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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/ 1 1 Date: 6/9/2017 Hitachi Maxell (6810, JP) Recommendation: Outperform Exchange: Tokyo Stock Exchange 1 Share Price: JPY2,213 (6/6/2017) Sector: Electric Parts Target Price: JPY2,984 Market Cap: JPY118.0 billion P/E: 23.4x (8/17 CE) P/B: 1.0x (3/17 act) Div. Yield: 1.6% (3/17 CE) Highlight METRICAL maintains ‘Outperform’ and raises target price to from JPY2,826 to JPY2,984. Maxell increases its profitability, improving its business portfolio for a few years. OP margin incrementally rose from 3.3% for FY03/2015 to 4.7% for FY03/2016 and 5.6% for FY03/2017 and expected to rise to 6.0% for FY03/2018 (E) by METRICAL forecast (5.7% by Company guidance), while sales are likely to remain standstill. Automotive 3 products such as TPMS use battery, car camera lenses and car LED headlamp lenses are expected to continue expanding. The cash flows generated from such growth products will lower its valuation such as EV/EBITDA and Sum-Of-the-Parts value. The soft sales expectation keeps eyes of investors off the shares but should be focused on its change of business portfolio, which should accelerate improving profitability to 6.8% for FY03/2019 (E) and 7.4% for FT03/2020 (E) in OPM after restructuring of legacy business such as magnetic tapes. Business Description Hitachi Maxell was established in 1961 and has expanded its business from battery and magnetic tape of its core products since founded. Maxell has once become a wholly owned subsidiary of Hitachi Ltd. in 2010 and went to public again, relisted in Tokyo Stock Exchange in 2014 after strengthening its business to shift to B to B from B to C (see 2 pie charts on the left). The current business is divided to 3 segments of Energy, Industrial Material and Electronic Appliance/Consumer Product. Sales and OP by business segment are shown 2 bar charts on the left. Energy Energy segment consists mainly of lithium-ion rechargeable batteries for mainly smartphones, micro batteries and other battery products. Of micro- batteries, heat-resistant coin-type lithium manganese dioxide batteries are a growth driver used for tire pressure monitoring systems (TPMS). Sale and OP of this segment accounts 26% and 27% for FY03/2017. Industrial Material Industrial Material consists of 2 growth products that support automotive technology as high-precision lens units for car camera and LED car headlamp lenses. Other products include Adhesive tape used for packing, protection, and building, and is also combined with new functions for use in the semiconductor manufacturing process and in electronics, and Magnetic tape. Sale and OP of this segment accounts 32% and 39% for FY03/2017.

Date: 6/9/2017 Hitachi Maxell (6810, JP) Recommendation: … · 2017. 6. 9. · number of cars equipped LED car headlamp lenses are expected to grow 5% for 2014 to more than 20% for

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Page 1: Date: 6/9/2017 Hitachi Maxell (6810, JP) Recommendation: … · 2017. 6. 9. · number of cars equipped LED car headlamp lenses are expected to grow 5% for 2014 to more than 20% for

METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/

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Date:6/9/2017

HitachiMaxell(6810,JP) Recommendation:OutperformExchange:TokyoStockExchange1 SharePrice:JPY2,213(6/6/2017)Sector:ElectricParts TargetPrice:JPY2,984MarketCap:JPY118.0billion P/E:23.4x(8/17CE)P/B:1.0x(3/17act) Div.Yield:1.6%(3/17CE)

HighlightMETRICALmaintains‘Outperform’andraisestargetpricetofromJPY2,826toJPY2,984.Maxellincreasesitsprofitability,improvingitsbusinessportfolioforafewyears.OPmarginincrementallyrosefrom3.3%forFY03/2015to4.7%forFY03/2016and5.6%forFY03/2017andexpectedtoriseto6.0%forFY03/2018(E)byMETRICALforecast(5.7%byCompanyguidance),whilesalesarelikelytoremainstandstill.Automotive3productssuchasTPMSusebattery,carcameralensesandcarLEDheadlamplensesareexpectedtocontinueexpanding.ThecashflowsgeneratedfromsuchgrowthproductswillloweritsvaluationsuchasEV/EBITDAandSum-Of-the-Partsvalue.Thesoftsalesexpectationkeepseyesofinvestorsoffthesharesbutshouldbefocusedonitschangeofbusinessportfolio,whichshouldaccelerateimprovingprofitabilityto6.8%forFY03/2019(E)and7.4%forFT03/2020(E)inOPMafterrestructuringoflegacybusinesssuchasmagnetictapes.BusinessDescriptionHitachiMaxellwasestablishedin1961andhasexpandeditsbusinessfrombatteryandmagnetictapeofitscoreproductssincefounded.MaxellhasoncebecomeawhollyownedsubsidiaryofHitachiLtd.in2010andwenttopublicagain,relistedinTokyoStockExchangein2014afterstrengtheningitsbusinesstoshifttoBtoBfromBtoC(see2piechartsontheleft).Thecurrentbusinessisdividedto3segmentsofEnergy,IndustrialMaterialandElectronicAppliance/ConsumerProduct.SalesandOPbybusinesssegmentareshown2barchartsontheleft.EnergyEnergysegmentconsistsmainlyoflithium-ionrechargeablebatteriesformainlysmartphones,microbatteriesandotherbatteryproducts.Ofmicro-batteries,heat-resistantcoin-typelithiummanganesedioxidebatteriesareagrowthdriverusedfortirepressuremonitoringsystems(TPMS).SaleandOPofthissegmentaccounts26%and27%forFY03/2017.IndustrialMaterialIndustrialMaterialconsistsof2growthproductsthatsupportautomotivetechnologyashigh-precisionlensunitsforcarcameraandLEDcarheadlamplenses.OtherproductsincludeAdhesivetapeusedforpacking,protection,andbuilding,andisalsocombinedwithnewfunctionsforuseinthesemiconductormanufacturingprocessandinelectronics,andMagnetictape.SaleandOPofthissegmentaccounts32%and39%forFY03/2017.

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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/

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ElectronicAppliance/ConsumerProductElectronicApplianceandConsumerProductsellssmallelectricalequipment,accessoriesandrecordingmediaanddrybatteriesforconsumermarket.ProjectorsandBeautycareapplianceshavebeendrivingearningsofthesegment.Projectorsareprovidedtocompaniesandeducationalinstitutions.SaleandOPofthissegmentaccounts42%and34%forFY03/2017.IndustryOverviewandCompetitivePositioningIndustryOverviewMaxellisshiftingfromBtoCtoBtoB,buteachsegmentiscomprisedofmixedportfolioofgrowthandlegacyproducts.2barchartsontheleftshowsalesofgrowthandlegacyproductsforFY03/2015andFY03/2017respectively.Ofgrowthproducts,heat-resistantcoin-typelithiummicrobatteryisexpanding,asanincreasingnumberofcountrieslegislatealawforequippingTPMS(TirePressureMonitoringSystem)inacar.TPMSbatterymarketintheworldisexpectedtogrow11%perannumfrom150millionunitsfor2015to219millionunitsfor2020.CarcameralensesareexpectedtobenefitfromADAS(AdvancedDrivingAssistantSystem)thatwillreplacefromcarviewcameratocar‘sensing’camera.Forinstance,morethan10lensesareusedforsensingcamerainhigh-endcarmodels.Carcamera(viewcamera+sensingcamera)isexpectedtoincreasefrom16%perannumfrom65millionunitsfor2014to160millionunitsfor2020.LEDcarheadlamplensesarealsogrowingonincreasingdemandoflowelectricityconsumptionlightsinadditionto‘DaytimeRunningLight’legislatedinEuropeandU.S.ThenumberofcarsequippedLEDcarheadlamplensesareexpectedtogrow5%for2014tomorethan20%for2020inworldwide.Projectorshavegrown,focusingonhigh-endmarketformainlyeducationinstitutions.BeautyCareappliancesmaintainupbeatduetogrowingsaletoforeignvisitorsaswellasincreasingdemandofhealthandbeautyconsciousofconsumers.Conversely,Lithium-IonBatteryforsmartphonehasgrownslowerinlinewithsoftgrowthofsmartphonedevices.MagneticTapehasdeclinedduetosubstitutionbynewertechnology.ConsumerAppliancessuchasaudioaccessoryanddrybatteryhavedeterioratedprofitabilityduetocommodityproducts.CompetitivePositioningCompetitivePositioningisanalyzedeachgrowthandlegacyproductsin5Forces.GrowthProductsMicroBatteryforTPMSBuyers(Lowrisk):Maxellasatopmanufacturerhascloserelationshipwithglobal5majorTPMSmakersthroughjointdevelopment,havingnormallylong-termcontractforitsproductshipment.GoingforwardincreasingnumberofcountriesarelikelytorequireTPMSinautomobilesbylaw.Chinawillscheduletolegislateitin2019.

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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/

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Suppliers(Lowrisk):MaxellasatopmanufacturerhascloserelationshipwithsuppliersgloballyforitsplantinOno,Japan.Commoditypricesarecurrentlyrelativelystable.Competition(Lowrisk):Duetolimitednumberofheat-resistantcoin-typelithiummicrobatteryandmarketexpansion,competitionismoderate.CompetitorsarePanasonicandSony.NewEntry(Lowrisk):Mainlyduetotechnologybarrierthatrequiresstablequalityunder-40degreesCelsiusto+125degreesC,newentranceislimited.Substitution(Middlerisk):Maxellkeepsdevelopingtechnology,providingbatteryfordirectattachedontiretypeTPMSmodulethatenablesittolinkagewithABSsystem.TPMSislikelytoadvanceinlinewithsafedrivingtechnology,although‘indirect’typeTPMSwouldbeathreatfor‘direct’typemakerssuchasMaxell.ButdirecttypeTPMSwillbeappliedtosensingofroadsurfaceinfuture.CarcameralensesBuyers(Lowrisk):MaxellasoneofWW3manufacturerhascloserelationshipwithcarcameramakersonreliablehighqualityofproducts.Sensingcamerarequiresfarhigherqualityinwiderange,resolution,heatresistanceandwaterrepellency.Suppliers(Lowrisk):MaxellasatopmanufacturerhascloserelationshipwithsuppliersgloballyforitsplantinJapanandMalaysia.Relativelystablecommoditypricesarebenefittothecompany.Competition(Middlerisk):Duetoitshightechnology,competitionwouldbelimited.Plasticlensesarelowercost,butwhilesensingcameralensesareexpanding,theyrequireincreasinglyhigherspecificationofaspherichybridlensesmadeofglassandplastic.However,thenumberofmanufacturersisrelativelylarge.NewEntry(Middlerisk):Duetoitshightechnologymentionedabove,threatofnewentrywouldbelimitedinparticularlyhigh-endcameralenses.Substitution(Low-Middlerisk):Duetocostofproduction,substitutionriskbyplasticlensesislikelyinfuture.However,demandofhigh-specifiedlensesforsensingcamera,glass/plastichybridlenseswouldbeadvantageousforthetimebeing.LEDcarheadlamplensesBuyers(Lowrisk):MaxellasatopmanufacturerhascloserelationshipwithcarLEDlightmakerssuchasKoitoonreliablehighqualityofproducts.

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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/

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Suppliers(Lowrisk):MaxellasatopmanufacturerhascloserelationshipwithsuppliersgloballyforitsplantsinJapan,ChinaandMalaysia.Relativelystablecommoditypricesarebenefittothecompany.Competition(Lowrisk):DuetolimitednumberofLEDmakers,competitionwouldbelimited.Maxellhashighadvantagesofestablishingproductionlinefrommetalmoldtofineprocessingtofinishedproducts.NewEntry(Lowrisk):Duetoitshightechnologyandestablishedproductionsystem,threatofnewentrywouldbemarginal.Substitution(Lowrisk):AstheleadingcompanyofLEDheadlamplenses,itstechnologyishighlyadvanced,asLEDheadlamplensesareleadinginJapantoanyotherregionintheworld.LEDheadlamplensesequippedinJapanesecarsareapproximately40%comparedwith10%inworldwideasof2016.Duetoitstechnologyandcostofproduction,substitutionriskislow.ProjectorsBuyers(Middlerisk):Maxellusesnichemarketstrategy,focusingonhigh-endprojectorsforschoolsandlargesizetheaterorconventioncenters,andsellingglobally,inparticularChinaandAsiaofincreasingdemandmarket.However,duetosofteconomyinChinathesalehashitthepeakinFY03/2016.Suppliers(Middle-Highrisk):Maxellhascloserelationshipwithsuppliersglobally.However,KumamotoquakeinApril2016suspendedshipmentofimagesensortoprojectorsmakers,asonlysupplierSonyprovidessensor.Projectorshavebeenslowershipmentfor1HofFY03/2017.Competition(Middlerisk):SeikoEpsonisastrongcompetitor,coveringallcategoriesofprojectors,whereasMaxellfocusesonhigh-endmarket.High-endmarketisexpandingbutvolumemarketisdecreasing.Thisisatailwindforthecompany.Butthecompetitionislikelytobeintense,asoverallmarketislesslikelytogrow(+2%perannumfrom2014to2017).NewEntry(Middlerisk):Duetoitshighspecification,suchashighbrightness,threatofnewentryintohigh-endmarketwouldberelativelylowerthanvolumemarket.HoweverhightechnologyofMaxell,competitorsarelikelytoenterintohigh-endmarketfromsoftgrowthofvolumemarket.Substitution(Middlerisk):Currentlytherewouldbesomeriskofsubstitutionofprojector,asnewlyadvancedtechnologyimprovesitsfunctionsuchasprojectionmapping.MaxellcontinuesdevelopingnextgenerationprojectorandappliestoitstechnologytootherareasuchasHeadupdisplay.BeautyCareApplianceBuyers(Lowrisk):MaxellasoneofthelargestmakersinJapanprovidingtheconsumerproductstodevelopcustomerneedbackedbyhigherconsciousnessofbeautyandhealthcare.

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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/

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Suppliers(Lowrisk):MaxellasatopmanufacturerhascloserelationshipwithsuppliersinJapan.Relativelystablecommoditypricesarebenefittothecompany.Competition(Low-Middlerisk):Reliablebrandof‘Hitachi’isadvantageforthecompany.Anothertopbrandof‘Panasonic’isalsostrong.Butduetodevelopingvalueaddedonhighspecification,thecompany’sproductsaresupportedbyconsumers.NewEntry(Lowrisk):Duetonatureofluxurygoodsthatareusedbytouchinghis/herownbodydirectly,reliablebrandishighlyadvantageousinJapan.Substitution(Low-Middlerisk):Duetonatureofconsumergoods,substitutionriskbyinnovationislesslikelyslowerthanindustrialgoods.Itwouldtakesometimetospreadreputationofatechnologyforbeautycareamongconsumers.LegacyProductsLithium-IonBatteryforsmartphoneBuyers(Highrisk):Itsmajorcustomerisoneofthelargestsmartphonemakersandtheordercomesaverage2monthinadvanceofshipmentbasedonweeklyforecast.Thelargechangeinquantityoforderinparticularlyfornew-modelsisabigriskforthecompany.Maxellhasimplementeditsfixedcostreductionfor3QofFY03/2015andtriestoreduceitsdependenceonshippingtosmartphonethatisapproximately50%.MaxellheavilyreliedonsmartphoneusebutthedegreeofdependencehasbeendecreasingyearbyyearandtheLithium-Ionbatteryisincreasingtovideogame-usethatrequiressafetyasmanyusersarechildrenfrom4QofFY03/2017.Suppliers(Lowrisk):MaxellasalargemanufacturerhascloserelationshipwithsuppliersgloballyforitsplantinKyotoandChina.Relativelystablecommoditypricesarebenefittothecompany.Competition(Highrisk):MaxellmainlyshiptheKoreancompanymainlysquare-typebatterythatisusedforvolume-zone.Hence,thecompany’sproductsaremorelikelytocomeunderdownwardpressureonpricesthansmartphonesratherthanlaminatedtypebatteryforhigh-enddevices.IncaseofappreciationofJPYrates,itsprofitabilityisdeteriorating.NewEntry(Mid-Highrisk):Duetoitscommoditytypeofproductsmentionedabove,threatofnewentryislikely.Substitution(Highrisk):Inlinewithtechnologydevelopmentandshiftingtohigh-specifieddevices,laminatedbatteryisreplacedfromsquare-typebattery.

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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/

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MagneticTapeBuyers(Highrisk):Inlinewithdecreaseofdemandaswellasmarketsize,bargainingpowerofbuyersisincreasing,asconsumermarkethasalreadydecreased.Suppliers(Low-Middlerisk):MagnetictapewasMaxell’scorebusinessin70sand80s,butduetodecliningproductionvolume,itwouldbemoredifficulttomaintainprocurementatlowercost.Competition(Middlerisk):Despitelimitednumberofmagneticmakers,competitionhasnotbeeneasedandMaxellfinallydecidedtoleavethemarket.FujiFilmwouldhavesurvivorshipbenefit.NewEntry(Lowrisk):Duetodeclinedmarket,nooneentersintothemarket.Substitution(Highrisk):Informationstoragepointofview,magnetictapehassomeadvantagesbuthasbeenalreadyreplacedtonewertechnology.ConsumerGoodsBuyers(Highrisk):Duetocommoditynatureofproducts,thepricescomeunderdownwardpressure.Suppliers(Mid-Highrisk):MaxellissellingtheconsumergoodsasEMS.CurrentdepreciationofJPYwoulddeteriorateitsprofitabilityofimportsintoJapan.Competition(Highrisk):Maxellfinallydecidedtofocusmoreonhigh-endproducts,andplanstoimproveclosetobreak-evenin2HofFY03/2017.Opticaldiskbenefitsfromdeclinemarketasasurvivor.NewEntry(Highrisk):Duetoitscommoditytypeofproductsmentionedabove,threatofnewentryisverylikely.Substitution(Highrisk):Theproductsarematuredanddecliningvolume.Inlinewithtechnologydevelopment,productioncostofnewerproductsisgettinglowerontheincreaseofvolume.InvestmentSummaryBusinessOutlookMETRICALexpectsOPmargintoincreasetohitover6%forFY03/2018(E)ledbycontinuousimprovementofitsbusinessportfolioafteralmostcompletionofrestructuringoflegacyproducts.Inmid-termview,theearningsareexpectedtoaccelerateonsolidgrowthofautomotive3productssuchasTPMbattery,CarcameralensesandLEDcarheadlamplenses,whileProjectorscomesunderpressureonpricecompetitionandBeautycareappliancessoftensafterrapidgrowthforpastafewyears(seemoredetailbelow‘BusinessOutlook’andtablesinAppendix).

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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/

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CompetitivePositioningandRisksHitachiMaxell’scompetitivepositioningshouldbeexaminedeachproductbasisasitsbusinessportfolioismixedbygrowthandlegacyproducts.Growthproductsaremostlyexpectedlow-to-midriskbasedonitshightechnologyandreliablequalityofproducts.Forinstance,TPMSbattery,CarcameralensesandLEDcarheadlamplensesrequirestablequalityonsafetydrivingtechnology.ConsumersbuyingBeautycareappliancesalsowanttobuyreliablebrandandqualityastheyusethemtouchingtheirbodydirectly.Conversely,legacyproductsareinhighrisk.Theyarereliableondecliningmarketandmanyofthemhavebeenmostlyreplacedbynewertechnology.MaxellundertakencostreductionofLithium-ionbatteryforsmartphonein2015andConsumergoodslikeaudioaccessoryanddrybatteryin2016,andfinallywillimplementrestructureofMagnetictapein2016.Overallbusinessportfolioisgettingstrongerandwillbeseendifferentpictureinnearfuture.ValuationMETRICALtriestoassessvaluation,analyzingeachbusinessvaluein3businesssegmentandnetcash.TheSum-of-the-Partsvalue(SOTPNAV)isestimatedJPY2,984ashareforFY03/2018(E)andJPY3,262ashareforFY03/2020(E).Eventhoughexcludinglong-terminvestmentandland,SOTPNAVforFY03/18(E)isJPY2,413andJPY2,691forFY03/2020(E),bothofwhichalsosupportcomparingwithclosingpriceofJPY2,213asofJune6th2017.FinancialStabilityMaxellhasstrongbalancesheetandpositivenetcashandnetworkingcapitalbackedbystablefreecashflow.Asstrengtheningbusinessportfoliothroughrestructure,profitabilityandROEwillmovehighersoon.Infact,OPmarginincreasedhigherthan5%in3Qforthefirsttimesincerelistingin2014,andoperatingcashflowhasalreadyexpandedfor03/2016.Continuousincreasingprofitmarginandcashflowswillstrengthenitsbalancesheet.(seecashflowstatementonAppendix).BusinessOutlookFY03/2017ResultTotalsalewasdown13.5%YoYtoJPY135,116million,butOPwasup3.6%YoYtoJPY7,567million,RPup10.3%YoYtoJPY7,387millionandNProseonextraordinarygainfromlandsale45.6%YoYtoJPY5,724million.NegativeeffectbystrongerJPratesfromUSD/JPY=108fromUSD/JPY=120ayearagoaswellasKumamotoquakeputdownwardpressureontheearningsforthepreviousyear,butgrowthofautomotiveusecameralenses,LEDheadlamplensesandTPMSbatterypushedtheprofitshigher.FullYearFY03/2018OutlookbyCompanyMaxellpostedoutlookforfullyearFY03/2018.Saleisexpectedtoincrease3.6%YoYtoJPY140,000million,OPup5.7%YoYtoJPY8,000millionandNPdown12.6%YoYtoJPY5,000respectively.

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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/

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DividendwillremainflatatJPY18ashareforsemiannually(annuallyJPY36ashare).FullYearFY03/2018byMETRICALMETRICALexpectssaletoslightlymissbutprofitsareinlinewiththecompanyguidanceledbycontinuouslysolidgrowthofautomotive3growthproducts.Saleisexpectedtobeflat-0.4%YoYtoJPY134,521million,OPincrease6.3%YoYtoJPY8,047millionandRPup8.9%YoYtoJPY8,048millionandNPup27.7%YoYtoJPY5,020respectively(seetablesbelowofByProductsAnalysisandfinancialstatementsinAppendix).Mid-termProjectionFY03/2020byMETRICALMETRICALexpectsgrowthproductstomaintainsolidexpansionforFY03/2020,asTPMS,CarsensingcameraandLEDcarheadlamplensesareverylikelytokeepstrongdemand(seebarchartontheleft).Theseproductsarealsoexpectedtomaintainprofitmarginsduetothestrongcompetitiveposition.Ontheotherhand,legacyproductsareexpectedtodecreasesale(seebarchartontheleft).AssumingcurrencyratesuchasUSD/JPYstayingatcurrentrate,weakerJPYisexpectedtohelpLithium-Ionbatteryforsmartphonespositively,butimportofconsumergoodssuchasAVaccessoryareaffectednegatively.Lithium-Ionbatteryforsmartphonecontinuesdecreasingbutanotherdemandtovideo-gameareincreasingrightnowandthisraisesprofitstemporarily.Also,drybatterythatisMaxell’scoreproductssinceitsfoundationwouldneedfurthersolutiontopickuptheprofitmargin,althoughtheearningsareprojectedtorecovertobreak-evenforFY03/2017.ValuationMaxellsharepricehasbeenstayingatdiscountallthetimesinceIissuedBuyrecommendationinSeptember2015.Thebackgroundofundervaluedpricewouldbeduetosomedifficultytofindatruepictureofthecompanybyonlyaglanceattheincomestatement,astotalsalehasstayedaroundJPY140billionsincerelistedin2014andOPmarginhaspulledlowerbylosingmoneyoflegacybusiness.However,thegamehasbeenchangedandthefuturegrowthlooksmuchclearer.OPMrecoveredincrementallyanddrasticsolutionwouldbefinallyimplementedonMagneticTapeforFY03/2017.Somehowissueonall3-legacyproductshavebeenimplementedandthelosseswouldnolongeraffectitsoverallearningssignificantlyandgoingforwardgrowthproductswillacceleratetheearningsgoingforward.Inthispoint,thesharepriceshouldpositivelyappreciateandmovehighertoitsrealvalue.Sum-of-thePartsValueSum-of-the-Parts(SOTP)valueisbusinessvalueofeachbusinesssegmentthatisnormalizedEBIT,EBITDAandFCFfromFY03/2014toFY03/2018(E)bymultiples,addedtonetcashandlong-terminvestmentsecuritiesandland.SOTPvalueforFY03/2018(E)isestimatedtobeJPY2,984ashare(25%discountofclosingpriceofJune6th2017).SOTPvalueforFY03/2020(E)is

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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/

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estimatedtobeJPY3,262ashare(32%discountofclosingpriceofJune6th2017),asshowntablebelow.EventhoughsubtractingLTinvestmentandland,theNAVisJPY2,413forFY03/2018(E)andJPY2,691ashareforFY03/2020(E).ThesharepriceasofJune6th2017islowerthanbothvaluesabove.Additionally,netcashisexpectedtobeJPY996ashareforFY03/2017(E)andJPY1,101ashareforFY03/2020(E).IfMaxellusescashonhandforfuturegrowthsuccessfully,theearningsandvaluewillmovefurtherhigher.Coincidentally,MaxellpostedacquisitionofimagingbusinessfromRenesasSemiconductorPackage&TestSolutionsCo.,Ltd.ThisisincludedinMaxell’sIndustrialMaterialbusinesssegmentandishopedtoboostthebusiness.

EV/EBITDAEV/EBITDAforFY03/2018(E)isestimatedtobe6.2xandwilldeclineto4.4xforFY03/2020(E).AdjustedEV/EBITDAthatincludeslong-terminvestmentandlandwillgodownto2.8xforFY03/2017(E)and1.7xforFY03/2020(E).

FinancialAnalysisAsshownkeyfinancialratiosintablebelowandfinancialstatementssummaryinAppendix,Maxellhasstrongbalancesheet,asnetcashandnetworkingcapitalarepositivebackedbyrelativelystablefreecashflowoveryears.Ontheotherhand,profitabilityisnothighenough.LowerROEiscausedbylowerfinancialleverageandinparticularlowerprofitmargin.Moreover,OPmarginhasnotincreasedsufficiently,butOperatingCashflowgeneratedJPY12billionfor03/2017andisexpectedtomaintainsolidgoingforward(seecashflowstatementonAppendix).

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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/

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InvestmentRisksGlobaleconomicdownturn(Likely,MiddleRisk)Incaseofglobalrecession,thebusinesswillbesoftastheearningsslowedfor2HofFY03/2016duetodeclineinbusinessconfidenceledbyChina’seconomy.Projectorssufferedfromtheslowdowntemporarilyatthattime,butinmid-termview3growthproductsareexpectedtocontinueexpandinginautomotivearea,asADASandsafetydrivingtechnologywillbeaccelerating.Softenedmarketofsmartphone(Likely,Low-MiddleRisk)Lithium-ionbatteryforsmartphoneisdecelerating.Currentlytheearningsareunderbreak-evenandfurtherdrasticsolutionisrequired,astheproductisusedforlow-to-middlezonedevices.However,thecompanyhastriedtodecreasedependenceonsmartphoneanddiversifytootherusagesuchasvideo-games.StrongJPYrate(Likely,Low-MiddleRisk)CurrencyriskismostlyonexporttoLithium-ionbatteryforsmartphone.Butthesaleisgettingsmallerby10%-20%perannumandtheimpactwillbesmalleryear-by-year.Additionalcost-reductioninthisproductwouldbeinevitablesooninanycase.OwnershipofHitachi(likely,Low-MiddleRisk)HitachiLtd.reduceditsownershipfrom20.52%to14.76%butwillmaintainco-workingofbasicresearchonfuturetechnologieswithMaxellandwillholdcontractofproducingappliancesforHitachibrand.MaxellsharepricehasoncetumbledjustafterthenewsreleasedthatHitachisolditsownershipinMarch2017.MaxellislikelytoremoveHitachifromitscompanynameinOctoberbutwillkeepalliancewithHitachiineachcaseofbusinesspartnershipgoingforward.Thiswouldhelpthecompanymorefocusonitsshareholdersotherthanformerparentcompany.

AkiMatsumoto,[email protected]

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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/

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Appendix

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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/

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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/

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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/

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Thisreportisforinformationpurposeonlyandisbasedoncurrentpublicinformationthatweconsiderreliable,butwedonotrepresentitisaccurateorcomplete,anditshouldnotbereliedonassuch.Althoughweseektoupdateourresearchasappropriate,thecontentsmaybedifferentfromthemostrecentfactasthereportispublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriate.Thisresearchisnotanoffertosellorthesolicitationofanoffertobuyanysecurityinanyjurisdictionwheresuchanofferorsolicitationwouldbeillegal.Itdoesnotconstituteapersonalrecommendationortakeintoaccounttheparticularinvestmentobjectives,financialsituations,orneedsofindividualclients.Thepriceandvalueofinvestmentsreferredtointhisresearchandtheincomefromthemmayfluctuate.Pastperformanceisnotaguidetofutureperformance,futurereturnsarenotguaranteed,andalossoforiginalcapitalmayoccur.Theauthorofthisreportisnotinrelationofseriousconflictofinterestwiththereportedcompany.