Upload
ngothien
View
219
Download
5
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Danske Bank
UBS Investor meeting
Tonny T. Andersen, CFO Danske Bank
21 September 2004
2
Agenda
� Scandinavian economies
� Danske Bank profile and Strategy
� Financial performance
� Capital and risk management
3
Simultaneous activity upswings driven by privateconsumption in Denmark and Norway
0504030201009998979695
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
% y/y % y/y
../figurbibliotek/
Denmark
Sweden
Norway
Euroland
1. Scandinavian economies
0504030201009998979695
6
4
2
0
-2
6
4
2
0
-2
% y/y % y/y
../figurbibliotek/
Denmark
SwedenNorway
Euroland
GDP (y/y)
Private consumption(y/y)
4
But Sweden is primarily driven by exports
0504030201009998979695
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
% y/y % y/y
../figurbibliotek/
DenmarkSweden
Norway
Euroland
1. Scandinavian economies
5
Danske Bank- a leading Nordic bank
Legal Structure
Life and PensionsMortgage credit(Aaa)* (AA-)**
*Moody�s rating
**Standard & Poor�s rating
(AA-)**
� Market cap: 94bn DKr
� Total assets: 1,827bn DKr
� 3m retail customers
� 150,000 corporate customers
� High ratings (AAA)**
(Aa1)*
2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy
6
Nordic business model
BrandingRetail
BankingCorporate
BankingFully
integrated ITCentral
Back office
Local Central
2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy
7
Danske Bank Business universe- Strong market position
Market position #1(lending)
28%
Part of earnings 46%
Life & Pension
Mortgagebusiness
Market position #1(stock)
35%
Part of earnings 18%
Market position #1(premiums)
34%
Part of earnings 8%
Banking Activities Denmark
Market position #4(lending)
4%
Part of earnings 4%
Market position #5(lending)
8%
Part of earnings 6%
Banking activities Norway
Banking activities Sweden
Market position #1(depending on segment)
app. 30%
Part of earnings 10%
Danske Markets
2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy
8
Nordic Banking Groups- Danske Bank - the best rated Nordic Banking Group
Long Term Rating S&P Moody's
Danske Bank AA- Aa1
Handelsbanken A+ [*] Aa1
Nordea A+ Aa3
Swedbank A Aa3 [*]
SEB A Aa3
DnB NOR A [*] Aa3
[*] Positive Outlook
Source: S&P, Moody's
02468
1012141618
Nordea
Danske Bank
SHB
DnB NOR
Swedbank
SEB
Bn EURO
2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy
9
Danske Bank -A defensive and low risk share
LILLI stands for �leading indicator of leading indicators� and is a Merrill Lynch proprietary data set. Source: Merrill Lynch, Datastream
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
ML Lilli %6mDanske Rel to World %6m
2. Danske Bank Profile
10
Lower volatility than peers
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
DanskeBank
SHB FSB Nordea SEB DnB
Volatility in Scandinavian banks(2004)
2. Danske Bank Profile
Annualised volatility based on daily share prices (y-t-d 2004)
11
Danske Bank less sensitive tocompetition in the mortgage market
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
DanskeBank
SEB Nordea SHB Swedbank DnB NOR
Change in EPS from a harmonisation of mortgage spreads to 50bp in the Nordics
Source: ABG
2. Danske Bank Profile
12
Scandinavia
Norway>10% growth
No. 1 in customer satisfactionMarket share target: 10%
Good opportunities for organic growth
Sweden>10% growth
No. 1 in customer satisfactionMarket share target: 10%
Good opportunities for organic growth
Denmark>10% lending growth
Recovery of market shares forbanking and mortgage finance
Good growth opportunities for Danica
Financial targets
� Solvency of about 9.5%
� Core (tier 1) of about 7.0%
� Payout ratio of about 50%
� Cost/income ratio of 50%
� Competitive return
2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy
13
Innovation in Retail- New products are contributing to core earnings
Customer packages in Banking Activities Denmark
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
Q22002
Q32002
Q42002
Q12003
Q22003
Q32003
Q42003
Q12004
Q22004
Num
ber
of p
acka
ges
Packages in Danske Bank brand Packages in BG Bank brand
Open plan products in Banking Activities Denmark
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May
Bill
ions
Danske Prioritet BG Bolig Plus
Unit link volume
1,2
3,3
5,8
7,1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2001 2002 2003 1H 2004
Bill
ions
Unit link volume
Core earnings supported by stronggrowth in sales of new products i.e.
� Open plan� Customer packages� Unit link
2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy
14
Take off for Swedish franchise- Local presence with a central backbone
Sweden
Branches, 46 total0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2001 2002 2003 1H2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
120<<Branch openings*Lending>>
SEK bn
*Accumulated
2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy
Retail (42%) Corporate (58%)
Loan book
15
Take off for Norwegian franchise- Local presence with a central backbone
Norway
7
Branches, 64 total 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2001 2002 2003 1H2004
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65<<Branch openings*Lending>>
NOK bn
*Accumulated
2. Danske Bank Profile & Strategy
Retail (53%) Corporate (47%)
Loan book
16
Five year summary - Significant cost improvement
Branches (�22 pct.)
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2001 2002 2003 1H2004
50
55
60
65
2000 2001 2002 2003 1H2004
C/I (� 7.5 pct. points)
Employees (�17 pct.)
15,000
17,500
20,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 1H2004
5000
10000
15000
20000
2000 2001 2002 2003 1H 2004
Costs (� 8 pct.)DKr m pct.
3. Financial performance
17
First half of 2004Core earnings affected by lower interest rates
(DKr m) 1H 2003 1H 2004 Index
Core income 13,872 13,226 95
Expenses 7,494 7,102 95Core earnings before prov. 6,378 6,124 96
Provisions for bad debts 947 452 48
Core earnings 5,431 5,672 104
Earnings from inv. portfolios 1,282 601 47
Profit before tax 6,713 6,273 93
Tax 1,910 1,850 97
Net profit for the period 4,803 4,423 92
Net profit for the period ���� 8% to DKr 4.4bn
� Core income declined 5%
� Operating expenses and depreciation fell 5%
� Provisions for bad & doubtful debts remain
low
� Acceptable return on investment portfolios,
given market conditions
Loans ex repos (end-period)
(local currency, bn) 2003 1H 2004 Index
Danske Bank - Retail 43 50 117
Danske Bank - Corp. 97 102 105
BG Bank - Retail 24 27 112
BG Bank - Corporate 23 24 102
BA NO - Retail 31 34 110
BA NO - Corporate 29 30 106
BA SE - Retail 33 37 111
BA SE - Corporate 59 65 110
Banking lending ex repos ���� 7%
� Corporate lending picked up again in 1H2004
� Strong growth in retail lending
� Mortgage lending rose 5%
3. Financial performance
18
Key ratios (%) H1 2003 H1 2004
Net profit as % of avg. share. equity p.a. 15.4 14.3
Core earnings as % of avg. sh. equity p.a. 17.4 18.4
Cost/core income ratio 54.0 53.7
Core (tier1) capital ratio 7.2 7.6
Solvency ratio 10.0 10.4
Earnings per share (DKr) 6.8 6.6
5.0
6.0
7.0
H1 2003 H1 2004
Earnings per share ���� 3%
� Earnings per share for the perioddeclined 3% to DKr6.6
Key figures and ratios- Rise in core earnings in relation to shareholders� equity
Sound ROE, given lower investment returns
� Return on equity fell to 14.3% because of
lower return on investment portfolios
� Rise in core earnings in relation to
shareholders� equity
� C/I ratio held steady despite declining
income
Earnings per shareDKr
YoY � 3%
3. Financial performance
19
DKr m
Provisions for bad & doubtful debts- Provisioning level remains low
Accumulated provisions
Provisions for bad & doubtful debts ���� 52%
� Provisions equal 8 bp of loans & guaranteesper annum
� Healthy macroeconomic climate in theNordic region
� Average expected loss over a business cycleof 19 bp per annum
Provisions for bad & doubtful debts
0
200
400
600
800
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2001 2002 2003
Average
2004
11
12
13
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Non-performing loans
0.00
0.10
0.20
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
3
4
5
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Provisions as % of totalloans & guarantees
2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004
DKr bn DKr bn %
4. Capital and risk management
20
Rating distribution - internal ratings- Improved credit quality
� Rating categories 1-4correspond largely to theinvestment grade level ofexternal rating agencies
� Rating categories 9 and 10apply to doubtful and non-performing exposures
Rating distribution
0100200300400500600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Rating category
Expo
sure
DK
Kbn
Exposure 2003 Exposure 2002
4. Capital and risk management
21
Mortgage lending- Solid LTV ratios
� Lending is fully match funded with mortgage bonds� Mortgage bonds carry a �triple-A� rating from both S&P and Moody�s
DKK bn. Loans LTVRetail 307 62%Urban trade 61 51%Agriculture 26 45%Residential renting 104 68%Total 498 61%
4. Capital and risk management
22
Increasing debt burdens - butdecreasing interest rate burdens
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04
% o
f dis
p. in
com
e
Norway Sweden Denmark
4. Capital and risk management
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04
Norway Sweden
Denmark
Debtburden
Interestrateburden
% o
f dis
p. in
com
e
23
Credit risk- UK and North America dominated by repos
Geographic exposureDKK bn Financial Non-financial TotalDenmark 138 720 857UK 152 48 200North America 128 15 143Sweden 66 70 136Norway 22 56 78Other EU 32 25 56Germany 14 9 24Rest of Europe 6 4 10Asia 8 1 10Eastern Europe 2 2 4Central & South America 0 1 2Pacific Ocean 0 0 1Africa 0 0 0Total 569 952 1,520
4. Capital and risk management
24
Credit exposure break-down- Three major portfolios
� Low provision and loss ratio in mortgage portfolio� Exposure to high rated customers in financial portfolio
DKK m as at December 31, 2003
Credit-exposure
Weighted Rating
Provisions Loss 2003
Mortgage 498,100 4.2 460 140Financial 549,403 2.9 1,936 239Non financial 472,903 4.5 10,294 1,870Total 1,520,406 3.8 12,690 2,249
4. Capital and risk management
25
675
750
825
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
(as % of RWA) Target H1 2004
Core capital 6.5 7,0
Hybrid capital 0.5 0,6
Core (tier 1) capital ratio 7.0 7,6
Supplementary capital 2.5 2,8
Solvency ratio 9.5 10,4
Capitalisation 1H 2004- Hybrid capital raised and share repurchase executed
Capital targets and actual levels, H1 2004Active capital management continues
� Increased use of capital for organic growth
� $750m in hybrid capital raised
� Share repurchases worth DKr3bn, includingDKr0.5bn in the July 1-13 period
� Additional buybacks for DKr3bn in H2 2004
� Use of internal risk models
Risk-weighted assets(end-period)
48
52
56
60
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
DKr bn
Core capital after statutory deduc-tions & capital needs (6.5% of RWA)
Core capital afterstatutory deductions
6.5% of RWA
DKr bn
2001 2002 2003 2004
Loans ex repos (end-period)
(local currency, bn) 2003 H1 2004 Index
Danske Bank - Retail 43 50 117
Danske Bank - Corp. 97 102 105
BG Bank - Retail 24 27 112
BG Bank - Corporate 23 24 102
BA NO - Retail 31 34 110
BA NO - Corporate 29 30 106
BA SE - Retail 33 37 111
BA SE - Corporate 59 65 1102003 2004
RWA ex market risk in thetrading portfolio
Total RWA
Effect ofinternalmodels
4. Capital and risk management
26
Capital ManagementSuccessful issue of Hybrid Capital
� Danske Bank launched a $750m perpetual
capital securities transaction
� The first Danish Tier I issue ever
� Achieved aggressive pricing versus peers
� Over six times oversubscribed
OtherEurope
6%
US88%
Asia1%
UK5%
Investor allocation
4. Capital and risk management
27
Danske Bank�s Tier I has shown a good performance inthe after-market
US$ Tier 1: Spread to Treasuries
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
4-Jun 4-Jul 4-Aug 4-Sep
Sp
read
to
US
T (b
p)
RBS '13 (A1/A) Rabobank '13 (Aa2/AA) SEB '14 (A2/BBB+) Danske '14 (Aa3/A)
4. Capital and risk management
28
Subordinated debt- Limited issuance activity planned for 2004 and 2005
0%
25%
50%
75%
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
JPY
EUR
GBP
USD
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Acc. run off in eligiblesubordinated debt
4. Capital and risk management
29
28%
31%
23%
11%
7%
3%
30%
28%
13%
18%
8%
Balance sheet � Danske Bank Group
OtherCredit inst.
Deposits
Mortgage bonds
Equity
Issued bonds
Mortgage loans
Bank loans etc.
Credit inst.Other
Bonds
Liabilities Assets
4. Capital and risk management
30
0
25
50
75
100
US CP ECP EMTN UK CD USD CD FIM CD NOKCP
SEK CP SEKMTN
Utilisation of funding programmes
4. Capital and risk management
Dkr. bn Programme limit
Utilised amount
June 2004
31
Key points
� Strong financial group
� Solid franchise in Scandinavia
� Focus on:� Cost management
� Capital management
� Risk management
www.danskebank.com/debtinvestors