Data Digest: Florida

February 2012

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Broad indicators of economic activity for Florida and the United States continue to improve; however, Florida’s pace is moving at a slower clip than that of the nation.

2

About the Coincident Economic Indicator

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Coincident Economic Indicator December 2011

United States

Florida

Jan 2001 = 100

Total employment in Florida has begun to improve slowly. The current level of employment is equivalent to what was last seen in October 2003.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

3

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Florida Payroll Employment December 2011

Thousands, seasonally adjusted

Overall, Florida experienced nearly an 11 percent loss in jobs from January 2007 to December 2010. Compared to a year ago, a majority of the sectors have added jobs over the last year. Transportation/warehousing/utilities, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality lead with gains over 3 percent.

4

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

1.6

-0.3

1.8

-0.3

3.1

4.1

-2.5

1.9

1.5

2.5

3.3

0.5

-1.6

-0.3

-10.9

-49.5

-25.8

-14.1

-9.5

-10.0

-17.2

-15.0

-13.6

7.8

-3.6

-10.3

2.3

-2.0

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20

Total

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Transport/Warehousing/Utilities

Information

Financial services

Business services

Education & healthcare

Leisure & hospitality

Other services

Federal & state government

Local government

Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Florida December 2011

Percent change Jan 2007 to Dec 2010 Year-over-year percent change

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Several sectors of Florida’s economy showed positive employment momentum in December with transportation/warehousing/utilities and manufacturing showing the most improvement. Since last month, information, construction, and local government employment momentum moved from contracting to improving. Federal and state government continues to remain weak.

5

About Employment Momentum

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-4 -2 0 2 4 6

3-m

onth

ave

rage

ann

ualiz

ed p

erce

nt c

hang

e

Year-over-year percent change

Employment Momentum by Industry: Florida December 2011

Business

Manufacturing

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Transportation/ Warehousing/ Utilities

Information

Financial services

Education and health care

Leisure and hospitality

Other services

Construction

Federal and state government

Local government

Expanding Improving

Contracting Slipping

Job losses in many Florida metro areas from January 2007 to December 2010 were staggering. However, compared to a year ago, most metro areas are experiencing modest job gains. Tampa-St. Petersburg, Vero Beach, and Daytona each have had over 2 percent growth in total employment over the past year.

6

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

1.6

2.0

1.3

-0.8

1.8

-1.1

-1.8

1.2

0.0

0.6

0.9

0.6

-1.3

-1.1

1.7

0.8

2.6

1.3

2.6

1.0

-10.9

-10.0

-17.3

-5.5

-8.2

-9.0

-10.7

-9.6

-17.5

-16.5 -7.1

-6.3

-9.2

-11.1

-11.0

-14.8

-15.1

-4.4

-11.0

-11.6

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

Florida

Daytona

Ft. Myers

Gainesville

Jacksonville

Lakeland

Melbourne

Miami-Ft.L'dale

Naples

Ocala

Orlando

Panama City

Pensacola

St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce

Punta Gorda

Sarasota

Vero Beach

Tallahassee

Tampa-St. Pete

W. Palm Beach

Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Florida December 2011

Percent change Jan 2007 to Dec 2010 Year-over-year percent change

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Tampa-St. Petersburg, Orlando, Jacksonville, West Palm Beach, and several other cities show positive employment momentum. However, for several smaller metro areas, employment continues to contract.

7

About Employment Momentum

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

3-m

onth

ave

rage

ann

ualiz

ed p

erce

nt c

hang

e

Year-over-year percent change

Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Florida December 2011

Tampa-St. Pete

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale

Punta Gorda

Ft. Myers

Jacksonville Melbourne

Sarasota

Orlando

Lakeland

Daytona

St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce

Ocala

West Palm Beach

Gainesville

Expanding Improving

Contracting Slipping

Tallahassee

Panama City

Naples

Vero Beach

Pensacola

January 2011 marked the first month since May 2007 that Florida’s employment momentum entered the expanding quadrant. Since then, momentum has varied but remains in the expanding quadrant.

8

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

About Employment Momentum Track

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

3-m

onth

ave

rage

per

cent

cha

nge,

ann

ualiz

ed

Year-over-year percent change

Employment Momentum Track: Florida January 2007–December 2011

Expanding Improving

Contracting Slipping

Florida’s unemployment rate has decreased since the summer of 2011 but continues to be above the national rate. Tallahassee and Gainesville are the only two metro areas in the state with unemployment rates below the national average.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

9

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Unemployment Rate December 2011

Florida

United States

Percent of labor force Percent of labor force

Alternative measures of labor underutilization for Florida—namely, the U6 figure—show that 17.6 percent of the state’s labor force is unemployed or underemployed, which is higher than the U.S. rate of 15.6 percent.

10

About Unemployment Rates

Notes: U6=Unemployed + Marginally attached + Part-time economic reasons/Civilian labor force + Marginally attached.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Measures of Labor Utilization: Unemployment Rate and U6 Q4 2011

United States: U6 United States: Unemployment rate Florida: U6 Florida: Unemployment rate

Percent, seasonally adjusted

Initial claims for unemployment continue to decline into the new year. However, the current number of claims remains elevated by historical standards.

11

Source: U.S. Department of Labor–Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Florida January 21, 2012

Initial claims averaged just over 10,000 during 2004–2006. The current number of initial claims remains elevated.

4-week moving average

Source: Florida Department of Revenue, University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research Center, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Consumer confidence in Florida declined significantly throughout 2011. However, in recent months, confidence has been improving. Sales tax revenues have been increasing, but the pace slowed for most of 2011.

12

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Florida Sales Tax Revenue and Consumer Confidence December 2011

Florida Consumer Confidence (left scale)

Florida Sales Tax Revenue (right scale)

Sales tax revenues have been helped by healthy activity in the leisure and hospitality sector. International visitors have played an important role in boosting tourism spending.

1966 = 100 Year-to-year change,

3-month moving average

The Southeast Purchasing Manager Index, which measures regional manufacturing activity, fell just under the level of expansion in December to 49.8. However, Florida’s PMI remains well above the regional measure.

13

Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometric Center

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Southeast Purchasing Managers Index December 2011

The Florida component of the SE PMI was 60 in December 2011.

Existing home sales in Florida and the nation increased during the third quarter. Florida’s sales are mostly being driven by distressed sales. International investors have also been active in this market.

Source: National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

14

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Existing Home Sales Q3 2011

United States Florida

Year-over-year percent change

Home prices in Florida have declined substantially over the past five years. After stabilizing somewhat in 2009 and early 2010, prices have fallen again recently. Home prices in Tampa and Miami continue to fall, and Tampa’s index remains below the composite index for 20 major metro areas in the United States.

15 Source: S&P, Haver Analytics

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index through November 2011

Miami

Tampa

Jan 2000 = 100

FHFA House Price

Index: Q3 2011

1-yr %

change

5-yr %

change

10-yr %

change

USA -4.3 -14.5 25.5

Florida -8.4 -41.0 22.1

Ft. Myers -3.7 -53.5 3.9

Daytona -10.3 -48.7 10.2

Ft. Lauderdale -6.4 -45.4 25.3

Gainesville -8.0 -24.1 36.1

Jacksonville -8.9 -32.0 23.6

Lakeland -9.6 -40.7 12.7

Miami -7.7 -42.7 34.9

Naples -8.4 -51.7 11.5

Ocala -14.6 -43.0 11.9

Orlando -10.9 -44.8 10.9

Melbourne -8.0 -48.2 12.8

Panama City -4.1 -29.4 37.2

Pensacola -6.1 -26.2 26.0

St. Lucie-Fort Pierce -4.6 -52.2 9.3

Punta Gorda -8.4 -49.2 6.2

Tallahassee -5.5 -21.2 34.5

Tampa-St. Pete -7.9 -39.6 19.0

Vero Beach -13.8 -46.7 9.4

West Palm Beach -8.5 -45.7 23.3

As a result of low sales and high inventories, new home construction remains near historic lows in Florida and the United States. Like the nation, the number of new home permits in Florida has been showing small increases over the past few months.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics

15

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

New Residential Home Construction Permits December 2011

United States (left scale)

Florida (right scale)

Florida Realtors and homebuilders reported that sales growth was ahead of last year’s weak levels, largely driven by investors and cash sales.

16

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

About the Real Estate Contact Poll

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

FRB Atlanta Real Estate Contact Poll: Florida Current Home Sales vs Year-ago Levels

December 2011

Realtors

Homebuilders

Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics

Office vacancy rates rose throughout the recession and have stabilized in most cities except Miami and Fort Lauderdale.

17

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Office Vacancy Rate Q3 2011

United States

Ft. Lauderdale

Jacksonville

Miami

Orlando

Tampa

Percent

Industrial availability rates remain elevated throughout Florida but have declined in Miami.

18

Note: There was a break in the series for Fort Lauderdale and Miami from Q2 2006 through Q3 2007. Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Industrial Availability Rate Q3 2011

United States Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa

Percent

Activity through Florida’s ports is rebounding from the downturn that occurred during the recession. Exports through southeast Florida in particular have accelerated.

19

Note: The Miami District includes ports from Key West up the eastern coast to Port St. Lucie. All other Florida ports are in the Tampa District. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Port Activity Q3 2011

Miami District, Imports

Tampa District, Imports

Miami District, Exports

Tampa District, Exports

Total value, $ thousands

20

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