups are deliberately trying to portray differences between the Turkmens and Kurds as beinggreater than they really are for domestic consumption. But in fact this not only underminesTurkey's interests in northern Iraq but also fuels a greater risk of polarization in Turkey betweenethnic Kurds and others.

3) Ankara needs to do immediate work for greater economic integration between Turkey andnorthern Iraq. This would give Turkey more leverage in possible future scenarios in Iraq -- a unitedor divided one.

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4) It's not in Turkey's interests to let other countries increase their domination in this region. Buttoday countries like the U.S., Israel, Britain, Russia and Iran and many others are undertakingextensive intelligence work in the region and trying to influence the Iraqi Kurdish regionalgovernment. Added to which, in a large part of the region neither the central Iraqi government northe Kurdish regional government have effective control. Turkey, meanwhile, has got very behind inincreasing its influence in the region.

5) Northern Iraq has become an important element which could influence the domestic balancesin Turkish politics. If Turkey doesn't draw up new policies towards the region, the region's impacton Turkey will be more dramatic.

6) Turkey should stop a small security-oriented group from dominating the development andimplementation of policies on the Turkmens and Kurds. Such policies have to date failed to unitethe Iraqi Turkmens and instead caused further divisions among them.

7) Some Turkish groups and units sent to northern Iraq have abused their financial and politicalpower for their individual interests or ideological goals. It has become clear that northern Iraq isconsistently and increasingly becoming a more prominent factor in new crime gangs in Turkey.The weapons and money transfers involved all recent political criminal activities in Turkey, fromthe Atabeyler gang to the shooting of a Council of State judge, were all from northern Iraq.

8) Some groups in Turkey are carrying out secret talks with foreign intelligence officials innorthern Iraq in their personal interests or to achieve their ideological goals.

9) Turkey should introduce new mechanisms and channels to its new approach towards the IraqiKurds. These should include improving bilateral contacts, increasing trade volume, offeringscholarships to Iraqi Kurdish students and starting TV broadcasting in Kurdish and Arabic.

10) Turkey's new policy towards the Iraqi Kurds should focus on two points. First of all, Turkey hasto show the Iraqi Kurds that it isn't hostile towards them and that, on the contrary, it will defendthem. Secondly, Ankara has to show its determination to combat the PKK. But Turkey is currentlygiving counter messages. The majority of Iraqi Kurds seem to perceive Turkey as their mainobstacle and, on the other hand, believe Ankara is not strong or courageous enough to combat thePKK.

11) Iraqi Kurds, in the long term, can contribute to Turkey's efforts to combating separatistterrorism but for that there needs to be official authority, the political will and security forcesready to combat terrorism. If central government cannot do so, it should be done by the regionalgovernment. Turkey should not miss the larger picture by focusing too much on and limiting itselfto the issue of Iraq's territorial integrity.

12) Since Turkey is unwilling to train Iraqi Kurdish militias (peshmerga), this is being done by theU.S.and Israel. But Turkey's military and police are the most experienced in the field and arecurrently training hundreds of foreign students.

13) Turkey should prioritize avoiding terrorism and civil war spreading to northern Iraq. It shouldalso try to contribute to stopping conflict among the Shiites and Sunnis. The civil war in Iraq ispushing Iraqi Kurds to be more independent of regional countries and more dependent more onforeign powers like the U.S., Israel and Britain.

14) Turkey should make itself and the southeast more attractive to the Iraqi Kurds. Ankara shoulddraw up a plan on that.

15) The Iraqi Kurds shouldn't be perceived as limited to two main groups under Iraqi Presidentlalal Talabani and Iraqi Kurdistan region President Massoud Barzani. Ankara should develop itsrelations with other Iraqi Kurdish groups as well and support plurality. Ankara also needs to findways to talk with the Iraqi Kurd public and not limit communication to just with its leaders.

8 August 2006

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UNICEF urges Turkey to teach in KurdishReutersby Emma Ross-Thomas07 August 2006

Reuters-The United Nations Children's Fund's (UNICEF) deputy chief urged Turkey on Fnday to try outteaching its Kurdish children in Kurdish, saYing international examples indicated it would Improveeducational standards

Speaking Kurdish in public used to be forbidden in Turkey and although bans on broadcasting havebeen eased in line with demands from the European Union, It remains a highly charged political issue.But Kul Gautam, deputy executive director of UNICEF, said examples from multi-lingual communitiesfrom Bolivia to India showed that if children are taught initially in their mother tongue they advancebetter. "At the very least, I think it should be tried out, it should be expenmented, because worldwideexperience tells you that it is helpful," Gautam said in an interview.

"This may not be the answer but it could be one answer that I think is worth consldenng .. an answer tobetter enrolment, better educational attainment, better completion of school." Turkey has a pnmaryeducation enrolment ratio of 90 percent, which slumps to 55 percent in secondary school, offiCiai datashows. Literacy rates stand at 95 percent for men and 80 percent for women but those figures hide ahuge divide between prosperous western Turkey and the poor mainly Kurdish Southeast.

While pnvate language schools can teach Kurdish -- an Indo-European language unrelated to Turkish-- the only language of instruction in schools IS Turkish. For decades Ankara denied the eXistence ofthe Kurds as an ethnic group and the European Union, which started accession talks with Turkey lastyear, has criticized Turkey for not doing enough for Kurdish cultural rights.

The Turkish army meanwhile has been battling Kurdish rebels in the mountainous Southeast since1984.

"I think this is something that needs to be considered not as a political issue but truly as an Issue thatneeds to be considered very thoughtfully ... as an educational issue, an academic issue," Gautamsaid. He also said Turkey, which spends 4 percent of gross domestic product on education comparedto a European Union average of 5 5 percent, should Invest more on education. "These are not Justsocial welfare schemes, these are the most powerful investment in a country's economic prospentyand national development, so Turkey needs to do more."

L'alliance de la Turquieavec Israël à l'épreuveLa guerre au Liban,unanimement condamnéeen Turquie, fait resurgirdes sentimentsanti-israéliensdans, ce pay,sprochede l'Etat hebreu.

Istanbul

PEU APRÈSles premières frappesde Tsahal au Liban, des affichesbleues placardées par un grou-puscule d'extrême gauche ontfleuri sur les murs du quartier deBeyoglu, repaire de la jeunessestambouliote. Israël est écrit aumilieu avec le sigle du dollar, $, àla place du « s », celui de l'euro,€, pour remplacer le « e » et uneétoile de David au lieu du « a ».Un sous-titre dénonce: « Une ex-périence humiliante pour l'hu-manité. »Le week-end dernier, deux jeunesartistes, piercings et cheveux enbataille, déambulaient au milieude la foule sur l'avenue d'Istiklal,avec un drapeau américain réali-sé avec des fils de fer barbelés.

La guerre au Liban force la

Turquie au grand écart, une posi-tion de plus en plus douloureuseà tenir. Tiraillée entre, d'un côté,son alliance stratégique avec Is-raël et, de l'autre, la solidaritéavec « ses frères» musulmans etdes sentiments antiaméricains àfleur de peau.

« On ne peut pas justifier unementalité qui massacre des inno-cents, détruit des villes et légitimela violence », martelait le premierministre, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,à l'occasion de son discours télé-visé mensuel à la nation,. lundi31 juillet.

Les avions de Tsahaldans le ciel d'Anatolie

Le gouvernement AKP,isla-mo-conservateur, multiplie lescondamnations contre Israël touten mettant en avant les liens na-turels qui l'unissent à la fois auxPalestiniens et aux Israélienspour se positionner comme mé-diateur dans le conflit proche-oriental.

Ankara était directement in-tervenu auprès du président sy-rien Bachar al-Assad afin d'es-

sayer d'obtenir la libération dusoldat israélien Gilad Shalit, enle-vé par des brigades armées pales-tiniennes à Gaza le 25 juin.

La Turquie est le seul paysmusulman de la région à entrete-nir de bonnes relations avec l'É-tat juif. Les deux alliés ont signéun accord de coopération militai-re en 1996. Les avions de Tsahals'entraînent dans le ciel d'Anato-lie. Fidèles à ce pacte, quelquesrares voix soutiennent le droit àl'autodéfense d'Israël.

« Ne vous laissez pas émou-voir par les images de trois en-fants morts », a par exemple lan-cé Nuri Cilingir, député del'opposition sociale-démocrateCHp, comparant la lutte menéecontre le Hezbollah à celle qui vi-se le PKK.

Mais ce discours est ultrami-noritaire. Soixante-dix députésde l'AKP"du CHP et d'Anavatan-le Parti de la mère patrie - ontdéjà claqué la porte du grouped'amitié turco-israélien du Parle-ment. Avec 263 adhérents sur550 élus, le cercle parlementairesymbolisait la vigueur deséchanges entre les deux pays.

Les déclarations du présidentAKP de la commission des droitsde l'homme de l'Assemblée nevont pas améliorer les relations.Qualifiant les bombardements deTsahal de « crimes contre l'huma-

nité », Mehmet Elkatmis- a livré,jeudi, son analyse: « Il me semblequ'Israël fait payer des gens inno-cents pour le génocide commispar Hitler.»

Manifestations contre Israëldans plusieurs villes

Des manifestations contre Is-raël et ses alliés se déroulentdans plusieurs villes du pays. Pa-rallèlement aux réactions anti-is-raéliennes largement répanduesau sein de la population, desthéories antisionistes sont col-portées notamment par lesgroupes d'extrême gauche.

La thèse du complot judéo-américano-occidental contre lespays musulmans fait recette de-puis l'invasion américaine enIrak. Et dans les cercles isla-mistes, les rumeurs les plus follescirculent.

Comme les origines préten-dument juives du chef d'état-major des armées, Yasar Büyiika-nit. Ou l'introduction par desrandonneuses israéliennes de lafièvre hémorragique de Crimée-Congo, qui a tué une vingtainede personnes depuis le début del'année en Turquie.

LAURE MARCHAND

LE FIGARO5 - 6 août 2006

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Turquie: Des attaques attribuées aux Kurdes font4 morts et 7 blessés

DIYARBAKIR (Turquie), 6 août 2006 (AFP) - 15h21 - Quatre soldats ont été tués et sept personnes blessées dimancheen Turquie dans des attaques menées par des membres présumés du Parti des travailleurs du Kurdistan (PKK), a-t-on apprisde source officielle.

Dans une zone rurale de la province de Gumushane (nord-est), des membres de cette "organisation terronste" ont attiré dansune embuscade un véhicule militaire qui s'est renversé après que le chauffeur eut été blessé et eut perdu le contrôle duvéhicule, a indiqué le gouverneur de la province Veys el Dalmaz à l'agence Anatolie.

Quatre soldats ont été tués et trois autres ont été blessés dans l'incident, a-t-il ajouté.

Un responsable local de la sécurité a attribué cette attaque au PKK, qui revendique l'Indépendance du Sud-Est de la Turquieà majorité kurde et qui est considéré comme une organisation terroriste par la Turquie, l'Union européenne et les Etats-Unis.

Plus tôt dimanche, une mine, activée par télécommande, avait explosé sur le passage d'un train de marchandises dans lesud-est, entre les provinces de Blngol et d'Elazig, blessant 4 gardes de la sécurité.

Des responsables locaux ont attribué l'explosion au PKK, déjà accusé d'avoir commis des attaques similaires dans le passé.

Cinq responsables de la sécurité avaient été tués l'an dernier par l'explosion d'une bombe au passage d'un train dans laprovince de Bingol.

Au moins 94 militants du PKK et 62 membres des forces de sécurité sont morts dans les violences qui se sont multipliéescette année, selon un décompte de l'AFP.

Attentat contre un train en Turquie, quatre blessés __

DIYARBA~IR (T~rquie), 6 août. 2006 (AFP) - 11h49 - Des rebelles kurdes présumés ont fait exploser une mine aupassage d un train de marchandises dans le sud-est de la Turquie, faisant quatre blessés, ont déclaré des responsableslocaux.

L'att~ntat s'est pro~uit sur la voie ferrée :ela.iant. les ~rovinces ,de Blngol et Elazig. Les autorités soupçonnent le Parti destravailleurs du Kurdlstan (PKK), une organisation interdite accusee d'attentats similaires dans le passé.

Les victimes sont des gardes qui assuraient la sécurité du train.

La ré~ellion kurde e~ Tur~ui~ a fait 3~.000 morts depuis que le PKK, considéré comme une organisation terroriste par laTurquie, les Etats-Unis et IUmon europeenne, a déclaré la lutte armée en 1984.

Depui:s le début de. l'année, 94 militants du PKK et 58 membres des forces de l'ordre ont été tués dans le sud-est de laTurqUie, selon un decompte de l'AFP.

Quatre morts dans un attentat près duparti du président irakien

MOSSOUL (Irak), 15 août 2006 (AFP) - 09h45 - Quatre personnes ont été tuées et 36 blessées mardi dans un attentatsuicide à Mossoul (370 km nord de Bagdad) près d'un des plus gros sièges du l'Union Patriotique du Kurdistan du présidentirakien Jalal Talabani, a-t-on appris auprès de la police.

L'explosion s'est produite vers 10h30 locales (6H30 GMT) à Tamim, un des quartiers à l'ouest de la ville de Mossoul.

Kurde, Jalal Talabani est à la tête de l'Etat irakien dont le gouvernement d'union nationale dirigé par le Premier ministre chiiteNouri Al-Maliki est composé de diverses tendances à la fois politiques, ethniques et religieuses.

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The regional manipulator

Buyukanit beats the conspirators

package of incentives offered by the UNSecurity Council's five permanent mem-bers plus Germany. That response mayinclude a proposal, short of full suspen-sion, designed to appeal to veto-holdingwaverers such as Russia and China, whohave long been loth to impose sanctions.

InTehran, officials adhere to the gov-ernment line that Iran provides onlyhumanitarian and moral support to Hiz-bullah. A conservative newspaper re-ported that Hizbullah had politelyturned down requests from "private" Ira-nians thatthey be allowed to join thefighting. There is no sign that Iran hashelped send over the suicide battalionsthat were formed eat;lier this year.

All this is incharacter. Since the be-ginning of George Bush's war on terror,Iran has perfected the art of manipulat-ing regional conflicts while rem~officially above the fray. Iran's new!èhal-lenge is to maintain Hizbullah as a deter-rent to military action against the IslamicRepublic. The trouble is that any multi-national force would be deployed to en-sure that the militia cannot strike Israel.The biggest question, then, is whetherIran would accept such a condition. Atpresent, it seems unlikely.

TEHRAN

It is unclear on what terms Iran would press Hizbullah to cease its fire

"t1. THAT odds on the foreign ministerVV of a prickly Middle Eastern statesitting down to a cordial chat with hisopposite number from a Western coun-try that had, only a few hours before,sponsored a UN Security-Council resolu-tion threatening sanctions against hiscountry? OnJuly 31st,the day the coun-eil said itwould take "appropriate mea-sures" if Iran did not suspend its contro-versial uranium-enrichment plan, Man-uchehr Mottaki, Iran's foreign minister,and Philippe Douste-Blazy, his Frenchcounterpart, spent two hours in Iran'sembassy in Beirut, discussing ways toend the Israeli-Lebanese conflict. Iranhas not hidden its satisfaction thatFrance and others in the EU regard it as apotential agent for peace, and not solely, The anti-Zionist presidentas Israel and the Americans see it, as aninstigator of aggression.

The welcome Mr Mottaki received inBeirut from his Lebanese counterpart,and the contrast it presented with Leba-non's cancellation of a planned visit byCondoleezza Rice, the American secre-tary of state, boosted Iran's self-esteem.Since the conflict started, Iran has baskedin the widespread-but only partiallytrue-perception that the Islamic Repub-lic, as a founder (with Syria) of Hiz-bullah in the 1980s, and latterly as itssuspected main arms supplier, can or-chestrate events in the eastern Mediter-ranean. Yetbehind Iran's bravado thereis worry at the way the war is going.

This week's intensification of Israel'sassault on Hizbullah is raising fears inTehran that Israel may eventually suc-ceed in its stated aim of mauling Hiz-bullah militarily. That would be badnews for the Iranians, who, they haverepeatedly made clear, see Hizbullah asa proxy agent of retaliation should Israelor America blast its nuclear installations.

Iran's hardline president, MahmoudAhmadinejad, reacteâ to the UN resolu-tion by vowing that Iran would not giveup enrichment, though the Iranians saythey will reply, on August 22nd, to a

Iran

Turkish officials note that such para-noia abounds all over the Muslim world.They also insist that if some ordinary Thrkshave negative feelings, it is towards Israelipolicies and not towards Jews in general.

Meanwhile Thrkey's defence ties withIsrael, which mainly involve the secularelite and are hence somewhat fenced-offfrom populist complaint, are still robust.Whether that would remain the case ifThr-key commits troops to peacekeeping inLebanon-at a time when an ever-increas-ing share of Turks put their Muslim iden-tity first-is another story .•

An unfamiliarspectre rises

Turkish anti-Semitism

ANKARA

Thrks have mostly treated the Jewswell, but now anti-Semitism is growing

SHORTLYbefore General Yasar Buyuka-nit took up his job as chief of the general

Istaff, some detractors looked for a trick to'. thwart his elevation. Finally they had it:

they bombarded their compatriots withtext messages, saying the general was aJew, whose real aim was to steer Turkeyeven closer to Israel. In the event, the coun-try's president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, tookthe rare step of personally confirming thegeneral's appointment rather than waitingfor it to be formally announced by the topbrass on August 1St.

In a Muslim country whose elite, atleast, has taken pride in the absence ofanti-Semitism, it is a worrying sign that(falsely) describing a general as Jewishshould be seen as a way to block his path.Another recent warning was a finding bythe Pew Global Attitudes Survey that only15%of Thrks look kindly uponJews.

Such attitudes are a far cry from the per-iod 500 years ago when Ottoman sultansembraced IberianJews fleeing persecutionfrom Catholic monarchs. Indeed, for mostof the Ottoman era, Jews were a prosper-ous, loyal minority, conscious that Chris-tian regimes would have been worse.

Under the Turkish republic proclaimedin 1923, the Jews have had some bad ex-periences-such as the crippling "wealthtax" slapped on all non-Muslims duringthe second world war; those who couldnot pay went to labour camps. But for mostof the time since then, the 25,000-strongJewish minority has quietly flourished.

Now, an increasing number of themsay they no longer feel secure in Thrkey,and recently some community leadershave received death threats. Fears begangrowing after Thrkish suicide bomberswith links to al-Qaeda blew up two syna-gogues in Istanbul in 2003. Although therehas been no more terror, there are signs ofanti-Jewish sentiment gaining ground-such as the hate literature that is appearingon bookstalls across the country.

Meanwhile, some weird conspiracytheories are going around Thrkey. Lastweek, Recai Kutan, the leader of the Islam-ist Saadet Party, called on the governmentto examine claims that Israeli womenmountaineers might be responsible for anoutbreak of a hemorrhagic fever whichhas (in reality) killed more than 20 people.

One Islamic newspaper quoted peoplein Bolu province as saying the Israeli visi-tors had smuggled in giant ticks to transmitthe disease to humans. Also, mainstream

dailies have speculated that behind RupertMurdoch's recent acquisition of the con-servative broadcasting station TGRT lieplans to promote Zionism and America.

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The New York Review August 10, 2006

Mindless in IraqPeter W. Galbraith

Cobra II:The Inside Story of the Invasionand Occupation of Iraqby Michael R. Gordon andBernard E. Trainor.Pantheon, 640 pp., $27.95

Losing Iraq: Inside the PostwarReconstruction Fiascoby David L. Phillips.Perseus, 292 pp., $15.95 (paper)

The Foreigner's Gift:The Americans, the Arabs,and the Iraqis in Iraqby Fouad Ajami.Free Press, 378 pp., $26.00

Ahmad's War, Ahmad's Peace:Surviving Under Saddam,Dying in the New Iraqby Michael Goldfarb.Carroll and Graf, 354 pp.,$15.95 (paper) Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld autographmg a road sign for us soldiers,

Baghdad, Apn130, 2003

1.On the evening of March 19, 2003,Marine Lieutenant Therral "Shane"Childers was part of the first Americancontingent to cross the Iraq-Kuwaitborder. His battalion's mission was tosecure the key oil installations in thesouth and it went smoothly. Iraqi armydefenses were weaker than expectedand the oil wells had not been sabo-taged. Childers's platoon easily seizedits objective, a pumping station, afterwhich ChIlders ordered his men intotheir AAVs (amphibious assault vehi-cles) in preparation for clearing enemyfighters from the nearby bunkers. Intheir minutely chronicled account, CobraII: The Inside Story of the Invasion andOccupation of Iraq, Michael R. Gordon,the chief military correspondent for TheNew York Times, and Bernard E. Trainor,a retired Marine Corps lieutenant gen-eral, describe what happened next:

... a tan Toyota pickup truckbegan to approach Childers's pla-toon. The Marines were not surehow to respond. They had beenprimed to take on Iraqi T-72s, T-55s, and Soviet-designed armoredpersonnel carriers called BMPs-not a lone civilian vehicle. The truckpicked up speed until it was bounc-

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ing across the desert at seventymiles per hour. As it flew by theplatoon, civilIan-clad Iraqis in thecab and bed of the truck raisedAK-47s and sprayed the Marineswith automatic weapons fire. Mostof the bullets ricocheted off anAAV, but one bullet struck Chil-ders just below his flak jacket ....When the day's toll was tallied, theMarines determined that Childershad been the first allied soldierkilled as a result of enemy actionin the war.

Childers's death was a signal thatthe Iraq war was not going as planned.The CIA had prepared the troops toexpect the most formidable oppositionto come from Saddam Hussein's Re-publican Guards and Special Repub-lican Guards, predominantly SunniArab soldiers whose officers at thehighest level were members of Sad-dam's own Tikriti clan. The American

troops were told that the demoralizedregular army, filled mostly with Shiiteconscripts, would not put up much ofa fight and that civilians-at least inthe Shiite south-would welcome theAmericans as liberators. But as theyheaded northward, the US troops facedthe problem of figuring out which

civilians were harmless and which werepotential killers or suicide bombers.Before long, the civilian fighters

became America's most formidableadversary and the tactics used toprotect troops-shooting at vehiclesapproachmg checkpoints too rapidlyor convoys too closely-killed thou-sands of Iraqis and made enemies ofhundreds of thousands.

Many of these irregulars were Sad-dam Fedayeen, a paramilitary organiz-ation led by Uday, his eldest son.Uday, an alcoholic and sadistic serialrapist, was considered too depravedby Saddam to be his successor andthat legacy-along with responsibilityfor the defense of Baghdad-fell toUday's younger brother Qusay. As itturned out, however, Uday's organiza-tion provided the most effective oppo-sition to the Americans (the Republi-can Guards did not put up much of adefense of the capital) and went on toform the nucleus of the insurgency.

I arrived in Baghdad on April 14,2003, as a news consultant to the ABCinvestigative team led by veteran cor-respondent Brian Ross. Before thewar, Brian had broadcast a profile ofUday and one of his first stops inBaghdad was at Uday's riverside resi-

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dence. In the basement of the partiallylooted house, Bob Baer, another ABCnews consultant, made an astoundingdiscovery, the personnel files of theSadd am Fedayeen. We were amazedthat the military had not inspected orsecured such an obvious location andRoss made that point in his exclusiveABC news report. ABC had no furtheruse for the files; but they had obviousvalue for the US military, containingas they did the names and addresses ofthe main resistance to the Americanoccupation. I had thought Ross's storywould arouse some interest from thePentagon but there was no reaction.I then called Paul Woliowitz's office to

see if I could discreetly hand themover to the military. (I was still a pro-fessor at the National War College-and therefore an employee of theDefense Department-and wanted tohelp.) Although we were staying in theIshtar Sheraton, a hotel guarded byUS troops, the deputy secretary ofdefense could not arrange to pick upthese documents before I had to leavethe city.

In the three weeks that followedBaghdad's fall, I was able to go un-challenged into sites of enormous in-telligence value, including the ForeignMinistry, Uday's house, and a wiretapcenter right across Firdos Square fromthe Sheraton. All three had manysensitive documents but even weeksafter the takeover, the only people totake an interest in these documentcaches were looters, squatters (whoburned wiretap transcripts for light-ing), journalists, Baathists, Iraqi fac-tions looking for dirt on political ri-vals, and (possibly) agents of countrieshostile to the United States. Neitherthe Pentagon nor the CIA had a work-able plan to safeguard and exploit thevast quantities of intelligence thatwere available for the taking in Iraq'scapital. That information might haveprovided insight into terrorism-theForeign Ministry documents includednames of jihadists who had come intoIraq before the war-and the incipientInsurgency.

As we now know, Donald Rums-feld's Pentagon had no plan to secureany part of Baghdad. It allowed lootersto destroy Iraq's governmental infras-tructure and to steal thousands of tonsof high explosives, weapons, and radio-active materials. And it had no coher-ent plan for Iraq's postwar gover-nance. Gordon and Trainor retell veryclearly the now familiar story (at leastto readers of The New York Review) of

" the Bush administration's cavalier ap-

proach to postwar issues, but they alsoprovide stunning insights into one keyaspect of the postwar failure: the deci-sion to invade Iraq with too few troops.

In late 2001, Secretary of DefenseDonald Rumsfeld convened a meetingin his Pentagon office to discuss themilitary campaign beyond Afghan-

istan. Lieutenant General Greg New-bold, the deputy for the Joint Chiefsof Staff responsible for operations,outlined OPLAN 1003-98, the contin-gency plan for invading Iraq. Gordonand Trainor describe what happenednext:

As Newbold outlined the plan,which called for as many as500,000 troops, it was clear thatRumsfeld was growing increas-ingly irritated. For Rumsfeld, theplan required too many troopsand supplies and took far too longto execute. It was, Rumsfeld said,the product of old thinking and theembodiment of everything thatwas wrong with the military.

[The chairman of the JointChiefs of Staff, General RichardB.] Myers asked Rumsfeld howmany troops he thought might beneeded. The defense secretarysaid in exasperation that he didnot see why more than 125,000troops would be required andeven that was probably too many.Rumsfeld's reaction was dutifullypassed to the United States Cen-tral Command.

Trainor and Gordon present a dev-astating picture of Rumsfeld as abully. Convinced of his own brilliance,Rumsfeld freely substituted his oftenhastily formed opinions for the consid-ered judgments of his military pro-fessionals. He placed in the most se-nior positions compliant yes-men, likeMyers, and punished those who ques-tioned his casually formed judgments.He enjoyed belittling his subordinates.The day before the September 11attacks, Rumsfeld told a Pentagonmeeting that the Defense Departmentbureaucracy "disrupts the defense ofthe United States and places the livesof men and women in uniform at risk."His aides followed the same approach:Steve Cambone, Rumsfeld's closestaide, "jested that Rumsfeld thoughtthe Army's problems could be solvedby lining up fifty of its generals In thePentagon and gunning them down."

It was not an atmosphere thatencouraged dissent. But to theireverlasting discredit, America's most

senior generals did not stand up toRumsfeld as he and his ideologueswent forward with a plan they knewwould not work-at least not untilafter they had retired and the conse-quences of Rumsfeld's careless ap-proach were blindingly obvious. GregNewbold, who later joined the revoltof the generals, told Gordon andTrainor of his reaction to Rumsfeld's125,000-troop figure:

My only regret is that at the time Idid not say "Mf. Secretary, if youtry to put a number on a missionlike this you may cause enormousmistakes. . . . Give the militarywhat you would like to see themdo, and then let them come upwith it. I was the junior guy in theroom, but I regret not saying it."

Men who had put their lives on theline in combat were mostly unwillingto put their careers on the line tospeak out against a plan based on

numbers pulled out of the air by acranky sixty-nine-year-old.

Fortunately for the US troops whohad to invade Iraq, they were initiallyup against an adversary who was alsoconvinced of his own military genius.Sadd am Hussein knew it made no stra-tegic sense for the US to invade Iraqand therefore he assumed it wouldn'thappen. He had maintained ambiguityabout whether he had WMDs not be-cause he had something to hide but tointimidate the two enemies aboutwhom he really was worried, the Irani-ans and Iraq's Shiite majority.

Even after the invasion began, ac-cording to Gordon and Trainor, Sad-dam could not quite believe the UnitedStates intended to go all the way toBaghdad. He did not want to destroybridges that might have slowed theAmerican advance (since they wouldbe needed to move troops to put downan expected Shiite uprising) and hedevised his own plan of concentric cir-cles for the defense of the capital. IraqiLieutenant General Raad Majid al-Hamdani identified the Karbala Gap-an agricultural area between MilhLake and the city of Karbala-as a cdt-ical bottleneck for the undermannedAmerican invasion force and sought toredeploy two Republican Guard divi-sions to take on the enemy. QusayHussein, Saddam's more sober son, ex-plained that the plan for the defense ofthe capital had been decided and Ham-dani's job was to carry it out. Thus thetwo opposing armies had plans dic-tated by armchair strategists both of

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whom made the mistake of assumingthe enemy would think as they would.

Saddam could not imagine that theUnited States would see an advantagein replacing him with a pro-Iranian,Shiite-dominated regime. Knowingvery little about American politics, hecould not grasp the ideological fer.vorof the Pentagon neoconservatives whobelieved Iraq's democratic transfor-mation would revolutionize the Mid-dle East. Rumsfeld and the neoconser-vatives could not imagine that Iraqiswould not embrace liberation and pro-Western democracy and they assumedthat both the invasion and occupationto follow would be easy. For the Amer-ican generals, to challenge the pettytyrant on the Potomac could haveended their careers; for their Iraqicounterparts, taking on the tyrant onthe Tigris could have ended their lives.

2.In Losing Iraq: Inside the Postwar Re-construction Fiasco, David L. Phillipsputs forward the thesis, now widely ac-cepted among the war's critics, that theState Department had a plan for post-war Iraq which Rumsfeld's Pentagonignored. Phillips was a part-time spe-cial adviser to the State Departmentwho worked on the Future of Iraq Pro-ject, a $5 million State Department ef-fort, initiated in March 2002, to in-volve Iraqi exiles (and the Kurds) indeliberations about the country's fu-ture. The project ultimately producedthirteen reports running to more thantwo thousand pages on a variety ofpostwar issues from oil to security. Themost contentious, however, related toIraq's political future. Phillips pro-vides a clearly written account of thecontest between Ahmad Chalabi, who

wanted an interim government to beselected from among the exiles beforethe invasion, and the State Depart-ment, which wanted Iraqis both tocommit themselves to a unified stateand also to accept that most of the de-tailed arrangements for postwar gov-ernance would be left for the future.

Phillips argues that the State De-partment project provided a coherentstrategy for postwar Iraq that thePentagon neoconservatives recklesslyrejected without providing any alter-native plan of their own. That is debat-able. Many in the State Departmentsaw the project as a make-work exer-cise intended to keep Iraqi exiles busy.The Kurds thought it irrelevant, andthus allowed the political project to goforward without reference to their core

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demand for continued de facto inde-pendence. And Ryan Crocker, theState Department official directly re-sponsible for the project, later toldJerry Bremer, the US administratorfor Iraq, that "it was never intended asa postwar plan."

The Bush administration, however,used the Future of Iraq Project to de-ceive an anxious Congress into believ-ing that it had a plan for the postwarperiod. At a February 11, 2003, SenateForeign Relations Committee hearingon the future of Iraq, Under Secretaryof State Marc Grossman told thecommittee that "last March the Bushadministration announced and hasstepped out on what we call a Futureof Iraq Project ... not to have an aca-demic discussion but to considerthoughts and plans for what can bedone immediately." The project was,said Grossman, a roadmap for Iraq's

political future: "One of the reasonsthat we have' spent so much time andso much effort on these Future of IraqProjects, so that we have a way for-ward, we have an idea for a constitu-tion, we have an idea for laws." Doug-las Feith, the Pentagon's number threeand the administration's point man forpostwar planning in Iraq, secondedGrossman's endorsement of the project.

Three months later, Jerry Bremerarrived in Baghdad to be Iraq's post-war administrator. The Bush adminis-tration never told him the Future ofIraq Project existed; by his own ac-count, he learned about it in the pressmuch later. Fortunately for PresidentBush, members of Congress haveshort memories -and no one has calledhis officials to task for grossly misrep-resenting a project they themselvesnever took seriously.

Right-wing reviewers savaged Los-ing Iraq on the grounds that Phillipshad not traveled to Iraq during thereconstruction period about which hewrites and that much of the book isdrawn from press accounts. In fact, thefirst 120 pages (out of 224 pages oftext) are largely based on the author'spersonal observations of a dysfunc-tional administration, which is why hisbook makes conservatives so angry.Phillips, a longtime human rights ad-vocate for Iraq's Kurds, made twotrips to Iraqi Kurdistan before the war(in 1992 and 2002). The Pentagon-sponsored tours favored by so manyexperts-which Phillips is accused ofavoiding-take place within a cocoonso removed from thé realities of Iraqas to be worse than worthless.

Phillips makes an unconscionable

number of factual mistakes, averagingas many as one per page. He has, forexample, the wrong dates for sucheasily verified events as congressionalhearings, the Algiers Accord, Saddam'saccession to power, and the latestTurkish elections. He asserts that aproposed US aid package would haveamounted to $97,000 per Turk whenthe actual figure was around $300.Nor did the Iran-Iraq War begin withthe invasion of the Shatt al-Arab,which is a river. Some of the errorsare hard to explain. In December 2002Phillips attended a conference of theIraqi opposition in London. He quotesa speech he says was given by Bakral-Hakim, Iraq's most prominent Shi-ite politicalleader. Bakr al-Hakim, how-ever, was not at the London confer-ence. His brother Abdul Aziz al-Hakimwas there, but to confuse the two isanalogous to thinking one was listen-ing to the President when in fact thespeaker was the governor of Florida.

3.Fouad Ajami, a professor at SAIS, theJohns Hopkins international studycenter in Washington, has traveled inpostwar Iraq both on Pentagon toursand with Iraqis. Born into a LebaneseShiite family, Ajami is a harsh critic ofthe Middle East's fossilized Sunm Arabregimes; his book The Foreigner's Gift:The Americans, the Arabs, and theIraqis in Iraq is full of justified outrageat their unthinking bias against Iraq'snew Shiite-dominated order. Ajamland I share many friends in Iraqamong the secular liberals who havedreamed for decades of the country'sdeliverance from Saddam Hussein andhave devoted their lives to making thispossible. Today a few of these men,such as Iraq's Kurdish Deputy PrimeMinister Barham Salih, are working tobuild an inclusive multiethnic anddemocratic culture in Iraq.

But I am far more pessimistic thanAjami about their prospects for suc-cess, a conclusion that sadly seemsconfirmed by the appalling violencethat continues in Baghdad and else-where. My book on the subject iscalled The End of Iraq: How AmericanIncompetence Created a War WithoutEnd. * Ajami's title reflects his beliefthat Saddam's ouster was an Ameri-can gift to Iraq; unfortunately, he failsto consider the full costs to the UnitedStates, not only the lost lives and themoney spent but the administration'sparalysis in the face of much more se-rious threats from Iran and North

• Korea, as well as America's increasing

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for Iran. Personally, I believe thatIraq's long-oppressed Shiite majorityis entitled to set up the kind of statethat it democratically chooses. But the

by the Republicans on a House sub-committee headed by CongressmanHenry Hyde to which there was an un-classified Democratic rebuttal. Risennever told his readers this, and in factwrote his story in a way that wouldhave readers believe the documentswere something different from the Re-publican report. I called Doyle Mc-Manus, the Los Angeles Ttmes Wash-ington bureau chief, to complain. Risen,he explained, had gotten the documentsfrom the Republicans on Hyde's com-mittee and had promised to disguise thesource, which also meant he couldn'tmention the rebuttal. As McManus ad-mItted, only the Los Angeles Timesreaders were in the dark since both theClinton administration and subcom-mittee Democrats knew exactly whathad been leaked (both had been giventhe GOP report). Several ofthe top Re-publican staff on the Hyde subcommit-tee came from the House IntelligenceCommittee, then chaired by PorterGoss, and I was told later that the FBI,in tracing the leak, considered one ofthem a prime suspect. (Like most leakinvestigations, this one was inconclu-sive; the other suspect was a Republi-can congressman, according to a pressreport.) Goss, whose disastrously in-competent tenure at the CIA's helmwas chiefly distinguished by rantsagainst leakers, was silent about thisloss of sensitive intelligence. It camefrom his fellow Republicans andserved their shared partisan purpose.

~ In 2004, Chalabi became a victim of~ the same mentality, one that is pre-{l pared to sacrifice intelligence sources~ and methods for partisan purposes. Heli:;~ had personally estranged Bush by cav-~ alierly dismissing the false intelligence8 about WMDs ("We are heroes in error,"~ Chalabi told the Sunday Telegraph.~ "The tyrant Saddam is gone and thet.:.l Americans are in Baghdad. What was

said before is not important.") The ad-ministration's ties with him were in-creasingly seen as a politicalliability.

The eclipse of Chalabi and his fellowsecular Shiites has left the religiousparties in full command of Iraq's gov-erning Shiite alliance. Ajami, who isreverential in his descriptions of Iraq'ssenior ayatollah, Ali al-Sistani, is con-vinced Iraq's Shiite clerics do not wantan Iranian-style religious state and hechallenges the claims of those (includ-ing me) who assert that the war has re-sulted in an enormous strategic gain

villain, and Condoleezza Rice, thennational security adviser, said hewould be investigated. It seems to meunlikely that Chalabi knew for a factthat the US was monitoring Iraniancommunications; but, being a cleverman, he may have guessed that thiswas so and cautioned the Iranians notto report their conversations throughdiplomatic channels. The Iranianscouldn't really be sure their codeswere compromised until the Bushadministration leaked the interceptedcable along with other sensitive infor-mation from the Iranian cable traffic.Thus the compromise to US nationalsecurity came from Risen's source inthe US government, not Chalabi.Risen knew this, as did every intelli-gence professional. But the New YorkTimes readers were kept in the dark.

The incident says more about intelli-gence reporting than it does aboutChalabi. Reporters, like Risen, whocover the intelligence agencies dependon their sources in a way other re-porters do not. As a result, they areoften

lat the mercy of their source's

political agenda, which they cannotafford to question or disclose, lest theleaks dry up. I learned this the hardway when, in December 1996, the LosAngeles Times published a story byRisen (then a reporter for that paper)that was highly critical of Clinton ad-ministration policy in Bosnia. It cited"hundreds of pages of classified docu-ments" and compromised intelligence

Zagreb where I was US ambassador.The "hundreds of pages" were in

fact a highly partisan, classified report

US Speaker of the House Denms Hastert, left, wllh Iraqi Speaker of the ParliamentMahmoud al-Mashhadam, right, and his mterpreter, at US Ambassador Zalmay

KhaLiLzad's residence m the Green Zone, Baghdad, June 2,2006

the US had intercepted an Iranian -sources in a way that potentially jeop- \diplomatic cable in which the Iranian ardized the safety of the embassy in'intelligence chief in Baghdad said thatChalabi told him the US had crackedthe Iranian codes and was monitoringtheir messages. Chalabi became a

isolation in the world. BuChe has con-tributed to public debate by emphasiz-ing that there were Iraqis who seri-ously wanted a democratic change ofregime, and that they should not beconfused with the Pentagon's neocon-servatives who, without comprehend-ing the difficulties, imagined theycould transform the Middle East.

In the two national elections held in2005, Iraqis voted according to theirethnic and religious identities and notfor political programs. This has side-lined the Shiite liberals, includingAhmad Chalabi, who failed to Willenough votes for a smgle seat in Iraq'sCouncil of Representatives. Well be-fore he was rejected by Iraqis, Chalabihad become a pariah not just to the

war's critics-who blamed him forduping the administration into warwith false intelligence, including claimsabout WMDs, and promises of a friendlywelcome for the American forces-butalso to his one-time patrons in the Bushadministration. Ajami attributes the hos-tility of the Bush administration, cor-rectly in my view, to Chalabi's refusalto kowtow to administration policy onissues ranging from de-Baathificationto the investigation of corruption inthe UN oil-far-food program. But thebreaking point came with the bizarreaccusation by the Bush administrationthat Chalabi was leaking sensitive in-telligence to Iran.

On June 2, 2004, James Risenreported in The New York Times that

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evidence from two national elections,the Shiite constitutional program, andthe Islamic rule already in place in thesouth of Iraq makes it clear that theywant a theocracy, with many featuresborrowed from the Iranian model.

4.Michael Goldfarb's Ahmad's War,Ahmad's Peace: Surviving Under Sad-dam, Dying in the New Iraq should beread by anyone who wants to under-stand the bitter disappointment felt byliberal Iraqis as the hope tor a betterfuture after Saddam vanished, thanksboth to American incompetence andthe indigenous forces unleashed by theinvasion. Goldfarb, a London-basedreporter for NPR, arrived in IraqiKurdistan on March 18, 2003, the daybefore the war began, hoping to findsomeone who had suffered under Sad-dam Hussein and then report on hisliberation. Ahmad Shawkat, his fifty-two-year-old interpreter, turned outto be just such a person.

Shawkat was a Shabak, ethnicallyKurdish but Shiite by religion whilemost Iraqi Kurds are Sunni. TheShabaks do not live in the separateKurdistan region, and most of them donot share the Kurds' desire for inde-pendence. Shawkat was born in Mosulto a family that had recently arrivedfrom a nearby village and were becom-ing part of Iraq's middle class. Amidthe turmoil that followed the over-throw of the monarchy in 1958, Shaw-kat's father, a butcher, died and thefamily was forced to return to their dirt-poor village. A year later, they returnedto Mosul and Shawkat eventually en-rolled in the university there. A promis-ing career seemed open to him, butpolitics soon intervened. Shawkat hadbeen active in the pan-Arab Nasseritemovement of the 1960s but because hewas not himself an Arab, he was ex-cluded from any position of leadership.

Under Saddam Hussein, Shawkatwas arrested, tortured, and conscriptedinto the army in the Iran-Iraq War. Hefled to Kurdistan after a safe havenwas created there following the firstIraq war. He tried to escape to Jordanand was arrested -at the border carry-ing an anti-Saddam article he had writ-ten. He was imprisoned and certain hewould be executed. Instead, he was re-leased in the October 2002 amnesty,after being brought personally beforeSaddam to make an apology (the dis-tracted dictator forgot to ask for theapology which Shawkat then didn'toffer). He went back to Kurdistan andeventually met up with Goldfarb.

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His story reflects the experience of ageneration that emerged from povertywith Iraq's new-found oil wealth andthen was destroyed by Sadd am Hus-sein's wars and cruelty. Unlike somany other Iraqis, Shawkat engagedin numerous acts of defiance-somelarge and some small-that preservedhis dignity but only at great cost tohimself. Goldfarb's account brilliantlycaptures the turmoil of Iraqi historysince the fall of the monarchy and hegives an accurate sense of the differentreligious and ethnic components ofnorthern Iraq.

Shawkat returned to Mosul after theliberation only to see Major General

David Petraeus install a Baathist asmayor while keeping in power manyofficials of the old regime. It hasbecome conventional wisdom thatPetraeus was right when he workedwith the old regime while Bremer waswrong when he barred the Baathistsfrom power. But we have to ask whatmessage was being conveyed whenthose who heroically resisted Sadd amHussein were ignored while those re-sponsible for atrocities-either directlyor by their complicity-continued torule. In the end, Petraeus's strategyfailed in Mosul. He inadvertentlyarmed the insurgents, and Mosul re-mains one of Iraq's most dangerouscities. Shawkat founded a newspaperthat used Iraq's new press freedoms toprotest against this new form of theold order. He was murdered after ig-noring a succession of death threats.

Goldfarb contrasts the casualnesswith which the Americans approachedthe occupation with the deadly conSe-quences for his friend. His prose re-flects his understandable outrage whenhe writes about how the Coalition Pro-visional Authority

had been turned into an exten-sion of the Bush-Cheney '04 re-election campaign. Other nations'professional foreign-service offi-cers found it shocking that seniorCPA figures attended meetingswith their Bush-Cheney lapel pinson .... Didn't they know they wererepresenting all Americans, notjust the president's supporters?

Goldfarb describes a young Repub-lican, sent by the Bush administrationto instruct the Iraqis on democracy,who explained to a gathering of tribaland community leaders assembled atthe Baghdad Hunt Club that "a politi-cal party exists to channel power. ...Once you have political power, thenyou can create, you can do what you

want with government, right?" Gold-farb comments:

To people who had survived theBa'ath, a political party that reallyknew how to channel power, thelecture must have seemed ridicu-lous .... By now I was full of slow-burning anger. My friend Ahmadhad died for this? So some kid couldstand inside a privately guardedcompound, explaining that "a po-litical party exists to channel power"on a street guarded by Americansoldiers in a city where, one yearafter the overthrow of Saddam, theoriginal meeting site [at a BaghdadHotel] was so insecure that localpolice could not defend it? Thiswas bringing freedom and democ-racy to Iraq? The most powerfulnation in history had rendered it-self utterly powerless here.

Goldfarb delivers a final devastatingverdict on Iraq: "In a better world,I would have written a book withAhmad rather than about him .... Thebook would have been about thehopes the Bush administration's over-throw of Saddam brewed up and howthey were dashed through partisancarelessness and-Lord, help us all-sheer laziness."

5.While I was in Iraq in June, Americanforces killed Abu Musab al-Zarqawiand, on the same day, Iraq formed its

government of national unity. Pre si-d~nt Bush greeted these developmentswIth unusual restraint and announcedhe was convening a two-day CampDavid summit to review his Iraq stra-tegy. Any hopes that there would be aserious rethinking of Iraq policy weredashed when it turned out that thesummit was really a ruse so that Bushcould fake out his own cabinet byappearing on a videoconference fromBaghdad when they expected to seehim at the presidential retreat forbreakfast. The President was soimpressed with his own stunt that hehad the White House press officeput out the word that Iraqi PrimeM.inister Nouri al-Maliki had only fivemmutes' notice of his arrival notunderstanding that this undercut' bothMaliki and Bush.

On his return, Bush held a press con- 'ference during which, it seemed, hecould barely contain his enthusiasm. Inresponse to a question about progressin providing electricity, producing oil, I

and controlling violence, he swerved

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into a disëussion of his encounter withthe speaker of Iraq's parliament, Mah-moud al-Mashhadani. The Presidentdidn't seem to recall his name butreadily remembered his religion:

The Sunni-I was impressed, bythe way, by the Speaker-DennyHastert told me I'd like him;Denny met with him. And I wasimpressed by him. He's a fellowthat had been put in prison bySaddam and, interestingly enough,put in prison by us. And he made adecision to participate in the gov-ernment. And he was an articulateperson. He talked about runningthe parliament. It was interestingto see a person that could havebeen really bitter talk about theskills he's going to need to bring

people together to run the parlia-ment. And I found him to be ahopeful person.

They tell me that he wouldn'thave taken my phone call a yearago-I think I might have sharedthis with you at one point intime-and there I was, sitting nextto the guy. And I think he enjoyedit as much as I did. It was arefreshing moment.

The incurious White House presscorps never asked the obvious ques-tion: Why had the United States jailedal-Mashhadani? According to Sunnisand Shiites at the top levels of govern-ment in Iraq, al-Mashhadani was amember of, or closely associated with,two al-Qaeda-linked terrorists groups,Ansar Islam and Ansar al-Sunna. The

~ 10août 2006

first operated until 2003 in a no man'sland high in the mountains betweenIraqi Kurdistan and Iran while the sec-ond has been responsible for some ofthe worse terrorist attacks on Iraq'sShiites and Kurds. The Iraqis say theygave the Americans specific intelli-gence on al-Mashhadani's affiliationswith those groups and his actions insupport of terrorists.

None of this seems to have matteredto a president who is as casual in hisapproach to national security as hisdefense secretary. At the same pressconference Bush repeated that "theAmerican people have got to under-stand that Iraq is a part of the war onterror." 0

The New York Review

August 10, 2006

Fièvre anti-Europe

60% DES TURCSPENSENT QUE LEMANQUE DE FOIRELIGIEUSE ESTNÉGATIF.

TURQUIE

Les Turcs bouderaient-ilsl'Europe? Après avoir

frappé à la porte de Bruxel-les, la Turquie serait, à encroire un sondage, en trainde verser dans un profondconservatisme religieux.Une réaction qui serait di-rectement liée aux ater-moiements de l'Union euro-péenne à accepter en sonsein cette nation de 80 mil-lions d'habitants, à 98 %musulmane.Selon l'étude, conduite par

deux universités d'Istanbul,60% des Turcs estimentdésormais que le manquede foi religieuse est res-ponsable de leursproblèmes quoti-diens. Plus inat-tendu, 46% d'entreeux veulent confierleurs enfants à desécoles religieusesdans un pays où l'éducatIOnmusulmane fut longtempsbannie.Ce sondage place dans l'em-

barras les conseillers duPremier ministre, RecepTayyipErdogan, qui, malgréson étiquette d'islamiste,a fait de la voie vers l'Eu-rope son cheval de bataille.Une stratégie qui lui a valuune grande popularité etpermis d'élargir l'assise de

son parti, l'AKP(Partide la justice et dudéveloppement).Il est vrai que les ré-serves européennesà une intégration ra-pide de la Turquie

constituent une belle épinedans le pied des islamistesau pouvoir. D'autant quel'équipe d'Erdogan s'est

révélée davantage proeu-ropéenne que les militaires,longtemps au pouvoir et quidisposent toujours d'unegrande influence dans lepays. Qu'importe, certainsbarons de l'AKPentendentprofiter du durcissementde l'électorat turc. L'un deses idéologues, le ministredes Affaires étrangères,Abdullah Gül, enfonce leclou:« Desgens modérés etlibéraux en Turquie sont entrain de devenir anti-amé-ricains et anti-UE »Crainte de l'isolement delaTurquie ou revendicationd'un conservatisme innédes islamistes turcs? Plu-sieurs opposants à Erdoganestiment que sa vraie stra-tégie est de remplacer ledogme laïque par une ré-publique théocratIque. Unetâche rendue plus facileavec le refus de Bruxelles.L'armée, elle, temporise.La nomination d'un dur àla tête de l'état-major, YasarBüyûkanit, ancien patronde l'armée de terre, dé-montre que les partisansde la laïcité n'ont pas ditleur dernier mot _OLIVIER WEBER

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

L'Iran fait peur sans la bombe,qu'en sera-t-il avec elle?

LE 31 JUILLET,après deuxsemaines de discussionsentre les membres duConseil de sécurité, le vo-

te de la résolution 1696 est enfin in-tervenu avec une belle majorité:14 voix contre 1. Trois ans après lespremières indications décisivesd'une violation par Téhéran de sesengagements internationaux, et sixmois après la transmission du dos-sier nucléaire iranien au Conseil desécurité, c'est une victoire un peutardive, de surcroît limitée. Il fau-dra en effet une autre réunion mi-nistérielle avant toute nouvelle dé-cision du Conseil au cas où l'Iranne tiendrait pas davantage comptede cette résolution que de la décla-ration présidentielle de mars. Maisla preuve est tout de même faite- une fois de plus - que ce n'est pasWashington et les capitales euro-péennes qui veulent obtenir seulesla suspension des activités d'enri-chissement et de retraitement surle sol iranien. Les cinq membres duConseil de sécurité ont trouvé unaccord pour rendre désormais cet-te suspension obligatoire, et l'Iran aun mois pour s'exécuter.

Un seul pays a voté contre larésolution. Cette voix rebelle estcelle du Qatar, et son vote ne sau-

rait être interprété seulement com-me une protestation indirecte auxbombardements israéliens au Li-ban, et plus particulièrement à latragédie de Cana. Il exprime aussila peur que les pays de la régionont désormais de Téhéran. Le Qa-tar n'a pas la moindre sympathiepour l'Iran. Les deux pays ont mê-me des diffarends territoriauxconnus. La nature exacte du lienavec la crise libanaise n'est pas né-cessairement celle qui vient immé-diatement à l'esprit. Car l'interpré-tation la plus répandue à NewYorkau sein des délégations est que Té-héran a eu un rôle décisif dansl'origine du conflit. Personne necroit à une initiative isolée du Hez-bollah le 12 juillet. L'attaque a eulieu après une rencontre avec Ja-vier Solana à Bruxelles du principalnégociateur iranien, Ali Larijani,qui ne s'est pas même donné lapeine de feindre un intérêt quel-conque pour la proposition élabo-rée le 1" juin par les cinq membrespermanents et l'Allemagne. Le re-tour au Conseil de sécurité, uneéchéance que Téhéran a toujours

28

Par Thérèse Delpech *

« L'AlEAne contrôleplus la productionde centrifugeuses»

redoutée en raison de ses consé-quences politiques et écono-miques - même sans l'adoption desanctions - était probable, et les

réponses étaient préparées delongue date à Téhéran. L'attaque aaussi eu lieu peu avant le Sommetdu Ga à Saint-Pétersbourg, où l'af-faire iranienne devait être abordée.Compte tenu de ces échéances, etdes liens idéologiques, politiqueset militaires du Hezbollah avec Té-héran, il est normal de se poser desquestions sur une possible ma-nœuvre de diversion. Les déléga-tions réunies à New Yorkpensentconnaître la réponse et en dédui-sent parfois que l'Iran peut prendred'autres initiatives déplaisantes.

Mais si l'un des éléments qu'ilfaut retenir du vote de Doha est la

façon dont Téhéran tétanise les ca-pitales du Moyen-Orient, ilfaut entirer quelques leçons. Cela signifieen effet tout d'abord que l'Iran est àprésent crédité d'une capacité denuisance considérable, qui ne faitque croître avec le temps. S'il estune crainte générale dans la ré-gion, à l'exception notable de la Sy-rie, c'est celle de voir les milices deHassan Nasrallah, mais surtout lerégime iranien, bénéficier des évé-nements. Des discussions offi-cieuses sont en effet engagées avecTéhéran, que certains créditentmaintenant, c'est un comble, d'unrôle «stabilisateur ».

I1Ya également une autre leçonà tirer, qui porte sur la confiance

plus limitée que les alliés des États-Unis ont désormais en l'efficacitéde la protection américaine. Cetélément est très grave, car c'est luiqui peut conduire certains pays à

revoir leurs politiques de défense,voire à se doter de l'arme nucléaire.En effet, et c'est une troisième le-çon, on ne peut reprocher aux ac-teurs de la région de s'interrogersur ce que l'Iran pourrait faire avecla bombe, quand ils assistent à unedémonstration en vraie grandeurde ce qu'il peut déjà faire sans elle.

En termt-s strictement ration-nels, la conséquence à tirer seraitnaturellement, plutôt que de re-mettre sans cesse à plus tard leséchéances, ou de s'opposer à unerésolution qui représente une ulti-me tentative pour obtenir de l'Iranqu'il se plie aux décisions duConseil, d'exercer une pressionplus forte avant que l'avance vers lasanctuarisation du territoire ira-nien - ou la modification de lacomposition du Conseil de sécuri-té -, ait pour conséquence de vidertoute pression internationale decontenu ou de rendre cette pres-sion plus difficile encore à décider.Ces deux éléments méritent com-mentaire. L'avancement du pro-gramme, tout d'abord. En effet,pendant que l'on continue de prierTéhéran - on pourrait parfois diresupplier - d'accepter l'offre des sixpays, plus personne ne s'interrogesur l'évolution du programme nu-cléaire iranien. Or, non seulementles questions non résolues n'ontpas fait le moindre progrès, maisdepuis le mois de février, l'AlEAnecontrôle plus la production de cen-trifugeuses sur le territoire iranien.L'assemblage des machines sur lesite du pilote de Natanz n'évoluantpas au rythme prévu, l'Iran a-t-il

décidé de construire un autre site?Et cela pourrait-il avoir un lien avecla date du 22 août, que l'Iran in-dique depuis des mois commeétant la date de sa réponse? Lesraisons invoquées par Téhéranpour justifier cette date tiennentaux travaux de cinq comités qui de-vraient alors remettre leurs conclu-sions. Mais qui croit vraiment àcette fable? La composition duConseil de sécurité est une autredonnée importante. En effet, lorsdu renouvellement qui aura lieu enjanvier, trois nouveaux entrantsvont apporter un obstacle supplé-mentaire à l'action: le Venezuela,l'Afrique du Sud et l'Indonésie.Compte tenu de l'extraordinaireaptitude de la diplomatie à fairecomme si l'on avait toujours« la vie

devant soi ", peut-on miser sur unedécisi(lD avant cette date, avec lesnouve.3.UXavertissements que l'été2006 iJlpporte sur la capacité denuisa;nce de l'Iran, cette foi" sousforme d'un conflit armé? Rien n'estmoinHsûr.

• Cher cheur associé au Ceri, auteurde I.:EJlsauvagement-Leretour dela barl larie au XXI'siècle (Grasset) etde I.:Inm,la bombe et la démissiondes na1ions (Autrement/Ceri).

LEn~ARO7août2006

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Ozeti

THE TIMES THURSDAY AUGUST 10 2006

The Turkish Government is 10 relocate the ancient structures at Hasankeyf, which include a 15th-century mausoleum and the Vlu Mosque, right, but archaeologIsts fear thatthey will collapse

Go-ahead for dam thatwill drown ancient city

Critics fear a human as well an archaeological catastrophe ifthe controversiaillisu project proceeds, writes Suna Erdem

ing them, they will collapse,"said Professor AbdulselamUlucam, head of excavations atHasankeyf.

Maggie Ronayne, an archae-ologist at the National Universi-ty of Ireland, Galway, who hasworked in the region since1999,said: "This dam is a weap-on of cultural mass destruction,not only because of the largenumber of monuments there,but also because of the livingculture, the people."

The Ilisu plant, which willgenerate 3.8 billion kIlowatthours of electricity a year, ispart of the ambitious South-eastern Anatolian Project(GAP) to develop the southeastand east.

Dormant since investorswithdrew in 2001, it got areprieve after a Turkish-ledconsortium, which includedGerman, Swiss and Austriancompanies, took It over.

Estimates of the number ofpeople who will be made home-less begin at 50,000

Even if they are compensat-ed and given new homes, theywill add to the problem ofresettlement in a region thathas been badly destabilised bya 20-year-old Kurdish insur-gency and military tacticsaimed at fighting the rebels.

Thousands of Kurds say thatthey are unable to resettle invillages they had to evacuate inthe 1990s.

The World Bank has refusedto finance the Ilisu dambecause ofthese and other envi-ronmental concerns.

It is also worried about thepotential for conflict if Syriaand Iraq become belligerentabout the amount of watersiphoned off by Turkey fromthe Tigris and Euphrates rivers.

Mosque ofel-Rlzk

L-.

-i-Present water~ level

HOW HASANKEYF COULDBE AFFECTED BY THE DAM.-

Mlnaret-t~.;--~--;--------------~~~ ~::"~,,~(~\ t ,<>"\"

which has yet to be excavated,wIll be lost.

It promises much, they say,given that Hasankeyf alonebears evidence of Assyrian,Roman, Byzantine, SeljukTurk, Persian and Ottomanhabitation, and ISbelieved to beamong the oldest continuouslyinhabited places in the world.

"The artefacts in Batman'sHasankeyf district cannot berelocated. If you try to movethose artefacts without reinforc-

• 25 mllhon euros has been allocatedto transport submerged artifacts whichInclude a 12th-century bridge and a14th-century Ayyubld mosque .

• Campaigners argue that muc~ ofthe construction IStoo fragile tomove successfully

Tigrisriver

TURKEY

50 miles

• 80 per cent of Hasankeyf will besubmerged when the dam IScompleted

• The town's history spans 12,000years; Neohthlc cave dwellingscompete with a Byzantine fort andOttoman tombs for tounsts' attention

'On the one side you have thedemand for energy, on the otheryou have history, culture'

the cost of relocatmg theancient structures of the city ofHasankeyf, which will beflooded.

These include the UluMosque, a cemetery with tomb-stones datmg from Byzantium;a 15th-century mausoleum en-crusted with tiles, and theremains of an Artukid bndge

But archaeologists andcampaigners dIsmiss the plan,saying that untold ancient treas-ures in the surrounding area,

TURKEY is to go ahead withthe construction of a dam onthe Tigris river, despite claimsthat it will displace tens ofthousands of people and flooda 12,OOO-year-oldcity.

Critics also say that the giant€l.2 billion (£840 million) Ilisudam will severely restrict theflow of water through Syriaand on to Iraq at the risk ofprovoking another conflict inthe troubled region.

But Recep Tayyip Erdogan,Turkey's Prime Minister, saidduring a ceremony to begin thework that the developmentwould create thousands of jobsand bring prosperity to theimpoverished, largely Kurdishregion in the southeast.

The proJect, which wasshelved four years ago whenBntain's Balfour Beatty, theconstruction company, with-drew because of protests fromenvironmentalists, would alsoplay a key role in generatingelectricity to plug Turkey'sburgeoning energy gap,he said.

"On the one side you havethe increasing demand forenergy and a bright future forTurkey; on the other, you havehistory, culture and an inherit-ance that belongs to all humani-ty," Mr Erdogan said. "We haveto find a solution. We have tomake peace between the twoSIdes."

Some 4,000 protesters heldan overnight vigil near the damsite on the Tigris, about 45km(28 miles) north of the Syrianborder.

The Turkish government hasset aside £25 million to cover

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Ozeti

LE FIGARO 7août 2006

Le village d'Hasankeyf est condamné à disparaître sous les eaux du lac, malgré la présence de vestiges des civilisations byzantine et ayyoubide. FedouachlAFP

Ankara lance le chantier d'unbarrage contesté sur le Tigre

TURQUIELes travaux engagésentraîneraientl'engloutissementsous les eaux de trésorsantiques et de deux centsvillages à majorité kurde.

Istanbul

«LE PAS que nous franchissons au-jourd'hui prouve que le Sud-Estn'est plus laissé pour compte. Lebarrage aura des retombées très po-sitives pour les pop~lations

30

locales )),a assuré le premier mi-nistre turc Recep Tayyip Erdogan àl'occasion de l'inauguration destravaux du barrage hydroélec-trique d'Ilisu, samedi, à 45 kilo-mètres de la frontière avec la Syrie.Mais une controverse environne-mentale et archéologique, propor-tionnelle à l'immensité de cechantier qui vise à domestiquer leseaux du Tigre, accompagne le pro-jet depuis son apparition à la findes années 1970.

Lesite d'Hasankeyf se trouve aucœur de la polémique. « Le barrageva détruire douze mille ansd'Histoire )),se désole AbdulvahapKusen,le maire du village.Accrochéà la falaise au bord du fleuve et uti-lisé par les Romains comme forte-resse pour repousser les Perses,Hasankeyf présente un intérêt ar-chéologique majeur. Les vestigesdes civilisationsbyzantine et ayyou-bide du XIV' siècle, condamnés àdisparaître sous les eaux du lac, s'ysuperposent: les piliers du pontérigé il Ya huit cents ans avec sonarche large de 40 mètres, les ruinesdes anciennes églises chrétiennes,

le tombeau conique couvert de cé-ramiques turquoise du XV'siècle...

En 2013,date prévue de sa miseen service, le barrage produira 3,8milliards de kilowattheures par an.La construction de la deuxième plusgrande réserve d'eau du pays s'ins-crit à la foisdans la politique globalede la Turquie qui cherche par tousles moyens à augmenter sa capacitéde production énergétique.

Projet de 22 retenues d'eaullisu fait partie du Projet pour le

Sud-Est anatolien (GAP),un pro-gramme qui prévoit la constructionde 22 retenues d'eau et 19centralesélectriques pour tenter de dévelop-per la région la plus déshéritée dupays. Recep Tayyip Erdogan a af-firmé que la réalisation d'Ilisu en-traînerait la création de 20 000 em-plois. Et l'irrigation de121000 hectares de terres permet-tra le développement de l'agricul-ture selon ses partisans.

«L'étude d'impact sur la popula-tion locale menée par le consortiumchargé des travaux (NDLR: des en-treprises allemande, suisse et autri-

chienne) est totalement insuffisanteselon les normes internationales »,dénonce Christine Eberlein derONG suisse la Déclaration deBerne. « Kurdish Human RightsProject », une organisation kurdebasée à Londres, a déposé plainteauprès de la Cour européenne desdroits de l'homme. En 2001déjà, lasociété britannique Balfour Beattys'était désengagée du projet, décou-ragée par « les complexités environ-nementales, économiques etsociales )).Deux cents villages peu-plés majoritairement par des Kurdesseront engloutis et 54000 personnesdéplacées. Lesautorités turques an- I

noncent l'érection d'une nouvelleville pour reloger les habitantsd'Hasankeyf et des indemnités pourtous les expropriés. Lecollectifd'as-sociations et de municipalités lo-cales redoute un exildans les bidon-villes de Diyarbakir ou de Batmandans lesquels s'entassent des di-zaines de milliers de réfugiés chas-sés de leur maison par la guerre ci-vile entre les séparatistes du PKKetl'armée turque.

LAURE MARCHAND

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

LE FIGARO 7août2006

L'Iran menacel'Occident

Ali Larijani,le négociateur iranien, a affirmé hier avec fermeté: « Nousétendrons nos activités nucléaires si nous en avons besoin. »Atta Kenare/AFP.

de Gral1.dMoyen-Orient >'.Ce député réformateur, parti-

san du dialogue et de la négocia-tion, regrette que la communau-té internationale se soitempressée d'imposer une réso-lution alors que l'Iran « considé-rait sérieusement le paquet demesures incitatives Il. « Les puis-

sances internationales ont négo-cié pendant trois ans avec l'Iran.Ne pouvaient-elles pas atteindretrois semaines de plus avant devoter leur résolution? », s'inter-roge-t-il. Ce genre de comporte-ment risque, dit-il, de « radicali-ser l'Iran Il. Ali Larijani, enpersonne, prévenait déjà, hier,qu'en cas de sanctions, « nousréagirons d'une manière qui serévélera douloureuse II.

DELPHINE MINOUI

lemand des Affaires étrangères,s'est déplacé jusqu'à Téhéran, lasemaine dernière, pour appelerles Iraniens « à cesser leurs activi.tés afin de regagner la confianceinternationale Il.

Dans la capitale iranienne, la

classe politique, de droite com-me de gauche, estime que l'Iran,signataire du TNp, s'est toujoursefforcé de coopérer avec les ins-pecteurs de l'Agence internatio-nale à l'énergie atomique (AlEA).II Deux mille inspecteurs ont visitéles sites. Dans son rapport de fé-vrier, EIBaradei en personne aprécisé que rien d'anormal n'a étérelevé. Que veulent. ils de plus? Il,

s'interroge Kazem Jalali, porte-parole de la commission des af-

faires étrangères du Parlement.Selon lui, « le problème, ce n'estpas la confiance, c'est l'Amériquequi cherche à imposer son projet

Classe politique unanimeTéhéran a redémarré ses acti-

vités d'enrichissement en janvierdernier, et a annoncé, en avril,avoir produit de l'uranium enri-chi. Les grandes puissances crai-gnent que la République isla-

mique utilise ce procédé, qui per-met d'obtenir du combustiblepour une centrale nucléaire, afinde se doter de l'arme atomique.Dans un effort de médiation, Jo-schka Fisher, l'ancien ministre al-

ront alors possibles. Elle a pris decourt les Iraniens au moment oùils envisageaient d'apporter uneréponse, le 22 août, au paquet demesures incitatives offert par lescinq membres permanents duConseil de sécurité et l'Alle-magne. Cet ensemble de mesuresde coopération dans les do-maines commercial et nucléaireavait pour objectif de trouver uneissue à la crise. Selon Larijani,« cette résolution a affecté notreattitude Il. Pour lui, l'Occident a« tué» la négociation en adoptantun texte « contraire» aux pour-parlers.

De notre correspondanteà Téhéran

PROCHE-ORIENTEn rejetant la résolutionde l'ONU sur le nucléaire,Téhéran a promis uneréaction « douloureuse»aux pays qui prendraientdes mesures coercitives.

ALI LARIJANI,le principal négo-ciateur iranien sur les questionsnucléaires, aura mis du tempsavant de se prononcer sur la der-nière résolution de l'ONU. Mais I

c'est avec fermeté qu'il l'a rejetée,hier, en la qualifiant « d'illégale »,et en évoquant même la possibili-té d'une expansion des activitésnucléaires iraniennes. « Nousétendrons nos activités nucléairessi nous en avons besoin, a-t-il affir-mé. Cela concerne toute technolo-gie nucléaire, y compris les centri-fugeuses en cascade. »

La résolution, adoptée le31 juillet, donne un mois à l'Iran

pour suspendre l'enrichissementde son uranium, faute de quoides sanctions contre Téhéran se-

Iran defiesUN.threat

•on uraniumEnrichment activitiesare to be expandedThe Associated Press

TEHRAN: Iran's top nuclear negotia-tor said Sunday that his country wouldexpand its uranium enrichment, in de-fiance of a United Nations SecurityCouncil resolution that sets an Aug. 31deadline for the Islamic republic to haltenrichment or face the threat of politic-al and economic sanctions.

The negotiator, Ali Larijani, calledthe Security Council resolution, whichwas issued last week, illegal and said,"We reject this resolution."

"We will expand nuclear activitieswhere required," he said. "It includes allnu<;lear _ technology, . including the

string of centrifuges," referring to thelinked centrifuges that Iran would usefor such an enrichment program.

He said that Iran had not violated anyI of its obligations under the Nuclear

Nonproliferation Treaty and that theUnited Nations had no right to requireit to suspend enrichment.

"We won't accept suspension," he-said.

"Such resolutions won't have any im-pact on our behavior," he said. "We willexpand our nuclear technology."

However, Larijani ,said all Iranian nu-clear activities would remain under thesupervision of the UN's InternationalAtomic Energy Agency. The agency hassaid there has been no evidence toprove that Iran's nuclear program hasbeen diverted toward weapons.

Larijani said the Security Councilresolution was "contrary" to a packageof Western incentives offered in June topersuade Tehran to suspend its urani-um enrichment activities. Iran wouldformally respond on Aug. 22 to the in-centives package, he said.

Iran has said it will never give up itsright to produce nuclear fuel, but has in-dicated it might temporarily suspendlarge-scale activities to ease tensions.

Larijani said the world should blameth~ United ~tate~~n.9jts ~l1iés'for acting

against their proposed package and I

seeking to deny Iran its legitimate rightunder the nonproliferation treaty to en-rich uranium and produce nuclear fuel.

Larijani said talks, not threats, wouldresolve the standoff over Iran's nuclearactivities, and he blamed the West forcompromising a diplomatic solution .

"We were expected to hold talks" to"remove ambiguities," he said, addingthat Western countries had issued a res-olution at the Security Council andkilled the talks.

The United States has accused Iran ofseeking nuclear weapons. Tehranmaintains its program is peaceful andintended to generate electricity, notbombs.

ln February, Iran for the first timeproduced a batch of low-grade enricheduranium, using a cascade of 164 centri-fuges. The process of uranium enrich-ment can be used to generate electricityor to create an atomic weapon; depend-ing on the level of enrichment. '

Iran said it planned to install 3,000centrifuges at its enrichment plant inNatanz, in central Iran, by the lastquarter of 2006. Industrial productionof enriched uranium in Natanz wouldrequire 54,000 centrifuges.

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

felnonatJeudi 10 août 2006

felnondeMercredi 9 août 2006

T~_~~~.I_~__~~N IFE~! ~_"!:~~~_~ . . .__ .

L'hostilité à Israël s'accroîtdans l'opinion publique turque

Damas et Téhéran misent surla «résistance» du Hezbollah

ISTANBULi CORRESPONDANCE

« Les tribunaux pour les crimes deguerre devraient punir le terrorismed'Etat d'Israël et ses crimes contrel'humanité» : c'est en ces termespeu diplomatiques que s'est expri-mé Mehmet Elkatmis, présidentde la commission des droits del'homme du Parlement turc, à pro-

, pas des opérations israéliennes auLiban. « Il semble qu'Israël veuilleinfliger la douleur dont lesjuifs ontsouffert entre les mains d'Hitler »,a ajouté ce député qui incarne laligne dure du Parti de la justice etdu développement (AKP, au pou-voir). Les membres de la commis-sion pilI'lementaire doivent se ren-dre au Proche-Orient dans lesjours qui viennent «pour témoi-gner de l'ampleur de ces violationsdes droits de l'homme».

Depuis le début des raids israé-liens sur le territoire libanais, legouvernement turc et sa majoritéparlementaire ont marqué leurdésaccord et affiché leur solidari-té de « pays frère» avec le Liban.Multipliant les appels au cessez-Je-feu, le premier ministre turc,Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a qualifiéles raids israéliens d'« excessifs etinhumains ». Et le groupe d'ami-tié parlementaire Turquie-Israëls'est vidé de ses effectifs pléthori-ques : 215 députés sur 263, dont124 de l'AKP, ont démissionné ensigne de protestation.

Ces critiques apparaissent trèsinhabituelles pour la Turquie laï-que, alliée d'Israël dans la région.Dans les cercles militaires, on res-te fidèle à la « ligne» : « Israël sedéfend. Il ne faut pas changer depolitique parce que deux ou trois'enfants sont morts », a ainsi décla-ré le député de l'opposition Nuriei:lingir, l'un des rares à 'avoir faitentendre cette voix. Etroitementliés par un accord de coopérationmilitaire depuis 1996, les deuxpays entretiennent des relationsmoins cordiales depuis l'arrivéeau pouvoir, en 2002, de l'AKP,parti islamo-conservateur.

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« Depuis trois ou quatre ans, çaa changé. Maintenant, l'opinionpublique turque est pro-Hezbollahet anti-occidentale, affirme Gün-düz Aktan, ancien ambassadeurturc, qui dirige le très nationalisteCentre eurasiatique des étudesstratégiques (ASAM) : le premierministre n'aborde ce conflit quesous son aspect humanitaire et pen-se que c'est une guerre des juifscontre les musulmans », ajou-te-t-il.

Aide humanitaireLa Turquie a décidé, mardi

8 août, d'accroître son aide huma-nitaire aux déplacés libanais, etd'envoyer 900 tonnes de nourritu-re. Le Croissant- Rouge turc a déjàacheminé 18 semi-remorques dematériel au Liban. Mais la popula-tion turque attend des prises deposition politiques plus fermes.«Certains traités de coopérationavec Israël seront ralentis, d'autresexposés moins ouvertement, préditMehmet Dülger (AKP), présidentde la commission des affairesétrangères du Parlement: cettecollaboration serait difficile à expli-quer à la population. »

Dans plusieurs grandes villes,les manifestations hostiles àIsraël se multiplient, à l'initiativede groupes islamistes, plus sou-vent de syndicats ou de partis d'ex-trême-gauche. Embarrassées parl'ampleur de ces protestations, lesautorités turques cherchent à évi-ter toute publicité et à contenir lesdérapages antisémites. Diman-che, un groupe d'activistes de laPlate-forme socialiste des oppri-més a été arrêté à Istanbul. Lesaffiches anti-israéliep.nes, quLQ~tfleuri dans la ville ont été très vitearrachées.

La semaine derniète à: Ankara;lors d'un match de basket Tur-quie-Liban transformé en mee-ting anti-israélien, la police a vio-lemment réprimé les manifes-tants qui brandissaient des dra-peaux palestiniens .•

GUILLAUME PERRIER

BEYROUTH, DAMASCORRESPONDANTE. ENVOYEE SPÉCIALE

'près d'un mois après le déclen-chement de la guerre entre leHezbollah et Israël, la Syrie etl'Iran ne cachent plus leur jeu.Au moment où la diplomatie ten-te de faire taire le langage desarmes, les responsables des deuxpays entendent avoir leur mot àdire et leurs intérêts à défendre,comme s'ils faisaient la guerrepar Hezbollah interposé. Ainsi, leprojet de résolution franco-améri-cain était-il à peine connu,dimanche 6 août, que les prési-dents syrien et iranien, BacharAl-Assad et Mahmoud Ahmadine-jad, décidaient d'un communaccord qu'il s'agissait d'un « tex-te unilatéral et injuste».

A en croire l'agence iranienneofficielle Irna, M. Ahmadinejada prévu que « les Etats-Unis etl'entité sioniste occupante serontvaincus grâce à l'unité et à la soli-darité entre le peuple libanais etla nation islamique ». Le mêmejour, Ali Larijani, président duConseil national de sécurité ira-nien, tenait des propos similai-res.

Une semaine plus tôt, lorsd'une visite à Beyrouth, le minis-tre iranien des affaires étrangè-res, Manouchehr Mottaki, s'étaitdéjà autorisé à tracer en poin-tillés le point de vue de son paysquant à la manière de mettre finà la guerre. Il s'était fait mettreles points sur les « i » par le pre-mier ministre libanais, FouadSiniora. Ce dernier l'a révélé lui-même, lundi 7 août, lors d'uneconférence de presse, sans four-nir de détails.

Lors de sa conversation avecM. Ahmadinejad, le présidentsyrien, selon l'agence iranienne,a pour sa part rendu un homma-ge appuyé à « la résistance héroï-que du Hezbollah». Il a estiméque le projet de résolution franco-américain « sert les intérêts de l'en-tité sioniste» et que « le déploie-

ment deforces internationales béné-ficiant d'un mandat étendu entraî-nerait le chaos dans cepays». Sonministre des affaires étrangères,Walid Al-Moallem, a renchéri lemême jour, en déclarant auLiban que « Nasrallah [le secré-taire général du Hezbollah] et larésistance défendent la dignité dela nation [arabe] et son unité. »

Les Libanais irritésCe genre de propos est formel-

lement rejeté par une grande par-tie des dirigeants libanais et del'opinion publique, qui estimentque leur pays a suffisammentpayé seul le prix des conflitsrégionaux. Le plus virulent d'en-tre eux est WalidJoumblatt qui,dès dimanche soir, rétorquait àM. Moallem qu'il est « facile defaire de la surenchère jusqu'à ladernière goutte de sang libanais».« Lion au Liban et lapin sur leGolan », a-t-il ajouté, faisant allu-sion à la fois au patronyme duprésident syrien (Assad signifie« Lion») et au fait que le frontdu Golan est parfaitement calmedepuis les accords de désengage-ment israélo-syriens de 1974.

« Pour l'instant, d'un point devue strictement politique, le conflita profité à la Syrie: il lui a permisde revenir en force dans lejeu régio-nal. Sa carte majeure, c'est le Hez-bollah, bien sûr, note le correspon-dant à Damas du quotidienAl-Hayat, Ibrahmi Hamidi. Qu'enfera-t-elle? » Elle peut obtenir cer-taines garanties, concernant, parexemple, un soutien économiqueet financier de certains pays euro-péens. Peut-être même desaccords de coopération, avan-ce-t-il. Mais les raisons de pavoi-ser, reconnaît-il, sont limitées.

« Militairement, le Hezbollah agagné: il a montré qu'il pouvaitrésistl rà Israël. Symboliquement,c'est très important. Mais lesAmé-n'cains vont toutfaire pour l'affai-blir politiquement. ». -MaUNA NAÎM ET CATHERINE SIMOl\

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

Thomas L. Friedman

In Iraq, it's time for Plan B

How can Americadisengage with the least

damage possible?

Itis now obvious that America is not midwifingdemocracy in Iraq. It is baby-sitting a civil war.

When the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Gener-al John Abizaid, tells a Senate Committee, as he

did Thursday, that "the sectarian violence is probablyas bad as I've seen it," it means that three years of ef-forts to democratize Iraq are not working. Thatmeans "staying the course" is pointless, and it's timeto start thinking about Plan B -how we might disengage with theleast damage possible.

It seemed to me over the lastthree years that, even with all theBush team's missteps, we had togive our Iraqi partners a chance toproduce a transitional government,then write a constitution, then holdan election and then, finally, put together their firstelected cabinet. But now they have done all of that -and the situation has only worsened.

The Sunni jihadists and Baathists are as dedicatedas ever to making this U.S.-Iraqi democracy initiativefail. That, and the runaway sectarian violence result-ing from having too few U.S. troops and allowing amilitia culture to become embedded, have made Iraqa lawless mess.

It was and remains hugely important to try topartner with Iraqis to create one good example in theheart of the Arab world of a decent, progressive state,where the politics of fear and tribalism do not reign- the politics that has produced all the pathologiesof unemployment, religious intolerance and repres-sion that make the Middle East so dangerous.

But the administration now has to admit what any-one - including myself - who believed in the im-portance of getting Iraq right has to admit: Whetherfor Bush reasons or Arab reasons, it is not happening,and we can't throw more good lives after good lives.

Since the Bush team never gave us a Plan A forIraq, it at least owes us a Plan B. It's not easy. Here aremy first thoughts about a Plan B and some of the im-

plications.I think we need to try a last-ditch

Bosnia-like peace conference thatwould bring together all of Iraq'sfactions and neighbors. Just as Bos-nia could be solved only by an inter-national peace force and the Daytonconference - involving Russia,Europe and the United States, the

powers most affected -by Bosnia's implosion - thecivil war in Iraq can be quelled only by a coalition ofthose most affected by Iraq's implosion: the UnitedStates, Russia, Europe, Japan, India, China, Turkey,Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Syria and Jordan. As in Bos-nia, any solution will have to be some form of federal-ism, a division of oil wealth and policing by an inter-national force, where needed.

For such a conference to come about, though,America would probably need to declare its intentionto leave. Iraqis, other Arabs, Europeans and Chinesewill get serious about helping to salvage Iraq only ifthey believe we are leaving, which would damagetheir interests.

What would be the consequences of leaving with-out such a last-ditch peace effort, or if it just fails?Iraq could erupt into a much wider civil war, drawingin its neighbors. Or, Iraqis might stare into this abyssand actually come to terms with each other on theirown. Our presence may be part of the problem. It'shard to know.

I£Iraq opts for all-out civil war, its two million bar-rels a day will be off the market and oil could goabove $100a barrel. (That would, however, spur moreinvestment in alternative fuels that could one daymake America independent of this volatile region.)

Some fear that Iran will be the winner. But will it?Once America is out o£Iraq, Iran will have to managethe boiling pot next door. That will be a huge prob-lem for Iran. The historical enmity toward Iran byIraqi Arabs - enmity temporarily focused on Amer-ica - will re-emerge. And Iran will also have to com-pete with its ally Syria for influence in Iraq.

The best way to contain Iran would have been toproduce a real Shiite-led democracy in Iraq, expos-ing the phony one in Tehran. But second best is leav-ing Iraq. Because the worst option - the one Iranloves - is for us to stay in Iraq, bleeding, and in easyrange to be hit by Iran if we strike its nukes.

Finally, the war in Iraq has so divided Americansat home and abroad that leaving, while bringing oth-er problems, might also make it easier to build coali-tions to deal with post-U.S. Iraq, Iran, Hezbollah andSyria. All these problems are connected. We need todeal with Iran and Syria, but from a position ofstrength - and that requires a broad coalition.

The longer we maintain a unilateral failing strategyin Iraq, the harder it will be to build such a coalition,and the stronger the enemies of freedom will become.

IRAK

L'Irak est au bordd'une « guerre civile »,admet le généralaméricain AbizaidNEWYORKCORRESPONDANT

« L'Irak peut sombrer dans laguerre civile sila violence sectaire à Bagdad n'est pas arrê-tée. » Lajournée de jeudi 3 août a de nou-veau été sanglante en Irak - au moins 12morts, dont 10 civils dans un attentat sur

un marché de Bagdad et deux marinestués dans la province sunnite d'Al-Anbar.

Le constat sur le risque de « guerre civi-le » a été fait, le même jour, devant la com-mission des armées du Sénat par le géné-ral John Abizaid, l'homme qui dirige lesforces américaines en Irak, le comman-dant du commandement central.

Jusque-là, George Bush et le secrétaire àla défense Donald Rumsfeld s'étaient tou-jours refusés à admettre que l'Irak pouvaitbasculer dans la guerre civile. Le généralAbizaid a ajouté que « la violence sectaireen Irak est probablement la pire qu'[il a]jamais vue ». Il a défini trois objectifs pourle Pentagone au Moyen-Orient, « où lasituation a rarement été aussi incertaine etvolatile»: vaincre Al-Qaida, dissuader

l'Iran et trouver une solution au conflitisraélo-arabe.

« Ils ne vont pas abandonner»En Irak, la priorité absolue aujourd'hui

du général Abizaid est de rétablir la sécuri-té à Bagdad. L'armée américaine a annon-cé ledéploiement d'urgence dans la capita-le de 3 700 hommes de la 172'brigade.

Le général Abizaid a également souli-gné la difficulté de réduire le nombre desoldats américains dans le pays : « Il estpossible d'imnginer quelques diminutions deforce, mais je pense que la chose laplus impor-tante est que Bagdad soit sous contrôle dugouvernement irakien. »

Les propos tenus toujours jeudi devantle Sénat par le général Peter Pace, qui com-

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basln Ozeti

mande l'état-major combiné, étaient de lamême tonalité que ceux de M. Abizaid.« La situation peut se transformer en guerrecivile », a-t-il déclaré.

M. Rumsfeld, qui avait déclaré mercre-di qu'il avait un emploi du temps trop char-gé pour venir témoigner au Sénat, a finale-ment changé d'avis devant les critiques,notamment du sénateur démocrate Hilla-ryClinton.

Jeudi, Mme Clinton s'en est prise directe-ment au secrétaire à la défense: « Sousvotre direction, il y a eu de nombreuseserreurs dejugement qui nous ont conduits oùnous 'en sommes en Irak et en Afghanistan.Vous avez sous-estimé la nature et laforce del'insurrection, la violence sectaire et la diffu-sion de l'influence iranienne. »

Le sénateur républicain John McCains'est, lui, inquiété des conséquences dutransfert de troupes à Bagdad: « Nousjouons un jeu iciqui s'apparente à rebouchersans cessedes trous de taupe. »

En réponse, M. Rumsfeld a mis l'accentsur les risques à ses yeux d'un retrait destroupes américaines: « Nous pouvons per-sévérer en Irak ou nous retirer prématuré-ment jusqu'à ce qu'ils nous contraignent ànous battre plus près de chez nous. Ne voustrompez pas, ils ne vont pas abandonner, quenous acceptions ou non leurs demandesimmédiates. » •

ERIC LESER

IRAKUne vingtaine de mortsau cours du week-endBAGDAD. Trois soldats améri-cains ont été tués, dimanche soir6 août dans l'explosion d'unebombe dans la région de Bagdad,a annoncé, lundi, sans plus deprécisions, l'armée américainedans un communiqué. Parailleurs, au moins quinze person-nes ont péri le même jour et unetrentaine ont été blessées dansun attentat-suicide au milieud'une foule rassemblée pour desobsèques à Tilait, au nord de lacapitale. Le kamikaze, arrivédans une voiture bourrée d'explo-sifs, a garé son véhicule devant lasalle, est entré et a fait détonerses explosifs, selon la police.Face au regain d'insécurité,depuis deuxjours, les soldatsaméricains arrivent à Bagdaddepuis Mossoul, à 370 kilomètresplus au nord, pour se joindre auxquelque SO 000 hommes de l'ar-mée américaine et des forces desécurité irakiennes afin de tenterde rétablir la sécurité dans la capi-tale irakienne. - (AFP.)

Affrontements entre milices chiiteset forces régulières à BagdadBAGDAD. Dans la nuit du dimanche 6 aulundi 7 août, les forces irakiennes, soute-nues par les Américains, ont affronté desmilices chiites à Bagdad, dans le quar-tier de Sadr City, lors d'un raid qui s'ins-crit dans la stratégie de reprise de contrô-le de la capitale, en proie aux violencesconfessionnelles. Selon le ministère ira-kien de la défense, deux miliciens ont ététués dans ces affrontements. Un attentat-suicide a par ailleurs tué neuf policiers etblessé trente personnes lundi à Samarra,à 125km au nord de Bagdad. Mardi, aumoins dix Irakiens ont été tués et cin-quante blessés dans l'explosion de deuxbombes sur un marché, au centre de Bag-dad. - (AFP.)

felnonaeMardI 8 août 2006

Washingtonaccuse Moscoud'aider Téhéran, ,as arIner

DIPLOMATIELes États-Unis ontsanctionné deux sociétésrusses, soupçonnéesd'avoir contribuéà des programmes iraniensd'armes de destructionmassive.

Moscou

UN MOIS après le sommet du G 8à Saint-Pétersbourg, la tensionmonte à nouveau entre VladimirPoutine et George W. Bush, surfond de crise au Proche-Orient.Washington vient de prendre dessanctions contre deux entreprisesrusses accusées d'aider Téhéran àacquérir des armes de destructionmassive. Adoptées dans le cadrede la loi américaine contre la non-prolifération nucléaire, ces me-sures visent aussi cinq autres en-

34

treprises (cubaine, indiennes etnord-coréennes) .

« Inacceptable ", a fustigé leministère des Affaires étrangèresrusse. Cette démarche {(représen-te une nouvelle tentative injusti-fiable visant à forcer des compa-gnies étrangères à fonctionnerselon les règlements intérieurs desÉtats-Unis Il, poursuit le commu-niqué, dénonçant {(un anachro-nisme historique et juridique évi-dent Il. Moscou explique que lesdeux compagnies sanctionnées-l'exportateur d'armes Rosobo-ronexport et le fabricant d'avionsSoukhoï - agissent en se confor-mant au droit international. Ro-soboronexport a d'ailleurs affir-mé ne livrer que des armesdéfensives à l'Iran. Et Soukhoï aprécisé ne rien avoir vendu à Té-héran depuis dix ans. Du coup, lapresse russe dénonce une « décla-

ration de guerre économique Il

(Les Izvestia). Anticipant des re-présailles, elle prévoit la «fin dupartenariat stratégique entre lesÉtats- Unis et la Russie Il (Kom-mersant).

Ces propos traduisent l'irrita-tion de Moscou vis-à-vis de Wa-shington alors que les deux capi-tales semblaient s'êtrerapprochées sur le dossier ira-nien. La semaine dernière, elless'étaient enfin mises d'accord surune résolution du Conseil de sé-curité des Nations unies deman-dant à Téhéran de suspendre sonprogramme d'enrichissementd'uranium, sous peine de sanc-tions économiques et diploma-tiques. Mais Moscou n'a pas remisen question pour autant ses rela-tions étroites avec l'Iran. La Rus-sie doit ainsi livrer d'ici à 2008l'équivalent d'un milliard de dol-lars d'armement à Téhéran, enparticulier des missiles antimis-siles de courte portée.

Boeing, principale victime« Les véritables raisons de ces

sanctions ne se trouvent pas enIran Il, prévient cependant IvanSafrantchouk, directeur du Centred'informations moscovite sur ladéfense. {(Si les Américains ontdécidé seulement aujourd'hui depunir ces deux sociétés sur les-

quelles ils avaient sans doute desinformations depuis longtemps,c'est à cause du facteur Chavez ... »Allusion à la visite fin juillet à Mos-cou du président vénézuélien. Labête noire de Washington a achetépour trois milliards de dollars d'ar-mement, dont des avions Soukhoï.

Cependant, la principale victi-me de ces mesures, qui interdi-sent pendant deux ans aux deuxentreprises visées d'avoir descontacts avec des sociétés améri-caines, pourrait bien être ...Boeing. La société aéronautiqueaméricaine est en effet associéeavec Soukhoï pour la constructiond'un nouvel avion régional. Et elleachète un tiers de son titane à lafirme russe VSMPO-Avisma, quiest sur le point d'être rachetée parRosoboronexport... .

ALExANDRE CÈDRE

LE FIGARO9août2006

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

rP.-Yi~he Kurdish Globe

AuguS115,2006

Sulaimaniya suburb becomes thesave haven ior Arab reiugees

Controversial camp built to house thousands of Arab families

Arab workers gesture as they reach an area near Chamchamal west of Sulelmanlya fleeingviolence in southern parts of Iraq.

"Instead of runningto neighbouring coun-tries and Jordan, peopleshould be able to come toKurdistan and serve thepublic," he said.

Sherko Abdullah theHead of Health for Su-laimaniya saId "as wellas Arab doctors beingprovided with their ownsalary, they are also re-ceiving $300 for their ac-commodation. "

KrG PresidentMassoud Bar-ani announced

the allocation of $200million for the imple-mentation of Article140 of the Iraqi Consti-tution, which deals withthe normalization ofKirkuk. The presidentalso revealed that theMinistry of Justice hadformed a committee todeal with all issues re-lating to Article 140.

The Globe

four cases of tuberculosishave been diagnosed aspositive from the Arabs

who migrated to the city.Those Arab families that

will settle m Sulaimaniyamust have a Kurdish per-son acting as their referee.However, these processesand barriers do not applyto doctors, engineers andArab busmessmen whenthey enter Kurdistan.

Jutiar Nouri, the DeputyHead of the Council ofSulaimamya says thatthey will not ban doctors. .'engmeers and bus mess-men from entering, andwill welcome them in-stead.

one of the most peacefulaild advanced cities ofKurdlstan and Iraq. Un-til now the relatively fewsuicide bombings target-ing the city have beenperpetrated by people ofArab origins. Cntics saythe government shouldcheck the background ofany Arab family that mi-grates to Kurdistan

Fear for EpidemicsAlso epidemic diseases

have been the source ofconcern after the arrivalof the Arab settlers. Asource from a chest clinictold the Globe that duringthe course of one month

$%00 million for KirkukNormalization

A displaced family returns to Kirkuk.

down. The camp is to bebuilt in Darband Basara, acool region situated in theSouth East of Sulaimani-ya. It will approximatelybe 35 kilometres far fromthe city. The camp will besupervised by the Sulaim-aniya City Council.

From a humanitarianperspective, the fact thatthe Arab families seektheir way into Kurdis-tan is a cause of nationalpride for the Kurds. How-ever, politically and eco-nomically it is a highly

risky business."Through the distanc-

ing ofthese Arab familiesfrom Sulaimaniya it iseasier to maintain calm inSulaimaniya neighbour-hoods," Sherzad Hafizisaid fearing sectarianconfrontation betweenArabs and Kurds if thecamp was nearer the citycentre.

In Sherzad's words, thenumber of Arab familiesis more than 1000 "andwill increase daily due totheir migration from cen-

tral Iraq."The Spokesman for the

Security of Sulalmaniyatold the Globe that untilnow no particular securi-ty unit has been formed towork with these mIgratedfamilies.

The city of Sulaimaniyahas been described as

Arab families run-ning from thesectarian vio-

lence in central Iraq willhave a UN sponsoredcamp opened for themsoon in Kurdistan Re-gion, outside the city ofSulaimaniya. The delib-erate distancing of theseArab families from Su-laimaniya city and plac-ing the camp far awayfrom the town is a wayto make sure that calmwould not be eruptedin Sulaimaniya due toprobable ethnic con-frontations between theArabs and the Kurds,Globe's Fazil Najibwrites.

Globe Correspondent

The distancing officialssay prevents a possibleshifting of the city's de-mographic reality, unlikeKirkuk. An influx of Arabsettlers l:ould even meana deepening of the hous-mg crIsis in the Regionwhy Kurdish authoritieschoose to open the campoutside of the city, awayfrom city borders,

The relative security ofthe Kurdish cities has at-tracted thousands of Arabfamilies into the Region,families who flee outrightfighting in central Iraq.

Sherzad Hafizi, theHead of the Council forthe city of Sulaimaniyatold the Globe that theUN will build a camp, inwhich the Arab tàmiliescan temporarily settle

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

Zoroastrian TeIDplediscover~d in Duhok

The newly discovered Zoroastrian Temple near Jar Ston Cave near Duhok; The picture shows theinside of the cave.

~ e Kurdish Globe~*1b August 22, 2006

teams are continuing workat the site to find out moreabout t.hetemple's history.

studying Zarathustnan artsand archeology."

At present archaeology

ther described the templeas being made up of fivesanctuaries, three of whichwere carved into rock, withthe remaining two hav-ing been constructed fromstone blocks.

This discovery is beinghailed as the most signifi-cant archaeological devel-opment in the region Inrecent times.

"This new discovery willalter the history of the re-gion due to its unique ar-chitectural style, whichdiffers considerably fromZoroastrian temples pre-viously discovered," ex-plained the Director of An-tiquities.

"The temple's style whichlooks toward the four-di-rections is a unique styleever discovered in the area;thus it becomes an entry to

"The temple was dedicat-ed to the deity Anna Hita,Indicated by the discoveryof Anna Hita's holy star,and evidence of fires, aswell as fireplaces and Zo-roastrian holy sand storeshave been found nearby,"Qassim revealed. He fur-

Globe Correspondentin Dohuk

Duhok's Directorof Antiquities,Hasan Ahmed

Qassim, has announcedthe discovery of a Zoro-astrian temple near JarSton Cave, a famous an-cient site. The temple isbelieved to be the mostcomplete to have beenunearthed in the region.It is also said that it wasa Metherani temple.

Zakho: graduation oi 70 borderiorces oiiicers irom the military

academy

Agraduation cer-emony has beenorganized for the

graduation of boarderforces officers in specialtraining session lasted for2 months, where manymilitary, humanitarianand technical subjectswere delivered theoreti-cally and practically, lo-cal media reported.

70 boarder force officers

Graduated officers march In this tile photo

graduated In this trainingsession, the ceremony at-tended by Ali Awni theKDP official and the com-mander of boarder forcesas well as the representa-tive of Kurdlstan Army inDohuk.

In this ceremony, a rangeof speeches were ad-dressed indicatIng to theconstructIOn of the armyon SCIentificbases

The Globe

Oil refineries to beconstructed in the Region

The construction of One of the refineries is a day.three oil refineries planned to be constructed According to new plans,has got underway in Erbil and the other one in the capacity of Kirkuk's re-

in the Region, Kurdish Bazian Region, each with finery will be increased toofficials said last Thurs- a daily capacity of 20,000 55,000 barrels a day; thisday. The announcement barrels a day. The third one will most likely solve thecomes amid exacerbated will be built within Sulei- fuel crisis in Kirkuk and itsfuel shortage across the maniya governorate with a suburbs, officials estimate.Kurdish cities. capacity of 70,000 barrels The Globe

Beji Oil Refinery in KIrkuk

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Gzeti..Augùs(if :?~~6:

ARBIL

Ina reversal of roles, Iraq's Arabs are seeking safety among the Kurds

Iraqi Kurdistan

From killing zone to safe haven

Iraq

Mayhem in thesouth tooBASRA

The south is less bloody than the centrebut it is violent and lawless all the same

THE noise of a mortar round, hke an in-coming tram, startles a bunch of con-

tractors and aid workers waiting for theirhelicopter flight out of the British dip-lomatic compound in Basra, sending themand your correspondent scrambling forcover. This-and the array of other projec-tiles that have whizzed over the riversidepalace complex in the past few nights-ispresumed to be the Mahdi Army's revengefor the arrest of their local commander byBritish soldiers a few days before.

It is very different from two years ago,when British diplomats would happilycool down on the banks of the Shatt al-Arab waterway, since walled off by theconcrete barriers that are ubiquitousacross Iraq. The Shia-populated southernprovmces used to be relatIVely safe. Notnow. The violence in Basra, the south'scapital, still pales by comparison withmany other parts of Iraq, especially theSunni areas to the west of Baghdad and thesectarian tinderbox of Iraq's capital. Evenat ItS worst, in mid-summer, the blood-shed in Basra, caused largely by IslamistShia militias feuding among themselves,claimed about 20 hves a week, accordingto the police, and now probably accountsfor half that figure; Baghdad's daily deathtoll is far higher.

Still, the violence in Basra has deterredinvestment and caused the middle class toflee. Few of the billions of dollars of oil ex-tracted from the huge fields Just west of thecity seem to have been put to good use lo-cally. After suffering ternbly under Sad-dam Hussein, Basra is still a slough of de-spond; the hoped-for new era of harmonyhas never arrived.

The region's political parties have donealmost nothing for the common good, pre-

ferring to protect their own milItiamen orenlist them in the police rather than helpestabhsh the rule of law. Many people riskbeing killed or kidnapped, especiallySunnis, former members of Mr Hussein'sBaath party, those whose behavIOur of-fends puritamcal militiamen, and mlddle-class people who look as if they could paya fat ransom. Most Basrawis moan aboutthe bullymg by militiamen or pohce (oftenthe same thing) at Impromptu check-points, the corpses found a few yards frompolice stations, and the authorities' mabil-ity or unwIihngness to stop such horrors.

Who is guilty?Some blame nsmg sectarian tensIOnsacross Iraq, others blame a foreign hand,be It British or Iranian, but many say thetroubles are largely of the Basrawi politi-cians' own making, albeit enhanced byIraq's generallawlessness and the corrupt-ing influence of oil smuggling that Mr Hus-

NoONE was happier at the death inJune of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the

proclaimed leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq,than Jamal Hussein. The morning beforean American air-strike killed Iraq's topterrorist, the 38-year-old civil servarItwoke up to find a note slipped under thedoor of his flat in western Baghdad. Itcalled him "a Shia son of the devil" andsaid he had a week to leave or he wouldbe killed. He had heard of such threatsbefore and shrugged them off, but thisone was different: it was signed by al-Qaeda in Iraq. Within hours Mr Hussein,bis wife and two young sons hadthrown their worldly goods into theback of a cousin's pick-up truck andwere heading north along the bandit-rid-den roads out of Baghdad towards thecalm of Kurdistan.

They are among thousands of Iraqiswho bave arrived in the northern self-rule provinces since the bombing of aShia shrine at Samaria in February un-leashed a wave of sectarian violence inBaghdad and surrounding iUeas that isstill going on. Since the first Gulf warended in 1991, Iraqi Kurdistan had beena safe haven for Kurds seeking to protectthemselves from Saddam Hussein'sgenocidal tendencies. Now it has be-come a sanctuary for anyone wanting toescape sectarian violence in central Iraq,especially in and around Baghdad.

Many Iraqis with cash and connec-tions have already resettled abroad. ButIraq's new ministry of displacement and

sein started in order to dodge sanctions im-posed by the UN back m 1991.

But even by Iraqi standards, Basra'sgovernment is weak and divided. Else-where m the south, the strongest force lo-cally has usually been the Supreme Coun-cilfor Islamic RevolutIOnin Iraq (SCIRI),anIslamist Shia party strongly tied to theclergy. In Basra, a sCIRI-linked coalitIOnwon 20 of the provincial council's 41 seatsm the election of January 2005, but the co-ahtion was divided. The province's power-ful governorship went to the small butwell-organised Fadila party, which fol-lows the radicalldeology of the late GrandAyatollah Muhammad Sadeq al-Sadr butrejects the authonty of his son, Muqtadaal-Sadr, who took over most of his father'sclerical network in order to set up hisMahdi Army.

Since then, Fadila has built up its ownpower base and web of patronage. "If youwant a job, go and pray under that aw- ~~

migration says that more than 200,000Iraqis have been displaced within thecountry by violence since February.Some 1,250 families are relocating everyweek. "Threats, rumours, revenge kill-ings, terrorism, kidnappings, sectarianstrife, trigger-happy American soldiersandjust plain old violent crime" are themain causes, says a semor civil servant

Neither UN agencies nor Kurdish offi-cials have exact figures, but a fair guess isthat, as well as the 200,000 mentionedas displaced, another 40,000-50,OSJOhave sought sanctuary in Kurdistan.Many are Christians and Kurds; andBaghdad's entire Sabean-Mandean pop-ulace, which adheres to a pre-Islamicfaith and numbers around 25,000, issaid to have asked the Kurdish authori-ties for a haven. A lot, however, are mid-dle-class Sunni Arabs from Baghdad andMosul, Iraq's biggest northern city.

The influx has squeezed Kurdish ser-vices. Housing is scarce; rents are soar-ing. But most Kurds, with their own longhistory of uncertainty and displace-ment, have been kind to the newcomers.Moreover, Kurdish officials are seizing achance to beef up the workforce. La-bourers from southern Iraq now toilaway in the heat on Kurdistan's manybuilding projects, while some of Bagh-dad's top academics are now teaching inKurdish universities, dentists and doc-tors are findingjobs, and experiencedcivil servants such as Mr Hussein areworking in Iraqi Kurdistan's ministries.

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~ ning," runs a graffito on a wall beside a Fa-dila-run mosque. Many senIor polIcemenare Fadila appomtees. The party controlsthe oil minIstry's provincial branch andhas turned a private secunty force meantto guard Basra's oil mfrastructure into ItSown militia. Other militias loyal to SCIRIand the mainstream Sadrists also run localrackets, especially oil smuggling, which,by some estimates, ISworth $4 billion ayear nationwide.

The B,ooo-strong BntIsh force in Iraq'sfour southern provmces has been draggedinto the mess. A British deCision to roundup allegedly corrupt police promptedBasra's city council to cut relations; theyhave since been restored. Attacks on theBritish by msurgents thought mamly to befollowers of Mr Sadr's Mahdi Army havemcreased, though some BntIsh officersblame the attacks on splinter groups, pos-sibly led by local gangsters, without MrSadr's approvaL The sophisticated tech-nology used in the attacks, as well as otherevidence, suggests that other groups hit-ting the Bntish are linked to Iran's securityservices.

More than a score of British soldIershave been killed m the past year, includingfive in a helicopter crash, the cause ofwhich remains uncertain. Some analystssay the British have given up trying to im-

pose full control and instead are lettmgsome of the militias rule theIr local roosts,so long as they layoff the Bntish forces.

In May, in an effort to restore order,Iraq's newly installed prime minister, Nurial-Maliki, declared a state of emergency inthe south and told the Iraqi army, whIch,unlike the polIce, has stayed fairly free ofparty entanglements, to get a grip. Thingsgot a bIt better but the militias are unrepen-tant; violence could flare agam any time.

In any event, the British say they are setto withdraw gradually from the south. Lastmonth they (and their Australian and]ap-anese allies) handed control of the mostsparsely-populated of the four provmces,Muthanna, to Iraqi forces, thanks largely topowerfullocal tribes keepmg the peace.Iraqi and Bntish officials say that anothersouthern province, Dhi Qar, ISjust aboutready for a handover. Even Maysan, a law-less province where tribesmen clash withthe Bntish and each other, may soon behanded over, partly on the ground thatthere is a rough balance of power betweenthe competing factions and, anyway, thepeople of Maysan have long been accus-tomed to more violence than the CItyfolkof Basra.

What can be done?YetBasra, the south's most populous and

rich province, with Iraq's bIggest 011 fields,ISleast ready to be handed over. A yearago, Basrawis clamoured loudly for re-gional autonomy, but now many want thecentral government to step in and curb the

milItIas. Mr Mallki set up a "Basra securitycommittee" that was supposed to appointa supremo to crack down on police corrup-tion and militias, but Fadlla hmted Itmightnot co-operate. The new oil mimster, Hus-sein al-ShahnstanI, says that by cuttingfuel subsidIes and stoppmg a fuel handoutto Basra's fishmg fleet he has reduced thesmugglmg whIch helped fund Basra'sCrIminalgangs.

But the central government's power islimIted. Some Basrawis hope that FadIla

will get kicked out m commg elections butthey are unlikely to be held soon. In anyevent, IraqI electIOns, at any level, haverarely been won by reformIst technocrats,unless they have struck deals with theparty machines. If Fadila were ousted, ei-ther SCIRI or Muqtada al-Sadr's wmg ofthe Sadnsts, both running mIlItias and nei-ther known for theIr competence, wouldprobably take over. So the British mayhave to stay m Iraq's Increasmgly lawlesssouthern provmce for a good while yet. •

Turkey • By Jon B. Wolfsthal and Jessica c. Varnum

Heading off Ankara's nuclear temptation

llurkey'sincentivesto obtain nuclear

weapons have beensteadily mounting.

38

WASHINGTON

Nothing good can come from a nuclear-armed Iran. But in case the internationalcommunity needs additional motivation tohead off Tehran's nuclear ambitions, states

should consider that a nuclear Iran might cause Tur-key - whose incentives to go nuclear have beensteadily mounting - to pursue a nuclear option of itsown.

As a NATO ally, prospective member of the Euro-pean Union and secular bridge to the Islamic world,Turkey is a much-needed and increasingly raresource of stability for the region and the global non-proliferation regime. Should the Turkish domino beoverturned by a nuclear Iran, it could take otherstates with it - including Egypt, Syria and Saudi Ara-bia, with unpredictable consequences

It is not by chance that Turkey has no nuclearweapons. Great diplomatic efforts were made in the1960s and 1970s to dissuade it from obtaining them.Turkey's ratification of the Nuclear NonproliferationTreaty in 1980 - a decade after it was completed -was largely predicated ,on NATO and u.s. securityguarantees.

Embedded in the global nonproliferation regimeever since, Turkey is able to enjoy the peaceful bene-fits of nuclear technology and there are no suspi-cions, let alone evidence, that Turkey has violatedany ofits nonproliferation commitments.

Turkey's security situation is changing rapidly,however. The fighting in Lebanon could spill over atany time; Kurdish separatists, emboldened by the

situation in Iraq, threaten Turkey's territorial integ-rity. General unrest in Iraq and the unpredictabilityof Syrian policy put Turkish leaders on edge. Addinga nuclear Iran to this equation - with missiles capa-ble of targeting all ofTurkey - makes it obvious whyeven optimists wonder about Turkey's ultimate nu-clear direction.

When the Cold War ended, so too did Turkey's ab-solute confidence in NATO's security commitment.Fortunately, Ankara has responded .to growing uncertainties by seek- ------ing further integration with theWest. Yet even as Turkey's neigh-borhood becomes more dangerousand its strategic value to the Westincreases, it is the oft-neglectedpartner.

U.S.-Turkish relations remaincool in the aftermath of Turkey's2003 refusal to allow the transit ofU.S. troops into Iraq. The increase in terrorismagaillst Turkey by the Iraq-based Kurdistan WorkersParty, along with the perception that the UnitedStates is doing too little to stop it, have further ex-acerbated tensions.

Meanwhile, the EU continues to hedge on Turkishmembership, and even the current Turkish goverp-ment's strong commitment to the EU accession pro-cess is beginning to waver.

Amid these uncertainties, a nuclear Iran might betoo much for Turkey's leaders to process, and mightpush them to the nuclear edge. That Turkey recently

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

decided to invest $1billion in missile defense is a re-minder of its real and growing concerns about Iran'snuclear and missile programs.

Beyond preventing Iran from proliferating, thebest hope of keeping Turkey non-nuclear is to con-vince its leaders that the West remains fully commit-ted to its security. The EU must convince Turkey thatthe sacrifices it continues to make toward the goal ofaccession are not in vain, the United States should be

more attentive to Turkey's con-cerns about Iraq, and NATO shouldrecommit itself to the ultimate pre-servation of Turkey's security.

Evaluating Turkey's worseningsecurity situation, one inevitablyconcludes that its policy makers

cannot help but keep the nuclearoption in reserve, even while re-maining committed to nonprolifer-ation. The West must therefore be

wil~i~g to undert~ke policies that will strengthen theposItion of Turkish leaders trying to hold the non-proliferation line by alleviating the threats Turkeyfaces.

If '!le deal no~ with the root causes ofTurkey's in-centives to obtam nuclear weapons, we may still beable to avert a major crisis.

. Jon B. Wolfsth~l is a nonproliferationfellow andJes-sIca C. Varnum IS an Armstrong Leadership intern atthe Center for Strategic and International StudiesWashington. '

• Army recruiting improves

grims near another Shiite shrine inKufa, killing at least 12people.

The bombings in Kufa seemed inten-ded to provoke Moktada al-Sadr, a rad-ical Shiite cleric, whose militia is ac-cused by U.S. officials and many SunniArabs of slaughtering Sunnis acrossBaghdad and elsewhere. Sadr's headmosque is in Kufa, and he occasionallypreaches there on Fridays.

Sadr's main office is right next to theShrine of Ali in Najaf, as are those ofsome of the country's leading ayatollahs.The city is home to the marjaiyah, con-sidered by many Shiites to be the fourtop clerics of their faith, and the base forthe hawza, a venerable seminary.

Prominent Shiites have lived or stud-ied in Najaf, including Ayatollah Ruhol-lah Khomeini, who led the 1979Islamicrevolution in Iran, and Hassan Nasral-lah, the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The New York TImes

The U.S. Army says it will meet its2006 recruiting goal, pulling itself upfrom a severe shortfall last year, TheAssociated Press reported from Wash-ington.

The Pentagon's largest service - andthe one bearing the brunt in the wars inIraq and Mghanistan - enlisted 10,890people last month.

That brings the total to 62,505 for theyear and puts the army on course tomeet its goal of 80,000 for the budgetyear ending next month, JeffSpara, armyrecruiting division chief, said Thursday.

"We are going to make the mission,"he told a Pentagon briefing, crediting,among other things, additional recruit-ers, better pay bonuses and other incen-tives and new policies on eligibility.

Spara challenged contentions that theservice was lowering its standards forrecruits because it has been stretchedthin after three years of war in Iraq.

as a police officer searched his body, ac-cording to local officials and the primeminister's office. A ball of flame en-gulfed the police officers at the check-point, killing at least five of them, saidDr. Munthir al-Ethari, the head of thehealth bureau in Najaf. At least eightwomen were among the dead.

Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, the primeminister and a Shiite, blamed loyalistsof Saddam Hussein for the bombing, aswell as "takfiris," a term that refers tofundamentalist Sunni Arabs who con-sider Shiites to be infidels.

Major General William Caldwell 4th,a spokesman for the American com-mand, issued a statement saying the at-tack was the work of "a vicious deathsquad who targeted innocent Iraqispracticing their faith at one of the holi-est sites in Iraq."

Najaf's economic growth is depend-ent on a steady stream of religious tour-ists, including many from neighboringIran. Under Saddam's rule, few Shiitesfrom outside Iraq were allowed to makepilgrimages to the Shrine of Ali Nowthousands stream into the city each day,according to some Iraqi officials.

Powerful Shiite parties with militiashave control of the security forces in theprovince encompassing Najaf, and thearea was once considered a safe havenshielded from the incessant bombingsthat plagued central Iraq. But a recentseries of deadly attacks has eroded thesense of security.

On July 18,a suicide bomber explodeda van after luring day laborers into hiscar outside a Shiite shrine in the neigh-boring city of Kufa, killing at least 53people and wounding more than 100.

That took place less than two weeksafter a suicide car bomber rammed hissedan into tWo busloads of Iranian pil-

Bomber kills 35 near shrine in NajafAttack raises fearsof sectarian violence

By Edward Wong

BAGHDAD: An explosive worn on abelt by a suicide bomber who intendedto blow himself up inside the holiestshrine of Shiite Islam went off Thurs-day during a police patdown at a check-point near the shrine, killing at least 35people and wounding more than 120others, including Iranian pilgrims, Iraqiofficials said.

The attack, which took place in Najaf,160 kilometers, or 100 miles, south ofBaghdad, was likely to ignite furtherrounds of sectarian violence in Iraq, es-pecially in the increasingly chaotic cap-ital. If the attacker had blown up insidethe shrine itself, the ensuing wave of re-venge killings by Shiites on SunniArabs would almost certainly havedwarfed the sectarian bloodletting thatfollowed the bombing of another Shiiteshrine in February.

The explosion underscored the de-gradation of security in the spiritualheart of the Shiite-dominated south, anarea once believed to be under the tightcontrol of Iraqi and American forces.The most revered Shiite cleric in Iraq,Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, lives justblocks away from the shrine.

Other attacks around Iraq, mostlyaimed at civilians, brought the death tollfor Thursday to at least 48, even as addi-tional Iraqi and U.S. troops continued todeploy across Baghdad to try to bring amodicum of security to the capital.

The blast in Najaf ripped into a crowdof Shiite pilgrims who had come to thegolden-domed Shrine of Ali on the an-niversary of the death of Zaineb, thegranddaughter of the ProphetMuhammad. The shrine sits at the centerof Najaf and is a memorial to Ali, theprophet's son-in-law and the first martyrin the epochal seventh-century split be-tween Sunni and Shiite Islam.

The bomber walked up to a policecheckpoint about 20 meters, or 60 feet,from the shrine, and the bomb exploded

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Ozeti

Iran stokes Iraq unrest, U.S. says

the threat of economic and diplomaticsanctions. President Mahmoud Ahmad-inejad ofIran has insisted that his coun-try will pursue its nuclear program.

"The concern that we have is thatIran and Hezbollah would use thosecontacts that they have with groups andthe situation here, use thos~ to causemore difficulties or cause difficultiesfor the coalition," Khalilzad said.

If the United Nations passes anotherresolution against Iran after the Aug. 31deadline, he said, that "could increasethe pressure on Iran," and "Iran couldrespond to by further pressing its sup-porters or people that it has ties with orpeople that it controls to)ncrease thepressure on the coalition, not only inIraq but elsewhere as well."

Some military analysts cast the Israel-Hezbollah war as a proxy struggle be-tween the United States and Iran, andprominent conservatives in Washingtonhave called for military action againstIran. William Kristol, editor of TheWeekly Standard, an influential conser-vative magazine, said on Fox News lastmonth that the Bus!1administration hadbeen "coddling" Iran and that the war inLebanon and Israel represented "a greatopportunity to begin resuming the of-fensive against the terrorist groups."

American and British forces in Iraqhave stepped up operations recentlyagainst elements of Sadr's Mahdi Army,raiding hideouts and engaging inpitched battles in the Sadr City districtof Baghdad and in the area aroundBasra, the southern port city. Last Mon-day, American forces called in an air at-tack during a raid in Sadr City. Maliki,who depends on Sadr for political sup-port against rival Shiites, later de-nounced the raid, saying he had neverapproved it and that the Americans hadused "excessive force."

The New York Times

.~Lauren Victoria Bur e

Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, said the violence could soon increase.

the Iranians and Hezbollah might wantthem to," Khalilzad said.

Iran and Hezbollah want the Shiiteleaders "to behave by mobilizingagainst the coalition or taking actionsagainst the coalition," he added.

At least in rhetoric, the top Shiite lead-ers in Iraq have forcefully condemnedthe Israeli assault on Lebanon, muchmore so than senior officials in SunniArab cduntries. Furious denunciationshave come from Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most revered Shiite cleric

here, Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Ma-liki and the Parliament, which called theIsraeli airstrikes "criminal aggression."

When Maliki visited Washington lastmonth, congressional leaders pressedhim to denounce Hezbollah as a terroristgroup, but Maliki dodged the request.

The mercurial Sadr has come closestof all the Shiite leaders in hinting thatIraqis might take up arms in support ofHezbollah. He said in late July that Iraqiswould not "sit by with folded hands"whi1e Lebanon burned, and on Aug. 4 hesummoned up to 100,000 followers to ananti-Israel and anti-American rally inBaghdad. Most of those who showed upwere angry young men, many swathedin white cloths symbolizing funeralshrouds and some toting Kalashnikovs.

Sympathy with Hezbollah is not lim-ited to the radical fringe. As images ofthe destruction in Lebanon continueflickering across the Arab televisionnetworks, many ordinary Iraqis say theyare ready to join the mujahedeen in holywar against American-backed Israel.

Khalilzad said Iran could stoke moreviolence among the Shiite militias asthe end of the month draws nearer.

That is expected to be a time of hightension between Iran and the UnitedStates because a UN Security Councilresolution gives Iran until Aug. 31 tosuspend uranium enrichment or face

By Edward Wong

BAGHDAD: Iran is pressing Shiite mi-litias here to step up attacks against theAmerican-led forces because of the Is-raeli assault on Lebanon, the U.S. am-bassador to Iraq said Friday.

Iran could foment even more violenceas it faces off with the United States andUnited Nations over its nuclear programin the coming weeks, he added.. The Iranian incitement has led to asurge in bold mortar and rocket attackson the fortified Green Zone, said theambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad.

The Green Zone, a four-square-mile,or about 10-square-kilometer, area onthe west bank of the Tigris River, en-closes baroque palaces built by SaddamHussein that now house the seat of theIraqi government and the U.S. Embassy,and that are protected by layers of con-crete blast walls and concertina wire.

The Shiite guerrillas are members ofsplinter groups of the Mahdi Army, thepowerful militia created by' radicalShiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, Khalilzadsaid. The Mahdi Army rose up twiceagainst the Americans in 2004.

The groups behind the recent attackshave ties to both Iran and Hezbollah,the Iranian-backed Shiite militia inLebanon that has been battling Israelfor a month, the ambassador added.

"One of the main points of contact issome groups have ties to Hezbollah,"Khalilzad said in an interview Friday inhis home inside the Green Zone. "Ithink this is an effort that is continuing,that Iran is seeking to put more pres-sure, encourage more pressure on thecoalition from the forces that they areallied with here, and the same is maybetrue of Hezbollah."

Khalilzad's remarks are the first pub-lic statements by a senior Bush adminis-tration official that directly link violencehere in Iraq to the war in Lebanon andIsrael, and to growing American pres-sure over Iran's nuclear program. Untilnow, U.S. officials have characterizedIranian influence in Iraq in vague terms,and none have publicly drawn a directconnection between Shiite militantgroups here and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Khalilzad's comments also reinforcethe observations of some analysts thatthe rise of the majority Shiites in Iraq,long oppressed by Sunni Arab rulers, isfueling the creation of a "Shiite cres-cent" across the Middle East, withgroups in Iraq, Iran and Lebanon work-ing together against common enemies,whether they be the United States, Isra-el or Sunni Arab nations.

But Khalilzad insisted that the mostpowerful Shiite leaders here had not yetpushed for more attacks against theAmericans, even though Iran would likethem to. That includes Sadr, he said.

"Generally the Shia leadership herehave behaved more as Iraqi patriots andhave not reacted in the way that perhaps

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LE FIGARO 11 août 2006

IRAKUn kamikaze a causéla mort d'au moins35 personnes, hier,à proximité du mausoléede l'imam Ali, dans la villesainte chiite de Nadjaf.

100 Irakiens tués chaque jourLes partis chiites ont fait part

de leur indignation. « Nous en ap-pelons à tous pour mettre un termeaux actes criminels qui visent descivils en Irak, dans le but d'aboutirà une partition du pays et d'enrayerle processus politique et de réconci-

Mohammad Baqer Hakim, chef du liation nationale )l, a déclaré AzizConseil supérieur de la révolution Zein al-Ali,un porte-parole du CS-islamique en Irak (CSRII),l'un des RH.« Nous demandons aux autori-plus importants partis chiites, tés de prendre des mesures de sécu-avaient été tuées dans un attentat rité draconiennes. Il faut réactiverà la voiture piégée. le rôle des comités populaires pour

Des chaînes de télévision ont protéger les citoyens )l, a commenté?iffu~~ hier des images de cor~s Saheb al-Ameri, le porte-parole duIdentifiés par des ,ll\;méros et de- chefradical chiite Moqtada al-Sa-posés les uns à cote des autres à dr en référence aux milices de~ê~e l~ s~l, près de l'h~p~tal.Des . q~artier.Cl;~ls ams~ que des pohclers o,n~ D'après un réeent rapport despen dans I attentat. I:attaque a ete Nations unies 100 Irakiens sontrevendiquée sur un site Internet 'par un mouvement se présentant tués en moyenne chaque jour. Lecomme « les soldats des compa- ministère de la Santé,a décomptégnons du Prophète )I. plus de 1 800 morts a Bagdad en

juillet. Le premier ministre Nourial-Maliki avait pourtant lancé àla mi-Juin, à grand renfort de publi-cité, un plan de sécurité pourBagdad intitulé « En avant en-semble )l, pour lequel plus de50 000 membres des forces de sé-curité irakiennes et soldats améri-cains sont déployés. L'échec de ceplan a conduit au lancement, lun-di, d'une « deuxième phase .),pourlaquelle 5 000 soldats américainssupplémentaires sont en traind'être acheminés dans la capitale.

T. O. (AVEC AFP ET REUTERS)

Carnage prèsd'un lieu saintchiite à Nadjaf

, blessés hier matin dans la villesainte chiite de Nadjaf. Un hommeportant une ceinture remplie d'ex-plosifs s'est fait exploser à l'entréedu marché de la vieilleville,devantl'entrée du mausolée de l'imamAli, le lieu saint le plus importantde l'islam chiite. La ville a déjà étéla cible d'attentats sanglants: le

UN ATTENTATsuicide a causé au 29 août 2003 notamment, 83 per-moins 35 morts et une centaine de sonnes, dont le dignitaire chiite

Nadjaf,durement touchée hier, avait déjà été la cible d'attentats meurtriers, notamment le 29 aoat 2003.Alaa al-Marjani/AR

ftlHondeMardl15 août 2006

Walid Joumblatt: l'Irannégocie son dossier nucléaire«sur la terre brûlée du Liban»MOUKHTARA(Montagne du Chouf)

ENVOYÉ SPÉClALDans un français châtié, WalidJoumblatt affiche son pessimis-me, du ton las de celui qui en atrop vu. Dimanche 13 août, à laveille du jour prévu pour la cessa-tion des hostilités entre le Hez-bollah et Israël, le dirigeant dru-ze, retranché dans la montagnedu Chouf, au cœur de sonimmense château, dit qu'il necroit pas à une paix durable.

« Les Syriens et les Iraniensn'ont pas tardé àfaire savoir quela résolution des Nations uniesn'est pas dans l'intérêt du Liban.Et pour le Hezbollah, respecterune résolution ne veut pas direl'accepter. Alors ... » explique ledéputé et chef du Parti socialisteprogressiste (PSP), en ponc-tuant ses propos d'un geste désa-busé.

L'intervention vidéo d'Has-san Nasrallah, le secrétaire géné-ral du Hezbollah, samedi, à la

telévision, est pétrie des ambiguï-tés rhétoriques dont ilest coutu-mier, laisse-t-il entendre: « Lemoins que l'on puisse dire, c'estque la sincérité de Nasrallah resteà prouver quant à sa détermina-tion à accepter leprocessus dedésarmement de ses hommes. »

« On peut admettre que ce quivient de se passer depuis le12 juillet a permis au Parti deDieu de casser l'invincibilité d'Is-raël, continue M.Joumblatt,

mais tant que cela s'inscrit dans lejeu syra-iranien. L'Iran négociesur la terre brûlée du Liban les ter-mes de la poursuite de son pro-gramme nucléaire. Quant à laSyrie, elle veut se venger du Liban,d'où ses troupes ont été chassées[en avril200S] et elle est aujour-d'hui satellisée par l'Iran. »

« Vers un Orient lointain»M.Joumblatt estime par

ailleurs que son pays est pris aupiège d'un èercle vicieux, dans la

mesure où le Hezbollah risquede ne pas accepter d'être désar-mé si les Israéliens ne se retirentpas. Il estime aussi qu'Israël refu-sera de se retirer aussi long-temps que le déploiement de laForce intérimaire des Nationsunies au Liban (Finul) et de l'ar-mée libanaise ne sera pas effec-tif.

pbur le chef druze, qui voueune haine tenace au pouvoir duprésident Bachar Al-Assad, leLiban est redevenu un champ debataille expérimental pour lesforees étrangères.

Pour lui, après l'assassinat, enfévrier 2005, de l'ancien premierministre Rafic Hariri, et ledépart consécutif des forcessyriennes, « l'espoir d'un Libanindépendant, certes fragile, exis-tait ». « Désormais, conclut-ilavec un humour grinçant, enréférence à l'axe syra-iranien, onest tiré vers l'Orient lointain. » •

BRUNO PHILIP

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femOllldtJeudl!7 août 2006

A Bagdad, l'armée américainedresse des murs entre communautés

Des soldats américains patrouillent dans le quartier sunnite d'AI-Dora, le 9 aoûtà Bagdad, dans le cadre de l'opération « En avant ensemble» menée conjointementavec les forces de sécurité irakiennes. SCOTT NELSON/WPN

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Des barrières de béton ontcommencé à être installéesautour du quartier d'Al-Dora.L'objectif est de séparer sunniteset chiites afin d'éviter lesviolences interconfessionnelles

Les armées américaine et irakienneont commencé, mardi 15 août, àconstruire un mur encerclant

Al-Dora, un quartier sud de Bagdad. Dessoldats ont posé des barrières de bétonpréfabriquées afin d' « empêcher les terro-ristes d'entrer », selon l'armée américaine.

SiAl-Dora est un vaste quartier mixte,l'opération consiste, dans ce cas précis, àisoler une zone habitée majoritairementpar des sunnites afin de la protéger d'in-cursions de milices chiites. Depuis queBagdad est en proie à la guerre civile etque des transferts de populations entrechiites et sunnites s'opèrent, Al-Dora aété l'un des quartiers les plus touchés parles violences intercommunautaires.

Reconnaissant l'échec du « plan desécurité "En avant ensemble" » lancé enjuin, l'armée américaine et les forces desécurité irakiennes ont dévoilé, le11août, une nouvelle stratégie, quiconsiste à séparer les quartiers de Bag-dad selon des critères communautaires.« Nous allons nous concentrer sur lesfron-tières confessionnelles, aller dans ces sec-teurs, les nettoyer, installer lesforces de sécu-rité, apporter de l'aide économique et tra-vailler avec les leaders locaux afin que les

:ge~~,se sentent en confiance », a expliqi\'éle commandant de la Force multinationa-le, le général américain George Casey.L'objectif est de « nettoyer Bagdad avantle ramadan», fin septembre.

« Comités de défense populaires»Lequartier d'Al-Dora, où sévissent à la

Ifois des comqattants sunnites liés à la gué-rilla ir~enne ~t des milices chiites, a étéle premier visé par cette stratégie. Mardi,alors que les premières barrières de bétonétaient posées, l'armée américaine, quil'a bouclé dès le 7 août, semblait satisfaitedu bilan d'une première semaine d'opéra-tions: « Auparavant, on trouvaIt vingt-cinq engins explosifs par semaine à Dora.Nous n'en avons trouvé que quatre cettesemaine. C'est un succès. »

Marquant leur défiance face au plande sécurité, deux mouvements chiites, leConsJil suprême de la révolution islami-que en Irak (CSRII), pilier de la coalition

au pouvoir, et la faction de l'imam Moqta-da Al-Sadr, opposant à l'alliance américa-no-irakienne, ont créé, mardi, des « comi-tés de défense populaires» dans la villesainte chiite de Nadjaf, après un attentatqui a eu lieu le 10 août devant le mausoléede l'imam Ali.

Les deux mouvements disposent déjàde milices, la Brigade Badr pour le CSRIIet l'Armée du Mahdi pour MoqtadaAl-Sadr. Ils souhaitent étendre leurs« comités» à Bagdad et à tout l'Irak afinde protéger la population chiite des atta-ques de la guénlla sunnite.

L'armée américaine a récemment vio-lemment attaqué l'Armée du Mahdi dansle faubourg de Sadr City,à Bagdad, y com-pris avec un recours à l'aviation. Le pre-mier ministre, Nouri Al-Maliki, opposé àla création de milices, a condamné le raidaméricain. Impuissant, il semble prisentre deux feux.

Et pendant que le président irakien,Jalal Talabani, continue d'affirmer qu'il« ne croit pas qu'une guerre civile se dérou-le en Irak », les gardiens de l'ordre publicdressent des murs .•

RÉMYOURDAN

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Ozeti

Moyen-Orient Téhéran célèbre la «victoire» du Hezbollah, met en garde l'Etat juif et affirme ses ambitions

Liban, Israël, nucléaire: l'Iran sur tous les fronts

MOUNANAIM

mises en garde et des menaces, ils enten-dent rentabiliser cette «victoire» parprocuration, décrochée par des combat-tants formés à l'école iranienne et grâce àdes armes en provenance de la Républi-que islamique dans leur écrasante majori-té. Téhéran s'est borné, pour l'heure, à

hausser le ton à propos de son program-me nucléaire.

Le Hezbollah ne s'est, de son côté,jamais dérobé à sa filiation idéologiqueet à son alliance avec l'Iran. Il n'est toute-fois pas certain que les épanchements deson tuteur contribuent à faciliter sa tâcheau Liban. Ils risquent au contraire d'ac-centuer les suspicions d'une partie desLibanais quant à la priorité que le Partide Dieu accorderait, selon eux, aux inté-rêts de la République islamique par rap-port à ceux du Liban.

Ces suspicions avaient déjà été intensi-fiées par ce que certains considèrent com-me une volte-face du Hezbollah concer-nant la résolution 1701 du Conseil desécurité de l'ONU. Selon des sources pro-ches du gouvernement libanais, ce seraitsous l'influence de Téhéran que le Hez-bollah, après avoir accepté ladite résolu-tion avec quelques réserves, aurait déci-dé de faire de la résistance concernantson désarmement .•

L'AFFICHE en elle-même est explicite.Sur fond sépia, comme s'il s'agissait d'unevieille photo d'une réalité qui perdure, onvoit dessinés des casques nazis renversés,surmontés d'un autre casque, frappé,celui-là, d'une étoile de David, qui sembleleur faire pendant.

Cette affiche annonce l'ouverture,lun-di 14 août à Téhéran, au Musée d'artcontemporain palestinien, d'une exposi-tion de caricatures sur l'Holocauste, der-nier avatar de la polémique sur les douze~aricatures du prophète Mahomet~ubliées ..pa.t,le Ijournal danois tjyllands- ,

-Posten le. 30 fleptembre - 2005 et quiavaient suscité la colère de millions demusulmans dans le monde entier. Protes-tations qui s'étaient soldées par des émeu-tes meurtrières, comme au Pakistan, et lesaccage d'ambassades et d'églises. Desjournaux européens qui avaient reproduitles caricatures avaient été pris à partie. Le

Le Hezbollah sous influenceSi, comme le Hezbollah lui-même, les

dirigeants iraniens n'avaient sans doutepas prévu l'ampleur de la réaction à lacapture, le 12juillet, de deux soldats israé-liens par le Parti de Dieu, la résistancedes combattants libanais face à l'impo-sante machine de guerre israélienne n'afait que décupler leur satisfaction.

Il reste à savoir comment, au-delà des

dinejad dans un discours, l'aube d'un«nouveau Proche-Orient », aux antipo-des de celui projeté par les Etats-Unis etqui serait précisément débarrassé de « ladomination américaine et britannique».

Brossant le tableau d'un David contreGoliath, d'un « petit groupe dejeunes hom-mes pieux, confiants en Dieu», face aux« pouvoirs corrompus des criminels améri-cains, britanniques et sionistes»,M. Ahmadinejad s'est exclamé :« Lapro-messe de Dieu est devenue réalité! »

Lesdirigeants de la République islami-que considèrent qu'ils ont d'autantmoins de raisons de maquiller leur tutel-le sur le Hezbollah que les Etats-Unis nese privent pas d'afficher leur soutien actifet inconditionnel à Israël. Leur influenceau Liban a du reste été reconnue, aumoins indirectement, par l'aveu de diri-geants occidentaux du statut de l'Irancomme acteur important sur l'échiquierrégional.

-

U!1e exposition de caricatures sur l'Holocauste s'estouverte à Téhéran

ORGANISÉE EN RÉPONSE AUX DESSINS DANOIS SUR MAHOMET

BEYROUTH

CORRESPONDANTE

Aux yeux des dirigeants de Téhéran,le Hezbollah libanais est le plus« gratifiant» de tous les partis que

la République islamique a cherché à inspi-rer depuis son instauration en Iran: ilsne pouvaient donc que se féliciter de la« victoire» que vient de remporter, seloneux, le Parti de Dieu contre Israël. Aussiest-ce à une véritable démonstration deliesse que s'est livré,mardi 15août, le pou-voir iranien, au lendemain de l'arrêt descombats entre l'Etat juif et le Hezbollah.

Dès la soirée de lundi, des motos et desbus ont sillonné Téhéran, brandissantdes drapeaux du Hezbollah, tandis que,sur les toits des immeubles, des partisansdu pouvoir ont scandé « Allah Akbar! »(Dieu est le plus grand). Mardi, le métroet les bus étaient gratuits. Des gâteaux etdes boissons ont été distribués devant cer-taines administrations.

Les dirigeants iraniens ont récupéré àieur avantage la résistance des combat-tants du Hezbollah. Tantôt pour menacerIsraël du pire - un tir de missile Sha-hab-3 d'une portée de 2 000 km quiatteindrait Tel-Aviv,selon Ahmed Khata-mi, l'un des chefs religieux de la tendancela plus dure - si l'Etat juif était tenté delancer une attaque contre la Républiqueislamique. Et tantôt pour annoncer, com-me l'a fait le président Mahmoud Ahma-

A Téhéran, le concours de dessins sur "Holocauste organisé au Musée d'art contemporain palestinien a accueilli, lundi 14 août, sespremiers visiteurs. En arrière-plan, l'affiche de l'exposition. BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP

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Newsweek AUGUST 14, 2006

Why U.S. policy.. -_.-..toward Tehran will only .make mattersworse ..Bv NIS1D HAJARI -

rédacteur en chef du journal danois avaitprésenté ses excuses pour tenter de cal-mer ce qui était vite devenu une crisediplomatique majeure.: « Les journaux occidentaux ont publiéçes dessins sacrilèges sous le prétexte de laliberté d'expression, alors voyons s'ils pen-sent vraiment ce qu'ils disent et publionsdes dessins sur l'Holocauste», avait lancé,en février 2006, le journal iranien Ham-chari. Un quotidien à grand tirage pro-che de l'entourage du président iranien,te ~onservateur Mahmoud Ahmadinejadqui, depuis son arrivée au pouvoir enaoût 2005, a multiplié les déclarationstraitant l'Holocauste de « mythe» et sou-haitant la « disparition» d'Israël.

Le concours a été aussitôt ouvert, avecl'appui de la Maison de la caricature ira-nienne. Le 13février, un avant-goût de laproduction à venir était diffusé sur son'site Internet. On y voyait deux vignettes.Sur la première, un juif passe en 1942:sous le portail d'Auschwitz où une ins-cription annonce: « Le travail apporte la.liberté ». Sur l'autre vignette, datée de2002, le même juif, fusil en main, entresur un champ de bataille sous un frontonqui dit: « La guerre apporte la paix».

Lesorganisateurs du concours, qui, lun-di, ont insisté à nouveau sur le fait que levéritable holocauste à leurs yeux était«celui des Palestiniens », ont reçu 1100caricatures, en provenance d'une soixan-taine de pays. Deux cent quatre ont étéretenues, les trois« meilleures» recevront12000,8000 et 5 000 dollars de récom-pense. La majorité des dessinateurs sontiraniens, mais figurent aussi sur la lis-te sept Français et douze Américains.

La source d'inspiration, en revanche,est la même: croix gammée se transfor-

mant en étoile de David pour étranglerdes Palestiniens ; le mot Israël dessinéavec un L final en forme de botte écra-sant une mappemonde ou encore une sta-tue de la Liberté tenant un livre sur l'Ho-locauste dans sa main gauche et faisantun salut nazi avec la droite.

L'exposition, prévue pour durer jus-qu'au 13 septembre, a déjà suscité devives réactions. Mardi, le mémorial del'Holocauste de Yad Vashem, à Jérusa-lem dédié aux six millions de juifs exter-mm'éspar les nazis, a publié un communi-

qué exhortant la communauté internatio-nale à réagir. « L'histoire a prouvé que lesilence face à des déclarations malfaisantesengendre des actions malfaisantes», expli-que le Yad Vashem, qui conclut: « L'ex-position de caricatures sur l'Holocauste àTéhér(1n, en Iran, un pays qui veut se doterde capacités nucléaires et dont le présidents'est prononcé pour un génocide d'Israël,doit mettre les voyants au rouge, non seule-ment pour Israël mais pour toutes lesnations éclairées. » •

MARIE-CLAUDE DECAMPS

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lFOLLIES

N IRANIAN STATE TV THESE DAYS, THE APPEALSto solidarity with Hizbullah are anything but subtle.One slick video collage zips from u.s. PresidentGeorge W Bush hailing the dawn of a new MiddleEast to a Beirut apartment tower being obliterated byIsraeli missiles. Urgent, martial music pounds

through a slide show of further contrasts-Bush and a screamingPalestinian girl; Condoleezza Rice and fear-stricken refugees fleeingsouthern Lebanon;John Bolton and a dead Lebanese child. Then, apause: defiant Hizbullah leader Sheik Hizbullah's being demolished by the Is-Hassan Nasrallah addresses an adoring raeli onslaught, that unease, too, is feed-crowd. When the music picks up again, ing a prickly defensiveness.Katyusha rockets fill the skies and Israelis True, international pressure on Iran iscower in bomb shelters. building. The Security Council's resolu-

Those who argue that the battle in tion threatening possible sanctions ifIranLebanon is really a proxy war with Iran does not halt its enrichment program byfor supremacy in the Middle East need the end of August passed 14-1. And whilenot look far for evidence. Yet the picture both Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leaderthat Iran presents on the ground is both Ayatollah Ali Khamenei-the real powermore complex than that and, given the in Iran -denounced the measure as bully-stalemate over the country's nuclear ing, they haven't yet rejected a negotiatingprogram, more worrisome. The greatest package presented in early June by the fiveconcern: everything that's happening permanent Security Council members andin Lebanon, Iran and the United States Germany, which also demands a suspen-right now is stiffening Tehran's resistance sion of Iran's nuclear program. (Tehranto what the United Nations Security officially plans to respond to the offer byCouncil demanded last week-a suspen- Aug. 22.) Still, the U.S.-driven strategy ofsion of the country's uranium-enrich- confrontation truly seems designed to ex-ment program. acerbate all the worst trends coursing

The bloodied Lebanese babies plas- through the region.tered across Mideast TV screens are Washington's argument that Iran sim-vindicating Tehran's claims about the in- ply cannot be trusted with a nuclear pro-iquity of the West. Iran's links to gram, for instance, now has to contendHizbullah, as well as the tirades of its with an inflamed nationalism. Anti-Amer-Israel-bashing president, Mahmoud icanism in Tehran goes beyond the bloodyAhmadinejad, are elevating the country murals that still spread across the walls ofto the leadership it's long coveted in the the former U.S. Embassy, or the ritualMiddle East. Perhaps even worse, ac- chants at Friday prayers each week (led bycording to a senior Western diplomat in a figure known as the Minister ofSlo-Tehran, the crisis has undercut those gans), or the equally ritual headlines inwithin the regime who might have com- the state media, enumerating Washing-promised over the nuclear issue. Contin- ton's "arrogances" on a daily basis. Iran's isuing violence has driven crude prices to a neonationalism of the sort common tonear $75 a barrel-a godsend for a gov- newly decolonized countries-a headyernment that depends on oil for as much mixture of bluff, insecurity, openness toas 80 percent of its revenues. And if, as and suspicion of the world. The teenagerssome insiders say, the mullahs fear who fIll the malls of north Tehran-the

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Iran

boys with their hair slicked back into exaggerated ducktails, thegirls glamorous in bejeweled sunglasses and loosely tied Pucciscarves-are more than happyto drink Coke, listen to iPods andwatchJ.Lo and Madonna on illegal satellite Tv. But their sense ofwell-being in the world is tied crucially to the idea that they areequal players in global culture.

To declare that they cannot be allowed advanced technology isa direct affront. For the regime, which has cleverly made the nu-clear program a signpost ofIran's modernity, there is no percent-age in backing down now. "This is no longer an economic issue-it's about politics and stature," says Hossein Marashi, a leadingpolitician and brother-in-law of the losing candidate in last year'selection, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. The idea thatthe government has raised Iran's place in the world has a surpris-ing currency in Iran, and won't easily be surrendered.

U.S. criticism only bolsters that reputation. "The more Ameri-ca and Israel blame Iran, the stronger Ahmadinejad becomes,"says Ebrahim Yazdi, the first post-revolution foreign minister

and now a reformist. Both a devout youth eager formartyrdom in Lebanon and a worldly,jaded artist(who serves home-brewed vodka alongwith the un-avoidable cups of sweet tea) praise the Iranian presi-dent in essentially the same terms. "Before, Americaattacked Iran and we had to defend ourselves;' saysthe youth. "Now it's the other way around-we havea voice, and the whole world is listening." As severalanalysts with links to the government point out, both theLebanon crisis and the stalemate over the nuclear program helpAhmadinejad in the same way-as a means ofburnishing hisimage, and of distracting Iranians from the various incompeten-cies ofhis administration.

Perhaps the greatest distraction is the flood of petrodollarsgushing through the Iranian system, propelled by fears of anAmerican attack or sanctions. Those expecting Tehran to looklike an imperial Persian capital-or another Havana, faded andpeeling from isolation, but gloriou~ in its decay-are bound to bedisappointed. Construction cranes tower over half-built sky-scrapers. Glossy new condo complexes blend fake marble andblue-mirrored glass in a style familiar to nouveau riche metropo-lises from Bangalore to Dubai. The well-paved streets are roilingwith cars-little Paykan sedans, mostly, but also shiny Peugeotsand even the odd BMW: Toward evening, as the heat of the daylifts, crowds of shoppers fill the sidewalks; hundreds of storesbeckon them with flat-screen TVs, Italian sofas and Puma sneak-

ers. It's as easy to find a $200 Bugatti knife set as a mosque,maybe easier.

Some $60 billion per year in oil revenue washes away mostblights on the Iranian economy. Subsidies that may run as highas $25 billion annually help keep gas prices down to a mere ninecents per liter; according to economist Saeed Laylaz, each ofthose little Iranian-made sedans uses six times as much fuel ascars in France. Ahmadinejad has made himself particularly pop-ular by traveling to remote provinces and doling out aid andcheap loans. Government contracts have increasingly gone tocronies and powerful constituencies like the RevolutionaryGuards, who inJune were awarded $8 billion worth of oil-sectorcontracts without tender. In fact, economic policy seems de-signed to buy off most of the population, easy when by some esti-mates the state controls two thirds ofIran's economy. "With theoil boom, the government can do anything without fearing theconsequences of its wrong decisions;' says Prof Masoud Nili, amacroeconomist at SharifUniversity ofTechnology in Tehran.

Opponents of the government are a lonely bunch.The reception area for the leading reformist party, theIslamic Iran Participation Front, is filled only withempty Naugahyde chairs and the lingering smell ofrawonions, a common condiment locally. Partyspokesman Saeed Shariati freely admits that part ofthe reason reformists hold only 39 seats in the 290-seat Parliament is that they could not draw a connec-

tion in voters' minds between democratic principles and theireconomic well-being. That task has been made immeasurablymore difficult by the hypocrisy Iranians believe they're witness-ing in the Middle East. "Bush says he supports human rights anddemocracy-that should apply notjust to Iranians but to Pales-tinians," says Mohsen Kadivar, a leading reformist cleric. Otherspoint to the chaos next door in Iraq as an effective advertisementagainstJeffersonian freedoms. But most crucially, the link be-tween Washington and Tel Avivhas thoroughly discredited notjust America but any Iranian who could plausibly be tarred as itsstooge. In Tehran today one is hard pressed to find a single re-former, even among several who have been jailed by the regime,who thinks that the United States is helping their cause.

Given all this, the offer currently before Tehran looks muchless attractive than Washington imagines it to be. Maintainingsome functioning enrichment program is the Iranians' red line-and the one thing the United Nations is asking them to give upoutright. Over and over again, those who deal with the mullahs

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in Iran insist that their greatest concern is not spreading the revo-lution but staying in power. Grand Ayatollah YusefSaanei, acontemporary of Khomeini's who fell out of favor, says of theregime: "They don't care about the people; they only care abouttheir own interests." Yet after Lebanon, the chances of the Bushadministration's providing the mullahs with airtight securityguarantees look notjust unlikely but impossible.

The international community has maintained a remarkableconsensus to this point, with even Russia publicly urging Iranto accept the deallast week. But Tehran knows time is likely tofracture that unity. "China and Russia are totally different [fromAmerica]," says Hossein Shariatmadari, president of the conser-vative Kayhan group of newspapers and an unofficial mouth-piece for the regime. "Some European leaders are even sendingus secret messages saying, 'Please, just come to a compromise,because we don't want to go further with this'." Even grantedthat he's exaggerating, European governments have certainlysplit with Washington over its handling of the Lebanon war. As

criticizing Tehran for its links to groups like Hizbullah serve lit11epurpose. No security guarantee should be offered outright, butthe prospect of one as part of a larger accord in the Persian Gulfcould be raised. And while the Security Council cannot backdown on its demand that Iran halt its enrichment activities, itcould sweeten the offer. Simultaneously unblocking some frozenIranian assets, for example, or turning over for trial some mem-bers of the Mujahedin Khalq Organization (MKO)-a dissidentgroup even the U.S. State Department admits are terrorists-would be a powerful PR move, if nothing else.

And that's the point. In alllikelihood the current Iranianregime will never be able to overcome its suspicion of the Bushadministration, any more than the Republican grass roots wouldsupport truly conciliatory gestures toward Tehran in an electionyear. But demonstrating some statesmanship would at least re-move doubts in the international community about Washington'sseriousness-and back the mullahs into a rhetorical corner. Forthe same reason, some pro-democracy types in Tehran say that

..que-5ll0na.ab.o.u.tlrmJlI1iisldJ:l.ajarLamL...r.eadJ1is-ÂUSw.eLs..aL~wsweek_international.COOL

~ America should seek a more open consular presence inIran, both to ease access to U.S. visas and to embarrassthe regime with the long lines out the door. (Kadivaralso smartly suggests offering more scholarships tostudents in the humanities, rather thanjust the sci-ences, to instill free-thinking values.)

True, a more generous U.S. policy risks confirm-ing the regime's growing conviction that bad behav-

ior pays. "The government feels they need to act confrontation-al in order to get anything from the West;' notes MohammadAtrianfar, publisher of the leading reformist daily, Shargh. Butall the other options on the table seem guaranteed to make abad situation worse, not better. The larger goal of fully democ-ratizing Iran is laudable but won't be realized throughairstrikes, Voice of America broadcasts featuring pro-shah ex-iles or, as one Tehran dissident noted dismissively, human-rights seminars that focus on how to surround and occupy astate radio station. "Democracy is not a commodity you can buyand transfer," says Emadedin Baghi, a prisoners' rights activistwho spent three years injail for accusing the Intelligence Min-istry ofbeing involved in the assassinations of Iranian intellec-tuals. "It's a process, and we have to go through certain stages inorder to develop democratic values." Making Iran a nuclearpariah isn't going to help that process along. Living up to ourown ideals just may.

With MAZIAR BAHARI In Tehran and ZVIKA KRIEGER

Council on Foreign Relations Iran expert RayTakeyh says, if the stalemate continues, "in severalmonths Europeans are going to have to ask them-selves iftheywant [to deal with another] crisis inthe Middle East."

What can Washington do? First of all, the Unit-ed States might take a page from the Iranian regimeand compartmentalize. In order to maintain an in-ternal consensus on the nuclear issue, Tehran has sought toneutralize potential flashpoints. The burgeoning youth popula-tion, for instance, has been largely placated. Those Pucciscarves have been slipping farther and farther back on the capi-tal's most fashionable heads; ordering up a few bottles ofwhisky for a party is no harder than it's ever been. Reportedly,Revolutionary Guards chiefRahim Safavi has even warnedmembers of the thuggish basij militia not to "interfere in peo-ple's lives, ask for identification cards or rifle through CDs andcassettes." At the same time, authorities have intimidated intel-lectuals with well-timed arrests, like the mysterious April deten-tion of Prof. RaminJahanbegloo for unspecified crimes. Kadi-var spoke with NEWSWEEK reporters in a mosque because he'dbeen warned he would lose his job ifhe met foreigners in his of-fice at a state-run university.

America needs to decide on its priorities. If stopping the Iran-ian nuclear program is most urgent, then continuing to raise theprospect of toppling the regime- however democratically -and

NEWSWEEK AUGUST 14, 2006

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kurdes en s'attaquant aux popula-tions civiles. Si les troupes irakiennesont effectivement été accrochées parde la guérilla kurde peshmerga, ellessont accusées d'avoir concentré leurpuissance de feu sur les villageskurdes et d'avoir utilisé des armes chi-miques.Exécutions en masseLe parquet tentera également deprouver l'existence de camps d'inter-nement et des exécutions en masse.• Lesprisonniers étaient tués plusieursjours ou même plusieurs semainesaprès que les forces de sécurité eurentatteint leur objectif ., affirme le rap-port de l'observatoire américain desdroits de l'Homme Human RightsWatch.En 1986, Saddam Hussein, dont le ré-gime était fragilisé entre autres par laguerre contre l'Iran, aurait ordonné à« Ali le chimique • de réprimer lesKurdes, dont la région échappait deplus en plus au contrôle de Bagdad.Fragile KurdistanEntre 1987 et 1988, au moins huit of-fensives ont été lancées contre le Kur-distan. Lors de celles-ci certaines ré-gions étaient vidées et des popula-tions déplacées dans des zones inter-

dites où la répression faisait rage.outre l'enjeu de la reconnaissance dugénocide, le procès devrait égalementavoir un fort écho politique. Depuis1991, le Kurdistan jouit d'une autono-mie qui était garantie en partie par lacréation d'une zone d'exclusion aé-rienne imposée par les États-Unis àSaddam.Aujourd'hui, le Kurdistan est une pro-

vince autonome de l'Irak, un paysgouverné par une fragile coalitiond'union nationale, présidé par le Kur-de Jalal Talabani. L'avenir du pays estincertain. Le sort de Kirkouk, ville his-torique pour les Kurdes, mais habitéeégalement par des turcomans, chiiteset sunnites, pose un problème d'au-tant plus épineux que la région recèledu pétrole.

Bombardementssystématiques,

gazages et assautsdes forces irakiennes

L _~_~tr~~~~_~u~d~s_

et ses six co-accusés, dont le généralAli Hassan ai-Majid dit « Ali le chi-mique' ou le « boucher du Kurdistan •seront défendus par une équipe dedouze avocats.Armes chimiquesLa campagne Anfal avait pour objec-tif d'étouffer les velléités nationalistes

Pour les Kurdes qui ont survécu àla campagne de répression An-fal, ce jour marque une victoire,

mais ravive de cruels souvenirs. « J'at-tends impatiemment de le voir de-vant le tribunal afin d'étancher masoif de le voir humilié., dit AbdallahMohammed, qui a perdu deux fils,trois filles, trois frères et trois belles-sœurs dans cette campagne de ré-pression. « Notre vil1age a été trans-formé en une boule de feu et de fu-mée. Nous étions assiégés par lesblindés, sous le feu des hélicoptères.

Les accusés ;

Moins d'un an après l'ouverture de sonprocès pour le massacre de DoujaiI, Sadd amHussein répond, à partir d'aujourd'hui, desaccusations de génocide contre les Kurdes.

Saddam Hussein, passible de lapeine de mort dans un premierprocès en cours, doit répondre,

aujourd'hui, des accusations de géno-cide contre les Kurdes pendant lacampagne Anfal, qui s'est soldée parau moins 100 000 morts. Alors que leverdict du procès du massacre de 148chiites de Doujail est attendu pour le

, 16 octobre,IEtouffer Saddam Hus-~les velléités sein va vivreInationalistes son deuxièmeÎ kurdes procès depuis

la chute de sonrégime en 2003 : il risque la peine demort dans les deux procédures.« Ali le chimique •Le parquet va essayer de prouverqu'en ordonnant la campagne Anfal(<< butin de guerre ., selon une souratedu Coran), Saddam s'est rendu cou-pable d'un génocide. Saddam Hussein

Accusé de génocide contre lesKurdes Saddam revient devant

les juges

z~,~Uo~CIlCIl

I~"

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Deux soldats turcs tués par des rebelles kurdesdans le Sud-Est turc

DIYARBAKIR (Turquie), 15 août 2006 (AFP) - 09h19 - Deux soldats turcs ont été tués mardi dans ~es combats avec,desrebelles kurdes du parti séparatiste des travailleurs du Kurdlstan (PKK) dans le Sud-Est de la TurqUie, a-t-on annonce desource officielle.

Les affrontements ont eu lieu sur les hauteurs de Gabar, dans la province de Sirnak, proche de la frontière a~ec l'Irak, ~souligné un communiqué du gouvernorat de Sirnak reçu à Diyarbakir, principale ville du Sud-Est anatolien peuplemajoritairement de Kurdes,.

Le PKK est considéré comme une organisation terroriste par la Turquie, l'Union européenne et les Etats-Unis.

Au moins 96 militants du PKK et 66 membres des forces de sécurité sont morts dans les violences qui se sont multipliéescette année, selon un comptage de l'AFP.

Le président irakien Talabani prêt à témoignerau procès de Saddam Hussein ..

BAGDAD, 22 août 2006 (AFP) - 12h27 - Le président irakien, le Kurde Jalal Talabani, a affirmé mardi qu'il était prêt à venirtémoigner dans le procès Anfal, où son prédécesseur déchu, Saddam Hussein, comparaît pour répondre d'accusations degénocide au Kurdistan.

M. Talabanl a assuré dans un communiqué qu'il était prêt à venir témoigner, "si on le lui demandait", devant le Haut tribunalpénal irakien qui juge depuis lundi Saddam Hussein et six de ses lieutenants pour leur rôle présumé dans les campagnesAnfal au Kurdistan, où jusqu'à 182.000 personnes auraient été tuées en 1987-1988.

"Ce procès va permettre de raffermir l'unité nationale en Irak et sera l'occasion de démontrer au monde entier que lesrelations entre Kurdes et Arabes sont très bonnes", a-t-il ajouté.

Mardi, le tribunal a commencé à entendre les premiers témoins à charge, qui ont notamment raconté les bombardementschimiques et les destructions de villages dont ils ont été victimes au Kurdistan.

L'accusation entend démontrer qu'il y a eu volonté délibérée de commettre un génocide au Kurdistan, avec "usage à grandeéchelle d'armes chimiques contre la population civile kurde.

La défense veut prouver que les campagnes Anfal s'inscrivent dans une stratégie classique de lutte contre la guérilla, alorsque les rebelles kurdes avaient partie liée avec les forces iraniennes, en pleine guerre Iran-Irak.

Irak: 10 morts dans un double attentatanti-kurde à Kirkouk

KIRKOUK (Irak), 27 août 2006 (AFP) - 17h12 - Deux attentats suicide anti-kurdes ont tué 10 personnes et en ont blessé50 en début de soirée dimanche à Kirkouk (250 km au nord de Bagdad), a annoncé le général de police Burhan Tayeb.

Les deux attentats suicides à la voiture piégée ont eu lieu à quelques secondes d'intervalle, dans le quartier Iskan de Kirkouk,majoritairement kurde.

Ils ont fait 10 morts et 50 blessés, selon le général Tayeb, dont un premier bilan avait fait état de neuf morts.

L'un des attentats visait une demeure liée au souvenir de la famille du président irakien, le Kurde Jalal Talabani. Le seconds'est produit devant la maison du colonel Ahmed Abdallah, un responsable local de la police. Le colonel a été blessé mais l'unde ses fils a été tué.

Plus tôt dans la journée, un attentat suicide à la voiture piégée contre le siège de l'Union patriotique du Kurdistan (UPK), le

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parti de M. Talabani, avait tué un garde kurde et blessé 16 personnes.

Quatr~ policiers ont en outre été abattus à une cinquantaine de kilomètres au sud de Kirkouk dans la journée.

"Cet attentat porte la marque des terroristes du Baas et d'Ansar al-Sunna (groupe ext.rémiste sunnite lié à AI-Qaïda, ndlr), quivoient dans l'UPK un grand danger", a estimé Jalal Joha, un responsable local du parti kurde.

La situation est très instable dans cette région pétrolière, où cohabitent à la fois des Kurdes, des Arabes sunnites, des Arabeschiites, ainsi que des chrétiens et des Turcomans.

Les forces turques saisissent 74 kg d'explosifdans le Sud-Est

ANKARA, 30 août 2006 (AFP) - 08h14 - Les forces de sécurité turques ont annoncé mercredi avoir saisI 74 kg de Semtex,un explosif généralement utilisé par les rebelles kurdes, dans le sud-est du pays en provenance du nord de l'Irak.

Quinze lance-roquettes ont également été saisies lors de l'opération dont la date n'a pas été précisée, selon un communiquédu gouvernorat de Sirnak, province frontalière avec l'Irak.

L'explosif, du C4 (Semtex), a été utilisé dans des attentats commis par le Parti des travailleurs du Kurdlstan (PKK, séparatiste)ou un groupe kurde radical, les Faucons de la liberté du Kurdistan (TAK).

Les TAK ont revendiqué une série d'attentats ces trois derniers jours contre des sites touristiques en Turquie qui ont fait troismorts et une cinquantaine de blessés, dont dix Britanniques.

Les autorités turques assimilent les TAK au PKK, estimant que celuI-ci préférait changer de nom pour des opérations visantdes civils et pouvant à ce titre encourir la réprobation de l'opinion publique internationale.

Le PKK est considéré comme une organisation terroriste par Ankara, les Etats-Unis et l'Union européenne. Plusieurs milliersde ses membres se sont réfugiés dans des camps dans le nord de l'Irak.

Turquie: Paris appelle à la vigilance, n'exclutpas de "nouveaux attentats"

PARIS, 29 août 2006 (AFP) - 10h11 - La France a appelé mardi ses ressortissants voyageant en Turquie à la "vigilance"après la série d'explosions qui ont frappé le pays, soulignant que "de nouveaux attentats ne sont pas à exclure".

"De nouveaux attentats ne sont pas à exclure", indique le site du ministère français des Affaires étrangères, dont la rubriquesur les conseils aux voyageurs a été actualisée mardi.

"II est recommandé d'observer la plus grande vigilance, particulièrement dans les stations balnéaires ainsi qu'à Istanbul, et cI'yéviter rassemblements publics et lieux de forte affluence", ajoute-t-on.

La police turque recherchait mardi trois suspects après l'explosion, qui a fait trois morts, tous turcs, et 20 blessés à Antalya(sud).

Cette nouvelle explosion est intervenue après une première série d'attentats perpétrés dimanche soir dans la stationtouristique de Marmaris (sud-ouest) et à Istanbul (nord-ouest), faisant 27 blessés, dont dix touristes Britanniques.

Aucun ressortissant français n'a été recensé parmi les victimes à ce stade, a-t-on indiqué mardi au ministère des Affairesétrangères.

Sur leur site internet, les Faucons de la liberté du Kurdistan (TAK), affiliés selon les autorités au parti des travailleurs duKurdistan (PKK, interdit), ont affirmé avoir commis les attentats de dimanche en représailles aux mesures de confinementdont fait l'objet le chef du PKK, Abdullah bcalan, qui purge depuis 1999 une peine de prison à vie dans le nord-ouest du pays.

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L'ancien dictateur irakien, son cousin «Ali le Chimique» et cinq coaccuséssont jugés pour l'extermination d'au moins 200000 Kurdes en 1988.

Saddam Hussein en procèspour le «génocide kurde»

gime durerait éternellement:beaucoup de ses ordres étaienttranscrits noir sur blanc et sessubordonnés lui envoyaient dI-rectement des cassettes mon-trant les tortures et les exécu-tions afin de bien montrer queles consignes avaient étéappli-quées à la lettre. Tout cela offreun matériel immense aux en-quêteurs avec des détails trèsprécis et des noms. Il y a là unmoyen d'établir; defaçon trèsméticuleuse et dans tous •••••• leurs rouages, leschafnesde commandement», souligneMohammed Ihsan.«Comment imaginer un jourun Irak démocratique et uneréconciliation si les respon-sables des atrocités commisespendant trois décennies n'ontpas un nom et n'ont pas été pu-nis. Il ne s'agit pas seulementde juger Saddam Hussein,mais tout un système et lesautres responsables de cettemachine de terreur. Aujour- 'd'hu~ beaucoup d'hommes quiont participé à ce système derépression sont non seulementtoujours à même de nuire,mais revendiquent haut etfortleursforfaits», explique le ju-riste.Cibles. Le procès de Saddam

tional ou HumanRights Watch touten œuvrant avec lecomité Indictmentpour un futur pro-cès internationalde Saddam Hus-

sein, alors encore au pouvoir.13 tonnes d'archives. Depuisson retour, il consacre la plusgrande partie de ses activitésde ministre «à enquêter sur lescrimes du régime, car il ny apas assez de magistratsforméspour travailler sur ces sujets».Il est bien convaincu qu'il estpossible de prouver «les res-ponsabilités directesetperson-nelles» de Saddam dans cesatrocités au travers de milliersde témoins directs et des ar-

chives. Il y avait déjà celles,prises en 1991dans les centresde sécurité au Kurdistan, queles peshmergas ont réussi àfaire sortir du pays aprèsl'écrasement de la révolte. De-puis la chute du régime, ily ena beaucoup d'autres, en toutquelque 13 tonnes de docu-ments saisis dans les locauxdes divers services de sécuritéou du parti Baas. «SaddamHussein était très fier de sescrimes et ilpensait que son ré-

[if

Saddam Hussein au premier Jour de son procès. Les atrocités contre les Kurdes feront l'objet

de troIs procès distincts, dont un spécifique pour Halabja, où 5000 personnes furent gazées

de 8000 hommes dans les vil-lages de lavallée de Barzan, lefief de la famille Barzani Oea-ders historiques du mouve-ment national kurde ira-kien, ndlr). Les atrocitéscontre les Kurdes feront l'ob-

«Aucune population d'Irak n'a autantsouffert et n'a eu autant de victimesque les Kurdesavec un demi-millionde morts, dont 350000 disparus.»

Mohammad Ihsan, ministre kurde

Au moment de l'ou-

verture de l'audien-ce, lepays kurde, aunor~ ~e l'Irak, s:estarrete pour cmqminutes de silence.

Beaucoup de familles ont ins-tallé les photos de leurs «mar-tyrs» face au poste de télévi-sion alors que défilaient lesimages du second procès deSaddamHussein. C'estle mo-ment tant attendu. Il y a unpeu moins d'un an, le 19 oc-tobre 2005, l'ex-dictateur de-vait répondre du massacre de148 villageois chiites. Cettefois, il est dans le box avec soncousin Ali Hassan al-Majid,surnommé «Alile Chimique»,pour l'extermination de prèsde 200000 Kurdes en 1988pendant l'opération «al An-fal» (butin de guerre), ainsinomméed~prèsunesouratedu Coran. Au cours de cettecampagne contre les rebelleskurde~accusésdecomplicné

avec l'Iran, furent massive-ment utilisées des armes chi-miques, notamment dans lapetite ville d'Halabja.Gaz moutarde. Déj à inculpésde crimes de guerre et crimescontre l'humanité, Saddam et<<Alile chimique» sont cette jet de trois procès distincts,fois aussi accusés de «génoci- dont un spécifiquement surde», le crime leplus grave, qui Halabja, où 5000 personnesse caractérise par l'intention furent tuées en quelques mi-de détruire entièrement ou nutes par des bombarde-en partie un groupe du seul ments au gaz moutarde.fait de ses croyances ou de ses «Aucune population de rIrakorigines ethniques. Mais le n'a autantsouffertetn 'aeu au-Haut Tribunal pénal irakien, tant de victimes que les Kurdesmis en place en dé- avec un demi-million de morts,cembre 2003 avec l'aide des dont350000disparus», mar-Américains, n'a guère, jus- tèle Mohammad Ihsan,qu'ici, affirmé sa crédibilité. 40 ans, ministre des AffairesL'évidence des crimes est extra-régionales au gouver-pourtant accablante dans ce nement du Kurdistan irakien.dossier. Al Anfal ne fut que Parti tout jeune rejoindre lesl'apogée d'une série de mas- peshmergas Oescombattantssacres, commencés dès 1.979 kurdes) dans la montagne, ilcontre .l~s Kurdes, qUI se s'exila ensuite en Grande-~oursUIYIre~lt en 1?83 ~vec , Bretagne, devint avocat, tra-Iextermmation systematique vailla avec AInnesty Interna-

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THE TIMES WEDNESDAYAUGUST 23 2006

The attack on Batisan began the Anfal campaignwhich left 180,000 dead, say prosecutors

KURDISH vIllagers relived thehorror of a chemical weaponsattack on their hamlet ofBalisan yesterday as survivorstestified at the genocide trial ofSaddam Hussem, the oustedIraqi dictator.

In their hillside cementhome, Haiysha Hussein Has-san, 74, and her grandsonMukhlis, 27,watched on TV astheir neighbours told a Bagh-dad court of the Iraqi armyassault on Balisan and the ad-joining community of SheikhWasan 19 years ago that costMrs Hassan her husband andthree sons.

Mrs Hassan, stooped andgnarled, broke into tears watch-ing the hearing and recalledthe day, April 16, 1987, thatmarked Saddam's first use ofchemical weapons against the

rotten apple or garlic smell. Lotsof citIzens immediately had redeyes and began to vomit. After-wards it was dark," he said.

The second witness, NajlbKhudair Ahmad, confrontedSaddam and his six co-defend-ants in a charged moment thatgave voice to years of suffenngby the Kurds under the col-lapsed regime.

"If we were Iraqis, why didyou bomb us?" asked MrsAhmad, a 41-year-old motherwhose face and eyes bore scarsfrom the gas attack. "Even nowmy throat has problems. Skinfrom all delicate parts of mybody has peeled off. After theattacks I had a baby whose skinalso peeled off and is sick. I alsohad miscarriages," she said.

The defence argued that theregime's 1987-88campaign wasthe correct and legal responseto an insurrection by Kurdishrebel groups during the coun-try's 1980-88 war with Iran.

Sabir al-Douri, Saddam'sf?rmer dir~ctor of military intel-ligence, said that Iranians andKurds were fighting hand inha.!1dagainst the Iraqi military,Mr Hama admitted that Kurd-ish guerrilla fighters - pesh-merga - had visited his villagebefore the bombing.

Along with Saddam, his_cousm Ali Hassan al-Majid-

the notorious Chemical Ali -is charged with genocide, warcnmes and crimes against hu-manity. The remaining defend-ants - senior political and mili-tary figures - have been mdlct-ed only on the last two charges.

Back in Balisan, the court ses-sion gave Mrs Hassan little sol-ace. Her frail body trembledand she kept sobbmg. She re-counted how she abandonedher husband in the villagewhen the warplanes began fir-ing. He was shot in the leg andshe kept running.

Her husband was rescuedfrom the village but the gasattack had left him and herthree sons blind. Iraqi securityservices took them away to ahospital for treatment and theywere never seen again

Even Mrs Hassan has trou-bles with her eyes. "Until now Idon't see well." She brandisheda pack ofpills in aluminium foiland said that 150 people fromBalisan had had problems withtheir eyesight since the attack.

Her grandson recalled hislast memories of his own fathertaki~g him to the nearbySheIkh Mahmoud village forsafety before the attack. "Hesaid that he had to go home towater the onions and then he'dcome back," Mukhlis saId. Hisgrandmother added: "We wereused to the Iraqi Army bomb-ing us, but they had never usedchemical weapons."

Kurds tell of gasattack that beganSaddam 'genocide'The former regime's .defence arguesthat the assault was a legal response toa revolt during war, Ned Parker reports

Kurds. The assâûlfwoufd'pioveto be a preview of the nextye3!'s bloody Anfal campaign,which prosecutors say left180,000 victims dead.

"Why must the Governmenttry him? They should kill himat once," Haiysha cned. "I can'tstay calm I keep thinking ofmysons."

In the valley below her house25 victims of the attack lieburied.

Hundreds of miles away, AliMustafa Hama, her fellow vil-lager, recalled for the Baghdadcourt the spring evening whenbetween eIght and twelve jetsflew over Balisan. They startedfiring on the village and itsneighbour Sheikh Wasan.

The explosions were not veryloud, MI' Hama told the judge."There was green smoke risingfrom the bomb, as if there was a

MARCSEMO

Hussein représente néan-moins sm:ce plan une grandeoccasion manquée. Le tribu-nal spécial siège dans la «zoneverte», quartier bunker aucentre de Bagdad, gardé parles troupes américaines. Lesjuges, comme les témoins àcharge, savent qu'ils sont lescibles de la résistance sunnite.Plusieurs avocats des ex-di-gnitaires baasistes sont tom-bés sous les balles des esca-drons de la mort chiites. Lesaudiences sont souvent annu-lées à cause de Saddam qui re-fuse de reconnaître la légiti-mité de la cour.Les organisations des droitsde l'homme soulignent que leHaut Tribunal pénal irakienne dispose pas de suffisam-ment de juristes expérimen-tés pour assurer un procèsimpartial et conforme auxcritères internationaux. «Cescritiques sur les carences dutribunal sont en bonne partiejustij1éescarnousmanquonsaussi bien dejuges que d'avo-catspour faireface à un tel ty-pe de procès, mais en mêmetemps c'est la première foisdans l'histoire de l'Irak, voiredu monde arabe, qu'un ex-dic-tateur répond de ses crimesdans un procès sérieux», ré-torque Mohammed Ihsan..Peine capitale. Comme beau-coup d'autres juristes, il au-.

.rait préféré que SaddamHus-sein puisse être jugé par untribunal mixte sous l'égidedes Nations unies, avec desjuges irakiens et internatio-naux. Ce projet avait capotéparce que le gouvernementirakien, soutenu par Wa-shington, voulait pouvoirpr:ononcer lapeine de mort. TIespère au moins que les pro-chains procès contre l'anciendictateur iront jusqu'à leurterme, même si la cour pro-nonce la peine capitale en oc-tobre prochain pour la pre-mière affaire. __

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Max Becherer/Polans. for The New York Times

'I won't give you myname,' the defendantsaid, 'because all the

Iraqis know my name.'

dent of the republic of Iraq and com-mander in chief of the heroic Iraqiarmed forces." He referred to thoseforces as holy warriors, a nod to the on-going insurgency.

Amiri entered a plea of not guilty forSaddam. Most of the other defendants,accused of crimes against humanity,pleaded not guilty. Like Saddam, theygenerally sat in silence, sometimes jot-ting noles, sometimes staring at thejudges.

Saddam's chief lawyer, Khalil al-Du-laimi, challenged the legitimacy of thecourt, saying it had been created by anoccupying power. He invoked theG~neva Conventions and said the veryeXIstence of the court violated interna-tionallaw.

Saddam and Majid, the commanderof the north at the time of Anfal, bothface the ~h~rge of genocide for attempt-mg to ehmmate m whole or in part the

Kurds, who make up a fifth of Iraq.Prosecutors say the policy was carriedout through mass murder, the razing ofvillages and the deportation of Kurds.from rural to urban areas.

The scope of Anfal dwarfs that of thefirst case brought against Saddam. Thefirst trial, in which Saddam and sevenothers are charged with killing 148men~~d boys from the Shiite village of Du-JaIl, began last October and is nearly atan end, with a five-judge panel expectedto deliver a verdict in two months.

Some international observers haveraised doubts over the Iraqi tribunal's~bility to handle such a broad case, givenIts performance duririg the Dujail trialLast week, Human Rights Watch issueda statement saying the judges did noth~ve an adequate understanding of in-ternationallaw, and that the abysmal se-curity conditions in Iraq make a fair tri-al impossible. Three defense lawyers inthe Dujail case have been assassinated.

Furthermore, genocide is an ex-tremely difficult charge to prove, legalexperts say.Prosecutors must show thatSaddam and Majid had command re-sponsibility for the campaign and that

they killed their victims because oftheir Kurdish ethnicity.

The Iraqi military's use of chemicalweapons is expected to figure promi-nently in the prosecution's arguments.Between 20 and 25 Kurdish villageswere hit with chemical weapons in1988,said Kamaran Sabir, a Kurdish in-vestigator who helped collect evidencefor the trial. The weapons includedmustard gas and nerve agents, and wereusually dropped from fighter jets.

The New York TImes

tioning before black-robed judges. Sur-vivors of the Anfal campaign organizedrallies in several villages.

Government offices called for fiveminutes of silence for the victims be-fore the trial began.

The session represented the firsttime that Saddam and his aides havestood trial for the mass killings thatwere the most lasting legacy of his ruleand that President George W. Bush hascited as one of several rationales for theAmerican-led invasion ofIraq.

Saddam marched into the wood-railed defendants' pen at 11:45 a.m.wearing a charcoal suit and white shirt,his customary court outfit. His graybeard appeared neatly trimmed and heclutched a Koran in one hand.

Late~ as two prosecutors presentedthe case, he watched with raised eye-brows, an index finger occasionallyperched on his lip. He scribbled on anotepad. He did not smile.

Ali Hassan aI-Majid, perhaps Sad-dam's most feared aide, a man known asChemical Ali for the weapons he is saidto have unleashed, hobbled into courtwith a cane, stooped over in his whiterobe and red checkered head scarf.

At the start, the chief judge, Abdullahal-Amiri, who had served in the courtsunder Saddam's, asked each defendantto state his name, occupation and placeof residence.

"I won't give you my name becauseall the Iraqis know my name," Saddamsaid in a gravelly voice.

The judge raised a small book of reg-ulations to show Saddam. "Do you re-spect this law?"

"You're sitting there in the name ofthe occupation and not the name ofIraq," Saddam said. Eventually, he gavehis name and called himself "the presi-

By Edward Wong

SULAIMANIYA, Iraq: As his trial onthe charge of genocide began Monday,Saddam Hussein insisted he was stillthe president of Iraq and refused toenter a plea on accusations of orderingmassacres, deportations and chemicalattacks to annihilate the country'sKurdish minority.

For most ofthe five-hour session, thedefiant Saddam sat stone-faced in acourtroom in the fortified Green Zoneof Baghdad, listening to prosecutorsgive a detailed account of how he andsix co-defendants embarked on aneight-stage military campaign in 1988to eliminate the Kurds from swaths oftheir mountainous homeland in north-ern Iraq.

Prosecutors said the campaign,called Anfal after a Koranic phrase thatmeans "the spoils of war," killed at least50,000 Kurds and resulted in the de-struction of 2,000 villages. More thanan hour into the session, they presentedgrim photographs of mass graves, in-cluding one with the body of a younggirl, and cited orders from one of Sad-dam's top aides telling military com-manders to rid many villages of "humanor even animal presence."

The efficient and emotional argu-ments by the prosecutors were a markedcontrast to that side's performance atthe start of Saddam's first triallast Oc-tober, when the chief prosecutor tiedhimself up in grand rhetoric and wasforced to stop by the chief judge.

Here in the heart of Iraqi Kurdistan,people sat fixated before televisions incafés, homes and offices, watching asthe former dictator and some of hismost powerful aides underwent ques-

Saddam defies courtas Kurdish trial opensNo plea offered to charge of genocide

Women gathered in a Kurdish village Monday to mark the start of Saddam Hussein's

genocide trial in Baghdad, where Saddam insisted he was still president.

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23 AOÛT 2006

Olivier Roy, spécialiste de l'Iran au CNRS,pense que d'éventuellessanctions de l'ONU ne feraient que renforcer le régime iranien.

«L'Iran s'affirme en grande puissancerégionale»

Laréponserramenneencours~anlliyseLesAméricains continuent à réclamer des sanctions économiques contre l'Iran.

«les acteurs régionaux et les paysvoisins, bien que presque tous aniésde l'Occident, n'hésiteront pas àcontourner les sanctions pour fairede fructueuses affaires.»

satisfait pas aux termes défi-nis».Les Etats-Unis n'ont jamaisexclu une option militaire etl'Iran a évoqué lapossibilité decouper ses exportatIOns debrut. Quatrième producteurmondial de brut avec 4 mil-lions de barils par jour, dontenviron 2,7 millions sont ex-portés, l'Iran pourrait aussibloquer le détroit d'Ormuz,par lequel transite 20% dutrafic pétrolier mondial. Tou-tefois, d'après Catherine Hun-ter, analyste chez Global In-sight, «des sanctions limitées nesont plus aussi impossibles àenvisager qu'avant, même sielles prennent des mois à êtreadoptées. Mais des sanctionsdirectes contre l'investissementénergétique ou le trafic pétro-lier restent improbables». LeConseil de sécurité est tou-jours divisé sur ce point. LaChine etlaRussie s'opposent àdes sanctions, l'Europe étantfavorable àdes sanctions limi-tées etépargnantle pétrole._

AFP

en place. Dans ce cas, en outre, il n'y a pas de consen-sus au sein du Conseil de sécurité des Nations unieset ces éventuelles sanctions ne seront pas appuyéespar de véritables mesures coercitives. Les acteursrégionaux et les pays voisins, bien que presque tousalliés de l'Occident - Dubaï, Afghanistan,Arrnénie,Azerbaidjan, Kurdes, etc. -, n'hésiteront pas à lescontourner pour faire de fructueuses affaires. Desgrandes puissances économiques comme le Japon,

mais aussi la Chine, ont d'oreset déjà annoncé leur refus detout embargo sur les exporta-tions énergétiques ira-niennes. Téhéran pourradonc continuer àvendre sonpétrole, et ce à un prh: plus

élevé, justement grâce aux sanctions. En mêmetemps, les dirigeants iraniens renforceront leurpouvoir en gérant la redistribution des revenus oc-cultes de la confrebande.Que peutfme, alors, la communautéinternationale?S'ilsveulent être cohérents, les Occidentaux doiventtrouver une stratégie globale pour le Moyen -Orient.Jusqu'ici, ils gèrent ces différents COnflItSrégionauxséparément, comme s'us étaient cloisonnés. Ou bienau nom devisions Idéologiques de lutte contre le ter-rorisme ou l'islamo-fascisme ..-

Recueilli par MARC SEMO

Conseil de sécurité de sus-pendre son enrichissementavant le 31 août. Le procédépermet d'obtenir le combus-tible d'uranium faiblement en-richi pour une centrale nu-cléaire civile.Mais ilsuffit de lepoursuivre àun tauxplus élevépour obtenir la matière pre-mière d'une bombe atomique.L'offre des cinq membres per-manents du Conseil de sécuri-té et de l'Allemagne vise à

convaincre les Ira-niensdesbénéficesd'une suspension,en échange d'unecoopérationécono-mique et nucléaire.

Menaces. «Si les gens se mo-quentdu Conseil de sécurité, ilfaut que cela ait des consé-quences», a averti Bush. Unemenace réitérée hier par l'am-bassadeur américain à l'ONU,John Bolton, qui a prOfilS queles Etats-Unis présenteraientrapidement au Conseil unprojet de résolution prévoyantdes sanctions économiquescontre l'Iran si sa réponse «ne

«Des sanctions directes contrel'investissement énergétique ou letrafic pétrolier restent improbables.»

Catherine Hunter, analyste

d'accéder à une usine souter-raine en construction sur lesite d'enrichissement de Na-tanz, au centre du pays.Si,comme ilest probable, laré-ponse iranienne n'est pasconciliante, Téhéran s'exposeà des sanctions économiques.Le président George W.Busharéclamé lundi des sanctions ra-pides contre l'Iran s'il ne sepliait pas à la demande du

haut représentant de l'Unioneuropéenne pour la politiqueextérieure.Signe négatif. Le Guide suprê-me, l'ayatollah Ali Khamenei,avait été inflexible en annon-çantque son pays poursuivraitson programme nucléaire«avecforce». Autre signe «né-gatif»: Téhéran a empêché, leweek-end dernier, des inspec-teurs de l'Agence internatio-nale de l'énergie atomique

d'Israël. Depuis, il a accumulé les provocations, dontla dernière en date est l'exposition de caricatures surl'Holocauste, mais chaque fois il a pu se dire ga-gnant. Pour autant, il ne faut pas voir Ahmadinejadcomme un fou avecle doigt sur le bouton nucléaire.Il s'inscrit dans la continuité de la Révolution isla-mique, non pas bien sûr dans la tendance «thermi-dorienne», mais dans celle d'une révolution après larévolution. Ses choix stratégiques ne sont d'ailleurspas en totale contradictionavec ceux de ses prédéces-seurs.L'Iran estime que sa capaciténucléaire lui permettra de s'af-firmer comme la grande puis-sance régionale. Pour Ahma-dinejad comme pour d'autres anciens combattantsde la guerre Iran-Irak, prendre la tête du front du re-fus contre Israël a un goût de revanche. Ce discourspanislarniste joue sur la corde de l'anti-impériahsme,du nationalisme arabe etde l'antisionisme. On l'avuaussi lors de la crise libanaise. Cela permet àTéhérande délégitimerencore un peu plus les régimes arabesen place: le leader du Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah,estvu aujourd'hui dans larue arabe comme un nou-veau Nasser.Quels effets auront d'éventuelles sanctionsinternationales?Elles renforcent toujours les régimes autoritaires

L'Iran ménage le suspense.Hier, le négociateur enchef du nucléaire iranien,Ali Larijani, a invité les

grandes puissances à «négo-cier» dès aujourd'hui s}lf leuroffrevisantàconvaincre l'Irande suspendre l'enrichisse-ment d'uranium, sans indi-quer si Téhéran entendait seplier à cette demande. L'Irandevait répondre àcette propo-sition des Européens, datantdu 6 juin, avant le 22 août. Laréponse a été formellementremise en mains propres, peuaprès 16heures locales, par AliLarijani aux représentants di-plomatiques du groupe 5 + 1(Chine, Etats-Unis, France,Grande-Bretagne, Russie etAllemagne). Rien n'a filtré surson contenu, mais le vice-pré-sident de l'Organisation ira-nienne de l'énergie atomique,Mohammad Saidl, avait an-noncé dès lundi que «la sus-pension est désormais impos-sible». Cette réponse nécessiteune «analyse détaillée etpru-dente», a estimé JavierSolana,

Directeur au CNRS, Olivier Roy, spécialistede l'Asie centrale et de l'Iran, a notammentpublié l'Islam mondialisé (Seuil). Il ex-plique àLibération comment l'Iran s'affir-me au Moyen- Orient comme une grandepuissance régionale àpotentialité nucléai-

re. Et comment Téhéran met en avant des conflitssecondaires (Israël-Palestine, Israël-Hezbollah)pour éviter tout choc frontal.Pourquoi l'Iran refuse-t-il de suspendre sonprogranune nucléaire?Sur ce plan, la politique iranienne est une constante:Téhéran veut pouvoir continuer l'enrichissement del'uranium, officiellement pour un programme civil,mais en même temps sans s'interdire l'option mili-taire. C'est aussi pour cela que l'Iran fait en sorte deconquérir la position la plus forte possible sur l'échi-quier régional, d'où son rôle dans la dernière crise auLiban. Etrangement, les Occidentaux n'ont rien vuvenir: depuis le début, ils gèrentla question du nu-cléaireiranien de façon étroitemellt bilatérale en pro-posant àTéhéran unpackage, un programme gradueld'incitations et de pressions, pour l'inciter à céder. Enrevanche, la stratégie iranienne - surtout depuis l'ar-nvée au pouvoir d'Ahmadinejad - est de régionaliserce bras de fer afin d'obliger les Occidentaux àun choixdrastique: ou une crise générale, ou laisser l'Iranpoursuivre l'enrichissement.Les Iraniens ontle sentiment que cette stratégie s'estrévélée payante. Au Liban, ilssont sortis renforcés d'unconflit auquel ils n'ont pas par-ticipé directement. Certes, ilsfinancent, arment et entraî-nent le Hezbollah, mais ils ontsu rester au second plan. De lamême façon, sans jamais appa-raître sur le devant de la scène,ils tirent avantage des autresconflits de la région, en Afgha-nistan comme en Irak. Ils sontlà d'ailleurs encore plus dis-crets, sachant que le tempsjoue pour eux.LepouvorriraWenes~iluni sur le dossiernucléaire?Il y a nécessairement des dé-bats et des divergences. Je necrois pas, néanmoins, que lesdivergences soient tellesqu'elles puissent être instru-mentalisées par une politiquede pressions. Le pragmatiqueRafsandjani (l'ex-président,considéré comme réformiste,ndlr) voulait gagner du tempsen préserttant l'han commeun élément essentiel pour lastabilité ré'gionale. MahmoudAhmadin'èjad pense aucontraire que le passage enforce est la meilleure des solu-tions. Il y aurait eu des ten-sions au sein du pouvoir à Té-héran quand il a dénoncé la

1 première fois «l'illégitimité»

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L'Iran au centre du jeu moyen-oriental 23 aoOt 2006

INTERNATIONAL

CHRONIQUEDANIEL VERNET

A printemps, quelques anciens minis-tres des affaires étrangères occiden-taux, dont l'Américaine MadeleineAlbright, le Français Hubert Védrinet l'Allemand Joschka Fischer, avaient

suggéré « un grand marchandage» entre l'Iran etles Etats-Unis. Autrement dit, une vaste négocia-tion entre ces deux pays. Il s'agissait, pour lesauteurs du texte, de prendre en compte le besoinde reconnaissance de l'Iran etson rôle dans la sécurité de larégion, tout en le dissuadant depoursuivre la mise au point d'unarmement nucléaire. Il s'agissaitaussi d'éviter aux Etats-Unis dese trouver devant le dilemme, dévastateur pourles relations transatlantiques, bombarder l'Iranou accepter la bombe iranienne.

Le président Bush a rejeté cette suggestion, quil'aurait amené à délivrer un satisfecit au régimedes mollahs. Tout juste a-t-il admis que les Etats-Unis participent à un éventuel dialogue avecl'Iran si celui-ci renonce à enrichir l'uranium, pre-mière étape vers la fabrication d'une bombe.

Les cinq membres permanents du Conseil desécurité (Chine, Etats-Unis, France, Royaume-Uni et Russie), plus l'Allemagne, ont fait cette pro-position à Téhéran en juin. Les Iraniens ont pro-mis une réponse pour le mardi 22 août. Le plus

probable est qu'ils n'accepteront ni ne rejetterontlaproposition. Ils offritont de négocier ...les condi-tions de la négociation.

Car après la guerre entre Israël et le Hezbollah,ils s'estiment plus que jamais en position de force.LesAméricains ne voulaient pas leur reconnaîtreune place éminente dans la sécurité régionale?Ils ont montré qu'ils avaient une capacité de désta-bilisation que n'entamaient ni les menaces améri-

caines à leur endroit ni l'offensi-ve militaire israélienne contreleurs protégés du Hezbollah.Donc que leur concours étaitindispensable à la définition du« nouveau Moyen-Orient ».

Quand le ministre français des affaires étrangè-res, Philippe Douste-Blazy, a parlé en pleineguerre du Liban du « rôlestabilisateur» de l'Iran,iln'a fait que constater, maladroitement, cette évi-dence.

Les Occidentaux ne peuvent ignorer le régimede Téhéran ni en Irak, où les chiites iraniensconseillent leurs coreligionnaires, ni en Mghanis-tan, où l'aide de l'Iran pourrait être utile face auregain d'activité des talibans, ni dans le conflitisraélo-palestinien, où le cessez-le-feu dépend enpartie de la coopération du Hezbollah, ni mêmedans l'ensemble du monde musulman, où leprési-dent iranien Ahmadinejad, l'homme qui veut

détruire Israël et tient tête aux Américains, est lapersonnalité la plus populaire, en dépit de l'hosti-lité traditionnelle entre les Arabes et les Perses.

Dans l'immédi::tt,Paris, qui a été très actif dansl'affaire du nucléaire iranien, se tourne vers Téhé-ran afin d'obtenir des assurances pour la séeuritédes soldats français de la Finul, de même qu'ilavait sondé l'Iran, l'année dernière, sur l'attitudedu Hezbollah dans les élections libanaises.

Au moins depuis les attentats terroristes enFrance, en 1986, alors qu'il était premier minis-tre,Jacques Chirac nourrit une profonde aversionvis-à-vis du chiisme, qu'il tient pour une religionde forcenés. Mais il a justement passé outre sespréventions pour des raisons politiques, alorsqu'il se refuse à renouer le dialogue avec la Syriedepuis que le président Bachar Al-Assad lui a per-sonnellement manqué.

Que fera l'Iran de sa position stratégique?Cherchera-t-il à s'ériger en interlocuteur en accep-tant les conditions posées à son programmenucléaire ou en jouant de son pouvoir de nuisan-ce?

Question corollaire pour les Occidentaux : encas de refus iranien d'arrêter l'enrichissement del'uranium, imposeront-ils d'abord des sanctionsou montreront-ils leur faiblesse en se lançantsans préalable dans le dialogue global que recher-che Téhéran? •

Bombs and gun battles kill 57 in IraqBy Paul von Zielbauer

BAGHDAD: A suicide car bomber at-tacked Iraq's largest newspaper Sunday,detonating his vehicle inside its forti-fied compound in downtown Baghdadand killing 2 people and wounding 20others, the paper's executive editor andgovernment officials said.

The bombing was part of a violentday across Iraq in which explosions andgun battles killed at least 57 people, in-cluding an American soldier.

In Baghdad, a bomb planted inside acommuter bus blew up near the pedes-trian entrance to a central hotel, killing9 people and wounding 20 others, and aconvoy ferrying a deputy defense min-ister came under heavy gunfire thatwounded two bodyguards, two govern-ment officials said.

The bombing Sunday of the office ofAl Sabah, a newspaper financed theShiite-led Iraqi government, also de-stroyed more than a dozen vehicles andcollapsed a quarter of the buildingwhere journalists and printing pressoperators work, said the executive edit-or, Falah al-Mishaal.

The attack occurred at 8:30 a.m. localtime, after guards carrying automaticassault rifles grew suspicious of the ve-hicle after it had already been cleared toenter the newspaper's parking lot, Mis-haal said during an interview. Before

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the bomber could be shot, he blew uphis vehicle, sending at least two parked

-cars through the building's wall.In a statement, Iraq's prime minister,

Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, "strongly de-nounced" the attack on Al Sabah, whichhe called "a pioneering media organiza-tion confronting terror, serving thetruth and consolidating unity and na-tional coherence."

Also Sunday, an Iraqi government of-ficial said the prison at Abu Ghraib,which became notorious for the abuseof Iraqi inmates by American soldiers,had been emptied of inmates and wasnow under the control of the IraqiJustice Ministry.

Saad Sultan, the supervisor of deten-tion facilities in the government's Hu-man Rights Ministry, said during an in-terview Sunday that more than 3,000prisoners in American custody weretransferred to a detention facility atCamp Cropper, an American militarybase near Baghdad International Air-port, on Aug. IS.

Elsewhere in Iraq on Sunday, ilpeopledied in sectarian violence in and aroundBaquba, a city 48 kilometers, or 30 miles,northeast of Baghdad where Sunni andShiite Arabs have engaged in a long-standing cycle of retributive attacks.

A roadside bomb in Khalis, a townnorth of the city, killed 6 people andwounded IS others, a Baquba police

spokesman said. Two truck drivers andthree other people were also killed bygunfire in the city's western suburbs hesaid. '

In a market in Basra, a bomb attachedto a motorcycle killed four people andwounded ISothers.

Near the northern oil city of Kirkuk,on the border ofthe autonomous Kurd-ish region, four traffic policemen werekilled in an roadside ambush as theytraveled south toward Tikrit, CaptainFiras Mahmoud of the Kirkuk policesaid.

Also in Kirkuk on Sunday, a suicidebomber driving a truck full of explo-sives stormed into a building housingthe offices of the main Kurdish politicalparty, killing two security people andwounding 16 others, Major KamilShakhwan of the Kirkuk police said.

Late Sunday evening in Kirkuk, a sui-cide bomb attack killed nine people, theKirkuk police said.

An American soldier was killed Sun-day afternoon by small-arms fire inBaghdad, the military said. It also saidanother American soldier was killedSaturday by a roadside bomb.

The New York TImes

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Ozeti

Letourisme visé par les séparatistes kurdesEn Turquie, une série d'attentats a fait trois morts et une cinquantaine de blessés.

'-- -,

Une explosion a fait aumoins trois morts et unevingtaine deblessés hierdans la station touris-

tique d'Antalya (sud-ouest dela Turquie). La veille, des at-tentats à la bombe avaientfrappé Marmaris, autre locali-té touristique, faisant unevingtaine deblessés. Ilsont étérevendiqués par les Fauconspour la liberté du Kurdistan(TAK), petit groupe rebellekurde qui avait annoncé, com-me l'an dernier, une campagnede bombes contre le secteurtouristique turc, appelant lesétrangers à s'abstenir de venirdans le pays.Les TAKseraient, selon les au-torités, une émanation duPKK, (parti des travailleurs duKurdistan, indépendantiste)d'Abdullah Ocalan, arrêté en1999et condamné àla prison àvie. Ce mouvement est égale-mentconsidérécommeterro-riste par l'Vnion européenneetlesEtats-Unis.En juillet 2005, cinq per-sonnes, dont une adolescenteirlandaise et une Britannique,avaient perdu lavie dans l'ex-plosion d'une bombe dans la

station balnéaire de Kusadasi(ouest).AAntalya, l'explosiona eu lieu hier après-midi dansun café-restaurant en faced'un souk. La veille, troisbombes explosant quasi si-multanément avaient fait21 blessés, dont 10 Britan-niques. Dimanche en fin dejournée, à Istanbul, l'explo-sion d'un colis piégé dans lapartie européenne de la pre-mière ville du pays avait fait6blessés.Durcissement. Ces attentats,réalisés avec un type d'explosifsouvent utilisé par les sépara-tistes kurdes, reflètent unnouveau durcissement de larébellion kurde. Depuis le dé-but de l'été, les accrochagessont devenus quasi quotidiensdans le Sud-Est anatolien àmajorité kurde, et, depuis ledébut de l'année, ont coûté lavie à une centaine de combat-tants du PKK ainsi qu'à66 gendarmes et soldats.L'aviation turque abombardéàla fin de la semaine dernièredes bases du PKK en Irak duNord. Au moins 5000 com-battants de la rébellion kurderetranchés dans ces mon-

tagnes ont repris leurs opéra-tions dans leterritoire turc de-puis l'automne et la fin du ces-sez-le-feu unilatéral proclamépar Abdullah Ocalan après sonarrestationenl99~Lancéeen1984,la «sale guerre» entre lesrebelles kurdes du PKK et lesforces de l'ordre a fait plus de37000 morts. Même restant àun niveau de faible intensité,ce conflit risque de compli-quer la marche turque versrUE.«La question kurde constituel'obstacle majeur dans lepro-cessus de démocratisation.C'estcequi bloque lapleine mi-se en œuvre des réformes etcequipourraitservirde prétexte àune reprise en main autoritai-re», s'inquiète Baskin Oran,professeur de sciences poli-tiques à Ankara Quelque15millions de Kurdes viventen Turquie sur une populationde 71 millions d'habitants.Sous lapression de Bruxelles,des réformes ont légalisé lesdroits culturels des minorités,dont l'emploi de laIangue kur-de dans les médias. Ces chan-gements sont jugés insuffi-sants par une partie de la

population kurde, notam-ment dans le sud-est du pays.En avril dernier, des violentesémeutes avaient éclaté àDiyarbakir, et les manifes-tants, dont de nombreux ado-lescents, criaient des slogansdemandant la libération d'O-calan.Main de fer. Le leader du PKKcontinue du fond de sa prisonà diriger d'une main de fer cequi reste de son organisation.En montrant son pouvoir denuisance, ilespère s'imposercomme l'incontournable in-terlocuteur de toute solutionde la question kurde en Tur-quie, bien que l'Etat refusetoute négociation avec les«terroristes». Il préfère misersur la politique du pire. Enjuin, les députés ont adoptéune nouvelle loi élargissantl'éventail des crimes suscep-tibles d'être qualifiés d'actesterroristes et introduisantdes restrictions supplémen-taires à l'activité des médias.Un texte qui revient en arriè-re sur bon nombre des ré-formes des dernières an-nées._

MARC SE MO

Threat to tourists as blastshit Turkish resort townsBy David O'Byme in Istanbul~~~..a~~.ncies . . .

A bomb blast .killed threeTurks and IllJured dozensmore people, mcludmg for-eign tOUrIsts, in Turkey'ssouth-western resort town ofAntalya yesterday, the fIfthsuch terror attack in lessthan 24 hours

On Sunday, one bombexploded m Istanbul whIlethree III Marmaris, anotherresort town m the country'ssouth-west, injured 22 peo-ple, Illcludlllg Britons andTurks

The Kurdlstan FreedomFalcons, seen as a front forthe Kurmstan Workers party(PKK), claImed responsibil-Ity for Sunday's attacks.

It warned that "Turkey ISnot a safe country, touristsshould not come to Turkey"There was no ImmediateclaIm of responsibIlIty for

the Antalya attack. Since1984 the PKK has waged acampaIgn of vIOlence aImedat establIshmg a separateKurdIsh state m the coun-try's predommantly KurdIshsouth-east

It declared a ceasefire m1999followmg the arrest andtrial of its leader, AbdullahOcalan, now in Jail in west-ern Turkey But smce 2004,even as a new governmentloosened polItIcal restrIC-tIons on Kurds, attacks haveresumed against the mIlItarym the south-east and CIVIl-Ians in the west

Smce the US invasion ofIraq m 2003,TurkIsh offICiaIshave warned that the PKK,whIch has camps m theKurdlsh-dommated north ofIraq, have been able toobtam more sophIsticatedweapons and explOSIves

A spokesman for the Turk-Ish government saId Ankara

was III constant dIaloguewIth the Iraqi authonties,US forces m Iraq and othercountnes' mtellIgence serv-Ices "But we are Just notgetting the concrete resultsthat we need," he told theFT

The bombings appeared toconflflll fears that the PKKwould increasmgly targettOurIStresorts, in an attemptto damage the economy

One of the bombs m Mar-mans had been left m a bagunder the seat of a mllllbustravellmg a route popularwIth tOUrIsts, whIle theother two had been left mlItter bins m the town cen-tre, crowded wIth holIday-makers on theIr way to res-taurants and bars

Last year foreIgn tounstscontnbuted $139bn (€11.5bn,£74bn) to the economy, upfrom $12Ibn m 2004 ArrIV-als for the fIrst seven

months of this year weredown 64 per cent to 1O.99m

The tounst mdustry, how-ever, ISreluctant to attnbutethe drop m arrIvaIs to terrormcidents alone

"There ISa comblllabon offactors at work here," saIdNedret Koruyan, secretary-general of the Turkish Tour-Ism Investors AssocIationShe belIeves the hIgh valueof the lIra has left TurkIshholIdays lookmg overpricedIII comparIson with rIvalmarkets that have been mar-ketmg themselves moreaggressIvely, and pomts tothe outbreak of aVIan influ-enza m Turkey m January -the bme when most tounstsbook theIr holIdays.

"These attacks are a factorcertamly, but they are notthe whole story - lots ofplaces have suffe,red terrorattacks, even London," sheSaId

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Militants warn TurkeyKurdish group threatens more violenceFrom news reports

ANKARA: An extremist Kurdish mili-tant group warned Tuesday that itwould turn "Turkey into hell" andurged tourists to avoid travel to thecountry.

The group, the Kurdistan FreedomFalcons, said in a statement on its Website that it had bombed a busy shoppingarea in the coastal resort of Antalya onMonday, killing three people andwounding dozens, including Europeanand Middle Eastern tourists.

The blast followed by one day fourbombs on the Mediterranean(resort ofMarmaris and in Istanbul that wounded27people.

the police have declined to commentabout the group.

The warnings and the five attacks arepart ofwhat appears to be a trend in theKurdish guerrilla war against the Turk-ish state: bombings against "soft tar-gets" like tourist sites and Istanbulneighborhoods, in addition to attacksagainst Turkish troops and the police inthe overwhelmingly Kurdish southeast.

The past few months have seen asurge in violent attacks in the southeast,leaving dozens of soldiers and guerril-las dead. That has led to a tougher Turk-ish crackdown in the region, the mass-ing of Turkish tanks and artillery along

the Iraqi border, and threats to attackthe main guerrilla bases in northernIraq.

The bombings also came as Turkey isincreasingly pressuring Washington totake measures against the guerrillas innorthern Iraq, with Ankara threateningto take action itself.

On Tuesday, the United States ap-pointed a former air force general,Joseph Ralston, as a special envoy forcountering the Kurdistan WorkersParty, or PKK.

"General Ralston will have responsi-bility for coordinating U.S. engagementwith the government of Turkey and thegovernment ofIraq to eliminate the ter-rorist threat of the PKK and other ter-rorist groups operating in northern Iraqand across the Turkey-Iraq border,"said Sean McCormack, a State Depart-ment spokesman. (AP, Reuters)

DELPHINE NERBOLLIER

Depuissa formation,le TAK inciteles touristesétrangersà éviterla Turquie,pourfragiliserl'industrieflorissantedu tourismeturc.

Des attentats dans des stations touristiques turqueset à Istamboul ont fait plusieurs morts et de nombreux blessés

Les rebelles kurdes pointésdu doigt pour trois attentatsISTAMBOUL sur la rive européenne. L'engin dissimulée sous le siège d'un auto-De notre correspondante était placé près d'un bâtiment offi- car dans la station balnéaire de

ciel. Enfin, une explosion a fait hier Kusadasi (ouest). Les TAKavaienten fin de journée plusieurs mort et revendiqué cet attentat et promisune vingtaine de blessés dans la de continuer de s'en prendre austation balnéaire d'Antalya. tourisme turc. Et le 25 juin der-

Malgré l'absence de revendica- nier les Faucons ont revendiquétion et de commentaires de la part l'attentat dans la station balnéairede la police, de nombreux éléments de Manavgat, attentat qui a coûtéorientaient hier vers la piste kurde. la vie à quatre personnes dont trois

Les explosifs utili- touristes étrangers.sés tout d'abord, du Il y a quinze jours, Ankara aplastique A-4, tra- également rejeté la main tendueditionnellement par le chef séparatiste kurde, Ab-employé par les dullah Ocalan. Depuis sa prisonmembres du Parti d'Imrali, au large d'Istamboul, ildes travailleurs du a évoqué l'idée d'un cessez-le-feuKurdistan (PKK). si Ankara affichait une « approcheLes cibles, ensuite, sincère,) pour résoudre la questionrappellent celles kurde, demandant notamment unvisées à plusieurs accès à la langue kurde dans lesreprises par l'une écoles. Ankara, qui refuse toutedes branches dl! légitimité à Abdullah Ocalan etPKK, les Faucons au PKK, a ensuite rejeté une autrede la liberté du proposition de cessez-le-feu, à

Kurdistan (TAK). Depuis sa for- compter du 1er septembre, lancéemation il y a deux ans, ce groupe la semaine dernière par des mem-incite les touristes étrangers à évi- bres de l'organisation séparatisteter la Turquie, dans le but affiché mstallés en Irak.de fragiliser l'industrIe florissante Les États-Unis, quant à eux,du tourisme turc qui devrait réali- viennent de faire un geste en fa-ser 20 milliards de dollars (17 mil- veur des Turcs en nommant unliards d'euros) de recettes en 2006. « envoyé spécial» qui sera chargéEn juillet 2005, cinq personnes, de coordonner la lutte contre ledont une adolescente irlandaise et PKK, entre Washington, Ankaraune Britannique, avaient perdu la et Bagdad.vie dans l'explosion d'une bombe

M armaris (au sud-ouestdu pays) est l'une desstations balnéaires tur-ques les plus appréciées

des touristes britanniques et scan-dinaves. Connue pour ses boîtes denuit et ses restaurants, cette citéportuaire de la côte égéenne aété la cible, hier, de trois atten-tats en l'espace d'une heure. Ilétait minuit lorsqu'un premiercolis piégé explosait dans unminibus qui s'engageait dansl'une des rues les plus animéesde la ville. 21 personnes ontété blessées, dont 10 Britanni-ques. 45 minutes plus tard, deuxautres déflagrations ébranlaientl'une des rues du port, sans fairecette fois de victimes. Mais desmouvements de panique ontsuivi les déflagrations, surve-nues au moment où des centainesde personnes déambulaient dansles rues de la petite ville. Les me-sures de sécurité ont été renforcéeset les gendarmes ont instauré despoints de contrôle aux entrées etsorties de Marmaris. Un peu plustôt dans la soirée, six Turcs, dontun enfant de neuf ans, ont égale-ment été blessés dans l'explosiond'une bombe déposée dans lequartier de Bagcilar à Istamboul,

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

Ankara annonce sa participationà la Finul, déployée au Liban sud

TURQUIE UN GROUPE ARMÉ KURDE VISE LES SITES TOURISTIQUES

Le président turc,Ahmet Necdet

Sezer, membre duparti d'oppositionkémaliste, s'estprononcé contrele déploiement

Malgré l'opposition d'unegrande partie de la classepolitique et de l'opinion turques,le gouvernement Erdogan adécidé d'envoyer « quelquescentaines » de soldats au LibanISTANBUL

CORRESPONDANCE

La Turquie avait été l'un des premierspays à se déclarer prêt à participer àune force internationale déployée

dans le Liban sud. Mais sa décision auratardé à se dessiner. A l'issue d'un conseildes ministres qui a duré plus de cinq heu-res, lundi 28 août, le gouvernement deRecep Tayyip Erdogan a finalement annon-cé qu'il allait apporter sa contribution à laForce intérimaire des Nations unies auLiban (Finul).

« Les soldat;s turcs iront au Liban pourprotéger la paix. La Turquie ne peut pas res-ter un simple spectateur, à l'écart des événe-ments qui se déroulent au Proche-Orient», ajustifié Cemil Cicek, le ministre de la justiceet porte-parole du gouvernement. Aucuneprécision n'a pour l'instant été donnée surle nombre de casques bleus turcs quiseront engagés au Liban. Mais la presseparle de 600 à 1 200 soldats.

Le porte-parole du ministère des affai-res étrangères, Namik Tan, évoque «auplus, quelques centaines ». La décision doit

être approuvée par le Parlement turc qui seréunira cette semaine ou le 19 septembre.Un vote qui devrait être sans surprise, leParti de la JUStIce et du développement(AKP) disposant de la majorité absolue.

Depuis quelques jours, les Etats-Unis,Israël et le Liban ont manifesté leur désirde voir des troupes turques prendre part àla Finul. Samedi, le porte-parole du minis-tère israélien des affaires étrangères a répé-té: «Si la Turquie décidait d'envoyer uncontingent, nous accueillerionscela favorablement. » Pays laï-que, la Turquie estun allié stra-tégique dans la région et l'Etatjuif souhaite qu'elle garnissele « contingent musulman».

Pour le moment, parmi lespays musulmans, l'Indonésie,le Bangladesh et la Malaisieont offert leurs services, maisaucun de ces pays ne recon-naît explicitement Israël. Deson côté, le premier ministrelibanais, Fouad Siniora, a déclaré à sonhomologue turc que « des troupes turquessont cruciales pour le Liban ».« Nous avonstoute confiance en la Turquie »;a-t-il ajouté.

Cette décision impopulaire est assuméepar M. Tayyip Erdogan qui souhaite fairede son pays un acteur diplomatique-clédans la région. Mais la population et la pres-se y sont majoritairement opposées, crai-gnant que les soldats turcs ne se retrouventobligés de désarmer le Hezbollah. « Nous

ne voulons pas prendre part à une mission dedésarmement», a assuré N amik Tan.

La classe politique aussi est contre, endehors de l'AKP. Le président de la Républi-que, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, membre duCHP, le parti d'opposition kémaliste, s'estprononcé contre le déploiement, au coursde la dernière réunion du Conseil nationalde sécurité (MGK), prétextant que la Tur-quie doit d'abord s'occuper de ses propresproblèmes.

A l'extrême droite, le lea-der du Parti d'action nationa-liste (MHP), Devlet Bahçeli,a accusé le gouvernement devouloir « entraîner la Turquiedans un jeu dangereux. Plutôtqu'au Liban, il ferait mieuxd'envoyer des troupes dans lenord de l'Irak pour déloger lesterroristes du PKK [Parti destravailleurs du Kurdistan] ».

L'armée ne montre pas ungrand enthousiasme à l'idée

de participer à la Finul. Le nouveau chefd'état-major, le général Yasar Büyükanit,qui a pris ses fonctions lundi, a estimé,dans un discours prononcé devant l'état-major, que « la Turquie n'a jamais été expo-sée à autant de menaces extén'eures qu'auj-ourd'hui ».Une façon de rappeler sa priori-té : déloger les séparatistes du PKK de leurrefuge, dans les montagnes du Kurdistanirakien .•

GUILLAUME PERRIER

Des attentats frappent des stations balnéairesISTANBUL

CORRESPONDANCEHier après-midi, à Antalya, la principaledestination touristique du pays, une explo-sion a fait au moins trois morts etuneving-taine de blessés, au lendemain d'une pre-mière vague d'attentats dans le pays. Unincendie s'est ensuite déclaré et des vacan-ciers ont été pris de panique.

Le centre-ville d'Antalya était alors noirde monde et la déflagration s'est produiteà proximité d'un centre commercial,«devant un immeuble municipal », selonle chef de la police locale, Akif Aktug.L'identité des victimes n'a pas été révéléemais, selon certaines sources, des touristesétrangers figureraient parmi les blessés.

Déjà, dans la nuit de dimanche à lundi,un premier engin explosif avait visé unquartier populaire de la partie européen-ne d'Istanbul, faisant six blessés légers. Ettrois autres bombes, dans le petit port deMarmaris, situé sur la côte de la mer Egée,avaient blessé 21 personnes, dont 10 Bri-

tanniques. La plus destructrice était dissi-mulée dans un minibus qui transportaitdes touristes.

Cette série d'attaques a été revendiquée,lundi soir, par les Faucons de la liberté duKurdistan (TAK), un groupe clandestinprésumé. proche des' séparatistes du Partides travailleurs du Kurdistan (PKK). Et,selon l'agence officielle Anatolie, un mem-bre de ce groupe a été arrêté lundi alorsqu'il s'apprêtait à commettre un attentat àIzmir.

Sur leur site Internet, les TAK affirmentavoir agi « en représailles aux mesures d'iso-lement dont souffre Abdullah Ocalan [chefdu PKK] », qui purge une peine de prisonà vie sur l'île d'Irnrali. « La Turquie n'estpas un pays sûr, ont-ils ironisé. Les touristesne devraient pas [y] venir. »

En avril, les Faucons kurdes avaientannoncé leur intention de s'en prendreaux infrastructures touristiques turques,passant à l'action quelques semaines plustard en tuant quatre vacanciers, dont trois

étrangers, sur le site des cascades de Mana-vgat, près d'Antalya. L'été 2005, ils avaientvisé la station balnéaire de Kusadasi, etrevendiqué une explosion dans un mini-bus qui avait fait quatre morts.

Les TAK, qui ont reconnu avoir commisau moins une dizaine d'attentats à la bom-be depuis le début de l'année, sont devenusla bête noire de la police turque. Ils ont affir-mé avoir déclenché les feux: de forêt quiravagent actuellement le sud et l'ouest dela Turquie, menaçant des sites très fréquen-tés. Plus de 4 000 hectares ont été détruits.

Cette vague de violence intervient quel-ques jours après une proposition de trêvede la part du PKK. Son porte-parole,Murat Kalkiyan, réfugié dans les monta-gnes de Kandil, au Kurdistan irakien, aappelé Ankara à s'inspirer de l'Irlande duNord et demandé une amnistie pour lesrebelles séparatistes. « La Turquie ne discu-tera jamais avec le PKK », a répondu ledéputé (AKP) Faruk Celik .•

G.PE.

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

Turkish W'arplanes bomb PKKbases inside Iraqi Kurdistan

.@e KurdishGlobe

August 29, 2006

TUNCELI, Turkey-Turkish warplanesbombed Kurdish

guerrilla positions in theIraqi border region thisweek, military sourcessaid on Friday.

Several thousand Kurdis-tan Workers Party (PKK)guerrillas are based in themountains of northernIraq and Turkey insists ithas the right to conductcross-border operationsagainst them if Iraq andthe United States fail tocrack down on the rebels.

Iraq has warned Turkeynot send troops into itsterritory.

Military sources in south-east Turkey told Reuterstwo or three warplaneshad bombed the Iraqi bor-der region on Wednesdayevening after PKK forceswere identified in thearea.

The military sources saidthey landed on an uncon-trolled part of the border,but would not say if thebombs landed inside Iraq.The action was not signifi-cant and it was not clearwhat damage had beencaused, the sources said.

A Turkish Foreign Min-istry official declined toconfirm the report, whichcomes after Turkish mediareported F-16 aircraft had

attacked PKK positionsinside Iraq.The PKK denied the re-

ports in a statement."News that Turkish mili-

tary forces' F-16 planesbombed south Kurdistanborder areas are lies andunfounded," it said.

U.S. President GeorgeW. ,Bush told TurkishPrime Minister TayyipErdogan last month theUnited States wanted todeal more aggressivelywith cross-border attacksby PKK rebels.

Diplomats in Ankarasay the government andthe armed forces are frus-trated at little action onthe ground despite mount-

ing soldiers' casualties inTurkey.

More than 30,000 havebeen killed, most of themKurds, since the PKKbegan its campaign f?ra Kurdish homeland In1984.

The United States, Tur-key and the EuropeanUnion, view the PKK asa terrorist organisationbut the U.S. milItary ad-

mits it is too bogged downfighting the Insurgency inIraq to launch a full-scalemilitary crackdown on thePKK demanded by An-

karaArmed clashes have

intensIfied since Apnl,when the TurkIsh mlhtarysent tens of thousands of

extra troops to the south-east to reinforce more than200,000 soldIers alreadystatIOned there.

Reuters

PKK · nothing Inore than an excuse

A PKK guerrilla fighter carrying a Kalashnikov rifle.

Aso KerimGlobe Senior Writer

It is clear that thePKK a Northern-Kurdistani party

has attempted for morethan 20 years to strategi-cally achieve its continu-ing goal of military ac-tion against Turkey. ThePKK membership rolesboth inside and outsideThrkey include Kurdsin Iran, Iraq, Syria andCaucasus, in Diaspora,as well as recruited mem-bers.

Regional governmentsthat have tried to benefitfrom PKK activities in-clude Russia, Iran, andSyria, Saddam's Iraq andother countries. In a recip-rocal interplay, the PKKhas received benefit fromtensions between suchcountries.It is obvious that Iraqi

Kurdistan from 199 Iuntil

58

today has a special status. clear in their statements ofIt has a constitutionally opposition towards devel-recognized regional gov- oping Kurdish positionsemment within a federalcountry having internal, in Iraq, sometimes even toregional and even inter- the point of mterference 111national responsibilities. Iraq's internal matters, inExecution ofthese respon- this case the hngenng is-sibilities with and under- sue of Kirkuk.standing of the liabilities They claim falsely toinherent with them is the protect Turkumans inpath for future mainte- Kurdistan, which in Itselfnance and enforcement. is a breach of the mam

Without a doubt, the PKK principle of sovereignty,has fomented a lot of prob- fully recognized by thelems for Southern Kurdis- tenets of international law.tan. The arrest of Ocalan Turkey discourages speak-has limited the harassment ing about Kurdish Issuesto only a few mountainous inside Turkey Howeverregions on the borders and they have no right to dohas .Iittle l?xistence inside so within a sovereign en-IraqI Kurdlstan. tity such as Kurdistan and

However, deep within' therefore must respectTurkey, the PKK has a other countnes' internalstrong presence within affairs.the cities which are PKK Since 1991 the neighbor-party activity centers. T.his ing countries of Turkey,means that the actual eXlst- Iran and Syria have tried toence and center of opera- coordinate with each othertions of the PKK is inside in studying the Iraqi situ-Turkey's borders and not ation, especially in Iraqioutside its territorial do- Kurdistan. The PKK issuemain. has become one of the se-

And then Turkey is fo- curity issues. We see coor-cusing a misguided and dinatlOn in military actionsChau,,:i~ist respon~e on on both of the Turkey-Ira-25 mIllIon Kurds ln the qi Kurdlstan and Iran-IraqiNorth, and who lack even Kurdistan borders. Boththe simplest community borders have been bom-rights!. barded by artIllery fire and

At the same hme, Turkey air strikes with substantialhas made it abundantly loss to local villagers m the

Region promptmg some toleave the area. This ISjustone example of a serulUSbreach of national sover-eignty and an issue to bereconciled withm the Iraqipresidency.

It is highly doubtful thatAmenca wants coopera-tion between Iran and Tur-key smce Iran supportsHezbollah m Lebanon andis in dIametric opposItionto the United States in theissue of nuclear prolifera-tion.

What shall be the Ameri-can reaction to Iran tryingto attract and enhce Turkeyinto cooperatIOn using thePKK factor? In addition,Iran plays the msurgentcard by usmg Ansar Islamas a threat surrogate to at-tack Iraqi Kurdistam mainforces and the KurdistanRegional Government.The message is clear. IfKurdistan supports Ameri-ca, Iran will instigate trou-ble similar to that beingexperienced In the rest of

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

Iraq, In an attempt to abol-ish the stable security ofIraqi Kurdlstan

The PKK. has recently an-nounced a ceasefire. How-ever Turkey response wasnot positive to the ceasefireand continues ItS attacks onthe PKK.. The duty of thegovernment of Kurdistan

IS to nurture and protectthe region's polttical andlegal status in compltancewith Iraqi Constitution andinternational rule of law.The PKK should take no-tice and respect Kurdistansovereignty by changingits route from Turkey-Iranto its actual domall1 which

is Turkey ItselfIraqi Kurdlstan wil I face

a great challenge In thevery near future, perhapsas early as the end of nextyear. By the end of 2007,the issues of resolvmg thereturn of Kirkuk to theKurdistan Region and oth-er area crises Will be at the

forefrontAll Kurds should rec-

ognize this as a personalchallenge and not side withthose who devise excusesto make the Kurdistan Re-gIOn their own partIculardomain and flooding theregion with accessory du-lles!

e Kurdish Globe

August 29, 2006

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses a meeting of his Justice and Development Party in Ankara, Monday, Aug.14,2006. The PKK's presence in southern Kurdistan and its alleged cross-border activities have been exploited by the Turkish state tolaunch military operations in Iraqi Kurdistan and gain leverage in Kurdish politics, writes Globe's Azad Asian.

sure that no armed groups arepermitted to operate withm itsterritory without its consent.It is the same reasoning thatdictates that detachments ofTurkish forces in the Kurdis-tan Region must also be re-moved. Under whatever pre-text, the presence of foreignor independent armed groupsoutside state control can onlyjeopardize the sovereignty andlegitimacy of en elected gov-ernment.

The PKK's political andmIlitary leaders insist thattheir guerilla forces are fordefensive purposes and haveno intention of engaging theTurkish army m a militaryconfrontation. The PKK claimtheir objectives are Turkey'sdemocratic reform and thefreedom of their impnsonedleader, Abdullah Ocalan.However, PKK leaders mustrealize that the interests of theKurdish nation override thoseofany individual. It is tIme forthe PKK to seriously contem-plate its currertt position, andwhether it really is a positiveforce in the Kurdish national I

movemertt.

Partiya Karkeran Kurdls-tan (The KurdlstanWorkers' Party), PKK,

represents the weakest chamin the Kurdish national move-ment. The inherent contra-dIctions between ItS pohticaltheory and political practiceprovides ample opportunityfor both Turkey and Iran tomarupulate the Kurdish na-tional question m their oc-cupied Kurdish temtories, aswell as to interfere in the polit-ical affairs of southern Kurdis-tan. As Turkey deploys furthertroops to ItS border with Iraq,Iran continues to shell south-ern Kurdistan, causmg moreharm to civilians than PKKguerrillas.

With its confused politIcaldiscourse/objective, rangesfrom "democratic republic"to 'confederalism' , and itscontradictory practIces, whichinclude politIcal and physi-cal violence against its oppo-nents, reduction of Kurdishnational question to individualand minority rights Issue, andsmall-scale but unnecessarymilitary confrontation withTurkish army, the PKK has

Deafening SilenceI-G-I-o-b-e-E-d-l"t-o-r-l" a-I-Ilong consumed its legitimacy maintaining the integrity of the. within the Kurdish national TurkIsh-Iraqi border, should

movement. The question for discuss the PKK issue with thethe future IS not what should Iraqi government, they mustthe PKK do, but rather what also discuss it with the Kurdis-should the Kurds do wIth the tan Regional Goverrnhent,PKK? because that particular part

The PKK's presence in of the border belongs to thesouthern Kurdistan and its Kurdlstan Region." Southernalleged cross-border activi- Kurdistan falls under the juris-ties have been exploited by diction of its regional govern-the Turkish state to launch ment and Assembly, and not amilitary operations in Iraqi single political, economic, so-Kurdistan and gam leverage in cial or mtlitary decIsion mayKurdish politics. be taken wlthm It without the

And Turkey's recent dip- consent of the KRG and thelomatic pressure seems to Kurdistan NatIOnal Assembly.be paymg off, with the Iraqi The Kurdistan National As-Government agreeing to shut sembly must, without delay,down a number of offices be- hold an emergency meetmglonging to the PKK and affili- to formulate a plan to preventated groups. There have also the PKK issue from posingbeen suggestions that Turkey a threat to the future of theand the US have developed a Kurdistan Region.common position on the PKK There are currently a numberIssue and will work together to of scenarios circulating as toeliminate PKK bases in South- the likely outcome of PKK'sem Kurdistan. presence in southern Kurdis-

Such developments jeopard- tan. In the end, the truth ofize the legitimacy and sover- these predictIons is not impor-eigntyoftheKRG. The silence tant. What is of the utmost im-ofKurdistan's government and portance is that the KurdistaninstItutIons is deafening. Sen- Regional Government takesior Kurdish politician Mah- the necessary steps to protectmoud Othman was correct in Kurdish national interests. Forstating: "whilst it is true that the KRG to maintain integrityAnkara, for the purposes of and sovereignty, it must en-

AzadAslanGlobe political Editor

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti

Les Iraniens sereins face auxmenaces de sanctions ......

e'l')

Quatrième exportateur d'or noir, l'Iran dépend largement de ses recettespétrolières destinées surtout à financer des programmes sociaux. SalemilAP

La population ne semblepas s'mquiéterâes menacesde représaillesinternationales.

Téhéran

LESSANCTIONS,c'est le dernierdes soucis de Reza Karimi. I( Mesclients ne se sont pas rués vers lesstocks d'huile et de riz. Ils n'ont paschangé leur comportement d'unpouce Il, confie le gérant du super-marché Baloutche, au cœur duquartier Guicha de Téhéran. Dansles allées bien rangées de son petitcommerce, des mères de familleen foulard poussent leur chariotcomme si de rien n'était. I( Les Ira-mens ne prennent pas au sérieuxlesmenaces étrangèresIl, glisse-t-il.

C'est aujourd'hui, pourtant,qu'arrive à expiration l'ultimatumfixé par le Conseil de sécurité del'ONU pour que Téhéran suspendeses activités nucléaires. Selon la ré-solution votée le 31 juillet dernier,des mesures de rétorsion écono-miques pourraient être envisagéesSI l'Iran refuse de se plier aux exi-gences de la communauté interna-tionale. Elles pourraient, dans unpremier temps, se limiter à un geldes avoirs iraniens et à l'interdic-tion de voyage à l'étranger des diri-geants de la République islamique,et donc n'avoir aucun effet directsur la population.

Mais sur le long terme, s'in-quiètent les économistes, ellespourraient être fatales au pays.I( On pourrait assisterà un boom del'inflation, une dépréciation moné-taire, une augmentation de lafuitedes cerveaux et des capitaux, unemontée du chômage Il, prévientHeydar Pourian, le rédacteur enchef de la revue Iran Economies.

Face aux menaces étrangères,les autorités iraniennes gardent latête haute et se disent prêtes à af-fronter le pire. À plusieurs reprises,elles ont même laissé entendre lapossibilité d'une riposte straté-gique, en fermant les robinets dupétrole. I( Au final, ça risque pour-tant de retomber sur les Iraniens Il,

prévient l'économiste AliRachidi,membre de la chambre de com-merce de Téhéran. Quatrième ex-portateur d'or noir, l'Iran dépendlargement de ses recettes pétro-lières. Elle demeure, également, unimportateur d'essence. Une envo-

60

lée des prix internationaux auraitdonc des répercussions sur l'éco-nomie iranienne. I( On continue àacheter environ 25 % de notre es-sence à l'étranger Il, précise AliRa-clùdi.

Une récession économiqueguette le pays

Pour l'heure, la flambée descours du pétrole a plutôt tendanceà soutenir artificiellement l'écono-mie iranienne. I.:ornoir représente80 % des recettes à l'exportationdu pays, et lui permet donc d'enre- 'gistrer une croissance qui tourneautour des 5 %. Or, regrette Fari-borz Raïs Dana, spécialiste en éco-nonùe, I( les autorités iraniennes nefont aucun effort pour anticiperune possible récessionéconomique Il. Aucontraire. Depuisson arrivée au pouvoir, le prési-dent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pui-se à tour de bras dans l'argent dupétrole pour financer allègrementun grand nombre d'aides à carac-tère social, parmi lesquelles desprêts à taux réduits pour les jeunes.À titre d'exemple, le gouvernementvient de prélever l'équivalent de7,4 milliards de dollars dans leFond de réserve pétrolier (OilSta-

bilisation Fund) au cours desquatre derniers mois. I.:année der-nière, seull,6 milliard de dollarsfut prélevé sur la même période.

Toujours dans le cadre de sapolitique populiste, Ahmadinejadvient de lancer son fameux projetd'Il actions sociales» : l'octroi, à

prix cassés, de 40 % des actions desentreprises étatiques en cours deprivatisation aux couches défavo-risées. I( Mais il serait plus judi-cieux de créerdes emplois pour lut-tercontre le chômage que de vendredes actions à des personnes quin'ont même pas les moyens des'acheterde la viande Il, regrette Fa-riborz Raïs Dana.

Scandalisés par ces incohé-rences gouvernementales, unecinquantaine d'économistes,d'anciens fonctionnaires et d'uni-versitaires ont poussé un cri d'al,\r-me, en juin dernier, en rédigeantune lettre ouverte au présidentAhmadinejad. Ils y dénoncent,entre autres, l'interventionnismeexcessif du gouvernement en ma-tière économique et sociale et re-grettent que le prélèvement exces-

sif sur le fond de réserve ne servemême pas aux investissements.I( L'instabilité politique, les me-naces internationales et la baissedes taux d'intérêt risquent de ré-veiller la bête de l'inflation Il, peut-on lire dans cette lettre ouvertepubliée dans la presse écono-mique.

Pendant ce temps, du côté duConseil de sécurité de l'ONU,l'idée des sanctions continue àdiviser les membres permanents.Mais si la Chine et la Russie s'yopposent, Washington s'est ditprêt à créer sa propre coalitionpour faire pression sur l'Iran.D'après Ali Rachidi, des sanc-tions, même limitées, saperaientvite l'économie iranienne. l(Celafait déjà plus de vingt ans qu'onest sous embargo américain, et onen paye le prix Il, dit-il. Contraintede se diriger vers d'autres mar-chés, la République islamiqueachète ainsi ses équipementsI( entre 20 et 30 % plus cher que lanormale Il.

Quant à l'autosuffisance dontse vantent les autorités ira-niennes, elle pourrait vite trouverses limites en cas de sanctionsoccidentales plus sévères. « L'Irandépend encore largement degrosses entreprises étrangèrespour tout ce qui est pièces déta-chées de voiture ou équipementsutilisés dans l'exploitation pétro-lière et gazière Il, remarque l'éco-nomiste.

Si le débat sur les sanctions

Une économie fondéesur le pétrole

L:lran est le quatrièmeexportateur mondial de pétroleLe pétrole représente 80 % desrecettes Iraniennes àl'exportationTaux de chômage officiel: 11 %.Officieusement, il aVOisine les30%40 % des actions desentreprises iraniennes en coursde privatisation vont êtreréservées aux couches socialesdéfavorisées.

ne fait que commencer, l'ambian-ce d'incertitude qui prévaut dansla capitale iranienne a déjà pous-sé certaines entreprises étran-gères, comme la banque suisseUSB, à anticiper en cessant leursactivités avec la République isla-uùque. En attendant, les chariotscontinuent à glisser dans les al-lées du supermarché Baloutche.« Je continue à croire à une issuede dernière minute sur la crise dunucléaire », confie Reza Karimi, legérant. « Mais si les sanctions fi-nissent par s'imposer, ça sera lapagaille Il, reconnaît-il.

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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Ozeti

Washington a trois options, toutes mauvaises

Iran-Syrie: une alliancepas vraiment convaincante

ASHARQ AL-AWSAT (extraits)Londres

la Syrie, l'Iran dispose de nombreuxatouts dans son jeu, Le pays est l'undes tout premiers producteurs mon-diaux de pétrole, il contrôle le détroitd'Ormuz et s'est doté d'un ambitieuxprogramme nucléaire, trois avantagesdont ne dispose pas la Syrie.

Ces écarts relatifs n'empêchentpas que les deux pays soient liés pardes objectifs communs. D'où leuropposition commune face aux Etat8-Unis en Irak, d'où leur appui conjoint- financier, logistique et militaire - auHezbollah, au Liban. Les deux paysappellent de leurs vœux une rédm;-tion de l'influence sunnite dans larégion, plus particulièrement celileexercée par l'Arabie Saoudite etl'Egypte,Pour l'Iran, un renforcementsunnite se ferait au détriment de sonrôlede puissancerégionaleen tant quepatrie du chiisme mondial. Pour laSyrie,il risquerait d'inciter la majoritésurlnÎtedu pays à se mobiliser contrele régime alaouite au pouvoir.

ToutefOIS,cette alliance straté-gique irano-syrienne n'est pas à l'abride changements. L'Iran verrait ainsid'un mauvais œil tout accord entre laSyrieet Israël,puisqu'il priveraitTéhé-ran de son seul alliédans la région.Deson côté, la Syrie ne manquerait pasde s'inquiéter de tout rapprochemententre l'Iran et les Etats-Unis sur laquestion nucléaire iranienne. Pareilleentente renforcerait la position ira-nienne au point d'amoindrir l'im-portance de l'allié syrien, et Damasperdrait du même coup tout poids I

politique régional.Hoda EI.Hussenni

peut y avoir de compromis avec un paysde l'"axe du mal", La réalité politiqueinterne et l'opinion publique américainesne vont pas dans cette direction, affirmeEiland, et les Etats-Unis auraient enoutre du mal à trouver un soutien inter-national. De plus, "il faudrait lancercette action dans les mois qui viennent.Sinon, si /'Iran poursuit son programmed'enrichissement, il aura achevé sesrecherches et la phase de développe-ment, et disposera de capacités qu'ilpourra dupliquer sur de nombreux sites.Et, là, on ne pourra plus l'arrêter par uneaction militaire. D'iCISIXà douze mois, ilsera trop tard. "Quant aux options d'Israel sur le planmilitaire, le gouvernement se trouvedevant un grave dilemme. L'Etat hébreun'est pas aussi pUissant militairementque les Etats-Unis et, SI une attaquemilitaire ne parvient pas à freiner leprogramme nucléaire Iranien, l'Irannsque de terminer celui-CIet d'Invoquerl'agression préventive d'Israël pour luiInfliger en toute légitimité des frappesnucléaires. David Horovitz,

Jerusalem Post (extraits), Jérusalem

Syrie, il reste que Téhéran n'a ni lesmoyens militaires ni la volonté poli-tique de se lancer dans une confron-tation armée avecIsraël, dans laquelleil ne fait aucun doute que les Etats-Unis interviendraient.

Mais quels sont les fondements decette alliance entre l'Iran et la Syrie?Après le Il septembre 2001, la chutedes talibans en Mghanistan et celledurégime de Saddam Hussein en Irak,le rapport des forces politiques dansla région s'est trouvé fortement modi-fié. La présence des forces étasu-niennes à proximité des frontièressyriennes a constitué une menacedirecte pour la stabilité du régime deDamas. La pression américaine s'est

,encore accrue après l'attentat qui acoûté la vie à l'ancien Premier ministrelibanaisRaficHariri. Le retrait de l'ar-mée syrienne du Liban a mis enlumière un certain nombre de fragili-tés du régime d'Assad, réduisant sen-siblement ses marges de manœuvrestratégiques dans la région, alors quela Syrie avait grandement profité éco-nomiquement et politiquement de saprésence au Liban.

Bien évidemment, l'Iran a étéaffecté par toutes ces évolutions poli-tiques. Le pays n'a pu que se félici-ter de la chute de ses deux ennemisjurés, le régime sunnite des talibans àKaboul et le pouvoir baasiste à Bag-dad. En revanche, la présence desforcesétasuniennes chez ces deux voi-sins immédiats constitue une menaceouverte pour le pouvoir en place àTéhéran. Il reste que, au contraire de

IRAN-ISRAEL

outre convaincre plusieurs autres paysque le prix politique du nucléaire esttrop élevéet donc les dissuader de cher-cher à Imiter l'Iran. "La deuxième option, c'est de tenter uneultime action diplomatique. Au pOintoùon en est, un cocktail de sanctions etd'avantages ne suffira pas à dissua-der l'Iran de renoncer totalement, maispourrait le convaincre de suspendreses projets pendant deux ou trois ans."En échange, les Etats-Unis devraientse mettre à traiter directement avecTéhéran et reconnaÎtre plemement songouvernement. Cela doperait la pOSI-tion et la crédibilité du régime dansle pays et lUipermettrait d'affirmer quec'est volontatrement qu'il a suspenduson programme nucléaire." L'avantagepour l'administration Bush, c'est que"Bush pourrait dire alors: ils ne sontpas devenus nucléaires pendant quej'étais en charge, et c'est à mes suc-cesseurs de veiller à ce que les chosesrestent en l'état".La troisième option, c'est une opérationmilitaire - sion considère que la vOiediplomatique ne donnera nen et qu'II ne

L'axe Téhéran,Damaspeut, il encoretenir si la Syrie obtientsatisfaction d'Israël?Ou si Washingtonadoucit ses positionssur le nucléaire iranien ?

En raison même de sa posi-tion géographique, la Syriene veut pas d'un conflitmilitaire avec Israël. Le

pays de Bachar El-Assad a en effetavecl'Etat hébreu une frontière com-mune, ce qui n'est pas le cas de l'Iran.Sans compter que la situation inté-rieure du régime syrien est moinsassurée que celle du gouvernementiranien actuel. Cette faiblessesyrienneinquiète d'ailleurs Téhéran, dans lamesure où ellepourrait influer sur lespositions iraniennesdans la région. Leprésident iranien Mahmoud Ahma-dinejad a beau assurer à son homo-logue syrien que l'Iran répondrait àtoute attaque israélienne contre la

Le président iranien MahmoudAhmadlnejad, s'II avait un jour le

pouvoir de décision suprême dans sonpays, "sacnfieralt la moitié de /'Iranpour éliminer lsraë/", nous a déclaré le24 août Giora Eiland, l'ancien conseillerà la sécurité nationale d'Israël. A 49ans, le président Iranien "a la convic-tion religieuse que la fm d'Israël estessentielle à la restauration de la gloiredu monde musulman".Face aux ambitions nucléaires de l'Iran,les Etats-Unis ont, selon Eiland, troispossibilités, "toutes mauvaises", et nepourront pas retarder leur décision troplongtemps. La première option, c'estde "céder" - accepter que l'Iran accèdeau rang de pUissance nucléaire etessayer d'exploiter la situation. "Exploi-ter la Situation", c'est-à-dire Isoler l'Iranéconomiquement, politiquement et inter-nationalement dans l'espOir que cettesituation provoquera un jour un chan-gement de régime. "Cela pourrait en

::J<èE-

<::Jo<è George W. Bush peut céder, gagner;;:; du temps ou faire la guerre, explique::J Ie Jerusalem Post.o

~ Paranoïa"On se demandesi Damas est encoreune capitale arabe.La ville est envahiepar des Iraniens,et plus de cinq centslieux de pèlerinagechllte y ont étéconstruits.Téhéran aurait verséà Bachar El-Assad1milliard de dollars",affirme le quotidienkoweitien AI-Seyassah, reflétantla paranoia despétromonarchiesarabes du Golfeengendrée par lapuissance Iranienne.

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Ugly images in Iran

Iranianshave not been flocking tothe museum in Tehran where204 winning entries in the "Holo-caust International Cartoon

Contest" are on exhibit. The Iranianpublic's indifference may be due to anunderstanding that the nasty imageson display are not meant to improvelife in Iran. Rather they belong to apropaganda campaign by Iran's pres-ident, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whoseeks to divert Iran's neighbors fromworrying about the projection of Ira-nian power through Iraq and Syriaand into Lebanon. He also wants tomake them forget that they would bethreatened as much as Israel if Iranacquired nuclear weapons.

One of the images in the Tehranexhibition shows a caricature of anorthodox Jew with an egregiouslylong nose that impales an Arab fig-ure; the nose is labeled "Holocaust."Another depicts the Statue of Liberty .holding a book on the Holocaust in

one hand and raising the other handin a Nazi salute.

Ahmadinejad and the exhibit's or-ganizers have said that the contest'spurpose is to reveal Western doublestandards concerning free speech.Since the West justified last year'spublication of Danish cartoonsmocking the prophet Mohammed as adefense of free speech rights, they say,the cartoons denying the Holocaustwill test the depth of Westerners' at-tachment to freedom of expression.

The tacit premise to this pairing ofsubjects is tha~ for _E~~opeans, the

existence of the Holocaust has be-come as sacred as the prophet of Is-lam is to Muslims. And since Ah-madinejad has made it plain he doesnot believe the Holocaust happened,calling it a myth, his equating ofEuropean sensitivities about theHolocaust to Muslim reverence forMohamméd implies that whileMuslims are defending the Jruth of

their religion against blasphemy, theEuropeans are acting offended in de-fense of a political myth.

In a revealing interview last Maywith the German weekly Der Spiegel,Ahmadinejad seemed to rattle the in-terviewer by acting as though thereality of the Holocaust is unproved.He cited European laws againstHolocaust denial as proof that theWest fears a free debate about thehistorical truth of the Holocaust. Hewent on to suggest that "if the Holo-caust occurred, then Europe mustdraw the consequences," implyingthat Europe should provide a statefor the Jews. And then he added: "If itdid not occur, then the Jews have togo back to where they came from. Ibelieve that the German peopletoday are also prisoners of the Holo-caust." In other words, Germanswould side with Ahmadinejad if onlythey had not been made to feel guiltyby the myth of the Holocaust.

Like the cartoons he invited toTehran, Ahmadinejad's notionsabout the Holocaust are no less re-pulsive for being false.

- The Boston Globe

35 autres dans cet immense soukoù se vendent aussi bien des an-tennes satellites que des épices.

Les lieux de l'explosionétaient, selon les témoins, cou-verts de sang et maculés de mor-ceaux de chair brûlée tandis queplusieurs véhicules étaient enfeu. Dans le quartier commer-çant de Karrada, situé au centre-

e ville, ce sont trois personnesdont un policier qui ont péridans un double attentat. Unebombe artisanale a tout d'abordéclaté au milieu d'une file de voi-tures faisant la queue devant unestation-essence puis un véhiculepiégé a explosé dans le mêmesecteur. A Hilla, à une centainede kilomètres au sud de Bagdad,c'est une moto qui a sauté de-vant un centre de recrutementde l'armée faisant au moins12 morts et 38 blessés. Toutes lesvictimes sont des hommes venuss'engager dans les forces ira-kiennes. Le centre avait ouvertses portes voici quatre jours etplus d'un millier de personnesétaient rassemblées dans les en-virons.

En février 2005, 125 recruesvenues passer des tests avaientpéri à Hilla dans des circons-tances analogues dans un atten-tat perpétré par un kamikaze.Cette méthode de terreur cou-ramment utilisée par la guérillasunnite vise bien sûr à découra-ger les candidats à des emplois

cible d'une attaque particulière-ment meurtrière. Une bombedissimulée à une heure de gran-de affluence dans un sac a tué auIl}oins 23 passants et blessés

PLUSIEURSATTENTATSont cau-sé des dizaines de morts hier àBagdad. Le marché populaire deChorja, l'un des plus importantsde la capitale irakienne, a été la

~Une bombe artisanale devant une station-service, dans le centre de Bagdad, a tué deux personnes. Mahmoud/Reuters

Explosion meurtrièresur un marché de Bagda~IRAKDe nouveaux attentats

Ul ont fait plus deg quarante morts en Irak.Nl-.:;)o«

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dans l'armée et la police. Mais envisant Hilla, une ville mixte où secôtoyaient chiites et sunnites, lesinsurgés cherchent à creuser lefossé entre communautés.

MalédictionA quelques kilomètres de là,

près de Souwaira, les règlementsde comptes interethniques sesont soldés par la découverte decinq cadavres - des civrIs tuéspar balles -, dans le Tigre. Ilsavaient les mains liées et por-taient des traces de torture. Lejour pré.cédent, quatre corps

avaient été repêchés dans le fleu-ve près de la même localité. Autotal, au moins 45 morts ont étérecensés hier dans des actes deviolence dans l'ensemble dupays. Les victimes se comptent

également parmi les troupesaméricaines. Quatorze soldatsaméricains ont été tués depuisdimanche, soit un nombre plusélevé qu'à l'ordinaire.

Un calme précaire s'est en re-vanche instauré à Diwaniyah, à180 km au sud de Bagdad, où desaffrontements entre des mili-

ft1llondeJeudi 31 août 2006

dens chiites de l'armée du Mah-di et des militaires irakiens ontcausé 81 morts. Les combatsavaient éclaté après l'arrestationsamedi d'un potentat local dumouvement du chef radical Mo-qtada al-Sadr. L'explosion acci-dentelle avant-hier d'un oléoducà proximité de la localité avait

encore ajouté un peu plus dechaos. 36 habitants qui tentaientde détourner du carburant del'ouvrage ont été tués dans la dé-flagration. Un~ catastrophe qui

rappelle à quel point le pétroleest devenu une malédiction enIrak.

T. O. (AVEC AFP ET AP)

TURQUIE VAGUE D'ATTAQUES SANGLANTES VISANT LES SITES TOURISTIQ'UES

Les « Faucons de la liberté» kurdes revendiquent les attentatsISTANBULCORRESPONDANCE

L'explosion d'Antalya, qui a fait3 morts, lundi 28 août, était bienun nouvel attentat. Les Fauconsde la liberté du Kurdistan (TAK),présumés proches du PKK (Partides travailleurs du Kurdistan,séparatiste) l'ont revendiqué surleur site Internet, comme ilsl'avaient fait la veille pour lesattentats de Marmaris et d'Is-tanbul. Les TAK ont de nouveauaffirmé avoir agi en représaillesau traitement dont fait l'objetAbdullah Ocalan, l'ex-leader du-PKK, sur son île-prison d'Imrali.« Nous allons faire payer cher à laRépublique turque ces mesures »,menace le communiqué.

AAntalya, autour du lieu de l'at-taque, les drapeaux turcs ont fleu-

ri un peu partout, en signe de res-serrement national. Dans la crain-te de nouvelles attaques, les auto-rités turques ont renforcé la sécu-rité à proximité des sites touristi-ques. La France et d'àutres payseuropéens ont mis en garde lestouristes qui se rendent en Tur-quie. Le quai d'Orsay leur ademandé d'« observer laplus gran-de vigilance, particulièrement àIstanbul et dans les stations bal-néaires C..). De nouveaux attentatsne sont pas à exclure. »

Cette vague d'attentats menéepar les TAK intervient pourtantquelques jours après une proposi-tion de trêve du PKK. Le numérodeux du mouvement kurde,Murat Karayilan, a annoncé qu'ilétait «prêt à un cessez-le-feu àcompterdu1" septembre »,àcondi-

tion toutefois que la Turquieaccepte d'accorder une amnistie àtous ses militants.

Simple émanation du PKK,pour les autorités turques, lesTAKsont toutefois, pour de nom-breux analystes, une branche dis-sidente du mouvement kurdeclandestin. Depuis l'emprisonne-ment à vie d'Abdullah Ocalan,des luttes de pouvoir et des dissen-sions sont apparues au sein duPKK. Plusieurs milliers de sesmembres sont retranchés dansles camps des montagnes de Kan-dil, au Kurdistan irakien, d'où ilsmènent, selon l'armée, des raidscontre les forces turques.

De nombreuses voix: plaidentpour une intervention militairedans le nord de l'Irak. Depuis plu-sieurs mois, la Turquie milite

auprès de Bagdad et de Washing-ton pour qu'ils mettent fin auxactivités des rebelles kurdes. Ensigne de bonne volonté, le dépar-tement d'Etat américain s'estrésolu, mardi, à dépêcher le géné-ral Joseph Ralston pour travaillerdans la région à « l'élimination dela menace terroriste du PKK».Mais la Turquie a pris les devants.Il y a quelques jours, des avionsF16turcs ont mené plusieurs opé-rations en territoire \ irakien,contre des camps du PKK. Et legénéral Yasar Büyükanit, nomméà la tête des armées, lundi, et parti-san d'une intervention en Irak, aannoncé, dans son discours d'in-vestiture, qu'« éliminer les terroris-tes kurdes était l'une de ses priori-tés ».•

GUILLAUME PERRIER

FINANCIAL TIMES August 31, 2006

~urkey braced for further decline in tourism~~ ~.ncent Bola.~~.i~An~~r.a...

Turkey's $18bn tOUrIsmimdustry IS braced for a fur-ther fall m Vlsltors and reve-nues in an already dIffIcultyear for the country's ècon-amy, after terronst attackson holIday destmatIOns thISweek kIlled three people andinjured dozens

There IS no eVldence ofcancelled tnps to the coun.rty since the wave of bomb.'ings in Istanbul, Marmansand Antalya began on Sun-day

Oktay VarlIer, chaIrman ofthe Turkish tounsm mves-tors' association, saId accu.pancy rates at hotels m theAegean and Med1terraneanresorts that cater to mosttourists had not fallen

E}uthe and other mdustryoffIcIaIs saId the incIdentscould exacerbate a declIne mtounst revenue that wasalready eVIdent this yearafter more than two decadesof growth

"The mdustry has beengrowing at 10 per cent a yearsmce 1985, but thIS year IS

stagnation," Mr VarlIer saId.Tounsm accounts for

about 6 per cent of Turkey'sgross domestic product andISan rmportant earner of fot-elgn exchange revenues,helpmg to fmance the coun-try's gapmg current accountdefIcit

Turkey had 21m VlsItorsand earned $182bn (€14 2bn,£9 5bn) from them m 2005But tounst numbers are notexpected to nse thIS year,and prOjectIOns suggest thatrevenues could fall to about$17bn.

An outbreak of bIrd flu mJanuary that kllled severalchildren IS cIted as the chIefreason for the slowdown

However, tourism officialsalso blame a declme m thequalIty of the product onoffer across much of thecountry's Mediterraneancoast

Mr Varl1er saId that some25,000 new hotel bedswere added m Turkeyevery year, but operatorswere unable to Increasepnces because of Intensecompetition, pushmg down

overall industry reVlmuesBasaran Ulusoy, chaIrman

of the assocIatIon of TurkIshtravel agencIes, wrote Inyesterday's Hurnyet news-paper that there were toomany hotels in the crowdedbeach resorts - Antalya getsabout one-thIrd of all tour-IStS to Turkey - and too fewnear other tOUrist attrac-tions

He called for more mvest-ment m hIgher value-addedtounsm, mcludmg the bUlld-mg of more fIve-star hotelsaway from the beaches

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