Data, Methods, and Key Variables for Financial Projections

Ajay Tandon

Senior Economist

Global Practice for Health, Nutrition, and Population

World Bank

Washington, DC, USA

E-mail: atandon@worldbank.org

Montreux, December 10, 2014

Health & Economy Database

Combination of data from WHO, WB, IMF, and other publically-available database for a host of issues:

WHO global health expenditure database for health financing variables.

WDI data on health and economic outcomes, including WHO-WB UHC recommended indicators.

IMF data from WEO outlook.

Additional data from POLITY, ILO, and other sources, including burden of disease from IHME.

Covers 1960-2019; updated every 3-6 months.

STATA programs for standardized analytics.

Measuring Progress towards UHC

Access to family planning

At least 4 ANC visits

Measles immunization

Improved water source

Adequate sanitation

Non-use of tobacco

Skilled birth attendance

Anti-retroviral therapy

TB case detection and

treatment rate

Hypertension treatment

Diabetes treatment

Incidence of catastrophic health expenditure

Incidence of impoverishment resulting from high levels of health expenditure

WHO-WB Measurement Framework Recommended UHC Indicators

Health Outcome Analytics

Chile

Thailand Brazil

Costa Rica

China

South Africa

Kenya

EthiopiaNigeria

Turkey

Peru

Indonesia

India

1995

2012

12

525

100

400

Under-

five m

ort

alit

y per

1,0

00 li

ve b

irth

s

1 26 51 76 101 126 151 176Country rank in 1995

Note: y-axis log scale

Under-five mortality, 1995-2012

Brazil

Chile

Ethiopia Ghana

India

Nigeria

South Africa

Costa Rica

Vietnam

12

525

100

400

Under-

five m

ort

alit

y per

1,0

00 li

ve b

irth

s

250 1000 5000 15000 50000GDP per capita, US$

y-axis and x-axis log scale

Under-five mortality vs income, 2011

Source: WDIUNICO countries highlighted

Burden of Disease

Non-communicable

Communicable

Injuries

37%

56%

7%

1990

Non-communicable

Communicable

Injuries

49%43%

9%

2000

Non-communicable

Communicable

Injuries

58%

33%

9%

2010

Source: IHME

Non-communicable

Communicable

Injuries

33.1%

58.9%

8.4%

1990

Non-communicable

Communicable

Injuries

40.4%

49.7%

10.1%

2000

Non-communicable

Communicable

Injuries

49.3%

40.0%

11.2%

2010

Source: IHME

Indonesia Myanmar

Ethno-linguistic Fractionalization

Tunisia

Brazil

Thailand

Kenya

China

Vietnam

PeruPhilippines

India

Indonesia

South AfricaNigeria

Ethiopia

0.2

.4.6

.81

Eth

no-l

ingu

istic fra

ction

aliz

ation

ind

ex

(0=

hom

oge

no

us, 1

=h

ete

roge

no

us)

Source: Alesina et al (2003)Note: Index measures probability that two randomly selected individuals fromthe population belong to different ethno-linguistic groups

Ethno-linguistic fractionalization across UNICO countries

$1-a-day/$2-a-day Poverty Rates

$2-a-day

$1-a-day

02

04

06

08

01

00

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f to

tal po

pu

lation

(%

)

Low income Lower-middle income Upper-middle income High income

Eth

iopi

a

Ken

ya

Kyr

gyz

Rep

ublic

Niger

iaIn

dia

Vie

tnam

Gha

na

Phi

lippine

s

Geo

rgia

Gua

tem

ala

Indo

nesia

Tunisia

Thaila

nd

Jam

aica

ChinaPer

u

Colom

bia

Sou

th A

frica

Cos

ta R

ica

Mex

ico

Turke

y

Arg

entin

a

Bra

zil

Chile

Source: WDINote: Data are for latest available year

Absolute poverty rates in UNICO countries

Levels of Informality

02

04

06

08

01

00

Se

lf-e

mp

loyed

sh

are

of to

tal em

plo

yed

(%

)

Low income Lower-middle income Upper-middle income High income

Kyr

gyz

Rep

ublic

Ken

ya

Eth

iopi

a

Philip

pine

s

Gua

tem

ala

Indo

nesia

Geo

rgia

Vie

tnam

Niger

ia

Gha

naIn

dia

China

Sou

th A

frica

Arg

entin

a

Cos

ta R

ica

Tunisia

Bra

zil

Mex

ico

Turke

y

Jam

aica

Per

u

Colom

bia

Thaila

nd

Chile

Source: WDI

Self-employment in UNICO countries, 2011

ILO Breadth of Coverage Database

Trends in Coverage and OOP Spending

Coverage

OOP share

10

30

50

70

90

Perc

ent (%

)

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010Year

Source: WHO

Philippines

Coverage

OOP share

10

30

50

70

90

Perc

ent (%

)

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010Year

Source: WHO

Vietnam

Coverage

OOP share

10

30

50

70

90

Perc

ent (%

)

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010Year

Source: WHO; China Health Service Report

China

Coverage

OOP share

10

30

50

70

90

Perc

ent (%

)

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010Year

Source: WHO

Thailand

Macro-Fiscal Indicators

UNICO countries

Non-UNICO countries

Asian financial crisis Global financial crisis

02

46

8

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2012

Source: WDI

Average GDP growth: UNICO vs non-UNICO countries, 1995-2012

India

JamaicaGhana

Chile

China

Nigeria

Kyrgyz Republic

Ethiopia

Argentina

Brazil

-20

-10

-30

10

20

Fis

ca

l de

ficit to G

DP

ra

tio (

%)

0 25 60 100 150 200 250 300Debt to GDP ratio (%)

Source: IMFNote: UNICO countries highlighted

Fiscal deficit and government debt to GDP ratio, 1995-2012

Gross general government debt

Expenditures

Revenues

General government balance

-20

-10

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10

0

Pe

rcen

t of G

DP

(%

)

1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017Year

Inflation rate

Economic growth rate

Unemployment rate

-20

-10

010

20

30

40

50

60

Pe

rcen

t (%

)

1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017Year

Source: WB & IMF

Key fiscal/economic indicators for IndonesiaActual:1995-2011; Projected:2012-2017