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Danske Bank UBS Investor meeting Tonny T. Andersen, CFO Danske Bank 21 September 2004

Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Page 1: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

Danske Bank

UBS Investor meeting

Tonny T. Andersen, CFO Danske Bank

21 September 2004

Page 2: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Agenda

� Scandinavian economies

� Danske Bank profile and Strategy

� Financial performance

� Capital and risk management

Page 3: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Simultaneous activity upswings driven by privateconsumption in Denmark and Norway

0504030201009998979695

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6

5

4

3

2

1

0

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

% y/y % y/y

../figurbibliotek/

Denmark

Sweden

Norway

Euroland

1. Scandinavian economies

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4

2

0

-2

6

4

2

0

-2

% y/y % y/y

../figurbibliotek/

Denmark

SwedenNorway

Euroland

GDP (y/y)

Private consumption(y/y)

Page 4: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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But Sweden is primarily driven by exports

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10

8

6

4

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-2

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12

10

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% y/y % y/y

../figurbibliotek/

DenmarkSweden

Norway

Euroland

1. Scandinavian economies

Page 5: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Danske Bank- a leading Nordic bank

Legal Structure

Life and PensionsMortgage credit(Aaa)* (AA-)**

*Moody�s rating

**Standard & Poor�s rating

(AA-)**

� Market cap: 94bn DKr

� Total assets: 1,827bn DKr

� 3m retail customers

� 150,000 corporate customers

� High ratings (AAA)**

(Aa1)*

2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy

Page 6: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Nordic business model

BrandingRetail

BankingCorporate

BankingFully

integrated ITCentral

Back office

Local Central

2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy

Page 7: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Danske Bank Business universe- Strong market position

Market position #1(lending)

28%

Part of earnings 46%

Life & Pension

Mortgagebusiness

Market position #1(stock)

35%

Part of earnings 18%

Market position #1(premiums)

34%

Part of earnings 8%

Banking Activities Denmark

Market position #4(lending)

4%

Part of earnings 4%

Market position #5(lending)

8%

Part of earnings 6%

Banking activities Norway

Banking activities Sweden

Market position #1(depending on segment)

app. 30%

Part of earnings 10%

Danske Markets

2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy

Page 8: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Nordic Banking Groups- Danske Bank - the best rated Nordic Banking Group

Long Term Rating S&P Moody's

Danske Bank AA- Aa1

Handelsbanken A+ [*] Aa1

Nordea A+ Aa3

Swedbank A Aa3 [*]

SEB A Aa3

DnB NOR A [*] Aa3

[*] Positive Outlook

Source: S&P, Moody's

02468

1012141618

Nordea

Danske Bank

SHB

DnB NOR

Swedbank

SEB

Bn EURO

2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy

Page 9: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Danske Bank -A defensive and low risk share

LILLI stands for �leading indicator of leading indicators� and is a Merrill Lynch proprietary data set. Source: Merrill Lynch, Datastream

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

ML Lilli %6mDanske Rel to World %6m

2. Danske Bank Profile

Page 10: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Lower volatility than peers

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

DanskeBank

SHB FSB Nordea SEB DnB

Volatility in Scandinavian banks(2004)

2. Danske Bank Profile

Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004)

Page 11: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

11

Danske Bank less sensitive tocompetition in the mortgage market

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

DanskeBank

SEB Nordea SHB Swedbank DnB NOR

Change in EPS from a harmonisation of mortgage spreads to 50bp in the Nordics

Source: ABG

2. Danske Bank Profile

Page 12: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

12

Scandinavia

Norway>10% growth

No. 1 in customer satisfactionMarket share target: 10%

Good opportunities for organic growth

Sweden>10% growth

No. 1 in customer satisfactionMarket share target: 10%

Good opportunities for organic growth

Denmark>10% lending growth

Recovery of market shares forbanking and mortgage finance

Good growth opportunities for Danica

Financial targets

� Solvency of about 9.5%

� Core (tier 1) of about 7.0%

� Payout ratio of about 50%

� Cost/income ratio of 50%

� Competitive return

2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy

Page 13: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

13

Innovation in Retail- New products are contributing to core earnings

Customer packages in Banking Activities Denmark

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

Q22002

Q32002

Q42002

Q12003

Q22003

Q32003

Q42003

Q12004

Q22004

Num

ber

of p

acka

ges

Packages in Danske Bank brand Packages in BG Bank brand

Open plan products in Banking Activities Denmark

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May

Bill

ions

Danske Prioritet BG Bolig Plus

Unit link volume

1,2

3,3

5,8

7,1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2001 2002 2003 1H 2004

Bill

ions

Unit link volume

Core earnings supported by stronggrowth in sales of new products i.e.

� Open plan� Customer packages� Unit link

2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy

Page 14: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

14

Take off for Swedish franchise- Local presence with a central backbone

Sweden

Branches, 46 total0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2001 2002 2003 1H2004

0

20

40

60

80

100

120<<Branch openings*Lending>>

SEK bn

*Accumulated

2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy

Retail (42%) Corporate (58%)

Loan book

Page 15: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

15

Take off for Norwegian franchise- Local presence with a central backbone

Norway

7

Branches, 64 total 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2001 2002 2003 1H2004

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65<<Branch openings*Lending>>

NOK bn

*Accumulated

2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy

Retail (53%) Corporate (47%)

Loan book

Page 16: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Five year summary - Significant cost improvement

Branches (�22 pct.)

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2001 2002 2003 1H2004

50

55

60

65

2000 2001 2002 2003 1H2004

C/I (� 7.5 pct. points)

Employees (�17 pct.)

15,000

17,500

20,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 1H2004

5000

10000

15000

20000

2000 2001 2002 2003 1H 2004

Costs (� 8 pct.)DKr m pct.

3. Financial performance

Page 17: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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First half of 2004Core earnings affected by lower interest rates

(DKr m) 1H 2003 1H 2004 Index

Core income 13,872 13,226 95

Expenses 7,494 7,102 95Core earnings before prov. 6,378 6,124 96

Provisions for bad debts 947 452 48

Core earnings 5,431 5,672 104

Earnings from inv. portfolios 1,282 601 47

Profit before tax 6,713 6,273 93

Tax 1,910 1,850 97

Net profit for the period 4,803 4,423 92

Net profit for the period ���� 8% to DKr 4.4bn

� Core income declined 5%

� Operating expenses and depreciation fell 5%

� Provisions for bad & doubtful debts remain

low

� Acceptable return on investment portfolios,

given market conditions

Loans ex repos (end-period)

(local currency, bn) 2003 1H 2004 Index

Danske Bank - Retail 43 50 117

Danske Bank - Corp. 97 102 105

BG Bank - Retail 24 27 112

BG Bank - Corporate 23 24 102

BA NO - Retail 31 34 110

BA NO - Corporate 29 30 106

BA SE - Retail 33 37 111

BA SE - Corporate 59 65 110

Banking lending ex repos ���� 7%

� Corporate lending picked up again in 1H2004

� Strong growth in retail lending

� Mortgage lending rose 5%

3. Financial performance

Page 18: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Key ratios (%) H1 2003 H1 2004

Net profit as % of avg. share. equity p.a. 15.4 14.3

Core earnings as % of avg. sh. equity p.a. 17.4 18.4

Cost/core income ratio 54.0 53.7

Core (tier1) capital ratio 7.2 7.6

Solvency ratio 10.0 10.4

Earnings per share (DKr) 6.8 6.6

5.0

6.0

7.0

H1 2003 H1 2004

Earnings per share ���� 3%

� Earnings per share for the perioddeclined 3% to DKr6.6

Key figures and ratios- Rise in core earnings in relation to shareholders� equity

Sound ROE, given lower investment returns

� Return on equity fell to 14.3% because of

lower return on investment portfolios

� Rise in core earnings in relation to

shareholders� equity

� C/I ratio held steady despite declining

income

Earnings per shareDKr

YoY � 3%

3. Financial performance

Page 19: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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DKr m

Provisions for bad & doubtful debts- Provisioning level remains low

Accumulated provisions

Provisions for bad & doubtful debts ���� 52%

� Provisions equal 8 bp of loans & guaranteesper annum

� Healthy macroeconomic climate in theNordic region

� Average expected loss over a business cycleof 19 bp per annum

Provisions for bad & doubtful debts

0

200

400

600

800

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2001 2002 2003

Average

2004

11

12

13

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Non-performing loans

0.00

0.10

0.20

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

3

4

5

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Provisions as % of totalloans & guarantees

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004

DKr bn DKr bn %

4. Capital and risk management

Page 20: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Rating distribution - internal ratings- Improved credit quality

� Rating categories 1-4correspond largely to theinvestment grade level ofexternal rating agencies

� Rating categories 9 and 10apply to doubtful and non-performing exposures

Rating distribution

0100200300400500600

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Rating category

Expo

sure

DK

Kbn

Exposure 2003 Exposure 2002

4. Capital and risk management

Page 21: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Mortgage lending- Solid LTV ratios

� Lending is fully match funded with mortgage bonds� Mortgage bonds carry a �triple-A� rating from both S&P and Moody�s

DKK bn. Loans LTVRetail 307 62%Urban trade 61 51%Agriculture 26 45%Residential renting 104 68%Total 498 61%

4. Capital and risk management

Page 22: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Increasing debt burdens - butdecreasing interest rate burdens

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04

% o

f dis

p. in

com

e

Norway Sweden Denmark

4. Capital and risk management

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04

Norway Sweden

Denmark

Debtburden

Interestrateburden

% o

f dis

p. in

com

e

Page 23: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Credit risk- UK and North America dominated by repos

Geographic exposureDKK bn Financial Non-financial TotalDenmark 138 720 857UK 152 48 200North America 128 15 143Sweden 66 70 136Norway 22 56 78Other EU 32 25 56Germany 14 9 24Rest of Europe 6 4 10Asia 8 1 10Eastern Europe 2 2 4Central & South America 0 1 2Pacific Ocean 0 0 1Africa 0 0 0Total 569 952 1,520

4. Capital and risk management

Page 24: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Credit exposure break-down- Three major portfolios

� Low provision and loss ratio in mortgage portfolio� Exposure to high rated customers in financial portfolio

DKK m as at December 31, 2003

Credit-exposure

Weighted Rating

Provisions Loss 2003

Mortgage 498,100 4.2 460 140Financial 549,403 2.9 1,936 239Non financial 472,903 4.5 10,294 1,870Total 1,520,406 3.8 12,690 2,249

4. Capital and risk management

Page 25: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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675

750

825

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

(as % of RWA) Target H1 2004

Core capital 6.5 7,0

Hybrid capital 0.5 0,6

Core (tier 1) capital ratio 7.0 7,6

Supplementary capital 2.5 2,8

Solvency ratio 9.5 10,4

Capitalisation 1H 2004- Hybrid capital raised and share repurchase executed

Capital targets and actual levels, H1 2004Active capital management continues

� Increased use of capital for organic growth

� $750m in hybrid capital raised

� Share repurchases worth DKr3bn, includingDKr0.5bn in the July 1-13 period

� Additional buybacks for DKr3bn in H2 2004

� Use of internal risk models

Risk-weighted assets(end-period)

48

52

56

60

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

DKr bn

Core capital after statutory deduc-tions & capital needs (6.5% of RWA)

Core capital afterstatutory deductions

6.5% of RWA

DKr bn

2001 2002 2003 2004

Loans ex repos (end-period)

(local currency, bn) 2003 H1 2004 Index

Danske Bank - Retail 43 50 117

Danske Bank - Corp. 97 102 105

BG Bank - Retail 24 27 112

BG Bank - Corporate 23 24 102

BA NO - Retail 31 34 110

BA NO - Corporate 29 30 106

BA SE - Retail 33 37 111

BA SE - Corporate 59 65 1102003 2004

RWA ex market risk in thetrading portfolio

Total RWA

Effect ofinternalmodels

4. Capital and risk management

Page 26: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Capital ManagementSuccessful issue of Hybrid Capital

� Danske Bank launched a $750m perpetual

capital securities transaction

� The first Danish Tier I issue ever

� Achieved aggressive pricing versus peers

� Over six times oversubscribed

OtherEurope

6%

US88%

Asia1%

UK5%

Investor allocation

4. Capital and risk management

Page 27: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Danske Bank�s Tier I has shown a good performance inthe after-market

US$ Tier 1: Spread to Treasuries

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

4-Jun 4-Jul 4-Aug 4-Sep

Sp

read

to

US

T (b

p)

RBS '13 (A1/A) Rabobank '13 (Aa2/AA) SEB '14 (A2/BBB+) Danske '14 (Aa3/A)

4. Capital and risk management

Page 28: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Subordinated debt- Limited issuance activity planned for 2004 and 2005

0%

25%

50%

75%

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

JPY

EUR

GBP

USD

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Acc. run off in eligiblesubordinated debt

4. Capital and risk management

Page 29: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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28%

31%

23%

11%

7%

3%

30%

28%

13%

18%

8%

Balance sheet � Danske Bank Group

OtherCredit inst.

Deposits

Mortgage bonds

Equity

Issued bonds

Mortgage loans

Bank loans etc.

Credit inst.Other

Bonds

Liabilities Assets

4. Capital and risk management

Page 30: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

30

0

25

50

75

100

US CP ECP EMTN UK CD USD CD FIM CD NOKCP

SEK CP SEKMTN

Utilisation of funding programmes

4. Capital and risk management

Dkr. bn Programme limit

Utilised amount

June 2004

Page 31: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

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Key points

� Strong financial group

� Solid franchise in Scandinavia

� Focus on:� Cost management

� Capital management

� Risk management

Page 32: Danske Bank · UBS Investor meeting ... Part of earnings 46% Life & Pension Mortgage business ... Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004) 11

www.danskebank.com/debtinvestors