Data Services...Solar Resource Data (Historial and Near Real-Time Irradiation Data) Data Quality and Validation Results A detailed look into Europe with a dense network of over 300

Data ServicesThe Power of Big Data

2 | 3E Document confidentiality classification: general public

Outline

FUTURE OUTLOOK: The power of big data

1. Introduction

2. Historical & real-time solar & wind resource data

3. Monitoring Solar & Wind Plant Operations

4. Advanced Tools for Profitable Operations

1. Accurate resource data

2. Real-Time Power Forecasting Tools


Big Data


Collecting, organizing, and analyzing large sets of data

• Better decision making

• Cost reduction

• Improved products & services


Data Services:Historical and near real-time Solar & Wind resource data


Solar Resource Data (Historial and Near Real-Time Irradiation Data)Data Sources Geographical & Temporal Coverage

Data Source Spatial resolution Temporal coverage Time resolution

Meteosat (PRIME) - CPP algorithm 3 km2 From 2004 to date

15 minutes

GOES EAST & WEST Extended

Northern Hemisphere & Full Disk

4 km2 From 2014 to date*

Meteosat (IODC) – CPP algorithm

(Available in Q3 2018)

3 km2 From 2017 to date

* Continuously expanding down to 2009

Access to this data:

• Fully available through SynaptiQ at no extra

cost

• Sold also separately through our website

(https://solardata.3e.eu) and through API

Service (CSV and JSON formats)

https://solardata.3e.eu/


Wind Resource Data

Available Data

Sources

Temporal coverage

MERRA2 1980 to 3 weeks ago

ERA-Interim 1979 to 3 months ago

ERA5 2010 to 3 months ago

CFSR 1979 to 2010

CFSv2 2010 to date


Wind Resource Modelling

Outputs:

• Wind atlases (regional/local scales)

• Time series (regional scale)

Generation of simulated wind climates at both regional and local scales


Need for Accurate Resource Data

• Long term yield assessment

➢ Long term average

➢ Yearly variation

• Performance evaluation

➢ Yearly reference yield

➢ Monthly reference yield

• Fault detection

➢ Daily reference yield

➢ Hourly reference yield


Need for Accurate Irradiation Data

On-site Irradiance sensors can have

excellent accuracy

But in reality:

• Sensor type

• Dome / Flat

• Si / Thermopile

• Soiling

• Shading

• Orientation

• Degradation

• Availability

• …Regular validation of sensors is a necessity!


Need for Accurate Resource Data

Long-term variability and trends


Need for Accurate Irradiation Data

Risk assessment for business case (exceedance probabilities calculation)

Over / under estimation of risk


Overview of solar irradiation data sources



Data Services: Satellite-Based Solar Resource Data

State-of-the-art models using Cloud Physical Properties (CPP)

✓ Unambiguous Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) calculation

✓ Detection of production deviations faster for a more profitable

operation

Bankable yield assessments and profitable operation


Satellite Irradiation Data

Meteosat-8/9/10 (MSG) satellite imagery

• SEVIRI instrument

• Coverage: Europe, Africa, America

• Temporal resolution: 15 min

• Nadir spatial resolution: 3 x 3 km²

• Start: January 2004


Solar Resource Data (Historial and Near Real-Time Irradiation Data)Data Quality and Validation Results

A detailed look into Europe with a dense network of over 300 meteo stations shows that the percentage difference

between satellite and high accuracy on-site measured data over one year is overall bellow ±2.5%


Solar Index MapsVariability of Solar Resource Across Continents

Follow closely how the solar resource varies compared with the long-term average and spot fluctuations of the solar

resource impacting thousands of PV systems across Europe and Africa.

How Sunny was 2017 over Europe and Africa?


European Solar Index Map: How Sunny was 2017 over Europe?

Very good year for most of Europe with

> 5% than average

Not so good year for western UK and

Ireland and for some northern European

areas with ca. 3% - 5% less than average

(e.g. Poland and northern Germany)


European Solar Index Map: How this compares with 2016?

2016 was less good than 2017 in

terms of solar resource for most of

Europe!


European Solar Index Map: What about the last 2 months in Europe?

January 2018 February 2018


Available options and views


Data Services: Satellite-Based Solar Resource Data

Web-shop

Direct online purchases / ad-hoc data requirements

API service (yearly subscriptions)

Large volumes of data / recurrent data access

https://api.3elabs.eu/solardata?latitude=50&longitude=5&...<>

solardata.html

MONITORING


Monitoring Solar & Wind Plant Operations


How to benefit from all these data beyond day-to-day operation?

At 3E we benefit from big data by:

✓ Running automated PV Health Scans

✓ Improving Solar & Wind power forecasting


The PV Health ScanAutomatic Fault Detection and Support for Diagnosis


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The PV Health Scan: Does your PV plant really perform at 100%?



Some examples


The photos are anecdotal and

show what happens in the

field. They do not correspond

with the following PV Health

Scan examples.

Pictures by 3E


Problem solving requires insight and time


Insight

Faults & Flaws

Experience Time


It’s time to use the PV Health Scan


• The PV Health Scan is a software-based service. 3E runs the software for you through a

dedicated server.

• The PV Health Scan reads your detailed monitoring data from SynaptiQ

• It performs an automated analysis for the Study Period.

• The Study Period can be anything from the past month or quarter up to several years.


It’s time to use the PV Health Scan


• You receive analysis and fault detection through automatic reports with a quality check

from 3E’s PV experts.


Waterfall of losses: from reference yield to performance ratio (PR)

Unexpected

high losses in

DC current

Example: 2 MW rooftop in Belgium

A plant with high losses in DC current, but why ?



No immediate faults or outages: but long-term degradation


• Figure of current-related array losses

deseasonalized trend

• Both arrays/inverters degrade systematically

• Long-term degradation rates: ~2.4% per year

• Probable root cause:

• Hot spots from shadow or soiling

• Degradation of PV laminates

It’s time for thermography and probably a warranty claim.

Example: 2 MW rooftop in Belgium


Disconnected strings in larger PV arrays without string monitoring


• Figure: current-related array losses per inverter

• INV 1 drops end of August 2015

• Performs systematically ~11% too low

• Inverter has 18 strings: 2 out of 18 is 11%

• Root cause: 2 strings damaged or disconnected

at junction box

Example: 300 kW rooftop in Belgium

The problem was not detected before. A PV Health Scan and repair in September would have

give the owner 11% higher yield over 10 months.


3E’s PV Health Scan drills down from KPIs to operational details


• Data consistency checks

• Standard KPIs

• Checks on detailed performance

& loss values

• Component & device level

• Module degradation check

Analysis

Faster and easier fault detection and lower losses:

Available through SynaptiQ or as advisory service.


Data Services:Real-Time Power Forecasting Tools


Real-Time Power Forecasting Tools


• Grid management

• Energy trading

• Portfolio management

• Plant operations

• Smart energy management

ca. 30% of electricity demand covered by PV during noon hours in several countries across

EU*

Above 50% of electricity demand covered by PV in Germany and Italy during noon hours

http://www.solarpowereurope.org/live-map/

http://www.solarpowereurope.org/live-map/


Solar & Wind Forecasting


New Requirements


•More frequent and accurate projections of energy production

• Penalties if projections are not realized

Advanced forecasting provided through SynaptiQ is a crucial cost-effective

tool for increased profitability of renewable energy assets


Challenges


•Very different weather and local conditions in every region!

• R&D continues to improve forecasting techniques

Advanced tools are needed!




Forecast performance is affected by:

• Forecast time horizon

• Local weather conditions

• Geographic scope

• Monitoring data availability

Adjust to local conditions &

system operator needs!


Data Services: Solar & Wind Forecasting

• Plant operations Days/week-ahead (10 days)

• Energy trading Day-ahead (24 hours)

• Grid management Intra-day (few hours)




Analysis (SynaptiQ)

Self-learning

Adjust

Improved forecast


SynaptiQ Integrated Solar & Wind Forecast


Exploit the power of your data for the most advanced power forecast



Fully integrated forecast to exploit the power of your data

• Resource and Power forecasts directly available for all

your monitored assets

• Multiple intra-day updates

• No additional set-up nor configuration fees

Stand-alone Forecasting Service

Use our forecasting services to power your own applications

• Resource and Power forecasts provided through FTP,

email or API Service (CSV and JSON formats)

• Provided once per day at a designated time or with

multiple intra-day updates

• Initial set-up required to configure the plant and data

treatment (training)_

1 2



• Worldwide coverage

• Combination of several NWP models to get the best forecast for your region

• Forecasting from few hours ahead up to 10 days ahead at 15 minutes granularity

• Intra-day updates

• Forecast services fully integrated in SynaptiQ exploiting the power of your data

• Forecast can be delivered through FTP, email or directly via our API service for direct integration into

your applications

• Data output available in JSON or CSV format. Other formats available on request


Forecasting – Validation Results

• Solar Power Forecast

• Typical Mean Absolute Error (MAE) to be expected is in the order of 4% to 6% (normalized to the installed capacity)

➢ Mainly depends on region (weather conditions) and data availability & quality for MOS correction

• Wind Power Forecast

• Typical Mean Absolute Error (MAE) to be expected is in the order of 6% to 9% (normalized to the installed capacity)

➢ Mainly affected by terrain complexity and data availability & quality for MOS correction


Thank you!

www.3e.eu

Mauricio Richter

[email protected]

Documents

Data Services...Solar Resource Data (Historial and Near Real-Time Irradiation Data) Data Quality and Validation Results A detailed look into Europe with a dense network of over 300