Dash Climate National Security Oct 2013_FINAL.PDF

7/27/2019 Dash Climate National Security Oct 2013_FINAL.PDF

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Climate Change and (Inter)NationalSecurity

NGO Committee on Disarmament, Peace and SecurityOctober, 2013

Jan W. Dash, PhDClimate Initiative Chair, Unitarian Universalist UN Office

Climate Science Rapid Response Team Matchmaker

Climate Statement Chair, UN NGO Committee on Sustainable Development

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Background Overview

Risk Management - climate action framingClimate Science need only one fact

Recent Global Warming exists, is due to usClimate Impacts need only one fact

Bad and will get much worse if we do not actEffect on National Security

Climate acts as Threat MultiplierAppendix: Disinformation Campaign

Stranded Assets, Libertarians, Tobacco22/13/13


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Climate Risk Management

Best framework to deal with climate riskis CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT

Risk depends on Loss and Probability Tail risk: less probable but high loss If no action, todays tail climate risk will become

tomorrows average climate risk

SCENARIOS are used for analysisRational response to risk - lower it!

Mitigation to lower climate riskAdaptation when necessary

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Science: Earth is Heating Up. Its due

to us. It will get far worse

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Climate Impacts (IPCC 2007)

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Climate Impacts short list

We see bad impacts now, faint rumbling offuture worse impacts if we do not act

Less FOOD crops die at high temperaturesLess WATER glaciers, snow packs meltingMore DISEASE insect vectors moving northMore MIGRATION from unlivable regionsMore INSTABILITIES political, economicStressed FINANCIAL systems unstableStressed WEATHER extreme eventsThe ARCTIC new possibilities for conflict

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(Inter)National Security and Climate

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(Inter)National Security Risks from

Climate Change / Global WarmingClimate impacts add to already existing

international tensions

Food, water disputesMigration across borders

Countries will become increasinglystressed dealing with climate impacts

Unstable regions will become more unstableExisting armed conflicts could get worseNew armed conflicts can arise

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US Military speaks on Climate and

National Security Risk

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What does Military Say?

Copenhagen Climate Conference 2009Briefing - Pentagon, all branches of militarySLR (Navy) scenarios: 3 6 feet by 2100Rear Adm. David Titley

National Security 2010 White House docClimate occurs on 17 of 60 pages

Ret. Brig. General Steve Anderson 2012Clean Energy and National Security (Iraq)

CNA Military Advisors - Generals (ret)2/13/13 10


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Quadrennial Defense Review (2010)

Climate change will contribute to foodand water scarcity, will increase the

spread of disease, and may spur or

exacerbate mass migration.

While climate change alone does notcause conflict, it may act as an accelerant

of instability or conflict, placing a burdento respond on civilian institutions and

militaries around the world.

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Quadrennial Defense Review (2)

In addition, extreme weather events maylead to increased demands for defense

support to civil authorities for

humanitarian assistance or disasterresponse both within the United States

and overseas.

Second, DoD will need to adjust to theimpacts of climate change on our facilitiesand military capabilities.

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CNA Military Advisor report

Projected climate change poses aseriousthreat to Americas nationalsecurity...The national securityconsequences ofclimate changeshould be fully integratedinto nationalsecurity and nationaldefensestrategies...

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Food and Climate

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Food Insecurity and Climate

Crops? Yields will go Down (50% 2100)High temperature, Increased drought or

precipitation, More insects => LESS FOOD

Fish? Availability will go DownFood chain: plankton; acidification: shellfish

Animals? Availability will go DownDrought stress (less water, forage)

Add Financial Speculation => prices upAdd Increasing Population (9B 2050)

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Water and Climate

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Fresh Water Insecurity and Climate

Some sources are disappearingWorldwide: almost all glaciers retreatingSnow packs retreating (e.g. California)Drought some lakes retreating

Some sources become more unreliableWater runoff changing (rivers)

Add Speculation (cornering water rights)Add Population Increase (9B 2050)

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Health Risk and Climate

"Climate change is the biggestglobal health threat of the 21st

century

Effects of climate change on health will affectmost populations in the next decades and

put the lives and wellbeing of billions of

people at increased risk."Ref:"Managing the health effects of climate

change",Lancet, A. Costello et. al, 20092/13/13 18


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Health Risk and Climate

Human disease increaseMosquitoes etc. moving north, spread diseaseWeakened governments => more disease Health facilities weakened, over-stressed

Crop/tree disease increase Insects moving north: attack crops/trees

Psychology and ClimateDepression may get worse Irrationality due to disinformation

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Climate Migration / Refugees

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Migration due to Climate

Some regions will become unlivableSea level rise for coastal regionsCrop failures for whole regions

People will migrate if they have toExpect millions (hundreds of millions) 2100

Where? Livable regions already occupiedRecipe for conflict / regional wars,

government instability, terrorism increase

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Arctic Ice Risk and Climate

Arctic ice disappearing at rapid rateNew resource possibilitiesNew shipping possibilitiesNew Conflict possibilities

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Economics, Finance, and Climate

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Economic Insecurity and Climate

Supplies / manufacturing stressedStranded Assets and Carbon BubbleFuture $budget up coping with climate=> World economic depression?=> Financial systems collapse?

Stock / bond markets unstable anyway=> Failed states regional wars

Increased military expendituresHuman rights disappear

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Extreme Weather and Climate

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Extreme temperatures Increasing

(latest is purple curve, heating up)

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Extreme Weather and Climate

Planet heating up => more energy forbad / extreme weather events

More droughts with agricultural impactsMore heat waves, more intense fires Increased hurricane intensities (Katrina) Increased jet stream instabilities (Sandy)

Will increasingly stress governments /societies hit by extreme weather events

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Societal Instability Risk and Climate

Vulnerability varies widely (none immune)Resilience also varies widely

Governmental stability issuesMigration, unemployment, health stresses Increasing burden with climate disasters Manpower, money expenditures

Adaptation costs a lot and will get much worseAdaption by our descendants if we do nothing

will cost much more than mitigation costs tous now to alleviate climate risk

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Climate Ethics

Climate justice: Poor have the smallesteffect on climate hurt the worst

BUT NO PLACE TO HIDEU.S. will be hit very hard if no climate action

Intergenerational ethics: Our descendantsMore humane and cheaper for preventive

action now rather than disaster adaptiveaction by our descendants in the future

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What can we do?

Ex: International Climate Treaty

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Ex: Investors/Corporate action

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What We Can Do Progress, need

MORE. No Silver Bullet, need portfolioAction by individuals

Energy saving, letters: editor / representativeAction by organizations

Corporations, Universities, Faith-based, NGOsTargeting Climate: CSRRT, CCL, CATs

Action at all levels of governmentCity, State, Regional, National

International Climate Treaty (2015/2020)

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Geo-engineering risk and Climate

Some risky Dr. Strangelove proposalsSun reflectors, worldwide smog aerosolsWould affect countries differentlyScenario: Country A envisions GE that would

harm Country B => B invades A

Exception carbon sequestration

Plants, trees, maybe underground cavernsNot yet available at necessary scales, $

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Appendix: Who is this guy?

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Climate Science Deniers /

Contrarians / Faux SkepticsWe Have No Climate Risk 4 trenches:

1. Deny global warming2. Deny human influence on climate3. Minimize climate impact risk4. Exaggerate cost of climate action mitigation

Oppose climate action, renewable energy Create doubt = tobacco tactic (Oreskes)

Science cant prove so we shouldnt act Cherry pick, propose flimsy arguments

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Stranded Carbon Assets = key

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Who Supports Contrarian Deniers?

Fossil Fuel Co. FFC Exxon Mobile, KochFFCs want to be able to burn all carbonOtherwise STRANDED ASSETSWould reduce FFC $wealth, $stock price

Libertarians: Tea Party, Koch, Faux News...Basically oppose government actionBut governments must act to mitigate climateSo libertarians try to kill the message

Answer to riddle: C. Monckton372/13/13


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Bottom Line

Climate: big problem, we can solve it Human activities are causing recent global

warming trend of climate change

Climate impacts bad, observed now, willbecome far worse if we do not act

(Inter)national security implications exist Climate links to many other issues We are arrayed against powerful opponentsNOT too late to prevent worst impacts

You can help382/13/13


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Thank You

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Reference: climate.uu-uno.org

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Documents

Dash Climate National Security Oct 2013_FINAL.PDF