De-growth thinking – solutions for future food system?

Titta Tapiola, University of Turku

Master’s Degree student of Futures Studies 1st year

Setting the scene

• Natural resources – where are we now?

• The economy – where are we now?

• The modern food system – where are we now?

• The future of growth

• De-growth theories

• Two simple food system scenarios

The World at the moment

• Global population is still growing exponentially • Fossil fuels depletion, especially Peak in oil extraction is

approaching or it is already reality (Campbell and Laherrere, 1998; de Castro et al.,2009; Mediavilla M, 2013)

• Availability of natural resources is diminishing (Meadows D et al., 2005, Heiberg & Lerch, 2010)

– Land – Water – Forests – Biodiversity – Ecosystem services (bees) – Minerals

• Pollution and waste – limited “space” for disposal – Climate change

Summary of oil extraction by different authors, millions barrels of oil per day. (taken from Mediavilla M et al. 2013, source BP)

World Population, exponential growth

Source: http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm:

Here we are with the Global Footprint

Source: Global Footprint Network: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/world_footprint/

http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/world_footprint/http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/world_footprint/http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/world_footprint/

The Economy at the moment

• The amount of debt is increasing (Douthwaite R, 2012)

– How long this “debt fueled” growth can go on?

• Richest country group have 9 % of world’s population, but owns 78% of world’s income (Eriksson & Andersson, 2010)

• Most consuming population decile consumes 59% of world’s total private consumption (World Bank)

Rich-country debt has grown remarkably in the past ten years (taken from Douthwaite R, 2012, Source: The Economist)

The Economy at the moment

The Economy at the moment

The Economy at the moment

• The global economy has grown to be five times bigger than fifty years ago. If the growth continues, the economy will be 80 bigger by 2100.

60% of the world’s ecosystem services have been degraded or over used. (Jackson T, 2009)

The Modern Food System at the moment

• Consolidation trend within the Food System (Murphy S, 2008; Heinberg & Lerch, 2010)

– From farm size to food production companies and all the way to the retail sector

• Food system is getting simplified (e.g. monocultures) which increases systemic risks and decreases resilience

• Heavily dependent on fossil fuels (Heinberg & Lerch, 2010)

• How to increase food production without using more energy and resources like water and phosphate?

The consolidation of the Modern Food system, food industry, USA

Market concentration for four biggest firms in USA food industry. Source: Hellen & Keoleian, 2003

The future of growth?

Continuous growth could make sense, only if one of the three conditions were true (Daly, 2009) :

(a) if the economy were not an open subsystem of a finite biophysical system

(b) if the economy were growing in a non physical dimension

(c) if the laws of thermodynamics did not apply

Technologies as a solution?

Theoretically, growth could be combined with maintenance of environmental quality.

It would require technologies that simultaneously:

(i) are clean – no significant pollution

(ii) do not deplete renewable resources

(iii) find substitutes for non-renewable resources

(iv) leave the soil and water resources more or less intact

(v) leave sufficient space for plant and animal species

(vi) are cheaper in real terms than current technologies, because otherwise growth would be hampered. (Hueting R., 2010)

De-growth theories

De-growth has three different “approaches”

– Steady-State Economics (SSE) (Daly, 2009)

– New Economics (NE) of prosperity (Jackson, 2009)

– De-growth (DG) (Latouche, 2010).

The future of growth – de-growth • “De-growth can be defined as a stable and equitable downscaling of society’s

throughput” (Kallis G, 2013) – Voluntary individual simplification is necessary, but not sufficient – Different approached for developed and developing countries (global North and

South) - equality – Institutional interventions and limitations at various scales are needed (Schneider F. et

al., 2010)

“The right to simplicity” or “downscaling” – social and institutional frameworks and intensives that make downscaling possible Investments to alternative energy sources Reduction of working hours and redefinition of work Advertising in creation of identity Population growth?

• De-growth could be a step towards Steady State Economy (SSE)

• SSE is an economy that maintains a constant flow of resources from depletion to pollution; however a throughput is within the capacity of our ecosystems (so that it is taken care for the future generations). (Daly, 2009)

• According to Hueting the production must be reduced by half in order to reach sustainable level.

GHG emissions from food transport

Social value

Local production (availability) Food prices

Local income and new working hours distribution

GHG emissions from local agriculture

Food system1 has prepared for peak oil according to de-growth thinking, sustainability and increased also resilience

Food system2 has NOT prepared for peak oil and has continued BAU*

*BAU= Business as usual

Local income and employment

Food prices Local production (availability)

Social value

GHG emissions from food transport

GHG emissions from local agriculture

Two different food systems after peak oil and rising oil prices

Modified from Ericksen P., 2008, 242

Conclusions

• De-growth thinking approaches global limits from economical perspective

• The de-growth thinking is in line with sustainable development

• The future food systems should be prepared for – climate change – increasing population – decreasing natural resources – peak oil

• This could be done by de-growth (Steady State Economy) and by increasing the resilience of the future food systems for example by increasing localization

References Campbell, C.J., Laherrere, J.H. ”The end of cheap oil” Scientific American, March 1998,78–83., 1998 Daly H; “From a Failed Growth Economy to a Steady-State Economy” The Oil Drum, posted June 6, 2009 (accessed 27.5.2013) http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5464 De Castro, C., Miguel, L.J.,Mediavilla, M. “The role of nonconventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil.” Energy Policy 37 (5), 1825–1833 ,2009 Douthwaite R. ”Degrowth and the supply of money in an energy-scarce world” Ecological Economics 84, 187-193, 2012 Meadows D., J. Randers & D. Meadows “Kasvun rajat – 30 vuotta myöhemmin” Gaudeamus, Helsinki University Press , 2005 Ericksen P; ”Conceptualizing food systems for global environmental change research” Global Environmental Change, Volume 18, Issue 1, 234–245, 2008 Eriksson R. & Andersson O. “Elements of Ecological Economics”, Routledge, 2010 ESA http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm (accessed 27.5.2013) Global Footprint Network: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/world_footprint (accessed 27.5.2013) Heinberg R. and Lerch D., editors: Post Carbon Reader – Managing the 21st century’s sustainability crisis. Post Carbon Institute, Watershed Media, 2010 Heller, Martin C., Gregory A Keoleian. Assessing the sustainability of the US food system: a life cycle perspective. Journal of Agricultural Systems, Volume 76, Issue 3,, p. 1007–1041, 2003. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X02000276 Hueting R. “Why environmental sustainability can most probably not be attained with growing production” Journal of Cleaner Production 18, 525–530, 2010 Jackson T; ”Prosperity without growth? The transition to a sustainable economy” Sustainable Development Commission, 2009. http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=914 Kallis G. “Societal metabolism, working hours and degrowth: a comment on Sorman and Giampietro” Journal of Cleaner Production 38, 94-98, 2013 Latouche S; “Degrowth” Journal of Cleaner Production 18, 519-522, 2010 Mediavilla M. et al. ”The transition towards renewable energies: physical limits and temporal conditions” Energy Policy, 52, 297-311, 2013 Schneider F., Kallis G., Martinez-Alier J. “ Crisis or opportunity? Economic degrowth for social equity and ecological sustainability. Introduction to this special issue”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 18, 511-518, 2010

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Thank you for your attention!