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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/
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Date:6/9/2017
HitachiMaxell(6810,JP) Recommendation:OutperformExchange:TokyoStockExchange1 SharePrice:JPY2,213(6/6/2017)Sector:ElectricParts TargetPrice:JPY2,984MarketCap:JPY118.0billion P/E:23.4x(8/17CE)P/B:1.0x(3/17act) Div.Yield:1.6%(3/17CE)
HighlightMETRICALmaintains‘Outperform’andraisestargetpricetofromJPY2,826toJPY2,984.Maxellincreasesitsprofitability,improvingitsbusinessportfolioforafewyears.OPmarginincrementallyrosefrom3.3%forFY03/2015to4.7%forFY03/2016and5.6%forFY03/2017andexpectedtoriseto6.0%forFY03/2018(E)byMETRICALforecast(5.7%byCompanyguidance),whilesalesarelikelytoremainstandstill.Automotive3productssuchasTPMSusebattery,carcameralensesandcarLEDheadlamplensesareexpectedtocontinueexpanding.ThecashflowsgeneratedfromsuchgrowthproductswillloweritsvaluationsuchasEV/EBITDAandSum-Of-the-Partsvalue.Thesoftsalesexpectationkeepseyesofinvestorsoffthesharesbutshouldbefocusedonitschangeofbusinessportfolio,whichshouldaccelerateimprovingprofitabilityto6.8%forFY03/2019(E)and7.4%forFT03/2020(E)inOPMafterrestructuringoflegacybusinesssuchasmagnetictapes.BusinessDescriptionHitachiMaxellwasestablishedin1961andhasexpandeditsbusinessfrombatteryandmagnetictapeofitscoreproductssincefounded.MaxellhasoncebecomeawhollyownedsubsidiaryofHitachiLtd.in2010andwenttopublicagain,relistedinTokyoStockExchangein2014afterstrengtheningitsbusinesstoshifttoBtoBfromBtoC(see2piechartsontheleft).Thecurrentbusinessisdividedto3segmentsofEnergy,IndustrialMaterialandElectronicAppliance/ConsumerProduct.SalesandOPbybusinesssegmentareshown2barchartsontheleft.EnergyEnergysegmentconsistsmainlyoflithium-ionrechargeablebatteriesformainlysmartphones,microbatteriesandotherbatteryproducts.Ofmicro-batteries,heat-resistantcoin-typelithiummanganesedioxidebatteriesareagrowthdriverusedfortirepressuremonitoringsystems(TPMS).SaleandOPofthissegmentaccounts26%and27%forFY03/2017.IndustrialMaterialIndustrialMaterialconsistsof2growthproductsthatsupportautomotivetechnologyashigh-precisionlensunitsforcarcameraandLEDcarheadlamplenses.OtherproductsincludeAdhesivetapeusedforpacking,protection,andbuilding,andisalsocombinedwithnewfunctionsforuseinthesemiconductormanufacturingprocessandinelectronics,andMagnetictape.SaleandOPofthissegmentaccounts32%and39%forFY03/2017.
METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/
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ElectronicAppliance/ConsumerProductElectronicApplianceandConsumerProductsellssmallelectricalequipment,accessoriesandrecordingmediaanddrybatteriesforconsumermarket.ProjectorsandBeautycareapplianceshavebeendrivingearningsofthesegment.Projectorsareprovidedtocompaniesandeducationalinstitutions.SaleandOPofthissegmentaccounts42%and34%forFY03/2017.IndustryOverviewandCompetitivePositioningIndustryOverviewMaxellisshiftingfromBtoCtoBtoB,buteachsegmentiscomprisedofmixedportfolioofgrowthandlegacyproducts.2barchartsontheleftshowsalesofgrowthandlegacyproductsforFY03/2015andFY03/2017respectively.Ofgrowthproducts,heat-resistantcoin-typelithiummicrobatteryisexpanding,asanincreasingnumberofcountrieslegislatealawforequippingTPMS(TirePressureMonitoringSystem)inacar.TPMSbatterymarketintheworldisexpectedtogrow11%perannumfrom150millionunitsfor2015to219millionunitsfor2020.CarcameralensesareexpectedtobenefitfromADAS(AdvancedDrivingAssistantSystem)thatwillreplacefromcarviewcameratocar‘sensing’camera.Forinstance,morethan10lensesareusedforsensingcamerainhigh-endcarmodels.Carcamera(viewcamera+sensingcamera)isexpectedtoincreasefrom16%perannumfrom65millionunitsfor2014to160millionunitsfor2020.LEDcarheadlamplensesarealsogrowingonincreasingdemandoflowelectricityconsumptionlightsinadditionto‘DaytimeRunningLight’legislatedinEuropeandU.S.ThenumberofcarsequippedLEDcarheadlamplensesareexpectedtogrow5%for2014tomorethan20%for2020inworldwide.Projectorshavegrown,focusingonhigh-endmarketformainlyeducationinstitutions.BeautyCareappliancesmaintainupbeatduetogrowingsaletoforeignvisitorsaswellasincreasingdemandofhealthandbeautyconsciousofconsumers.Conversely,Lithium-IonBatteryforsmartphonehasgrownslowerinlinewithsoftgrowthofsmartphonedevices.MagneticTapehasdeclinedduetosubstitutionbynewertechnology.ConsumerAppliancessuchasaudioaccessoryanddrybatteryhavedeterioratedprofitabilityduetocommodityproducts.CompetitivePositioningCompetitivePositioningisanalyzedeachgrowthandlegacyproductsin5Forces.GrowthProductsMicroBatteryforTPMSBuyers(Lowrisk):Maxellasatopmanufacturerhascloserelationshipwithglobal5majorTPMSmakersthroughjointdevelopment,havingnormallylong-termcontractforitsproductshipment.GoingforwardincreasingnumberofcountriesarelikelytorequireTPMSinautomobilesbylaw.Chinawillscheduletolegislateitin2019.
METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/
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Suppliers(Lowrisk):MaxellasatopmanufacturerhascloserelationshipwithsuppliersgloballyforitsplantinOno,Japan.Commoditypricesarecurrentlyrelativelystable.Competition(Lowrisk):Duetolimitednumberofheat-resistantcoin-typelithiummicrobatteryandmarketexpansion,competitionismoderate.CompetitorsarePanasonicandSony.NewEntry(Lowrisk):Mainlyduetotechnologybarrierthatrequiresstablequalityunder-40degreesCelsiusto+125degreesC,newentranceislimited.Substitution(Middlerisk):Maxellkeepsdevelopingtechnology,providingbatteryfordirectattachedontiretypeTPMSmodulethatenablesittolinkagewithABSsystem.TPMSislikelytoadvanceinlinewithsafedrivingtechnology,although‘indirect’typeTPMSwouldbeathreatfor‘direct’typemakerssuchasMaxell.ButdirecttypeTPMSwillbeappliedtosensingofroadsurfaceinfuture.CarcameralensesBuyers(Lowrisk):MaxellasoneofWW3manufacturerhascloserelationshipwithcarcameramakersonreliablehighqualityofproducts.Sensingcamerarequiresfarhigherqualityinwiderange,resolution,heatresistanceandwaterrepellency.Suppliers(Lowrisk):MaxellasatopmanufacturerhascloserelationshipwithsuppliersgloballyforitsplantinJapanandMalaysia.Relativelystablecommoditypricesarebenefittothecompany.Competition(Middlerisk):Duetoitshightechnology,competitionwouldbelimited.Plasticlensesarelowercost,butwhilesensingcameralensesareexpanding,theyrequireincreasinglyhigherspecificationofaspherichybridlensesmadeofglassandplastic.However,thenumberofmanufacturersisrelativelylarge.NewEntry(Middlerisk):Duetoitshightechnologymentionedabove,threatofnewentrywouldbelimitedinparticularlyhigh-endcameralenses.Substitution(Low-Middlerisk):Duetocostofproduction,substitutionriskbyplasticlensesislikelyinfuture.However,demandofhigh-specifiedlensesforsensingcamera,glass/plastichybridlenseswouldbeadvantageousforthetimebeing.LEDcarheadlamplensesBuyers(Lowrisk):MaxellasatopmanufacturerhascloserelationshipwithcarLEDlightmakerssuchasKoitoonreliablehighqualityofproducts.
METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/
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Suppliers(Lowrisk):MaxellasatopmanufacturerhascloserelationshipwithsuppliersgloballyforitsplantsinJapan,ChinaandMalaysia.Relativelystablecommoditypricesarebenefittothecompany.Competition(Lowrisk):DuetolimitednumberofLEDmakers,competitionwouldbelimited.Maxellhashighadvantagesofestablishingproductionlinefrommetalmoldtofineprocessingtofinishedproducts.NewEntry(Lowrisk):Duetoitshightechnologyandestablishedproductionsystem,threatofnewentrywouldbemarginal.Substitution(Lowrisk):AstheleadingcompanyofLEDheadlamplenses,itstechnologyishighlyadvanced,asLEDheadlamplensesareleadinginJapantoanyotherregionintheworld.LEDheadlamplensesequippedinJapanesecarsareapproximately40%comparedwith10%inworldwideasof2016.Duetoitstechnologyandcostofproduction,substitutionriskislow.ProjectorsBuyers(Middlerisk):Maxellusesnichemarketstrategy,focusingonhigh-endprojectorsforschoolsandlargesizetheaterorconventioncenters,andsellingglobally,inparticularChinaandAsiaofincreasingdemandmarket.However,duetosofteconomyinChinathesalehashitthepeakinFY03/2016.Suppliers(Middle-Highrisk):Maxellhascloserelationshipwithsuppliersglobally.However,KumamotoquakeinApril2016suspendedshipmentofimagesensortoprojectorsmakers,asonlysupplierSonyprovidessensor.Projectorshavebeenslowershipmentfor1HofFY03/2017.Competition(Middlerisk):SeikoEpsonisastrongcompetitor,coveringallcategoriesofprojectors,whereasMaxellfocusesonhigh-endmarket.High-endmarketisexpandingbutvolumemarketisdecreasing.Thisisatailwindforthecompany.Butthecompetitionislikelytobeintense,asoverallmarketislesslikelytogrow(+2%perannumfrom2014to2017).NewEntry(Middlerisk):Duetoitshighspecification,suchashighbrightness,threatofnewentryintohigh-endmarketwouldberelativelylowerthanvolumemarket.HoweverhightechnologyofMaxell,competitorsarelikelytoenterintohigh-endmarketfromsoftgrowthofvolumemarket.Substitution(Middlerisk):Currentlytherewouldbesomeriskofsubstitutionofprojector,asnewlyadvancedtechnologyimprovesitsfunctionsuchasprojectionmapping.MaxellcontinuesdevelopingnextgenerationprojectorandappliestoitstechnologytootherareasuchasHeadupdisplay.BeautyCareApplianceBuyers(Lowrisk):MaxellasoneofthelargestmakersinJapanprovidingtheconsumerproductstodevelopcustomerneedbackedbyhigherconsciousnessofbeautyandhealthcare.
METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/
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Suppliers(Lowrisk):MaxellasatopmanufacturerhascloserelationshipwithsuppliersinJapan.Relativelystablecommoditypricesarebenefittothecompany.Competition(Low-Middlerisk):Reliablebrandof‘Hitachi’isadvantageforthecompany.Anothertopbrandof‘Panasonic’isalsostrong.Butduetodevelopingvalueaddedonhighspecification,thecompany’sproductsaresupportedbyconsumers.NewEntry(Lowrisk):Duetonatureofluxurygoodsthatareusedbytouchinghis/herownbodydirectly,reliablebrandishighlyadvantageousinJapan.Substitution(Low-Middlerisk):Duetonatureofconsumergoods,substitutionriskbyinnovationislesslikelyslowerthanindustrialgoods.Itwouldtakesometimetospreadreputationofatechnologyforbeautycareamongconsumers.LegacyProductsLithium-IonBatteryforsmartphoneBuyers(Highrisk):Itsmajorcustomerisoneofthelargestsmartphonemakersandtheordercomesaverage2monthinadvanceofshipmentbasedonweeklyforecast.Thelargechangeinquantityoforderinparticularlyfornew-modelsisabigriskforthecompany.Maxellhasimplementeditsfixedcostreductionfor3QofFY03/2015andtriestoreduceitsdependenceonshippingtosmartphonethatisapproximately50%.MaxellheavilyreliedonsmartphoneusebutthedegreeofdependencehasbeendecreasingyearbyyearandtheLithium-Ionbatteryisincreasingtovideogame-usethatrequiressafetyasmanyusersarechildrenfrom4QofFY03/2017.Suppliers(Lowrisk):MaxellasalargemanufacturerhascloserelationshipwithsuppliersgloballyforitsplantinKyotoandChina.Relativelystablecommoditypricesarebenefittothecompany.Competition(Highrisk):MaxellmainlyshiptheKoreancompanymainlysquare-typebatterythatisusedforvolume-zone.Hence,thecompany’sproductsaremorelikelytocomeunderdownwardpressureonpricesthansmartphonesratherthanlaminatedtypebatteryforhigh-enddevices.IncaseofappreciationofJPYrates,itsprofitabilityisdeteriorating.NewEntry(Mid-Highrisk):Duetoitscommoditytypeofproductsmentionedabove,threatofnewentryislikely.Substitution(Highrisk):Inlinewithtechnologydevelopmentandshiftingtohigh-specifieddevices,laminatedbatteryisreplacedfromsquare-typebattery.
METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/
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MagneticTapeBuyers(Highrisk):Inlinewithdecreaseofdemandaswellasmarketsize,bargainingpowerofbuyersisincreasing,asconsumermarkethasalreadydecreased.Suppliers(Low-Middlerisk):MagnetictapewasMaxell’scorebusinessin70sand80s,butduetodecliningproductionvolume,itwouldbemoredifficulttomaintainprocurementatlowercost.Competition(Middlerisk):Despitelimitednumberofmagneticmakers,competitionhasnotbeeneasedandMaxellfinallydecidedtoleavethemarket.FujiFilmwouldhavesurvivorshipbenefit.NewEntry(Lowrisk):Duetodeclinedmarket,nooneentersintothemarket.Substitution(Highrisk):Informationstoragepointofview,magnetictapehassomeadvantagesbuthasbeenalreadyreplacedtonewertechnology.ConsumerGoodsBuyers(Highrisk):Duetocommoditynatureofproducts,thepricescomeunderdownwardpressure.Suppliers(Mid-Highrisk):MaxellissellingtheconsumergoodsasEMS.CurrentdepreciationofJPYwoulddeteriorateitsprofitabilityofimportsintoJapan.Competition(Highrisk):Maxellfinallydecidedtofocusmoreonhigh-endproducts,andplanstoimproveclosetobreak-evenin2HofFY03/2017.Opticaldiskbenefitsfromdeclinemarketasasurvivor.NewEntry(Highrisk):Duetoitscommoditytypeofproductsmentionedabove,threatofnewentryisverylikely.Substitution(Highrisk):Theproductsarematuredanddecliningvolume.Inlinewithtechnologydevelopment,productioncostofnewerproductsisgettinglowerontheincreaseofvolume.InvestmentSummaryBusinessOutlookMETRICALexpectsOPmargintoincreasetohitover6%forFY03/2018(E)ledbycontinuousimprovementofitsbusinessportfolioafteralmostcompletionofrestructuringoflegacyproducts.Inmid-termview,theearningsareexpectedtoaccelerateonsolidgrowthofautomotive3productssuchasTPMbattery,CarcameralensesandLEDcarheadlamplenses,whileProjectorscomesunderpressureonpricecompetitionandBeautycareappliancessoftensafterrapidgrowthforpastafewyears(seemoredetailbelow‘BusinessOutlook’andtablesinAppendix).
METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/
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CompetitivePositioningandRisksHitachiMaxell’scompetitivepositioningshouldbeexaminedeachproductbasisasitsbusinessportfolioismixedbygrowthandlegacyproducts.Growthproductsaremostlyexpectedlow-to-midriskbasedonitshightechnologyandreliablequalityofproducts.Forinstance,TPMSbattery,CarcameralensesandLEDcarheadlamplensesrequirestablequalityonsafetydrivingtechnology.ConsumersbuyingBeautycareappliancesalsowanttobuyreliablebrandandqualityastheyusethemtouchingtheirbodydirectly.Conversely,legacyproductsareinhighrisk.Theyarereliableondecliningmarketandmanyofthemhavebeenmostlyreplacedbynewertechnology.MaxellundertakencostreductionofLithium-ionbatteryforsmartphonein2015andConsumergoodslikeaudioaccessoryanddrybatteryin2016,andfinallywillimplementrestructureofMagnetictapein2016.Overallbusinessportfolioisgettingstrongerandwillbeseendifferentpictureinnearfuture.ValuationMETRICALtriestoassessvaluation,analyzingeachbusinessvaluein3businesssegmentandnetcash.TheSum-of-the-Partsvalue(SOTPNAV)isestimatedJPY2,984ashareforFY03/2018(E)andJPY3,262ashareforFY03/2020(E).Eventhoughexcludinglong-terminvestmentandland,SOTPNAVforFY03/18(E)isJPY2,413andJPY2,691forFY03/2020(E),bothofwhichalsosupportcomparingwithclosingpriceofJPY2,213asofJune6th2017.FinancialStabilityMaxellhasstrongbalancesheetandpositivenetcashandnetworkingcapitalbackedbystablefreecashflow.Asstrengtheningbusinessportfoliothroughrestructure,profitabilityandROEwillmovehighersoon.Infact,OPmarginincreasedhigherthan5%in3Qforthefirsttimesincerelistingin2014,andoperatingcashflowhasalreadyexpandedfor03/2016.Continuousincreasingprofitmarginandcashflowswillstrengthenitsbalancesheet.(seecashflowstatementonAppendix).BusinessOutlookFY03/2017ResultTotalsalewasdown13.5%YoYtoJPY135,116million,butOPwasup3.6%YoYtoJPY7,567million,RPup10.3%YoYtoJPY7,387millionandNProseonextraordinarygainfromlandsale45.6%YoYtoJPY5,724million.NegativeeffectbystrongerJPratesfromUSD/JPY=108fromUSD/JPY=120ayearagoaswellasKumamotoquakeputdownwardpressureontheearningsforthepreviousyear,butgrowthofautomotiveusecameralenses,LEDheadlamplensesandTPMSbatterypushedtheprofitshigher.FullYearFY03/2018OutlookbyCompanyMaxellpostedoutlookforfullyearFY03/2018.Saleisexpectedtoincrease3.6%YoYtoJPY140,000million,OPup5.7%YoYtoJPY8,000millionandNPdown12.6%YoYtoJPY5,000respectively.
METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/
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DividendwillremainflatatJPY18ashareforsemiannually(annuallyJPY36ashare).FullYearFY03/2018byMETRICALMETRICALexpectssaletoslightlymissbutprofitsareinlinewiththecompanyguidanceledbycontinuouslysolidgrowthofautomotive3growthproducts.Saleisexpectedtobeflat-0.4%YoYtoJPY134,521million,OPincrease6.3%YoYtoJPY8,047millionandRPup8.9%YoYtoJPY8,048millionandNPup27.7%YoYtoJPY5,020respectively(seetablesbelowofByProductsAnalysisandfinancialstatementsinAppendix).Mid-termProjectionFY03/2020byMETRICALMETRICALexpectsgrowthproductstomaintainsolidexpansionforFY03/2020,asTPMS,CarsensingcameraandLEDcarheadlamplensesareverylikelytokeepstrongdemand(seebarchartontheleft).Theseproductsarealsoexpectedtomaintainprofitmarginsduetothestrongcompetitiveposition.Ontheotherhand,legacyproductsareexpectedtodecreasesale(seebarchartontheleft).AssumingcurrencyratesuchasUSD/JPYstayingatcurrentrate,weakerJPYisexpectedtohelpLithium-Ionbatteryforsmartphonespositively,butimportofconsumergoodssuchasAVaccessoryareaffectednegatively.Lithium-Ionbatteryforsmartphonecontinuesdecreasingbutanotherdemandtovideo-gameareincreasingrightnowandthisraisesprofitstemporarily.Also,drybatterythatisMaxell’scoreproductssinceitsfoundationwouldneedfurthersolutiontopickuptheprofitmargin,althoughtheearningsareprojectedtorecovertobreak-evenforFY03/2017.ValuationMaxellsharepricehasbeenstayingatdiscountallthetimesinceIissuedBuyrecommendationinSeptember2015.Thebackgroundofundervaluedpricewouldbeduetosomedifficultytofindatruepictureofthecompanybyonlyaglanceattheincomestatement,astotalsalehasstayedaroundJPY140billionsincerelistedin2014andOPmarginhaspulledlowerbylosingmoneyoflegacybusiness.However,thegamehasbeenchangedandthefuturegrowthlooksmuchclearer.OPMrecoveredincrementallyanddrasticsolutionwouldbefinallyimplementedonMagneticTapeforFY03/2017.Somehowissueonall3-legacyproductshavebeenimplementedandthelosseswouldnolongeraffectitsoverallearningssignificantlyandgoingforwardgrowthproductswillacceleratetheearningsgoingforward.Inthispoint,thesharepriceshouldpositivelyappreciateandmovehighertoitsrealvalue.Sum-of-thePartsValueSum-of-the-Parts(SOTP)valueisbusinessvalueofeachbusinesssegmentthatisnormalizedEBIT,EBITDAandFCFfromFY03/2014toFY03/2018(E)bymultiples,addedtonetcashandlong-terminvestmentsecuritiesandland.SOTPvalueforFY03/2018(E)isestimatedtobeJPY2,984ashare(25%discountofclosingpriceofJune6th2017).SOTPvalueforFY03/2020(E)is
METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/
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estimatedtobeJPY3,262ashare(32%discountofclosingpriceofJune6th2017),asshowntablebelow.EventhoughsubtractingLTinvestmentandland,theNAVisJPY2,413forFY03/2018(E)andJPY2,691ashareforFY03/2020(E).ThesharepriceasofJune6th2017islowerthanbothvaluesabove.Additionally,netcashisexpectedtobeJPY996ashareforFY03/2017(E)andJPY1,101ashareforFY03/2020(E).IfMaxellusescashonhandforfuturegrowthsuccessfully,theearningsandvaluewillmovefurtherhigher.Coincidentally,MaxellpostedacquisitionofimagingbusinessfromRenesasSemiconductorPackage&TestSolutionsCo.,Ltd.ThisisincludedinMaxell’sIndustrialMaterialbusinesssegmentandishopedtoboostthebusiness.
EV/EBITDAEV/EBITDAforFY03/2018(E)isestimatedtobe6.2xandwilldeclineto4.4xforFY03/2020(E).AdjustedEV/EBITDAthatincludeslong-terminvestmentandlandwillgodownto2.8xforFY03/2017(E)and1.7xforFY03/2020(E).
FinancialAnalysisAsshownkeyfinancialratiosintablebelowandfinancialstatementssummaryinAppendix,Maxellhasstrongbalancesheet,asnetcashandnetworkingcapitalarepositivebackedbyrelativelystablefreecashflowoveryears.Ontheotherhand,profitabilityisnothighenough.LowerROEiscausedbylowerfinancialleverageandinparticularlowerprofitmargin.Moreover,OPmarginhasnotincreasedsufficiently,butOperatingCashflowgeneratedJPY12billionfor03/2017andisexpectedtomaintainsolidgoingforward(seecashflowstatementonAppendix).
METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/
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InvestmentRisksGlobaleconomicdownturn(Likely,MiddleRisk)Incaseofglobalrecession,thebusinesswillbesoftastheearningsslowedfor2HofFY03/2016duetodeclineinbusinessconfidenceledbyChina’seconomy.Projectorssufferedfromtheslowdowntemporarilyatthattime,butinmid-termview3growthproductsareexpectedtocontinueexpandinginautomotivearea,asADASandsafetydrivingtechnologywillbeaccelerating.Softenedmarketofsmartphone(Likely,Low-MiddleRisk)Lithium-ionbatteryforsmartphoneisdecelerating.Currentlytheearningsareunderbreak-evenandfurtherdrasticsolutionisrequired,astheproductisusedforlow-to-middlezonedevices.However,thecompanyhastriedtodecreasedependenceonsmartphoneanddiversifytootherusagesuchasvideo-games.StrongJPYrate(Likely,Low-MiddleRisk)CurrencyriskismostlyonexporttoLithium-ionbatteryforsmartphone.Butthesaleisgettingsmallerby10%-20%perannumandtheimpactwillbesmalleryear-by-year.Additionalcost-reductioninthisproductwouldbeinevitablesooninanycase.OwnershipofHitachi(likely,Low-MiddleRisk)HitachiLtd.reduceditsownershipfrom20.52%to14.76%butwillmaintainco-workingofbasicresearchonfuturetechnologieswithMaxellandwillholdcontractofproducingappliancesforHitachibrand.MaxellsharepricehasoncetumbledjustafterthenewsreleasedthatHitachisolditsownershipinMarch2017.MaxellislikelytoremoveHitachifromitscompanynameinOctoberbutwillkeepalliancewithHitachiineachcaseofbusinesspartnershipgoingforward.Thiswouldhelpthecompanymorefocusonitsshareholdersotherthanformerparentcompany.
AkiMatsumoto,[email protected]
METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/
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Appendix
METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/
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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/
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METRICAL INC. Suite 3113, 28-10 Ebisu 2 chome, Shibuya-Ku, Tokyo 150-0013 Japan Phone: +81-3-4405-6223 Email: [email protected] http://www.metrical.co.jp/
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Thisreportisforinformationpurposeonlyandisbasedoncurrentpublicinformationthatweconsiderreliable,butwedonotrepresentitisaccurateorcomplete,anditshouldnotbereliedonassuch.Althoughweseektoupdateourresearchasappropriate,thecontentsmaybedifferentfromthemostrecentfactasthereportispublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriate.Thisresearchisnotanoffertosellorthesolicitationofanoffertobuyanysecurityinanyjurisdictionwheresuchanofferorsolicitationwouldbeillegal.Itdoesnotconstituteapersonalrecommendationortakeintoaccounttheparticularinvestmentobjectives,financialsituations,orneedsofindividualclients.Thepriceandvalueofinvestmentsreferredtointhisresearchandtheincomefromthemmayfluctuate.Pastperformanceisnotaguidetofutureperformance,futurereturnsarenotguaranteed,andalossoforiginalcapitalmayoccur.Theauthorofthisreportisnotinrelationofseriousconflictofinterestwiththereportedcompany.