Xavier Chavana PPCR Coordinator, Ministry of Planning and Development Jean-Christophe Carret, Sr Environmental Economist, WB

TFESSD FORUM : GREEN AND INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT: HARNESSING TFESSD KNOWLEDGE

Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, November 15-17, 2011

Climate change in Mozambique: from

knowledge creation to Investments

TFESSD – TASAF – Norway and Finland

Adaptation costs are mainly incurred in developing countries and equal ODA

Additional investment needs in developing countries, by

2030

Annual Costs of Adaptation: by Sectors, 2010-2050, US$ Billion

Mozambique: Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change

The 2000 floods cost about 20% of GDP, Water shocks reduce GDP

growth by 1% annually

The cost of inaction in the worst scenario is about US$7.6 billion (NPV)

= annual payment of US$420 million = a 1/3 of current ODA

BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

"Dry" and “Wet” Scenarios for Precipitation in 2050

Estimate change in effective return time for the 100-year storm surge as a result of Sea Level Rise (SLR) for Beira

“Dry” and “Wet” Scenarios for Temperature in 2050

4

Impact of Mozambican Floods in Different Sectors

Climate Change Impact on Hydro-Power Generation and Roads Infrastructure

The effects on the hydropower sector are

minimal, losing around 6% of total electricity

production between 2010 and 2050 thus

implying that the current plan ($5 billion)

for development is climate resilient

Change in national road network length relative to

baseline, 2050 (%)

Global Wet -16.1 Global Dry -22.4 Local Wet -11.9

Local Dry -2.1

The overall impact of severe rainfall events would be substantial, in part because of the

importance of current and required investments in the sector

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: IMPACTS AND IMPLICATIONS

1.5% Agricultural GDP loss by 2040-2050

~1 million people at risk of displacement from coastal zones

Climate Change Effects on Yields

Loss of Coastal Land and Displacement

7

Recommended Climate-Specific Interventions

River basin management Agricultural research &

extension Seal unpaved roads It is not cost effective to protect

the vast majority of coastal regions of Mozambique. High value and vulnerable locations, merit specific

consideration as even relatively small levels of sea level rise dramatically increase the probability of severe storm surge events

The City of Beira

CLIMATE INVESTMENT FUNDS (CIF) Structure

Strategic Climate Fund Targeted programs with dedicated funding

to pilot new approaches with potential for scaling up

Pilot Program for Climate Resilience

Mainstream

climate resilience into core

development planning

Forest Investment

Program

Reduce emissions from

deforestation and forest degradation

Scaling Up Renewable

Energy in Low Income

Countries

Initiate transformational change by use of renewable energy

±$2.0 billion

PILOT PROGRAM FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE (PPCR)

Purpose To help highly vulnerable countries pilot and demonstrate

ways to integrate climate risk and resilience into core development planning while complementing other ongoing activities.

Scale $1 billion in pledges, mainly grants with option to augment

with IDA-like/highly concessional resources.

Governance Sub-Committee: Australia/UK, Bangladesh, Canada,

Denmark/Norway, Germany, Jamaica, Japan, Samoa, Tajikistan, USA, Yemen, Zambia, the Adaptation Fund Board + observers (4 civil society, 2 indigenous peoples, 2 private sector, 1 rep. of community dependent on adaptation approaches), GEF, UNDP, UNEP, UNFCCC

Partnership Multilateral Development Banks (AfDB, ADB, EBRD, IDB,

and WBG) to support adaptation in a coherent and integrated way

Measuring Success • Increased capacity to integrate climate

resilience into development • Increased awareness of vulnerabilities

and potential impacts • Scaled-up investments for broader

interventions and programming • Improved coordination among

stakeholders • Capture & transfer of lessons learned

Pilot Programs Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cambodia, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger, Tajikistan, Yemen, Zambia -- 2 regional programs in Caribbean (Haiti, Jamaica and OECS countries) and South Pacific (Tonga, Samoa, PNG).

Climate change and national development goals and priorities

Five Year Government Plan

(2010-2014)

Poverty Reduction Strategy (2011-2014)

Inclusive Economic growth

for Poverty reduction

7-8% (yr) 12% (four years)

Foster human and social

development

Promote employment

Boost production and productivity in

agriculture and fisheries

Mainstreaming of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction

Alignment of National priorities: NAPA versus PPCR

Priorities of NAPA

Hydrometeorological services

SPCR Projects

Agriculture and Food security

DPO (Energy sector strategy)

Coastal cities and climate change

Land, water and natural resources

Disasters Prevention/ Early warning

Agriculture

Coastal zones/Erosion

Environment and water resources

Credit lines

Energy

Forestry and Tourism

Capacity building Program

management/Technical assistance

PPCR Objectives

Build national capacity for climate change adaptation though transformational pilot investments

Finance investments in

infrastructures and economic sectors

Demonstrate how to mainstream climate change in national policies, plans and

strategies

Fill in the gaps in knowledge and

national dialogue on climate

change

The Three Pillars of the SPCR 15

Pillar 3 Program and Knowledge

Management

•SPCR management and coordination

•Monitoring frameworks

•Knowledge management

•Evidence building

•Capacity-building

Pillar 2

Pilot Investments

•Roads

•Agriculture & water resources

•Coastal cities

•Private sector investment in forestry and micro-irrigation

Pillar 2: Piloting Climate Resilient Investments at Scale

Blended

Zambezi Valley: Floods

Climate resilient rural roads

Developing hydro-meteorological systems

Coastal vulnerability

Developing climate resilience of Beira city

Limpopo Watershed: Droughts

Climate resilient agriculture,

Community-based NRM in drought affected watersheds

Credit lines for private investment in micro-irrigation

Non Blended Forests management

Building climate resilience through private investment in sustainable forest management and tourism

16

Studies and Knowledge: Filling in the gaps

Studies under preparation

(PPCR phase I)

Future studies (PPCR phase

II)

Private sector

Public sector

Municipalities Coastal protection in Beira

Health and Social protection

Roads (Zambezi) and Livelihoods

(Limpopo)

Ports, urban water, Forestry, Tourism

Vulnerability and adaptation needs

Introducing Climate Resilience (20 percent) in WB IDA 16 Mozambique Portfolio

New Africa regional Strategy Pillar II: Vulnerability and Resilience

New Mozambique CPS (IDA $800 million) Results Area 6: Improved resiliency to natural disasters, climate change

PPCR($50million) /IDA ($60 million) DRM Plan ($5 million) /GEF ($ 10 million)

Investments in Sectors (urban, transport, water, agriculture)

Technical Assistance on Budget and

Planning

CC DPO ($100 million)

Policy Reforms

Prime Minister

SD Council

MPD

PPCR/NDF ($120 million)

Hydromets Coastal Cities

Roads and

Bridges

Irrigation (AfDB)

Micro Credit and Weather

Insurance (IFC)

CC DPO ($120 million)

DFID TA ($3 million)

MICOA

ESP2 ($34 million)

DRR Council

INGC

AAP ($3 million)

Country DRM ($up

to 5 million)

G-19

NGO

WB

Institutional Arrangements and Donor Coordination

Websites

www.worldbank.org/eacc www.climateinvestmentfunds.org web.worldbank.org/mozambique