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DRAFTData Evaluation for the Quail Run Dioxin Excavation Site
I. Introduction
A statistical analysis has been performed on the sample and
excavation depth data gathered at the Quail Run Mobile Hone Park
(MHP). This effort was an attempt to identify the correlation
between 2,3,7,8 tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) concentrations
and soil depth of contamination for the Quail Run site. The
evaluation and interpretation of the subject data and subsequent
results has considered the effects of sample location, condition
and type of soil area sampled i.e. roadway, shoulder, offset
sections, disturbed or undisturbed soil (based on currently
available information). The effects of site relief, soil
erosion, weather, other environmental factors or unknown soil
disturbance situations undoubtedly cannot be adequately or
appropriately considered. A concentration-depth relationship
curve (Figure 1) has been generated which will allow the
extrapolation of a contaminant level for a given depth, or vice
versa. A curve (Figure 2) was also generated that predicts
excavation depth for a given concentration at the surface, based
on a TCDD clean up level of 1 ppb. These curves are for Quail
Run only or sites that are similar in nature to Quail Run.
II. Site Description/History
The site formerly (prior to excavation) consisted of a
roadway, adjacent trailer pads and grassed yard areas, an open
field and a low lying grassed area with a three-cell domestic
waste stabilization pond (WSP). Relief across the site varies 96
feet with an elevation of 1 8 6 6 ft. at the entrance, 1 8 4 0 ft. at
the midline point and 1770 ft. at the far back side of the MHP
near the WSP.
Portions of the site soils were disturbed prior to the April
1985 subject excavation of contaminated soil. Mr. Chlanda,
former owner of the MHP, removed the upper few inches of the
original roadway surface and reportedly spread the material in
the open field west of the WSP. Chlanda also bulldozed excavated
road material across sections 31 thru 34 to fill an area used as
a construction site for his barn. This area is directly west of
the MHP on the Chlanda residential property.
Samples (historical) of soil were collected throughout the
MHP prior to the removal effort in an attempt to define the level
and extent of TCDD contamination. Historical data was not used in
this study because of the variations in sampling methodologies
and length of time between the historical samples and samples
assoc ia ted with the removal e f fo r t . During the
excavation/removal action initiated in February 1985, surface
soil samples were collected from specifically identified sections
within the MHP. During the excavation effort these sections were
excavated to a depth where TCDD concentrations (95% upper
confidence limit) were statistically below 1 ppb. Section
excavations at times required removal of more than one "lift."
The recorded depths of each lift or final excavation are rough,
within j; 10 to 20 percent of the recorded depth, due to the
fairly crude method of soil removal and variation in section
relief. Also geographically/physically different sections were
excavated e.g. roadways, shoulders, offsets. As previously
mentioned, the roadway and some shoulder and offsets section
soils were previously disturbed according to the available
information. This disturbance will have undoubtedly altered the
normal soil compaction, percolation potential and other normal
soil conditions. The road sections were not only disturbed by
bulldozing, laying utilities, etc. but also had a gravel matrix
which would differ significantly as compared to a native soil
matrix. ..-.,
III. Statistical Analysis _;
A. Basic Assumptions C
Prior to the statistical analysis all data was screened in Q
an effort to normalize the effect of extreme values. The
statistical analysis was based on data that was considered to be
as consistent and similar as possible to improve the significance
of the analysis and correlation of data. All data gathered from
areas that were considered to have been previously disturbed,
prior to the February 1985 removal action, were not considered at
this time. This primarily eliminated the roadway and some
shoulder and offset sections, as previously identified. The
initial screening of data indicated that the disturbed section
data was statistically dissimilar to the majority of undisturbed
section data. This data, however, could be considered at a later
time.
Another important initial assumption was the assumption of
isotropic soil conditions. This assumption is probably most
valid in areas not previously disturbed, providing additional
support to the elimination of disturbed soil sections.
The sampling techniques and laboratory procedures (QA/QC
methodology) were also assumed to be consistent throughout the
sampling and removal action. In addition, it was assumed that
each analytical data point truely represents the contaminant
concentration at the corresponding depth.
B. Data Analysis
All data has been listed in a table (enclosed in Appendix A)
which presents the section, depth of (lift) excavation, surface _
and lift TCDD concentrations, section type (i.e. roadway, offset) 0
and condition (i.e. dis turbed/undisturbed) . Init ial ly the
undisturbed shoulder and of fse t sections were manipulated °
independently. This, however, led to the reasonable combination
of these two sets of data, since statistically these two section
types were similar (Appendix B, calculat ions) . Depth of
excavation for these sections were compared to the corresponding
concentration of TCDD in parts per billion. TCDD concentrations
below 1 ppb, though above the detection l imit , were also
considered in the analysis. A median value, considering all
data, was calculated for each depth and type of section (offset
or shoulder). The median values were used in the determination
of the slope and y-intercept for each set (offset and shoulder)
of data and the combination set of data. These values are shown
in Table 1.
Median values for offsets sections included data only up to
the greatest depth of offset excavation, 8 inches. Calculation
of the median value for shoulder sections included only
excavation depths to 12 inches due to the fluctuation of data
available for greater depths. The slope of the line on a plot of
depth versus concentration for the shoulder data greater than 12
inches unrealistically became positive, indicating depths of
excavation above ground surface. l-"
A linear least square method using the median value was
performed in an effort to find the slope of the In (natural log)
concentration versus depth. Subsequently the Student's t-
Distribution using various confidence limits (95, 60, 5 0 % ) was
applied to find possible slope and y intercept ranges. The 95% 0o
and 50% confidence limits were found to correlate to the shoulder —i
and offset data, respectively. These confidence limits presented
the data in a manner that realistically corresponded to the
potential depths of excavations. The final slope of the combined
offset and shoulder section data sets was within the 5 0 %
confidence limit. Figure 1 presents the graph showing the depth
versus concentration relationship. Figure 2 presents the
excavation depth for a given surface concentration based on a 1
ppb TCDD cleanup level. Sample calculations are attached in the
Appendix of this report.
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APPENDIX B
Statistical Analysis
A. Assumptions
1. Unsaturated zone is isotropic.
2. Sample collection and laboratory analyses (i.e., QA/QC) were
properly handled.
3. Each analytical result has truely represented the
contamination level at the corresponding depth.
4. All disturbed areas were not considered in the statistical
analysis.
5. An extreme data value will be used as the critical cutoff
point for the analysis. 0
6. Offset section data were used as the basis for analysis
since most of these sections had not been disturbed prior to
the removal effort.
Statistical Analysis3. Procedure
1. Obtain the median of each set of data, at each depth andconsider approximately 50% of the occurrence frequency.
2.
-rrc,e»Mer\c*J
Apply linear least square method to find slope and intercept
values, y = mx + b
3. Apply student's t distribution with reasonable confidence
limits to find slope and intercept ranges.
4. Compare slope ranges of the offset area with the shoulder
area to find the critical cutoff data point for the shoulder
area.
5. Within reason combine the slope of offset area and shoulder
area ••
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