Data on the world drug situation: Gaps and opportunities

Sandeep ChawlaDirectorDivision for Policy Analysis and Public Affairs, UNODC

Outline

• Why collect and analyse data on the drug situation?• Existing data and indicators of the world drug situation

– Production– Seizures– Prices– Use

• Data availability – present gaps – opportunities moving forwards

Drug production

Opium and cocaine production:Methods developed, reasonable certainty

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,00094 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Opiu

m (m

etric

tons)

Afghanistan (since 1994) Myanmar (since 2001) Lao PDR ('92, '96, '98, since 2000)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Coca

ine

(met

ric

tons)

Colombia (since 1999) Peru (since 2000) Bolivia (since 2003)

not directly comparable with previous years

Opium

Cocaine

• Wide range of potential cultivation areas • Wide variety of cultivation practices • Many different cultivation scales and intensities • Different processing and products

Global cannabis production: estimation remains a challenge

Outdoor areas potentially suitable for cannabis cultivation

Global ATS production, 1998-2007: Great uncertainty, and need for critique and improvement

445480 478 494

312

500

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1998 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006

ATS m

anufa

cture

est

imat

es (m

t)

ATS Range Estimate ATS Point Estimate

Drug seizures

Drug seizure data – average improvements in recording HOWEVER Africa and Oceania still lack capacity, and data quality remains an issue

Drug prices

UNODC prices data collection: opium and coca products• Monthly farm-gate prices

– coca leaf and derivatives (Bolivia, Colombia, Peru)– opium (Afghanistan, Myanmar)

• Monthly trader prices in production areas• Export value estimation

– opium (Afghanistan)• Consumer prices and purities

– collected through ARQ

Price data collection challenges

• Very limited and outdated data:– Wholesale level (country to country)– Street level prices (except in some high income countries)

• Purity– Poorly monitored and reported

• Value added along trafficking routes– Poorly understood

Drug use

Data incredibly limited: drug use prevalence estimates

Drug use data

• Very few objective data on drug use– Even fewer direct measures of trends in drug use

• Expert perceptions of trends– most common source, but unknown validity

• Improve reporting against the 2000 Lisbon consensus?– Drug use: general population, young people– “High risk” drug use: injecting, risk behaviours– Drug problems

Moving forward:Increasing data collection and

consolidation

Data collection

• Build data collection capacity– Develop drug information systems in regions of need– Support studies of drug use prevalence– Encourage collaborative links between countries within regions

• Use a strategic focus to direct activities – Build the SMART programme– Development of a new programme to improve drug use data collection

• Maximise integration with other data collection– Other health surveys and studies– Other regional drug information systems

Methodological issues

• The ARQ and BRQ– Are they still fit for purpose?– Can we improve reporting processes and outcomes?

• Data are often unclear or inconsistent– How should UNODC deal with such data? – Are additional review processes warranted?

• How can regional and global estimates best be made?– Methods of data imputation– Logic behind extrapolation of estimates to other countries

Addressing uncertainty

• Explicitly acknowledge and estimate uncertainty • Increased transparency, critique and consultation• Shared approach to data collection and interpretation• Better coordination and collaboration

– With member states – With drug monitoring organisations– With other external partners and experts

Revising global data collection: March 2009 mandate• CND meeting in Vienna

– Debates about current data – Debates about future processes

• Political declaration re-stated the importance of data to inform evidence-based drug policy

• Resolution passed that tasked UNODC with:– revising the Annual Reports Questionnaire– Improving and streamlining integrated data collection at the

global level

Review process being undertaken by UNODC:1. UNODC Expert meeting in July 2009: Vienna, Austria2. Recommendations made for revisions to both process and

tools – for consideration in November3. Intergovernmental Expert Group meeting in November

2009: Vienna, Austria 4. Revised ARQ process and questionnaire developed for

consideration by CND5. UNODC reporting back to CND in March 2010:

consideration and ratification

Revising global data collection: the coming year