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Johannes HuninkPeter Droogers
Data and tools for climate change vulnerability assessments
Sep-2016, Yerevan
Workshop on data collection and water balances, Armenia
> “Research and consulting on water resource management”
> Topics: water, food, irrigation, climate change, droughts, remote sensing, models
> Outputs: technical reports, policy reports, scientific publications, training, datasets, models, operational
services
> Partners/Clients: World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Governments, River Basin Organizations, Research
Entities, Science Foundations
> Geographical focus: Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America
> Offices: Wageningen (NL), Cartagena (ES): 12 staff
FutureWater
> Objective and the trainings
> Water and climate
> Data
> Armenia
> Program of this workshop
Contents
> Objective─ increase the national capacity in using models for qualified assessment of
vulnerability and planning of adaptation measures particularly in water sector and agriculture
> Workshops:1. On data and analysis framework - now2. Theoretical on crop modeling – next month3. Practical training on crop modeling – next month
> Scenario definition and data collection: ─ Together with you─ Online support, skype, email
Johannes Hunink, [email protected] Peter Droogers, [email protected]
Project Background and Relevance
Quantitative informationWhy water balance and allocation modeling for climate adaptation in agriculture
Today
Future Focus
Policies:
A, B, C
• Observations
• Statistics
• Questionnaires
• Remote Sensing
• Evaluate Alternatives
• Simulation Models
Trend ????
FuturePast
Future B
Tools for decision making
planting today harvestw
ate
r p
rod
uctivity
un
ce
rtain
ty
past future
un
ce
rtain
ty
planting today harvest
past futuremodelw
ate
r p
rod
uctivity
Modeling: what for?
Modeling: what for?
For example: Hydrological Now- and Forecasting:
From PhD thesis J. M. Schuurmans (2008)
> Understanding processes─ unlimited spatial resolution─ unlimited temporal resolution─ difficult measurable processes
> Options for future─ scenario analysis─ what .. if
Model Application
> Largest water consumer─ How much water do you drink─ How much water do you “eat”
Understanding Full Water System
> Global
> Armenia─ 500 mm/y rainfall─ 30,000 km2
─ 15000 MCM/y
Scale and models
Model categories
Physical detail
lowhigh
Sp
ati
al s
ca
le
field
system
basin
continentPodium
STREAM
SLURP
WSBM
SWAT
WEAP
IQQM
SWAP
WaterMod
All models are wrong but some models are useful
(George E. P. Box)
Modeling Inputs and Outputs
13
GCMsGeneral Circulation
Models
WEAPWater Evaluation And
Planning
AquaCrop
CLIRUNClimate Runoff
TemperaturePrecipitationLatitude
Rainfall Runoff
Temperature PrecipitationSoil CompositionCrop Type
Location
Water DemandReservoir SpecificationsRiver Basin Management
Irrigation Demand
Adaptation Model
Adaptation costsEconomic parameters
Crop yields
Strategic DSS
> What happens if….
> Investment decisions
> Impact and adaptation scenarios
Decision Support Systems (DSS)
Operational DSS
> What to do now
> Managerial decisions
> License scenarios
Same tool but different level of
> input data
> physical detail
> time steps
> Understanding current situation observations remote sensing models
> Projections (external) population macro-economic climate
> Impact of projections water shortages flooding extremes
> Alternatives (=interventions) Business as Usual Integrated Water Resources Management
Water Planning
Data Sources
locally-sourced
non-RS
globalpublic-domain
RemoteSensing
Land Cover
StreamflowOperations
Climate
BioMass
Soils
Topography
Socio-Economic
Groundwater
Evaporation
Climate change vulnerability Armenia
Key Climate Challenges in Georgia
18
Figure 15: Climate Change Vulnerability Index, ECA RegionSource: The World Bank, 2009. Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia, Washington DC
Important Climate Change Concepts
Direct effects of climate change, including changes in precipitation, temperature, and frequency and intensity of extreme events.
The effects on human activities and ecosystems that result from climate change hazards. More vulnerable communities will face more pronounced impacts.
Steps taken to reduce the impacts of climate change.
19
Hazards
Impacts
Adaptation
Concept Description Example
Higher temperatures
cause heat stress on
some crops and
increased evaporation
rates.
The hazard of increased
temperature leads to
declines (or increases) in
crop productivity and
increased water
demand.
Rehabilitated irrigation
systems and changes in
seed variety.
Source: J.A. Neumann et al., 2014. Building resilience to climate change in South Caucasus agriculture. World Bank report
Key climate challenges in Georgia
Higher temperatures of 1.7°C by the 2040s and 3.2°C by the 2070s
Decreased precipitation trends of 10% over last 80 years, but some regions also increase has been observed
Streamflow is predicted to increase in some area, decrease in others.
Increased occurrence of extreme events frost, hailstorms
20
Projected Crop Yield Impacts
21
Impact on wheat yield, Armenia
Source: Droogers and Hunink, 2012. Assessment of Impact of Climate Change on Wheat in Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Georgia. FutureWater report 108
> Increase
> Assess using an agro-hydrological model like AquaCrop
> But what about supply versus demand?
Irrigation water demand
23
Modeling Inputs and Outputs
24
GCMsGeneral Circulation
Models
WEAPWater Evaluation And
Planning
AquaCrop
CLIRUNClimate Runoff
TemperaturePrecipitationLatitude
Rainfall Runoff
Temperature PrecipitationSoil CompositionCrop Type
Location
Water DemandReservoir SpecificationsRiver Basin Management
Irrigation Demand
Adaptation Model
Adaptation costsEconomic parameters
Crop yields
WEAP: Water Allocation Model
WEAP: Basic Model
WEAP Results
WEAP Results
WEAP Results
WEAP: Advanced Model
Adaptation measures
31
> Shift crops from areas that are vulnerable to drought
> Enhanced cultivars more tolerant to heat/drought
> Installation of small scale reservoirs on farmland and other rainwater harvesting meaures
> Alter crop rotations
> Use of precision farming: tillage, leveling of land, etc
> Water charging or tradable permit schemes
> Regional or nationwide drought insurance program
> Construction of large scale reservoirs
Example Adaptation Measures to Reduce the Impact of Increased Risk of Drought and Water Scarcity
32
Example of scenario analysis using AquaCrop
Source: Hunink, J., P. Droogers. 2010. Climate Change Impact Assessment on Crop Production in Albania. World Bank Study on
Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Agricultural Systems. FutureWater Report 105
> From questionnaire:─ Cultivation of dry-climate crops, application of water saving technologies such
as drip irrigation. ─ System of effective water and soil use management. ─ Providing subsidies based on climate scenarios, which will support the farmer
in ensuring crops and food security. ─ Revision of some crop species selection. ─ Natural resources must be managed in a proper way. ─ Improve agricultural crops cultivation management taking into account water
supply problems, as well as mitigate the impact of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena
─ It is necessary to evaluate the dynamics in plants’ demand for water in different zones (lowlands, foothills and mountains) based on the changes of agro-climatic conditions and need for water saving technology introduction.
Your ideas on adaptation
Thank You
