1DAOS Meeting 27-28 October 2015 Beijing

Year of Polar Prediction

• There has been a growing interest in the Polar Regions in recent years, because of concerns about the amplification of anthropogenic climate change in these areas, and the effects of polar teleconnections on lower latitude weather at medium and seasonal range. Furthermore, increased economic and transportation activities in polar regions due to thinning Arctic sea-ice are leading to more demands for sustained and improved availability of integrated observational and predictive weather, climate and water information to support decision-making. However, partly as a result of a strong emphasis of previous international efforts on lower and middle latitudes, gaps in weather, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting in polar regions hamper reliable decision making.

• The aim of the WWRP Polar Prediction Project (WWRP-PPP) therefore is to “Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the Polar Regions, on time scales from hours to seasonal.”

2DAOS Meeting 27-28 October 2015 Beijing

Year of Polar Prediction

1) Improve the understanding of the requirements for, and evaluate the benefits of, enhanced prediction information and services in polar regions2) Establish and apply verification methods appropriate for polar regions3) Provide guidance on optimizing polar observing systems, and coordinate additional observations to support modelling and verification4) Improve representation of key processes in models of the polar atmosphere, land, ocean and cryosphere5) Develop data assimilation systems that account for the unique characteristics of polar regions6) Develop and exploit ensemble prediction systems with appropriate representation of initial condition and model uncertainty for polar regions7) Determine predictability and identify key sources of forecast errors in polar regions8) Improve knowledge of two-way linkages between polar and lower latitudes, and their implications for global prediction

3DAOS Meeting 27-28 October 2015 Beijing

Year of Polar Prediction

• Polar Prediction Project (PPP) provides endorsement for projects, programmes and initiatives that plan to contribute to the aims of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

• The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Summit was held 13–15 July 2015 at WMO• Summit was attended by 116 participants from 20 different nations including scientists,

stakeholders, as well as representatives from operational weather and climate prediction centres, international bodies and funding agencies

• Strategic relevance of enhanced polar predictive capacity• Series of plenary panel presentations and open discussions

User-relevant aspects YOPP observing component YOPP modelling, data assimilation and forecasting component YOPP data component YOPP education and outreach component

• A total of 26 representatives from partners such as international programmes, institutions and space agencies presented their expectations of YOPP, made suggestions on how they could contribute, and formulated specific recommendations to improve the programme

4DAOS Meeting 27-28 October 2015 Beijing

Year of Polar Prediction Goal

• Bringing scientists (from different stages of their career), stakeholders, as well as representatives from operational weather and climate prediction centres, international bodies and funding agencies from different countries together who have a shared interest in advancing predictive capacity in polar regions and beyond

• More prominence to land and the hydrological cycle YOPP activities in the Southern Hemisphere needs to be increased Stronger coordination is needed

• A number of important commitments and contributions to YOPP were offered at the Summit

Climate and Cryosphere Programme (CliC) of WCRP Met Norway, which offered to contribute to the development of a YOPP data

portal based on the GCW experience IASOA is in the process of designing a coordinated experiment plan for enhanced

observations across their network during YOPP (e.g. 4xdaily radiosonde launches)

5DAOS Meeting 27-28 October 2015 Beijing

Year of Polar Prediction

6DAOS Meeting 27-28 October 2015 Beijing

Year of Polar Prediction IOP• The main YOPP period is scheduled from mid-2017 to mid-2019: two intensive

observing periods (IOPs), both for the Arctic and Antarctica SH accurate predictions during austral summer Dec 2018 – Feb 2019 NH two IOPs in the Arctic, with one covering a full open-water season and one

focusing on wintertime: 1. early summer to ensure that sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions of

summer time conditions, when most of economic activities take place, are well initialized

2. enhance observational capacity from June to September to improve summer predictions on shorter time scales (hours to days)

3. It was strongly argued for extending the first IOP to late autumn, since it is in late autumn that atmosphere-sea ice-ocean interactions are most vigorous with implications for sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions, both in the Arctic and lower-latitudes, and to capture the full open water season for operational forecasting needs

4. Second IOP shorter, covering the boreal winter (January to March), intended to address topics such a polar lows, snow prediction and initialization of seasonal and longer-term predictions

• Within these IOPs, a number of special well-coordinated campaigns (e.g. aircraft) will be embedded

• Two IOP planning groups: Arctic (lead by Chris Fairall and Ian Renfrew), Antarctic (lead by David Bromwich)

7DAOS Meeting 27-28 October 2015 Beijing

Year of Polar Prediction Recommendation

• YOPP IOPs: it was recommended that all GTS compatible observations during YOPP be utilized in data assimilation for NWP models, and not be held back for future verification studies

• Data denial experiments and/or verification against observations not assimilated could be performed during the YOPP consolidation phase

• end-user engagement and social science applications will operate independently of IOPs, starting in 2017 and extending into the YOPP consolidation phase

• YOPP data would be stored in one single data archive with a structure designed in consideration of verification requirements

• encouraging real-time verification against GTS observations during YOPP by exploiting existing resources/facilities already available in major operational centers (e.g., ECMWF, CBS ET-OWFPS)

• During the YOPP consolidation phase, summary verification to monitor and compare pre- and post-YOPP prediction should be coordinated and centralized amongst few key centres (e.g., Environment Canada)

• Research should focus to assess the impacts of YOPP enhanced prediction from the polar regions to mid-latitudes. Moreover, uncertainty associated with observations and analyses should be accounted for in verification practices, and compared with model uncertainties