DAILY REPORT - Banca Intesa104.9377 104.5586 0.36% 1.50% 1.1075 1.1084 -0.08% -1.78% 106.2734 106.1327 0.13% 1.23% 0.9036 0.8997 0.43% -2.77% 130.3067 130.8581 -0.42% -0.67% 1.2407

Source: Daily FX

Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD

117.7191 117.7330 -0.01% -0.40% 1.1211 1.1258 -0.42% -2.25%

104.9377 104.5586 0.36% 1.50% 1.1075 1.1084 -0.08% -1.78%

106.2734 106.1327 0.13% 1.23% 0.9036 0.8997 0.43% -2.77%

130.3067 130.8581 -0.42% -0.67% 1.2407 1.2517 -0.88% -1.32%Source: NBS 108.2500 107.9100 0.32% 0.52%

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Value Next decision Value

2.75% 8.8.2019 0.00%

Deposit facility 1.50% 2.50%

Lending facility 4.00% 0.75%

Repo operations (one week) 1.75% -0.75%

Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg

16.7.2019 15.7.2019 Change (bps) 16.7.2019 15.7.2019 Change(bps)

1.61% 1.62% -0.01 -0.370% -0.368% -0.002

2.32% 2.33% -0.01 -0.395% -0.393% -0.002

2.65% 2.66% -0.01 -0.367% -0.363% -0.004

2.79% 2.80% -0.01 -0.350% -0.343% -0.007

Source: Reuters Source: Bloomberg, EBF

Note: Values are with 1 day delay Note: Values are with 1 day delay

Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps)

2.300% 2.314% -0.014 -0.346% -0.362% 0.016

2.300% 2.303% -0.004 -0.193% -0.213% 0.020

2.207% 2.217% -0.010 0.250% 0.218% 0.032

-0.814% -0.810% -0.004 1.840% 1.839% 0.001

-0.748% -0.747% -0.002 1.840% 1.863% -0.023

-0.715% -0.713% -0.003 2.038% 2.068% -0.030

Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING


Libor 3M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING



BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR6M

Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap


BEONIA EONIA

BELIBOR1M EURIBOR1M

BELIBOR3M EURIBOR3M

United Kingdom (BOE) 1.8.2019

Switzerland (SNB) 19.9.2019

Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe

Next decision

Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 25.7.2019

US (FED) 31.7.2019

GBP/RSD GBP/USD

USD/JPY

National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates

EUR/RSD EUR/USD

USD/RSD EUR/CHF

CHF/RSD EUR/GBP

FX rates and money market

FX rates on domestic market International markets

Currency Currency

Key events

TimeCountry/

RegionEvent Period Previous Forecast

Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD 41,1mln (EUR 0,3mln). No bonds trading.

Euro lost 0.4% against dollar. Trading at $1,12.

U.S. equities fell. S&P 500 falls 0.3%, Dow Jones down 0.1%, Nasdaq Composite down 0.4%.

European stocks rose. FTSE 100 up 0.6%, DAX up 0.4%, CAC 40 up 0.65%.

Oil down (WTI $57,6; Brent $64,4).

Gold down ($1406).

Financial Market Analysis

Treausury and ALM department

DAILY REPORT

Flash

Dinar marginally changed against euro (117,7191).

Bank of the Group

July 17, 2019

1.11

1.115

1.12

1.125

1.13

1.135

1.14

1.145

1.15EUR/USD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

117

118

119

120

121

122EUR mio EUR/RSD

Turnover on FX market (right axis)

http://www.bancaintesa.rs/code/navigate.aspx?Id=1

Date Currency

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Moody's S&P Fitch

Ba3 BB BB

Outlook Stable Positive Stable

Date 17.3.2017 14.12.2018 15.12.2017 Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan

Source: Bloomberg

Date Value Previous Date Value Previous

04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 21.05.2018 0.45% 0.47%

02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 27.05.2019 0.84% 1.00%

07.02.2017 3.48% 3.49% 18.06.2019 1.15% 1.23%

24.10.2017 4.05% 4.65% 20.06.2019 1.48% 1.68%

11.06.2019 3.39% 3.63% 11.06.2018 2.50%

05.02.2019 4.00% 3.74% 16.01.2019 3.25% 3.50%

09.07.2019 3.59% 4.37% 06.02.2019 3.60% 4.20%

07.08.2018 4.80% 4.85% Source: Public Debt Management Agency

23.06.2016NBS key rate +

0.25%

NBS key rate +

0.25%

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public debt Management Agency

Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa

Vrednost Prethodna UST spred

Serbia 7y 2020 2.868% 2.862% 0.813%

Serbia 10y 2021 2.704% 2.678% 2.704%

Srbija 10g 2029 1.506% 1.518%Source: Bloomberg

Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

7 years

10 years

24 month amortizing

Serbian Eurobonds yields (USD)

15 years

2 years 5 years

3 years 7 years

5 years 10 years

Maturity

3 months 53 weeks

6 months 2 years

53 weeks 3 years

Maturity

RSD Government securities EUR Government securities

Instrument Value

No scheduled auctions for today

Serbia Credit rating

Fixed income

Scheduled auctions

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

bps JP Morgan EMBI Srbija

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

4.7

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

Serbian 10y Eurobond 2021

Price Yield (right axis)

1.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5

10.511.512.513.514.5

Yields on RSD government securities primary auctions

3m 6m 53w 2y 3y NBS key rate 5y 7y 10y

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0

Yields on EUR government securities primary auctions

53w 2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 15y

2

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Sourc: Bloomberg

KMBN 3,300 33,000,000 -2.94% -2.68% 0.80 13.31 6.61

NIIS 680 4,517,240 0.00% -0.44% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

FITO 2,801 327,717 0.00% 0.04% 1.61 9.74 17.60

IRTL 680 190,400 7.59% 7.59% 0.41 7.49 5.42

TLKB 10,000 110,000 0.00% 0.00% 0.76 #N/A N/A -31.91

ENHL 645 87,075 0.62% -0.77% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

SVRL 560 84,560 0.00% -5.08% 0.79 173.96 0.46

AERO 896 31,360 2.40% 5.66% 1.23 8.99 14.52

Sources: Belgrade Stock Exchange; Bloombeg

0.52%

-1.64%

-0.22%

-0.21%

0.48%

Source: Bloomberg

crobex sbi20


sofix bet-c

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg


dj balkan

Source: Bloomberg

DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan 466.28 464.05 -0.97%

SOFIX Bugarska 578.55 579.84 -14.60%

BET Rumunija 9,126.50 9,145.28 17.70%

Crobex Hrvatska 1,901.20 1,891.36 3.17%

SBITOP Slovenija 868.94 883.42 7.74%

Regional stock exchanges

Index Country/Region ValueValue from the previous

dayChange YTD

SVRLJIG AD SVRLJIG 530,920,880 Din.

AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO 31,383,411,584 Din.

IRITEL AD BEOGRAD 197,270,720 Din.

TELEFONKABL AD 323,000,000 Din.

ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BEO 7,050,683,340 Din.

KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGRA 55,499,254,800 Din.

NIS AD NOVI SAD 110,881,072,000 Din.

GALENIKA FITOFARMACIJA AD 7,394,640,000 Din.

P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization

The most traded stocks on Belgrade Stock Exchange from the previous day

Company Ticker Price RSDTurnovor

RSD

Daily

change

Weekly

change

Ratios P / B P / EBelex15 0,62 2,66

Turnover 41,127,759 RSD 32,770,232 RSD 25.50%Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

349,331 € 278,335 € 25.51%

Belex 15 757.57 759.37 -0.24% -0.30%

Belex line 1,582.64 1,583.38 -0.05% -0.38%

Belgrade Stock Exchange

Value Previous value Change YTD

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

1,900

1,950

CROBEX

500

550

600

650

700

750

SOFIX

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

BET

300

400

500

600DJ Stoxx Balkan 50

650

670

690

710

730

750

770

790 Belex 15

-2.94%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.62%

2.40%

KMBN NIIS TGAS MTLC FITO JESV ALFA ENHL AERO

Daily change of Belex 15 members

1,400

1,600

1,800Belex line

700

750

800

850

900

950

SBITOP

3

Source: Bloomberg

dow jones s&p



nasdaq dax



nikkei dj stoxx





Source: Bloomberg

Snežana Topalović 201-1400 Snežana Spasojević 201-3621Vladimir Gavović 201-1263 Dragomir Milin 201-3622Nikolina Guteša 201-1400 Biljana Radosavljević [email protected] [email protected]

Darko Karanović 201-3624

Boban Todorović 201-3627Dragan Ignja 201-3626

[email protected]

ContactFinancial Market analysis Customer execution office (fixed income)

Dealing

Disclaimer

This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data.

Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in

Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be

reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.

Nikkei 225 Japan 21,535.25 21,685.90 -0.69% -5.40%

Dow Jones Stoxx 600 EU 389.10 387.75 0.35% -0.02%

FTSE UK 7,577.20 7,531.72 0.60% -1.44%

DAX Germany 12,430.97 12,387.34 0.35% -3.77%

NASDAQ US 8,222.80 8,258.19 -0.43% 19.11%

S&P 500 US 3,004.04 3,014.30 -0.34% 12.36%

Dow Jones Industrial US 27,335.63 27,359.16 -0.09% 10.58%

Index Country/Region Value Previous value Change YTD

World stock exchanges

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000Dow Jones Industrial

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

S&P 500

5,800

6,000

6,200

6,400

6,600

6,800

7,000

7,200

7,400

7,600

7,800

8,000

8,200

8,400NASDAQ Composite

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410DJ Stoxx 600

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

Nikkei 225

\

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000DAX

35

45

55

65

75

85

95Oil Brent (USD/bbl)

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450Gold

\

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40 Vix Index

4

http://www.bancaintesa.rs/

Documents

DAILY REPORT - Banca Intesa104.9377 104.5586 0.36% 1.50% 1.1075 1.1084 -0.08% -1.78% 106.2734 106.1327 0.13% 1.23% 0.9036 0.8997 0.43% -2.77% 130.3067 130.8581 -0.42% -0.67% 1.2407