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CERTAINTIES
OF THE "KNOWABLE FUTURE"
• DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTS – The future size and
make-up of the U.S. adult population – including our labor pool
and our consumer markets – can be accurately forecast fifteen
years out.
• ECONOMETRIC FORECASTS – The future size and
make-up of the U.S. economy and workforce can be accurately
forecast ten years out.
• TECHNOLOGIC FORECASTS – Mass-market
applications of new technology can be accurately forecast seven
to eight years out.
(Fig. 1) AGE COMPOSITION OF THE U.S. ADULT
POPULATION 1955-2020
SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
debt, deleveraging & AUSTERITYAsset Bubbles and Their Economic Consequences
A 2010 McKinsey Global Institute analysis of 45 historic
episodes during which 10 developed nations and 4
developing nations significantly reduced their total debt-
to-GDP ratios since 1930, found:
• long periods of deleveraging nearly always follow major
financial crises;
• deleveraging lasts 6 or 7 years, on average, during which
• public & private sector debt are typically reduced by 1/3,
while employment contracts & stagnates.
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/debt_and_deleveraging
To learn how “Big Data” and the “Internet of Things”
(IoT) will change how all decisions are made,
performance is assessed and organizations are
managed, read:
"BIG DATA: THE REAL INFORMATION REVOLUTION”
www.aaiforesight.com/blog/big-data-information-revolution
LABOR SUPPLY AND DEMAND – (2010 to 2020)
• Projected new job growth 20,468,900
• Projected replacement vacancies + 34,318,500
• Total job openings 54,787,400
• Projected labor force growth -10,372,000
• Job openings to be filled 44,415, 400
from existing labor pool
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (February, 2012)
David Pearce Snyder Consulting Futurist
www.the-futurist.com
“The future evolves in an orderly fashion out of the realities of the past, filtered and shaped by the decisions of the present.”
David Pearce Snyder, 1969
[email protected] After 45 years, it’s still true!
