David GeorgeHousing Intelligence for

the East Midlands (hi4em)December 2011

Fuel Poverty costs

How does fuel poverty impact on society?• Slows infant development – impact for life• Children and teenagers more likely to suffer:

– Meningitis and respiratory problems– Long term ill health and disability– Slow physical growth and delayed cognitive

development

• Vulnerable adults more likely to suffer:– Heart attack, stroke or respiratory illness– Slips, trips and falls

• Huge cost to NHS, Education, Social Services, Criminal Justice System – and people’s lives

References:• Harker L (2006) Chance of a lifetime: The impact of housing on children’s lives.

London: Shelter. http://england.shelter.org.uk/professional_resources/policy_library/policy_library_folder/chance_of_a_lifetime_-_the_impact_of_bad_housing_on_childrens_lives

• Capie R (2009) Beyond built: The role of housing in tackling inequality. CIH presentation to the Marmot Review. http://issuu.com/healthygreenfutures/docs/uk_marmot_review

• Review of Health and Safety Risk Drivers’ CLG in 2008: http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/planningandbuilding/pdf/reviewhealthsafety.pdf

East Midlands Fuel Poverty levels

• DECC 2008 LSOA dataset = 359,000 (19.2%)– Based on fuel costs, income and energy needed to

heat homes

• Hi4em 2011 LSOA dataset = 277,400 (14.1%)– Based on CO2 emissions, household income and fuel

costs (Nottingham Energy Partnership web site March 2011)

– What is actually spent rather than what is needed

Spatial distribution

Effect of price rises

15% Price rise: 75,000 more fuel poor 26.9% increase 30%+ in parts of

Lincolnshire Map shows numeric

increase

Hi4em fuel poverty Model can be updatedas prices fluctuate

UK Carbon Reduction targets

UK CO2 reduction targets (million tonnes)

8.5

2.40.82.7

1.5

3.2

0.9

3.50.5

Business as usual Price impact Zero carbon homes

Lofts and cavities to 2012 Smart meters Renewable Heat Incentive

CERT/CESP to 2012 Major measures 2012-2020 Lofts and cavities 2012-2020

East Midlands targetsEast Midlands CO2 reduction targets (tonnes)

583,000

162,00048,600178,00097,200

210,600

64,800

243,00024,400

Business as usual Price impact Zero carbon homes

Lofts and cavities to 2012 Smart meters Renewable Heat Incentive

CERT/CESP to 2012 Major measures 2012-2020 Lofts and cavities 2012-2020

Green deal – how many homes?

Lofts & cavities 2012-20:– 32,400 tonnes - equal to 381,000 loft top-ups

or 81,000 cavity insulations

• Major measures – primarily solid wall insulation– 243,000 tonnes – equal to 162,000 dwellings

or 30% of all solid walled houses

The task

Will get harder– Fuel market price increases– Cost of carbon reduction policies expected to

be £200 per household– Policies expected to have much smaller impact

where homes are fully insulated

• Message: – Pay to insulate your home, or pay to insulate

your neighbour’s home

• Challenge:– Match Green Deals to fuel poor households

Fuel Poor householdsDECC data: 61.4% are single adult households

DECC - % of fuel poor households by household composition

6.8

15.1

9.9

7.07.020.6

33.8

Couple, no dependent child(ren), under 60 Couple, no dependent child(ren), aged 60 or over

Couple with dependent child(ren) Lone parent with dependent child(ren)

Other multi-person households One person under 60

One person aged 60 or over

Fuel Poor householdsDECC data: 26.8% of single adult households are fuel poor

5.5

14.7

7.1

16.614.2

24.1

33.4

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Couple, nodependentchild(ren),under 60

Couple, nodependentchild(ren),aged 60 or

over

Couple w ithdependentchild(ren)

Lone parentw ith

dependentchild(ren)

Other multi-person

households

One personunder 60

One personaged 60 or

over

DECC Fuel Poor by household composition

Fuel Poor

Fuel Poor householdsHi4em data: 71% are single adult households or home sharers

Hi4em - % of fuel poor by family lifestage

Other Elderly family no children <18

Elderly single Mature family no children <18

Mature family with children <18 Mature household with children <18

Mature singles/homesharers Older family no children <18

Older family/household with children<18 Older single

Young family no children <18 Young family with children <18

Young household with children <18 Young singles/homesharers

Fuel Poor householdsHi4em data: 26.9% are single adult households or home sharers

05

1015202530354045

Hi4em - % in fuel poverty by family lifestage

% in fuel poverty

Targeting

Average area of 3,000 households: Target 1,000 single person households – data

available to LAs through Council Tax single person discount

Reaches 269 in fuel poverty = approx 66% of all fuel poor

Leaves 139 fuel poor families to find

Targeting

Single person households in or at risk of fuel poverty

Families in or at risk of fuel poverty

Hi4em help

• Hi4em model can be split into families and single person households

• Your household data can be added to improve accuracy:– Insulation installed– Boilers replaced– CO2 emission estimates– Renewable energy installations– Household income data

• Target areas based on most up-to-date data

Hi4em help

We can analyse data to give:• dwelling and household characteristics of fuel

poor households in your area• loft, cavity and solid wall insulation targets to

eliminate fuel poverty and meet carbon reduction targets in any area

• Ranking of lower super output areas to your criteria – fuel poverty, dwelling age, vulnerability etc

More information

Full report and appendices:

• Expands on these themes and gives much more data

• Available at www.hi4em.org.uk

Any Questions?