Daily Research Reports - Moneylicious · 1.Bears can hang on their hopes as rising crude oil prices are the negative catalysts for our markets. 2.Bears can also hang on their hopes

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Daily Research Reports

e ot f s Ma oT ne eh yT

e ot f s Ma oT ne eh yT

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markets, gold, silver, crude-oil, USD/INR, the Dow Jones index, Hang Seng index, Euro-Dollar, etc. On the next few pages, you can

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Friday22nd February, 2019

CONTENTSCONTENTSMONEYLICIOUS MORNING

TOP PICS COMPASS & NAVIGATORCOMPASS & NAVIGATOR

Title Page No.

Moneylicious Morning 04-08

Top Picks 09-10

Equity Derivatives 11

Compass & Navigator 12-14

Disclaimer 15

The Taste of Money www.moneylicious.in

Moneylicious Morning

Moneylicious and cover international themes for the day. This newsletter is quite popular with traders as it covers the most preferred trading strategy for Sensex/Nifty for the day.

In Chart of the day section, we recommend a stock which is likely to move significantly in the short term, clearly defining the supports, the resistances and bias for the stock.

In a nutshell, Moneylicious Morning covers themes and insights for the day.

Morning newsletter provides insights and themes for Indian equity markets. We also try

Every Things Gets Better With Moneylicious

Nifty Outlook

Intraday

Medium Term

Long Term

Key Levels to Watch

Nifty Support

Nifty Resistance

Pivot Level

Nifty

Outlook for the Day

INDICES

Nifty

Bank Nifty

Nifty Auto Index

Nifty FMCG Index

Nifty Infra Index

Nifty IT Index

Nifty Media Index

Nifty Midcap Index

Nifty Metal Index

Nifty Pharma Index

Nifty Reality Index

Nifty Smallcap Index

Sensex

SGX Nifty



Good Morning & Welcome to Friday's trading action at Dalal Street,

dated 22nd February 2019.

Our call of the day suggests that green will be color of choice for today’s

trade despite SGX Nifty suggesting a flat open or just slightly below the break-

even line.

Digging deeper, the rare shade of green which we have witnessed at our stock

market in last two days will get more prominent if Nifty moves above its key

hurdles at 10,809 mark. Please note, above 10,809, we believe the bears will

get completely knocked down in the ring.

The positive catalysts in favor of bulls:

1.U.S - China trade optimism.

2.Both, the FIIs and the DIIs camp were net buyers in yesterday's trade.

3.MPC minutes reading suggests switch from hawkish to dovish on

backdrop of lower-than-expected inflation and signs of a slowdown in

growth.

4.Boosting trading sentiments at Dalal Street would be the government's

approval of recapitalization of Rs 48,239 crore in 12 public sector bank.

This decision is welcome and quite positive as it comes at a time when

NBFCs are facing liquidity issue, and most importantly, the capital will

help banks to be out of PCA norms so that lending can pick up and

increase market share of public sector banks specially the recent banks

which have exited PCA.

If you recollect, the government in December 2018 had infused Rs 28,615

crore into seven public sector.

The negative catalysts in favor of bears:

1.Bears can hang on their hopes as rising crude oil prices are the negative

catalysts for our markets.

2.Bears can also hang on their hopes on overall economic activity in the

eurozone which has slowed more sharply as eurozone manufacturing

enters first downturn since Mid-2013. You can blame it to trade frictions

and uncertainty about the severity of China’s economic slowdown.

3.Worldwide stock markets have failed to move substantially following the

release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting.

Fed’s January policy meeting signaled that the economic outlook is

increasingly uncertain.

4.The border tension which has been gripping our stock markets since last

Thursday on wake of terrorist attack in Pulwana, Kashmir.

Long story short: The bears’ case crumbles above Nifty 10809 mark.

And if you are from long term investors’ camp; then should recall Mr.

10735 1.24%

26955 1.01%

8122 0.60%

29053 0.15%

2901 1.72%

15609 1.80%

2361 0.17%

4468 0.88%

2765 2.80%

8606 0.63%

229 0.26%

5745 1.06%

35756 1.14%

10756 -0.10%

Buy on dips

Positive (10689-10809)

Neutral (10379-11001)

Positive (11501)

10689 & 10583

10809 & 10921

10501



Technical StrategySpock’s infamous line “a difference that makes no difference is not

a difference”.

The bottom line? These days, there are plenty of things to worry about in

near term at Dalal Street. But the timing of timing of tremors related to

geopolitical tensions is probably not one of them, if you are long term buy-

and-hold investor.

We say so because; it will be a cakewalk for Indian investors as sentiments

are bound to be uplifted, on any hints with regards to BJP getting re-elected,

or any amicable resolution between U.S-China trade truce bring back global

economies in growth trajectory.

Outlook for Friday: Nifty may start a little lower. Becalmed.

Stepping back and reviewing yesterday’s trade, the surge can be attributed to

short covering and bargain hunting as trade-talk euphoria was seen as key

positive catalyst.

So, all the more reason to pay attention to talks between U.S and

Chinese negotiators that are aimed at ending a trade war between

the world’s largest economies.

Risk appetite on the buy side will be the preferred theme at Dalal Street as

long as Nifty trades above its interweek support at 10,583 mark. Momentum

will be back in action, if Nifty is able to move above its immediate hurdles at

10809 mark. The key trigger 'Morning Star' formation on daily charts.

Daily Chart of Nifty:

STOCKS TO WATCH:

• Our chart of the day suggests establishing long positions in stocks like

MFSL, EXIDE INDUSTRIES and LEMON TREE with interweek

perspective.

• BULLISH STOCKS: REC, PFC, MINDTREE, RELAINCE INDUSTRIES,

UPL, SRF, DLF, BATA, Dr. LAL PATH LABS, ASIAN PAINTS, TATA STEEL,

TEAMLEASE, PI INDUSTRIES.

Technically, Engineers’ India's stock price

pattern appears ugly at current levels.

The momentum oscillators are in sell

mode signaling further sharp down move.

The stock price is signaling a break down

from a probable lower consolidation zone

on daily charts with a probable resistance

at psychological 125 mark. The stock is

witnessing selling pressure after

consolidating between 108-129 zone for

past 4-months. Major weakness on cards

below its intermediate October 2018 low

at 100.

Also the recent sequence of lower highs /

lows is intact in the weekly and monthly

charts with a probable reverse flag,

indicating further weakness. Reverse

divergences on weekly and monthly

charts along with weakening momentum

likely to work as negative catalyst for the

stock. The stock is likely to be a big

underperformer going forward. The 200-

DMA of the stock is placed at 125 zone and

this level shall act as strong resistance.

Establishing short positions between 109-

111 zone should be the preferred trading

strategy, targeting October 2018 lows at

100 and then at 87-89 zone. Stop above

117.45. Holding Period: 1 Month.

ENGINEERS INDIA

Action

Target

Support

Resistance

Holding Period

106.2

SELL ON EARLY STRENGTH

100

100/89

113/121

21 Days



• BEARISH STOCKS: HPCL, IOC, ACC, AMBUJA CEMENTS, CUMMINS, KSCL, MCX, NALCO, INFRATEL, YES BANK,

INFY, COAL INDIA.

• SHOW ME THE MONEY: BUY PFC (CMP 110.45) PFC is seen signaling a breakout from a probable 'higher

consolidation zone' on daily charts. Key interweek support seen at 99. Strength seen above 111. Interweek Strategy:

Buy between 106-108 zone, targeting 111 zone and then aggressive targets at 117.50 zone. Stop below 103.95.

Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: ADANI ENT, ADANI POWER, ALBK, IDBI, JETAIRWAYS, KSCL, PC

JEWELLER, RELCAP, RELIANCE INFRA, RPOWER

FII/DII & OPTIONS DATA:

• As per Thursday’s provisional data available on the NSE, FII’s bought shares worth Rs. 55.48 crores in the Indian Equity

Market while DIIs too bought shares worth Rs. 202.10 crores in the Indian Equity market.

• As per option data, for Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11000 Strike Price, followed by 10900 Strike

Price for 28th February Series. Short covering was seen at strike prices 10600-10800. Maximum Put Open Interest (OI)

was seen at strike price 10700 followed by 10400 strike price for 28th February series. Short buildup was seen at strike

prices 10500-10800.

GLOBAL CUES:

• Wall Street traded lower in yesterday's trade, following a slightly positive Wednesday, pressured by some lackluster

earnings reports and downbeat manufacturing data out of Europe.

MACRO EVENTS:

• The government's approved recapitalization of Rs 48,239 crore in 12 public sector bank. This decision is welcome and

quite positive as it comes at a time when NBFCs are facing liquidity issue, and most importantly, the capital will help

banks to be out of PCA norms so that lending can pick up and increase market share of public sector banks specially the

recent banks which have exited PCA.

• The government will pump:

• Rs 6,896 crore in Allahabad Bank.

• Rs 4,112 crore in Union Bank

• Rs 4,638 crore in Bank of India.

• Rs 205 crore in Bank of Maharashtra

• Rs 9,086 crore in Corporation Bank.

• Rs 3,256 crore in Andhra Bank

• Rs 1,603 crore in Syndicate Bank

• Rs 5,908 crore in Punjab National Bank

• Rs 2,560 crore in Central Bank of India.



COMMODITY CUES:

• MCX GOLD (33555): Interweek strategy: Buy on dips between 33451-33501 zone, targeting 33901 and then at 34300

and then finally at 34751-35001 zone with stop at 33101.

• MCX CRUDE-OIL (4075): Confirmation of strength only above 4111. Interweek strategy: Buy between 3951-4000 zone,

targeting 4111 mark and then aggressive targets at 4250-4315 zone with stop at 3851.

• MCX COPPER (455): Interweek strategy: Establish buy positions between 443-445 zone, targeting 457 mark and then

aggressive targets at 469-475 zone with stop at 439.

CURRENCIES & BONDS:

• In Thursday's trade, the Indian Rupee weakened by 9 paise against the dollar to close at 71.27.

Technically, USD/INR faces major hurdles at 72.50. Support now seen at 70.45. Major strength seen above 72.50.

Range bound movement quite likely. Interweek Strategy: Aggressive traders should look to buy only on any corrective

declines near 70.75-70.90 zone, targeting 72.45 and then aggressive targets at 74 with stop below 70.08.

WHAT TECHNICALS TELLS US ON NIFTY:

• In Thursday's trade, the benchmark Nifty continued its rebound, shaking over some more negativity surrounding Dalal

Street, and most importantly rose for the second day in a row.

• Nifty ended reclaimed the psychological 10800 mark in intraday trade but ended at 10790 and now well above its key

support at 10583 mark.

• The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was positive. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 1% and the

BSE Small-Cap index too inched up 1.44%.

• The technical landscape suggests 'Morning Star' pattern on daily charts. More confirmation on buy side

only above 10809 mark.

• Technically speaking, medium term supports on Nifty are placed at 10583 zone. Only on any move below 10,583 will the

technical conditions deteriorate with aggressive targets at 10,333 mark.

• Intraday support seen at 10721 and then at 10689 mark.

• Intraday hurdles are at 10809 and then major hurdles seen at 10921 mark.

• Medium term hurdles on Nifty at 11,125 mark. Only above 11,125 mark expect massive short covering as newly

optimistic investors to step in above this level.

• The medium term price action for Nifty is suggesting that we are likely to see a 10501-11,001 range in near term with

neutral bias.

Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!!

Biggest hurdles for Nifty at 10809 mark...

Preferred trade on Nifty (10790): Buy between 10721-10745 zone, targeting 10809 and then aggressive targets at

10901-10921 zone with strict stop at 10621.

Preferred trade on Bank Nifty (27052): The biggest near term supports at 26381. Confirmation of strength only above

27751. Buy at CMP, targeting 27251 and then at 27551-27751 zone and finally at 28000 mark with strict stop at 26381.

TOP PICKS (F & O) It's like having investment binoculars !


Moneylicious Top Picks: It's like having Investment binoculars!!

When we want to see what's happening far off, we will reach for the binoculars. The binocular helps us to steer out of danger and also accurately spots our targets.

When it comes to trading / investing, that's exactly how Moneylicious Top Picks helps us to identify the best five momentum stocks for the week. This daily newsletter introduces to the momentum stocks from the list of Future & Option segment, defining their support and resistance levels, and attempts to forecast their movement with a short /medium term perspective.

• Five stocks poised to move.

• Make educated trades.

•The benefits of early-bird investing.

R2STOCKS LTP S1 S2 R1 TRADING STRATEGYBIAS

TOP PICKS (F & O) It's like having investment binoculars !


Oversold technical conditions likely to propel the stock upwards. Key support at 157. Interweek strategy: Establish long positions between 161-163 zone targeting 169-171 and then aggressive targets at 182 with stop at 154.75.

Stock price seen consolidating over last few trading sessions. A break above 2140 could fuel further optimism. Interweek strategy: Establish long positions between 2104-2108 zone, targeting 2136-2140 zone and then aggressive targets at 2175 with stop at 2078.

REC is aiming to move above its 4-weeks higher consolidation zone. The sequence of higher high/low still intact on weekly charts. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 125-127 zone, targeting 131 and then more aggressive targets located at 135-137.50 zone. Stop below 121.

The interweek risk is on the upside with immediate targets at 1275-1281 zone. Momentum oscillators signaling major strength. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 1239-1241 zone, targeting 1261 and then at 1275-1281 zone with stop below 1209.

Momentum oscillators continue to be in buy mode. Key intraday support at 806. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 811-815 zone, targeting 837.50 zone and then at 865-869 zone with stop below 801.

Markets in green. One can simply buy HDFC Bank & Reliance.

DLF

HDFC BANK

REC

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (RIL)

UPL

165.3 157 149 171 182 Positive

2116 2078 2035 2140 2175 Positive

128.35 123.45 117.5 131 137.5 Positive

1246.9 1225 1201 1261 1281 Positive

826.75 806 791 837.5 869 Positive


Derivatives StrategiesChanges in Open Interest (OI) in yesterday’s trade.

Nifty Spot

Bank Nifty Spot

VIX

Premium

Nifty Future OI

Bank Nifty Future OI

Cash Volumes (INR in Cr.)

YesterdayDay Before Yesterday

Derivatives Vol.(INR in Cr.)

No of contracts

Turnover (Rs. In cr.)

BSE Cash Vol. (Rs. in Cr)

NSE Cash Vol.(Rs. in Cr)

NSE Derivative Vol. (Rs. in Cr)

Index Future Volumes

Stock Future Volumes

Index Option Volumes

Stock Option Volumes

Total

Major Changes in Nifty Options (OI)

EQUITY DERIVATIVESLooking into the future from present.

Future Call: BUY HDFC FEBRUARY FUTURES between 1886-1889

zone. Targets at 1921 and then at 1947. Stop: 1859. Holding

Period: Intraday. Analyst’s Remark: Rebound Play (HDFC February

Futures CMP 1895.25).

Option Call: SELL NIFTY 28th FEBRUARY PE strike price 10600 at

CMP 41. Maximum Profit: Rs. 3,075/-. Loss: Unlimited. Stop: Exit

Put option if Nifty moves below 10675. (Nifty February Futures CMP

10807).

10789.85 (+0.51%)

27052.40 (+0.36%)

16.0525 (-5.88%)

+18 vs +21

2.24 crores (+2.96%)

12.38 lakhs (-11.38%)

2160.9 2043.85

28448.32 26796.15

1514786 1011506

231515 16052

829725 47324

23140582 1403888

799173 47522

25000995 1514786

Callsin lakhs (% Change)

10900 29.2 (+10%)

10600 3.16 (-16%)

10950 4.81 (+58%)

Putsin lakhs (% Change)

10700 35.32 (+27%)

10750 9.91 (+15%)

10800 20.05 (+38%)

Friday22nd February, 2019

Market Summary:

• Nifty 28th February Futures ended Thursday's session at a

premium of +18 against +21.

• The Put- Call Open Interest Ratio was at 1.12 for Nifty whereas it

was 1.30 for Bank Nifty.

The Put-Call Volume Ratio was at 0.95 for the Nifty and 0.99 for

Bank Nifty.

• For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11000 Strike

Price, followed by 10900 Strike Price for 28th February Series.

Short covering was seen at strike prices 10600-10800.

• Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 10700

followed by 10400 strike price for 28th February series. Short

buildup was seen at strike prices 10500-10800.

• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 27500

Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 27000

Strike Price.

• As per Thursday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s

bought shares worth Rs. 55.48 crores in the Indian Equity Market.

DIIs too bought shares worth Rs. 202.10 crores in the Indian

Equity market.

• Long Buildup: RELIANCE, ICICI BANK, TECHM, CENTURY, HDFC.

• Short Buildup: BHARAT FIN, DIVIS, CONCOR, MARUTI,

CHOLAFIN.

• Short Covering:L&TFH, MANAPPURAM, HDFC BANK, DLF.

• Long Unwinding: AXIS BANK, BOSCH, COLPAL.

• Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: ADANI ENT, ADANI

POWER, ALBK, IDBI, JETAIRWAYS, KSCL, PC JEWELLER, RELCAP,

RELIANCE INFRA, RPOWER.

• New In Ban: ADANI POWER, ALBK.

• Out of Ban: NIL.


The Compass …Direction at a glance

The Compass:Direction At Glance for MCX Gold, MCX Silver, MCX Crude-oil, USD/INR, etc.

The Navigator:Sailing Global Trend on COMEX Gold, Comex Silver, The Dow Jones Index, Hang Seng Index, etc.

Compass & Navigator is a daily newsletter that provides technical update on all the major instruments of the world like Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, US Dollar Index and USD/INR. We define their support and resistance levels and attempt to forecast their movement with a short / medium term perspective. Also in the report, a trader will find bias for the mentioned instruments.

This newsletter is also quite popular with a market participant who loves to have insight & theme on MCX Gold, MCX Silver as well MCX Crude-Oil.


Instrument TRADING STRATEGYLTP S1 S2 R1 R2 Bias

MCX GOLD

MCX SILVER

MCX CRUDE OIL

MCX COPPER

MCX NATURAL GAS

USD-INR

The Compass …Direction at a glance

Interweek strategy: Buy on dips between 33451-33601 zone, targeting 33901 and then at 34300 and then finally at 34751-35001 zone with stop at 33201.

Interweek strategy: Buy on dips between 40075-40125 targeting 41700 mark and then aggressive targets at 42100-42200 zone with stop at 39650.

Interweek strategy: Buy between 4021-4044 zone, targeting 4111 mark and then aggressive targets at 4250-4315 zone with stop at 3910.

Interweek strategy: Establish buy positions between 441-445 zone, targeting 457 mark and then aggressive targets at 469-475 zone with stop at 433.

Natural Gas prices seen at oversold conditions. Support now seen at 175-181 zone. Interweek strategy: Establish long positions at CMP, targeting 201 and then at 221-225 zone with stop at 173.

Technically, USD/INR faces major hurdles at 72.50. Support now seen at 70.45. Major strength seen above 72.50. Interweek Strategy: Aggressive traders can look to buy only on dips between 70.75-70.91 zone, targeting 71.51 and then aggressive targets at 72.50 with stop below 69.71.

33474 33451 32901 33901 34300 Positive

40182 39989 38451 41698 42200 Positive

4055 3910 3631 4111 4311 Positive

455 442 421 452 475 Neutral

191.20 175.00 165.00 201.00 225.00 Neutral

71.27 70.45 69.75 71.51 72.50 Neutral

MCX Crude-Oil: Bias continues to be positive. Initial target at 4111.


Instrument TRADING STRATEGYLTP S1 S2 R1 R2

GOLD $

SILVER ($)

WTI CRUDE OIL ($ )

EUR/USD

Bias

DOW JONES

US Dollar Index

The Navigator …Sailing global trend

Gold is a buy on dip opportunity. Key support at 1305.

Profit booking was theme in Thursday's trade. Positive bias as long as 1305 support is held. Hurdles now seen at 1331. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 1327-1331 zone, targeting 1351 and then at 1359-1368 zone with stop below 1311.

Hurdles now seen at 16.09. Confirmation of major strength only above 16.75. Interweek Strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 16.09 zone and then at 16.71-16.75 zone with stop below 15.45.

Positive bias to continue. Key support now at 51 zone. Interweek strategy: Establish buy positions between 53-55 zone, targeting, 57.50 and then finally at 59 zone with strict stop at 52.05.

EUR/USD faces major hurdles at 1.1545. Major weakness seen only below 1.1251. Buying advised only above 1.1545 mark.

U.S Dollar index faces hurdles at 97.50. Downside well supported at 95. Major weakness now only below 92.75.

Wall Street struggled for direction in Thursday's trade amidst overbought technical conditions and as investors' focussed on another round of U.S.-China trade talks which began at Washington. A big chunk of gains for global markets have been credited to optimism over the trade negotiations. The bias continues to be neutral. Hurdles at 27100

1331 1327 1305 1351 1568 Positive

15.84 15.45 14.91 16.09 16.75 Positive

56.84 52.45 49 57.5 59 Positive

1.1329 1.1251 1.1100 1.1545 1.1777 Neutral

96.63 95.00 92.75 97.50 100.00 Positive

25903 24411 23801 25751 27100 Neutral

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Moneylicious Capital & Advisory Services Pvt. Ltd.


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DISCLAIMER: This is solely for information of clients of and does not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by you on the basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and

, its subsidiaries or its employees or associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained in this recommendation, but or any of its subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information.

Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels. It is used to forecast future price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to fundamental analysis and news sources. The recommendations issued herewith might be contrary to recommendations issued by in the company research undertaken as the recommendations stated in this report is derived purely from technical analysis. has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been prepared for informational purposes. The recommendations and suggested price levels are intended purely for trading purposes. The recommendations are valid for the day of the report however trading trends and volumes might vary substantially on an intraday basis and the recommendations may be subject to change. The information and any disclosures provided herein may be considered confidential. Any use, distribution, modification, copying, forwarding or disclosure by any person is strictly prohibited. The information and any disclosures provided herein do not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be unaudited. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. There can be no assurance that investments will achieve any targeted rates of return, and there is no guarantee against the loss of your entire investment.

POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE (as on date of report)Disclosure of interest statement – • Analyst interest of the stock /Instrument(s): - No. • Firm interest of the stock / Instrument (s): - No.


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Daily Research Reports - Moneylicious · 1.Bears can hang on their hopes as rising crude oil prices are the negative catalysts for our markets. 2.Bears can also hang on their hopes